Higher lows since the 0.8227 swing low, pressing the 0.8324–0.8342 cap below the 0.8366 range top.
The Oct 1 reversal from the 0.8382 16m high ran to a 0.8227 swing low as CHF's haven bid revived on the bond selloff. Since then, price has built a higher-lows sequence back above the 61.8% retracement of that drop. Successive higher lows at 0.8277, 0.8298 and 0.8317 have lifted price into the 0.8324 prior cap and this week's 0.8342 week high. EMA20 and EMA50 both sit below price. ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 17–18 pips from the 50-pip-plus bars of the drop, consistent with coiling beneath the 0.8366 range top while firm USD yields and oil keep the pair supported.
Support: 0.8324, 0.8298, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8342, 0.8366, 0.8382
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.8342 week high opens a test of the 0.8366 range top, with the 0.8382 16m high as the extension marker
Slip back below the 0.8324 prior cap would mark the push above it as a failed break
Loss of the 0.8298 higher low breaks the recovery trendline and puts the 0.8227 swing low back in focus
Thursday's Jobless Claims (f/c 200K) and Waller/Musalem remarks could shift US yields and this read
Higher highs and higher lows since the 0.8227 swing low.
The three-week advance from 0.81 peaked at the 0.8382 16m high. Haven flows into CHF during last week's global bond sell-off then drove a 155-pip drop to the 0.8227 swing low. Since then the recovery has built a clean sequence of higher lows (0.8277, 0.8298 higher low, 0.8308), and price is back above the 0.8318 pivot and beyond the 61.8% retrace of that drop. ATR(14) has compressed to about 20 pips from the 50-pip bars of the sell-off, and price is pressing the 0.8342 week high with both EMAs below.
Support: 0.8318, 0.8298, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8342, 0.8362, 0.8382
What it said to watch
An H4 close above the 0.8342 week high extends the higher-high sequence and opens the 0.8362 prior highs, then the 0.8382 16m high
Failure to hold the 0.8318 pivot, and a break of the recovery higher lows trendline near the 0.8298 higher low, would reopen the 0.8227 swing low
FOMC Minutes in ~1h could materially shift this read: hawkish text extends the USD bid, while dovish or labor-concern language risks a return below the pivot
A renewed bond-market or Eurozone fiscal stress episode would revive the CHF haven bid that drove the drop from the 16m high
Higher lows since early Sep; retracing the 0.8382-0.8227 drop.
Higher-low structure has held since early September. Friday's slide from the 16m high at 0.8382 to the 0.8227 swing low came on the soft US wage print and a CHF haven bid, but it stopped well above the prior low at 0.8183. Price has since recovered to the 61.8% retracement of that drop near 0.8323 and sits marginally above both EMAs. Supply is capping the recent high at 0.8338 while ATR(14) compresses to about 19 pips, against 50-65 pip bars during the selloff.
Support: 0.8298, 0.8227, 0.8183
Resistance: 0.8338, 0.8382
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT today could materially shift this read; hawkish pricing is already partly in USD
H4 close above the 0.8338 recent high clears the 61.8% retracement and reopens the 0.8382 16m high
Failure to hold the 0.8298 higher low exposes the 0.8227 swing low
A break of the higher lows trendline and the 0.8183 prior low would end the uptrend read
Higher lows off 0.8227, retesting upper half of the drop.
The three-week climb from 0.8067 topped at the 0.8382 16m high. Price then reversed sharply to the 0.8227 swing low as a global bond selloff drew safe-haven flows into CHF. Higher lows at 0.8277 and 0.8298 have since lifted price back above the 0.8320 pivot, near the 61.8% retrace of that drop, and it is now pressing the 0.8336 recent high. EMA20 and EMA50 have flattened together just below price, and ATR(14) has compressed to about 21 pips from 30+ during the selloff, a contracting regime as the recovery stalls under the prior highs at 0.8362–0.8367.
Support: 0.8320, 0.8298, 0.82271
Resistance: 0.83361, 0.83669, 0.83824
What it said to watch
An H4 close back below the 0.8320 pivot would put the recovery above the 61.8% retrace in question
Failure to hold the 0.8298 higher low and the rising trendline would expose the 0.8227 swing low
A close above the 0.8367 prior highs opens a retest of the 0.8382 16-month high
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT and today's US 10y auction could materially shift this read via Fed hike odds
Higher lows from 0.8227, pressing above prior cap.
USD/CHF has retraced about two-thirds of last week's sell-off from the 0.8382 16m high to the 0.8227 swing low. Price has printed higher lows along a rising trendline and is now edging above the 0.8326 prior cap, with the USD bid on yields and oil-led inflation fears doing the lifting. Price sits back above both EMAs and ATR(14) has contracted to about 20 pips from the sell-off expansion, leaving the 0.8365 range top as the next overhead test.
Support: 0.8326, 0.8298, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8365, 0.8382
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 0.8326 prior cap would mark the push as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8298 higher low breaks the rising trendline structure
Rejection at the 0.8365 range top keeps the pair inside its multi-day corridor below the 16m high
FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read via October hike pricing
A deeper global bond selloff has been CHF-positive and could revive the sell-off toward the swing low
01:03 UTC
Recovering after sharp pullback, stalling at cap · RSI 59 · price 0.83232
Higher lows from 0.8227, capped at 0.8320-0.8326.
USDCHF reversed hard from the 0.8382 16m high to the 0.8227 swing low as the soft NFP and the global bond selloff pulled Fed hike odds lower. The rebound since has printed higher lows at 0.8277 (prior low) and 0.8298 (higher low), but four sessions of highs have stalled at the 0.8320 cap, the former support now tested from below and aligned with the 61.8% retracement of the drop. ATR(14) has compressed to about 19 pips from the expansion during the sell-off, and price sits just above both EMAs with EMA20 converging on EMA50 from below.
Support: 0.8298, 0.8277, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8326, 0.8366, 0.8382
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.8320 cap at 0.8326 clears the 61.8% retracement and opens the path to the 0.8366 range top and the 16m high at 0.8382
Failure to hold the 0.8298 higher low breaks the short-term higher lows line and exposes the 0.8277 prior low
Loss of the multi-week rising support near 0.8247 and the 0.8227 swing low would turn the swing structure lower
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a hawkish lean favours a test of the cap, while a dovish read revives the move back toward the swing low