HH/HL chain since the Aug 19 low; Oct 1 pullback held above the 38.2% retracement.
USDCHF has carved higher lows since the Aug 19 low at 0.7950, with the Sep 3 sep low at 0.8052 and the Oct 1 swing low at 0.8227 sitting on a rising trendline. The Sep 16 breakout above the 0.8207 july high ended the summer range, and the Sep 30 swing high at 0.8382 (17-month high) drew a rejection. Since then the pullback held just above the 38.2% level of the Aug–Sep rally fib, and Monday's close at 0.8347 sits back near the top of a 0.8287–0.8347 band. Price holds above a rising EMA(50) as USD stays bid on a hawkish Fed and oil-driven haven demand, while CHF is used as a funding currency.
Support: 0.82271, 0.82068, 0.80521
Resistance: 0.83824, 0.8400
What it said to watch
A daily close above the 0.8382 swing high opens the 0.8400 round number and clears the multi-month high.
A break below the 0.8227 swing low would breach the rising trendline and end the higher-low sequence.
Below that, the 0.8207 july high is the former range top; failure there exposes the 0.8052 sep low.
US September CPI on Wed Oct 14: a hot core print or a soft miss could materially shift this read.
18:32 UTC
Uptrend since August low, pausing below cycle high · RSI 64 · price 0.83456
HH/HL chain from 0.7950; tight range under 0.8382 high.
Uptrend since the Aug 20 low at 0.7950. The mid-September break above the 0.8207 prior high, the July cap, ended a two-month 0.80–0.82 range and set up a higher-high/higher-low chain, with price holding above a rising EMA(50). After the Oct 1 rejection at the 0.8382 cycle high, the Oct 2 swing low at 0.8227 held near the 38.2% level of the Aug–Oct fib. Price has since spent the past week in a 0.8290–0.8347 range and closed Monday at the range high, as hawkish Fed pricing and the Fed–SNB rate gap keep USD firm against CHF.
Support: 0.8290, 0.8227, 0.8207
Resistance: 0.8347, 0.8382, 0.8400
What it said to watch
Daily close above the 0.8347 range high reopens the 0.8382 cycle high, with the 0.8400 round number beyond.
Close below the 0.8290 range low exposes the 0.8227 swing low and 38.2% fib; losing that breaks the rising trendline from the Aug low and the HL chain.
A slide back toward the 0.8207 prior high would put the September breakout under retest.
US CPI Wed Oct 14 12:30 UTC, particularly core MoM (f/c 0.2%), could materially shift this read; Fed speakers Waller and Bowman are due beforehand.
RSI near 64 leaves room before daily overbought; a new high on lower RSI would flag fading momentum.