Higher highs and higher lows since mid-August; tight consolidation under 0.8382.
USDCHF has built a higher-high, higher-low chain since the 17 August low at 0.7950, holding above a rising EMA(50) and a rising trendline off that low, as Fed–SNB divergence kept CHF as a funding currency. The 1 October push to the 0.8382 cycle high was rejected, and the pullback found demand at the 0.8227 swing low, just above the 38.2% retracement of the Aug–Oct rally. Since then the pair has compressed into a 0.8287 range low to 0.8349 range top band for eight sessions, with the USD rally paused ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.8287, 0.8227, 0.8166
Resistance: 0.8349, 0.8382
What it said to watch
Daily close above the 0.8349 range top puts the 0.8382 cycle high back in play; acceptance above it extends the uptrend
Daily close below the 0.8287 range low would also breach the rising trendline near 0.8298
Failure to hold the 0.8227 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 50% fib at 0.8166
US CPI Wed 14 Oct 12:30 UTC, core m/m vs 0.2% forecast, could resolve the range in either direction
11:23 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below September high · RSI 60 · price 0.83241
Higher highs and higher lows since the 20 Aug low; tight range under 0.8382.
USDCHF has built a seven-week higher-high, higher-low chain from the 20 Aug low near 0.7950, with price holding above a rising EMA(50) as Fed-SNB divergence keeps CHF in its funding role. The 30 Sep rejection at the 0.8382 sept high was absorbed at the 0.8227 swing low, just above the 38.2% retracement of the rally. The pair has since compressed between roughly 0.8287 and the 0.8349 range top for eight sessions, with the round number at 0.8300 and the rally trendline converging beneath price.
Support: 0.8300, 0.8227, 0.8183
Resistance: 0.8349, 0.8382
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 14 Oct, where core is the swing factor, could materially shift this read in either direction
Daily close above the 0.8349 range top puts the 0.8382 sept high back in play; a close beyond that extends the higher-high chain
Daily close below the 0.8300 round number and the rally trendline exposes the 0.8227 swing low
Failure to hold the 0.8227 swing low would break the higher-low sequence and open the 0.8183 mid-sep low near EMA(50)