NZD/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Wednesday, 14 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:07 UTC
Range broken lower on CPI, corrective rebound · RSI 44 · price 0.55912
0.5580–0.5630 weekly range broken to the downside, bounce capped below EMA20.
NZD/USD held a 0.5580–0.5630 range from Monday's open. Wednesday's Asia-session push to the 0.5630 week high faded into a run of lower highs, and the hot 3.7% US CPI print then broke the range floor during NY hours, reaching a 0.5565 cpi low. The late-NY rebound has climbed back above 0.5580 to the 38.2% retracement of the CPI drop, but price still sits beneath ema20 (~0.5596) and the weekly open at 0.5603, with RSI(14) recovering to ~44 after the sell-off.
Support: 0.5580, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5596, 0.5603, 0.5630
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 0.5580 range floor confirms the break and reopens the cpi low at 0.5565
A reclaim of ema20 (~0.5596) and the weekly open at 0.5603, which lines up with the 61.8% fib of the CPI drop, would put price back inside the prior range
RBNZ Breman speech, Oct 15 17:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
US PPI and retail sales, Thu 12:30 GMT, carry risk of a second leg in either direction
Week range 0.5580-0.5630 broken lower; fresh week low, lower high pending.
After opening the week at 0.5603, the pair held a 0.5580-0.5630 range through Tuesday and early Wednesday, setting a week high at 0.5630 in the Asia session. The hot US CPI print (3.7% y/y, core 0.3% m/m) then drove a ~64-pip NY-session drop through Tuesday's broken low at 0.5580 to a fresh week low at 0.5565. Price now sits well below EMA(20) with RSI(14) oversold near 25, and the post-print bounces have stalled under the 38.2% fib near 0.5590.
Support: 0.55652, 0.5550
Resistance: 0.55796, 0.56033, 0.56295
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.5580 broken low would weaken the range-break read
Recovery through the 38.2% fib (~0.5590) toward the weekly open at 0.5603 (61.8%) would mark a deeper retracement
Failure to hold the 0.5565 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5550 round number
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 GMT today and RBNZ Breman speech Oct 15 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Thursday 12:30 GMT US Retail Sales and PPI are the next USD catalyst
0.5580-0.5630 range intact; post-CPI drop back to range floor.
Since the weekly open at 0.5603 the pair has held a 0.5580-0.5630 range. Tuesday's rally off the week low at 0.5580 reached the week high at 0.5630 in Wednesday's Asia session, and supply capped it there. The hot US core CPI (0.3% m/m vs 0.2%) drove a 47-pip drop in a single bar during NY hours. That move broke the rising support from Tuesday's low and pushed price back below EMA(20) near 0.5616, with RSI(14) falling to the mid-30s. Price now sits just above the cpi low at 0.5583, a level that matches Monday's lows.
Support: 0.55829, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.56033, 0.5616, 0.56295
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5580 week low (17-month low) breaks the range and opens fresh lows
Recovery above 0.5600-0.5603 (weekly open, 38.2% of the cpi drop fib) shifts the read back to range-middle chop
Reclaim of ema20 near 0.5616 and the 61.8% fib at 0.5612 would neutralise the CPI impulse
Fed's Bowman 14:55 GMT and Beige Book 18:00 GMT could extend or fade the CPI move
Thu US PPI/retail sales 12:30 GMT and RBNZ's Breman 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Tuesday inside 0.5580-0.5630 range; capped at range top.
NZDUSD slid through Monday's London and NY sessions to a 0.5580 week low early Tuesday, then rebounded on softer US yields and lower oil to a 0.5630 week high in Wednesday's Asian session, just above the 0.5627 Friday high. London has faded that test back to a 0.5611 London low near the 38.2% fib of the rebound, leaving price pinned at EMA(20) with RSI(14) back near 52. The higher-low trendline from the week low is still intact, with EMA(50) near 0.5611 underneath.
Support: 0.56112, 0.56033, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.56163, 0.56265, 0.56295
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT lands within the hour and could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 0.5611 London low and the higher-low trendline exposes the 0.5603 weekly open
Sustained trade above the 0.5627 Friday high and 0.5630 week high breaks the range top that has capped the week
Failure to hold the 0.5580 week low confirms a fresh lower-low at 17-month lows
RBNZ's Breman Thu 17:15 UTC is a second event risk for NZD
11:03 UTC
Rebound from week low, stalling at range cap · RSI 56 · price 0.56161
Higher lows since Tuesday; Wednesday lower highs below 0.5630.
NZDUSD climbed steadily from Tuesday's Asia-session week low at 0.5580 through London and NY, helped by softer US yields, cooler oil and Williams' dovish tilt. The pair then printed a week high at 0.5630 in Wednesday's Asia session, just above the Friday high at 0.5627, and was rejected at the 0.5580-0.5630 range cap. A run of Wednesday lower highs has since pulled price back onto EMA(20) near 0.5616 with RSI(14) easing to the mid-50s, just above the Asia base at 0.5612, which lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the Tuesday–Wednesday rally.
Support: 0.5612, 0.5603, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5627, 0.5630
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT today could materially shift this read. A hot core print puts the 0.5580 week low back in focus.
An H1 close below the asia base at 0.5612 opens the 50% retracement and the weekly open near 0.5603.
A sustained close above the 0.5630 week high breaks the range cap that has held all week.
RBNZ's Breman Thu 17:15 UTC could reprice October hike odds.
10:04 UTC
Rebound from week low, stalling under range top · RSI 55 · price 0.5618
Higher lows since Tuesday, lower highs since today's Asia peak.
Monday sold off from the 0.5603 weekly open to the 0.5580 week low early Tuesday. A two-day rally followed, built mostly through Tuesday's London and NY sessions and extended in today's Asia session to a 0.56295 week high, as softer US yields and oil eased the dollar. That push stalled just above last Friday's 0.56265 prior high, inside the 0.5620-0.5630 cap. Since London open the bars have printed lower highs and price has slipped back onto the rising EMA(20) near 0.5617, which sits close to the 23.6% retracement of the rally, with RSI(14) cooling to the mid-50s.
Support: 0.5617, 0.56033, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.56265, 0.56295
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT today is the main event risk and could materially shift this read in either direction
An H1 close above the 0.56295 week high and the 0.5630 cap would break the range top that has capped this week
Failure to hold the ema20 near 0.5617 exposes the 38.2% retracement at 0.5610 and then the 0.5603 weekly open
A return toward the 0.5580 week low would re-establish the broader range-bottom test
RBNZ's Breman speaks Thu 17:15 UTC; any shift in October hike odds could move NZD independently of USD
0.5580–0.5630 week range; lower highs off week high.
NZDUSD rebounded about 50 pips from Tuesday's Asia-session week low at 0.5580 as US yields and oil eased. Today's Asia push tagged the 0.5630 week high just above Friday's 0.5627 prior high, then faded through London with a sequence of lower highs. Price now sits on EMA(20) near 0.5617 inside the week range, with RSI(14) back in the mid-50s and the weekly open at 0.5603 the next reference below.
Support: 0.5617, 0.5603, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5627, 0.5630
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT today (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.5630 week high breaks the cap that has held since Friday's prior high
Loss of EMA(20) and the rebound line near 0.5612 exposes the weekly open at 0.5603 and the 38.2% rebound fib
Failure to hold 0.5603 reopens the 0.5580 week low
Lower highs persisting below 0.5627 keep the rejection from the week high intact
RBNZ's Breman Thu 17:15 UTC is the next NZD-specific risk
08:05 UTC
Short-term uptrend off the week low, stalling at range top · RSI 54 · price 0.56189
Higher lows since Tuesday's Asia low inside a 0.5580–0.5630 weekly range.
NZDUSD has recovered about 50 pips from Tuesday's Asia-session week low at 0.5580, building higher lows through Tuesday's London and NY sessions as easing US yields, softer oil and a dovish-leaning read of Fed's Williams trimmed the USD bid. Wednesday's Asia push printed a 0.5630 week high just above the 0.5626 Friday high, then saw a rejection. Price has drifted back onto EMA(20) and the higher-lows trendline near 0.5617, with RSI(14) cooled to about 54 and the 38.2% fib at 0.5610 and the weekly open at 0.5603 below.
Support: 0.5617, 0.5610, 0.56033
Resistance: 0.56265, 0.56295
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT today (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; core is the swing number for the range top at 0.5630
H1 close below EMA(20) and the higher-lows trendline near 0.5617 exposes the 38.2% fib at 0.5610
H1 close above the 0.5630 week high clears the cap that held at the Friday high and again in Wednesday's Asia session
Failure to hold the weekly open at 0.5603 puts the 0.5580 week low back in focus
07:04 UTC
Recovery leg off week low, stalling at range top · RSI 60 · price 0.56223
Higher lows from 0.5580, capped under 0.5630 range top.
The Kiwi has carved steady higher lows since Tuesday's Asia-session week low at 0.5580. Buyers stepped in again after Wednesday's rollover gap, and the Asia push printed a fresh week high at 0.56295 as US yields eased after Williams' remarks. Supply is capping at the 0.5627-0.5630 zone that includes last Friday's prior high, with price holding just above the H1 ema20 and RSI(14) near 60 rather than stretched.
Support: 0.5618, 0.56033, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.56265, 0.56295
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5630 week high breaks the range top that has held all week
Loss of the ema20 and the 38.2% fib near 0.5610 would put the weekly open at 0.5603 and the rising trendline back in play
Failure to hold the weekly open reopens the 0.5580 week low
US CPI at 12:30 GMT today could materially shift this read, with Bowman remarks and the Beige Book also on the slate
06:05 UTC
Recovery leg inside a range, momentum flattening · RSI 63 · price 0.56196
Higher lows off the 0.5580 week low, stalling at the 0.5626-0.5630 cap.
Monday's London and NY sessions pulled the pair from 0.5619 below the 0.56033 weekly open. The slide ended at a 0.55796 week low in Tuesday's Asian range, and price has carved steady higher lows since as softer US yields trimmed the USD bid. Wednesday's Asia session extended the move to a 0.56295 week high, just above last week's 0.56265 prior high. That is the 0.5626-0.5630 cap, and successive Asia-session highs at 0.56274 and 0.56268 slipped back from it. Price holds above EMA(20) near 0.5615 and EMA(50) near 0.5608, with RSI(14) easing to the low 60s off the highs.
Support: 0.56153, 0.56033, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.56265, 0.56295
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT today (core f/c 0.2% MoM) is the main event risk for this read; Bowman speaks at 09:40 GMT
An H1 close above the 0.56295 week high would break the 0.5626-0.5630 cap and the range top
Loss of EMA(20) and the higher-lows trendline near 0.5609 (38.2% of the Tuesday rally fib) would stall the recovery
A move back below the 0.56033 weekly open, close to the 50% retrace, returns focus to the 0.55796 week low
05:05 UTC
Short-term uptrend off week low, pressing the cap · RSI 65 · price 0.56267
Higher lows since Tuesday's Asia low; week high tagged at the 0.5626–0.5630 cap.
The pair has rebounded about 50 pips from Tuesday's Asia-session week low at 0.5580. London and NY built steady higher lows as US yields eased and the USD corrected from its 18-month high. Wednesday's Asia session cleared Tuesday's prior-day high at 0.5618 and printed a week high at 0.5630, right at the cap the digest flags as having repeatedly held rallies. The dip back to 0.5620 found demand, and price holds above EMA(20) (near 0.5618) with RSI(14) around 65.
Support: 0.56181, 0.56033, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.56295
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5630 week high would clear the cap that has repeatedly held rallies
Loss of the 0.5618 prior-day hi and EMA(20) shifts focus to the higher-low trendline and the week open at 0.5603, near the 50% of the rebound
Failure back below the 0.5580 week low would invalidate the rebound structure
US CPI at 12:30 GMT today (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; Bowman speaks at 09:40 GMT
04:04 UTC
Short-term rebound inside a broader range · RSI 61 · price 0.56221
Higher lows off 0.5580, stalling at range top.
The rebound from Tuesday's Asia-session week low at 0.5580 built through London and NY hours as US yields eased and the USD backed off its highs. Tuesday's NY session ran out of steam near 0.5617, and Wednesday's Asian range then extended to a 0.56295 week high, inside the 0.5626-0.5630 cap that has repeatedly held rallies. The latest bar shows rejection there, with price at 0.5622 above the ema20 near 0.5614 and RSI(14) around 61, short of overbought.
Support: 0.5614, 0.5603, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.56295
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT today could materially shift this read, with core m/m expected at 0.2%
An H1 close above the 0.56295 week high would break the 0.5630 range cap
Failure to hold the ema20 near 0.5614 and the higher-low line puts the weekly open at 0.5603 back in focus
A return toward the 0.5580 week low would reassert the range-low test
03:04 UTC
Two-day uptrend, testing weekly range top · RSI 68 · price 0.56259
Higher lows since Tuesday's 0.5580 low; price pressing the 0.5627-0.5630 range cap.
NZDUSD has printed higher lows since Tuesday's Asia-session week low at 0.5580. A London-into-NY rally Tuesday and a further push in today's Asia session lifted price to a 0.5627 week high, just under the 0.5630 range cap, as softer US yields and oil pulled the USD off Monday's highs. Price sits above EMA(20) near 0.5613 and the week open at 0.5603, with RSI(14) near 68 and follow-through thin ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.5613, 0.5603, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5627, 0.5630
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5630 range cap breaks the weekly range top
Rejection at the 0.5627 week high would leave the 0.5580-0.5630 range intact
A move back below ema20 at 0.5613 and the higher-lows trendline weakens the two-day uptrend
Loss of the week open at 0.5603, also the 50% retracement of the Tue-Wed rally, exposes the 0.5580 week low
US CPI at 12:30 UTC today; core m/m vs 0.2% could materially shift this read
02:03 UTC
Short-term uptrend since Tuesday, pressing range top · RSI 64 · price 0.56234
Higher lows off a 0.5580 double bottom, testing the 0.5626 prior high.
Monday faded from the weekly open at 0.5603 to the 0.5580 swing low, which held again in Tuesday's Asia session after last Thursday's test. From there the Tuesday rally ran through London and into the NY open as the USD eased off its 18-month high and oil softened. Today's Asia session extended the move to 0.5625, just under Friday's prior high at 0.5626 and the 0.5630 round number. Price sits above the ema20 near 0.5614 with RSI(14) at 64, short of overbought.
Support: 0.5614, 0.5603, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5626, 0.5630
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5626 prior high completes the double bottom and clears the 0.5630 round number cap
Rejection at 0.5626–0.5630 and a close back below the ema20 near 0.5614 returns the read to range
Loss of the weekly open at 0.5603 breaks the rising-lows trendline and the 50% retrace of the Tuesday rally
A return below the 0.5580 swing low voids the double bottom
US CPI at 12:30 UTC today (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read; RBNZ's Breman speaks Thu 17:15 UTC
Higher lows since Tuesday inside a 0.5580–0.5630 weekly range.
Tuesday's rebound from the 0.5580 swing low came as the USD eased off Monday's highs. It carried through London into NY and has extended in Wednesday's Asia session, with price back above EMA(20) and RSI(14) near 61. The pair now presses the Friday high at 0.5627, just under the 0.5630 range cap that has bounded the week, while Tuesday's high at 0.5617 is the first shelf beneath a higher-low line.
Support: 0.56169, 0.5612, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.56265, 0.5630
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5627 Friday high and the 0.5630 range cap breaks the weekly range read
Slip back below 0.5612 ema20 and the higher-low line returns price to the middle of the range
Failure to hold the 0.5580 swing low confirms a lower-low
US CPI today at 12:30 UTC, with the core print in focus, could materially shift this read
RBNZ Breman speaks Thu 17:15 UTC: a risk for RBNZ hike-odds repricing
0.5580–0.5627 range; higher low off Tuesday's low, lower highs at the top.
The week opened at 0.5603. Monday's push was rejected at the 0.5619 week high, and price slid through London and NY to a week low of 0.5580 in Tuesday's Asia session. The recovery that followed through London and NY tracked the USD pullback from Monday's highs and softer oil, lifting price back above EMA(20) and EMA(50) to 0.5613. A trendline support from Tuesday's low through the 0.5600 asia low dip at Wednesday's open is holding. Lower highs at 0.5627 (prior high) and 0.5619 still cap the top of the range, with RSI(14) holding the mid-50s and price sitting just under the 38.2% retrace of Tuesday's rally.
Support: 0.56002, 0.55796
Resistance: 0.56192, 0.56265
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.5619 week high puts the 0.5627 prior high and the falling resistance line into play
Failure to hold the 0.5600 asia low and trendline support reopens the 0.5580 week low
RBNZ Governor Breman speaks Thu 17:15 UTC, a risk for NZD-side repricing