40-pip weekly range 0.5580–0.5619, price in upper half after Tuesday reversal.
Monday faded from the 0.5619 week high through London and NY. Tuesday's Asian dip to the 0.5580 week low briefly undercut last Thursday's 0.5582 low, then reversed. The Tuesday rally climbed through London into the NY open back toward 0.5618, a move the digest frames as USD position-squaring ahead of US CPI rather than Kiwi demand. Wednesday's open dipped to the 0.5600 round number near the 38.2% retracement and recovered; price now sits marginally above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 0.5609, 0.5600, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.56192, 0.56265
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5619 week high opens the 0.5626 prior high, the cap that has halted recoveries this month
Failure to hold the 0.5600 round number and 38.2% of the Tuesday rally exposes the 0.5580 week low
Repeated H1 closes below EMA(20) would return the read to mid-range chop
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
22:03 UTC
Range, rebound stalling at week high · RSI 58 · price 0.56083
0.5580–0.5626 range; Tuesday higher lows into equal highs near 0.5618.
Monday faded from an early 0.5619 week high through London and NY hours to 0.5583 as the USD stayed bid. Tuesday's Asia session dipped to a 0.5580 week low, a false break of Monday's low, then climbed through London and NY to 0.5618 on the softer dollar and oil. That leaves equal highs capping just under the week high. Price sits marginally above the ema20 (0.5607) and EMA(50) near 0.5603 with RSI(14) near 58. The rollover dip to 0.5600 held near the week open and 38.2% retracement of Tuesday's rally.
Support: 0.5607, 0.56033, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.56192, 0.56265
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.5619 week high opens the 0.5626 prior high and 0.5630 cap
Failure to hold the week open at 0.5603 (38.2% of Tuesday's rally) re-exposes the 0.5580 week low
Loss of the ema20 at 0.5607 would signal Tuesday's rebound is stalling within the range
Breman speech Thu 17:15 UTC is a second catalyst for RBNZ repricing
0.5580–0.5627 range; Tuesday rebound stalling under week high.
Monday's slide from the 0.5619 week high ran through the London-NY transition and ended in a dip to a 0.5580 week low during Asia. That dip briefly undercut Thursday's 0.5582 low before reversing, a false break. A softer USD and lower oil then lifted the pair about 38 pips through London into the NY open, and it now sits above EMA(20) near 0.5608. Since the first hour of NY, price has compressed in a 0.5608–0.5618 band just under the week high, with RSI(14) easing from the high 60s toward the low 60s and the range intact below the prior high at 0.5627.
Support: 0.56077, 0.5600, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.56192, 0.56265
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5619 week high opens the prior high at 0.5627 and the 0.5630 recovery cap
Loss of ema20 near 0.5608 and then the 0.5600 round number would put the Tuesday rebound near its 50% fib retracement (~0.5599)
A return to the 0.5580 week low after the false break would reopen the 18-month low
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
0.5580–0.5627 range; Tuesday higher lows off week low, now stalling under Monday high.
NZDUSD has fully reversed Monday's NY-session slide. It rallied from the 0.5580 week low in the Asia session and extended through London and NY on Tuesday as the USD pulled back from its highs and oil eased. Price now sits just under the 0.5619 Monday high with RSI(14) in the mid-60s, holding above ema20 near 0.5607 but drifting sideways below the steep Tuesday rally trendline. The 0.5580–0.5627 range remains intact: the twin lows at 0.5580–0.5582 form a tentative double bottom, capped by the Friday high at 0.5627.
Support: 0.5607, 0.5603, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5619, 0.5627
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5619 monday high exposes the 0.5627 friday high and the 0.5622–0.5630 cap; a close above 0.5627 would confirm the double bottom
Loss of ema20 (~0.5607) and the weekly open at 0.5603, which aligns with the 38.2% of the Tuesday rally fib, returns price to mid-range
A break below the 0.5580 week low invalidates the double-bottom read and opens 0.5555
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core 0.2% m/m f/c) could materially shift this read; RBNZ's Breman speaks Thu 17:15 UTC
0.5580–0.5627 range; higher lows since Tuesday's Asia low.
Tuesday's Asia session dipped below Thursday's 0.5582 low to a 0.5580 week low, then reversed. Price climbed ~38 pips through Asia and London as the USD eased with lower yields and crude, and RSI(14) pushed to ~71. Price now holds above EMA(20) near 0.5607 and EMA(50) near the 0.5603 weekly open, but NY hours have stalled in a 0.5608–0.5618 band just under the 0.5619 monday high.
Support: 0.5607, 0.56033, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.56192, 0.56265, 0.5630
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5619 monday high exposes the 0.5627 friday high and the 0.5630 range cap
Loss of the Tuesday rally line and ema20 near 0.5607 puts the weekly open and 38.2% fib at 0.5603 in focus
A move back below the 0.5580 week low would invalidate the false break read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
RBNZ's Breman Thu 17:15 UTC is a second NZD-side risk to the range
18:03 UTC
Recovery leg inside a weekly range, momentum flattening · RSI 66 · price 0.56128
Tuesday's recovery started from the 0.5580 week low, a marginal false break of last Thursday's 0.5582 low. It climbed steadily through Asia and London, reclaiming the weekly open at 0.5603 as the USD eased with softer yields and oil. Price holds above EMA(20) and EMA(50) but stalled below Monday's 0.5619 week high during NY hours, extending a series of lower highs from Friday's 0.5627 prior high, with RSI(14) flattening in the mid-60s.
Support: 0.5603, 0.5600, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5619, 0.5627, 0.5630
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5619 week high breaks the lower highs and exposes the 0.5627 prior high and the 0.5630 recovery cap
Loss of the weekly open at 0.5603 and the 0.5600 round number would unwind most of Tuesday's recovery and return focus to the 0.5580 week low
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; RBNZ's Breman Thu 17:15 UTC adds NZD event risk
Lower highs from Friday; Tuesday rally recovered Monday's slide.
Monday's London-to-NY slide ended in a false break of the 0.5580 floor during Tuesday's Asian session, at the 0.55796 week low. Price then recovered the whole move as USD eased with softer Treasury yields. The rally stalled at the 0.56169 tuesday high, just under the 0.56192 monday high, which extends the lower highs from the 0.56265 friday high. Price holds above the EMA(20) near 0.5605 and the 0.5603 weekly open, but RSI(14) has cooled to ~65 since the NY-open push and the last bars are edging under Tuesday's rising line.
Support: 0.56048, 0.56033, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.56169, 0.56192, 0.56265
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5603 weekly open / ema20 area exposes the 50% fib of Tuesday's rally near 0.5598
Close above the 0.56192 monday high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 0.56265 friday high and the 0.5630 range cap in view
Loss of the 0.55796 week low would confirm a break of the 0.5580 floor
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) and Fed's Bowman could materially shift this read
RBNZ Breman speech Thu 17:15 UTC is a kiwi-specific risk for the range
16:03 UTC
Range-bound, rebounding toward range top · RSI 69 · price 0.56145
V-recovery from 0.5580 beneath a sequence of lower highs.
Tuesday's Asia-session dip to the 0.5580 week low briefly undercut last week's 0.5582 trough before reversing. London and the NY open then carried the Tuesday rebound back through nearly all of Monday's slide as USD eased with softer yields and oil. Price holds above EMA(20) and the weekly open near 0.5604 with RSI(14) near 69, but sits under a line of lower highs running from last Friday's 0.5627 prior high through Monday's 0.5619 week high.
Support: 0.56035, 0.55983, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.56192, 0.56265
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5619 week high puts the 0.5627 prior high and the lower-highs line under test
Loss of the weekly open / EMA(20) near 0.5604 shifts focus to the 50% fib of Tuesday's rebound at 0.5598
Break below the 0.5580 week low would invalidate the false break and signal a range break lower
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; RBNZ Breman follows Thu
0.5580–0.5627 range; Tuesday's rally into a lower-highs line.
Tuesday has erased Monday's oil-driven slide, which ran through London and NY. The rebound came off the 0.5580 week low, the second hold of that floor after last Thursday's 0.5582. It gained ground through Asia and London as yields and oil eased, lifting price back above EMA(20) and the 0.5603 weekly open, which sits near the 38.2% fib of the move, with RSI(14) near 69. The first hour of NY probed 0.5617 and slipped to the 0.5608 NY dip low before recovering, but highs keep stepping lower from Friday's 0.5627 range top to Monday's 0.5619 week high.
Support: 0.56077, 0.56033, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.56192, 0.56265
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 0.5619 week high and the lower-highs line puts the 0.5627 range top in play
Loss of the 0.5608 NY dip low and the Tuesday rising line returns focus to the weekly open / EMA(20) near 0.5603
Failure to hold the 0.5603 weekly open (38.2% fib) undoes most of Tuesday's rebound
A break of the 0.5580 week low invalidates the double bottom and the range read
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core m/m vs 0.2%) could materially shift this read, with Bowman and the Beige Book also on Wednesday
RBNZ Breman speech Thu 17:15 UTC is a NZD-specific risk
Lower highs from 0.5627 inside a 0.5580–0.5627 range; Tuesday higher lows off 0.5580.
NZDUSD gapped lower at Monday's open and slid through London and NY toward the 0.5580 week low as oil-driven risk-off and long-end US yields kept USD bid, briefly undercutting last Thursday's low before recovering. Tuesday's rebound from the Asia low ran through London as USD eased off its 18-month high, reclaiming the week open and EMA(20) with RSI(14) peaking near 68. The first hour of NY printed a rejection at the 0.5617 session high just under the 0.5619 week high and slipped beneath the rising line, leaving the 50% fib of the Tuesday rally at 0.5598 below the week open.
Support: 0.5603, 0.55983, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.56169, 0.56192, 0.56265
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5619 week high opens the 0.5627 prior high, the range top capping since last Friday
Failure to hold the 0.5603 week open and EMA(20) exposes the 50% fib at 0.5598 and confirms the rising line break
A break below the 0.5580 week low would mark a lower-low beneath the range floor
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; RBNZ Breman Thu 17:15 UTC is the NZD-side risk
13:04 UTC
Range-bound, sharp rebound from range floor · RSI 71 · price 0.5612
0.5580–0.5627 range; higher lows today, lower highs since Friday.
Monday's London and NY sessions ground lower from the 0.5619 Monday high to a week low near 0.5580 in early Asia today, a rejection at the same range floor tested last Thursday. Today's rally has stacked higher lows through Asia and London as USD eased on softer yields and oil, reclaiming the weekly open at 0.5603 and EMA(20) near 0.5600, with RSI(14) pushing into the low 70s. Price is pausing just under the 0.5615 session high, with the Monday high and the 0.5627 range top capping a line of lower highs since Friday.
Support: 0.5603, 0.5600, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5615, 0.5619, 0.5627
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
H1 close above 0.5627 range top breaks the lower highs line and the range read
Loss of the weekly open and EMA(20) at 0.5600–0.5603 returns focus to the 0.5580 range floor
Break of today's rally trendline of higher lows would signal the rebound is stalling
RSI(14) holding above 70 into the session high would leave the rebound stretched against the Monday high
0.5580–0.5627 range; lower highs since Friday, higher lows since Tuesday's low.
Monday's slide from the 0.56192 monday high ran through London and into the first hours of NY, and Tuesday's Asia low at 0.55796 tagged the 0.5580 floor. Since then a steady sequence of higher lows has carried price back above the weekly open at 0.56033 and the ema20 near 0.5600, with the move tracking a softer USD as yields and oil eased. Price now sits just under the lower-highs line from Friday's 0.56265 high, past the 61.8% of the fri-tue drop, with RSI(14) near 71 after a near-unbroken run of up bars.
Support: 0.56033, 0.5600, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.56192, 0.56265
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.56192 monday high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 0.56265 friday high in play
A break of the Tuesday higher-lows line and a slip back below the weekly open would turn the rebound into a lower high
Failure to hold the ema20 near 0.5600 returns focus to the 0.5580 floor
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; core m/m versus the 0.2% forecast is the key detail
RBNZ Gov. Breman speech Thu 17:15 UTC is a kiwi-specific risk to the range
0.5580–0.5627 range; lower highs above, double low at 0.5580.
NZDUSD has rotated inside a 0.5580–0.5627 range across the window. Monday's slide from the 0.5619 monday high ran through London and NY on oil-driven risk aversion, then found a floor at the 0.5580 weekly low in early Asia Tuesday, a few points under Thursday's low. The rebound on a softer USD has reclaimed EMA(20) and the weekly open and is testing the 78.6% level of the Monday drop fib near 0.5611, with RSI(14) near 65, while the lower-high line from the 0.5627 prior high sits just overhead.
Support: 0.56033, 0.5598, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.56128, 0.56192, 0.56265
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5613 prior close and the lower-high line opens the 0.5619 monday high and 0.5627 prior high
Break of the rebound line and a slip back under the 0.5603 weekly open and EMA(20) near 0.5598 would return focus to the 0.5580 weekly low
Failure to hold 0.5580 confirms a lower low beneath Thursday's low
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
0.5580–0.5627 range; V-shaped recovery with higher lows since Tuesday Asia.
Monday's London and NY sessions drove a 40-pip slide from the 0.5619 week high to the 0.5580 week low. That briefly undercut last Thursday's 0.5581 low, a false break, before buyers stepped in at the Asia open. Tuesday's Asian and London sessions have since retraced beyond the 61.8% fib of that leg as the USD eased with yields and oil. Price is back above the 0.5603 weekly open and EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 68 and the 0.5627 prior high still capping recoveries in this window.
Support: 0.56033, 0.5597, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.56192, 0.56265
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5619 week high, through the 78.6% fib near 0.5611, puts the 0.5627 prior high back in play
Loss of the 0.5603 weekly open and EMA(20) near 0.5597 returns price to the lower half of the range
A break of Tuesday's rising line exposes the 0.5580 week low again
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot core print risks a retest of the week low
09:05 UTC
Range-bound, rebounding from range floor · RSI 63 · price 0.56037
0.5580–0.5627 range; lower highs since Friday, higher lows on Tuesday.
Monday's slide from the 0.5619 monday high came through London and NY hours as firmer oil and Middle East risk aversion weighed. It extended into an Asia-session dip to the 0.5580 swing low, which undercut last week's 0.5582 low before being reclaimed. Tuesday's rebound, as yields and oil eased, has lifted price back above EMA(20) to the weekly open at 0.5603, level with the 61.8% retrace of Monday's decline, with RSI(14) near 63. The prior high at 0.5627 remains the range top.
Support: 0.56033, 0.55948, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.56055, 0.56192, 0.56265
What it said to watch
H1 close above today high 0.5606 and the 61.8% retrace opens the path to the monday high at 0.5619
Prior high at 0.5627 is the range top that has capped bounces; an area to watch for rejection or break
Loss of the weekly open and ema20 near 0.5595 breaks the Tuesday higher lows and puts the 0.5580 swing low back in focus
An H1 close below the 0.5580 swing low confirms a lower-low and ends the false break read
US CPI Wed 14 Oct 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Monday's London-into-NY selling took the pair from the 0.5619 monday high to the 0.5583 monday low as oil-driven risk aversion kept the USD bid. Tuesday's Asia session briefly undercut Thursday's low to a 0.5580 week low, then reversed on higher lows into London, reclaiming the ema20 near 0.5594 and returning to the 0.5603 weekly open, between the 50% and 61.8% retracements of Monday's drop. RSI(14) has recovered to about 58, but the four-day picture remains a 0.5580–0.5627 range, with lower highs from Friday's prior high still intact.
Support: 0.5594, 0.5583, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5603, 0.5619, 0.5627
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the ema20 at 0.5594 would break the Tuesday higher lows and undercut the rebound
Failure to hold the 0.5580 week low (Nov 2025 low) breaks the range floor
Hourly close above the 0.5619 monday high breaks the lower-highs line; the 0.5627 prior high has capped bounces
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
0.5580–0.5627 range; Asian rebound off week low to mid-range.
The week opened at 0.5603 and stalled at the 0.5619 monday high. Price then ground lower through Monday's London and NY sessions to 0.5583 as oil-led risk aversion and firm US yields weighed on the Kiwi. Tuesday's Asian session briefly undercut last week's 0.5582 low to set a week low at 0.5580, then reversed back above the ema20 and lifted price to the 50% retracement of Monday's drop near 0.5600, with RSI(14) back in the mid-50s. The broader picture is a 0.5580–0.5627 range, with a lower-highs line running from Thursday's range top.
Support: 0.5593, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5603, 0.5619, 0.5627
What it said to watch
H1 close above the weekly open at 0.5603 (61.8% retracement) would break Monday's lower-high sequence and bring the 0.5619 monday high back into play
Loss of the ema20 near 0.5593 followed by a close below the 0.5580 week low would end the range read
The range top at 0.5627 has capped every rebound since Thursday; a close above it changes the structure
Waller today 07:45 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:05 UTC
Range-bound with lower highs, rebounding off the week low · RSI 54 · price 0.55964
0.5580–0.5627 range; lower highs since Friday, Asia bounce off the range floor.
Monday's Asia high at 0.5619 stalled below Friday's 0.5627 range top. London and then NY carried the pair through the weekly open at 0.5603 as oil-led risk aversion and a firm USD weighed, and the slide reached a 0.5580 week low early in Tuesday's Asia session. That dip briefly undercut last week's 0.5582 low before reversing as DXY took profits, and price is back above EMA(20) at 0.5592. It is now pressing EMA(50) near 0.5597, just above the 38.2% retrace of Monday's drop, with RSI(14) recovering from sub-30 to 54.
Support: 0.55923, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.56033, 0.56192, 0.56265
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5603 weekly open (61.8% of Monday's drop) would break the lower-highs sequence and expose the 0.5619 Monday high
Failure to hold the ema20 at 0.5592 returns focus to the 0.5580 week low; an H1 close below it confirms a break of the range floor
A close above the 0.5627 range top invalidates the lower-highs read
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC today and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday, false break below last week's low.
NZDUSD has printed lower highs since Monday's Asia-session peak at 0.5619 and slid through London into NY as oil-driven risk aversion and firm US yields weighed, leaving the weekly open at 0.5603 overhead. Tuesday's Asia session briefly undercut last week's 0.5582 low to set a 17m low at 0.5580, then reclaimed it. The rebound stalled at the asia high of 0.5595, the 38.2% retracement of the Mon-Tue drop, and price now sits just under a falling EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 0.55796
Resistance: 0.55946, 0.56033, 0.56265
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 17m low at 0.5580 would turn the false break into a fresh lower-low
Acceptance above the asia high at 0.5595 opens the 50% of the Mon-Tue drop at 0.5599 and the weekly open at 0.5603 (61.8%)
Prior high at 0.5626 caps last week's range; only a break there invalidates the lower-high sequence
Waller today 07:45 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read, with Breman Thu 17:15 UTC the NZD-side risk
04:04 UTC
Down from Monday's high, early-Tuesday bounce stalling · RSI 47 · price 0.55934
Lower highs inside the 0.5580–0.5627 range; floor near 0.5580 held.
The week opened at 0.5603 and printed a Monday high of 0.5619 in Asia. A London-led slide then extended in the NY session to 0.5583 as oil-driven risk aversion and a firmer USD weighed, extending the lower highs from Friday's 0.5627 peak. During Asia hours today price dipped 2 pips below last week's low to the 0.5580 17m low and snapped back. It is now holding just above EMA(20) at 0.5592 but stalling at the 38.2% fib near 0.5595, with EMA(50) at 0.5600 and the weekly open overhead, and RSI(14) back to ~47.
Support: 0.55915, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56033, 0.56192
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
An H1 close back below EMA(20) and then 0.5580 (17m low) would turn the false break into a fresh lower low
H1 closes above EMA(50) at 0.5600 and the 0.5603 weekly open would neutralise Monday's leg and put the Monday high at 0.5619 and the lower-highs line back in play
RBNZ Governor Breman Thu 17:15 UTC is the NZD-side risk to the range
03:04 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off lows · RSI 47 · price 0.55923
Lower highs from Friday's 0.5627; fresh lower low at 0.5580.
The week opened at 0.5603, and Monday's Asia-session high of 0.5619 stalled below Friday's 0.5627 prior high, extending the lower-high sequence. London and NY then drove a steady slide as oil-driven risk aversion and a firmer USD weighed. Tuesday's Asian range briefly undercut last Thursday's low to tag the 0.5580 17-month low before buyers stepped in, lifting price back to the EMA(20) near 0.5591 with RSI(14) recovering to the high-40s.
Support: 0.55913, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56033, 0.56265
What it said to watch
H1 closes back above the 0.5600 figure and the 0.5603 weekly open would neutralise Monday's slide and bring the lower-highs trendline near 0.5616 into view
Rejection near the 38.2% fib of the Mon high-Tue low move (~0.5595) keeps the bounce corrective within the downtrend
Failure to hold the 17m low at 0.5580 confirms a lower-low extension
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC today and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Thursday's 0.5627 peak; Tuesday's Asia dip retested the 0.5580 floor.
The week opened at 0.5603, below Friday's 0.5613 close. An Asia session push to the 0.5619 Monday high faded, and price slid steadily through London and NY as oil-driven risk aversion and a firm USD weighed. That leaves a sequence of lower highs from Thursday's 0.5627. Tuesday's Asian range briefly undercut the 0.5580 area to a 0.55796 week low, the 17-month floor, before snapping back toward 0.5589. Price is still capped below EMA(20) near 0.5591, and RSI(14) at about 36 is soft but not stretched.
Support: 0.55796, 0.5555
Resistance: 0.5591, 0.56033, 0.56192
What it said to watch
An hourly close back above the ema20 / lower-highs line near 0.5591 would ease the downtrend read; above that, the 0.5600 week open is next
Failure to hold the 0.5580 week low on a closing basis exposes the next level at 0.5555
Fed's Waller on Tue 07:45 UTC and US CPI on Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
RBNZ's Breman on Thu 17:15 UTC is the NZD-side risk to the structure
Lower highs since Monday's Asia high; marginal new low under last week's floor.
NZDUSD has faded from the 0.5619 monday high in a clean sequence of lower highs. Most of the slide came during London and NY hours, as oil-driven risk aversion and firm US yields lifted the USD, and price has held below the 0.5603 weekly open since the London open. Tuesday's Asian session printed a marginal new low at 0.55796, retesting the 17m low near 0.5580 that held twice last week. The asian high at 0.5589 and EMA(20) sit just overhead, and RSI(14) near 29 is in oversold territory.
Support: 0.5580, 0.5555
Resistance: 0.5589, 0.5603, 0.5619
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.5580 confirms a lower-low and opens the next level at 0.5555
Recovery above the 0.5589 asian high and the lower-high trendline weakens the downtrend read; 0.5603 weekly open is the next cap
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
RBNZ Breman speech (Thu 17:15 UTC) is a high-impact risk for the 17m low
00:03 UTC
Downtrend within range, momentum stalling at lows · RSI 30 · price 0.55869
Lower highs 0.5627 → 0.5619, basing just above week low.
Monday's Asia-session high at 0.5619 set a lower high under Friday's 0.5627. The pair then slid through London and into NY to 0.5583 as oil-driven risk aversion and a firm USD weighed on the kiwi. Since then price has flattened into a 4-5 pip drift just above Thursday's week low at 0.5582, with RSI(14) near 30 and EMA(20) rolled over at 0.5592, while the weekly open at 0.5603 sits near the 50% retrace of the Monday drop.
Support: 0.55815
Resistance: 0.5592, 0.56033, 0.56192
What it said to watch
H1 close below the week low at 0.5582 (and the 0.5580 17-month low) breaks the floor of last week's range
Recovery above EMA(20) at 0.5592 and the weekly open at 0.5603 would neutralise Monday's leg lower
A move through the monday high at 0.5619 and the lower highs trendline would revive the 0.5622-0.5630 range top
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
RBNZ Breman speech Thu 17:15 UTC is the NZD-side event risk