Tight range 0.8162–0.8176 since NY afternoon, sitting on the 50% fib.
The ADP beat lifted USDCHF off the 0.8146 london low into a 0.8186 ny high, and the soft ISM services print capped the move. Since then the pair has compressed between the 0.8162 range low and the 0.8176 range top into the Asia session. Price is pinned at the 50% fib of that leg, just below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR around 4 pips, so no setup is in play.
Support: 0.81623, 0.81455
Resistance: 0.81764, 0.81858
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8162 range low exposes the 0.8146 london low and the 61.8% fib at 0.8161
Close above the 0.8176 range top reopens the 0.8186 ny high
Thin Asia session liquidity keeps ranges compressed; Swiss/US data flow resumes with US jobless claims and SNB's Schlegel at 13:30 UTC Thu
23:31 UTC
Sideways after rebound off lows, compressing · RSI 44 · price 0.81676
Tight 0.8163–0.8176 band inside a 0.8146–0.8186 intraday range.
Haven flows after the midterm result drove the 2-month low at 0.8127 early in Asia hours, and the pair has since held a 0.8146 swing low to 0.8186 session high range. NY's push to the session high faded back to the 38.2% fib near 0.8163, and the late NY into Asia open has compressed between that range low and a 0.8176 range top. RSI(14) sits near 44, price is flat around the EMAs and ATR is about 4 pips.
Support: 0.8163, 0.8146, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8176, 0.8186
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8163 range low exposes the 0.8146 swing low and the 50% fib near 0.8157
Close above the 0.8176 range top reopens the 0.8186 session high
Loss of 0.8146 would put the 0.8127 2-month low back in play
SNB Schlegel and US Jobless Claims, both Thu 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
23:16 UTC
Recovery from Asia low, now flat · RSI 42 · price 0.81683
0.8162–0.8176 range below NY high.
Asia hours sold to the 0.8127 2-month low on the post-midterm USD drop. The rebound stalled at the 0.8186 NY high, helped by the ADP beat, and the pair has since held a 0.8162–0.8176 range just above the 38.2% fib, with the late low intact. RSI(14) near 42 and ATR compressing to about 4 pips into the thin rollover hour, with price pinned at flat EMAs.
Support: 0.8162, 0.8146, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8176, 0.8186
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8162 late low and 38.2% fib exposes the 0.8146 ny low
Close above the 0.8176 range top reopens the 0.8186 ny high
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC Thu could materially shift this read; a hawkish SNB tone puts the 2-month low back in focus
23:02 UTC
Recovery from 0.8127 low, now flat · RSI 44 · price 0.81683
Tight 0.8162–0.8176 consolidation below the NY session high.
After the midterm-driven drop to the 2-month low at 0.8127 in Asia, the pair recovered through London and NY. The NY rally stalled at the 0.8186 session high, and that rejection led into a 0.8162–0.8176 band. Price is holding just above the late-NY low near the 38.2% retracement, slightly below EMA20/50, and early Asia ranges are tight.
Support: 0.81625, 0.81455, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.81763, 0.81858
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8162 late-NY low opens the NY low at 0.8146
Close above the 0.8176 range cap brings the 0.8186 session high back into play
A break of the NY low re-exposes the 0.8127 2-month low
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims, both at 13:30 UTC Thursday, could materially shift this read
22:46 UTC
Rebound stalling, lower highs since NY peak · RSI 35 · price 0.81636
Descending highs over flat 0.8162 base; Asian open testing floor.
The Asia-hours selloff after the US midterms bottomed at the 0.8127 2-month low. The rebound stalled near the 61.8% retrace, and the spike to the 0.8186 session high after the US ISM Services release faded through NY. Price has slipped on thin rollover liquidity to test the 0.8162 NY lows beneath a sequence of lower highs. RSI(14) is near 35, not at an extreme.
Support: 0.8162, 0.8151, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8176, 0.8186
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.8162 NY lows exposes the 0.8151 London low
Close above the 0.8176 range top and the falling trendline invalidates the lower-high read
Thin early-Asia liquidity can exaggerate moves at the 0.8162 floor
Schlegel (SNB) and US jobless claims, both Thu 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
22:16 UTC
Recovery off Asia low, momentum fading · RSI 39 · price 0.81639
Higher lows since 0.8127; late-NY range giving way at rollover.
The midterm-driven USD selloff in the Asia session set the 0.8127 two-month low, and London and NY then printed higher lows before the NY rally was capped at the 0.8186 session high. The late-NY range below the 0.8176 range top slipped at rollover to the late NY low near 0.8162. That area lines up with rising support and the 61.8% retrace of the NY rally, with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 0.8162, 0.8146, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8176, 0.8186
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.8160 breaks rising support and the NY rally fib, exposing the 0.8146 NY swing low, then the 0.8127 2-month low
Reclaim of the 0.8176 range top reopens the 0.8186 session high
The rollover drop came on thin liquidity; it needs Asia session follow-through to count as a range break
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims, both Thu 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
22:03 UTC
Recovery off Asian low, now flat · RSI 48 · price 0.81709
Rising highs since 0.8127; tight 0.8167–0.8178 late-NY range.
The post-midterm haven bid flushed price to the 0.8127 2-month low during the Asia session. About 70% of that drop has since been retraced, with highs stepping up to the 0.8186 session high in NY before fading back. Late NY has compressed into a 0.8167–0.8178 range above the 0.8162 swing low (38.2% fib) and rising support, with RSI(14) neutral near 48 and ATR(14) under 5 pips.
Support: 0.8162, 0.8146, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8178, 0.8186, 0.8211
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8162 swing low and the rising support line breaks the higher-low recovery and exposes the 0.8146 ny low
Loss of 0.8146 reopens the 0.8127 2-month low
Close above the 0.8178 range top brings the 0.8186 session high back into play; clearing it points toward the 0.8211 asian high
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims at Thu 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
21:46 UTC
Recovery off Asian low, now flat · RSI 52 · price 0.81699
Higher lows from 0.8127, compressing below NY high.
The post-midterm USD selloff and CHF haven bid drove the pair to the 0.8127 asia low early in the Asia session. It has since printed higher lows at the 0.8146 london low and the 0.8164 fib 38.2, and a higher high at the 0.8186 ny high. After the NY close, price is compressed in a 0.8167–0.8176 band just under the range top. RSI is neutral near 52 and ATR has contracted to about 4 pips.
Support: 0.81636, 0.81455, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.81764, 0.81858
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8176 range top reopens the 0.8186 ny high
Loss of the 0.8164 fib 38.2 and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.8146 london low
A return below the 0.8146 london low puts the 0.8127 asia low back in focus
SNB Schlegel and US jobless claims, both Thu 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
21:31 UTC
Recovery from Asia low, now flat · RSI 49 · price 0.81681
Rising lows off 0.8127, compressing 0.8162–0.8176 below session high.
The post-midterm USD selloff in Asia ran from the 0.8211 selloff high to a 2-month low at 0.8127, and the pair has since retraced half of it. The ADP beat lifted it off the 0.8146 NY low to a 0.8186 session high, near the 61.8% selloff fib, but late NY has compressed into a 0.8162–0.8176 range at the 50% level with RSI(14) at 49.
Support: 0.8162, 0.8146, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8176, 0.8186, 0.8211
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8162 range low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 0.8146 NY low, then the 0.8127 2-month low
Close above the 0.8176 range top brings the 0.8186 session high and the 61.8% selloff fib back into play; above that sits the 0.8211 selloff high
Thin Asia session liquidity ahead of Thu 13:30 UTC US claims and SNB's Schlegel could distort this range read
21:16 UTC
Range after Asia selloff, compressing late NY · RSI 51 · price 0.81686
Lower highs from 0.8186 vs rising lows from 0.8162, tightening.
Asia sold to the 0.8127 asia low (two-month low) on the post-midterm USD dump. The ADP beat lifted NY to the 0.8186 ny high before the ISM miss faded it. Price is now compressing between the 0.8162 swing low and the 0.8176 range top on lower highs and rising lows, holding near the 23.6–38.2% retrace of the Asia-to-NY leg.
Support: 0.8162, 0.8146, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8176, 0.8186
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8162 swing low (38.2% retrace) breaks the rising lows and exposes the 0.8146 london low
M15 close above the 0.8176 range top breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.8186 ny high
A slide back through the london low puts the 0.8127 asia low back in play during the thin Asia session
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims, both Thu 13:30 UTC, are the next catalysts that could reset this range
21:02 UTC
Recovery from Asia low, stalling into late NY · RSI 51 · price 0.81686
Higher lows off 0.8127, compressing in a 0.8162–0.8176 range below the 0.8186 session high.
The midterm-driven USD selloff hit a 2-month low at 0.8127 in Asia. Price then built higher lows through London and NY, with the ADP beat lifting it to a 0.8186 session high before a rejection. The fade held the NY pullback at 0.8162, near the 38.2% of the Asia-NY fib, and price has since compressed under a 0.8176 range top into the post-NY lull.
Support: 0.81623, 0.81455, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.81764, 0.81858
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8176 range top reopens the 0.8186 session high
Break of the 0.8162 NY pullback and rising support exposes the 0.8146 NY low
Loss of the 0.8146 NY low would end the higher-low chain and bring the 2-month low at 0.8127 back into view
SNB's Schlegel (Thu 13:30 UTC), on top of the hot Swiss CPI, could materially shift this read
20:46 UTC
Recovering off Asian low, momentum flat · RSI 54 · price 0.81712
Higher lows under a 0.8176–0.8186 cap, late-NY compression.
The post-midterm USD selloff took USD/CHF to the 0.8127 asian low (two-month low). Since then the pair has printed higher lows at the 0.8146 london low and 0.8162 ny low. The ADP beat drove a push to the 0.8186 session high, but that poke above the Asian range high failed. Price is now compressing after the NY close in a 7-pip band below the 0.8176 range top, pinned to EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 0.8162, 0.8146, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8176, 0.8186
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.8176 range top reopens the 0.8186 session high
Break of the 0.8162 ny low and the higher-low trendline undoes the recovery structure, exposing the 0.8146 london low
Asian low at 0.8127 remains the structural floor; a retest would reassert the midterm-driven downside
SNB's Schlegel (Thu 13:30 UTC) on the 1.5% CPI could materially shift this read
Fib 38.2% near 0.8163 aligns with the ny low; a hold there keeps the retracement shallow
20:31 UTC
Rebounding off the lows, now flat in late NY · RSI 51 · price 0.81718
Rising lows since 0.8127, compressing 0.8162–0.8176.
The overnight USD selloff on the Democratic midterm sweep set the 0.8127 two-month low. Rising lows followed at the 0.8146 NY low and the 0.8162 range low. The NY rally stalled at the 0.8186 NY high after the ISM services miss, near the 61.8% of the NY rally fib, and late NY is a tight 0.8162–0.8176 consolidation with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 0.81623, 0.81455, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.81764, 0.81858
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8176 range high reopens the 0.8186 NY high
Break of the 0.8162 range low and the rising lows line exposes the 0.8146 NY low, then the 0.8127 2m low
SNB's Schlegel (Thu 13:30 UTC) on the 1.5% CPI beat could materially shift this read
20:16 UTC
Rebound off Asia low, momentum stalling · RSI 51 · price 0.81721
Higher highs since 0.8127; late-NY range 0.8162–0.8178.
The Asia-session selloff on the Democratic midterm sweep printed the 0.8127 swing low. London and NY rebuilt to a 0.8186 session high after the ADP beat (86K vs 69K). Late NY has compressed into a 0.8162–0.8178 band, holding near the 61.8% retrace of the NY low-to-high leg with RSI(14) neutral at 51 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 0.81623, 0.81455, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.81806, 0.81858
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8180 london high reopens the 0.8186 session high
Loss of the 0.8162 ny range low breaks the NY higher-low line and exposes the 0.8146 ny low, then the 0.8127 swing low
SNB's Schlegel (Thu 13:30 UTC) and US jobless claims could materially shift this read
20:01 UTC
Recovery off Asia low, momentum flat · RSI 52 · price 0.81721
Post-rally consolidation 0.8162–0.8176 below NY high.
Midterm-driven USD selling took the pair to 0.8127 in Asia before a recovery. The ADP beat lifted NY off the 0.8146 ny low to a 0.8186 ny high. The pullback held the 0.8162 swing low near the 61.8% fib, and price is now compressing under the 0.8176 evening high with ATR down to about 5 pips late in NY.
Support: 0.81623, 0.8159, 0.81455
Resistance: 0.81764, 0.81806, 0.81858
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8176 evening high and the 0.8180 london high puts the 0.8186 ny high back in play
Loss of the 0.8162 swing low and rising trendline exposes the 0.8159 100d sma, then the 0.8146 ny low
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims Thu 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
19:46 UTC
Recovery off Asia low, flattening late NY · RSI 48 · price 0.81719
Higher lows since 0.8127, compressing 0.8162–0.8175.
Asia-session selloff on the midterm result printed the 0.8127 asia low. Since then the pair has carved higher lows at 0.8151, the 0.8146 NY low and the 0.8162 swing low, while the 0.8186 NY high capped the post-ADP/ISM rally. Late NY is compressing under the 0.8175 late cap, roughly a 58% retracement of the NY rally fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 0.81623, 0.81455, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.81749, 0.81858
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8162 swing low breaks the rising-low trendline and puts the 0.8146 NY low back in play
Close above the 0.8175 late cap reopens a test of the 0.8186 NY high
Loss of the 0.8146 NY low exposes the 0.8127 asia low
SNB's Schlegel (Thu 13:30 UTC) on the 1.5% CPI could materially shift this read
19:31 UTC
Recovering off Asia low, momentum flat · RSI 52 · price 0.81717
Higher-low chain since 0.8127, compressing under lower highs.
The Asia selloff on the Democrats' midterm win bottomed at the 0.8127 asia low. London and NY have since printed higher lows, with the ADP beat lifting price from the 0.8146 pre-adp low through the 0.8181 london high to a 0.8186 ny high. Late NY is compressing between the 0.8162 ny swing low, a 61.8% retest of that leg, and a run of lower highs near 0.8178, with RSI(14) neutral at 52 and price hugging EMA20.
Support: 0.81623, 0.81455, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.81779, 0.81806, 0.81858
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8162 ny swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and reopens the 0.8146 pre-adp low
Close above the 0.8178 lower highs and the 0.8181 london high puts the 0.8186 ny high back in play
Thin Asia session liquidity can extend the 0.8162–0.8178 compression
Schlegel speech and US Jobless Claims Thu 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
19:16 UTC
Recovery off Asia low, now stalling · RSI 47 · price 0.81698
Higher lows since 0.8127; lower highs below 0.8186 since 15:00 UTC.
Midterm-driven USD weakness and CHF strength from the hot CPI print took the pair to an Asian low of 0.8127 before higher lows formed at 0.8151 and the 0.8146 NY low. The ADP beat lifted it to the 0.8186 NY high, and late NY it is compressing at 0.8170 under lower highs near 0.8176. It sits above the session low at 0.8162, near the fib 61.8 of the NY leg.
Support: 0.81623, 0.81455
Resistance: 0.81763, 0.81858
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.8162 session low and fib 61.8 breaks the post-Asia higher-low chain, exposing the 0.8146 NY low
Close above the 0.8176 lower highs reopens the 0.8186 NY high
Thu Jobless Claims and SNB Schlegel at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
19:01 UTC
Range after Asia sell-off, momentum flat · RSI 46 · price 0.81698
0.8145–0.8186 range since London open, late-NY consolidation near mid-range.
USD/CHF fell from the 0.8206 pre-drop area to the 0.8127 Asia low in Asia as the Democratic midterm sweep hit the dollar and hot Swiss CPI kept CHF bid. London and NY have rotated inside 0.8145–0.8186, with the NY rally from the 0.8145 ny low capped at 0.8186. Late NY, price is holding the 0.8162 pullback low, near the 61.8% of that NY swing, and is pinned at EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 0.81623, 0.81455, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.81749, 0.81858, 0.8206
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8162 pullback low exposes the 0.8145 ny low and the range floor
Repeated failure at the 0.8175 minor high keeps the late-NY consolidation intact
Break above the 0.8186 ny high would end the range read and bring the 0.8206 pre-drop area into view
SNB's Schlegel (Thu 13:30 UTC) and US jobless claims could materially shift this read
Range 0.8146–0.8186 since London, higher low at 0.8162.
The Asia session slide on the Democratic midterm sweep bottomed at the 0.8127 Asia low. Since London the pair has ranged between the 0.8146 session low and the 0.8186 NY high, where the rally was rejected. The late-NY pullback held at the 0.8162 swing low near the 61.8% retrace, with the rising trendline intact and RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 0.81623, 0.81455, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.81806, 0.81858
What it said to watch
The London high at 0.8181 is the first cap; an M15 close above the 0.8186 NY high breaks the range top
Failure to hold the 0.8162 swing low and rising trendline exposes the 0.8146 session low
A break of the 0.8146 session low reopens the 0.8127 Asia low
SNB Schlegel speech Thu 13:30 UTC, the first SNB read after the 1.5% CPI beat, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since NY session high; testing rising trendline.
USD/CHF set an asian low at 0.8127 on the post-midterm USD selloff and hot Swiss CPI, then rebuilt through London to a NY session high at 0.8186. Lower highs since then have pulled price back to the 0.8162 intraday low, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the 0.8146 swing low to 0.8186 leg and on the rising trendline. RSI(14) is neutral near 52.
Support: 0.8162, 0.8146, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8186, 0.8211
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8162 intraday low and the rising trendline exposes the 0.8146 swing low, then the 0.8127 asian low
Close above the 0.8186 session high reopens the 0.8211 prior high from before the Asia selloff
SNB Schlegel Thu 13:30 UTC and US jobless claims could materially shift this read
18:02 UTC
Post-selloff recovery, stalling in late NY · RSI 52 · price 0.8169
Lower highs off 0.8186 NY high, holding above 0.8162.
USD/CHF slid through Asia on the post-midterm dollar selloff and hot Swiss CPI, bottoming at the 0.8127 asia low. London and NY have held a 0.8146–0.8186 range since. Late NY is compressing between the 0.8162 late NY low, near the 61.8% of the NY rally fib, and a lower highs line off the 0.8186 NY high, with RSI(14) flat near 52.
Support: 0.8162, 0.8146, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8178, 0.8186
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8162 late NY low breaks the 61.8% of the NY rally fib and exposes the 0.8146 NY low, near the 0.8165/0.8140 support zone flagged in the CHF digest
M15 close above 0.8178 breaks the lower highs line and puts the 0.8186 NY high back in play
Loss of the 0.8146 NY low reopens the 0.8127 asia low
SNB's Schlegel speaks Thu 13:30 UTC; FX-intervention or franc-strength language could materially shift this read
0.8146–0.8186 range since the Asia low, lower highs off the NY high.
The Asia-session flush from 0.8210 to the 0.8127 Asia low came on post-midterm USD selling and CHF demand after the hot CPI print. Price has ranged since. The early NY rally was rejected at the 0.8186 NY high, and lower highs near 0.8177 now have price pressing the 0.8163 intraday low, between the 50% and 61.8% retrace of the NY leg and below EMA20/50.
Support: 0.81635, 0.81455, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.8177, 0.81858
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8163 intraday low exposes the 0.8146 swing low and the higher-lows trendline
Recovery above the 0.8177 lower highs puts the 0.8186 NY high back in play
Loss of 0.8146 reopens the 0.8127 Asia low
SNB Schlegel speech Thu 13:30 UTC is the next CHF event risk for this range
17:16 UTC
Range after Asia selloff, mild recovery · RSI 58 · price 0.81737
0.8146–0.8186 range since London, pullback low at 0.8164.
The Asia-session USD selloff after the Democratic midterm sweep bottomed at the 0.8127 asian low. Since London the pair has ranged 0.8146–0.8186, with the NY rally rejected at the 0.8186 session high. The pullback low at 0.8164 held near the 50% fib of the NY leg after London close, and RSI(14) sits in the high 50s.
Support: 0.81642, 0.81455, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.81858, 0.82109
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8186 session high breaks the range top and opens the 0.8211 prior high
Loss of the 0.8164 pullback low reopens the 0.8146 range floor; below that the 0.8127 asian low is exposed
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims, both Thu 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
17:02 UTC
Recovering off Asian low, ranging · RSI 58 · price 0.81737
0.8145–0.8186 range after Asian selloff; higher lows from 0.8151.
USDCHF slid from the 0.8205 pre-drop shelf to a 0.8127 Asian low on the Democratic midterm sweep and hot-CPI franc demand. London and NY then built a 0.8145–0.8186 range. The NY rally off the 0.8146 NY low capped at the 0.8186 session high around the ISM print, and the pullback held the 0.8164 swing low near the 50% fib; price sits mid-range after London close with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 0.81642, 0.81455, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.81858, 0.8205
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8186 session high breaks the range top and brings the 0.8205 pre-drop shelf into view
Loss of the 0.8164 swing low and the higher lows line exposes the 0.8146 NY low
Failure at the 0.8146 NY low reopens the 0.8127 Asian low
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims, both Thu 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
16:46 UTC
Rebounding off Asia low, now ranging · RSI 58 · price 0.81723
0.8146–0.8186 range since London, higher lows off 0.8127.
The midterm-driven USD selloff drove an Asia session slide to the 0.8127 asia low. London and NY have since built a 0.8146–0.8186 range on higher lows. The NY push to the 0.8186 session high met rejection, and price is holding the 0.8168 pullback low between the 38.2% and 50% fib levels, with RSI(14) cooling to the high 50s.
Support: 0.81678, 0.81455, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.81858, 0.8200
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8168 pullback low opens a retest of the 0.8146 london low
M15 close above the 0.8186 session high breaks the range top, with the 0.8200 round number next
A break of the higher-lows trendline exposes the 0.8127 asia low
SNB's Schlegel and US Jobless Claims, both Thu 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
16:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since Asia · RSI 61 · price 0.81761
HH/HL chain off the 0.8127 Asia low; NY high rejected, pullback holding mid-leg.
USDCHF has rebuilt from the 0.8127 Asia low set as the Democratic midterm sweep hit USD, with London and NY each printing higher lows. NY ran to a 0.8186 high around the US PMI and ISM releases, then faded to a 0.8168 swing low near the 50% of the NY leg. Late NY, price is holding just above both EMAs.
Support: 0.81678, 0.81455, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.81858, 0.8205
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8168 swing low exposes the 0.8146 ny low and the higher-lows trendline
Close above the 0.8186 ny high extends the HH chain toward the 0.8205 prior range from before the Asia drop
Loss of the 0.8127 asia low would break the recovery structure
SNB's Schlegel (Thu 13:30 UTC) is the next CHF catalyst and could reset this read
16:16 UTC
Recovering intraday after Asia sell-off, momentum fading · RSI 58 · price 0.81712
0.8146–0.8186 range above the Asia low, rising lows intact.
The Asia sell-off after the Democratic midterm sweep bottomed at the 0.8127 asia low. Buyers then held 0.8146–0.8151 through London and NY. The NY leg ran to a 0.8186 session high and faded after the soft ISM Services print, and price is now holding the 38.2% retracement near 0.8170, with the 50% fib at 0.8166.
Support: 0.8166, 0.8151, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8181, 0.8186
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8151 london low and 0.8146 NY low breaks the rising lows and reopens the 0.8127 asia low
Close above the 0.8186 session high, clearing the 0.8181 london high, breaks the intraday range top
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims, both Thu 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
16:02 UTC
Recovering from Asia low, choppy higher lows · RSI 58 · price 0.81712
Broad range 0.8146–0.8186 after Asia selloff, NY high rejected.
The midterm-driven USD selloff bottomed at the 0.8127 asia low. Since then the pair has recovered in a choppy pattern, printing a higher low at 0.8151 after the 0.8146 ny low. NY pushed to a 0.8186 session high around the ISM Services miss before being rejected, and price is now sitting on the 38.2% of the ny rally fib near 0.8170 into London close, with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 0.8151, 0.8146, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8180, 0.8186
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8186 session high, clearing the 0.8180 london high, negates the rejection read and extends the higher-high sequence
Break of the 0.8151 higher low and 0.8146 ny low, plus loss of rising support from the asia low, reopens the 0.8127 asia low
CHF remains sensitive to SNB repricing into Schlegel's speech Thu 13:30 UTC; thin Asia session liquidity could exaggerate moves
15:46 UTC
Recovering from Asia sell-off, higher highs in NY · RSI 65 · price 0.81813
Widening post-Asia range 0.8145–0.8186, testing top.
USD/CHF fell about 80 pips in Asia on the Democratic midterm sweep and a CPI-driven CHF bid, bottoming at the 0.8127 Asia low. The NY session rallied from the 0.8146 NY low through the 0.8178–0.8181 prior highs to a 0.8186 session high, and price is now holding on that former cap. RSI(14) is at 65 and not stretched.
Support: 0.8179, 0.8146, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8186, 0.8200
What it said to watch
Holding above the 0.8179 prior highs keeps the range-top breakout intact; a close back below returns price to the 0.8145–0.8186 range
A close above the 0.8186 session high exposes the 0.8200 round number
Failure at the 0.8146 NY low would leave a lower low and put the 0.8127 Asia low back in focus
Rising lows trendline from the Asia low sits near 0.8148; a break would undercut the recovery structure
SNB's Schlegel speaks Thu 13:30 UTC, the first SNB read after the 1.5% CPI beat, and could shift CHF sharply
15:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher low in place · RSI 59 · price 0.81826
Higher low at 0.8146, break above London highs.
The NY session rebounded from the 0.8146 higher low after the ADP beat. It cleared the 0.8179–0.8181 London high, and the session high now sits at 0.8186 with RSI(14) near 59. Price is still below the 0.8203 range floor left before the midterm-driven USD drop in Asia.
Support: 0.8180, 0.81455, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.81858, 0.8203
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.8180 London high would mark the breakout as a false break
A push through the 0.8186 session high exposes the 0.8203 prior range floor
Failure at the higher low (0.8146) reopens the 0.8127 Asian low
SNB Schlegel speech Thu 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
15:16 UTC
Recovering inside a range after the overnight selloff · RSI 58 · price 0.81753
Higher low at 0.8146, price pressing the 0.8180 range top.
USD sold off in Asia on the Democratic midterm sweep, bottoming at the 0.8127 asia low. London then capped price at the 0.8180 session high. The NY dip held a higher low at the 0.8146 ny low, and the fast rebound through the 0.8165 ny breakout has price back testing that cap, with RSI near 58.
Support: 0.8165, 0.8146, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8180, 0.8206
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8180 session high breaks the range top and opens the 0.8206 pre-selloff level
Close back below the 0.8165 ny breakout returns price to mid-range
Loss of the 0.8146 ny low breaks the higher lows line and exposes the 0.8127 asia low
SNB Schlegel (Thu 13:30 UTC) and US jobless claims could reset the CHF leg
15:01 UTC
Recovering off Asia low, range-bound since London · RSI 57 · price 0.81753
0.8145–0.8181 range with higher lows; price testing range top.
The midterm-driven Asia selloff bottomed at the 0.8127 asia low. Since London the pair has ranged 0.8145–0.8181, and the 0.8147 ny low held as a higher low after the ADP beat. A breakout through 0.8165 in the last hour has price retesting the 0.8181 session high as ISM Services prints, with RSI(14) in the mid-50s.
Support: 0.8165, 0.8147, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8181, 0.8200
What it said to watch
ISM Services (15:00 UTC, f/c 54.8) is printing now and could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.8181 session high breaks the range top; the 0.8200 round number is the next reference
Loss of the 0.8165 breakout level puts the 0.8147 ny low back in play
A break below the higher-low line exposes the 0.8127 asia low
SNB's Schlegel speaks Thu 13:30 UTC, a CHF-side risk to the structure
14:46 UTC
Sideways after the Asia sell-off, lower highs since late morning · RSI 48 · price 0.81589
0.8146–0.8181 range since London open, lower high at 0.8164 in NY.
The midterm-driven USD slide in Asia bottomed at the 0.8127 8-week low. Since London open price has held a 0.8146–0.8181 range, with the London high at 0.8181 capping, the ADP beat lifting price off the 0.8146 NY low, and a lower high at 0.8164. Price sits at the 38.2% fib of the 11:00–13:00 drop and above the London low at 0.8151, just under EMA20/50.
Support: 0.8151, 0.8146, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8164, 0.8181
What it said to watch
S&P Global PMI is due now and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.8); a sub-53.5 print would put the 0.8146 NY low and London low under pressure
An M15 close above the 0.8164 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the London high at 0.8181
A close below the 0.8146 NY low reopens the 0.8127 8-week low
Lower low below London low, bouncing into 50% retrace.
London capped USDCHF with a double top at 0.8179–0.8181, then sold off into the NY open to a 0.8146 session low, undercutting the 0.8151 London low before the ADP beat (86K vs 69K) triggered a bounce. Price is now retracing toward the 50% fib near 0.8163, just above EMA20 with RSI(14) near 42. The 0.8127 election low from the post-vote USD flush remains the overnight floor.
Support: 0.81455, 0.8151, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.8165, 0.8180
What it said to watch
S&P Global PMI 14:45 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.8) could materially shift this read. A sub-54 print puts the 0.8127 election low back in view.
An M15 close above the 0.8165 ema50 and the 50% fib reopens the 0.8180 double top.
Failure to hold the 0.8146 session low extends the lower-low sequence.
14:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 41 · price 0.81572
Lower high at 0.8181, NY low 0.8146, small bounce below EMAs.
The midterm-driven USD selloff in Asia hit the 0.8127 Asia low. A London rebound then stalled at 0.8181, and NY pushed back to the 0.8146 NY low despite the ADP beat. Price is now hovering near the 38.2% retrace of the London-NY drop at 0.8159, below the ema20 at 0.8162, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 0.81455, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.8162, 0.81806
What it said to watch
ISM Services at 15:00 UTC (S&P PMI 14:45) could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 0.8146 ny low exposes the 0.8127 asia low
M15 close back above the ema20 and the 50% retrace near 0.8163 reopens the 0.8181 london high
14:02 UTC
Rebound faded, lower highs into NY · RSI 37 · price 0.81572
Double top at 0.8180, lower low at 0.8146 in NY, price back above London low.
The post-midterm USD flush hit at the Asia open and printed the 0.8127 Asian low. London's rebound ran into a double top at 0.8180 and rolled over. Early NY broke below the 0.8151 London low to 0.8146, close to the rebound fib 61.8%, then reclaimed it. Price sits under a falling trendline whose latest lower high is 0.8162.
Support: 0.8151, 0.81455, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.81616, 0.8180
What it said to watch
ISM Services 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.8), with S&P PMI at 14:45, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.8162 lower high breaks the falling trendline
Failure to hold the 0.8151 London low reopens the 0.8146 NY low
Loss of 0.8146 exposes the 0.8127 Asian low
13:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 45 · price 0.81554
Lower highs from 0.8181 London high, London low broken, retest in progress.
USDCHF faded from the 0.8181 London high into the NY open, breaking the 0.8151 London low and printing a 0.8146 NY low just beyond the 61.8% retrace of the 0.8127 Asia low to London high rebound. The ADP bar bounced only modestly, leaving price at the 50% mark and below the 0.8162 lower high, with midterm-driven USD softness and the hot Swiss CPI backdrop keeping the tape heavy and RSI(14) at 45.
Support: 0.8151, 0.8146, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8162, 0.8181
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8151 London low on this retest, followed by a close below the 0.8146 NY low, exposes the 0.8127 Asia low
M15 close above the 0.8162 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 0.8181 London high
ISM Services PMI at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.8) could materially shift this read
13:31 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since London · RSI 42 · price 0.81534
London rebound capped at 0.8180, NY slipping back to 61.8% fib.
The post-midterm Asia selloff bottomed at the 0.8127 asia low. The London rebound then met rejection at the 0.8180 london high, and the NY session has printed lower highs since, dipping through the 0.8151 london low to a 0.8145 ny low near the 61.8% fib as ADP hits. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) near 42 and no extreme.
Support: 0.8151, 0.81455, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.8161, 0.81806
What it said to watch
ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
M15 close back below 0.8145 ny low and the 61.8% fib exposes the 0.8127 asia low
A close above 0.8161 ema20 and the lower-highs trendline breaks the NY pullback sequence
Recovery through the 0.8180 london high would negate the rejection read
London range 0.8150–0.8180, price testing range base.
The Democratic-sweep USD sell-off drove an Asia-session slide to the 0.8127 asian low. London's rebound met rejection twice at the 0.8180 range top, and price is back on the 0.8150 london low, inside the 50–61.8% fib retrace of the rebound, with RSI(14) at 39 and price below the ema20 near 0.8162 as ADP hits.
Support: 0.8150, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8162, 0.8180
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8150 london low breaks the London range and exposes the 0.8127 asian low
Reclaim of the ema20 near 0.8162 returns price to mid-range and keeps the range read intact
ADP releasing now (f/c 69K), then ISM Services at 15:00 UTC, could materially shift this read; a soft print adds pressure on the range base
13:01 UTC
Rebound stalling, rolling back to range floor · RSI 40 · price 0.81519
0.8150–0.8180 range since 07:00 UTC; equal highs capped, now testing floor.
The Asia rebound off the 0.8127 election low, set on the Democratic sweep, was rejected twice at the 0.8180 session high (07:00 and 11:00 UTC). Price is back on the 0.8150 london low, between the 50% and 61.8% retrace of the rebound, with RSI(14) near 40 and ADP due in minutes.
Support: 0.8150, 0.8133, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8167, 0.8181
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8150 london low breaks the range and exposes the 0.8133 swing low, then the 0.8127 election low
Reclaim of the 0.8167 range top puts the 0.8180 session high back in play
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a miss aligns with the digest's 0.8127 retest scenario
London range 0.8151–0.8180, price testing range low.
USD selling after the Democratic Congress sweep drove USD/CHF from the 0.8211 pre-drop shelf to an Asia low of 0.8127. The rebound stalled at the 61.8% fib, and 0.8180, the London high, was rejected twice. Price is back on the 0.8151 London low late in London with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 0.8151, 0.8133, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8180, 0.8211
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.8151 london low breaks the London range and exposes the 0.8133 asia swing and the 0.8127 asia low
Holding 0.8151 into the NY open keeps the 0.8151–0.8180 range intact
Close above 0.8180 london high clears the 61.8% fib and opens the 0.8211 pre-drop shelf
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:31 UTC
Post-drop recovery stalling, rolling over · RSI 45 · price 0.81595
London range 0.8151–0.8181 inside the wider Asian range; twin rejection at the 61.8% fib.
The Democrats' Congress sweep drove the Asia-session slide from the 0.8211 pre-vote level to the 0.8127 asia low. The rebound was rejected twice at 0.8179–0.8181, the London high and the 61.8% fib, and London has since held a 0.8151–0.8181 range; price is back at the 38.2% near 0.8159 ahead of NY open, with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 0.8151, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8181, 0.8211
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.8151 london low breaks the London range and confirms a lower high at 0.8181
A reclaim of the 0.8181 london high / 61.8% fib negates the rejection and opens the 0.8211 pre-vote level
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a soft print puts the 0.8127 asia low back in focus
Higher lows from 0.8127, capped twice at the 0.8180 session high.
The post-midterm USD selloff in Asia hit an 8wk low at 0.8127. London has since retraced to the 61.8% fib of that drop and was rejected twice at the 0.8180–0.8181 session high. Late London, price is holding just above the 0.8167 pullback low inside a 0.8151–0.8181 range, with the London low still well above the overnight trough.
Support: 0.8167, 0.8151, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8181, 0.8211
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8181 session high clears the 61.8% fib cap and opens the path to the 0.8211 pre-drop high
Break below the 0.8167 pullback low and rising support shifts focus to the 0.8151 London low
Failure to hold the 0.8151 London low reopens the 0.8127 8wk low
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:01 UTC
Rebound from Asia low, capped at 61.8% retrace · RSI 57 · price 0.81711
Higher low at 0.8151 after Asia low; double cap near 0.8180.
The Democrats' midterm sweep drove USDCHF from the 0.8211 selloff top to an Asia low at 0.8127. The rebound has been rejected twice at the 61.8% retrace and London high near 0.8179–0.8181, with the 0.8151 London low holding as a higher low. Price is now drifting mid-session toward the 0.8167 swing low.
Support: 0.8167, 0.8151, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8181, 0.8211
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8181 London high opens the path back to the 0.8211 selloff top
Break of the 0.8167 swing low puts the 0.8151 London low back in play
Failure to hold 0.8151 exposes the 0.8127 Asia low and voids the higher-low structure
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
11:46 UTC
Recovery off overnight low, stalling under session high · RSI 58 · price 0.81734
Higher low at 0.8151 after 0.8127 low; London range 0.8151–0.8181.
The Democratic midterm sweep drove USD/CHF to the 0.8127 Asia low. London has since printed a higher London low at 0.8151 and a swing low at 0.8157 within a 0.8151–0.8181 range. Price is drifting just under the 0.8181 session high after a second rejection at the 0.8179 London-open high, with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 0.81573, 0.8151, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.81806, 0.8204
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8181 session high opens the 0.8200–0.8204 prior range from before the drop
Break of the 0.8157 swing low and 0.8151 London low takes out the rising lows line, with the 0.8127 Asia low next
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read in the NY session
11:31 UTC
Recovering after Asia sell-off, capped at 0.8180 · RSI 61 · price 0.8176
Higher low at 0.8151 above Asia low, triple cap at 0.8180.
USD/CHF shed about 85 pips in Asia to 0.8127 as the Democratic midterm sweep hit the dollar and the hot Swiss CPI kept CHF bid. The London-open dip held 0.8151 for a higher low along the rising lows line, but mid-London price is stalling at 0.8180, the fib 61.8 retrace of the Asia drop, with three rejections there since 07:15 UTC.
Support: 0.8151, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8180, 0.8205
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8180 (fib 61.8) opens the pre-drop shelf near 0.8205
Break below the London low at 0.8151 takes out the rising lows line and reopens the Asia low at 0.8127
ADP at 13:15 UTC, then ISM Services at 15:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
11:16 UTC
Rebound off Asia low, stalling under London high · RSI 61 · price 0.81744
London range 0.8151–0.8180 with higher lows.
The Asia-session midterm selloff bottomed at the 0.8127 asia low. London has since held a 0.8151–0.8180 range with rising lows, the latest swing low at 0.8157. Price is easing just under the 0.8180 london high after a rejection there at 10:30 UTC, RSI(14) near 61, and the London low sits close to the 50% fib of the asia leg.
Support: 0.81573, 0.8151, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.8180, 0.8200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8180 london high breaks the range and opens the 0.8200 round number
Loss of the 0.8157 swing low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 0.8151 london low
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read in NY hours
11:02 UTC
Recovery from Asia low, higher lows · RSI 61 · price 0.81744
Higher-low sequence capped at 0.8178–0.8180.
The Democratic sweep drove a USD flush to the 0.8127 asia low. Since then, a rising trendline of higher lows has lifted price back to the 0.8178–0.8180 session high. The first test at London open was rejected, and the current late-London retest is stalling just below it with RSI(14) near 61, not stretched.
Support: 0.8160, 0.8151, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8180, 0.8217
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.8180 session high breaks the double cap and opens the path toward the 0.8217 prior high
A break of the rising trendline and fib 38.2 near 0.8160 puts the 0.8151 london low back in play
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a soft print would reopen the 0.8127 asia low
10:46 UTC
Recovering from Asia low, higher low in place · RSI 55 · price 0.81752
Higher low at 0.8151, breaking out of London range into session high.
The Asia session selloff on the Democratic sweep bottomed at the 0.8127 asia low. The rebound has since held a higher low at the 0.8151 london low, roughly a 54% fib retracement of the recovery leg. Price is now lifting out of the 0.8155–0.8167 London range and testing the 0.8179 session high, with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 0.8167, 0.8151, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8179, 0.8205
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8179 session high opens the 0.8205 pre-drop shelf from late NY
Slip back below the 0.8167 range top returns price to the London range; failure at the 0.8151 london low breaks the higher-low trendline
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a soft print reopens the 0.8127 asia low
London compressing inside 0.8151–0.8167 after Asia high rejection.
The Democratic Congress sweep drove an 84-pip slide from the 0.8211 pre-drop high to the 0.8127 8-week low in Asia. The rebound was rejected at the 0.8179 Asia high, the 61.8% fib of that drop. London has since compressed between the 0.8151 London low and the 0.8167 London high around the 38.2% fib, with lower highs off 0.8179 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.8151, 0.8133, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8167, 0.8179, 0.8211
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8151 London low exposes the 0.8133 swing low and the 0.8127 8-week low
M15 close above the 0.8167 London high and lower-highs line reopens the 0.8179 Asia high / 61.8% fib
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could break the London range in either direction
Reclaim of the 0.8211 pre-drop level would erase the election move
Tight 0.8154–0.8167 range inside the wider Asian range.
The Democratic Congress sweep drove a USD sell-off in the Asia session, taking the pair from 0.8211 to the 0.8127 Asian low. London opened with a rebound that was rejected at the 0.8179 London high. Price is now compressing between the 0.8154 lows and the 0.8167 range top, sitting on a flat EMA20, with the 0.8151 London low holding near the 50% retrace of the Asian low to London high leg.
Support: 0.8151, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8167, 0.8179
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8167 range top reopens the 0.8179 London high
Loss of the 0.8151 London low exposes the 61.8% retrace near 0.8147, then the 0.8127 Asian low
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:02 UTC
Sharp Asian sell-off, partial rebound now stalling · RSI 46 · price 0.81645
London compressing 0.8151–0.8167 below rebound high.
The Democratic sweep knocked USDCHF from 0.8206 to an Asian low and eight-week trough at 0.8127. The rebound stalled at 0.8179, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the drop. London has since held a tight 0.8151–0.8167 range around the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) near 46 and price just under both EMAs.
Support: 0.8151, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8167, 0.8179
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8167 range top reopens the 0.8179 rebound high
Failure to hold the 0.8151 london low exposes the 0.8127 asian low
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could break the London range either way
Lower high at 0.8179, higher low at 0.8151, tight London range.
The Asia session slide on the Democratic sweep took USDCHF from 0.8211 to an asia low at 0.8127, and the rebound saw rejection at 0.8179, the fib 61.8 retracement of that drop. London open pulled back to a london low at 0.8151, a higher low, and price is now coiling under the range top at 0.8167 around EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 0.8151, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8167, 0.8179, 0.8200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8167 range top puts the fib 61.8 at 0.8179 back in play, with the 0.8200 round number beyond
Failure to hold the 0.8151 london low breaks the higher-low line and reopens the 0.8127 asia low
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC (NY session) could materially shift this read
09:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in consolidation · RSI 44 · price 0.81622
Lower highs since London open, tight 0.8151–0.8167 box.
The post-midterm USD sell-off and hot Swiss CPI drove an ~85-pip slide around the daily rollover, from 0.8210 to the 0.8127 asian low. The early rebound met rejection at the 0.8179 london high. London has since held a 0.8151–0.8167 consolidation, with the session low sitting near the 50% retrace of the Asian-London leg.
Support: 0.8151, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8167, 0.8179
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8151 session low exposes the 0.8127 asian low
Close above the 0.8167 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the consolidation; 0.8179 london high is next
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.8179, compressing above London low.
Asia sold off to the 0.8127 asia low on the Democratic sweep and the CHF bid, then recovered into London open before rejection at the 0.8179 london high. London has since printed lower highs and is compressing between the 0.8151 london low and the 0.8165 range top, holding near the 50% fib of the recovery, with RSI(14) neutral at 45.
Support: 0.8151, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8165, 0.8179
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8151 london low and 50% fib exposes the 61.8% near 0.8147 and the 0.8127 asia low
Close above the 0.8165 range top breaks the lower-high sequence; the 0.8179 london high is the next cap
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:01 UTC
Post-drop rebound fading, lower highs in London · RSI 45 · price 0.81616
Sell-off from 0.8211 to 0.8127, 61.8% rebound rejected, London lower highs.
The Democratic sweep drove an Asia session slide from the pre-drop hi at 0.8211 to the asia low at 0.8127, and the rebound stalled at the 61.8% fib at 0.8179. Price has slipped below both EMAs in London, with a london low at 0.8151 and lower highs capping price below the 50% fib at 0.8169.
Support: 0.8151, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8169, 0.8179, 0.8211
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 50% fib at 0.8169 breaks the London lower-high sequence and reopens the 61.8% fib at 0.8179
Failure to hold the london low at 0.8151 exposes the asia low at 0.8127
Reclaiming 0.8179 puts the pre-drop hi at 0.8211 back in focus
US ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower high at 0.8179 after Asia sell-off, London holding above 0.8151.
The USD sell-off on the Democratic sweep took USDCHF from the 0.8205 pre-drop shelf to an Asian low of 0.8127. The rebound stalled with a rejection at 0.8179, the 61.8% fib of the drop. Early London dipped to 0.8151 and price is now pinned near the 38.2% at 0.8159, below both EMAs with RSI(14) neutral at ~45.
Support: 0.8151, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8179, 0.8205
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8151 London low exposes the 0.8127 Asian low
Close back above the 0.8179 rejection high negates the lower high and opens the 0.8205 pre-drop shelf
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:31 UTC
Rebound off the Asian low, faded at London open · RSI 45 · price 0.81622
Recovery from 0.8127 rejected at 0.8179; pullback holding the 50% retrace.
Asia sold USD/CHF down to the 0.8127 asian low on the post-midterm USD drop and the hot Swiss CPI. A 50-pip rebound was rejected at the 0.8179 london high, and the pullback found a floor at the 0.8151 london low, close to the 50% retrace of the move. Price is back under ema20 near 0.8165 with RSI(14) around 45, so early London is rotating inside the 0.8151–0.8179 band.
Support: 0.8151, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8165, 0.8179
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8151 london low and 50% retrace exposes the 0.8127 asian low
Reclaiming ema20 at 0.8165, then an M15 close above the 0.8179 london high, would resume the rebound structure
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
08:16 UTC
Post-selloff rebound fading, lower high in place · RSI 46 · price 0.81586
Asia sell-off, retrace capped at 61.8% fib, pulling back early London.
The Democratic Congress sweep drove an Asia session slide from 0.8211 to the 0.8127 asian low. The rebound was rejected at the 61.8% fib at 0.8179 on the London open, and price has since slipped back under the fib 50% at 0.8169 to test the london low near 0.8157.
Support: 0.8157, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8169, 0.8179
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the london low at 0.8157 opens a retest of the 0.8127 asian low
M15 close back above the 0.8179 fib 61.8% invalidates the lower-high read
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:01 UTC
Rebound from overnight low fading into London · RSI 50 · price 0.81586
Higher low at 0.8133 after 0.8127 low, London open lower high at 0.8179.
The US midterm result knocked USD/CHF out of its 0.8201–0.8211 prior range late in the NY-to-Asia handover, and the pair slid to an Asian low of 0.8127, extended by the hot Swiss CPI backdrop. A 0.8133 higher low and a break of 0.8155 carried the rebound to 0.8179, but the London high was rejected within the first hour. Price is now retesting the 0.8155 breakout level near the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) back at neutral.
Support: 0.8155, 0.8147, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8179, 0.8210
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8155 breakout level and the 61.8% fib at 0.8147 puts the 0.8127 Asian low back in play
Reclaim of the 0.8179 London high revives the rebound toward the 0.8210 prior range
US ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain off 0.8127, rejected at the 61.8% fib.
USDCHF fell from 0.8211 to a 0.8127 session low through the Asia session. The Democratic sweep hit the dollar on top of Tuesday's hot Swiss CPI, and price then built a higher-low chain. The London open printed a rejection at 0.8179, the London high and the 61.8% fib of the sell-off, breaking the rising line; price now sits near the 50% at 0.8169 with RSI(14) around 48.
Support: 0.8163, 0.8155, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8179, 0.8192
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.8163 swing low ends the higher-low chain, exposing the 0.8155 prior pivot and the 0.8127 session low
Close back above the 0.8179 London high / 61.8% opens the 0.8192 breakdown pt from the overnight drop
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:31 UTC
Rebound inside Asian downswing · RSI 69 · price 0.81762
Triple bottom at Asian low, higher lows into London open.
The Asia session sold off from the 0.8211 pre-drop high to an 0.8127 Asian low as USD slid on the Democratic sweep. A triple bottom near 0.8130 and a break of 0.8156 lifted price into the 61.8% fib of that drop at 0.8179 by London open, with a higher low at 0.8163 and RSI(14) near 69.
Support: 0.8163, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8179, 0.8211
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8179 (61.8% fib) opens the path toward the 0.8211 pre-drop high
Loss of the 0.8163 higher low returns focus to the 0.8127 Asian low
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off Asian low, capped near 61.8% retrace.
The Democratic sweep knocked USD/CHF roughly 80 pips lower at the Asia open, from 0.8211 to the 0.8127 Asian low. Price has since reclaimed the 0.8163 breakout level and is building higher lows. Into the London open it is pressing the 0.8177 rebound high, the 61.8% fib (0.8179) and the EMA50, with RSI(14) a neutral 56.
Support: 0.8163, 0.8149, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8177, 0.8190
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8177 rebound high and 61.8% fib opens the 0.8190 breakdown area
Loss of the 0.8163 breakout level and the higher lows line points back to the 0.8149 prior low, then the 0.8127 Asian low
US ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
HH/HL recovery off 0.8127 base, capped near 61.8% fib.
Asia knocked USDCHF about 84 pips off the 0.8211 asian high on the Democratic midterm sweep, basing in a double bottom at 0.8127–0.8133 before a higher-low chain reclaimed the 50% fib at 0.8169. London open finds price stalling at 0.8177–0.8178, the session high and 61.8% fib, with RSI(14) mid-50s and price pressing EMA50.
Support: 0.8169, 0.8163, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8178, 0.8190, 0.8211
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8178 61.8% fib opens the 0.8190 bounce high, where the Asian breakdown stalled
Loss of the 0.8163 higher low breaks the recovery chain; below the 0.8127 asian low the drop resumes
US ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
06:46 UTC
Asia selloff, corrective bounce · RSI 57 · price 0.81752
Triple bottom 0.8127–0.8135, retracing Asia drop.
Asia session sold off on the Democratic midterm sweep, taking USDCHF from 0.8211 to the 0.8127 asian low, where a triple bottom formed. The breakout above the 0.8155 base top held a higher low at 0.8163 on rising support. Price is now pressing the 0.8176 session high and EMA50 inside the 50–61.8% fib zone into the London open.
Support: 0.81629, 0.81555, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.81755, 0.81789, 0.81915
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8179 61.8% fib opens the 0.8192 bounce high
A break below the 0.8163 higher low and rising support puts the 0.8155 base top back in focus
Failure to hold the 0.8155 base top reopens the 0.8127 asian low
ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Double bottom near 0.8130, higher lows into 50% retrace.
Midterm results hit the USD in Asia, extending Tuesday's CPI-driven CHF bid and dropping USD/CHF from 0.8211 to the 0.8127 asian low. A double bottom at 0.8127–0.8133 has lifted price to the 50% retracement of the selloff fib near 0.8172, where the 0.8175 rebound high is capping into London open with RSI(14) in the mid-60s.
Support: 0.8163, 0.8149, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.81755, 0.8179, 0.8192
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8175 rebound high and the 0.8179 61.8 fib opens the 0.8192 asia pivot
Loss of the 0.8163 pullback low breaks the higher lows line and puts the 0.8149 cpi low back in play
Break below the 0.8127 asian low resumes the downtrend
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
06:16 UTC
Sharp Asia selloff, intraday rebound in progress · RSI 61 · price 0.81682
The Asia drop from 0.8211 to the 0.8127 asian low followed the midterm results that handed Democrats Congress and hit the USD. A double bottom at 0.8127/0.8133 and a break of the 0.8155 prior high lifted price to the 50% retrace. The 0.8174 rebound high is capping into the London open, with the 0.8163 pullback low underneath.
Support: 0.8163, 0.8155, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8174, 0.8179, 0.8188
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8179 61.8% fib opens the 0.8188 breakdown pivot
Loss of the 0.8163 pullback low, then a close back under the 0.8155 prior high, negates the double bottom and reopens the 0.8127 asian low
US ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Asian sell-off, then a higher-low rebound capped near the 50–61.8% retrace.
USDCHF fell about 83 pips in the Asia session as the Democratic midterm sweep hit USD, bottoming at the 0.8127 Asian low. A higher low at 0.8133 led to a break of the 0.8155 base top and a retrace to the 50% level. Price is now coiling under the 0.8174 bounce high, where EMA50 sits, with RSI(14) neutral near 52 ahead of the London open.
Support: 0.81629, 0.81555, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.8174, 0.81915, 0.82108
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.8174 bounce high and the 61.8% retrace at 0.8179 reopens the 0.8192 swing high, then the 0.8211 Asian high
Loss of the 0.8163 micro low and the 0.8155 base top returns price to the 0.8127 Asian low
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a strong beat is the relief-bounce risk for USD
05:46 UTC
Downtrend, rebounding into late Asia · RSI 57 · price 0.81695
Post-drop retrace; double bottom 0.8127/0.8133.
The Asia session sold off from 0.8210 to the 0.8127 asia low as the Democrats' House win hit USD, adding to the CHF bid from yesterday's hot Swiss CPI. A higher low at 0.8133 completed a double bottom, and the 04:45 UTC break above 0.8155 lifted price through the 38.2% fib of the 0.8217–0.8127 drop. It is now stalling at the 0.8174 rebound high, near the 50% retrace, into London open.
Support: 0.8162, 0.8133, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8174, 0.8183
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.8% fib at 0.8183 turns the rebound into a deeper retrace of the overnight drop
Failure to hold the 38.2% fib at 0.8162 and a return below the 0.8133 higher low reopens the 0.8127 asia low
US ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Sharp Asia sell-off, base 0.8127–0.8162, now broken higher into 50% retrace.
The Democratic House win hit USD in Asia. USD/CHF slid from the 0.8211 asian high to a seven-week low at 0.8127, then built a base with a higher low at 0.8133. Late Asia broke the 0.8162 range top, and the session high is now capping at the 0.8170 50% fib of the drop, ahead of the London open.
Support: 0.8162, 0.8133, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8170, 0.8188, 0.8211
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8162 range top returns price to the 0.8127–0.8162 base
Close above the 0.8170 50% fib exposes the 0.8188 breakdown pt where the Asia slide accelerated
Loss of the 0.8133 higher low and the 0.8127 asian low confirms a lower-low
US ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
05:16 UTC
Downtrend, rebounding off Asia low · RSI 48 · price 0.81615
Asia flush to 0.8127, then higher lows and a neckline break into the Asia high.
The Democrats' House win drove an ~83-pip Asia session flush from 0.8211 to a 0.8127 session low. Higher lows at 0.8133 have since formed a double bottom, and the late-Asia push cleared the 0.8156 neckline to test the 0.8162 Asia high, which sits on the 38.2% retracement of the asia drop fib. Price is above EMA20 but well below EMA50, with RSI(14) near 48 into London open.
Support: 0.8156, 0.8149, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8162, 0.8169, 0.8179
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8162 asia high opens fib 50% at 0.8169 and fib 61.8% at 0.8179
Slip back below the 0.8156 neckline and yesterday's london low at 0.8149 puts the 0.8127 session low back in play
Break of the rising lows line from 0.8127/0.8133 negates the double bottom
US ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Sharp Asia selloff from 0.8211, then a 0.8127–0.8162 base with higher lows; price testing the range top.
USDCHF fell about 84 pips in the Asia session, from 0.8211 to a 0.8127 session low, as early US midterm tallies hit USD and extended the CHF bid from Swiss CPI. Higher lows have formed off the session low. The latest bar is pressing the 0.8162 range top, which sits near the 38.2% fib of the drop, and RSI(14) has recovered to 49.
Support: 0.81556, 0.81491, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.8162, 0.81691, 0.81789
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.8162 range top exposes the 50% fib at 0.8169 and the 61.8% fib at 0.8179.
A slip back below the 0.8155 pivot and Monday's 0.8149 CPI low returns price to the base.
A break of the higher lows and the 0.8127 session low would confirm a lower-low.
London open and Senate race calls could materially shift this read. ADP and ISM Services later Wednesday are the next US data risk.
04:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 36 · price 0.81331
Lower highs below 0.8149, base forming at 0.8127–0.8135.
The Asia session extended the USD slide on early midterm tallies. Price broke yesterday's CPI-driven prior low at 0.8149 and printed a session low at 0.81273, and the bounce high at 0.8162 stalled near the 38.2% of the Asia selloff. Lower highs at 0.8156 and 0.8148 have since pressed price back to the session low, with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 0.81273, 0.8120
Resistance: 0.81491, 0.81556, 0.81619
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.8149 prior low and the lower-high trendline would break the descending sequence.
A break of the 0.81273 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.8120 round number.
Senate race calls into the London open could materially shift this read. US ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) follow in the NY session.
04:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after election-driven leg · RSI 37 · price 0.8143
Lower highs from 0.8162 inside a 0.8127–0.8156 Asia range.
Early US midterm tallies knocked USD/CHF from 0.8211 to a 0.8127 Asia session low, extending the post-Swiss CPI slide through yesterday's 0.8149 London low. Price is now chopping between the 0.8134 swing low and the 0.8156 swing high under a falling line of lower highs. RSI(14) is near 37 and rebounding from deeper readings.
Support: 0.8134, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8149, 0.8156, 0.8162
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8156 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and brings the 38.2% fib near 0.8159 and the 0.8162 lower high into play
Failure to hold the 0.8134 swing low and the 0.8127 session low resumes the downtrend leg
The prior low at 0.8149 has capped the last two bounces; acceptance back above it weakens the breakdown read
Senate race calls through Asia and London hours could materially shift this read
Lower highs below broken cpi low, Asia session range 0.8127–0.8211.
The Asia drop from 0.8211 took out yesterday's post-Swiss CPI low at 0.8149 as early US midterm tallies showing Democratic gains knocked USD lower. The session low at 0.8127 has held so far, but lower highs at the 0.8162 bounce high and the 0.8156 swing high were both rejected. Price is compressing under the cpi low with RSI(14) at 38, not oversold.
Support: 0.81373, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.81491, 0.81556, 0.81619
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8156 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.8162 bounce high in play
Failure to hold the 0.8137 swing low reopens the 0.8127 session low
Reclaim of the 0.8149 cpi low would put the 38.2% retrace of the Asia drop near 0.8159 in focus
Senate race calls through Wednesday: a split Congress could spark a USD relief bounce
London open in about 3h; ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC land in the NY session
Lower highs and lower lows after the Asia sell-off; tight 0.8127–0.8156 band.
The Asia session dropped about 84 pips, from the 0.8211 high to a 0.8127 session low, as early midterm tallies hit the USD. That move broke yesterday's London prior low at 0.8149. Price is now coiling between the session low and a lower high at 0.8156, with RSI(14) back near 38 after sub-30 readings during the sell-off.
Support: 0.81273, 0.8100
Resistance: 0.81491, 0.81556, 0.81619
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8149 prior low undercuts the breakdown read
Break of the 0.8127 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.8100 round number
Push through the 0.8156 lower high and the 0.8162 swing high puts the 38.2–50% fib of the Asia sell-off (0.8159–0.8169) in play
Senate calls through the session, then ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
03:46 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off Asia low · RSI 35 · price 0.81509
Lower highs from 0.8211, testing broken prior low.
Asia session sold off from 0.8211 to 0.8127 as early midterm tallies hit the USD, breaking below yesterday's 0.8149 prior low. A sharp bounce stalled at the descending trendline near 0.8156, short of the 38.2% fib of the drop, and price now sits just above the prior low.
Support: 0.8149, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8156, 0.8162, 0.8175
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 0.8149 prior low, then a break of the 0.8127 asia low, extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the trendline and the 0.8162 bounce high opens a deeper retrace toward the 0.8175 breakdown area
Senate control calls and close-race counts during Asia and London could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs and lower lows through Asia · RSI 28 · price 0.81362
Asia sell-off broke below the prior London low; bounce to 0.8162 capped as a lower high.
Asia broke the late-NY 0.8204–0.8211 range and fell about 85 pips from the 0.8211 Asian high as early midterm tallies hit the USD, with CHF already firm on the hot CPI. Price cut through the prior London low at 0.8149 and printed an Asia low at 0.8127. The bounce to 0.8162 capped as a lower high under the descending line, and RSI(14) sits near 28.
Support: 0.81273, 0.8100
Resistance: 0.8149, 0.81619, 0.82108
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.8149 prior low would undo the break and point to a range read
A break above the 0.8162 lower high would invalidate the descending line
Failure to hold the 0.8127 Asia low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.8100 round number
Senate calls and a contested count, plus ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs and lower lows through Asia · RSI 26 · price 0.8131
Post-CPI low broken, lower high at 0.8162, fresh session low.
The Asia session sold off from 0.8211 on early midterm tallies showing Democratic gains. Price broke Tuesday's post-CPI low at 0.8149, set a lower high at 0.8162 and is now pressing the session low at 0.8131. RSI(14) near 26 is oversold, with ATR around 10.5 pips.
Support: 0.8131, 0.8100
Resistance: 0.8149, 0.8162
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.8149 cpi low would turn the break into a false break
A move through the 0.8162 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and the trendline
Failure to hold the 0.8131 session low exposes the 0.8100 round number
House/Senate race calls during Asia/London could shift the USD leg; ADP at 13:15 UTC is the next data risk
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, prior CPI low broken.
Asia session unwound the entire post-CPI recovery as early midterm tallies hit the USD. Price broke through yesterday's 0.8149 cpi low, which was set on the 07:30 UTC Swiss CPI beat, and is pressing the 0.8131 session low. The 01:45–02:00 bounce stalled at a 0.8162 lower high under the descending lower-highs line, with RSI(14) near 22.
Support: 0.8131, 0.8100
Resistance: 0.8149, 0.8162, 0.8192
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8149 cpi low turns the break into a false break
Recovery through the 0.8162 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; the 0.8192 swing high is next above
Failure to hold the 0.8131 session low leaves the 0.8100 round number exposed
Further House/Senate calls through Asia and into London open could materially shift the USD leg
02:46 UTC
Downtrend, bounce faded · RSI 28 · price 0.81457
Lower highs and lows since Asia open; 0.8162 lower high below broken cpi low.
The Asia session sold off ~79 pips from 0.8211 to the 0.8132 asia low as early midterm tallies showing Democratic gains hit the USD, slicing through yesterday's post-CPI cpi low at 0.8149. The bounce stalled at the 38.2% fib of the Asia sell-off near 0.8162. Price is now back under the cpi low and holding just above the 0.8144 micro low, with RSI(14) near 28 and ATR(14) around 10 pips.
Support: 0.81445, 0.81321
Resistance: 0.81491, 0.81619, 0.81915
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.8149 cpi low weakens the range break read
Reclaiming the 0.8162 38.2% fib breaks the lower-high sequence; the 0.8192 lower high caps a deeper retracement
Loss of the 0.8144 micro low exposes the 0.8132 asia low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
House and Senate race calls through the session could materially shift this read; ADP and ISM Services later in the US day are the next data risk
Asia breakdown below Tuesday's range, lower highs intact.
Asia session sold off from 0.8210 as early midterm tallies hit USD. Price broke Tuesday's 0.8149 prior low and reached a 0.8132 session low before snapping back, with RSI(14) recovering from sub-20 to ~33. The bounce is stalling at 0.8162, the 38.2% fib of the drop, still under the lower highs line.
Support: 0.81491, 0.81321
Resistance: 0.81619, 0.81748
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8149 prior low re-exposes the 0.8132 session low
Acceptance above the 0.8162 38.2% fib opens the 0.8175 breakdown shelf and the lower highs line
Further House/Senate calls during Asia could extend or unwind the USD leg; ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) follow later today
02:16 UTC
Downtrend, oversold bounce under way · RSI 28 · price 0.81512
Sharp Asia lower-high/lower-low leg; price retesting broken CPI low.
Asia session dropped about 79 pips from 0.8211 to a 0.8132 swing low as early midterm tallies hit USD. The move broke below Tuesday's Swiss CPI low at 0.8149, and price is now back retesting that level. RSI(14) is near 28 and lower highs stay intact under the descending trendline, with the bounce high at 0.8158 and the fib 38.2 at 0.8162 overhead.
Support: 0.8149, 0.8132
Resistance: 0.8158, 0.8162, 0.8172
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8149 cpi low on an M15 close puts the 0.8132 swing low back in play; a break there extends the lower-low chain
M15 close above the 0.8162 fib 38.2 and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; fib 50 at 0.8172 sits next
Further midterm House/Senate calls during Asia could materially shift this read
ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) later today are the next USD-side catalysts
02:02 UTC
Downtrend, oversold bounce under way · RSI 29 · price 0.81512
Lower highs and lows through Asia, retest of broken cpi low from below.
The Asia session extended Tuesday's CHF bid on the hot Swiss CPI as midterm results landed. Price unwound the 0.8217 NY high, broke the post-CPI cpi low at 0.8149 and set a 0.8132 session low. The last bar's bounce has carried price back to retest 0.8149 from below, with RSI(14) near 29 and ATR running about 10 pips.
Support: 0.8149, 0.8132
Resistance: 0.8158, 0.8162, 0.8175
What it said to watch
Acceptance back above the cpi low at 0.8149 would make the break a false break; rejection there keeps the lower-low sequence intact
A move through the 0.8158 bounce high exposes the 38.2% fib at 0.8162, then the 0.8175 breakdown level
Failure to hold the 0.8132 session low extends the Asia selloff
Senate race calls through Asia/Europe could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 18 · price 0.81511
Asian range broken lower, lower highs, testing prior-day low.
Asia session broke the 0.8203–0.8211 Asian range lower as US midterm results landed. The move extends a 60-pip slide into a retest of yesterday's post-Swiss-CPI low at 0.8149, with RSI(14) near 18 and descending highs at 0.8211 and 0.8192 capping bounces.
Support: 0.8149, 0.8140
Resistance: 0.8162, 0.8175
What it said to watch
M15 close below the cpi low at 0.8149 opens the 0.8140 uob target
Recovery above the 0.8162 break point and the 0.8175 prior low would stall the slide
A break above the descending highs line invalidates the lower-high sequence
Senate race calls through Asia/Europe could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Downtrend, sharp Asia sell-off · RSI 27 · price 0.81662
Broke below the late-NY range; lower highs since the Asia open.
The Asia session sold off about 49 pips from the 0.8211 Asia high as midterm results landed. That broke the late-NY 0.8204–0.8211 range and erased the NY rally, with lower highs at 0.8202 and 0.8192 framing the decline. Price sits at 0.8166 just above the session low, about 13 pips over the 0.8149 cpi low set after the Swiss CPI beat, with RSI(14) near 27 and the Asia sell-off fib capping rebounds.
Support: 0.81622, 0.81491
Resistance: 0.81748, 0.81915, 0.82108
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8149 cpi low would extend the lower-low sequence to a fresh swing low
A reclaim of the 0.8175 prior low, then an M15 close above the 0.8192 lower high, breaks the lower-highs line
Senate race calls through Asia/Europe could materially shift this read
RSI(14) sub-20 on a retest of the session low would mark a stretched move
01:16 UTC
Downtrend, early bounce fading · RSI 31 · price 0.81842
Asia break below late-NY range, lower highs and lower lows.
The Asia session dropped out of the late-NY 0.8202–0.8211 range as midterm results landed, extending to a 0.8175 Asia low through a series of lower highs. The bounce stalled at 0.8192, near a 46% retrace of the Asia drop, and price is back around 0.8184 with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 0.81748, 0.81491
Resistance: 0.81915, 0.8202
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.8192 bounce high breaks the lower-highs sequence; a reclaim of the 0.8202 ny range low puts price back in the prior range
Failure to hold the 0.8175 asia low extends the lower-low chain toward Tuesday's 0.8149 cpi low
Senate race calls through Asia and early Europe could materially shift this read
01:02 UTC
Downtrend after Asia-open range break · RSI 32 · price 0.81842
Late-NY range lost, lower lows into Asia, corrective bounce.
Midterm results hit the USD at the start of the Asia session. Price broke below the late-NY 0.8201–0.8211 range and printed an asia low at 0.8175. The bounce high at 0.8192 stalled at the 38.2% retrace of the drop from the 0.8217 ny high. RSI(14) is near 32 with price below both EMAs, and Tuesday's 0.8149 cpi low from the Swiss CPI beat sits beneath.
Support: 0.81748, 0.81491
Resistance: 0.81915, 0.82013, 0.82169
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8175 asia low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8149 cpi low
M15 close above the 0.8192 bounce high and the 0.8201 range floor puts price back inside the late-NY range
Senate race calls during Asia could materially shift this read; a Democratic sweep is the USD-negative tail
Early Asia saw a 31-pip drop out of the 0.8204–0.8211 NY range as midterm results land, with price now pressing the 0.8180 NY swing low and RSI(14) near 21. The move has retraced about half of Tuesday's rally from the 0.8149 CPI low (hot Swiss CPI) to the 0.8217 jolts high.
Support: 0.8180, 0.81693, 0.81491
Resistance: 0.81892, 0.8200, 0.82169
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8180 NY swing low exposes the 0.8169 pre-cpi low, then the 0.8149 CPI low
M15 close back above the 0.8189 breakdown level and the 0.8200 round number negates the range-break read
Overnight Senate race calls: a Democratic sweep is the USD-negative tail and could extend the Asia move
Late-NY range broken lower in early Asia; testing 38.2% of the 0.8149–0.8217 rally.
The Swiss CPI beat flushed the pair to 0.8149 at 07:30 UTC. USD then rebuilt through London and NY to a 0.8217 session high. Early in the Asia session, as midterm results land, price broke the 0.8201–0.8211 late-NY range and dropped to a 0.8189 Asian low, which sits on the 38.2% retrace, with the 0.8202 bounce high capping so far.
Support: 0.8189, 0.8180
Resistance: 0.8202, 0.8211, 0.8217
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.8189 asian low opens the 50% retrace near 0.8183 and the 0.8180 ny open low
A reclaim of the 0.8202 bounce high and 0.8211 range top negates the range break
The 0.8217 session high marks the top of the post-CPI recovery leg
The Senate call in the midterm count could materially shift this read during Asia hours
Late-NY range broken lower in early Asia; testing 38.2% of CPI-low rally.
The Swiss CPI beat drove the 07:30 UTC flush to the 0.8149 CPI low. London and NY then recovered to a 0.8217 session high before a tight late-NY range held above its 0.8201 floor. Early Asia broke that range floor as midterm results landed, with price sitting on the 38.2% fib and the 0.8189 Asia low, and RSI(14) near 27.
Support: 0.8189, 0.8180, 0.8149
Resistance: 0.8201, 0.8217
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8189 Asia low and 38.2% fib exposes the 0.8180 NY low and the 50% retrace near 0.8183
M15 close back above the 0.8201 range floor negates the range break
A move through the 0.8217 session high would mark a fresh intraday high above the late-NY range
Midterm Senate call and Wed ADP 13:15 UTC / ISM Services 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A break below 0.8180 puts the 0.8149 CPI low back in view
00:01 UTC
Post-CPI recovery leg rolling over, short-term momentum lower · RSI 32 · price 0.81932
Late-NY range 0.8201–0.8211 broken lower, holding near 38.2% fib.
The hot Swiss CPI flushed USDCHF to a cpi low of 0.8149, and firm US data then carried it back to a 0.8217 session high, before it settled into a 0.8201–0.8211 range during NY hours. As midterm results started landing late in NY, price broke the range low and printed a late NY low at 0.8189, right on the 38.2% retracement of the post-CPI rally, with RSI(14) near 32.
Support: 0.81892, 0.81804, 0.81491
Resistance: 0.82013, 0.82169
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8189 late NY low and 38.2% fib exposes the 0.8180 swing low and 50% retracement
M15 close back above the 0.8201 range low negates the range break and reopens the 0.8217 session high
A break of the 0.8180 swing low brings the 0.8149 cpi low back into view
US Senate control call during Asia session could materially shift this read
US ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC later in the day