HH/HL chain off the 0.8302 low, flat NY top at 0.8349, lower highs since rollover.
The London open broke out of the Asian range and ran from 0.8302 to a 0.8349 NY high, a 47-pip leg on broad USD strength and higher oil. NY flatlined under that high. Early Asia is now easing to 0.8342, with RSI(14) near 40 and price just under both EMAs, sitting above the 0.8340 roll low and the fib 23.6 at 0.8338.
Support: 0.83397, 0.83375, 0.83265
Resistance: 0.83486, 0.8365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8340 roll low and fib 23.6 (0.8338) opens the London base near 0.8327
Reclaim of the 0.8349 NY high puts 0.8365 in play, the UOB range top
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC, around London open) could materially shift this read
Middle East or oil headlines have driven USD/CHF all week and could move it outside the session range
HH/HL chain from London open, flat consolidation since late NY.
London broke the Asian range high at 0.8310 at the open and carried through NY to a 0.83486 session high, in step with broad USD strength on oil and haven demand. The rollover gap down to the 0.83375 rollover low was bought back to the 0.8346 gap fill, but early Asia is drifting back toward the 0.8340 swing low with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 0.8340, 0.83375, 0.8334
Resistance: 0.8346, 0.83486, 0.8350
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8340 swing low and 0.83375 rollover low exposes the 0.8334 london high and the 23.6% fib
Reclaim of the 0.8346 gap fill puts the 0.83486 session high and 0.8350 round number back in play
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC Tuesday could materially shift this read
23:16 UTC
Uptrend, stalled below day high · RSI 43 · price 0.83437
Tight range 0.8338–0.8349 after a London/NY leg higher.
Monday's London open broke above the 0.8293–0.8302 Asian range, and NY extended the leg to a 0.8349 day high on broad USD strength and an oil-driven haven bid. Price then flatlined into the close. Early Tuesday Asia opened with a thin rollover gap to a 0.8338 rollover low that has mostly refilled; price is coiling just under the day high, with RSI(14) neutral near 43 and ATR at only ~2.4 pips.
Support: 0.83375, 0.83265
Resistance: 0.83486, 0.8365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8349 day high reopens the leg toward the 0.8365 uob top (UOB range top)
Failure to hold the 0.8338 rollover low exposes the 0.8327 london base, near the 38.2% fib of the Asia-to-day-high move
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC lands into London open and could break the overnight range
Middle East / energy headlines remain the unscheduled driver for this pair via oil and US yields
23:02 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under session high · RSI 49 · price 0.83454
Tight range below 0.8349 after London-NY leg higher.
The London open broke the Asian range high near 0.8310. NY extended the London-NY leg from 0.8293 to a 0.83486 session high on broad USD strength from oil and haven demand. The session high was capped three times, and price has gone flat in a 0.8344–0.8349 band. The rollover gap down to the 0.83375 rollover low has been filled, with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 0.83443, 0.83375, 0.83339
Resistance: 0.83486, 0.8350, 0.8365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.83486 session high and 0.8350 round number reopens the 0.8365 range top
Break below the 0.83443 ny range low and the rollover low at 0.83375 exposes the 0.8334 london high
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC during London hours could shift the read
Higher lows from the Asian low; flat top 0.8344–0.8349 since late NY.
London broke the Asian range high at 0.8310 at the open, and NY extended the rally to a 0.8349 session high on broad USD strength from oil-driven haven demand. Price has since flattened in a tight 0.8344–0.8349 band, the late NY low. The rollover gap to 0.8338 (gap low) filled quickly, holding above the 23.6% level of the Asia-NY rally fib and the 0.8334 London high. RSI(14) sits neutral near 45 and price is flat on EMA20, with ATR around 2.6 pips in thin early-Asia trade.
Support: 0.83443, 0.83375, 0.83339
Resistance: 0.83486, 0.8365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8349 session high opens the 0.8365 range top (UOB range ceiling)
Failure to hold the 0.8338 gap low exposes the 0.8334 London high and the 38.2% Asia-NY rally fib near 0.8327
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) around London open could materially shift this read
Unscheduled Middle East or Russia-Ukraine headlines moving oil and US yields
London breakout from Asian range, NY extension to day high, now tight range below 0.8349.
London open broke the Asian range top near 0.8310 and NY extended the rally to a day high at 0.83486, carried by oil-driven USD demand. Price has since gone flat below that high, and the rollover gap to 0.8340 (rollover low 0.83397) has been fully reclaimed in early Asia, with RSI(14) back at neutral 48.
Support: 0.83397, 0.83351, 0.83265
Resistance: 0.83486, 0.8365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.83486 day high reopens the 0.8365 UOB range top
Loss of the 0.83397 rollover low exposes the 0.83351 swing low near the 23.6% of the day rally fib, then the 0.83265 london low near the 38.2%
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and Middle East / oil headlines could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from London open, now a tight 0.8344–0.8349 range.
USDCHF cleared the Asian range at London open and stair-stepped about 55 pips to a 0.83486 session high in NY. Broad USD demand on the oil-driven haven bid and a hawkish Fed drove the move. Since mid-NY, price has compressed in a 4-pip range low-to-high band, and the rollover spike to 0.8338 was quickly reclaimed above the 23.6% fib of the Asia low-high leg. RSI(14) is neutral near 49.
Support: 0.83443, 0.8340, 0.83339
Resistance: 0.83486, 0.8350, 0.8365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.83486 session high reopens the 0.8350 round number and the 0.8365 range top (UOB)
Failure to hold the 0.8344 range low exposes the 0.8340 ny pivot, then the 0.8334 london high
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC Tue, near London open, could break the current compression
Unscheduled Middle East or oil headlines remain the main swing factor for USD/CHF
HH/HL chain from the Asian low; tight coil under 0.8349, then a rollover gap lower.
London broke the Asian range top near 0.8310, and NY extended the climb to a 0.8349 session high as oil-driven USD demand persisted. Price then coiled flat under that high. A thin rollover gap tagged the 0.8338–0.8340 gap low, and early Asia has retraced to 0.8344, with RSI(14) near 47.
Support: 0.8340, 0.8330
Resistance: 0.8349, 0.8365
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8340 gap low exposes the 0.8330 london base and the 38.2% fib of the Asia low to NY high leg (~0.8327)
M15 close above the 0.8349 session high resumes the HH chain toward the 0.8365 range top (UOB)
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and oil / Middle East headlines could materially shift this read
Asian range broken higher; flat late-NY shelf under 0.8349.
London broke the 0.8293–0.8310 Asian range at the open, and NY extended to a 0.8349 session high on oil-driven USD demand. Late NY then went flat just under that high. The thin rollover gapped down to the 0.8338 rollover low, the 23.6% retrace of the London rally, and has since partly filled. Price sits back under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 0.83375, 0.83339, 0.83265
Resistance: 0.83486, 0.8365
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.8349 session high puts the 0.8350–0.8365 range top (UOB) in play
Break of the 0.8338 rollover low exposes the 0.8334 London high and the 38.2% retrace near 0.8331
Loss of the 0.8327 London low would end the intraday higher-low chain
Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and oil / Middle East headlines could materially shift this read ahead of Wednesday's US CPI
21:32 UTC
Uptrend, stalled after rollover gap · RSI 44 · price 0.83408
HH/HL chain from Asian low; late-NY plateau, gap lower at rollover.
USDCHF broke the 0.8293–0.8310 Asian range at London open and stair-stepped through NY to a session high at 0.8349. Oil-driven safe-haven USD demand and hike bets drove the day rally. The late-NY plateau gave way to a 9-pip gap lower at the thin daily rollover to 0.8338 (rollover low). Price is now sitting at 0.8341, below EMA20, with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 0.83375, 0.83326, 0.8325
Resistance: 0.83486, 0.8365
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.8349 session high resumes the HH chain toward the 0.8365 range top (UOB range top)
Failure to hold the 0.8338 rollover low exposes the 0.8333 london high, then the 0.8325 pullback low near the 38.2% of the day rally
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and oil / Middle East headlines could materially shift this read
HH/HL from Asia lows; flat shelf 0.8344–0.8349 since late NY.
London open broke the Asian range top near 0.8310, and NY extended the rally to a 0.8349 session high as the USD caught a bid on oil-driven safe-haven demand. Price then flatlined under the session high. The thin rollover bar gapped down to 0.8338 and left price below EMA20, with RSI(14) easing to about 35.
Support: 0.8338, 0.8333, 0.8327
Resistance: 0.8349, 0.8365, 0.8380
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8338 rollover low exposes the 0.8333 london high and the 38.2% fib of the rally near 0.8327.
A close above the 0.8349 session high brings the 0.8365 range top and the 0.8380 17m high into view.
Waller Tue 07:45 UTC, plus Middle East and oil headlines, could materially shift this read.
21:03 UTC
Uptrend, stalled into rollover · RSI 52 · price 0.83465
HH/HL chain from Asian low, now a tight late-NY range below session high.
The day's rally ran from the 0.8287 Asian low. London broke the Asian range at the 07:00 UTC open, and NY extended to a 0.8349 session high on oil-driven USD demand. Since mid-NY, price has compressed in a 4-pip band between the 0.8344 range low and the session high into the rollover, with RSI(14) neutral near 52 and ATR(14) at about 1.6 pips.
Support: 0.83443, 0.8340, 0.83339
Resistance: 0.83486, 0.8350, 0.8365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8344 range low exposes the 0.8340 breakout zone, then the 0.8334 London high
Clearance of the 0.8349 session high and 0.8350 round number puts the 0.8365 range top (UOB) in play
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and oil / Middle East headlines could materially shift this read
London breakout of the Asian range, NY extension, now a tight 4-pip box under the day high.
London open broke the Asian range high near 0.8310, and the NY session pushed through the 0.8334 london high to a 0.8349 day high. The move came on broad USD strength from oil-driven haven demand. Since then price has compressed in a 0.8344–0.8349 box through late NY, with RSI(14) cooled to about 60 and ATR down to under 2 pips.
Support: 0.83443, 0.83339, 0.83265
Resistance: 0.83486, 0.8365, 0.8380
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8349 day high reopens the 0.8365 UOB range top, with the 0.8380 17m high beyond
Failure to hold the 0.8344 range low exposes the 0.8334 london high, then the 0.8327 swing low near the 38.2% of the london-ny leg
Thin Asia session liquidity; Waller speaks Tue 07:45 UTC, and oil or Middle East headlines remain the unscheduled driver
20:31 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under 0.8349 · RSI 60 · price 0.8347
Asian range break at London open, NY higher high, now a tight late-NY box.
Firm USD on oil-driven haven demand and hawkish Fed pricing lifted the pair out of the 0.8287–0.8310 Asian range at London open. The NY session broke the 0.8334 prior cap through the 0.8340 NY pivot to a 0.8349 session high, retracing about 62 pips of the day's rally from the Asian low. Late NY has compressed into a 5-pip box between the 0.8344 consol low and that high, with ATR down near 2 pips.
Support: 0.8344, 0.8340, 0.8334
Resistance: 0.8349, 0.8365, 0.8380
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8349 session high exposes 0.8365, the UOB range top, with the 17m high at 0.8380 next
Failure to hold the 0.8344 consol low and the 0.8340 NY pivot ends the late-NY consolidation and puts the 0.8334 prior cap back in focus
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and oil or geopolitical headlines could materially shift this read before Wednesday's US CPI
Asian range break higher, now a tight flag under the session high.
London open broke the 0.8293–0.8310 Asian range and the London-NY rally carried to a 0.8349 session high on oil-driven USD demand. Since mid-NY, price has compressed in a 4-pip band just under the 0.8350 round number. RSI(14) has cooled to ~61 and ATR is down to ~1.8 pips.
Support: 0.83443, 0.83401, 0.8325
Resistance: 0.83486, 0.8350, 0.8365
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.8349 session high and 0.8350 round number opens the 0.8365 range top (UOB)
Loss of the 0.8344 late NY low exposes the 0.8340 swing low; below that, the fib 50% near 0.8325 comes into view
Waller speaks Tue 07:45 UTC near London open; oil and Middle East headlines remain the unscheduled risk to this read
20:02 UTC
Uptrend, stalling into the close · RSI 55 · price 0.83474
HH/HL chain since the London open; flat range low 0.8344 to session high 0.8349 since 16:00 UTC.
Support: 0.83443, 0.83265, 0.83099
Resistance: 0.83486, 0.8365, 0.8038
19:47 UTC
Uptrend, stalling late NY · RSI 66 · price 0.83471
HH/HL chain from the Asian range break, now a tight flag under 0.8350.
London open broke the Asian range high at 0.8310, and the advance extended through NY to a 0.8349 session high. The move tracked firmer USD as oil rose on Middle East escalation. Late NY has compressed into a 0.8344–0.8349 band above the NY low, just under the 0.8350 round number, with the rising trendline from the 0.8302 London low intact and RSI(14) easing to the mid-60s.
Support: 0.83443, 0.83388, 0.83339
Resistance: 0.83486, 0.8350, 0.8365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8349 session high and 0.8350 round number opens 0.8365, the UOB range top
Break of the 0.8344 NY low exposes the 0.8339 NY breakout shelf and the 0.8334 London high
Loss of the rising trendline would end the intraday HL sequence
Unscheduled Middle East or oil headlines and Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
19:31 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalled late NY · RSI 58 · price 0.8347
HH/HL chain from Asian range breakout, now a tight flag under the session high.
London open broke the Asian range top at 0.8310. NY extended the move to a 0.8349 session high as oil-driven Fed-hike bets lifted USD, with RSI(14) cooling from overbought. Since London close, price has compressed in a 0.8344–0.8349 band above the late low, on a rising support line, just under the 0.8350–0.8365 range top.
Support: 0.8344, 0.8340, 0.8327
Resistance: 0.8349, 0.8365, 0.8380
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8349 session high brings the 0.8365 range top, then the 0.8380 17m high, into play
Loss of the 0.8344 late low and the ny swing low at 0.8340 breaks the rising support line and the HL chain
Below 0.8340, the asia-ny leg 38.2% retracement near 0.8325 sits beside the 0.8327 london base
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) during the London session, then Wed US CPI, could materially shift this read
19:17 UTC
Uptrend, stalled in late NY · RSI 53 · price 0.8347
HH/HL chain from London open; flat 4-pip shelf since 14:45 UTC.
USD bid on Middle East and oil headlines carried the pair through the Asian range high near 0.8310 at London open and on to a 0.8349 session high in NY. Since 14:45 UTC price has held in a tight 0.8344–0.8349 band after London close, with RSI(14) back to neutral and ATR compressed near 2 pips. The 38.2% fib of the London–NY leg sits at 0.8331, well below the band.
Support: 0.83443, 0.8340, 0.83307
Resistance: 0.83486, 0.8365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8349 session high resumes the leg toward the 0.8365 range top cited in the digest
Break of the 0.8344 range low exposes the 0.8340 ny breakout area, then the 38.2% fib near 0.8331
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC and unscheduled Middle East/oil headlines could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since London open; tight late-NY range under session high.
London open broke the Asian range high near 0.8307 as USD turned bid on Middle East tension and firmer oil. NY extended the move to a 0.83486 session high, and price has since compressed in a 4-pip band above the 0.83443 range low, with RSI(14) cooled to around 61. The midday low at 0.83265 sits on the 38.2% fib of the 0.8293–0.8349 leg.
Support: 0.83443, 0.83401, 0.83265
Resistance: 0.83486, 0.8350, 0.8365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8350 round number opens the 0.8365 range top cited by UOB
Loss of the 0.83443 range low exposes the 0.83401 NY pivot
Break below the 0.83265 midday low / 38.2% fib ends the HH/HL chain
Thin, holiday-affected trade with Japan and US markets out; Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since London open; late-NY compression just under the session high.
London open broke the 0.8287–0.8307 Asian range. Price then stepped higher through NY to a 0.83485 session high on broad USD demand tied to oil and Middle East tension, in holiday-thin trade. Late NY has compressed into a 4-pip band above the 0.8344 drift low, with RSI(14) cooling to ~61.
Support: 0.83443, 0.8334, 0.83306
Resistance: 0.83485, 0.8350, 0.8365
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.8344 drift low opens a retest of the 0.8334 london high, the prior breakout shelf
A break of the 0.83485 session high puts the 0.8350 round number and the 0.8365 range top in play
Loss of the fib 38.2 at 0.8331 would break the London-NY higher-low chain
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC and unscheduled Middle East headlines could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from Asia low, tight consolidation late NY.
USD/CHF broke the 0.8310 Asian range high at London open and cleared the 0.8334 london high in the first hour of NY. It printed a 0.8349 session high on broad USD strength tied to oil and Middle East tensions. Since 16:45 UTC price has compressed in a 4-pip band just above the 0.8344 drift low, with RSI(14) easing to ~61 and ATR down near 2 pips.
Support: 0.83443, 0.8334, 0.83265
Resistance: 0.83485, 0.8365, 0.8380
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8349 session high exposes the 0.8365 range top, with the 0.8380 17m high next
Loss of the 0.8344 drift low opens a retest of the 0.8334 london high
Break below the 0.8327 london low, which sits at the 38.2% fib, undoes the Asia-to-NY HH/HL chain
Thin Asia trade into Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC); oil and Middle East headlines could materially shift this read
18:16 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalling late NY · RSI 63 · price 0.83458
HH/HL chain since London open, now a tight shelf under the session high.
USD firmness on Middle East tension and firmer oil drove the move. London open broke the Asian range high near 0.8310, and the NY session cleared the London high at 0.8334 to print a session high at 0.8349. Late NY price is compressing in a 4-pip range low/high band at 0.8344–0.8349, with RSI(14) cooled to 63 and ATR down to roughly 2.4 pips.
Support: 0.83443, 0.83339, 0.83265
Resistance: 0.83485, 0.8350, 0.8365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8344 range low exposes the London high at 0.8334, then the London shelf near 0.8326 (38.2% fib of the day's rally)
Close above the 0.8349 session high brings the 0.8350 round number and the 0.8365 UOB top into play
Thin Asia session ahead; unscheduled Middle East or oil headlines could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from London open, now a tight 4-pip consolidation.
London open broke the Asian range high near 0.8310, and price stair-stepped through NY on the oil- and Iran-driven USD bid, clearing the 0.8334 london high. Since 15:45 UTC price has compressed between the 0.8345 range low and the 0.83485 session high in thin US-holiday trade, with RSI(14) cooling to ~66 and ATR down to ~3 pips.
Support: 0.83447, 0.8334, 0.8325
Resistance: 0.83485, 0.8365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.83485 session high and 0.8350 extends the trend toward the 0.8365 range top
Failure to hold the 0.8345 range low exposes the 0.8334 london high, then the 0.8325 london low near the 50% fib
Unscheduled Middle East/Ukraine headlines in thin holiday liquidity could materially shift this read; Fed's Waller speaks Tue 07:45 UTC
HH/HL chain since London open; tight 0.8345–0.8349 range below session high.
London open broke the Asian range high at 0.8310 on the oil/Iran-driven USD bid, and NY extended the HH/HL chain through the 0.8339 breakout level to a 0.8349 session high. Late NY, with US holiday liquidity thin, price is flat in a 4-pip NY range low/high box just under the 0.8350 round number, RSI(14) cooling to 66 and sitting on the London trendline.
Support: 0.83447, 0.83388, 0.83265
Resistance: 0.83485, 0.8350, 0.8365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the London trendline and the 0.8345 NY range low shifts the read to a pullback toward the 0.8339 breakout level
Acceptance above the 0.8349 session high and 0.8350 round number opens the 0.8365 range top
Loss of the 0.8327 London base would retrace over half the London leg fib and break the HL sequence
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC and oil/Iran headlines could materially shift this read
17:31 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 68 · price 0.83465
HH/HL chain since London open, flat top at 0.8348.
London open broke the Asian range high at 0.8310, and NY extended through the 0.8334 London high as the USD caught an oil and Iran-driven bid. Late in thin US-holiday NY trade, price is stalling under the 0.8349 session high. The swing low at 0.8340 sits on the rising support, and RSI(14) has cooled to about 68.
Support: 0.83447, 0.83401, 0.83339
Resistance: 0.83485, 0.8350
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.8349 session high and the 0.8350 round number opens the 0.8365 range top flagged in the CHF digest.
A break of the 0.8345 pullback low and the 0.8340 swing low, below the rising support, would put a retest of the 0.8334 London high in play.
The London high near 0.8332–0.8334 lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the London-open leg.
Waller on Tuesday at 07:45 UTC and unscheduled Iran/oil headlines could shift this read; US CPI on Wednesday is the larger event.
17:02 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 69 · price 0.83458
HH/HL stair-step since London open; tight flag under 0.8350 late NY.
London open broke the Asian range high near 0.8310 and price stepped higher on the oil/Middle East USD bid. NY cleared the 0.8334 london high, held a ny pivot at 0.8340 and printed a 0.83485 session high. Late NY has gone flat under 0.8350 in thin holiday trade, RSI(14) cooling to ~69.
Support: 0.8340, 0.83339, 0.83265
Resistance: 0.83485, 0.8365, 0.8380
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.83485 session high opens the 0.8365 range top (UOB), with the 0.8380 17m high beyond
Loss of the 0.8340 ny pivot puts the 0.8334 london high retest in play; 38.2% fib sits near 0.8331
Break below the 0.8326 london low ends the intraday HL chain
US holiday liquidity and unscheduled Iran/oil headlines could jolt this; Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC is the next scheduled risk
16:46 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 76 · price 0.8347
HH/HL chain from London open; flat under 0.8348 late NY.
London opened with a break above the 0.8287–0.8310 Asian range as USD firmed on Middle East tension and an oil bounce. NY then cleared the 0.8325–0.8334 midday box, from london low to london high, and made a 0.8348 session high. Late-NY bars are compressing under that high with RSI(14) ~76, and the 0.8340 ny pivot held the last dip.
Support: 0.8340, 0.8334, 0.8325
Resistance: 0.8348, 0.8365, 0.8380
What it said to watch
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could materially shift this read within the next bar
M15 close above the 0.8348 session high opens the 0.8365 UOB range top, then the 0.8380 17-mo high
Loss of the 0.8340 ny pivot puts a retest of the 0.8334 london high in play
Break below the 0.8325 london low and the rising trendline would end the London-NY HH/HL chain and retrace the bulk of the london-ny leg
Waller Tue 07:45 UTC lands in the London session and could reset the range
16:31 UTC
Uptrend, pace slowing near highs · RSI 74 · price 0.83471
HH/HL chain since Asia; Asian and London highs broken.
London open broke the Asian high at 0.8310 and NY hours pushed through the London high at 0.8334 to a 0.8348 session high. The move came on a broad USD bid tied to Middle East tensions and an oil bounce. RSI(14) near 74 and bars narrowing just under the 0.8350 round number point to slowing pace in thin holiday trade, with the 0.8293–0.8348 leg from the Asian low intact.
Support: 0.83339, 0.83265, 0.83099
Resistance: 0.83484, 0.8350, 0.8365
What it said to watch
Close back below the 0.8334 london high would turn the NY breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.8327 swing low breaks the intraday HH/HL chain
0.8350 round number, then 0.8365 range top (UOB): areas to watch for rejection or break
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and unscheduled Iran/oil headlines could shift this read
Deeper pullback toward the 0.8310 asian high would retrace about half the 0.8293–0.8348 leg
16:16 UTC
Uptrend, stretched near session high · RSI 79 · price 0.83471
HH/HL chain since London broke the Asian range.
London open broke the 0.8293–0.8307 Asian range, and the HH/HL chain has extended through NY to a 0.8348 session high on USD demand tied to Middle East tension and the oil bounce. Volumes are thin with a US holiday. RSI(14) near 79 is stretched, with the 0.8350 round number and the 0.8365 range top overhead; the 0.8334 prior high is the first breakout reference below.
Support: 0.8334, 0.8327
Resistance: 0.83484, 0.8350, 0.8365
What it said to watch
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could materially shift this read in thin holiday liquidity
M15 close above the 0.8350 round number brings the 0.8365 range top into play
Rejection at the 0.8348 session high while RSI is overbought points to a pullback toward the 0.8334 prior high
Failure to hold the 0.8327 swing low, near the 38.2% of the London leg fib, breaks the HH/HL chain
16:02 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows intact into NY · RSI 77 · price 0.83469
London broke Asian range high; HH/HL chain since 0.8325.
London open broke the Asian range high near 0.8310. Price has since stacked higher lows from the 0.8325 range low through the 0.8334 prior high and is pressing the 0.8348 session high, with RSI(14) near 77, stretched but normal for the trend. The bid tracks broad USD strength on Middle East tension and firmer oil, in thin US-holiday liquidity.
Support: 0.83401, 0.83339, 0.8325
Resistance: 0.83484, 0.8350, 0.8365
What it said to watch
0.8350 round number and the 0.8365 range top (UOB range ceiling) are areas to watch for rejection or break
An M15 close below the rising trendline and the 0.8340 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Loss of the 0.8334 prior high puts the 0.8325–0.8334 midday range back in play; the 38.2% fib of the Asian low to session high move sits near 0.8327
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift this read in thin holiday liquidity
HH/HL chain from London open; NY broke the London high.
London open cleared the Asian high near 0.8310 and built a steady HH/HL chain. During NY hours, price broke the 0.8334 London high and printed a new session high at 0.8346, on broad USD demand tied to Middle East tension and oil. RSI(14) near 76 is hot but typical of a trend, and the 0.8365 range top sits about 19 pips overhead.
Support: 0.8334, 0.83265, 0.8310
Resistance: 0.83459, 0.8365, 0.8380
What it said to watch
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC; thin US-holiday liquidity could exaggerate any reaction
Holding above the 0.8334 London high keeps the breakout read; a return below it flags a false break toward the 0.8327 London low
0.8365 range top and 0.8380 17m high: area to watch for rejection or break
A close below trend support off the 0.8302 low marks the first lower-low of the day
Failure back under the 0.8310 Asian high would erase the London-session advance
HH/HL chain from the pre-London low; NY broke the London high.
London broke the 0.8310 Asian high at the open and built a HH/HL chain from the 0.8302 pre-London low. The first hour of NY cleared the 0.8334 London high and printed a 0.8345 session high, with RSI(14) near 79 in holiday-thin trade. A firmer USD on Middle East-driven oil gains has the pair pressing toward the 0.8365 range top.
Support: 0.8334, 0.8327, 0.8310
Resistance: 0.8345, 0.8365, 0.8380
What it said to watch
Holding the 0.8334 London high on any retest keeps the breakout read intact; a slip below the 0.8327 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain
0.8365 range top and 0.8380 17-month high are the next references; a clean break would end the range thesis
Loss of rising support toward the 0.8310 Asian high would unwind most of the London-NY leg fib
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift USD tone, with US/Japan holiday liquidity amplifying moves
15:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended into late NY session · RSI 75 · price 0.83427
HH/HL chain since London open; midday range broken higher.
London open cleared the asian high at 0.8310 and price stepped higher. NY hours then broke the 0.83265–0.8334 midday range to a session high at 0.8345, with RSI(14) near 75. The leg came on firm USD as oil and Middle East tension lifted the dollar, in thin holiday liquidity.
Support: 0.8334, 0.83265, 0.8310
Resistance: 0.83451, 0.8365
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8334 midday high turns the NY breakout into a false break
Loss of the london trendline (~0.8341) and the 0.83265 midday low breaks the HL chain
Rejection at the 0.8345 session high vs extension toward 0.8365, the range top cited by UOB
Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift this read; US holiday liquidity is thin
14:46 UTC
Uptrend, steady HH/HL since London open · RSI 63 · price 0.83373
Asian range broken higher; stair-step higher highs, NY at fresh session high.
London broke the Asian high at 0.8310 on the open and has built higher lows since. The 0.8330 round number held through midday, and NY pushed to a 0.8339 session high on a haven USD bid tied to oil and Middle East headlines, in thin holiday trade. RSI(14) near 63 is not stretched, and the London trend line plus the London leg fib 23.6% sit near 0.8330.
Support: 0.8330, 0.83265, 0.83099
Resistance: 0.83388, 0.8365, 0.8380
What it said to watch
Close back below the 0.8327 swing low breaks the HL chain and the London trend line
Acceptance above the 0.8339 session high puts the 0.8365 range top in play, then the 0.8380 17m high
Loss of 0.8325 (London leg 38.2%) shifts focus to a retest of the Asian high at 0.8310
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and Middle East/oil headlines could shift this read in thin US-holiday liquidity
HH/HL chain since London broke the Asian range high.
London cleared the 0.8310 Asian high at the open. The leg has since ground up to a 0.83384 session high in thin US-holiday NY trade, with the 0.83265 higher low still intact. Oil-driven haven demand for USD on Middle East tensions is the driver. RSI(14) near 60 shows no stretch, and the 0.8365 range top sits about 29 pips overhead.
Support: 0.83265, 0.83099
Resistance: 0.83384, 0.8365, 0.8380
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.83265 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes the 0.8310 Asian high
A push through the 0.8365 range top opens a test of the 0.8380 17m high
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and Middle East/oil headlines could shift the read in holiday-thin liquidity
London breakout of Asian range, then tight consolidation on rising lows.
London open broke the Asian high at 0.8310 and ran about 25 pips as the USD took the haven bid on Middle East tensions and firmer oil. Since mid-London, price has coiled between the 0.8327 range low and the 0.8335 session high on a chain of rising lows. It is now pressing the top as thin US-holiday NY hours begin, with RSI(14) near 61 and ATR(14) about 3 pips.
Support: 0.83265, 0.83182, 0.83099
Resistance: 0.83346, 0.8365
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.8335 session high would resolve the coil higher and put the 0.8365 range top in view.
A break of the rising-lows trendline and the 0.8327 range low would open the fib 50% at 0.8318, then the 0.8310 Asian high.
Fed Hammack speaks at 16:50 UTC, and thin holiday liquidity can exaggerate the reaction.
London breakout from Asian range, now a tight 0.8327–0.8334 consolidation.
London open broke the Asian range high at 0.8310, and the pair extended to a 0.8334 london high as oil and Middle East headlines pulled haven flow into the USD. Since late London it has held a 7-pip box above the 0.8327 midday low, with RSI(14) cooled to the high 50s into a thin US-holiday NY session.
Support: 0.83265, 0.83176, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83339, 0.8350
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8327 midday low exposes the 0.8318 friday high, which sits on the 38.2% retracement of the rally
Close above the 0.8334 london high reopens the 0.8350 range top
Loss of 0.8318 puts the 0.8300 psych level and Asian range top back in play
Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC could jolt the thin holiday tape
13:31 UTC
Uptrend, pausing at session high · RSI 57 · price 0.83307
London breakout from Asian range, now a tight box under the high.
The London rally cleared the 0.8307 Asian range high and set a session high at 0.83339 as the oil bounce and Middle East tension pulled haven flows into USD. Since 11:00 UTC price has flattened into a 0.83265–0.8334 box, holding the 23.6% fib. NY is opening on US-holiday-thin liquidity with RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 0.83265, 0.8325, 0.83176
Resistance: 0.83339, 0.8350
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.83339 session high opens the 0.8350 round number, the lower edge of the 0.8350/0.8365 range-top zone.
Losing the 0.83265 range low and the 0.8325 swing low exposes the 38.2% fib near 0.8322 and Friday's prior high at 0.8317.
Holiday-thin NY hours: Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and oil/Middle East headlines could shift this read.
13:16 UTC
Uptrend since London open, now stalling · RSI 51 · price 0.83294
Asian high broken at London open; 0.8326–0.8334 consolidation below session high.
London open broke the Asian high near 0.8310. The London leg ran to a 0.8334 session high as oil-driven haven demand went to the USD rather than the CHF. Since late morning price has compressed between the 0.8326 pullback low and the session high, with RSI(14) back to neutral near 51 and the rising intraday line broken.
Support: 0.83265, 0.83165, 0.8310
Resistance: 0.83339, 0.8350
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8334 session high exposes the 0.8350 range top
Failure to hold the 0.8326 pullback low opens the 0.8316 london break level and the 38.2% retrace of the London leg near 0.8322
Loss of 0.8310 asian high would unwind the London breakout
US holiday leaves the NY session thin; Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and Middle East or Ukraine headlines could shift this read
London breakout of Asian range, now compressing 0.8325–0.8334 with lower highs.
London open broke the Asian high near 0.8310 and cleared Friday's high at 0.8319 as USD took the haven bid on Middle East escalation and higher oil. Since 09:45 UTC price has compressed between the 0.8325 range low and the 0.8334 session high. Highs are drifting lower into the London-NY transition, and liquidity is thin with US markets on holiday.
Support: 0.83265, 0.83189, 0.8310
Resistance: 0.83339, 0.8350, 0.8365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8334 session high reopens the 0.8350 psych level and the 0.8365 range top
Break of the 0.8325 range low exposes the friday high at 0.8319, near the 38.2% fib of the London leg
Failure back below the asian high at 0.8310 would undo the London breakout
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and oil/geopolitical headlines can move price in a thin holiday tape
London breakout above Asian range, now consolidating 0.8325–0.8334 below the session high.
London open broke the Asian high at 0.8310 as Middle East escalation and firmer oil sent haven flow into the USD. The move ran to a 0.8334 session high, and price has since compressed above the 0.8325 swing low. The 0.83265 pullback low has held twice near the 23.6% retrace of the London leg, and RSI(14) has cooled to about 52.
Support: 0.83265, 0.8325, 0.83099
Resistance: 0.83339, 0.8365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8325 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and opens the 38.2% retrace near 0.8322, then the Asian high at 0.8310
Close above the 0.8334 session high resumes the leg toward the 0.8365 range top
US holiday-thin NY session and Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could jolt the range
London breakout above Asian high, tight consolidation near the top.
London open broke the Asian high at 0.8310 and stair-stepped to a session high of 0.8334. Oil and Middle East haven flows favoured USD over CHF. Since 11:15 UTC price has compressed in a 0.8327–0.8334 band, with RSI(14) cooled to about 60 and the US holiday thinning NY liquidity.
Support: 0.83265, 0.83216, 0.83099
Resistance: 0.83339, 0.8350
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8326 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 38.2% fib near 0.8322
Close above the 0.8334 session high opens the 0.8350 range top
Loss of the 0.8310 Asian high negates the London breakout read
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift the read in thin holiday trade
12:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from highs · RSI 54 · price 0.83269
London broke above the Asian range, building higher highs and higher lows; the 0.8325 higher low is now under test.
London opened with a breakout above the 0.8310 asian high as the oil-driven haven bid lifted USD, running to a 0.8334 session high. Price is now sitting on the EMA20 and retesting the 0.8325 higher low into the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) cooled to 54. Liquidity is thin because of the US holiday, and the 0.8365 range top sits above.
Support: 0.8325, 0.8322, 0.8310
Resistance: 0.8334, 0.8365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8325 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes the fib 38.2 at 0.8322, then the 0.8310 asian high
Close above the 0.8334 session high resumes the London leg toward the 0.8365 range top
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and Middle East/oil headlines could shift this read in holiday-thin trade
HH/HL chain since London open; pullback testing intraday trend support.
London open broke the Asian high at 0.8310 and cleared Friday's prior high at 0.8319. That extended a HH/HL chain to a 0.8334 session high as Middle East escalation and firmer oil revived the USD haven bid. Price is now easing back onto the rising intraday trend line near 0.8330, with the 0.8325 swing low beneath, RSI(14) near 62 and liquidity thin on the US holiday.
Support: 0.8325, 0.83189, 0.83099
Resistance: 0.83339, 0.8345, 0.8365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8325 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain; the 0.8319 prior high and 0.8318 London-leg 50% fib sit below
M15 close above the 0.8334 session high opens the 0.8345 UOB band, then the 0.8365 range top
A drop back below the 0.8310 Asian high would mark the London breakout as a false break
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC; thin holiday liquidity can exaggerate moves around the remarks
Asian range break, HH/HL chain with a marginal higher high at 0.8334.
London broke the Asian high at 0.8310 at the open. The London leg then built a higher-high/higher-low chain to a 0.8334 session high as oil-driven haven demand lifted USD. The latest bar is probing the rising trendline near 0.8329 with RSI(14) around 63, and the new high cleared the 0.8333 peak by just over a pip, so momentum is easing.
Support: 0.8325, 0.8310, 0.8293
Resistance: 0.8334, 0.8365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8325 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and brings the 0.8310 Asian high and the London leg 50% retracement into play
Acceptance above the 0.8334 session high opens the path toward the 0.8365 range top
Loss of 0.8310 returns price to the Asian range, with the 0.8293 Asian low as the floor
US holiday thins NY trade; Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and oil/Middle East headlines could shift this read
HH/HL chain since London open; broke above Friday high, pressing session high.
USD took a haven bid on the oil and Middle East escalation. Price cleared the Asian range at the London open, then broke the Friday prior high at 0.8319 and printed a session high at 0.8334. Higher lows are stepping up along the London trendline to the 0.8325 swing low in thin, holiday-affected trade. RSI(14) at 68 is warm, not stretched.
Support: 0.8325, 0.8319, 0.8302
Resistance: 0.8334, 0.8345, 0.8365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8325 swing low and the London trendline breaks the higher-low chain
Failure to hold the 0.8319 prior high puts the breakout in question and exposes the 0.8302 london low
Acceptance above the 0.8334 session high opens the 0.8345 uob band, with the 0.8365 range top beyond
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC, plus oil and geopolitical headlines, could shift this read
Higher-high/higher-low chain since London open breakout of Asian range.
USD/CHF cleared the Asian high at 0.8310 on the 07:00 UTC London open bar, then held above the Friday high at 0.8319 as Middle East escalation lifted oil and the USD haven bid. Price is now pressing a fresh session high at 0.8333, with RSI(14) near 74 and the higher-low trendline from 0.8302 intact; the latest swing low is 0.8325.
Support: 0.8325, 0.8319, 0.8310
Resistance: 0.8333, 0.8345, 0.8365
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.8325 swing low and the higher-low trendline breaks the London HH/HL chain
Failure to hold the Friday high at 0.8319 puts the London leg fib 50–61.8% zone (0.8318–0.8314) and the Asian high at 0.8310 back in play
The 0.8345 band top (UOB intraday band), then the 0.8365 range top, are areas to watch for rejection or break above the session high
US holiday thins the NY session; Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and oil/geopolitical headlines could materially shift this read
London breakout above Asian range, higher low at 0.8325.
The London open broke the Asian high at 0.8310 and cleared Friday's high at 0.8319 as haven USD demand returned on Middle East escalation and higher oil. Price set a session high at 0.8333, and the pullback held a higher swing low at 0.8325 near the rally trendline. RSI(14) is near 69 and holiday-thin trade keeps ATR at about 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.8325, 0.83189, 0.83099
Resistance: 0.83326, 0.8345, 0.8365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8325 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain and the rally trendline
Loss of the Friday high at 0.8319 exposes the fib 50% near 0.8317 and the Asian high at 0.8310
Close above the 0.8333 session high opens the 0.8345 UOB band top, then the 0.8365 range top
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and oil/geopolitical headlines could shift this read
HH/HL chain since 06:45 UTC low; London broke the Asian range and Friday's high.
London open broke the Asian high at 0.8310 and cleared Friday's high at 0.8319. Oil-driven haven demand is favouring USD over CHF, and higher lows carried price to a 0.8333 session high. Price is now holding under that high with the 0.8325 pullback low intact and RSI(14) near 69, warm but not stretched.
Support: 0.8325, 0.83189, 0.83099
Resistance: 0.83326, 0.8345
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8325 pullback low breaks the rising trendline and exposes Friday high at 0.8319
Acceptance back under the Asian high at 0.8310 negates the London breakout
Clean break of the 0.8333 session high opens the path to the 0.8345 band top
US holiday thins NY liquidity; Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and oil/geopolitical headlines could shift this read
London broke above Asian range and Friday high; higher lows since 06:45 UTC, first pullback underway.
London open lifted USD/CHF out of the 0.8293–0.8310 Asian range and through Friday's 0.8319 high, as oil and Middle East escalation revived the haven USD bid in thin holiday trade. The session high printed at 0.8333 at 09:45 UTC with RSI(14) near 72, and price is now easing to 0.8327, above Friday high and the 38.2% fib of the pre-London low to session high leg near 0.8321.
Support: 0.83189, 0.83099, 0.83017
Resistance: 0.83326, 0.8365
What it said to watch
Holding the 0.8319 friday high keeps the breakout read intact; an M15 close back below the 0.8310 asian high would mark a false break
An M15 close above the 0.8333 session high opens the path toward the 0.8365 range top
Loss of the 0.8302 pre-London low erases the London leg
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and oil/geopolitical headlines in thin US-holiday trade could shift this read
10:17 UTC
Uptrend, first pullback off session high · RSI 72 · price 0.83273
London broke above Asian range and Friday high; HH/HL chain intact, rising line broken.
The London open cleared the Asian high at 0.8310 with an 11-pip bar. Price then stepped through the Friday high at 0.8319 to a session high of 0.8333, as the USD held firm into the CPI week. The 10:00 UTC bar printed a rejection there and slipped under the rising line from the London lows, with RSI(14) easing from the mid-70s on holiday-thin liquidity.
Support: 0.83208, 0.83189, 0.83099
Resistance: 0.83326, 0.8345
What it said to watch
Hold of the fib 38.2% near 0.8321 keeps the London higher-low sequence intact
Close back below the friday high at 0.8319 turns the breakout into a deeper retrace toward the asian high at 0.8310
Close above the 0.8333 session high reopens the 0.8345 range top
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC during NY hours could shift this read
10:02 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into London · RSI 80 · price 0.83317
HH/HL chain since London open, above Asian range.
London open broke the Asian high at 0.8310, then Friday's prior high at 0.8319, and stretched the London leg into a HH/HL chain capped by the 0.8333 session high, in line with the digest's soft-CHF, firm-USD tone in thin holiday trade. RSI(14) near 80 is stretched against a 4.6-pip ATR, with the 0.8327 swing low the nearest higher-low pivot.
Support: 0.83266, 0.83189, 0.83099
Resistance: 0.83326, 0.8345
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8327 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain
Loss of the 0.8319 prior high puts the 50% retrace of the London leg near 0.8317 in play, with the Asian high at 0.8310 below
Acceptance above the 0.8333 session high brings the 0.8345 range top into view
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift the read in thin US-holiday conditions
09:47 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into session high · RSI 81 · price 0.83288
London broke above Asian range and Friday high, higher-low chain intact.
London cleared the Asian high at 0.8310 on the open, then Friday's high at 0.8319, stepping up through a higher-low chain to a 0.8330 session high as USD firmed ahead of Wednesday's CPI. RSI(14) near 81 is stretched, with the 0.8323 higher low and the London trend line under the move. The London leg from 0.8302 has not yet retraced meaningfully.
Support: 0.83229, 0.83189, 0.83099
Resistance: 0.83302, 0.8345
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8323 higher low breaks the London higher-low chain and puts the London trend line in question
Failure to hold the Friday high at 0.8319 would turn the breakout into a false break back toward the Asian high at 0.8310
Acceptance above the 0.8330 session high opens the 0.8345 range top
US, Japan and Canada holidays thin liquidity; Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift this read
09:32 UTC
Uptrend, extended into 0.8330 · RSI 79 · price 0.83295
London open broke Asian range high; higher-low chain intact.
The Monday rally from the 0.8287 Asia low gathered pace at London open, clearing the 0.8310 Asian high and then the 0.8319 Friday high on a steady higher-low sequence along the London trendline, with dips held as US yields stabilised. Price is pressing the 0.8330 round number with RSI(14) near 79, stretched on thin holiday liquidity with Japan, the US and Canada off.
Support: 0.8319, 0.8310, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.8330, 0.8345
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 0.8319 friday high would turn the breakout into a false break
Break of the London trendline near 0.8325 ends the higher-low chain; 0.8310 asian high is the next shelf
Hold above the 0.8330 round number opens the 0.8345 range top
Loss of 0.8300 psych retraces most of the Monday rally
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and any Middle East haven headlines could shift this read
London broke above the Asian range and the Friday high; higher lows since the Monday-open sweep.
The Monday open swept below Friday's low to 0.8287 before recovering. The first London bar then cleared the 0.8310 Asian high and the 0.8319 Friday high, printing a 0.8325 session high, with DXY clawing back in Europe on pre-CPI caution. Progress has stalled into tight, sub-ATR bars with RSI(14) near 75. Holiday-thin liquidity with the US, Japan and Canada out.
Support: 0.8319, 0.8310, 0.83017
Resistance: 0.83251, 0.8330, 0.8345
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8319 Friday high turns the breakout into a false break and exposes the 0.8310 Asian high, also the 38.2% fib of the Monday rally
M15 close above the 0.8325 session high puts the 0.8330 round number and the 0.8345 range top in view
A break of the rising support from the Asia lows, and of the 0.8302 London low, would undo the London leg
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and any US yield or Middle East headlines could materially shift this read in thin holiday trade
09:03 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 78 · price 0.83225
London broke the Asian range and Friday high; HL at 0.8311, tight hold under 0.8324.
The London open lifted USDCHF out of the 0.8287–0.8310 Asian range and through Friday's high at 0.8319, and the 07:30 UTC pullback held at 0.8311, just above the Asian high. Mid-London, price is compressing under the 0.8324 session high with RSI(14) near 78, in thin US/Japan/Canada holiday trade and in line with the digest's soft-CHF read on the SNB's 0% stance.
Support: 0.83189, 0.83099, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83241, 0.8345
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the friday high at 0.8319 would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the asian high at 0.8310 and the rising trendline exposes the 0.8300 round number
Acceptance above the 0.8324 session high opens the path toward the 0.8345 range top
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC, in a thin US-holiday NY session, could materially shift this read
08:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extended after London open push · RSI 71 · price 0.83228
Higher highs and higher lows since the Asia low; Asian range and Friday high both cleared.
The London open bar broke the Asian high at 0.8310, and price then cleared Friday's prior high at 0.8319 to a session high of 0.8324 on franc softness in thin holiday liquidity. RSI(14) sits near 71 as price stalls just under that high; the 0.8316 swing low lines up with the 38.2% fib of the London leg.
Support: 0.83189, 0.83158, 0.83099
Resistance: 0.83241, 0.8330
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8319 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the 0.8316 swing low exposes the Asian high at 0.8310 and the rising lows line
Close above the 0.8324 session high opens the 0.8330 round number
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC during NY hours could shift the read via US yields
08:31 UTC
Uptrend, extending into London · RSI 73 · price 0.83226
Higher lows since Asia; London open broke above the Asian range high and Friday's high.
The London open leg broke above the Asian high at 0.8310 and Friday's prior high at 0.8319, setting a session high at 0.8324 with RSI(14) near 73. Rising lows from the 0.8293 Asia dip remain intact, and CHF stays soft on SNB-Fed divergence in thin US-holiday trade.
Support: 0.8319, 0.8310, 0.8302
Resistance: 0.83241, 0.8330
What it said to watch
Holding above the 0.8319 prior high keeps the breakout read intact; a close back below the 0.8310 Asian high would mark a false break
A push through the 0.8324 session high brings the 0.8330 round number into view
A break of the 0.8302 London low and the rising lows line negates the London leg
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and Iran/Middle East headlines could trigger a haven CHF bid and shift this read
08:16 UTC
Uptrend, extended into London · RSI 73 · price 0.83227
Higher lows since 0.8293; Asian high and Friday high cleared.
The London open broke the Asian high at 0.8310 and cleared Friday's high at 0.8319. That printed a session high at 0.8323 with RSI(14) near 73, extending the higher lows from 0.8293 on holiday-thin US trade.
Support: 0.83189, 0.83099, 0.83017
Resistance: 0.83232, 0.8345
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8319 Friday high would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8310 Asian high puts the 0.8302 swing low and the higher lows trendline in play
Acceptance above the 0.8323 session high opens the path toward the 0.8345 range top
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC; thin US/Japan/Canada holiday liquidity can exaggerate moves
08:02 UTC
Uptrend, testing prior high · RSI 70 · price 0.83164
Higher lows since Asia; London open broke the Asian range high.
London open lifted the pair through the Asian high at 0.8310 in a single 10-pip bar. It then retested that level and pushed back to 0.8318, just under Friday's prior high at 0.8319, with RSI(14) near 70. The bounce from the 0.8293 Asian low tracks the softer-CHF, short-funding theme, though thin US-holiday liquidity limits follow-through.
Support: 0.8310, 0.83017, 0.82926
Resistance: 0.83189
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8319 prior high extends the higher-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.8310 Asian high turns the London breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.8302 swing low breaks rising support and the intraday higher-low sequence
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift yields and this read; US CPI Wed is the larger pivot
07:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extended into prior high · RSI 73 · price 0.8318
Higher lows from Asian low, London breakout above Asian high.
The London open pushed USDCHF through the Asian high at 0.8310 and up to Friday's prior high near 0.8319. That completes an Asia-London leg of higher lows off the 0.8293 Asian low, with RSI(14) near 73. Holiday-thinned liquidity, with the US, Canada and Japan out, and softer US yields per the digest leave this test of the prior high on thin footing.
Support: 0.8310, 0.8302, 0.8293
Resistance: 0.8319
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8319 prior high clears Friday's range top; stalling there marks a rejection
Retest failing at the 0.8310 asian high reopens the 0.8302 pre-ldn low
Break below the 0.8293 asian low negates the higher lows sequence
Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC during NY hours could shift this read
Higher-low chain from Asian low; Asian range high broken at London open.
London open cleared the Asian high at 0.83099 with a 10-pip bar to a 0.83173 session high, extending the higher-low chain from the 0.82872 Asian low. RSI(14) is near 68, and price is pausing just under Friday's high at 0.83189 on a holiday-thinned Monday with US yields softer.
Support: 0.83099, 0.83017, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.83173, 0.83189
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.83099 Asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.83017 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline; the 38.2% fib at 0.83058 sits above it
M15 close above the 0.83189 Friday high clears the last intraday cap
Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC; thin US-holiday liquidity can exaggerate moves
Higher lows since Asia, Asian range high broken at London open.
The London open bar broke the Asian high at 0.8310 in a single 10-pip candle, putting price at 0.8317, just under Friday's high at 0.8319. RSI(14) at 76 is short-term hot. Higher lows from 0.8293 stay intact in holiday-thin trade, though easing US yields have limited dollar follow-through.
Support: 0.83099, 0.83017, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83189
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the asian high 0.8310 turns the breakout into a false break
Clearance of the friday high 0.8319 extends the higher-low chain into fresh session highs
Loss of the 0.8302 swing low and 0.8300 psych level breaks the higher-low trendline
Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC and Middle East headlines could jolt price in thin holiday liquidity
07:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since Asia · RSI 61 · price 0.83062
Higher-low chain off Asia low, pullback held 50% retrace.
USD/CHF has recovered from the Sunday gap low at 0.8287 and the Asia low at 0.8293, printing a session high at 0.8310 before London. That fits the short-CHF rebound noted in the digest. The pullback into London open found a higher low at 0.8302, near the 50% fib of the Asia rally, and the rising trendline is intact.
Support: 0.8302, 0.82926, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.83099, 0.83189
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8310 session high opens the Friday high at 0.8319
Loss of the 0.8302 higher low and the rising trendline turns focus back to the 0.8293 Asia low
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and Middle East headlines could shift the haven/yield read
Higher lows through Asia, retest of the 0.8300 breakout shelf.
USDCHF rebounded through the Asia session from the 0.8287 asia low, with short-CHF positioning outweighing softer US yields. The rebound printed a higher low at 0.8293 and broke the 0.8300 shelf to a 0.8310 asia high. Price is now retesting the 0.8302 pullback low near the 38.2% of the asia leg fib into London open, with RSI(14) neutral at 56 and ATR(14) at 2.6 pips.
Support: 0.8302, 0.82926, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.83099, 0.83189
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8302 pullback low and 0.8300 turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.8293 higher low and asia rising lows trendline breaks the intraday HL chain
M15 close above the 0.8310 asia high opens the path to the 0.8319 friday high
London open is likely to set direction out of the Asian range
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC is the next scheduled USD risk
06:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Asia lows, pulling back · RSI 57 · price 0.83032
Higher lows since gap low; 38% retrace of Asia rally.
Asia session climbed from the 0.8293 swing low to an Asian high at 0.8310 as USD/CHF rebounded on short-CHF positioning. Price has since slipped about 38% of that leg to 0.8303 ahead of London open. Higher lows are holding above the rising Asia trendline from the 0.8287 gap low, which sits near the 0.8300 round number, and ATR(14) is compressed at about 2.5 pips.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82926, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.83099, 0.83189
What it said to watch
Loss of the 0.8300 round number, the Asia trendline and the 61.8% fib near 0.8299 turns the Asia rally into a range
London close above the 0.8310 asian high opens the friday high at 0.8319
Break below the 0.8293 swing low exposes the 0.8287 asian low and ends the higher-low chain
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and US yield direction could shift this read
06:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing below Asian high · RSI 68 · price 0.83067
Higher lows through Asia, cleared 0.8300 and holding just under 0.8310.
Monday opened below Friday's close and dipped to the 0.8287 asian low. Price then built higher lows along a rising trendline, cleared the 0.8300 round number and printed a 0.8310 asian high, in line with the short-CHF rebound and softer-yield backdrop in the digest. Late Asia has seen a shallow pause at 0.8304–0.8310 ahead of London open, RSI(14) near 68, with the 38.2% of the Asia swing fib at 0.8303.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.83099, 0.83189
What it said to watch
A London open close above the 0.8310 asian high opens the path to the 0.8319 friday high
Loss of the rising trendline and the 0.8300 round number returns price to the mid-Asian range, with the 0.8287 asian low below
US yield moves and Middle East headlines can shift the CHF haven bid; Fed's Hammack speaks later today
06:03 UTC
Intraday rebound, pausing below Asian high · RSI 57 · price 0.83046
Higher low at 0.8293 then push to 0.8310 Asian high; shallow pullback in progress.
The weekend gap down to the 0.8287 asian low filled quickly. A higher swing low at 0.8293 then fed a grind to the 0.8310 asian high late in the Asia session, helped by short-CHF positioning. Price is now easing back toward the 38.2% of the asian leg fib near 0.8303, with the 0.8300 psych level just below, ahead of London open.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82926, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.83099, 0.83189
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8310 asian high at London open opens the path to the 0.8319 friday high
Failure to hold 0.8300 psych and the asian leg fib 61.8% at 0.8299 shifts focus back to the 0.8293 swing low
A break of the asian trendline and the 0.8287 asian low would end the higher-low read
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and US yield moves could reshape the intraday range
05:31 UTC
Short-term uptrend, RSI hot · RSI 78 · price 0.83088
Late-Asia break above the Asian high, higher lows since 0.8293.
After the weekend-open dip to 0.8287 reversed, USDCHF held a tight 0.8293–0.8300 band for most of the Asia session. It then built rising lows and broke the 0.8307 Asian high, printing a session high at 0.8310 with RSI(14) near 78. The 0.8300 round number, flagged as range support in the CHF digest, held despite softer US yields.
Support: 0.83072, 0.8300, 0.82926
Resistance: 0.83099, 0.83189
What it said to watch
Holding above the 0.8307 Asian high into London open keeps the range break intact; a return below it reads as a false break
An M15 close back under the 0.8300 round number returns price to the Asian range, with the 0.8293 swing low below
A clean push through the 0.8310 session high opens Friday's prior high at 0.8319
A break of the rising lows trendline would end the higher-low sequence
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and US yield moves could shift the read later in the day
05:17 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since Asia low · RSI 65 · price 0.83068
Asian range 0.8293–0.8307, price testing range top.
Monday Asia session has climbed from the 0.8293 asian low in a higher-low sequence along a rising trendline and is now pressing the 0.8307 asian high, despite the yield-led softer dollar tone. ATR near 2.3 pips reflects thin Asian hours, with London open roughly two hours out.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82926
Resistance: 0.83072, 0.83148, 0.83189
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8307 asian high breaks the Asian range and exposes the 0.8315 fri swing and 0.8319 friday high
Rejection at the asian high and a loss of the 0.8300 round number plus the rising trendline returns the 0.8293 asian low to focus
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and further US yield moves could shift this read
Asia range above weekend gap low, rising lows since 0.82926.
Asia session opened on a weekend gap lower. The thin-liquidity dip to the 0.82872 Asian low recovered to the 0.83072 Asian high, and a rising-lows grind from the 0.82926 higher low has since lifted price back above the 0.8300 round number. Easing US yields have kept USD soft, pinning the pair near 0.8300 with ATR around 2.3 pips and no break of the Asian range yet.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82926, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.83072, 0.83189
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.83072 Asian high opens the path to the 0.83189 Friday high
Break below the 0.82926 higher low ends the rising-lows read and exposes the 0.82872 Asian low
London open in ~2h is the first real test of the Asian range at this ATR
US yield moves remain the driver; Fed's Hammack (16:50 UTC) and Wednesday CPI could shift this read later
04:32 UTC
Flat, slow grind higher off the Asian low · RSI 63 · price 0.83009
Inside Asian range 0.8287–0.8307, higher lows since the 0.8293 swing low.
The Asia session opened with a small gap below the 0.8302 friday close and spiked to the 0.8287 asian low in thin trade. Price then rejected at the 0.8307 asian high. It has since put in higher lows from the 0.8293 swing low and is sitting on the 0.8300 psych level, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the Asian high-to-swing-low drop. Easing US yields keep the pair pinned near 0.8300, and bar ranges are compressed at about 2–3 pips ahead of London open in roughly 2.5h.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82926, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.83018, 0.83072, 0.83189
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8302 friday close opens the 0.8307 asian high
Failure to hold 0.8300 psych exposes the 0.8293 swing low
A break of the 0.8287 asian low invalidates the range read
A London push through the asian high brings the 0.8319 friday high into view
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and US yield moves could materially shift this read
Asia-session consolidation under 0.8300 psych after a faded open spike.
Week opened on a gap lower to the 0.8287 open low as US yields eased. The spike to the 0.8307 Asian high faded to a 0.8293 swing low, and price has since ground back to 0.8300 off a 0.8298 higher low, stalling at the 0.8301 minor high just under the 61.8% retrace of that fade. Ranges have compressed to about 2 pips a bar into the London open.
Support: 0.82975, 0.82926, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.83009, 0.83072, 0.83189
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8301 minor high and 61.8% fade retrace near 0.8302 opens the 0.8307 Asian high; above that, the 0.8319 Friday high
Loss of the 0.8298 higher low puts the 0.8293 swing low back in play; a break there exposes the 0.8287 open low and the lower edge of the 0.8290–0.8300 support zone
London open is likely to expand the compressed Asian range
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and any further US yield slide could shift this read
Asian range 0.8287–0.8307, price mid-range at 0.8300.
Late Asia session. Price is inside a 0.8287–0.8307 Asian range. The fade to the 0.8293 session low retraced about 70% of the Sunday-low-to-Asian-high leg, and price has since drifted back to 0.8300 with RSI near 57. Easing US yields keep USD heavy, and the recent cap at 0.8301 sits directly overhead.
Support: 0.82926, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.83009, 0.83072, 0.83189
What it said to watch
London open break of the 0.8307 asian high or the 0.8287 sunday low sets the session direction
Failure to hold the 0.8293 session low reopens the 0.8287 sunday low
Acceptance above the 0.8301 recent cap shifts focus to the asian high, then the 0.8319 friday high
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and US yield swings ahead of Wednesday's CPI could materially shift this read
03:47 UTC
Sideways after the Monday gap, small higher lows · RSI 56 · price 0.82997
Asian range 0.8287–0.8307, higher lows pressing 0.8300.
Monday opened below Friday's 0.8302 close and swept to a 0.8287 session low before rebounding to a 0.8307 session high, as CHF stays modestly firmer on easing US yields. The Asian session has since held higher lows near 0.8293 and is back at 0.8300 psych, roughly a 50% retrace of the session fade, with ATR near 3 pips.
Support: 0.8293, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.83072, 0.83189
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8307 session high breaks the Asian range and puts the 0.8319 friday high in view
Loss of the 0.8293 higher lows reopens the 0.8287 session low
Repeated failure at 0.8300 psych keeps price capped inside the Asian range
London open in about 3h is the first real liquidity test of the Asian range
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC and Fed Hammack 16:50 UTC today are the next scheduled USD drivers
03:32 UTC
Sideways, short-term recovery off Asian lows · RSI 58 · price 0.83003
Higher lows off 0.82926 inside the 0.82872–0.83072 Asian range.
Late Asia session: the opening dip to the 0.82872 session low reversed to a 0.83072 session high. Price then slid to a 0.82926 swing low and has built a higher low at 0.82980 back to the 0.8300 handle, sitting between the 50% and 61.8% fib of that decline and right on EMA50. The tape is still digesting Friday's NY fade from the 0.83189 friday high as US yields eased and CHF firmed.
Support: 0.8298, 0.82926, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.83016, 0.83072, 0.83189
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.83016 61.8% fib brings the 0.83072 session high back into play, with the 0.83189 friday high above
Failure to hold the 0.82980 higher low exposes the 0.82926 swing low and the 0.82872 session low
London open in ~3.5h is the likely test of the Asian range; Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift USD tone
Inside Asian range 0.8287–0.8307, higher lows off 0.8293 base.
Late in the Asia session, price has climbed on higher lows from the 0.8293 base back to the 0.8300 round number. That level is also the 50% retracement of the drop from the 0.8307 Asian high, and price remains inside the Asian range bounded by the 0.8287 Asian low. Easing US yields keep the dollar soft into London, and RSI(14) sits neutral near 53.
Support: 0.8293, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.83072, 0.83189
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8307 asian high breaks the Asian range and puts the 0.8319 friday high back in view
Rejection at the 0.8300 round number and a loss of the 0.8293 base exposes the 0.8287 asian low
London open liquidity could resolve the Asian range in either direction
Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift the USD read later in the day
02:47 UTC
Flat after gap-fill rally faded, inside a tight range · RSI 47 · price 0.82981
Asia range 0.8293–0.8300 below the 0.8307 Asian high.
Monday's Asia session opened with a gap below Friday's 0.8302 close. Price made a false break of Friday's 0.8296 low to the 0.8287 open low, then a gap-fill rally capped at the 0.8307 Asian high. It has since compressed into a 0.8293–0.8300 range at the 61.8% fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and ATR under 3 pips in thin tape as eased US yields keep the pair pinned at 0.8300.
Support: 0.8293, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.83018, 0.83072
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8300 round number and fri close at 0.8302 breaks the range top and reopens the 0.8307 asian high
Failure to hold the 0.8293 range low, below the 61.8% fib, exposes the 0.8287 open low
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and any renewed move in US yields could shift this read ahead of Wednesday's CPI
Monday's Asia session gapped below Friday's 0.8302 close and dipped to a 0.8287 session low. Price recovered to a 0.8307 session high, then faded back under the 0.8300 psych level as the CHF digest's easing-yields theme kept the dollar soft. Price is now compressing near the 61.8% retracement of that recovery, with lower highs capping it above the 0.8293 swing low. ATR is about 3 pips in thin Asian trade.
Support: 0.8293, 0.8287
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8307
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.8300 psych level breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 0.8307 session high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.8293 swing low exposes the 0.8287 session low
London open in about 4.5h is likely to expand the Asian range; Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC is the next scheduled USD risk
02:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 44 · price 0.82958
Lower highs since the post-open spike to 0.8307; holding a tight 0.8293–0.8300 Asian range.
Monday opened with a small gap below Friday's 0.8302 close. A thin-liquidity dip to the 0.8287 sunday low reversed to the 0.8307 open spike, but Asia has since printed lower highs under a falling lower-high line and slipped below Friday's 0.8296 low, in line with the CHF-firmer, easing-yields digest. Price is compressing between the 0.8293 asian low and the 0.8300 psych level, near the 61.8% of the open-rally fib, with RSI(14) ~44 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.82926, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.83072
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8300 psych and the lower-high line negates the Asia fade and puts the 0.8307 open spike back in play
Failure to hold the 0.8293 asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8287 sunday low
London open in ~5h is the first liquid test of the Asian range
Fed's Hammack 16:50 UTC today could shift USD tone ahead of Wednesday's US CPI
Asia session opened below Friday's 0.8302 close, swept to the 0.82872 open low, then bounced to a 0.83072 session high before fading back under 0.8300 as CHF stays firmer on easing US yields. Price is retesting the 61.8% fib of that bounce near 0.8295, with a lower high at 0.82995 capping and the 0.82926 session low just below. Friday high at 0.83189 marks the NY-hours top that set off the slide.
Support: 0.82926, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.82995, 0.83072, 0.83189
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.82995 lower high and 0.8300 psych breaks the lower-high sequence
Break of the 0.82926 session low exposes the 0.82872 open low
London open typically expands the thin Asian range; ATR near 3 pips understates likely moves
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and Wednesday's US CPI are the next USD catalysts
Compressed Asian range 0.8293–0.8307 below 0.8300.
Monday's Asia session opened with a small gap below Friday's 0.8302 close and wicked to an open low at 0.8287 in thin trade. It then rallied to a 0.8307 session high and faded to an asia low of 0.8293, roughly a 73% retrace of that swing. Price is now pinned just under 0.8300 psych with EMA20 flat, RSI(14) near 45 and ATR(14) around 3 pips, consistent with the digest's read of USD/CHF testing 0.8300 as US yields ease; no setup in play.
Support: 0.8293, 0.8287
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8307, 0.8319
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.8307 session high breaks the Asian range and puts the 0.8319 friday high in view
Failure to hold the 0.8293 asia low exposes the 0.8287 open low and the 78.6% level of the asia swing fib
Repeated rejection under 0.8300 psych keeps the range capped below EMA50
London open in ~5h typically expands the current ~3-pip ATR range
01:32 UTC
Mild downtrend, Asia drifting · RSI 43 · price 0.82971
Lower highs from Friday high; basing above 0.8293 swing low.
Monday's Asia session opened with a gap below Friday's 0.8302 close and dipped to the 0.8287 monday low. Price bounced to the 0.8307 monday high, then slipped back under the 0.8300 psych level as easing US yields kept the dollar soft. It is now holding the 0.8293 swing low near the 50% fib of that bounce, with lower highs from the 0.8319 friday high capping.
Support: 0.82926, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.83072, 0.83189
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8293 swing low exposes the 0.8287 monday low and opens a lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 0.8300 psych and a close above the 0.8307 monday high breaks the lower highs
London open in ~5h typically expands the Asian range; ATR is only ~3 pips now
Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC are the next scheduled USD risks
01:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Friday NY · RSI 38 · price 0.82943
Lower highs; Monday bounce rejected at 0.8307.
Monday's Asia session gapped below Friday's 0.8302 close and dipped to an open low at 0.8287, then bounced to a 0.8307 session high before rejection. Price is back under the friday low at 0.8296, sitting near the 61.8% of the open swing below both EMAs. The lower-high sequence from Friday's 0.8319 NY high is intact as easing US yields keep the dollar soft against CHF.
Support: 0.82926, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.82957, 0.8300, 0.83072
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8293 session low exposes the 0.8287 open low
Reclaim of the friday low and 0.8300 psych level would neutralise the lower-high read
Break above the 0.8307 session high clears the lower-highs trendline
Thin Asia liquidity and IMF-week headlines on yields could distort early moves
Lower high at 0.8307 after open sweep; pressing session low below 0.8300.
Thin Asia session open gapped lower and swept Friday's 0.8296 low to an open low at 0.8287. The bounce stalled at an open high of 0.8307, a lower high under the 0.8319 Friday high, with CHF firmer as US yields ease. Price has since slipped back below the 0.8300 round number to a session low at 0.8294, near the 61.8% of the open bounce fib.
Support: 0.82936, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.83072, 0.83189
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8294 session low exposes the 0.8287 open low
M15 close back above the 0.8300 round number eases the downside read
Break of the 0.8307 open high would break the lower-high trendline from the 0.8319 Friday high
Fed's Hammack later Monday, then US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
00:32 UTC
Intraday lower highs off Monday high · RSI 47 · price 0.82952
Opening gap and sweep to 0.8287, rebound capped at 0.8307, now fading back toward lows.
Monday opened with a small gap below the 0.83018 friday close. Price swept down to the 0.82872 week low, then rebounded to the 0.83072 monday high, where it stalled. Early Asia session has since printed lower highs back to the 61.8% of that rebound near 0.8295, below the 0.83000 psych, as easing US yields keep the franc supported.
Support: 0.82936, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.83018, 0.83072
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.82936 swing low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 0.82872 week low
M15 close back above 0.83000 psych and the 0.83018 friday close fills the gap and neutralises the fade
Break above the 0.83072 monday high flips intraday structure back to higher highs
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC Monday is the first scheduled USD catalyst; US CPI Wed is the larger swing risk
00:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Friday NY · RSI 42 · price 0.82945
Asian range 0.8287–0.8307, price faded to lower half below Friday low.
Monday's Asia session opened with a gap below Friday's close and a dip to the 0.8287 asian low. That move was bought to a 0.8307 asian high, but the bounce has since faded to 0.8294, back under the 0.8296 friday low and near the 61.8% retrace of the Asian swing, extending Friday's slide as easing US yields lifted CHF.
Support: 0.82872
Resistance: 0.82957, 0.8300, 0.83072
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8287 asian low confirms a lower-low and breaks the 0.8290–0.8300 support area
Reclaim of the 0.8296 friday low and the 0.8300 round number would neutralise the Asian fade
A move back through the 0.8307 asian high would flip the Asian range to a higher-high read
Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC and US yield direction into Wed CPI could shift this read
00:02 UTC
Intraday down, lower highs since Friday NY · RSI 47 · price 0.82988
Asia rebound fading under 0.8300 psych after a gap and false break.
Early Asia opened with a gap below Friday's close. Price ran under the friday low at 0.82957 to an asian low of 0.82872, which proved a false break, then rebounded to the 0.83072 asian high before slipping back under the 0.8300 psych level, near the 50% of the asian swing fib. The NY slide from the 0.83189 friday high came as US yields eased, and that leg has left a lower-highs sequence; RSI(14) is neutral near 47.
Support: 0.82957, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.83072, 0.83189
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.82957 friday low reopens the 0.82872 asian low
Recovery above the 0.83072 asian high breaks the lower-highs trendline from 0.83189
Holding under 0.8300 psych keeps the asian swing fib retracement extending toward its 61.8%
Thin early-Asia liquidity; Fed's Hammack later Monday and Wednesday's US CPI are the next scheduled USD risks