Lower highs since Monday; tight range 0.8163-0.8176.
USDCHF has printed lower highs since Monday's 0.8254 week high. The sharpest leg came during Wednesday's Asia session, when the Democratic midterm sweep pushed USD into the franc and set the 0.8127 week low; Tuesday's hot Swiss CPI had already driven an earlier flush. Rebounds have stalled between the 38.2% and 50% fib of that decline, and the NY session's ADP-led bounce was capped at the 0.8186 lower high. Price is now compressing just under EMA(20) near 0.8170, with RSI(14) flat near 47.
Support: 0.8163, 0.81455, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.8170, 0.81858, 0.82169
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8186 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 0.8217 Tue high
Failure to hold the 0.8163 range low exposes the 0.8146 NY low and then the 0.8127 week low
Repeated H1 closes back above EMA(20) at 0.8170 would mark the first change in the downtrend's character
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims, both Thu 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs Mon–Wed; 0.8146–0.8186 range since Wed London.
The pair has slid from the 0.8248 weekly open on a sequence of lower highs: 0.8254 Monday, the 0.8217 Tue high and the 0.8186 Wed high, all respecting the lower-highs trendline. The Asia-session selloff on the Democratic midterm sweep printed a 0.8127 week low; the rebound recovered only the 38.2% retracement of the Monday-Wednesday drop. Since London, price has ranged between the 0.8146 NY low and the Wed high, with price pinned on EMA(20), below EMA(50), and RSI(14) flat near 48.
Support: 0.81455, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.81858, 0.82169, 0.82475
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8186 Wed high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 0.8217 Tue high
Failure to hold the 0.8146 NY low exposes the 0.8127 week low, with a break there extending the lower-low sequence
SNB's Schlegel plus US jobless claims and unit labour costs, all Thu 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Fri 13:30 UTC NFP (f/c 65K) is the main event risk for the USD leg into week end
Lower highs/lower lows Mon–Wed; higher low since Wednesday's Asia low.
Since Monday's 0.8248 open the pair has printed lower highs and lower lows, and the Asia-session slide on the Democratic midterm sweep set a week low at 0.8127. Price bounced into a higher low at 0.8146 during NY hours after the mixed US data. The recovery stalled at the 0.8186 range top, near the 61.8% retracement of the tuesday high-to-week-low leg and the lower-highs trendline. Price is now flat just under EMA(20) at 0.8171, with RSI(14) back near 48 after its oversold dip.
Support: 0.81455, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.81707, 0.81858, 0.82169
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8186 range top and lower-highs trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 0.8217 tuesday high
Sustained hold below ema20 at 0.8171 keeps the bounce contained inside the range
Failure to hold the 0.8146 higher low reopens the 0.8127 week low; a break below it extends the lower-low sequence
SNB's Schlegel and US jobless claims, both Thu 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read ahead of Friday's NFP
Lower highs from weekly open; higher low after 0.8127.
USD/CHF has printed lower highs since the 0.8248 weekly open. The dominant leg came in Wednesday's Asia session, when the Democratic midterm sweep drove haven CHF demand to a 0.8127 week low. The NY-session rebound off a 0.8146 higher low after the ADP beat stalled at the 0.8186 rebound high, near the 38.2% fib and the lower-high trendline, and price is now pinned at EMA(20) just below EMA(50) near 0.8182, with RSI(14) flat around 52.
Support: 0.8171, 0.8146, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8186, 0.8217, 0.8248
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8186 rebound high and the lower-high trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 0.8217 lower high, then the 0.8248 weekly open
Failure to hold the 0.8146 higher low and the higher-low trendline reopens the 0.8127 week low
SNB's Schlegel (Thu 13:30 UTC) and US NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs all week; compressing in 0.8145–0.8186 band.
USDCHF has printed lower highs since the 0.8248 weekly open, with two main legs: the hot Swiss CPI in Tuesday's early London session, then the Democratic midterm sweep in Wednesday's Asia session, which took price to the 0.8127 week low. Since then price has compressed between a higher low at 0.8145 and the Wed high at 0.8186 during NY hours, capped between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the week drop and under the lower highs trendline. Price is flat against EMA(20) near 0.8171 and RSI(14) sits at a neutral 49, so the selloff's momentum has faded.
Support: 0.81455, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.81858, 0.82169, 0.82475
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8186 Wed high breaks the lower highs trendline and exposes the 0.8217 lower high
Failure to hold the 0.8145 higher low reopens the 0.8127 week low
SNB Schlegel speech and US jobless claims, both Thu 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
US NFP and earnings Fri 13:30 UTC are the next major risk for the USD leg
Lower highs from weekly open; 0.8146–0.8186 consolidation.
USD/CHF has printed lower highs since the 0.8248 weekly open: 0.8254 Monday, then 0.8217 Tuesday. The hot Swiss CPI drove Tuesday's dip to 0.8149, and post-midterm USD selling in Wednesday's Asia session made the 0.8127 week low. The rebound since has been capped at the 0.8186 Wednesday high, just past the 61.8% retracement of that drop. Price is now chopping in a 0.8146–0.8186 consolidation around EMA(20), with RSI(14) back near 50.
Support: 0.8166, 0.81455, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.81858, 0.82169, 0.82475
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8186 wed high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the sequence and opens 0.8217, the tue high
Loss of the 0.8146 wed dip low exposes the 0.8127 week low
Holding EMA(20) near 0.8166 keeps the consolidation intact; repeated closes below it shift focus to the range floor
SNB Schlegel Thu 13:30 UTC is the main CHF swing risk; Thu US claims and Fri NFP could materially shift this read
Reclaiming the 0.8248 weekly open would undo this week's lower-high structure
Lower highs since Monday; 0.8146–0.8186 consolidation after the week low.
USD/CHF has printed lower highs since Monday's 0.8254 peak near the weekly open. The legs lower came at Monday's London open, on Tuesday's hot Swiss CPI and in Wednesday's Asia session after the Democratic midterm sweep hit the dollar, taking price to a 0.8127 week low with RSI(14) in the mid-20s. Price has since rebuilt into a 0.8146–0.8186 consolidation and sits flat on EMA(20). The NY session rejected the EMA(50) at 0.8186, just under the fib 50% retracement of the week's drop at 0.8190, and today's NY low at 0.8146 is holding below.
Support: 0.81455, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.81858, 0.81904, 0.82169
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8190 fib 50% and EMA(50) would challenge the lower-highs trendline and expose Tuesday's high at 0.8217
Failure to hold the 0.8146 NY low reopens the 0.8127 week low and resumes the lower-low sequence
SNB's Schlegel Thu 13:30 UTC, alongside US Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Costs at the same time, could materially shift this read
Fed's Williams Fri 09:30 UTC and US Nonfarm Payrolls Fri 13:30 UTC are the next event risk for the dollar leg
Lower highs from Monday's 0.8253 high; higher low forming at 0.8146 today.
USD/CHF has printed lower highs since Monday's 0.8253 peak, below the 0.8248 weekly open. Monday's London-session slide and Tuesday's CHF CPI beat set the tone, Tuesday's NY rebound stalled at the 0.8217 lower high, and the Democratic midterm sweep then drove an Asia-session flush to the 0.8127 week low. Since then, buyers have defended a 0.8146 higher low after the ADP beat, and price is pressing the 38.2% retracement of the week's drop near 0.8176, capped by the 0.8181 day high. Price is just above ema20 but still under EMA(50), with RSI(14) back around 53.
Support: 0.8172, 0.8146, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8181, 0.8217, 0.8248
What it said to watch
ISM Services (15:00 UTC, f/c 54.8) lands in the current bar; a sub-53.5 print could put the 0.8127 week low back in play
H1 close above the 0.8181 day high and the 50% retracement near 0.8190 would challenge the lower-highs line, with 0.8217 next overhead
Failure to hold ema20 and the 0.8146 higher low reopens the 0.8127 week low
SNB's Schlegel speaks Thu 13:30 UTC and could materially shift this read; the 0.8248 weekly open is the upper reference
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; rebound capped below 61.8% fib.
Highs at 0.8254 Monday, 0.8217 Tuesday and 0.8181 today set the week's downtrend. Tuesday's London drop followed the hot Swiss CPI, and the Democratic midterm sweep drove the Asia-session slide to the 0.8127 week low. The rebound stalled at the 0.8181 lower high, just under the 61.8% retracement of the drop from the Tuesday high to the week low. Price has since slipped back below EMA(20) near 0.8170 with RSI(14) around 41, and the 0.8146 session low is being pressed into NY hours.
Support: 0.8146, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8170, 0.8181, 0.8217
What it said to watch
ISM Services at 15:00 UTC: a sub-54 print could extend the slide toward the 0.8127 week low, while a beat tests the ema20 at 0.8170
An H1 close below the 0.8146 session low exposes a retest of the 0.8127 week low
A close above the 0.8181 lower high and the 61.8% fib breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the path to the tue high at 0.8217
SNB Chairman Schlegel speaks Thu 13:30 UTC; any franc-strength or intervention language could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday, retesting tue low.
USD/CHF has stepped lower all week from Monday's 0.8248 open. Tuesday's Swiss CPI beat set the London-open tue low at 0.8149, and the NY bounce on US data capped at the 0.8217 tue high. The midterm-driven USD selloff in today's Asia session then printed a week low at 0.8127. The rebound stalled at a 0.8181 lower high near the 38.2% retracement of the week's drop, and price has slipped back under the ema20 (~0.8170) into the London-NY transition to retest the tue low, with RSI(14) at 36, off the overnight extreme.
Support: 0.8149, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8170, 0.8181, 0.8217
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8149 tue low exposes the 0.8127 week low
H1 close above the 0.8181 lower high and the 38.2% fib breaks the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the ema20 near 0.8170 would signal the retest is holding
ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
SNB Schlegel speech Thu 13:30 UTC; FX-intervention language is the main reversal risk to CHF strength
Lower highs and lower lows each day since Monday; consolidating 0.8151–0.8181 above the week low.
Since the week open near 0.8248, USDCHF has printed a lower high and lower low each day. Monday's week high at 0.8254 gave way to Tuesday's London drop to 0.8149 on the hot Swiss CPI, and the NY rebound stalled at the 0.8217 Tue high. The Democrats' Congress sweep then took price to a week low of 0.8127 in the Asia session. The London rebound has stalled at the 0.8181 session high, near the 38.2% retracement of the week's decline, with price just under EMA(20) around 0.8175 and RSI(14) in the low 40s. The pullback low at 0.8151 is the session low holding beneath.
Support: 0.8151, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8181, 0.8217, 0.8254
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8181 session high and the lower-highs trendline would challenge the downtrend read and open the 0.8217 tue high
Failure to hold the 0.8151 session low exposes the 0.8127 week low for a retest
US ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read
SNB's Schlegel speaks Thu 13:30 UTC; intervention or franc-strength language is a reversal risk for the downtrend
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; bounce sits at the 50% retrace.
USD/CHF has printed lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 0.8248 weekly open. Tuesday's NY rally on the JOLTS beat met rejection at the 0.8217 Tuesday high, and Wednesday's Asia-session slide on the Democratic midterm sweep and post-CPI CHF demand reached the 0.8127 week low. The rebound has retraced about half of that leg and is pressing EMA(20) near 0.8175, with RSI(14) back near 49, a higher low at 0.8150 during London and Wednesday's 0.8179 high capping just under the 61.8% fib. Price still sits below EMA(50) near 0.8188 and the lower-highs trendline from Monday's high.
Support: 0.8150, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8179, 0.8217, 0.8248
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8179 wed high and 61.8% fib (~0.8183) would challenge the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.8150 higher low reopens the 0.8127 week low
ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; a beat would put the lower-highs trendline and 0.8217 tue high back in focus
SNB's Schlegel speech Thu 13:30 UTC is the CHF-side event risk for the structure
10:03 UTC
Downtrend, bounce stalling under EMAs · RSI 45 · price 0.81645
Lower highs from Monday's 0.8253 week high; compressing 0.8151–0.8179 above the week low.
USD/CHF has posted lower highs since Monday's 0.8253 week high near the weekly open. The main down legs came in three places: the Monday London session, Tuesday's hot Swiss CPI print (cpi low 0.8149), and the Asia session today, when the Democratic sweep drove an eight-week low at 0.8127. The rebound was rejected at 0.8179, the fib 38.2% retracement of the week's drop and just above EMA(20) at 0.8174. Price is now compressing in a 0.8151–0.8179 band beneath EMA(20) and the ema50 at 0.8188, with RSI(14) recovering to about 45 from sub-30 at the low.
Support: 0.8150, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8178, 0.8188, 0.8217
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the fib 38.2% at 0.8178 and the ema50 at 0.8188 would challenge the lower-highs trendline near 0.8200. Tuesday's high (tue high) at 0.8217 is the next reference above.
Failure to hold the cpi low at 0.8150 would expose the week low at 0.8127.
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read, with strong prints testing the lower-highs trendline.
SNB Chair Schlegel's speech on Thu at 13:30 UTC is the CHF-side risk to the current structure.
Since the 0.8248 week open the pair has stepped lower in three legs. The first came at Monday's London open. The second was Tuesday's hot Swiss CPI flush to the 0.8150 CPI low, which NY retraced to the 0.8217 Tue high. The third was the Democratic-sweep USD sell-off in Asia that set the 0.8127 week low. The rebound into London stalled at 0.8179, where the 38.2% fib of the week's range and EMA20 meet at the ema20/fib zone, and RSI(14) has rolled back toward 38.
Support: 0.8150, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.81775, 0.82169, 0.82475
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20/fib zone near 0.8178 would break the sequence of lower highs and open the Tue high at 0.8217
Failure to hold the 0.8150 cpi low exposes the 0.8127 week low; a close below it extends the lower-low sequence
US ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read
SNB Chair Schlegel speaks Thu 13:30 UTC; pushback on franc strength would test the descending trendline from the week high
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; rebound capped at EMA(20)/38.2%.
USD/CHF has stepped lower from the 0.8248 weekly open and Monday's 0.8254 Asia-session high, with lower highs at the 0.8217 tuesday high and the 0.8179 rebound high. The two decisive legs both came outside NY hours: the hot Swiss CPI drove the 0.8149 cpi low in early European trade Tuesday, and the post-midterm USD selloff in today's Asia session took price to a 0.8127 week low with RSI(14) briefly oversold. The bounce stalled at 0.8179, where EMA(20) and the 38.2% retracement of the week's drop converge, and price is back near the 23.6% level with RSI(14) at 42.
Support: 0.8149, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8179, 0.8217, 0.8248
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8179 rebound high and EMA(20) would break the lower-high sequence and open the 0.8217 tuesday high
Failure to hold the 0.8149 cpi low exposes the 0.8127 week low and confirms the lower-low pattern
ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read; a sustained recovery above 0.8217 puts the 0.8248 weekly open back in view
SNB Chairman Schlegel speaks Thu 13:30 UTC, the next CHF event that could reshape the downtrend structure
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday; retracing into ema20.
Successive lower highs at 0.8256, 0.8254 and 0.8217 and lower lows define this window's downtrend. The two sharpest legs came on Tuesday's hot Swiss CPI in early London, which set the 0.8149 Tue low, and on the Asia-session USD selloff after the Democratic midterm sweep, which set the 0.8127 week low. The bounce has retraced about half of the 0.8217–0.8127 leg and is pressing into EMA(20) near 0.8179, with the 61.8% fib at 0.8183 just above and RSI(14) recovering to around 40 after oversold readings.
Support: 0.81615, 0.81491, 0.81273
Resistance: 0.8179, 0.81827, 0.82169
What it said to watch
Rejection at ema20 / 61.8% fib (0.8179–0.8183) keeps the lower-high sequence intact; an H1 close back below the 38.2% fib at 0.8162 exposes the 0.8149 Tue low
A break below the 0.8127 week low extends the lower-low sequence
An H1 close above the 0.8217 lower high invalidates the downtrend read
ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read; strong prints run against the post-election USD leg
Since Monday's weekly open near 0.8248, the pair has printed lower highs at 0.8254 and 0.8217. Each leg has extended to a lower low: first Tuesday's prior low at 0.8149 around the hot Swiss CPI beat, then a 0.8127 week low in the Asia session as the Democrat midterm sweep hit USD. The bounce off the low is pressing into the ema20 near 0.8179 and the 38.2% level of the week-decline fib, with RSI(14) recovering to the high 30s from oversold readings.
Support: 0.8149, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8179, 0.8190, 0.8217
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8217 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Rejection at the ema20 / 50% fib (0.8179–0.8190) keeps the lower-high structure intact
Failure to hold the 0.8149 prior low exposes the 0.8127 week low
ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read
SNB's Schlegel speaks Thu 13:30 UTC; FX-intervention language would test the downtrend
USDCHF has printed lower highs since Monday's early 0.8254 week high. Tuesday's NY-session rebound stalled at 0.8217, the latest lower high, and the Asia session then broke the 0.8149 Tuesday low as early midterm tallies hit USD and the Swiss CPI beat lifted CHF. The drop set a week low at 0.8127, and the bounce has retraced only about a quarter of the week's move, holding beneath the Monday low at 0.8176 and the EMA(20) near 0.8190 while RSI(14) recovers toward 40 from oversold.
Support: 0.8149, 0.8127
Resistance: 0.8176, 0.8190, 0.8217
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the Monday low at 0.8176 and the EMA(20) near 0.8190 (50% fib of the week drop) would mark a deeper retracement
A break above the 0.8217 lower high and the lower-highs trendline would invalidate the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.8149 Tuesday low, then the 0.8127 week low, confirms another lower low
US ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC today, plus final Senate calls, could materially shift the USD leg
SNB Schlegel speech Thu 13:30 UTC is the first official reaction to the 1.5% CPI
04:02 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after Asia slide · RSI 23 · price 0.8144
Lower highs and lower lows since weekly open.
USDCHF has printed lower highs every session since the 0.8248 weekly open. Tuesday's Swiss CPI beat drove a London low at 0.8149, and the NY rebound stalled at 0.8217, the Tue high, under the lower-highs line. Early-Asia Wednesday, Democratic gains in the midterm count and falling yields pushed price through the Tue low to a 0.8127 week low, leaving RSI(14) near 23 and price well below EMA(20) and EMA(50).
Support: 0.8127, 0.8100
Resistance: 0.8149, 0.8217, 0.8248
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 0.8149 (Tue low) would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8127 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8100 round number
Recovery through the 61.8% fib of the weekly drop near 0.8205 and the Tue high at 0.8217 would breach the lower-highs line
ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) could reverse part of the election-driven USD drop
Final Senate calls and Schlegel on Thu 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:02 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating into oversold · RSI 23 · price 0.81303
Lower highs and lower lows since the weekly open; Asia broke Tuesday's low.
USD/CHF has printed successive lower highs from the 0.8248 weekly open. Tuesday's London-open drop on the Swiss CPI beat reached the 0.8149 prior low, and the NY-session JOLTS beat lifted price back only to the 0.8217 lower high. Wednesday's Asia session then cut through 0.8149 and the 0.8176 Monday low as early midterm tallies weighed on the dollar. The roughly 90-pip slide from 0.8217 leaves price below both EMAs at the 0.8129 Asia low, with RSI(14) near 23 oversold, ATR(14) expanded to about 15 pips and the 0.8100 round number the next reference below.
Support: 0.8129, 0.8100
Resistance: 0.8149, 0.8176, 0.8217
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 0.8149 prior low would mark the Asia break as a false break
A recovery through the 0.8176 Monday low revisits the 38.2–50% retracement of the 0.8217 lower high to Asia low leg
A close above the 0.8217 lower high, and the lower-high line, ends the downtrend read
Sustained trade below the 0.8129 Asia low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8100 round number
US ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) today plus SNB Schlegel Thu 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs have stacked up since Thursday's 0.8297 peak. From the 0.8248 weekly open, Monday's London session drove the first leg, and Tuesday's London open extended it to the Tue low at 0.8149 on the hot Swiss CPI beat. Tuesday's NY rebound on the JOLTS beat stalled at the Tue high of 0.8217, just above the 61.8% retrace, and midterm results in early Asia Wednesday then knocked price to a fresh week low at 0.8132; it now sits back on the Tue low, below the ema20 near 0.8190, with RSI(14) in the mid-30s and not yet oversold.
Support: 0.81491, 0.81321, 0.8100
Resistance: 0.81761, 0.8190, 0.82169
What it said to watch
H1 acceptance below the week low at 0.8132 extends the downtrend toward the 0.8100 round number
An H1 close back above the Mon low at 0.8176 would show the Asia break losing traction
A reclaim of the ema20 near 0.8190 and the Tue high at 0.8217 would break the lower-high trendline and the lower-high sequence
Remaining midterm Senate calls through Asia/Europe, then ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) Wednesday, could materially shift this read
SNB's Schlegel Thursday 13:30 UTC is the first policy reaction to the CPI beat
Lower highs and lower lows since the weekly open; Tuesday's rebound stalled below 61.8% retrace.
USDCHF has carved lower highs from the 0.8248 weekly open. Tuesday's hot Swiss CPI drove the London-morning flush to the 0.8149 week low. The NY-session rebound was rejected at the 0.8217 tue high, near the 61.8% retrace of the Monday–Tuesday drop, and price has slipped back under the ema20 near 0.8195 in Asia as midterm results land. RSI(14) sits in the low 40s, while today's asia low at 0.8175 is so far holding above Tuesday's trough.
Support: 0.8175, 0.8149
Resistance: 0.8195, 0.8217, 0.8248
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 0.8149 week low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the ema20 and the lower-highs trendline, then through the 0.8217 tue high, breaks the sequence of lower highs
Failure to hold the 0.8175 asia low brings the week low back into focus
Midterm Senate calls and Wed ADP / ISM Services could materially shift the USD leg
SNB Schlegel speech Thu 13:30 UTC is the first policy reaction to the CPI beat
Lower highs and lower lows; Tuesday rebound capped near the 61.8% retracement.
USD/CHF has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 0.8248 weekly open. The hot Swiss CPI drove Tuesday's London-open flush to the 0.8149 week low, and the JOLTS beat lifted price to the 0.8217 Tuesday high, just above the 61.8% retracement of the Monday–Tuesday drop. That rebound stalled under the lower-highs line, and the first midterm results at 23:00 UTC pushed price back below EMA(20) at 0.8198 and EMA(50) near 0.8205, to the 0.8189 overnight low at the 38.2% level. RSI(14) has recovered to ~47 from Tuesday's oversold dip near 27, with the 0.8176 Monday low as the next shelf.
Support: 0.8189, 0.8176, 0.8149
Resistance: 0.8198, 0.8217, 0.8248
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8217 Tuesday high breaks the lower-highs sequence and opens the 0.8248 weekly open
Failure to hold the 0.8189 overnight low and the 0.8176 Monday low exposes the 0.8149 week low
Recovery back above EMA(20) at 0.8198 would neutralise the overnight rejection
Senate control call overnight, ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC Wednesday could materially shift the USD leg
SNB's Schlegel on Thu at 13:30 UTC is the first official reaction to the 1.5% CPI print