21:04 UTC
Uptrend since late August, pausing below the October high · RSI 61 · price 0.83232
Higher-high/higher-low chain from 0.7950; tight consolidation under 0.8327 after the Oct 1 reversal.
USDCHF has built a six-week chain of higher highs and higher lows since the Aug 20 low near 0.7950. The 0.8052 sept low held, the 0.8183 higher low followed on Sep 22, and the run peaked at the 0.8382 oct high on Oct 1. A global bond selloff revived CHF's haven appeal and drove a sharp reversal to the 0.8227 swing low. That dip retested the rising Aug trendline and the 38.2% retracement of the Aug-Oct swing, and price has since recovered. The last three sessions have compressed beneath a 0.8327 range cap, with price above a rising EMA(20) and EMA(50) and RSI near 61, so there is room before overbought.
Support: 0.8227, 0.8183, 0.8052
Resistance: 0.8327, 0.8382, 0.8400
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 0.8227 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the Aug trendline, exposing the 0.8183 higher low
- Daily close above the 0.8327 range cap reopens the 0.8382 oct high, with 0.8400 round number beyond
- A new close above 0.8382 would extend the higher-high sequence to 16-month highs
- Thu Waller, Initial Jobless Claims (f/c 200K) and Musalem, plus the 30-year auction, could shift US yields and this read
- Renewed European fiscal or bond-market stress reviving the CHF haven bid would pressure the 0.8227 swing low