21:05 UTC
Uptrend since late August, momentum cooling · RSI 63 · price 0.83018
HH/HL chain intact; two-week consolidation under the cycle high.
USDCHF has held a seven-week uptrend since the Aug 20 low at 0.7950, with higher lows at 0.8052, the sep 22 low at 0.8183 and the oct 2 low at 0.8227. Price sits above a rising EMA(50) and the rising trendline from the Sep 3 low. The Oct 1 rejection at the 0.8382 cycle high has been followed by roughly two weeks of consolidation between 0.8227 and 0.8347, which marks a lower high. Firm USD on hawkish Fed pricing is meeting modest CHF demand as US yields eased, and price is now testing the 0.8300 psych level with RSI near 63, off its late-September highs.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82271, 0.81833
Resistance: 0.83465, 0.83824
What it said to watch
- A daily close below the oct 2 low at 0.8227 would break the higher-low sequence and the rising trendline. That would open the sep 22 low at 0.8183 near the 50% retrace of the aug-oct rally.
- Acceptance back above the 0.8347 lower high would reopen the 0.8382 cycle high. A close through it would resume the HH chain.
- Holding the 0.8300 psych level, close to the 23.6% retrace of the aug-oct rally, would keep the consolidation read intact.
- US CPI on Wed Oct 14 (f/c 3.6% y/y) and Fed speakers beforehand could materially shift this read.