USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Friday, 2 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
20:03 UTC
Uptrend, pressing week high · RSI 63 · price 1.42509
Higher lows from Wed 1.4155, highs flat near 1.4262.
The pair has carved higher lows since the PCE-driven dip to the Wed low at 1.4155. NY-session buying then carried it to the week high at 1.4262 on Thursday. Friday's NFP miss briefly pushed price below the Asian range to the 1.4201 nfp low, but that false break was fully reversed within three hours as soft crude kept CAD heavy despite broad USD weakness. Price now sits back above the ema20 near 1.4241, with RSI(14) in the low 60s, retesting the 1.4261–1.4262 week high for a second time.
Support: 1.4241, 1.4201, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4262 week high extends the uptrend and opens the 1.4300 round number
Second rejection at the 1.4262 week high with a close back below the ema20 at ~1.4241 points to a double-top risk
Loss of the 1.4201 nfp low breaks the higher-lows trendline and the 50–61.8% fib zone, exposing the 1.4155 wed low
Mon Oct 5 ISM Services (14:00 UTC) and Fri Oct 9 Canada LFS could materially shift this read
19:04 UTC
Uptrend, retesting the week high · RSI 61 · price 1.42599
Higher lows since Wednesday's PCE low; range 1.4201–1.4262 since Thursday.
The weak payrolls print knocked USDCAD to the 1.4201 nfp low in the first hour of NY. The dip held between the 50% and 61.8% of the Wednesday–Thursday impulse fib and was fully reversed as CAD stayed heavy on soft crude, a false break of Friday's Asian range low. Price is back above the ema20 and pressing Thursday's 1.4262 week high, with RSI(14) near 61 and well short of Thursday's stretched reading.
Support: 1.4238, 1.4201, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4262 week high extends the uptrend and puts the 1.4300 round number in view
Another rejection at 1.4262 leaves a double-top profile inside the 1.4201–1.4262 range
Loss of the 1.4201 nfp low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 1.4154 wed low
Pullbacks holding the ema20 near 1.4238 keep the intraday uptrend intact
US ISM Services (Mon Oct 5, 14:00 UTC) and Canada LFS (Fri Oct 9) could materially shift this read
18:03 UTC
Uptrend, retesting week high · RSI 64 · price 1.4254
Higher lows since Wednesday, pressing 1.4262 cap.
The Wed-Thu impulse ran about 108 pips, from the 1.4154 wed low (post-PCE dip) to the 1.4262 week high in Thursday's NY session. Friday's pullback held near the 50% retracement, and the NFP miss briefly broke under the Asian low to the 1.4201 nfp low before being reclaimed within three bars. Price is now back above the ema20 and just under the week high, with CAD weakness outweighing the softer dollar into the close.
Support: 1.4235, 1.4201, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4262 week high extends the uptrend toward the 1.4300 round number
A second stall at 1.4262 would leave a potential double top against Thursday's high
Break of the 1.4201 nfp low and the rising higher-lows trendline undercuts the higher-low sequence
Holding above the ema20 near 1.4235 keeps the post-NFP recovery intact
Loss of the 1.4154 wed low would erase the Wed-Thu impulse
ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC and Canada LFS Fri Oct 9 could materially shift this read
17:04 UTC
Uptrend, retesting week high · RSI 65 · price 1.42559
Higher lows from Wed's 1.4155; capped at 1.4262 since Thu.
The pair has carved higher lows since Wednesday's PCE-driven dip to the 1.4155 wed low, and Thursday's impulse ran to the 1.4262 week high before fading into the NY close. The soft NFP print sparked a spike to the 1.4201 nfp low that swept Friday's Asian range low. That dip was absorbed between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the Wed-Thu impulse, and the NY session lifted price back above the ema20 to retest the week high, with CAD weakness on softer crude outweighing broad USD softness. RSI(14) is in the mid-60s but below Thursday's peak, so momentum is firm, not stretched.
Support: 1.4234, 1.4201, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4262 week high extends the uptrend and opens the 1.4300 round number
A second rejection at 1.4262 leaves a double-top shape against the week high
Failure to hold the 1.4201 nfp low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 1.4155 wed low
Holding above the ema20 near 1.4234 on pullbacks keeps this week's higher-low sequence intact
ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) could materially shift the read via Fed hike pricing
Higher lows since Wed PCE low, retesting week high.
Higher lows have built since Wednesday's core PCE spike to the 1.4154 wed low. The NY session that day drove the leg to Thursday's 1.4262 week high. Friday's NFP miss knocked price to 1.4201, a false break of the Asian low that held between the 50% and 61.8% fib of that leg, and NY hours have since erased the dip back above ema20. Price is now pressing the week high again with RSI(14) near 62, short of overbought, even as the USD digest leans softer on the payrolls miss.
Support: 1.4228, 1.4201, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4262 week high extends the uptrend and opens the 1.4300 round number
Failure to hold the 1.4201 nfp low breaks the higher-lows trendline and the fib 61.8% zone
Loss of the 1.4154 wed low would undo the week's advance
ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could rebuild or unwind the NFP reaction
Higher lows from 1.4155 under lower highs from 1.4262, compressing.
The week's dominant leg started in Wednesday's NY session, when the core PCE miss briefly dragged price to the 1.4155 weekly low before a reversal carried it to the 1.4262 weekly high in Thursday's NY session. Since then, the fri high at 1.4246 in London has formed a lower high under the weekly high, while the higher-low line holds from Wednesday. The 29K NFP miss produced a wick to the 1.4201 nfp low, close to the 50% retracement of the week's impulse, but it saw little follow-through, and price has recovered back above ema20 with RSI(14) near 54.
Support: 1.4228, 1.4201, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4246, 1.4262, 1.4300
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.4201 nfp low breaks the higher-low line and the 50% retracement, exposing the 1.4155 weekly low
H1 close above the 1.4262 weekly high clears the lower-high line and opens the path to the 1.4300 round number
Repeated failure at the 1.4246 fri high keeps price compressed between the lower-high line and ema20
ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 GMT (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read; Canada LFS on Oct 9 is the next CAD-specific risk
13:03 UTC
Uptrend stalling, lower high after 1.4262 · RSI 48 · price 1.42212
Lower highs from 1.4262 inside 1.4201–1.4262 band.
Wednesday's core PCE dip to the wed low at 1.4155 was reversed in NY hours. That reversal became a ~107-pip wed-thu impulse to the week high at 1.4262 during Thursday's NY session, and Friday's London push stalled at a lower high (fri high 1.4246). The across-the-board NFP miss (29K vs 90K, soft wages) swept Friday's Asian low to the nfp low at 1.4201 in the release hour. The bar closed back at 1.4218, near the 38.2% retracement of the impulse. Price now sits just under the ema20 at 1.4226 and below EMA(50), with RSI(14) flat near 48.
Support: 1.4201, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4226, 1.4246, 1.4262
What it said to watch
H1 close below the nfp low at 1.4201 breaks the wed-low trendline and exposes the 61.8% retracement near 1.4196, then the wed low at 1.4155
Reclaim of the ema20 at 1.4226 and a close above the fri high at 1.4246 would break the lower highs line and reopen the week high at 1.4262
Further USD unwind as markets digest the NFP miss; US Factory Orders at 14:00 UTC and ISM Services on Monday could shift this read
Higher low at 50% fib, lower high under 1.4262; compressing.
The week's dominant leg came in Wednesday's NY session. After the core PCE miss dragged price to the 1.4155 week low, a 108-pip rally reached the 1.4262 week high in Thursday's NY session, helped by widening yield spreads and softer oil. The pullback found the 50% fib at the 1.4209 swing low in Friday's Asia session, and London lifted price back above the ema20 to a 1.4246 session high. RSI(14) is near 60 and price is compressing between rising lows and lower highs ahead of payrolls.
Support: 1.4229, 1.4209, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4246, 1.4262
What it said to watch
US NFP later today could materially shift this read; the digest flags two-sided risk with USD/CAD already stretched
H1 close above the 1.4262 week high resumes the uptrend from Wednesday's low and breaks the pennant
Rejection at the 1.4246 session high keeps the lower-high sequence intact under the week high
Failure to hold the 1.4209 swing low at the 50% fib breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 1.4155 week low
Repeated H1 closes below the ema20 at 1.4229 shift the read from consolidation to a deeper pullback
The week's dominant move was the post-PCE reversal. Wednesday's NY spike to the 1.4155 PCE low was fully reclaimed, and the pair ran to a 1.4262 week high in Thursday's NY session. The pullback from that high bottomed at 1.4209 in early London, almost exactly the 50% fib of the leg and a clean higher low on the rising trendline. Price has since moved back above the 1.4235 Asia high and EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 59, as a firm dollar and softer crude kept the dip shallow.
Support: 1.4235, 1.4209, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4262, 1.4300
What it said to watch
US September NFP at 12:30 GMT (~90 min) could materially shift this read; the CAD digest flags a soft print as the bigger two-way risk given the overbought backdrop
H1 close back below the 1.4235 Asia high returns price to the pullback range
Failure to hold the 50% fib at 1.4209, and with it the higher-lows trendline, opens a retest of the 1.4155 PCE low
H1 close above the 1.4262 week high extends the uptrend toward the 1.4300 round number
10:03 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from week high · RSI 55 · price 1.42366
Higher low at 50% fib after impulse to 1.4262.
The week's dominant leg started in Wednesday's NY session, when the dip to the 1.4155 wed low on the core PCE miss reversed into a run to the 1.4262 week high by Thursday's NY session, helped by the wider US-Canada yield gap and softer crude. The pullback since found demand at the fib 50% near 1.4209 in Friday's Asian and early London trade, which is also a retest of Tuesday's 1.4200 breakout area. Price has reclaimed the ema20 around 1.4226 and is pressing the London session high at 1.4238, with RSI(14) back in the mid-50s.
Support: 1.4226, 1.4209, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4238, 1.4262
What it said to watch
US September NFP at 12:30 GMT today could materially shift this read in either direction
H1 close above the 1.4238 session high reopens a test of the 1.4262 week high
Failure to hold the fib 50% at 1.4209 breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.4155 wed low
Slipping back below the ema20 near 1.4226 returns the pair to Friday's pullback range
USDCAD dropped briefly to the 1.4155 wed low on the core PCE miss during NY hours. It then rallied to a 1.4262 week high in Thursday's NY session, extending the week's run on wide US-Canada yield spreads and softer crude. The pullback since found demand at the London open on the 50% fib near 1.4209, above the 1.4200 round number, and price is back above EMA(20) around 1.4227 with RSI(14) near 55 after cooling from stretched mid-week levels.
Support: 1.4209, 1.4200, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4236, 1.4262
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.4236 friday high reopens the 1.4262 week high
Failure to hold the 50% fib at 1.4209 and the 1.4200 round number breaks the higher lows and exposes the 1.4155 wed low
US NFP at 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, prev 162K) and AHE could materially shift this read
08:04 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from week high · RSI 40 · price 1.42214
Lower highs off 1.4262; correction holding the 38.2–50% fib.
Wednesday's core PCE miss sent USD/CAD briefly to the 1.4155 wed low, a false break that was reversed in full. Price then pushed through Thursday's NY session to a 1.4262 week high, which was rejected as US yields eased. Since then lower highs have pulled price into the 38.2–50% retracement of the wed low to week high leg, with RSI(14) slipping to ~40 and price pinned just under EMA(20) at 1.4226 and on EMA(50), between the 1.4209 asia low and the 1.4235 asia high.
Support: 1.4209, 1.4200, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4226, 1.4235, 1.4262
What it said to watch
US September NFP at 12:30 GMT today could materially shift this read; the digest flags two-sided risk given rebuilt CAD shorts
H1 close below the 1.4209 asia low and 1.4200 round number exposes the 61.8% retracement near 1.4195 and then the wed low at 1.4155
H1 close back above EMA(20) and the 1.4235 asia high breaks the lower highs line and reopens the 1.4262 week high
Crude oil direction remains the main CAD-specific driver around the data
07:03 UTC
Uptrend, correcting from week high · RSI 40 · price 1.42205
Lower highs since Thursday's 1.4262 peak, pullback into 38.2–50% fib.
After the soft core PCE print dragged the pair to the 1.4155 pce low in Wednesday's NY session, the rebound carried through NY hours and into Thursday, extending the week's run from the 1.4154 Monday open to a 1.4262 week high. Rejection at that peak, following a 1.4258 high in London, formed a small double top. Price has since printed a lower high at 1.4235 during Asia and slipped under the ema20, with RSI(14) near 40. Price now sits on EMA(50) and the 38.2% retracement, while Friday's 1.4209 low tags the 50% fib, just above the 1.4200 round number.
Support: 1.4209, 1.4200, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4226, 1.4235, 1.4262
What it said to watch
US September NFP at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read in either direction
H1 close below the 1.4200 round number confirms a deeper correction toward the 1.4155 pce low
Reclaiming the ema20 and the 1.4235 lower high restores the uptrend read and reopens the 1.4262 week high
Lower highs off 1.4262, double top neckline broken.
The dominant move this week came in Wednesday's NY session: the soft core PCE dip to the 1.4154 pce low was fully reversed, and the advance extended to a 1.4262 week high in Thursday's NY session after the hot ISM prices paid print. Since then, a second rejection near the week high has left a double top. The pair broke the 1.4231 neckline and has printed lower highs through the Asia session, now sitting below the EMA(20) at 1.4223 and the EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 38. The 1.4211 Asia low sits between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the PCE-to-high leg, with the 1.4200 round number just beneath.
Support: 1.4211, 1.4200, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4223, 1.4231, 1.4262
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~7h) could materially shift this read in either direction
H1 close back above the 1.4231 neckline and the lower-highs line negates the double top
Failure to hold the 1.4211 Asia low and the 1.4200 round number exposes the 61.8% fib near 1.4196
A break below the 1.4154 pce low would erase the whole post-PCE leg
Recovery through the 1.4262 week high resumes the weekly uptrend
05:03 UTC
Uptrend since Wednesday, now in corrective pullback · RSI 35 · price 1.42137
Lower high and lower low off the 1.4262 week high; retracing the Wed–Thu leg.
Wednesday's softer US core PCE briefly dropped the pair to the 1.4155 pce low in NY hours. The rebound then cleared Tuesday's twice-rejected 1.4200 area (the tue highs) and extended to a 1.4262 week high during Thursday's NY session. Supply has capped price since that rejection: Asia printed a lower high at 1.4235 and a fresh asia low at 1.4211, below Thursday's late lows. Price sits under EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 35, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the Wed–Thu leg.
Support: 1.4211, 1.4200, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4228, 1.4235, 1.4262
What it said to watch
US Sept NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read in either direction
An H1 close below the 1.4200 tue highs (near the 61.8% of the Wed–Thu leg) turns the breakout retest into a failure and exposes the 1.4155 pce low
A reclaim of EMA(20) and the 1.4235 asia high breaks the lower highs sequence and reopens the 1.4262 week high
04:03 UTC
Weekly uptrend, pulling back from highs · RSI 38 · price 1.42119
Double top at week high, lower highs since Thursday NY.
USDCAD recovered Wednesday's PCE-driven dip to the 1.4155 PCE low with a one-way NY-session rally, then printed a 1.4262 week high during Thursday's NY hours as broad USD strength and soft crude weighed on CAD. Twin tops at 1.4258–1.4262 gave way to a slide through the 1.4231 neckline. Asia's bounce stalled at 1.4235 for another lower high, leaving price below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 38. Price now sits between the 38.2% retracement of the Wednesday–Thursday advance and the fib 50% level at 1.4208.
Support: 1.4208, 1.4200, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4231, 1.4262
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read. The digest flags crowded CAD shorts and two-way risk around the print.
An H1 close back above the 1.4231 neckline and the lower-highs line would invalidate the double top read.
Failure to hold the fib 50% at 1.4208 and the 1.4200 round number would expose the 1.4155 PCE low.
A reclaim of the 1.4262 week high would put the week's uptrend back in control of structure.
03:04 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from week high · RSI 41 · price 1.42208
Higher highs into Thursday, lower highs since; pullback at 38.2%.
The week's dominant leg started at Wednesday's core PCE spike low at 1.4155. NY recovered it and extended the eight-day run to a 1.4262 week high during Thursday's NY session, as oil-led USD strength outweighed the soft print. Since that rejection the pair has printed lower highs into the Asia session, slipping under EMA(20) at 1.4231 and onto EMA(50) near 1.4221 with RSI(14) easing to ~41. Price now sits on the 38.2% retracement of the PCE leg, with the day low at 1.4217 and the 1.4200 round number (Tuesday's capped highs) beneath.
Support: 1.4217, 1.4200, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4231, 1.4258, 1.4262
What it said to watch
US September NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read, with stretched USD and CAD positioning raising two-way risk
H1 close below the 1.4200 round number clears the 50% retracement of the PCE leg and returns price to Tuesday's range
H1 close back above EMA(20) and the lower-highs line near 1.4235 would mark the pullback as shallow, leaving the 1.4258 prior high and 1.4262 week high as the band to clear
Loss of the 1.4155 pce low would erase the entire post-PCE leg
02:03 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from week high · RSI 42 · price 1.4228
Higher lows intact; pullback holding near 38.2% fib.
After a Monday–Tuesday grind to 1.4201, the soft US core PCE knocked the pair to a 1.4154 pce low in Wednesday's NY session. That dip reversed into a post-PCE leg to a 1.4262 week high during Thursday NY hours, helped by firm USD and softer crude. Supply capped the week high and price has since slipped below the ema20 (1.4231) to a 1.4217 pullback low, holding near the 38.2% retracement and just above EMA(50), with RSI(14) cooled to ~42 and the pullback line from the high capping the Asia session bounce.
Support: 1.4217, 1.4200, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4231, 1.4250, 1.4262
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 1.4217 pullback low and the 1.4200 round number breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.4154 pce low
H1 close back above the ema20 and the pullback line reopens the 1.4250 prior high and 1.4262 week high
01:04 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading · RSI 49 · price 1.42284
Higher lows intact; pullback below EMA20 testing rising support and the 38.2% retracement.
Wednesday's post-PCE dip to 1.4154 was bought through the NY session. Fed-BoC divergence and soft oil then carried the pair to a 1.4262 week high on Thursday, but RSI(14) printed ~64 there versus ~73 at the earlier London-session peak. The late-NY slide has pushed price back below EMA(20) at 1.4231 and into rising support and the 38.2% retracement near the 1.4217 Thu low, with EMA(50) at ~1.4215 just beneath and the higher-low sequence still intact into the Asia session.
Support: 1.4217, 1.4200, 1.4154
Resistance: 1.4231, 1.4262
What it said to watch
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; the digest flags USD/CAD as overbought and squeeze-prone on a soft print
H1 close below the 1.4217 thu low and rising support breaks the higher-low sequence, putting the 50% fib at 1.4208 and the 1.4200 round number in play
Loss of the 1.4200 round number exposes the 1.4154 pce low
Reclaim of ema20 at 1.4231 and a close above the 1.4262 week high would negate the bearish RSI divergence
00:03 UTC
Uptrend, correcting from week high · RSI 37 · price 1.42196
Higher lows since Monday; Thursday range floor broken.
The week opened near 1.4156. Wednesday's soft US core PCE briefly dropped the pair to the 1.4155 pce low early in NY, then it reversed sharply through the NY session. The climb extended to a 1.4262 week high during Thursday's NY hours, after the US claims beat and the hot ISM prices paid. Late Thursday the 1.4230 broken floor gave way and price slipped below EMA(20) for the first time since Wednesday. It now sits on the 38.2% fib of the PCE-low rally, at a 1.4217 session low, with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 1.4217, 1.4200, 1.4155
Resistance: 1.4230, 1.4262
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.4230 broken floor and EMA(20) would reclaim Thursday's range
Loss of the 1.4200 round number brings the 61.8% fib near 1.4196 and then the 1.4155 pce low into view
H1 close above the 1.4262 week high resumes the higher-high sequence
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
A break of the higher lows trendline from Monday would end the week's uptrend structure