USDCAD sold off through the window from early-month highs near 1.4247 to a 1.4000 base, pressured by firm USD repricing while soft Canadian CPI and fresh tariffs capped CAD upside. Price has twice held the 1.4000 psych level (double bottom), bouncing to 1.4114 before stalling; ATR has compressed as the pair consolidates in the 1.4000–1.4114 band. The 1.4110 area is the immediate cap for the recovery.
Support: 1.4056, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4114, 1.4150
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4114 swing high opens the path toward 1.4150 resistance
Loss of the 1.4000 psych level confirms a lower low and downtrend resumption
FOMC Jul 29 is the dominant catalyst and could materially shift this read
13:03 UTC
Downtrend stalling, recovering off 1.40 base · RSI 53 · price 1.40881
Based out at 1.40, short-term higher lows building.
The slide from 1.4247 based out at the 1.40 round number, printing a double bottom before recovering to the current 1.4088 — roughly a 35% fib retracement of that impulse leg. Soft Canadian CPI (2.8%) and a firm dollar capped the Loonie while firm oil cushioned the downside, keeping USDCAD boxed near fair value. Short-term higher lows are forming above 1.4056 but price has yet to reclaim the 1.4110 swing high.
Support: 1.4056, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4150
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4110 swing high opens the path to 1.4150 prior high
Failure to hold the 1.40 base confirms a fresh lower low
FOMC next week is the marquee risk that could reset this read
USDCAD sold off from the mid-July 1.4240 area high to a double bottom near 1.4000, where demand stepped in twice. Price has since recovered into a 1.4000-1.4110 range with ATR(14) compressing. Soft Canadian CPI and a firm USD backdrop kept the pair off its lows, but momentum stays capped below the EMA50.
Support: 1.4005, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4111, 1.4150
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4111 opens the path toward 1.4150
Failure to hold 1.4000 confirms a lower low and breaks the double bottom
US flash PMIs today and FOMC next week could materially shift this read
09:03 UTC
Downtrend, basing after recovery · RSI 48 · price 1.40756
Range grind, higher lows off 1.400 base.
USDCAD sold off from ~1.4247 into a double bottom near the 1.4000 psych level, then recovered to a swing high at 1.4110 before rolling back to consolidate around 1.408. Price sits just under EMA20 with ATR(14) near 18 pips — a compressed, two-way grind consistent with the digest's ~1.40-1.41 fair-value zone as soft CAD CPI and tariffs cap CAD while firm oil offsets.
Support: 1.4061, 1.4004, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4150
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4110 swing high opens the path to the 1.4150 range high
Loss of the 1.4000 psych / double bottom base resumes the downtrend
US S&P Global PMIs today 13:45 UTC could shift the broad USD leg
09:03 UTC
Downtrend, basing after bounce · RSI 47 · price 1.40756
Double-bottom recovery stalling below swing high.
USDCAD sold off from early-window highs near 1.4247 into a double-bottom base around 1.4000, then recovered to a 1.4110 swing high before stalling; price now consolidates near 1.4076, sitting just under EMA20 and EMA50. Soft June Canadian CPI and fresh US tariffs cap CAD while firm oil offsets, keeping spot parked near the 1.40 fair-value zone. ATR(14) near 19 pips reflects a compressing range rather than trend extension.
Support: 1.4005, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4175
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.4110 swing high opens the path toward the 1.4175 range top
Loss of the 1.4000 double-bottom base confirms a fresh lower low
Oil and US-Iran headlines could materially shift this read absent domestic CAD data
05:03 UTC
Downtrend, recovering off floor · RSI 48 · price 1.40764
Double bottom at 1.4000, capped below 1.4100.
USDCAD sold off from the 1.4247 area through the window but demand held twice near 1.4000, forming a double bottom that sparked a bounce to 1.4110. Price has since stalled below the 1.4100 pivot and is consolidating around EMA20, with soft Canadian CPI and hawkish-Fed pricing keeping dips off 1.4000 supported. The 50-day MA sits just under the floor as the next reference below.
Support: 1.4000, 1.3991
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4150
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4110 swing high opens the path toward 1.4150
Failure to hold 1.4000 breaks the double bottom and confirms a lower low
US PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
The multi-week slide from 1.4247 bottomed near the 1.4000 psychological floor and one-month low, where demand stepped in repeatedly and a recovery bounce carried price back toward the 1.4100 confluence, in line with the firm-USD/dovish-BoC theme after Canada's soft CPI. That bounce is now stalling: price sits back below EMA20 while holding above EMA50 and a rising higher-low sequence off the base. ATR(14) near 17 pips shows compression as the market coils under the 1.4100 pivot.
Support: 1.40605, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.41105
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4100 confluence opens the path toward 1.4150
Failure to hold the 1.4060 higher-low exposes the 1.4000 floor
US S&P Global PMIs at 13:45 UTC could shift the USD read
USDCAD declined from the 1.4247 area to the 1.4000 psych floor, where a double bottom formed and buyers stepped in twice near 1.4005. The rebound stalled below the 1.4100 psych confluence with a swing high at 1.4110, and price is now consolidating just above the short EMAs. Soft Canadian CPI and tariff headwinds underpin the recovery, but rallying oil keeps the pair capped under 1.4100.
Support: 1.4005, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4110, 1.4150
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4100 psych opens the path toward the 1.4150 prior high
Break below the 1.4000 psych floor re-opens the 1.3970 area
US flash PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC could shift the USD leg materially
USDCAD ground down from the 1.42 region to a 1.4005 double bottom as firm oil supported CAD, then based and recovered toward the 1.4110 swing high before easing to 1.4085. Near-term higher lows are forming off the floor, but price remains capped below the 1.4150 interim resistance, keeping the broader pullback intact. ATR is moderate and price is consolidating between the 1.4005 floor and 1.4110.
Support: 1.4005, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4150
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.4110 opens the path to 1.4150 interim resistance
Loss of the 1.4000 psych floor re-opens downside toward 1.3970
US flash PMIs Jul 24 13:45 UTC could shift the USD leg