Lower highs from 0.8347 week high; price pressing EMA(20) and the descending trendline.
USDCHF has printed lower highs since Thursday's London-session week high at 0.8347. Thursday's NY afternoon and Friday's NY session drove most of the slide as US yields eased, and price closed the week just above 0.8300 after a 0.8296 Friday low. The Sunday open spiked to a 0.8287 gap low in thin liquidity, then reversed back above the Friday low in a false break; price now sits on EMA(20) and the descending trendline near 0.8307, still below EMA(50) at 0.8313, with RSI(14) flat near 48.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82957, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.83131, 0.83189, 0.83465
What it said to watch
H1 close above the descending trendline and EMA(50) at 0.8313 challenges the lower-high sequence; the Friday high at 0.8319 is the next reference
The 38.2% decline fib near 0.8310 is the first retracement marker between EMA(20) and EMA(50)
Failure to hold the 0.8300 round number re-exposes the Friday low at 0.8296 and the gap low at 0.8287
Recovery toward the week high at 0.8347 would need US yields to re-accelerate
Fed's Hammack (Mon 16:50 UTC) and Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) could shift US yield pricing ahead of Wednesday's US CPI
22:05 UTC
Downtrend since Thursday, stalling near 0.8300 · RSI 46 · price 0.83055
Lower highs from 0.8347; false break below Friday low at Monday open.
USDCHF topped at the 0.8347 week high in Thursday's London session, then lost about 20 pips during NY hours as easing US yields weighed on the dollar. Friday printed a lower high at 0.8319 and slid to the 0.8296 Friday low. Monday's thin open dipped to a 0.8287 Monday low and was bought back above 0.8300, leaving a false break, with price now pressing ema20 at 0.8307 and RSI(14) recovering toward 46.
Support: 0.82957, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.83068, 0.83189, 0.83465
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the friday low at 0.8296 negates Monday's false break and extends the lower-low sequence toward the monday low at 0.8287
Sustained hold above ema20 at 0.8307 brings the 38.2–50% retrace of the Thu–Mon decline (0.8310–0.8317) into play
Close above the lower high at 0.8319 breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the week high at 0.8347
Fed's Hammack (Mon 16:50 UTC) and Waller (Tue) ahead of Wednesday's US CPI could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.8347; Tuesday low taken out, price pinned near 0.8300.
USDCHF set its 0.8347 week high in Thursday's London session, met rejection, and slid through NY hours as easing bond-market stress pulled US yields lower. Price has since printed lower highs at 0.8322 and then 0.8319 in Friday's NY session. The late-Friday slide undercut Tuesday's 0.8298 low to a 0.8296 week low before settling just above 0.8300, with price under the ema20 near 0.8305 and RSI(14) around 41.
Support: 0.8296, 0.8245
Resistance: 0.8305, 0.8319, 0.8347
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 0.8319 lower high, near the 50% retrace of the Thursday–Friday decline, breaks the lower-highs sequence
Rebounds stalling at the ema20 near 0.8305 keep the downtrend read intact
Acceptance below the 0.8296 week low exposes the 0.8245 range floor
Fed's Waller on Tuesday and Bowman on Wednesday, then US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
A return to the 0.8347 week high would negate the Thursday rejection