Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3759 swing; 1.42 breakout retested.
USDCAD has printed higher highs and higher lows for three weeks off the 1.3759 swing, with EMA20 holding above EMA50 and dips riding a rising trendline from the 1.3978 low. The US payrolls miss knocked price to an nfp low of 1.4201, near the 61.8% of the pullback fib from the 1.4155 swing low, but demand stepped in and the bar closed at 1.4254, just under the 1.4262 swing high. ATR(14) near 27 pips is steady rather than compressed, consistent with a trend that is grinding rather than coiling.
Support: 1.4201, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4262 swing high extends the higher-high sequence and brings the 1.4300 round number into view
Break below the 1.4201 nfp low and the rising trendline near 1.4195 would expose the 1.4155 swing low
Loss of the 1.4155 swing low breaks the higher-low structure
US ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC) and the Canada LFS (Fri Oct 9) could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows; tight consolidation below the 1.4262 cycle high.
Higher highs and higher lows have held since the 1.3759 low early in the window. The advance tracks a rising trendline with three tests, most recently the 1.4154 pce low after the soft US core PCE print. Price is now compressing in a 1.4209–1.4262 band just above the 1.4200 break, and the bar spanning the dovish NFP miss stayed inside it while the swing low held. ATR(14) near 25 pips shows a steady rather than expanding regime, with EMA20 still above EMA50 and both below price.
Support: 1.4209, 1.4154, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4262 cycle high extends the higher-high sequence toward the 1.4300 round number
Close below the 1.4209 swing low puts the rising trendline near 1.4190 under test
Loss of the 1.4154 pce low breaks the higher-low structure and exposes the fib 38.2 at 1.4070
Post-NFP USD repricing, ISM Services (Mon), FOMC Minutes (Oct 7) and Canada jobs (Oct 9) could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3759 low.
Higher-high, higher-low sequence intact since the 1.3759 low in early September, driven by a widening US-Canada yield gap and softer oil. Wednesday's dip on the US core PCE miss held the 1.4154 swing low, which sits at the 38.2% retracement and on the rising trendline, before a new swing high at 1.4262. Price is now easing to the 1.4209 recent low ahead of NFP, still above EMA20 and EMA50, with ATR steady near 23 pips rather than compressing.
Support: 1.4209, 1.4154, 1.4120
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.4300
What it said to watch
US NFP today at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; the CAD digest flags a two-sided reaction with USDCAD overbought
H4 close below the 1.4209 recent low exposes the rising trendline near 1.4188 and the 1.4154 swing low
Failure to hold the 1.4154 swing low (38.2% fib) breaks the higher-low sequence, with the fib 50% at 1.4120 next
H4 close above the 1.4262 swing high resumes the higher-high sequence and opens the 1.4300 round number
05:04 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from high · RSI 56 · price 1.42117
Higher-high, higher-low structure has held since the 1.3759 early-month low. The eight-day climb, driven by Fed-BoC divergence and soft oil, topped at the 1.4262 swing high. Price has eased back toward the 1.4200 prior high, the old range cap that broke Tuesday, and is sitting on EMA20 with RSI cooled to the mid-50s. ATR(14) near 23 pips shows no expansion, and the rising trendline from the 1.3978 low (now near 1.4185) sits just under the 1.4154 swing low, which also aligns with the 38.2% fib of the late-September leg.
Support: 1.4200, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.4300
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~7.5h) could materially shift this read given stretched CAD shorts
H4 close back below the 1.4200 prior high turns the breakout into a false break and exposes the rising trendline near 1.4185
Loss of the 1.4154 swing low / 38.2% fib breaks the higher-low sequence
H4 close above the 1.4262 swing high extends the uptrend and opens the 1.4300 round number
01:03 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from the 1.4262 high · RSI 58 · price 1.42203
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3759 low; rising trendline intact.
Higher highs and higher lows have held since the 1.3759 early-September low. Fed-BoC divergence and soft oil drove the eight-day run to a 1.4262 swing high, and price is now easing back toward the 1.4200 round number. Wednesday's core PCE miss set the 1.4155 pce low, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the 1.3978–1.4262 leg and recovered within a bar, keeping the rising trendline intact. EMA20 holds above EMA50 with price sitting just above EMA20, and ATR(14) near 23 pips is steady rather than expanding.
Support: 1.4200, 1.4155, 1.4087
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.4300
What it said to watch
Loss of the 1.4200 round number exposes the rising trendline near 1.4180
H4 close below the 1.4155 pce low breaks the higher-low sequence and the rising trendline
A deeper fade below 1.4155 brings the 61.8% fib at 1.4087 into view, close to the 1.4068 fair-value area
A close above the 1.4262 swing high resumes the higher-high sequence toward the 1.4300 round number
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; an overbought USD and rebuilt CAD shorts leave room for a sharp squeeze