Lower high at 0.8347 under 0.8382; rising trendline broken.
The rebound from the 0.8227 reversal low built higher highs and higher lows on a four-day USD grind after the hawkish FOMC minutes. It stalled at the 0.8347 recent high, near the 78.6% retrace of the drop and well short of the 0.8382 cycle high, which leaves a lower high. The latest bar broke the rising trendline from the 0.8277 higher low and slipped below both EMAs, which have flattened together. Price now sits between the 50% and 61.8% retrace, with ATR(14) near 17 pips, well below the early-October expansion.
Support: 0.8298, 0.8277, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8347, 0.8382
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.8298 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes 0.8277, then the 0.8227 reversal low
Recovery back above the broken rising trendline and a close through the 0.8347 recent high would reopen the 0.8382 cycle high
Lower highs from 0.8382 keep the pullback read intact while price holds under 0.8347
UMich sentiment, inflation expectations and Fed's Collins on Fri 14:00 UTC could shift the USD leg
Bond-market or Middle East stress headlines have repeatedly triggered sharp CHF haven reversals in this window
Higher highs and higher lows from 0.8227, still below the 0.8382 high.
The rebound from the 0.8227 swing low has printed higher highs and higher lows. It has retraced beyond the 61.8% of the 0.8382–0.8227 drop, and price holds above both EMAs as broad USD strength on hawkish Fed minutes and firmer yields rebuilds the pair. Highs are rising more slowly than the rising line of lows into the 0.8347 swing high, giving a rising wedge shape as ATR(14) compresses to ~17 pips from the 40–60 pip bars of the late-September drop.
Support: 0.8320, 0.8298, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8347, 0.8366, 0.8382
What it said to watch
An H4 close above the 0.8347 swing high exposes the 0.8366 prior high and the 0.8382 17-mth high, the level that rejected price last week
A break of the rising line and the 0.8320 swing lows would mark a wedge failure and open the 0.8298 higher low
Loss of the 0.8298 higher low reopens the 0.8227 swing low and ends the recovery structure
Fed's Musalem today and Friday's Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations could shift US yields and materially change this read
Higher lows since 0.8183; drop from 0.8382 ~70% retraced.
The higher-low line from the 0.8183 swing low held on the sharp drop from the 0.8382 prior high to the 0.8227 swing low. Price has since retraced about 70% of that drop, stepping up through a 0.8298 higher low and a 0.8320 pivot low along a recovery line, and now sits just under the 0.8347 week high. ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 16 pips from the expansion seen in the selloff, with broad USD strength on hawkish FOMC minutes and SNB lower-for-longer commentary driving the grind back toward the 0.8365–0.8382 cap.
Support: 0.8320, 0.8298, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8347, 0.8382, 0.8400
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.8382 prior high marks a fresh higher high and a range break, with the 0.8400 round number next
A stall at 0.8347–0.8382 that repeats last week's rejection would reopen the 0.8320 pivot low
H4 close below the 0.8298 higher low breaks the recovery line sequence and exposes the 0.8227 swing low
Fed's Kashkari (14:40 UTC) and Musalem (17:40 UTC) today, then Michigan sentiment Fri 14:00 UTC, could shift this read via US yields
Higher lows from 0.8227, lower high at 0.8342 vs 0.8382.
USDCHF has recovered roughly three-quarters of the drop from the 0.8382 16-month high to the 0.8227 swing low, carving higher lows at 0.8277 and 0.8298 as hawkish FOMC minutes and 24-year-high US yields kept the dollar firm. Momentum faded at the 0.8342 swing high, which sits below the lower-high line from 0.8382. Price is now retesting the 61.8% fib of that drop near 0.8321, which coincides with the rising support line. ATR(14) has compressed to about 17 pips from 60+ pip bars in the early-October swing, and price is holding just above both EMAs.
Support: 0.8321, 0.8298, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8342, 0.8382
What it said to watch
An H4 close below the 0.8298 higher low breaks the rising support sequence and exposes the 0.8227 swing low
A close above the 0.8342 swing high and the lower-high line reopens the 0.8382 16-month high
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 0.8321 would point to a deeper retracement of the recovery
US jobless claims and Waller/Musalem remarks today could shift December hike odds and the dollar's yield support
Iran/Hormuz and French fiscal headlines are the main haven-CHF risk to the recovery structure
Higher low at 0.8227 above 0.8183; lower high at 0.8342 vs 0.8382, contracting.
The three-week advance from 0.8084 topped at the 16m high of 0.8382, then reversed sharply to the 0.8227 oct low as the bond sell-off and European debt stress revived CHF's haven bid. That low held above the prior 0.8183 swing, keeping higher lows intact. The recovery, helped by the yield- and oil-driven USD bid, has retraced more than 61.8% of the Oct swing retrace but is stalling under the 0.8342 week high. With lower highs against rising support and ATR(14) compressed to about 17 pips from 30-60 pip bars at the start of the month, the pair is coiling.
Support: 0.8298, 0.8227
Resistance: 0.8342, 0.8382
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.8342 week high breaks the lower highs sequence and opens a retest of the 0.8382 16m high
Failure to hold the 0.8298 swing low and rising support exposes the 0.8227 oct low and the range floor
Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) Thursday could resolve the compression either way via US yields