Double bottom resolved higher; stalling at prior high.
Monday fully reversed the Thursday–Friday slide from 0.8347. Lows at 0.8296 and 0.8293 formed a double bottom, London broke the 0.8319 neckline and NY pushed on to a 0.8349 Monday high, about 50 pips above the 0.8297 weekly open, as broad USD strength on oil-driven haven demand and Fed hike pricing carried the pair. RSI(14) peaked in overbought territory near 76 and has eased to ~67 as price compresses in a 4-pip band at Thursday's 0.8347 prior high, with a rising EMA(20) near 0.8335 and the 38.2% Monday rally fib at 0.8327 the first pullback references.
Support: 0.83347, 0.83272, 0.83189
Resistance: 0.83486, 0.8365, 0.8380
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8349 Monday high extends the breakout toward the 0.8365 range top, with the 0.8380 17m high beyond
Loss of the ema20 near 0.8335 and the 38.2% fib at 0.8327 would turn the move into a deeper retracement; a return below the 0.8319 neckline negates the double bottom
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and ADP (Tue 12:15 UTC) come ahead of US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC), the larger risk to this read
An easing in oil or US yields pulled the pair back late last week and could do so again
V-shaped recovery to the top of the 0.8287–0.8349 multi-day range.
Monday's advance from the 0.8287 week low erased Friday's selloff. The move began at the London open and extended in the NY session as oil-driven safe-haven USD demand and Fed hike pricing lifted the dollar. Price is now pressing Thursday's prior high near 0.8347–0.8349 and holding above EMA(20) near 0.8331, while RSI(14) around 68 has flattened as bars compressed into the NY close and rollover.
Support: 0.8331, 0.8300, 0.8287
Resistance: 0.8349, 0.8365, 0.8380
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.8349 prior high breaks the multi-day range and opens the 0.8365 range top (UOB), with the 0.8380 17m high beyond
Loss of ema20 near 0.8331 and the Monday higher lows trendline shifts focus to the 0.8300 round number
Failure back below 0.8300 exposes the 0.8287 week low and returns the read to range
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Oil reversal or a pullback in US yields is the main unscheduled risk to the Monday rally
21:04 UTC
Uptrend since Monday, momentum stalling at prior high · RSI 76 · price 0.83465
V-recovery from week low into retest of last week's 0.8346–0.8349 high; flat NY consolidation.
Monday's rally started from the 0.8287 week low near the Asia open, below last week's 0.8302 close. It ran about 60 pips through London and the first hours of NY as oil-driven safe-haven demand and hawkish Fed pricing lifted the dollar. Price is now pinned at Thursday's 0.8346 prior high, extended to 0.8349, and has gone sideways through late NY. RSI(14) is overbought near 76 and EMA(20) sits about 15 pips below at 0.8331.
Support: 0.8331, 0.8302, 0.8287
Resistance: 0.8349, 0.8365, 0.8380
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8349 prior high opens the 0.8365 range top, with the 0.8380 17-month high beyond
Rejection at 0.8349 and a slip back under ema20 at 0.8331 would point to a double high and a return into the week's 0.8287–0.8349 range
Loss of the 0.8318–0.8314 50–61.8% zone of the Monday rally exposes last week's 0.8302 close
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
V-shaped reversal from 0.8287 week low; marginal higher high above Thursday's prior high.
Monday opened at 0.8297 and dipped to a 0.8287 week low in Asia. London and then NY drove a roughly 60-pip rally as oil-driven safe-haven demand and hawkish Fed pricing kept the USD bid. Price has edged past Thursday's 0.8347 prior high to a 0.8349 Monday high, but late NY bars have compressed into a 4-pip consolidation with RSI(14) near 78 (overbought) and price well extended above EMA(20) near 0.8333. The 38.2% retracement of the Monday rally sits near 0.8325, just below the EMA(20).
Support: 0.83465, 0.8333, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.83486, 0.8365, 0.8380
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 0.8347 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Acceptance above the 0.8349 Monday high opens the path to the 0.8365 range top (UOB) and the 0.8380 17-mth high
A pullback through the ema20 near 0.8333 and the 38.2% fib at ~0.8325 would flatten the Monday uptrend
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Move back toward the 0.8287 week low would put the whole Monday rally into question
Breakout above last week's high, impulsive higher lows since Asia.
USD/CHF turned higher from Monday's Asian low near 0.8293 in two legs, at the London open and into the NY session. The move came on broad USD demand tied to Middle East tensions and firmer oil, and it cleared last Thursday's 0.8347 prior high. Price is flat at the 0.8349 Monday high in thin holiday trade, with RSI(14) near 76 and overbought. EMA(20) at 0.8333 sits well below price.
Support: 0.83465, 0.8333, 0.8297
Resistance: 0.83486, 0.8365, 0.8380
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 0.8347 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break
Pullback holding the Monday trendline or the 38.2% fib near 0.8327 keeps the impulse structure intact
EMA(20) at 0.8333 is the first test of whether pullbacks find support as on prior cycles
0.8365 range top and the 0.8380 17m high are the next structural references above the Monday high
Loss of the 0.8297 weekly open would erase Monday's advance
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows from Monday's 0.8287 low; marginal break of last week's high.
The Monday rally ran about 60 pips off the 0.8287 low just after the weekly open at 0.8297. London drove the first leg and the NY session extended it, while thin US-holiday trade and an oil-led USD bid on Middle East tensions added support. Price is pressing the prior high at 0.83465 from last week, with the 0.83485 session high capping so far. RSI(14) sits in overbought territory and price is stretched well above the ema20 near 0.8328, which lines up with the midday base around 0.8330.
Support: 0.83465, 0.8328, 0.82974
Resistance: 0.83485, 0.8365, 0.8380
What it said to watch
H1 closes back below the 0.83465 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
A pullback holding the ema20 around 0.8328 and the Monday higher lows keeps the uptrend structure intact
A clear move through the 0.83485 session high opens the 0.8365 range top, then the 0.8380 17-month high
Failure back below the 0.8297 weekly open would erase the Monday rally
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
17:03 UTC
Uptrend since Monday's Asian low, stretched · RSI 74 · price 0.83465
Higher lows through Monday, pressing the top of last week's 0.8296–0.8347 range.
USDCHF has climbed about 56 pips off Monday's 0.8293 Asian low and printed a 0.83485 week high. The move started at London open and extended through NY hours as an oil and Iran-driven haven bid lifted the USD in thin holiday trade. Price has now nudged past Thursday's 0.83465 top and sits above the 0.8342 prior high, with Monday's higher lows unbroken. RSI(14) near 74 is the most stretched reading of the window, with the 38.2% retrace of the Monday rally at 0.8327 the first fib reference below.
Support: 0.83417, 0.83271, 0.82974
Resistance: 0.83485, 0.8365, 0.8380
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 0.8342 prior high would turn the push above Thursday's top into a false break inside the range
A break of the Monday higher lows line, around 0.8343 at present, would end the steady intraday sequence
A sustained hold above 0.8350 opens the 0.8365 range top, with the 0.8380 17m high above that
A slide through the fib 38.2 at 0.8327 toward the 0.8297 weekly open would erase most of Monday's gain
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
16:02 UTC
Sharp rebound to range top, overbought · RSI 74 · price 0.83469
Testing a break above last week's range high after a V-shaped Monday rally.
USD/CHF dipped to 0.8287 in Monday's Asian session, below the 0.8297 weekly open, then climbed about 60 pips through London and into the NY session on broad USD demand tied to Middle East tensions and the oil rebound. The move has pushed just past Thursday's 0.8346 prior high, the top of last week's 0.8296–0.8346 range, and set a Monday high at 0.8348. Price sits well above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 74 after a near one-way climb. The London shelf around 0.8327 lines up with the 38.2% retracement of Monday's leg, and thin US-holiday liquidity flatters the move.
Support: 0.8346, 0.8327, 0.8297
Resistance: 0.8348, 0.8365, 0.8380
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 0.8346 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break and put price back inside last week's range
A sustained push past the 0.8348 Monday high brings the 0.8365 range top into view, with the 0.8380 17-month high the next reference
A break below the London shelf at 0.8327 (38.2% of Monday's leg) would also breach Monday's higher-low trendline
Losing the 0.8297 weekly open would erase Monday's rebound
Fed's Hammack (16:50 UTC today), Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
15:02 UTC
Range-bound, sharp Monday upswing into the top · RSI 79 · price 0.83425
0.8296–0.8347 range, price pressing the prior high.
From the weekly open at 0.8297 and an Asia week low near 0.8287, the pair climbed about 55 pips from London open. It paused on a Monday shelf around 0.8326, then the first hour of NY pushed it to 0.8345, back at Thursday's 0.8347 prior high. The move tracks broad USD firmness on Middle East tensions, firmer oil and doubts over the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire, though holiday-thinned liquidity limits follow-through. RSI(14) near 79 is overbought after an almost one-way session, with price well clear of EMA(20) and EMA(50) and riding the steep Monday trendline.
Support: 0.8326, 0.8297, 0.8287
Resistance: 0.8347, 0.8365, 0.8380
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8347 prior high breaks the week's range and opens the 0.8365 range top, then the 0.8380 17m high
A second stall below 0.8347 would leave a double-top shape at the range ceiling
Loss of the Monday trendline and the 0.8326 monday shelf would return price to the middle of the range
Failure to hold the 0.8297 weekly open would erase Monday's gain and put the week low back in focus
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC today and US CPI on Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
V-recovery from 0.8293 into the 0.8342–0.8347 high zone; afternoon consolidation above 0.8326.
USD/CHF has recovered most of the Thursday-to-Monday drop. That decline began in Thursday's NY session off the 0.8347 week high and bottomed near 0.8293 in Asia, after which the London open lifted the pair about 45 pips as oil-driven USD haven demand returned. Price sits above EMA(20) near 0.8318, which has just crossed above EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 74. The rally is testing the 78.6% retracement of that drop just beneath Wednesday's 0.8342 prior high. Since late London the pair has held a tight consolidation, with the intraday low at 0.8326 as its base.
Support: 0.8326, 0.8318, 0.8297
Resistance: 0.8342, 0.8347, 0.8365
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8342 prior high and 0.8347 week high would open the 0.8365 range top flagged by analysts
A rejection at the prior high with RSI(14) above 70 would leave a lower high versus Thursday
A break of the intraday low at 0.8326 and the Monday rising trendline puts EMA(20) near 0.8318 back in play; below that, the weekly open at 0.8297
Fed Hammack (Mon 16:50 UTC) and Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) ahead of Wednesday's US CPI (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Thursday lower high at 0.8346 intact; higher lows since Monday open.
USD/CHF ran from 0.8306 to the 0.8334 Monday high during the London session. It reclaimed EMA(20) as Middle East escalation and an oil bounce sent haven flow into the USD rather than the CHF. The move has retraced roughly 75% of the Thursday-to-Monday slide from the 0.8346 week high to the 0.8287 weekly low. Price is now stalling just under the Monday high with RSI(14) near 77, in thin, holiday-affected trade.
Support: 0.8316, 0.8300, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.83339, 0.83465, 0.8365
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.8346 week high breaks Thursday's lower high and brings the 0.8365 range top into view.
Rejection under the Monday high plus a slip below ema20 (~0.8316) and the Monday lows trendline points back to the 0.8300 psych area.
Failure to hold the 0.8287 weekly low would mark a lower low and break the week's range floor.
Fed speakers (Hammack today 16:50 UTC, Waller Tue 07:45 UTC) and US CPI on Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
London-led rally broke the Thu–Fri lower highs, now testing midweek range.
Thursday's NY-session drop from the 0.8347 week high set a lower-highs sequence into Friday's 0.8296 low. Monday's London open reversed it from the 0.8293 monday low as oil-driven haven demand favoured the USD over the CHF, lifting price through EMA(20) near 0.8313 and Friday's 0.8319 high. Price now sits between the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement of the Thursday–Monday decline, with RSI(14) near 70 into the 0.8336 mid-wk cap that held Tuesday–Wednesday.
Support: 0.8313, 0.8300, 0.8293
Resistance: 0.8336, 0.8347
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8336 mid-wk cap puts the 0.8347 week high back in play
Loss of EMA(20) at 0.8313 and the Monday trend line revives the lower-highs read toward psych 0.8300
Break below the 0.8293 monday low confirms a fresh lower-low
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and thin US-holiday liquidity could distort this read; US CPI Wed is the larger risk
Double bottom near 0.8293–0.8296, Thu–Fri lower-high line broken, Monday higher lows.
USD/CHF slid from Thursday's 0.8347 prior high into a double bottom at 0.8296 Friday and 0.8293 Monday. From the London open it broke the Thu-Fri lower highs line and reclaimed EMA(20) and EMA(50), which have converged near 0.8313. The move came on a haven USD bid as Middle East escalation lifted oil, and it has retraced about 71% of the decline with RSI(14) near 70. Price is now pressing the 0.8335 congestion from Wednesday and Thursday, which coincides with the 78.6% fib.
Support: 0.8313, 0.8300, 0.8293
Resistance: 0.8335, 0.8347, 0.8365
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8335 congestion opens the 0.8347 prior high, with the 0.8365 range top beyond
A drop back below EMA(20) near 0.8313 and the 0.8300 round number would break the Monday higher lows line
Failure to hold the 0.8293 weekly low invalidates the double bottom read
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC lands in thin US-holiday liquidity. Wednesday's US CPI is the larger risk to this read
10:03 UTC
Range-bound, sharp London rebound off week low · RSI 71 · price 0.83318
0.8287–0.8347 range; Monday lower low reclaimed, price back at upper-half congestion.
Thursday's London push to the 0.8347 prior high failed in NY. Friday's slide during NY hours led to a Monday Asia sweep of Friday's low to a 0.8287 week low, which was quickly reclaimed above the 0.8297 weekly open. London's ~40-pip rebound, with USD firming into CPI week against a soft franc, cleared the 0.8319 Friday high and the 0.8312 EMA cluster along a line of rising lows. It is now pressing the 0.8334–0.8336 congestion near the 78.6% retrace of the Thursday–Monday drop, with RSI(14) near 71 overbought and ATR(14) around 7 pips.
Support: 0.8319, 0.8312, 0.8287
Resistance: 0.8336, 0.8347
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.8336 congestion opens the 0.8347 prior high; rejection there keeps the range read intact
A close back below the 0.8319 Friday high and the rising lows line would mark the London move as a false break
Loss of the 0.8312 EMA cluster returns focus to the 0.8287 week low
Fed's Hammack 16:50 UTC today and Waller Tue 07:45 UTC can move US yields in thin holiday trade; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main risk to the range
Lower-high/lower-low sequence since Thursday challenged by Monday's London rally.
Monday's Asia dip swept below Friday's 0.8296 low to the 0.8287 monday low. The London open then reclaimed the 0.8297 weekly open and both EMAs, despite softer US yields and thin holiday trade. The rally broke the lower-highs line from Thursday's 0.8347 prior high and is now testing the fib 61.8 of the Thursday–Monday drop near 0.8324, with RSI(14) near 68, its firmest reading since Thursday's NY selloff.
Support: 0.8317, 0.8297, 0.8287
Resistance: 0.8324, 0.8336, 0.8347
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8324 fib 61.8 opens the 0.8336 prior cap, where Wednesday–Thursday rallies stalled
Slip back below the 0.8317 fib 50 returns focus to the 0.8297 weekly open
Failure to hold the 0.8287 monday low resumes the lower-low sequence
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC today and Wednesday's US CPI could materially shift this read
08:03 UTC
Rebound inside a short-term downtrend, testing the lower high · RSI 59 · price 0.83175
Lower highs and lows since Thursday's peak; Monday low reclaimed, higher lows since.
The Tuesday–Thursday advance peaked at the 0.8347 week high around Thursday's London open. The reversal in Thursday's NY session then set lower highs and lower lows through Friday, and Monday's thin US-holiday open spiked to the 0.8287 monday low before being reclaimed. A London-open rally on short-CHF positioning has cleared the lower-high line from Thursday's peak and lifted price above EMA(20) and EMA(50) to test the friday high at 0.8319, the 50% retracement of the decline, with RSI(14) near 59 after recovering from the mid-30s.
Support: 0.8306, 0.8297, 0.8287
Resistance: 0.8319, 0.8347
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8319 friday high extends the lower-high line breakout toward the 61.8% retracement at 0.8324 and the 0.8347 week high
Rejection at 0.8319 followed by a break of the monday higher lows trendline would mark the rebound as another lower high
A slip back below ema20 at 0.8306 and the 0.8297 weekly open puts the 0.8287 monday low back in play; a break there resumes the lower-low sequence
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC today and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.7% y/y, 0.6% m/m) could materially shift this read; holiday liquidity is thin until then
Lower highs and lower lows from Thursday's 0.8347 high; Monday rebound stalling at a 0.8310 confluence.
The pair has carved lower highs and lower lows since the 0.8347 thu high. The slide came mainly in NY hours on Thursday and Friday as US yields eased and the dollar softened. Monday's Asian-session rebound from the 0.8293 monday low, after a thin 0.8287 spike low at the open, has lifted price back above EMA(20) at 0.8304, with RSI(14) back near 52. Supply is capping the move at 0.8310, where the monday high, EMA(50), the 38.2% retracement of the Thursday–Monday drop and the lower-high line from Friday all converge.
Support: 0.83044, 0.82926, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.83099, 0.83189, 0.83465
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.8310 (monday high / 38.2%) breaks the lower-high line and puts the 0.8319 friday high in play
Close above the 0.8319 friday high would negate the lower-high sequence from the 0.8347 thu high
Slip back below the ema20 at 0.8304 reopens the 0.8293 monday low, then the 0.8287 spike low
Fed's Hammack today 16:50 UTC and Waller Tue are lead-ins to Wed US CPI, which could materially shift this read