19:04 UTC
Range-bound, higher lows since Q1 2026 · RSI 54 · price 1.41807
Multi-quarter range 1.3481–1.4296, price retesting upper boundary.
USDCAD has been range-bound between the 2026 low at 1.3481 and the 2025 high at 1.4296 since Q2 2025. Since Q1 2026 the lows have been rising, and the August swing low at 1.3732 held near the 61.8% retracement of the Jan–Jun rally. Price is back above the 1.40 round number and above both EMAs, retesting the 2026 high at 1.4248 as wide US-Canada yield spreads and soft crude weigh on CAD. W1 RSI near 54 is mid-range and not stretched, while today's NFP miss leaves the dollar side of the range top less supported.
Support: 1.4000, 1.37318, 1.34812
Resistance: 1.42476, 1.42959
What it said to watch
- Weekly close above the 2025 high at 1.4296 would break the 18-month range top
- Repeated rejection at the 2026 high 1.4248 keeps the range read intact and puts the 1.40 round number back in focus
- Weekly close below the 1.3732 swing low breaks the rising support of higher lows
- Canada Sept LFS (Oct 9) and US ISM Services (Oct 5) could shift the Fed-BoC spread narrative behind the range test