Lower highs from week high, compressing 0.8313–0.8334.
Monday's London-into-NY rally ran from the 0.8293 monday low to a 0.8349 week high, then faded through Tuesday as USD eased after Williams signalled only one more hike. The NY-open dip to the 0.8313 tuesday low, near the 61.8% retracement of that rally, drew demand. Price now sits on the ema cluster at 0.8327 with RSI(14) near 48, while the tuesday cap at 0.8334 and a lower-highs line from the week high have contained every bounce.
Support: 0.8327, 0.8313, 0.8293
Resistance: 0.8334, 0.8349, 0.8380
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read; Bowman and the Beige Book follow
H1 close above the 0.8334 tuesday cap and lower-highs line reopens the 0.8349 week high, with the 0.8380 17m high beyond
Failure to hold the 0.8313 tuesday low exposes the 0.8293 monday low and the 0.8297 weekly open
Hourly closes either side of the 0.8327 ema cluster set the near-term tone inside the range
Lower highs since Tuesday Asia, compressing above 61.8% fib.
Monday's rally ran from the 0.8287 week low to the 0.8349 week high, with the move building through London and extending into NY. The pair then faded from there on Tuesday as USD eased on lower crude and Williams' 'one more hike' framing. The NY dip to the 0.8313 Tuesday low held just above the 61.8% retracement of the Monday rally. Price now sits under the ema20 with RSI(14) near 45, compressed between that low and the 0.8334 range top under a line of lower highs.
Support: 0.8313, 0.8300, 0.8287
Resistance: 0.8328, 0.8334, 0.8349
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8334 range top and the lower-highs line reopens the 0.8349 week high
Failure to hold the 0.8313 Tuesday low and the 61.8% fib exposes the 0.8300 week open, then the 0.8287 week low
Repeated rejection at the ema20 near 0.8328 keeps the lower-highs structure intact
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.8349, compressing 0.8323–0.8334.
Monday's London and NY sessions drove a 56-pip rally from 0.8293 to the 0.8349 week high. Tuesday gapped lower and sold off as USD softened after Williams' 'one more hike' remarks. The dip into the NY open reached the Tuesday low at 0.8313, held the 61.8% retracement of the Monday rally and was bought back, leaving price compressed between 0.8323 and the 0.8334 Tuesday cap, just under a flat EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 0.83131, 0.82974
Resistance: 0.83285, 0.83344, 0.83486
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) is likely to set direction out of the current compression
H1 close below the Tuesday low at 0.8313 breaks the 61.8% hold of the Monday rally and exposes the weekly open at 0.8297
H1 close above the Tuesday cap and lower highs line near 0.8334 reopens the 0.8349 week high
Sustained trade back above ema20 at 0.8329 would neutralise the lower-highs read
Lower highs off the 0.8349 week high, with a higher low at 0.8313 versus Monday's 0.8293 base.
Monday's London and NY sessions drove a roughly 55-pip leg from near the 0.8297 weekly open to the 0.8349 week high, and Tuesday has spent the day retracing it inside a 0.8313–0.8334 band. The NY-session dip to the 0.8313 tue low tagged the 61.8% retracement after Williams' 'one more hike' remarks and was bought straight back. Price now sits on the 38.2% level, just under EMA(20) and above EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 46 and the range top capping each bounce since London open.
Support: 0.8313, 0.8297
Resistance: 0.8334, 0.8349
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core 0.2% m/m f/c) is the likely catalyst to break the 0.8313–0.8334 range
H1 close above the 0.8334 range top and the lower-highs line reopens the 0.8349 week high
Loss of the 0.8313 tue low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.8297 weekly open
Bowman remarks and the Beige Book on Wed could move December hike odds ahead of or after CPI
Lower highs since Tuesday open; higher low held above weekly low.
Monday's rally from the 0.8287 weekly low to the 0.8349 week high ran through London and NY on a haven USD bid tied to Middle East escalation. Tuesday has retraced as Treasury yields and oil eased, printing lower highs down to a 0.8313 Tuesday low between the 50% and 61.8% of the Monday rally fib, where a sharp NY-open rejection kept the higher low intact. Price now sits just under EMA(20) near 0.8329 with RSI(14) around 44, compressing ahead of Wednesday's US CPI.
Support: 0.8313, 0.8300, 0.8287
Resistance: 0.8329, 0.8334, 0.8349
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 0.8334 lower high and EMA(20) breaks the Tuesday lower-highs line and reopens the 0.8349 week high.
Failure to hold the 0.8313 Tuesday low breaks the higher low and exposes the 0.8300 round number, then the 0.8287 weekly low.
US CPI on Wed 14 Oct at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read. Fed's Bowman speaks at 09:40 UTC first.
18:02 UTC
Range, mid-week pullback held · RSI 47 · price 0.83297
Higher low at 0.8313 under twin highs 0.8347/0.8349.
Monday's London and NY sessions drove a 56-pip leg from the 0.8293 Asia low to the 0.8349 week high, as haven USD demand on Middle East headlines outweighed CHF. That leg stalled just above Thursday's 0.8347 peak, and Tuesday's fade through Asia and London found demand at 0.8313. The tuesday low sits at the 61.8% retracement of the leg and drew a sharp rebound in the first hour of NY as yields eased. Price is now pinned on EMA(20) near 0.8329 with RSI(14) at 47, capped by the 0.8334 tuesday cap and still above the higher-low trendline.
Support: 0.8313, 0.8300, 0.8287
Resistance: 0.8334, 0.8349
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.8349 week high breaks the twin cap from Thursday and Monday
Failure to hold the 0.8313 tuesday low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 0.8300 round number
A move below 0.8300 brings the 0.8287 weekly low, the week's last swing support, into play
17:02 UTC
Range-bound, recovering from pullback · RSI 52 · price 0.83333
Monday impulse to 0.8349, Tuesday 61.8% retrace and recovery.
Monday's 56-pip impulse off 0.8293 ran from the London open into NY and topped at the week high of 0.8349. Tuesday gave most of it back as Treasury yields eased, but the NY-open probe to the tuesday low at 0.8313 tagged the 61.8% retracement and was rejected, with the bar closing back near 0.8331. Price is now pressing the london cap at 0.8334 that held through Tuesday's session, with RSI(14) back to neutral at about 52 and price only marginally above a flattening EMA(20).
Support: 0.8313, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.8334, 0.8349
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8334 london cap reopens the week high at 0.8349 and the 0.8350 psych area
Failure back through the tuesday low at 0.8313 voids the 61.8% retest and exposes the 0.8300 round number
US core CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.2% m/m): a beat or miss could break the 0.8295–0.8365 range
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 UTC Wed could shift yields ahead of CPI
Higher low at 0.8313 inside 0.8287–0.8349 week range.
USDCHF climbed from Monday's 0.8287 week low to a 0.8349 week high. London started the rally and NY extended it as Middle East headlines lifted haven USD, and it stalled just above last week's 0.8347 high. Tuesday's pullback on softer yields and oil reached the 0.8313 today low, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of Monday's rally, before the NY open rejected it. Price now sits on EMA(50) and just under the ema20 at 0.8329, with RSI(14) neutral near 48 and the 0.8334 intraday cap holding every bounce since the Asia session.
Support: 0.83131, 0.8300, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.83287, 0.8334, 0.83486
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 0.8313 today low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 0.8300 round number, then the 0.8287 week low
Acceptance above the 0.8334 intraday cap and the 0.8349 week high clears the double cap with last week's high, putting the 0.8365/0.8380 range top in play
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m), with Fed Bowman at 09:40 UTC beforehand, is the main catalyst for a break of the week range
The week opened at 0.8297 and dipped to a week low of 0.8287 in early Asia, sweeping Friday's lows. London and NY then drove a 60-pip rally to the 0.8349 week high on haven USD demand around Middle East headlines. Tuesday faded as yields and oil eased, leaving price below the EMA(20) near 0.8333; the NY-open spike to the 0.8313 Tuesday low, a 50–61.8% retracement of Monday's move, met a sharp rejection, with RSI(14) at 45.
Support: 0.8313, 0.8300, 0.8287
Resistance: 0.8333, 0.8349
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 14 Oct 12:30 UTC; core m/m vs 0.2% could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 0.8313 Tuesday low exposes the 0.8300 round number and the 0.8287 week low
Reclaiming the ema20 at 0.8333 and then clearing the 0.8349 week high reopens the 0.8365 range top
A hold of 0.8313 keeps the pullback a retracement of Monday's rally rather than a full reversal
Higher low at 0.8313 after Monday's impulse; capped below 0.8349.
A London-led rally on Monday carried USD/CHF from the weekly open near 0.8297 to a 0.8349 week high, level with Thursday's 0.8347 cap. Middle East escalation lifted haven USD over CHF in that move, and RSI(14) peaked near 79. Tuesday has retraced as Treasury yields and oil eased: the NY-open dip found demand at 0.8313, near the 61.8% retracement of Monday's rally, and snapped back to EMA(20) around 0.8330. RSI(14) has recovered from about 37 to 52, while the 0.8334 intraday cap has held through London and NY hours.
Support: 0.8330, 0.8313, 0.8297
Resistance: 0.8334, 0.8346, 0.8349
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8334 intraday cap reopens the 0.8346 tuesday high and 0.8349 week high band
Failure to hold the 0.8313 tuesday low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the weekly open at 0.8297
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; a hot core is the scenario for a test of the week high
Lower highs off 0.8349 week high, mid-range of 0.8290–0.8350.
Monday's rally ran from the 0.8293 Asian low to a 0.8349 week high through London and NY on the Middle East haven bid. The level sits just above Thursday's 0.8347 peak, and price met rejection there. Since Monday's close, softer yields and oil have produced a sequence of lower highs. Price lost the 0.8325 prior range floor this morning and is now trading below EMA(20) and EMA(50). The session low at 0.8317 sits just under the 50% retracement of the Monday rally, with RSI(14) slipping into the high 30s.
Support: 0.83166, 0.8314, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.8325, 0.83344, 0.83486
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8314 fib 61.8 of the Monday rally exposes the 0.8300 round number, last week's repeated floor
Reclaiming the 0.8325 prior range and then 0.8334 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Holding the 0.8317 session low keeps the move a mid-range retracement rather than a full reversal of Monday's gains
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; Bowman speaks at 09:40 UTC beforehand
An H1 close above the 0.8349 week high would break the 0.8290–0.8350 weekly range
Lower highs since Tuesday open after rejection at week high.
Monday's London and NY sessions drove a 56-pip leg from the 0.8293 Monday low to a 0.8349 week high, a rejection just above Thursday's 0.8347 peak. Since Tuesday's Asia open the pair has carved lower highs and slipped under EMA(20) near 0.8330 as Treasury yields and oil eased and DXY backed off 18-month highs, with the London high at 0.8334 capping. Price is now testing the 50% fib of Monday's leg near 0.8321 with RSI(14) at 41, still above the 0.8300 round number that has anchored the range floor.
Support: 0.8321, 0.8300, 0.8293
Resistance: 0.8330, 0.8334, 0.8349
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8321 50% fib exposes the 0.8300 round number and the 0.8293 Monday low
Reclaiming EMA(20) at 0.8330 and the 0.8334 London high breaks the Tuesday lower highs sequence
Week high at 0.8349 remains the range cap; a close above it changes the range read
US ADP 12:15 UTC and Existing Home Sales 14:00 UTC today, then US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday's 0.8349 top, testing 38.2%.
Monday's London-into-NY rally ran from the 0.8287 week low just under the weekly open to a 0.8349 week high, but stalled shy of 0.8350 and has faded since Tuesday's Asia high at 0.8346 as DXY eased off 18-month highs on softer yields and the oil reversal. Price has slipped below EMA(20) near 0.8330 and sits on EMA(50) at today's 0.8324 session low, which coincides with the 38.2% retracement of Monday's rally. RSI(14) has rolled to the high-30s, and the 0.8334 session high marks the latest in a series of lower highs.
Support: 0.83242, 0.83179, 0.82974
Resistance: 0.83344, 0.83461, 0.83486
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8324 session low exposes the 50% fib at 0.8318, then the 0.8297 weekly open
Reclaim of the 0.8334 session high and the lower-highs line puts the 0.8346 asia high and 0.8349 week high back in focus
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; ADP and Budget Statement today are secondary
10:03 UTC
Range-bound, fading off week high · RSI 49 · price 0.83283
Lower highs from 0.8348, holding 38.2% retrace of Monday rally.
Monday's rally from the week low at 0.8287 ran through the NY session into the week high at 0.8348. That high stalled within 2 pips of Thursday's 0.8347 peak, a second rejection at the same shelf. Price gapped lower at Tuesday's Asia open as DXY eased off its 18-month high ahead of Wednesday's US CPI, then drifted to the tue low at 0.8325. That low sits on the 38.2% retrace of the Monday rally. London has since compressed in a 0.8325–0.8334 band under a flattening EMA(20), with RSI(14) back to neutral and a short run of lower highs capping each bounce.
Support: 0.83255, 0.8300, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.83315, 0.8348, 0.8365
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8325 tue low and 38.2% fib opens the 50% retrace near 0.8318, then 0.8300 psych
Close back above ema20 and the lower-highs line puts the 0.8348 week high back in play; a third failure there reinforces the double peak
Loss of 0.8300 psych exposes the 0.8287 week low and unwinds the Monday rally
Break of the 0.8348 week high brings UOB's 0.8365 range top into view
US Sept CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read; ADP and Existing Home Sales today are secondary
0.8287–0.8349 range; pullback from week high to 38.2% fib.
USDCHF opened the week at 0.8297 and set the 0.8287 week low in early Asia. A London-and-NY rally on Monday, driven by the Middle East and oil-led USD bid, then ran to 0.8349, a week high that stalled just above Thursday's 0.8347 peak. Tuesday's Asia session faded the move as DXY eased off its highs, and the London open found demand at 0.8325, the 38.2% fib of Monday's rally. Price now sits just below EMA(20) near 0.8332 and above EMA(50) around 0.8327, with RSI(14) back in the mid-50s inside the 0.8287–0.8349 range.
Support: 0.83251, 0.83018, 0.82872
Resistance: 0.83323, 0.83486, 0.8365
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.8325 (38.2% fib) exposes the 50% at 0.8318 and Friday's prior close near 0.8302
Failure to hold the 0.8287 week low breaks the range floor and confirms a lower-low
H1 close back above EMA(20) at 0.8332, then above the 0.8349 week high, clears the double cap and brings the 0.8365 range top into view
US CPI on Wed 12:30 UTC; core vs the 0.2% m/m forecast could materially shift this read
07:04 UTC
Range, pulling back from week high · RSI 45 · price 0.83262
0.8293–0.8349 range; twin highs at the top, lower highs through Tuesday Asia.
Monday's rally from the London open into NY took the pair from the 0.8293 Monday low to a 0.8349 week high, as Middle East escalation and oil above $93 lifted USD over CHF. The move stalled just above Thursday's 0.8347 peak, leaving twin highs at the top of the window's range. Tuesday's Asia session printed a series of lower highs as DXY eased off 18-month highs. Price is now below EMA(20) at 0.8332, sitting on EMA(50) and the 38.2% fib of the Monday rally near 0.8327, with RSI(14) at 45 and ATR(14) about 6 pips.
Support: 0.8321, 0.8300, 0.8293
Resistance: 0.8332, 0.8348, 0.8365
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 50% fib at 0.8321 extends the Monday-rally retracement toward the 0.8300 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8293 Monday low turns the twin highs at the week high into a completed double top
Recovery above EMA(20) and the Tuesday lower-highs line near 0.8334 restores Monday's momentum; a clean break of the 0.8348 week high puts the 0.8365 range top in play
Waller at 07:45 UTC today and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
06:03 UTC
Pullback inside a range after Monday's rally · RSI 47 · price 0.83276
Range 0.8296–0.8349; Monday high failed just above Thursday's top, now retracing.
Monday's London and NY sessions lifted the pair from 0.8293 to a 0.8349 week high, taking out Thursday's 0.8347 top by only 2 pips. The move followed hawkish Fed commentary and Middle East escalation, which favoured USD over CHF as the haven. Tuesday's Asia session opened on a gap lower and slipped below EMA(20) at 0.8332 as DXY took profit ahead of CPI. Price is now testing the 38.2% fib of Monday's leg at 0.8327, with EMA(50) just beneath and RSI(14) back below 50 near 47.
Support: 0.83272, 0.83206, 0.82974
Resistance: 0.83324, 0.83486, 0.8365
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 50% fib at 0.8321 deepens the retracement toward the weekly open at 0.8297
Recovery above ema20 at 0.8332, then the 0.8349 week high, puts the 0.8365 range top back in play
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC and ADP at 12:15 UTC could test the 38.2% fib hold
US CPI on Wed 12:30 UTC: core vs the 0.2% m/m forecast is the main risk to the range read
0.8293–0.8349 range; Monday impulse being retraced into the EMA20.
The week opened at 0.8297. After an Asian low near 0.8293, a London-led rally on Monday extended through NY to a week high of 0.8349. That move came as USD's oil and haven bid took DXY to fresh highs, but it stalled only a few pips above Thursday's 0.8346 top. In Asia on Tuesday, price faded to the 0.8327 asia low, close to the 38.2% retracement of Monday's impulse. It now sits on the ema20 at 0.8333, with RSI(14) back near 53 from overbought-adjacent readings.
Support: 0.83274, 0.83179, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83333, 0.83486, 0.8365
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8327 asia low exposes the fib 50% at 0.8318, then the 0.8300 round number
Recovery above the ema20 and a close through the 0.8349 week high puts the 0.8365 range top in view
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC today and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC; a core surprise could materially shift this read
04:02 UTC
Up-leg from weekly open, now pulling back · RSI 41 · price 0.83296
Monday impulse stalled at prior-week high; Asia retrace testing 38.2%.
USD/CHF ran roughly 55 pips off the weekly open at 0.8297 on Monday, starting at London open and extending into the NY open, as oil-driven inflation risk and hawkish Fed talk lifted the dollar. The move stalled at the 0.8349 week high, just above last Thursday's 0.8347 peak. Price then slipped through Monday's rally line and below ema20 during the Asia session, with the 0.8327 Asia low sitting on the 38.2% fib of the up-leg. RSI(14) has eased to the low 40s, and ATR is compressed near 5–6 pips.
Support: 0.83272, 0.83206, 0.82974
Resistance: 0.83331, 0.83486, 0.8365
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 38.2% fib at 0.8327 exposes the 50% fib near 0.8321, then the weekly open at 0.8297
Recovery back above ema20 at 0.8333 would put the week high at 0.8349 back in focus
Clearing the 0.8349 week high opens the 0.8365 range top (UOB band)
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC today could shift this read
US CPI on Wed 12:30 UTC is the main event risk; core m/m vs the 0.2% forecast is the swing factor
03:03 UTC
Range, Monday rally fading in Asia · RSI 49 · price 0.83289
Monday's 61-pip rally off the 0.8287 low began at London open and extended into the NY session. Oil rebounding on Middle East escalation and a firm USD drove it to a 0.8349 week high, just above Thursday's 0.8347 peak, before stalling. Asia session trade on Tuesday has slipped back below EMA(20) at 0.8334 to an Asia low of 0.8327, breaking the Monday trendline. That low sits on EMA(50) at 0.8326 and the 38.2% retracement of the Monday rally fib. RSI(14) has cooled from the low 70s to ~49, leaving the pair mid-range within the week's 0.8287–0.8349 band.
Support: 0.8327, 0.8318, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.8334, 0.8349, 0.8365
What it said to watch
Hourly closes below the 0.8327 asia low and EMA(50) expose the 50% fib at 0.8318, then the 0.8300 round number
Recovery above EMA(20) at 0.8334 and a close beyond the 0.8349 week high would break the range toward the 0.8365 range top
A second stall at 0.8347–0.8349 would mark a repeat rejection at the week high
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC today and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
02:03 UTC
Recovery leg stalling at week high · RSI 53 · price 0.83321
0.8296–0.8349 range; Monday rally pulling back in Asia.
USDCHF recovered from Friday's slide toward the 0.8296 area. Monday's London open started a roughly 60-pip leg that NY extended to the monday high at 0.8349, a marginal poke above Thursday's 0.8347 as broad USD strength on the oil shock and Middle East escalation lifted the pair. The move stalled through the NY close, and the Asia session has pulled price back to the asian low near 0.8330, just under EMA(20) at 0.8334 but above EMA(50) near 0.8326. RSI(14) has cooled to 53 from near 80, and price sits around the 23.6% retracement of Monday's leg, with the 50% fib at 0.8318 below.
Support: 0.8330, 0.8318, 0.8297
Resistance: 0.8334, 0.8349, 0.8365
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the ema20 at 0.8334 and then the monday high at 0.8349 would break the week's range ceiling, putting the 0.8365 range top cited by UOB in view
Failure to hold the asian low at 0.8330 exposes the 50% fib of Monday's leg at 0.8318
A move back below the weekly open at 0.8297 would negate Monday's recovery and return price to Friday's lows
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and Wednesday's US CPI (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Monday impulse from 0.8287 to 0.8349, now a tight consolidation above EMA20.
The Monday rally ran about 61 pips from the 0.8287 week low at the open to the 0.8349 week high. It started at London open and extended through NY hours as the oil shock, geopolitics and Hammack's hawkish remarks lifted the USD. Since then price has compressed in a 0.8340–0.8349 band just above last Thursday's 0.8347 cap, with RSI(14) cooling from the low 70s to around 58. Price is still holding above EMA20 near 0.8335, and the 38.2% fib of the Monday rally sits at 0.8325 beneath it.
Support: 0.83353, 0.83251, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83486, 0.8365, 0.8380
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8349 week high opens the 0.8365 UOB range top, then the 0.8380 17m high
Loss of EMA20 at 0.8335 exposes the 0.8325 fib 38.2, with 0.8300 psych and Friday's close below that
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC, core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
A US yield pullback or calmer oil would test whether the Monday rally holds above 0.8325
00:03 UTC
Short-term up, stalling at week high · RSI 63 · price 0.83412
0.8296–0.8349 range since Wednesday; Monday rally retests top.
Monday's rally ran from the 0.8287 week low at the open to a 0.8349 week high into the NY session. It erased Friday's slide and brought price back to Thursday's 0.8347 range high as oil above $93, Middle East escalation and Hammack's hawkish remarks lifted the dollar. Since the NY session, price has held a tight 0.8340–0.8349 band with EMA(20) rising to 0.8335 underneath and RSI(14) easing from the mid-60s.
Support: 0.8335, 0.8325, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.8349, 0.8365, 0.8380
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8349 week high breaks the range top and brings UOB's 0.8365 range top into view, with the 0.8380 17-mth high beyond
Failure to hold EMA(20) near 0.8335 exposes the 38.2% fib of the Monday rally at 0.8325
A return below the 0.8300 round number would put price back in the lower half of the week's range
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC, around London open) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC, core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read