Higher lows since Tuesday's London low; breakout above Monday high, now consolidating below week high.
From the 0.8174 London low on Tuesday, USDCHF lifted on Waller's comments and then extended during the NY session after the hot US CPI. That run cleared the Monday high at 0.8227 and printed a week high at 0.8268. Since then the pair has drifted in a tight 10-pip pullback to a late low near 0.8245, which sits on the 23.6% fib of the move. Price holds above a rising EMA(20) at 0.8232, and RSI(14) has cooled from 77 to 64 without a lower-high divergence yet.
Support: 0.8245, 0.82319, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8268, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below the late low at 0.8245 exposes ema20 at 0.8232 and the 38.2% fib
Return below the Monday high at 0.8227 would undo the breakout and break the higher-lows trendline
A close above the week high at 0.8268 opens the round number at 0.8300
Thursday's jobless claims at 13:30 UTC is the next data risk
After Sunday's 0.8193 open, the pair spent Monday and early Tuesday ranging 0.8174–0.8227, with a double bottom at 0.8174 in both London sessions. Waller's 09:00 UTC remarks lifted it off that base, and the hot US CPI print drove the NY breakout through the Monday high to a week high of 0.8268. Since then price has drifted into a tight 0.8249–0.8265 band above a rising EMA(20) at 0.8230, with RSI(14) easing from 77 to 68 and ATR compressing from 13 to 10.5 pips.
Support: 0.82488, 0.82303, 0.82267
Resistance: 0.8268, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could extend or unwind the CPI breakout
H1 close below the 0.8249 session low exposes the EMA(20) near 0.8230 and the 0.8227 Monday high retest
Acceptance above the 0.8268 week high opens the 0.8300 round number
A return below 0.8227 puts price back inside the prior range and weakens the breakout read
Thursday 13:30 UTC jobless claims (f/c 195K) is the next scheduled data risk
Range break above Monday high; shallow pullback holding.
The week opened with a gap below Friday's 0.8207 close. Monday's NY push stalled at 0.8227, and price slipped to a week low of 0.8174 at Tuesday's London open. Waller's 50bp remarks and then the hot October CPI drove a 94-pip run to the 0.8268 CPI high through NY hours, clearing Monday's high along the way. Price is now consolidating near 0.8254, above a rising EMA(20) at 0.8228 that sits on Monday's high, with RSI(14) easing to 68 from a 77 peak and ATR off its 13-pip high.
Support: 0.82488, 0.82279, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.8268, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 0.8268 CPI high extends the uptrend toward the 0.8300 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8249 pullback low exposes the 0.8232 38.2% fib and EMA(20) at 0.8228, where Monday's breakout level sits
A break of the Tuesday trendline and then the 50% fib at 0.8221 would undo the CPI range break and put the 0.8174 week low back in focus
Fed's Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC, and Thursday's jobless claims at 13:30 UTC, could shift the 25 vs 50bp read behind the move
Double bottom at 0.8174 resolved above Monday high.
USD/CHF tested the double low near 0.8174 at Monday's and Tuesday's London opens. It then broke through the 0.8205-0.8227 cap and the Monday high during NY hours, as the hot October CPI (0.4% m/m, core 0.3%) extended a Waller-led bid to a week high of 0.8268. RSI(14) has eased from 77 to 67.3 and price is drifting to a pullback low at 0.8249. EMA(20) at 0.8225, now rising steeply, sits just under the Monday high, so that area is the first breakout retest; the 50% retracement of the CPI impulse is near 0.8221.
Support: 0.82489, 0.82267, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.8268, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
H1 close back below the Monday high and ema20 (~0.8225) would put the breakout at risk of a false break
H1 close above the 0.8268 week high resumes the impulse toward the 0.8300 round number
A drop toward the double low at 0.8174 would test the rising lows line from last week
Thursday Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC, f/c 195K) is the next data risk
Breakout above Monday high, first pullback underway.
USD/CHF opened the week at 0.8193 and spent Monday ranging. It broke higher on Tuesday after Waller's hawkish remarks at the London open, then the hot October CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) drove the NY session through the Monday high at 0.8227 to a week high at 0.8268. Price holds above the EMA(20) at 0.8223 and the EMA(50) at 0.8206, which sits beside last week's 0.8207 close. RSI(14) has eased to 70.3 from 77.3 as the Tuesday rally pulls back, and ATR has expanded to 12 pips from about 9.
Support: 0.82267, 0.82227, 0.82061
Resistance: 0.8268, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read if they lean toward or push back on a 50bp December hike
H1 close back below the Monday high and the ema20 near 0.8223-0.8227 would mark the breakout as a failed retest and open the 50-61.8% fib zone of the Tuesday rally
Loss of the ema50 and prior-week close at 0.8206 breaks the sequence of higher lows
H1 close above the 0.8268 week high extends the leg toward the 0.8300 round number
Thursday Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) is the next data risk
Breakout above Monday high after double low at 0.8174.
USD/CHF ran from Tuesday's London low at 0.8174 on Waller's 50bp remarks. The hot US core CPI (0.3% vs 0.2%) then drove a NY-session breakout through Monday's high at 0.8227, completing a double low at the 0.8174 week low and printing a 0.8268 CPI high before stalling. RSI(14) is overbought at 75.5 and ATR(14) has expanded to 12.1 pips, while price sits well above both EMAs and EMA(20) at 0.8219 is turning sharply higher.
Support: 0.82267, 0.82194, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.8268, 0.8300
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below Monday's high at 0.8227 would mark the CPI move as a false break
A break of the Tue rally line and the 38.2% fib near 0.8232 exposes ema20 at 0.8219
Acceptance above the 0.8268 CPI high opens the 0.8300 round number
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC and again at 23:30 UTC could shift this read on 25bp vs 50bp December framing
17:01 UTC
Uptrend, accelerating after CPI · RSI 77 · price 0.82647
Range break above Monday high, higher lows since Thursday.
USD/CHF broke out of its 0.8174–0.8227 range during NY hours after October CPI beat (core 0.3% vs 0.2%). The pair cleared the Monday high and printed a week high at 0.8268, with ATR expanding from 8.8 to 12.7 pips through the CPI rally. Price sits well above a rising EMA(20) at 0.8215 and RSI(14) is overbought at 77.3, while the Tue low at 0.8174 caps a sequence of higher lows that runs back to Thursday.
Support: 0.82267, 0.8215, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.8268, 0.8300
What it said to watch
A pullback that holds the Monday high at 0.8227 keeps the range break intact; an H1 close back below it would mark a false break
Ema20 at 0.8215 and the CPI rally fib 50% near 0.8221 are the nearest pullback references
An H1 close above the 0.8268 week high opens the 0.8300 round number
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read, depending on whether they frame December as 25bp or 50bp
A break of the Tue low at 0.8174 would end the higher-lows sequence
Breakout above Monday's high from a higher-low base.
USD/CHF cleared Monday's 0.8227 prior high during the NY session after the hot US October CPI (headline 0.4%, core 0.3%, both above forecast). That extends a CPI leg from the 0.8174 week low, set at the London open, to a 0.8262 session high. Price sits well above a now-rising EMA(20) at 0.8210, with RSI(14) overbought at 76.7 and ATR(14) expanding to 13 pips. The higher lows since Thursday's 0.8133 trough keep the rising trendline intact.
Support: 0.8227, 0.8210, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.8262, 0.8300
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 0.8227 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Acceptance above the 0.8262 session high leaves the 0.8300 round number as the next reference
Return below the ema20 at 0.8210, through the CPI leg's 50% at ~0.8218, would neutralise the post-CPI move
Failure of the 0.8174 week low breaks the higher-lows trendline
Fed's Bowman (20:30 UTC) and Paulson (23:30 UTC) on 25 vs 50bp could materially shift this read
Breakout above Monday high, higher lows since Thursday.
Tuesday's impulse started in London off the 0.8174 tuesday low as Waller floated a 50bp December hike. It extended in the NY session after the hot October CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%), clearing the 0.8227 monday high and the 0.8205–0.8210 cap to a fresh week high. Price sits well above a now-rising EMA(20) at 0.8205, with RSI(14) at 72.6 overbought and ATR expanding from 9.0 to 12.1 pips. Higher lows from Thursday's 0.8133 through the tuesday low frame the trendline beneath the move.
Support: 0.82267, 0.82047, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.8252, 0.8300
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 0.8227 monday high would turn the breakout into a false break
A pullback holding the ema20 near 0.8205 keeps the impulse structure intact; the 38.2% fib of Tuesday's impulse sits near 0.8222
Loss of the 0.8174 tuesday low breaks the higher-lows trendline from Thursday
The 0.8252 session high and the 0.8300 round number are the next upside references while RSI stays overbought
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read; Thursday's jobless claims follow
14:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum building on hot CPI · RSI 68 · price 0.82269
Rising lows since Nov 5, break above week high.
Twin lows near 0.8174 on Monday and at Tuesday's London open held the rising lows from Nov 5. Waller's 50bp talk lifted price to the 0.8211 prior cap. October CPI at 13:30 UTC came in hot, with headline 0.4% vs 0.3% and core 0.3% vs 0.2%, and the CPI impulse cleared the monday high at 0.8227 to set a cpi high of 0.8232 for the week.
Support: 0.82267, 0.8211, 0.82005
Resistance: 0.82323, 0.8250
What it said to watch
An hourly close back below the 0.8211 prior cap would make the CPI move a false break
Holding above the monday high at 0.8227 keeps the breakout intact. A close above the 0.8232 cpi high opens the 0.8250 round number
A break of ema20 at 0.8200 and the rising lows would return the week to range
RSI at 67.6 is near 70; a push above it would flag overbought conditions
Fed's Bowman (20:30 UTC) and Paulson/Bowman (23:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
13:01 UTC
Higher lows since Thursday, ranging into CPI · RSI 57 · price 0.82059
0.8174–0.8227 range since Friday's NFP leg; twin lows and a lower high.
The NFP beat drove Friday's NY session leg from 0.8186 to 0.8220. Since then the pair has held a 0.8174–0.8227 range, with Monday's NY rally rejected at the 0.8227 week high. The range low at 0.8174 held twice, on Monday and Tuesday's London open, sitting near the 50–61.8% retracement of the Thu–Mon rally fib, and Waller's hawkish remarks lifted price back above the flat EMA(20) at 0.81976. Price now sits just under the 0.8211 session high, a lower high that tightens the range. RSI(14) recovered from 40.6 to 57.2 and ATR(14) compressed to about 10 pips ahead of the release.
Support: 0.81976, 0.8174, 0.81325
Resistance: 0.82111, 0.82267
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC, within the next bar, could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.8227 week high breaks the range and the lower-highs line
H1 close below the 0.8174 range low breaks the twin lows and tests the higher-lows trendline toward the 0.8133 Thu low
Loss of ema20 at 0.81976 returns price to mid-range
Friday's NFP beat lifted USDCHF off Thursday's 0.8133 low, and since then price has rotated in a 0.8174–0.8227 range. Tuesday's London-open dip held the same 0.8174 range low as Monday, near the 50–61.8% fib of the Thursday-to-Monday rally. The 09:00 UTC rebound reclaimed EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) recovering from 40.6 to 59.5, and price now presses the 0.8211 session high on the lower-highs line from Monday's 0.8227 peak.
Support: 0.81966, 0.81934, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.82111, 0.82204, 0.82267
What it said to watch
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
Hourly close above the 0.8220 nfp high and the 0.8227 monday high breaks the range top
Hourly close back below the ema20 at 0.8197 and the weekly open at 0.8193 returns price to mid-range
Failure to hold the 0.8174 range low exposes Thursday's 0.8133 low
0.8174–0.8227 range since Friday NFP, lower high at 0.8211.
USD/CHF has held a 0.8174–0.8227 range since Friday's NFP beat. The week open gapped down to 0.8186, and Monday's NY spike to the 0.8227 week high met rejection back toward 0.8188. Twin lows at 0.8174, set in Monday's Asia session and at Tuesday's London open, held between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the rally from 0.8133. A push during Waller's speech then reclaimed EMA(20) and EMA(50) and lifted RSI(14) from 41 to 56.5. Price now sits just under the Tuesday high at 0.8211, a lower high beneath the digest's 0.8205–0.8210 cap. ATR(14) is compressed near 10.5 pips into US CPI.
Support: 0.81952, 0.81863, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.82108, 0.82204, 0.82268
What it said to watch
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (~2.5h; core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.8220 NFP high and the 0.8227 week high breaks the lower-highs line and the range top
Pullbacks holding EMA(20) near 0.8195 and the 0.8186 week open keep the recovery off the twin lows intact
H1 close below the 0.8174 twin lows breaks the higher-low trendline and the range floor
10:02 UTC
Range-bound, rebounding off range floor · RSI 59 · price 0.82054
0.8174–0.8227 range since Friday's NFP spike; equal lows at 0.8174.
USD/CHF has rotated inside a 0.8174–0.8227 range since Friday's NFP beat lifted it off Thursday's 0.8133 low. Monday's NY-session spike to the 0.8227 week high faded back under the EMAs, but a second London-open rejection at the 0.8174 double low this morning was followed by a 25-pip push to 0.8208 around the Fed's Waller speech, lifting RSI(14) from 41 to 59 and ATR off its 9.2-pip trough. Price now sits above a flat EMA(20) at 0.8194 and EMA(50) at 0.8192, just under the 0.8211 day high that also capped Friday's first NFP bar.
Support: 0.81942, 0.81917, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.8211, 0.82204, 0.82268
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~3.5h) could materially shift this read; core MoM forecast 0.2%
H1 close above the 0.8211 day high exposes the 0.8220 nfp high and 0.8227 week high
Acceptance above the 0.8227 week high would break the range read
Slip back below ema20 0.8194 and ema50 0.8192 returns price to mid-range
Failure to hold the 0.8174 double low marks a range break lower, beyond the 50% retracement of the Thu–Mon rally
Lower highs from Monday's high, twin lows at 0.8174.
Since Monday's open USDCHF has rotated inside a 0.8174–0.8227 range. The post-NFP advance was rejected at the 0.8227 Monday high during NY hours as oil- and yield-led USD selling took hold. The last closed bar sits below EMA(20) 0.8193 and EMA(50) 0.8191, which have flattened and converged, while RSI(14) has eased from 65 to 41 and ATR has compressed to 9.3 pips. Into the London open today price retested the 0.8174 twin lows, near the 50% retracement of the Thursday–Monday rally, and the bounce is now probing the EMA band beneath a sequence of lower highs.
Support: 0.81863, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.82014, 0.82268
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8174 twin lows breaks the range floor and exposes the 61.8% rally fib near 0.8169
Close above the 0.8201 Asia high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.8227 Monday high
Failure to hold the 0.8186 weekly open turns the EMA band into a cap again
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (headline f/c 0.3% m/m, core 0.2%) and Waller at 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:01 UTC
Range, drifting lower within it · RSI 41 · price 0.81805
Lower highs off Monday's peak, retesting week low.
USDCHF has given back Monday's NY-session spike to the 0.8227 week high and now trades below the week open and both EMAs. The London open drive today retested Monday's 0.8174 week low, which sits near the 50% retracement of the Thursday-low-to-week-high advance. EMA(20) has rolled over at 0.8194 under a line of lower highs, and RSI(14) has eased to 41 from the mid-60s on Monday; ATR compressing to ~9 pips fits the digest's picture of oil- and Iran-led dollar softness fading the post-NFP gains while desks sit out US CPI.
Support: 0.8174, 0.8160, 0.81327
Resistance: 0.81863, 0.81938, 0.82268
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8174 week low breaks the range floor and exposes the fri base near 0.8160, then the thu low at 0.8133
Reclaim of the 0.8186 week open and ema20 at 0.8194 would break the lower-highs line and revive the range-top test toward 0.8227
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC, inside the next bar, could shift the read
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) is the main catalyst: a soft print pressures the week low, a hot one revisits the week high
07:02 UTC
Range, pulling back below EMAs · RSI 42 · price 0.81824
Failed break of week high, lower highs from 0.8227, testing Monday low zone.
USD/CHF gapped lower into Monday's weekly open at 0.8186 after Friday's NFP-driven rally. Monday's NY-session push to a 0.8227 week high was a false break above Friday's high and faded into the close, as lower oil and Iran de-escalation drained the dollar bid. Late in the Asia session price slipped back below the weekly open and both EMA(20) at 0.8195 and EMA(50) at 0.8192, with RSI(14) at 42 and ATR compressing to 9.2 pips; the Monday low at 0.8174 is the nearest floor, with the 61.8% fib of the NFP advance near 0.8186 already given way.
Support: 0.81742, 0.81605, 0.81327
Resistance: 0.81863, 0.81949, 0.82268
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8174 Monday low confirms a lower low and exposes the 0.8160 pre-NFP low, then the 0.8133 prior wk low
Recovery back above the ema20 at 0.8195 and the lower highs line from the week high would restore the range read
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
Week high at 0.8227 remains the range cap; only a sustained break above it ends the range
Higher lows since 0.8133; Asian range compressing at EMA(20).
NY hours have driven the dominant moves since Thursday's 0.8133 low: Friday's NFP beat (165K vs 65K) lifted the pair through 0.8220, and Monday's NY push to a week high at 0.8227 failed and slid back to 0.8188 as oil and US-Iran headlines trimmed USD gains. Tuesday's Asian range of 0.8188–0.8201 sits on EMA(20) at 0.8196, with the ema50 at 0.8192 near the 38.2% fib of the rally. RSI(14) is pinned near 50 and ATR(14) has eased from 12.2 to 9 pips, a compressed setup into US CPI.
Support: 0.8192, 0.8188, 0.8174
Resistance: 0.8201, 0.8205, 0.8227
What it said to watch
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m, 2.8% y/y) could materially shift this read; Waller at 09:00 UTC comes first
H1 close below the asian low at 0.8188 and the ema50 exposes the monday low at 0.8174 and the higher-low trendline
H1 close above the asian high at 0.8201 and the friday close at 0.8205 puts the 0.8227 week high back in play
Another rejection near the week high would confirm Monday's false break as a range top
05:03 UTC
Uptrend from Thursday low, stalling below week high · RSI 47 · price 0.81918
Higher lows intact after NFP range break; Monday's push above Friday high failed, now coiling 0.8188–0.8201.
USDCHF broke out of the Wednesday–Thursday range (0.8133 range low to 0.8186) on Friday's NFP beat (165K vs 65K). Monday's NY-session push to a 0.8227 week high faded back below 0.8200 as oil-driven USD selling hit. Through the Asian session price has coiled between the 0.8188 ny low and the 0.8201 asia high, just under EMA(20) and on EMA(50), with the 38.2% level of the nfp leg fib and the rising trendline from Thursday's low converging near 0.8184–0.8191; RSI(14) has eased back to a neutral 47.
Support: 0.81875, 0.81742, 0.81327
Resistance: 0.82014, 0.82054, 0.82268
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%), with Waller at 09:00 UTC beforehand, could materially shift this read
An H1 close below the 0.8188 ny low and the rising trendline exposes the 50% nfp leg fib near 0.8180 and the 0.8174 monday low
A deeper slide back into the old range puts the 0.8133 range low back in view
Recovery above the 0.8201 asia high and 0.8205 friday close would put the 0.8227 week high back in play
Range break higher, false break at 0.8227, now compressing below 0.8200.
Friday's 165K NFP beat broke the 0.8133–0.8185 range from Thursday's low, and the NFP leg extended to a 0.8227 Monday high during the NY session before USD weakness on Iran-deal optimism and lower yields pulled it back under the 0.8220 NFP high. Since then price has compressed in a 13-pip Asian range between 0.8188 and the 0.8201 Asian high, sitting on EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 47 and holding just above the 38.2% retracement of the NFP leg fib. The weekly open at 0.8187 and the higher-low trendline from Thursday are both holding, with the Monday low at 0.8174 the last higher low below.
Support: 0.8187, 0.8174, 0.8133
Resistance: 0.8201, 0.8220, 0.8227
What it said to watch
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (~9.5h) could materially shift this read; Fed's Waller speaks at 09:00 UTC
H1 close below the 0.8187 weekly open and the higher-low trendline exposes the 0.8174 Monday low near the 50% fib
Failure to hold 0.8174 breaks the higher-low sequence and brings 0.8133 Thursday low back into focus
H1 close above the 0.8201 Asian high and then 0.8220 NFP high reopens the 0.8227 Monday high
Higher lows since Thursday; pullback from 0.8227 retesting the breakout area.
USD/CHF broke out of its 0.8135–0.8185 range on Friday's 165K NFP beat. The pair opened the week with a roughly 19-pip gap lower, held the Monday low at 0.8174 in the London session, then printed a fresh Monday high at 0.8227 in the first hour of NY. That high failed by late NY, and price has retested the breakout area at the 38.2% fib of the Thu–Mon impulse near 0.8188. It now sits flat on EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 50 through the Asia session, below the Asian high at 0.8201, while the higher-low sequence from Thursday's 0.8133 week low is still intact.
Support: 0.81875, 0.81742, 0.81327
Resistance: 0.82014, 0.82204, 0.82268
What it said to watch
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; Waller speaks at 09:00 UTC beforehand
An H1 close below the fib 38.2 at 0.8188 and the Monday low at 0.8174 breaks the higher-low trendline and puts the week low at 0.8133 back in scope
An H1 close above the Asian high at 0.8201 reopens the NFP high at 0.8220 and the Monday high at 0.8227
A second failure at the Monday high would leave a lower-high below 0.8227 and weaken the breakout read
02:03 UTC
Uptrend from Thursday's low, stalling below week high · RSI 52 · price 0.81958
Higher lows intact; Monday's new high reversed, price compressing near 38.2%.
The Thursday-to-Monday rally from 0.8133 took the pair through the old 0.8185 range top on Friday's NFP beat. Monday's NY session pushed to a 0.8227 week high above Friday's NFP peak, but that break was rejected and the pair faded to 0.8187, close to the week open and the 38.2% retracement. Price is now flat near 0.8196, sitting on EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 52, while the higher-lows line from Thursday still holds under Monday's 0.8174 London low.
Support: 0.8185, 0.8174, 0.8169
Resistance: 0.8207, 0.8227
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8185 week open breaks the higher-lows trendline and puts the monday low at 0.8174 and the 61.8% fib near 0.8169 in play
Recovery above the 0.8207 fri close reopens the 0.8227 week high, where Monday's false break was rejected
US CPI at 13:30 UTC, with Waller at 09:00 UTC first, could materially shift this read; a soft core print risks a rotation back into the 0.8125–0.8185 range
Post-NFP range 0.8174–0.8227 sitting above the prior 0.8127–0.8185 box.
Friday's 165K NFP beat broke USD/CHF out of the 0.8127–0.8185 box during NY hours. Since then the pair has rotated in a 0.8174–0.8227 band: London sold Monday to 0.8174 (monday low), and the NY open pushed to a 0.8227 week high that met rejection. Price then faded to 0.8187 as oil and US yields slid on Iran de-escalation headlines. Price now sits flat in the Asian range just under EMA(20) and above EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 54. The 0.8187 NY low lines up with the 38.2% fib of the 0.8127–0.8227 advance, the week open at 0.8185 and the higher lows from Thursday's 0.8133 swing low.
Support: 0.8188, 0.8174, 0.8133
Resistance: 0.8207, 0.8227
What it said to watch
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC today (Waller at 09:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.8227 week high breaks the post-NFP range to the upside
A return above the 0.8207 prior close puts price back at the top of the band, near the 0.8205 cap flagged in the digest
Failure to hold the 38.2% fib and the 0.8174 monday low breaks the higher lows and puts the old 0.8127–0.8185 range back in play, with the 0.8133 swing low next
00:02 UTC
Uptrend since Thursday, stalling below week high · RSI 54 · price 0.81961
Higher lows intact; post-NFP range 0.8174–0.8227 with failed push above NFP high.
Friday's 165K NFP beat broke the 0.8125–0.8185 range, and the higher-low sequence from Thursday's 0.8133 swing low remains intact. Monday's NY push to a 0.8227 week high cleared the NFP high by only six pips before fading back below the 0.8207 Friday close, as oil and US yields slid on Iran ceasefire hopes; the NY low at 0.8187 held near the 38.2% retracement of the post-NFP leg. In the Asia session, price is pinned at EMA(20) around 0.8197 with RSI(14) flat in the mid-50s, sitting between the weekly open at 0.8185 and Friday's close.
Support: 0.81848, 0.81742, 0.81325
Resistance: 0.82071, 0.82267
What it said to watch
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC Tuesday, with Waller at 09:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
H1 close back below the 0.8185 weekly open returns price to the old range and tests the higher-lows trendline
Failure to hold the 0.8174 Monday low breaks the higher-low sequence and brings the 0.8133 swing low into view
Recovery above the 0.8207 Friday close, then a close above the 0.8227 week high, would negate the false-break read