21:04 UTC
Uptrend, pressing back toward highs · RSI 64 · price 0.83304
HH/HL chain from Aug 18 low; higher low at 0.8227.
USDCHF has built a HH/HL chain since the 0.7950 low on Aug 18. It cleared the july high at 0.8207 in mid-September, held a retest low at 0.8183 and extended to a 17-month swing high at 0.8382 on Oct 1, with price holding above a rising EMA(50) throughout. The level saw a sharp rejection the next session to the 0.8227 swing low as a global bond selloff drew haven demand into CHF, but four straight daily gains on hawkish FOMC minutes and broad USD strength have brought price back to 0.8330, with rising support from the August low intact and RSI in the mid-60s, short of overbought.
Support: 0.8227, 0.8207, 0.8183
Resistance: 0.8382, 0.8400
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 0.8382 swing high extends the HH chain and puts the 0.8400 round number in play
- A second rejection below 0.8382 would leave a double-top shape at the highs
- Daily close below the 0.8227 swing low breaks the HL chain and the rising support from August, exposing the july high at 0.8207 and the 38.2% fib of the Aug-Oct swing
- A break below the 0.8183 retest low would undo the mid-September breakout above the summer range
- Fri UMich sentiment and inflation expectations, plus Collins: firmer expectations support USD, while bond-market or Middle East stress has repeatedly revived the CHF haven bid