Lower highs from London peak; post-NY compression above the 0.8307 swing low.
USDCHF topped at 0.8347 in the London morning, then printed a run of lower highs (0.8341, then the 0.8336 lower high) along a descending trendline. NY hours saw the slide extend to a 0.8307 swing low as USD faded on Trump's Iran de-escalation and softer oil. The rebound stalled at the fib 38.2 near 0.8322, and early Asia is compressing between the 0.8309 Asia low and 0.8317 Asia high, with RSI(14) flat near 49 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 0.83089, 0.83066
Resistance: 0.83173, 0.83221, 0.83361
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8317 Asia high puts the fib 38.2 at 0.8322 and the descending trendline near 0.8324 back in play
A close through the trendline and the 0.8336 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.8309 Asia low exposes the 0.8307 swing low; a break there extends the downtrend
Unscheduled Iran/oil headlines could shift this read before Friday's UoM sentiment and inflation expectations (14:00 UTC)
23:31 UTC
Downtrend from London high, now stalling · RSI 52 · price 0.83153
Lower highs and lower lows through NY; tight consolidation above the day low in early Asia.
USD faded during NY hours as oil eased on Trump's Iran de-escalation. USD/CHF broke below the Asian range low and printed a 0.8307 day low, after a run of lower highs from the 0.8347 London high. Early Asia is compressing in a 0.8309–0.8317 band between the session low and session high, with RSI(14) near 52 and ATR(14) about 3 pips.
Support: 0.8309, 0.8307
Resistance: 0.8317, 0.8322, 0.8336
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.8322 swing high, where the 38.2% fib of the London high–NY low drop meets the lower-high trendline, breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.8309 session low exposes the 0.8307 day low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
Any retracement into the 0.8336 lower high would put price back inside the Asian range
Iran/oil headlines overnight, and UoM sentiment plus inflation expectations at Fri 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.8346 London high; tight early-Asia range 0.8309–0.8317.
USD/CHF faded from the 0.8346 London high through NY hours as the dollar's oil and geopolitical premium unwound on Trump's Iran de-escalation, with a chain of lower highs down to the 0.8307 NY low. Early Asia session is compressing in a 0.8309–0.8317 range above that low. The 0.8322 lower high sits on the 38.2% fib of the London-to-NY drop.
Support: 0.8309, 0.8307
Resistance: 0.8317, 0.8322, 0.8336
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8317 range top puts the 0.8322 lower high and 38.2% fib in play
Reclaim of 0.8322 opens the 0.8336 bounce high and breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 0.8309 asia low and 0.8307 ny low extends the lower-low chain
Unscheduled Iran or bond-market headlines can trigger a CHF haven bid; UoM sentiment Fri 14:00 UTC is the next scheduled USD risk
23:02 UTC
Downtrend from London high, now flattening · RSI 46 · price 0.83147
Lower highs below 0.8322; tight 0.8309–0.8317 box above the NY low.
London lifted USDCHF above the 0.8320–0.8336 Asian range to 0.8347, then NY rejected it as the USD faded on Trump's Iran de-escalation, flushing to the 0.8307 NY low. The bounce stalled at the 38.2% fib near 0.8322, and early Asia is compressing between the rollover low at 0.8309 and the late NY cap at 0.8317, just under EMA20.
Support: 0.83089, 0.83066, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83173, 0.83221
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8317 late NY cap reopens the 38.2% fib at 0.8322; acceptance there reclaims the Asian range low
Failure to hold the 0.8309 rollover low exposes the 0.8307 NY low and the 0.8300 psych level
Unscheduled Iran/oil headlines during Asia hours could break the box; Friday's UoM sentiment at 14:00 UTC is the next scheduled risk
22:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 43 · price 0.83129
Lower highs and lower lows since London high; tight post-rollover range.
The London rally to 0.83465 faded. NY then printed two legs lower as Trump's Iran de-escalation pulled USD back, putting the NY low at 0.83066, and the bounce stalled at the 0.83221 lower high, the 38.2% fib of the London-NY drop. Early Asia is compressing between the 0.83089 rollover gap low and the 0.8317 range top, with price below both EMAs on thin liquidity.
Support: 0.83089, 0.83066, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.8317, 0.83221, 0.83361
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8317 range top ends the compression read
Recovery through the 0.83221 lower high (38.2% fib) breaks the lower-high chain, with the 0.83361 pre-drop high next
Break below the 0.83066 NY low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8300 round number
Price is testing the descending line from the London high near 0.8314
Prelim UoM sentiment and inflation expectations (Fri 14:00 UTC) and any Iran/oil headlines could materially shift this read
22:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, pausing in early Asia · RSI 45 · price 0.83126
Lower highs and lows since the London high; tight post-rollover range.
USD/CHF faded from the 0.83465 London day high through NY hours as Trump's Iran de-escalation comments weighed on USD. The pair printed a 0.83066 day low, and the bounce stalled at the 0.83221 swing high, on the 38.2% fib. Early Asia is holding a tight 0.8309–0.8317 range after a rollover gap lower, below the prior Asian range low, with RSI(14) neutral near 45.
Support: 0.83089, 0.83066
Resistance: 0.83167, 0.83221, 0.83465
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.83066 day low extends the lower-low sequence
Loss of the 0.83089 rollover low breaks the post-gap range floor
Acceptance above the 0.83167 range top reopens the 0.83221 swing high / 38.2% fib
Descending trendline of lower highs from the day high stays intact while price holds below 0.8330
Unscheduled Iran/oil or US yield headlines can swing haven flows into CHF
22:03 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising off lows · RSI 46 · price 0.83156
Lower highs and lower lows from 0.8347, now basing 0.8309–0.8322.
London's push to 0.8347 was rejected below the 0.8350 area. NY then printed lower highs, including 0.8336, and broke the Asian low at 0.8320 to a 0.8307 day low as USD faded on Trump's Iran de-escalation. Since then price has based between the 0.8310 rollover low and the 38.2% fib near 0.8322, with RSI(14) near 46 and ATR around 3.6 pips in thin early-Asia trade.
Support: 0.83094, 0.83066
Resistance: 0.83173, 0.83204, 0.83361
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8320 asian low and 38.2% fib would challenge the lower-high sequence
Holding below the 0.8317 base top keeps price inside the post-low base
Failure at the 0.8310 rollover low exposes the 0.8307 day low and extends the lower-low chain
Lower highs trendline from 0.8347 through the 0.8336 lower high remains overhead
Unscheduled Iran/oil or US yield headlines in thin Asia trade could shift this read; UoM sentiment Fri 14:00 UTC
21:46 UTC
Downtrend from London high, stalling near lows · RSI 37 · price 0.83111
Lower highs since London; Asian low broken in NY, weak bounce.
USD/CHF faded from the 0.8347 London high through NY as the dollar gave ground on Trump's Iran de-escalation. Price broke the Asian low near 0.8320 and printed a 0.8307 NY low. The bounce retested that Asian low at 0.8322, which is also the 38.2% fib, and stalled there. Early Asia is sitting just above the 0.8309 rollover low after a thin-liquidity gap, capped by the 0.8317 late-NY high, with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 0.83089, 0.83066
Resistance: 0.83173, 0.83221, 0.8336
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8307 NY low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above 0.8322 (asian low / 38.2% fib) would neutralise the breakdown and reopen the 0.8336 asian high
Inability to clear the 0.8317 late-NY high keeps price pinned near the rollover low
Thin post-rollover Asia liquidity; UoM sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could shift the USD read
Lower highs from London peak, trading below Asian range low.
London printed the session high at 0.8347 before USD faded on the Iran de-escalation and oil slide. NY broke the 0.8320 Asian range low to a 0.8307 ny low, the bounce high at 0.8322 capped the recovery, and the new broker day opened with a gap down to a 0.8309 open low, leaving the 0.8317 gap fill overhead.
Support: 0.83089, 0.83066
Resistance: 0.83165, 0.83221
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8322 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.8307 ny low confirms a fresh lower low
Thin early-Asia liquidity; the 0.8317 gap fill is the first area to watch for rejection or break
Fri 14:00 UTC UoM sentiment and inflation expectations could materially shift this read
21:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London peak · RSI 43 · price 0.83109
Lower-high chain below 0.8322, new day gapped lower.
After a London-session high at 0.83465, NY broke below the 0.8320 Asian range low and printed a 0.83066 day low as USD faded on Trump's Iran de-escalation comments. A bounce stalled at the 0.83221 swing high, and the rollover opened with a 7-pip gap down to 0.8309 in thin trade; price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 0.83066, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83173, 0.83221
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.83173 gap fill breaks the lower-high trendline
Failure to hold the 0.83066 day low exposes the 0.8300 round number
M15 close back above the 0.83221 swing high and 38.2% retrace near 0.8322 neutralises the downtrend read
No scheduled events in the next 8h; Fri 14:00 UTC UoM sentiment and inflation expectations are the next scheduled USD catalyst
20:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 43 · price 0.83166
Lower highs and lower lows from London high; tight post-low consolidation.
USDCHF reversed from the London high at 0.8347 into a lower-high, lower-low chain through NY, hitting a day low of 0.8307 as USD gave back gains after Trump's Iran de-escalation comments cooled oil. The bounce stalled at the 38.2% fib near 0.8322. Price has since compressed in a 10-pip band above the late-NY low at 0.8312 heading into the Asia session, still under the falling trendline from the London high.
Support: 0.83124, 0.83066
Resistance: 0.83221, 0.83361, 0.83465
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8322 (38.2% fib) breaks the post-low consolidation and brings the 0.8336 lower high and falling trendline into play
Failure to hold the late-NY low at 0.8312 exposes the day low at 0.8307 and extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 0.8347 London high would invalidate the intraday downtrend read
No scheduled data overnight; Iran/oil headlines or US yield moves are the main unscheduled catalysts in thin Asia trade
20:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, momentum fading late NY · RSI 38 · price 0.83141
Lower highs below broken Asian range low.
USD/CHF faded from the 0.8347 london high, then broke below the Asian range during NY hours. The move came as Trump's Iran de-escalation knocked oil and the USD lower, and it printed a 0.8307 ny low. The bounce stalled at the 0.8322 bounce high, the 38.2% fib and old Asian range low, extending the lower highs, and price is now drifting near the 0.8312 late low in thin late-NY trade.
Support: 0.83124, 0.83066
Resistance: 0.83221, 0.83361, 0.83465
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8322 bounce high breaks the lower highs sequence and the 38.2% fib cap
Failure to hold the 0.8312 late low exposes the 0.8307 ny low; a break there extends the downtrend
Reclaim of the 0.8336 asian high would put price back inside the pre-NY range
Iran/oil headlines and Fri 14:00 UTC UMich inflation expectations could materially shift this read
20:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 37 · price 0.83144
Lower highs and lower lows from the 0.8347 London high, Asian low broken.
USD gave back gains as Iran de-escalation headlines cooled oil. USDCHF slid from the 0.8347 London high through the Asian low and the 0.8320 pivot to a 0.8307 NY low. The bounce stalled at a 0.8322 lower high, near the 50% retrace of the 0.8336 swing high drop, and price is drifting near 0.8314 into the NY close.
Support: 0.83066, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83221, 0.83361
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8322 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 0.8307 ny low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.8300 round number
Reclaim of the 0.8336 swing high invalidates the NY downtrend read
UMich sentiment and inflation expectations plus Collins, Fri 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
19:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 38 · price 0.83152
LH chain from 0.8347; Asian low broken, retest rejected.
The London high at 0.8347 has given way to a lower-high chain, and NY broke the Asian low near 0.8320 as USD faded on Trump's Iran comments and softer oil, tagging a 0.8307 session low. The bounce stalled at the broken asian low, which lines up with the 38.2% fib, and price is now drifting just above the 0.8314 micro low into the late NY lull.
Support: 0.83138, 0.83066
Resistance: 0.83215, 0.83361, 0.83465
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.8322 (asian low / 38.2% fib) undercuts the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 0.8314 micro low puts the 0.8307 session low back in play; a break extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 0.8336 lower high and the descending trendline would neutralise the downtrend
Unscheduled Iran/oil or bond-market headlines have driven haven flows into both USD and CHF; UoM sentiment Fri 14:00 UTC is the next scheduled test
Lower highs from London high, bounce capped at 38.2%.
Lower highs from the 0.83465 London high gave way after London close. A flush to a 0.83066 session low came as USD faded on Trump ruling out an Iran strike and softer oil. The bounce met rejection at the 0.83221 bounce high near the 38.2% fib, and price is pinned around 0.8316 in late NY hours, below both EMAs and the falling trendline.
Support: 0.83138, 0.83066, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83221, 0.83361
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.83138 micro low reopens the 0.83066 session low and the 0.8300 round number
M15 close above the 0.83221 bounce high (38.2% fib) undercuts the lower-high read; the 0.83361 lower high and falling trendline sit above
Fri 14:00 UTC UoM sentiment and inflation expectations could materially shift this read
19:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend after London high · RSI 38 · price 0.83147
Lower highs since 0.8336, range break below Asian low.
NY session unwound the London rally to 0.8347, breaking the Asian low at 0.8320 to a 0.8307 NY low as oil eased after Trump ruled out an Iran strike. The bounce was rejected at the 38.2% fib, which forms a lower high at 0.8322. Price is drifting near 0.8315 late in NY hours with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 0.83066, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83204, 0.83221, 0.83361
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8322 lower high and Asian low invalidates the breakdown read
Break of the descending highs line from the 0.8336 NY high would shift the structure back to range
Failure to hold the 0.8307 NY low confirms a lower-low and puts 0.8300 psych in view
Fri 14:00 UTC UoM sentiment and inflation expectations could materially shift this read
19:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 37 · price 0.8315
Asian range broken lower, bounce capped at fib 38.2.
London lifted the pair out of the 0.8320–0.8336 Asian range to a 0.8347 day high. NY then faded it on a chain of lower highs as USD lost altitude on Trump's Iran comments, breaking the asian low and printing a 0.8307 day low. The late-NY bounce stalled at the fib 38.2 near 0.8322 under the descending trendline, and price is back near 0.8315 after London close.
Support: 0.8307, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.8322, 0.8320, 0.8336
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.8320–0.8322 (asian low / fib 38.2) undercuts the range-break read
Clean break below the 0.8307 day low extends the lower-low chain, with the 0.8300 round number next
Close above the 0.8336 lower high and the descending trendline would negate the intraday downtrend
No scheduled events overnight; unscheduled Iran, oil or US yield headlines could shift this read
Lower highs since London high, Asian low broken in NY.
The London high at 0.8347 capped the session, and NY printed a string of lower highs as the oil-led USD fade after Trump's Iran comments extended. After London close the pair broke the Asian low at 0.8320 and set a day low at 0.8307; the bounce has stalled at the 38.2% retrace, right at the former Asian low, now acting as resistance late in NY.
Support: 0.8307, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.8322, 0.8327, 0.8336
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian low at 0.8322 and the 50% fib at 0.8327 would neutralise the breakdown and put the 0.8336 lower high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.8307 day low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.8300 round number
Price back above the falling lower-high trendline would break the intraday downtrend read
Unscheduled Iran, oil or US yield headlines could shift this read before Friday's 14:00 UTC UoM sentiment and inflation expectations
Lower highs from London high 0.8347; NY broke below Asian range to 0.8307.
London's push to the 0.8347 London high faded into a chain of lower highs. The NY session lost the 0.8320 Asian low and extended to a 0.8307 NY low, a slide that coincided with Trump's Iran de-escalation remarks trimming the USD haven bid. After London close, a base formed at 0.8313 and price is now retesting the Asian low from below, at the 50% retracement of the 0.8336 lower high to 0.8307 leg, with price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.83204, 0.8313, 0.83066
Resistance: 0.8325, 0.83361, 0.83465
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8325 breakdown level (61.8% fib) would put the 0.8336 lower high and the lower-highs trendline near 0.8332 back in play
Rejection at the 0.8320 Asian low keeps the lower-low sequence intact. Losing the 0.8313 base exposes the 0.8307 NY low
Michigan sentiment and UoM inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC, plus Iran/oil headlines, could materially shift this read
18:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend after London high · RSI 41 · price 0.83183
Lower highs and lower lows since 0.8346; Asian range broken lower.
London ran to a 0.8346 session high before NY reversed it. Two legs lower broke the Asian low near 0.8320 and printed a 0.8307 session low as Trump's Iran de-escalation trimmed USD's haven bid. The late-NY bounce off the 0.8313 bounce base is stalling back at the Asian low, which coincides with the 38.2% fib of the decline.
Support: 0.8313, 0.8307
Resistance: 0.8321, 0.8336, 0.8346
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.8321 (asian low / 38.2% fib) returns price to the Asian range and puts the 0.8336 lower high in view
Rejection at 0.8321 and a break of the 0.8313 bounce base put the 0.8307 session low back in play
The lower-high line from 0.8346 through 0.8336 caps the structure; a close above it breaks the lower-high chain
Thin liquidity after London close into Asia; Fri 14:00 UTC Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations could materially shift this read
18:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend since London high · RSI 36 · price 0.8314
Lower highs and lower lows, Asian range low broken late NY.
USDCHF topped at the 0.8347 London high, short of the 0.8365 range top, and has since printed lower highs at 0.8341 and 0.8336 under a falling trendline. The late-NY drop broke the 0.8320 Asian low and set a 0.8307 session low, in line with Trump's Iran de-escalation remarks trimming the haven leg of the USD bid. Price is basing near 0.8314 into the Asia session with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 0.8307, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.8320, 0.8336, 0.8347
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.8320 asian low would mark the range break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8307 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.8300 round number
A close above the 0.8336 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the downtrend sequence
Bounces into the 0.8327–0.8331 50–61.8% fib zone are the area to watch for rejection
US yield moves and Iran/oil headlines are the main unscheduled risk until Michigan sentiment Fri 14:00 UTC
Lower highs from the London high; Asian range low broken, shallow bounce under it.
A 17:00 UTC selloff in late NY broke the Asian low and the earlier NY low near 0.8320. It printed a session low at 0.8307 as Trump's Iran de-escalation headline trimmed haven USD demand. The bounce is holding below 0.8320, lower highs from the 0.8346 London high are intact and RSI(14) sits near 38.
Support: 0.83066, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.8320, 0.83361, 0.83465
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above 0.8320 (asian low, ~38.2% of the high-to-low fib) would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8307 session low exposes the 0.8300 round number
A close above the 0.8336 ny high breaks the lower-highs sequence from the london high
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the London peak; Asian low broken in late NY.
USD/CHF has faded from the 0.8347 London high through NY with a chain of lower highs. After London close it broke the 0.8320 Asian low and printed a 0.8307 session low, coinciding with Trump's Iran de-escalation headline trimming haven USD demand. RSI(14) sits near 28 and price trades below both EMAs, with the current bar holding just above the low.
Support: 0.83066, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.83205, 0.83361
What it said to watch
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 0.8321 Asian low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8307 session low exposes the 0.8300 round number
Close above the 0.8336 lower high breaks the lower-high line and the intraday downtrend read
17:16 UTC
Downtrend from London high, at session low · RSI 31 · price 0.83189
Lower highs since London peak; Asian range low broken.
USD/CHF reversed from the 0.8347 London high, setting lower highs at 0.8341 and 0.8336 under a falling trendline through NY hours. It has now broken the asian low near 0.8321 to a fresh session low at 0.8319, extending lower after Trump's Iran de-escalation headline in the last hour; RSI(14) near 31, ATR(14) about 5.6 pips.
Support: 0.8319, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.8321, 0.8336, 0.8347
What it said to watch
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 0.8321 asian low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8319 session low exposes the 0.8300 round number
Reclaim of the 0.8336 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the downtrend sequence; 38.2% of the London high fib sits near 0.8329
17:02 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since London · RSI 40 · price 0.8327
Lower highs under trendline, higher lows above NY low, compressing.
London broke above the Asian range to a 0.8347 London high before NY sold off to the 0.8321 NY low, just above the Asian low. The bounce stalled at the 0.8336 lower high near the 61.8% London-NY fib, and higher lows at 0.8324–0.8325 now compress price under the descending trendline. After London close, price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 0.83245, 0.83208
Resistance: 0.83361, 0.83465
What it said to watch
Break below the 0.8321 NY low (Asian low 0.8320) extends the lower-high sequence into a lower low
M15 close above the 0.8336 lower high and descending trendline neutralises the pullback, with the 0.8347 London high next
Loss of the 0.8324–0.8325 higher lows ends the compression read
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read via October hike pricing
London high at 0.8346, lower high at 0.8341 in NY, sharp mid-NY flush back to the Asian low, now mid-range.
London broke above the 0.8336 asian high to a 0.8346 london high but failed to hold. NY printed a lower high at 0.8341 before a mid-NY flush to the 0.8321 session low, back at the Asian range floor, after the firm claims print had briefly lifted the pair. Price is now pinned near the 50–61.8% retrace of that drop, the fix-time spike to the 0.8325 fix low was absorbed, and RSI(14) is neutral near 44.
Support: 0.8325, 0.83208
Resistance: 0.8336, 0.83408, 0.83465
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8321 session low confirms a lower-low below the Asian range
M15 close above the 0.8341 ny high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.8346 london high
Repeated rejection under the 0.8336 asian high keeps the NY drop fib capping the bounce
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read via October-hike pricing
16:32 UTC
Intraday range after failed London push, lower highs · RSI 45 · price 0.83326
London high 0.8347, NY lower high 0.8341, lows holding at 0.8321 asian low.
London ran to a 0.8347 london high. The claims beat (197K) lifted price only to a 0.8341 lower high before NY sold off to 0.8321, matching the asian low in a double-bottom shape that stays unconfirmed below 0.8347. The bounce is stalling at the 16:00 high of 0.8336, close to the 50% fib of the London-NY decline, with the 16:15 swing low at 0.8325 holding and price flat at EMA20.
Support: 0.8325, 0.83205
Resistance: 0.83361, 0.83408, 0.83465
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.8341 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 0.8347 london high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.8325 swing low and the 0.8321 asian low negates the double bottom and exposes the 0.8310 pivot
Rejection again at the 16:00 high of 0.8336 keeps the range read intact
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC on October hike odds could materially shift this read
Lower high off London top, double test of Asian low, V-recovery to 50% fib.
London ran to the 0.8346 London high on the hawkish-Fed and yields bid, then printed a lower high at 0.8341 before a sharp NY-session flush retested the Asian low at 0.8321, where demand held a second time. Price has since recovered to the 50% fib near 0.8333, flat at EMA20 with RSI(14) ~46, and is capped so far just under the Asian high at 0.8336.
Support: 0.8330, 0.8321
Resistance: 0.8336, 0.8341, 0.8346
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8330 swing low exposes the 0.8321 Asian low again
Break of the 0.8321 Asian low voids the double bottom read
Close above the 0.8336 Asian high and 0.8341 lower high reopens the 0.8346 London high
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC on October-hike odds could materially shift this read
16:03 UTC
Intraday range, recovering from NY dip · RSI 51 · price 0.83347
0.8321–0.8347 day range; NY swept Asian low and reclaimed it.
London lifted the pair through the Asian range to a 0.8347 high on firmer US yields. NY then dropped back to sweep the 0.8321 Asian low, and that dip was quickly reclaimed. Price sits just under the fib 61.8 at 0.8337 of the London high–NY low move, holding marginally above both EMAs, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 0.8330, 0.8321
Resistance: 0.8337, 0.8347, 0.8365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the fib 61.8 at 0.8337 and the 0.8347 London high puts the 0.8365 range top back in play
Loss of the 0.8330 pullback low and the NY recovery line reopens the 0.8321 Asian low
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift USD and this read
15:46 UTC
Intraday pullback, basing near Asian low · RSI 49 · price 0.83309
Lower highs from London peak, double low at 0.8321.
London lifted USD/CHF to a 0.8346 London high on firm US yields. NY then sold it back to a 0.8321 double low with the Asian low, and the late-NY bounce off a 0.8324 higher low is stalling at the 38.2% fib of the London-NY leg near 0.8331, under a lower-highs line through the 0.8341 NY high.
Support: 0.8324, 0.8321
Resistance: 0.8334, 0.8341, 0.8346
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8334 bounce high and the 50% fib reopens the 0.8341 NY high and the lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the 0.8324 higher low exposes the 0.8321 double low; a close below voids the double bottom
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could shift US yields and change this read
15:31 UTC
Intraday range, NY leg lower now pausing · RSI 45 · price 0.83303
Lower high at 0.8341 after London peak; NY drop held at Asian low.
London ran to a session high at 0.8347 and stalled well short of the 0.8365 range top as dollar support from yields faded. A lower high at 0.8341 then gave way in a sharp NY drop that held at 0.8321, level with the Asian low, and price is now back at the 38.2% fib near 0.8331. RSI(14) is near 45 and ATR is about 5.6 pips.
Support: 0.8324, 0.8321
Resistance: 0.8341, 0.8347, 0.8365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8321 Asian low breaks the intraday floor and confirms a lower low
Loss of the 0.8324 NY pivot leaves the Asian low exposed
Reclaim of the 0.8337 fib 50% and the 0.8341 NY high reopens the session high at 0.8347
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could shift USD and test the 0.8365 range top
15:16 UTC
Intraday down from London high, bounce stalling · RSI 40 · price 0.83278
NY reversal to Asian low, lower highs since London.
London extended the USD bid from the hawkish FOMC minutes to a 0.8346 london high, but a 12-pip NY bar unwound the move. The low at 0.8321 held just above the 0.8320 asian low, and the ny bounce has stalled at the 38.2% fib near 0.8331. A higher low sits at 0.8324, price is below both EMAs and RSI(14) is near 40.
Support: 0.8324, 0.8320
Resistance: 0.8331, 0.8337, 0.8346
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8320 asian low confirms a lower-low and opens the 0.8310 pivot
Failure to hold the 0.8324 higher low returns price to the asian low test
Recovery above the 0.8337 breakdown point and the lower highs line negates the NY reversal; london high at 0.8346 next
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read
15:02 UTC
Intraday pullback from session high, now basing · RSI 43 · price 0.83294
Failed break above prior high, lower highs, NY low holding Asian low.
London pushed through the prior-day high to a 0.83465 session high, but the break failed. A lower high at 0.83408 then gave way to a sharp NY-hours drop to 0.83208, which held just above the Asian low. Price has bounced to 0.8329, back inside the 0.8320–0.8336 Asian range and below the ema20, with the hawkish-minutes USD bid no longer producing fresh highs.
Support: 0.83205
Resistance: 0.83365, 0.83408, 0.83465
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.8320 asian low breaks the Asian range floor and extends the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 0.8336–0.8337 breakdown shelf (ema20 area) neutralises the NY sell-off
Lower highs trendline from the 0.83465 session high to the 0.83408 lower high caps the recovery while intact
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read via December hike pricing and US yields
14:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend from London high, bounce off Asian low · RSI 41 · price 0.83282
Lower highs since 0.83465 London high; NY sweep and rejection at Asian low.
London set a 0.83465 London high short of the 0.8365 range top, then printed lower highs. The NY sell-off around Kashkari's remarks broke the 0.8330 pullback low and swept the Asian low at 0.8320 before a sharp rejection back to 0.8328. Price sits below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 40, and the 38.2% fib of the London high–NY low leg sits at the 0.8330 pullback low.
Support: 0.83205
Resistance: 0.8330, 0.8336, 0.83465
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8330 pullback low reclaims the broken London structure; the 0.8336 asian high is next above
Lower highs trendline from the 0.83465 london high caps near 0.8340
Break and hold below the 0.8320 asian low turns the sweep into a fresh lower-low
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC and US yield moves could materially shift this read
14:31 UTC
Intraday pullback after London high, momentum turning lower · RSI 38 · price 0.83265
Lower highs from 0.8346; NY range 0.8330–0.8341 broken to the downside.
London's push to the 0.8346 session high faded into lower highs. The post-claims bounce stalled at the 0.8341 NY high. The 14:15 UTC bar then dropped 12 pips through the 0.8330 NY low to a 0.8325 drop low, back inside the Asian range and past the 61.8% of the Asia-London leg fib.
Support: 0.83253, 0.83204
Resistance: 0.83298, 0.83408, 0.83465
What it said to watch
Kashkari at 14:40 UTC and Musalem at 17:40 UTC could shift USD tone and this read
A hold below the 0.8330 NY low keeps the range break in force; reclaiming it reads as a false break
A break of the 0.8325 drop low exposes the 0.8320 Asian low, where the full Asia-London leg would be retraced
A close back above the lower highs trendline near 0.8341 negates the fade
14:16 UTC
Intraday up from Asia, stalling below London high · RSI 47 · price 0.83352
Lower high 0.8341 under 0.83465; higher low held at 0.8330.
London lifted the pair from the 0.8320 asian low to a 0.83465 london high, then faded. The pullback held the 0.8330 swing low near the 61.8% retrace and on rising lows; the claims beat lifted it to a 0.8341 NY high. Price is now pinned around EMA50 and below EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and the 0.8330–0.8341 band compressing.
Support: 0.8330, 0.8320
Resistance: 0.8341, 0.83465, 0.8365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8330 swing low breaks the rising lows and the 61.8% retrace, exposing the 0.8320 asian low
M15 close above the 0.8341 ny high reopens the 0.83465 london high, with the 0.8365 range top beyond
Fed's Kashkari at 14:40 UTC and Musalem at 17:40 UTC could shift the read if either pushes back on hike pricing
14:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalling, lower high in NY · RSI 46 · price 0.8335
Higher low above Asian low, lower high below session high; compressing 0.8330–0.8347.
London broke above the Asian range and ran to a 0.83465 session high on firm USD and US yields. The NY pullback held the 61.8% fib near the 0.83298 NY low, and the claims beat lifted price off it. The bounce then stalled at a lower high of 0.83408, leaving price on the EMA50 with RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 0.83298, 0.83204
Resistance: 0.83408, 0.83465, 0.8365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.83298 NY low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the Asian low at 0.83204
Close above the lower-high trendline and the 0.83465 session high reopens the 0.8365 range top
Fed's Kashkari at 14:40 UTC and Musalem at 17:40 UTC could shift USD and yields mid-NY session
13:31 UTC
Intraday up-leg, pausing below London high · RSI 49 · price 0.83383
London break of Asian range faded; NY higher low at 0.8330.
London cleared the 0.8320–0.8336 Asian range and the 0.8342 prior high on the SNB lower-for-longer read and firm yields, but the 0.83465 London high faded back to a 0.8330 pullback low near the 61.8% fib. NY has rebounded into a higher low above the rising support line and is capped near 0.8341 prior high, with RSI(14) neutral at 49.
Support: 0.8336, 0.8330, 0.8320
Resistance: 0.8341, 0.83465, 0.8365
What it said to watch
Fed's Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above 0.8341 prior high reopens the 0.83465 London high, with the 0.8365 range top beyond
Failure to hold the 0.8330 pullback low breaks the rising support line and the 61.8% fib
Loss of the 0.8336 Asian high puts the retest read in doubt and exposes the 0.8320 Asian low
London broke the Asian range high near 0.8336 on soft CHF after SNB's Martin signalled no policy change, running to the 0.8347 London high before fading to a 0.8330 pullback low at the 61.8% retracement. The claims beat lifted price to a 0.8341 NY high, met by rejection; price now sits on EMA20 with RSI(14) ~52, and the rising lows line from the Asian low remains intact.
Support: 0.8330, 0.8325, 0.8320
Resistance: 0.8341, 0.8347, 0.8365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8347 London high puts the 0.8365 range top in play
Failure to hold the 0.8330 pullback low exposes the rising lows line and the 0.8320 Asian low
Fed's Kashkari (14:40 UTC) and Musalem (17:40 UTC) could shift this read via US yields
Asian range broken higher in London; higher low at 0.83298 holding.
London broke the Asian high at 0.8336 and the prior high at 0.83417, topping at 0.83465 (london high). A run of lower highs then pulled price back to 0.83298 (ny low), near the 61.8% fib retracement of the rally from the Asian low. The rebound off that low came with the 12:30 UTC jobless claims release and has reclaimed the Asian high, with RSI(14) near 49, while SNB lower-for-longer signals keep CHF soft.
Support: 0.8336, 0.83298, 0.83204
Resistance: 0.83417, 0.83465, 0.8365
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.83465 london high reopens the path toward the 0.8365 range top
Close back below 0.8336 asian high returns price inside the Asian range
Break below the 0.83298 ny low snaps the higher-low trendline and exposes the 0.83204 asian low
Fed's Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could shift the read via US yields
12:46 UTC
Intraday higher lows, momentum neutral after London fade · RSI 49 · price 0.83368
London false break above prior high, pullback held 61.8%, price back above Asian high.
London broke the Asian high and the prior high at 0.8342, peaking at a session high of 0.83465 before fading. The pullback low at 0.8330 sits on the 61.8% fib of the Asian-low rally and on rising support. Price is now back above the Asian high in early NY after US jobless claims, with SNB lower-for-longer and firm US yields keeping the pair near the 0.8365–0.8380 cap.
Support: 0.8336, 0.8330, 0.8320
Resistance: 0.8342, 0.83465, 0.8380
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.8342 prior high reopens the 0.83465 session high and the 0.8380 17m high
A break of the 0.8330 pullback low and rising support exposes the 0.8320 Asian low
Losing the 0.8336 Asian high again turns the early-NY retest into a rejection
Claims actual is not yet in the feed; Kashkari at 14:40 UTC and Musalem at 17:40 UTC could shift the read
12:31 UTC
Intraday fade after London high · RSI 39 · price 0.83324
Lower highs from 0.8347, back inside Asian range.
London cleared the asian high at 0.8336 and the prior high at 0.8342 on firm US yields, but the session high at 0.8347 was rejected well short of the 0.8365 cap. Since then the pair has printed a lower-high trendline into a 0.8330 midday low, back inside the Asian range and sitting between the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement of the London leg. RSI(14) is near 39 and price is below both EMAs.
Support: 0.83298, 0.83264, 0.83204
Resistance: 0.8336, 0.83417, 0.83465
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC lands on the current bar and could reset the range quickly. Kashkari follows at 14:40 UTC.
An M15 close back above the asian high at 0.8336 and the lower-high trendline would neutralise the fade.
Failure to hold the 0.8330 midday low exposes the london low at 0.8326, then the asian low at 0.8320.
A reclaim of the prior high at 0.8342 would put the 0.8347 session high back in focus.
12:16 UTC
Intraday pullback after London breakout · RSI 44 · price 0.83339
Lower highs off 0.8346 session high, retesting Asian range top.
London lifted USDCHF out of the 0.8320–0.8336 Asian range to a 0.8346 session high, helped by firm US yields and SNB lower-for-longer talk. Since then a chain of lower highs near 0.8339 has pulled price back to the 61.8% fib of the London rally around 0.8333. RSI(14) is near 44 and price is under EMA20 but sitting on EMA50.
Support: 0.8333, 0.8326, 0.8320
Resistance: 0.8339, 0.8346, 0.8365
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, minutes away, could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.8326 london low puts the 0.8320 asian low back in play and voids the breakout
Close above the 0.8339 lower highs line and the 0.8346 session high reopens the 0.8365 range top
12:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 47 · price 0.83365
London breakout above Asian range, retest of breakout zone holding.
London cleared the Asian range high (0.8336) and the 0.8342 prior high on USD demand after the hawkish FOMC minutes and SNB's Martin holding at 0%. Price topped at the 0.8346 session high, then pulled back into the 38.2–50% fib, where three tests of the 0.8334 pullback low have held. RSI(14) has cooled to 47 and price sits just under EMA20.
Support: 0.8334, 0.8330, 0.8320
Resistance: 0.8342, 0.8346, 0.8365
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and the NY open could materially shift this read; Kashkari at 14:40 UTC follows
M15 close below the 0.8334 pullback low and the rising trendline exposes the london base at 0.8330 (61.8% fib)
Failure at 0.8330 puts the asian low at 0.8320 back in play and negates the breakout
Reclaim of the 0.8342 prior high reopens the 0.8346 session high, with the 0.8365 range top above
11:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalling, lower highs since London peak · RSI 47 · price 0.83348
London false break above prior high, now fading back into the Asian range.
London lifted USD/CHF out of the 0.8320–0.8336 Asian range on the hawkish-FOMC and SNB lower-for-longer theme. Price cleared yesterday's 0.8342 prior high to a 0.8347 session high, then failed to hold above it. Lower highs since 09:15 UTC have dragged price back below the Asian high to test the 0.8334 swing low, with RSI(14) neutral at 47 and ATR near 4 pips.
Support: 0.8334, 0.8330, 0.8326
Resistance: 0.8336, 0.8342, 0.8347
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) and Fed's Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 0.8334 swing low exposes the fib 61.8 at 0.8330, then the rising trendline and london low near 0.8326
Reclaiming the 0.8336 asian high and the 0.8342 prior high puts the 0.8347 session high back in play and negates the false-break read
11:16 UTC
Intraday up-leg, pulling back · RSI 51 · price 0.83349
London broke out of the Asian range, now fading with lower highs into a retest of the range top.
London lifted USD/CHF out of the 0.8320–0.8335 Asian range and through yesterday's 0.8342 prior high to a 0.8347 session high, helped by firm US yields after the hawkish FOMC minutes. The extension was rejected, with lower highs since 09:15 UTC along the pullback line. Price is now back at the 0.8335 Asian high, near the 61.8% retrace of the London leg, with RSI(14) neutral at about 51.
Support: 0.8335, 0.8326, 0.8320
Resistance: 0.8342, 0.8347, 0.8365
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8335 asian high (61.8% of the London leg) exposes the 0.8326 london base and the 0.8320 asian low
Recovery above the 0.8342 prior high and the pullback line reopens the 0.8347 session high, with the 0.8365 range top above
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC fall in the first hours of NY and could materially shift this read
11:02 UTC
Intraday up, pulling back from session high · RSI 51 · price 0.83367
London breakout above Asian range, lower highs on the pullback.
London cleared the Asian high at 0.8336 and the prior high at 0.8342, but supply capped the move at the 0.8347 session high, near the 0.8345 intraday cap. The pullback has printed lower highs back into a retest of the Asian high, which sits at the 38.2% fib of the Asian low to session high leg. RSI(14) is neutral near 51 and EMA20 has flattened just overhead, with hawkish-FOMC USD demand still offset by CHF haven buying.
Support: 0.8336, 0.83264, 0.83204
Resistance: 0.83417, 0.83465, 0.8365
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.8336 asian high puts price back inside the Asian range and exposes the 0.8326 london low
Loss of the 0.8326 london low breaks the rising trendline from the 0.8320 asian low
Reclaim of the 0.8342 prior high reopens the 0.8347 session high, with the 0.8365 range top above
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
10:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 56 · price 0.83375
Higher lows from the 0.8320 Asian low; London breakout above the Asian high now being retested.
London cleared the Asian high and yesterday's prior high at 0.8342 to print a 0.8347 session high, with USD still supported after the hawkish FOMC minutes. Price has since faded back into the 0.8335 Asian high area, near the 38.2% fib of the rise from the 0.8320 Asian low. It sits flat on EMA20, while the rising lows from the Asian session remain intact.
Support: 0.83351, 0.83264, 0.83204
Resistance: 0.83417, 0.83465
What it said to watch
A close below 0.8335 (Asian high) and the 50% fib near 0.8333 puts the rising lows and the 0.8326 ldn open low in play
Reclaiming 0.8342 prior high reopens the 0.8347 session high
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K), then Kashkari at 14:40 UTC, could materially shift this read
Risk-off headlines tend to revive the CHF haven bid and have capped USD/CHF rallies near this zone
10:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 58 · price 0.83379
London broke Asian range high, now retesting it.
London cleared the 0.8320–0.8335 Asian range and yesterday's prior high at 0.8342 to print a session high at 0.83465, with a firm USD after the hawkish FOMC minutes keeping the pair bid. Price has since slipped back below 0.8342 to 0.8338, sitting near the 38.2% fib of the London leg and just above EMA20, with the asian high at 0.8335 the first retest zone.
Support: 0.8335, 0.83303, 0.83204
Resistance: 0.83417, 0.83465
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8335 asian high and the 0.8330 swing low breaks the London higher-low chain and turns the breakout into a false break
Recovery and hold above the 0.8342 prior high puts the 0.83465 session high back in play, with 0.8365 range top beyond
Loss of rising support from the 0.8320 asian low reopens the full Asian range
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
10:16 UTC
Uptrend, extended into mid-London · RSI 69 · price 0.83437
Higher-high/higher-low chain since London open; Asian range and prior-day high broken.
London broke the Asian high at 0.8336 and yesterday's 0.8342 prior high, printing a 0.8347 session high as hawkish FOMC minutes and firm yields kept USD bid. The pullback to 0.8340 held around the old prior high and the higher-low chain along the London trendline is intact, with RSI(14) cooling from the low 70s to near 69.
Support: 0.8342, 0.8336, 0.83264
Resistance: 0.83465, 0.8365
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8342 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the London trendline and the 0.8336 asian high (near the 50% fib of the Asian low to session high) breaks the HL chain; the 0.8326 london low sits below
Close above the 0.8347 session high puts the 0.8365 range top in focus
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off Asian low; London break of Asian high and prior-day high, now retesting.
Mid-London, USDCHF broke the Asian high at 0.8336 and the prior-day high at 0.8342 on the firm USD after hawkish FOMC minutes. It printed a session high at 0.83465. The pullback low at 0.8340 held just above the 38.2% rally fib and the rally trendline, with RSI(14) cooled to ~62.
Support: 0.83398, 0.8336, 0.83264
Resistance: 0.83465, 0.8365, 0.8382
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8340 pullback low and the rally trendline exposes the Asian high at 0.8336 and the 50–61.8% fib zone
Clearance of the 0.83465 session high puts the 0.8365 range top, then the 0.8382 16m high, in view
Failure back under 0.83264, the rally base, unwinds the London breakout
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read in the NY session
HH/HL chain since London open; Asian range and prior high broken higher.
London cleared the 0.8336 Asian high and the 0.8342 prior high, printing a 0.83465 session high. The USD bid tracks the hawkish FOMC minutes and firm yields. The London leg is a clean higher-low chain off the 0.8329 London low, with RSI(14) easing from the high 60s as price holds just above the broken prior high.
Support: 0.83417, 0.8336, 0.83292
Resistance: 0.83465, 0.8365, 0.8382
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 0.8342 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of 0.8336 Asian high and the London HL trendline returns price to the Asian range
Clearance of the 0.83465 session high opens the 0.8365 range top, then the 0.8382 16m high
Break of the 0.8329 London low unwinds the London leg
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) and Kashkari 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
London lifted price out of the 0.8320–0.8334 Asian range and through yesterday's prior high at 0.8342, printing a session high at 0.8347 on a clean HH/HL chain along the London trendline. The London leg runs from the 0.8326 London low and tracks the firm USD and high-yield tone. RSI(14) near 70 is hot but not stretched, with the range top at 0.8365 the next level overhead.
Support: 0.83417, 0.83344, 0.83264
Resistance: 0.83465, 0.8365, 0.8382
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.8342 prior high puts the breakout at risk and reopens the 0.8334 Asian high.
A close below the London trendline breaks the HL chain; the 0.8326 London low is the base of the London leg.
The 0.8365 range top and the 0.8382 16m high are the next areas to watch for rejection or break.
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read.
HH/HL chain through London; Asian range and prior high broken.
Mid-London, USDCHF cleared the Asian high at 0.8334 and yesterday's 0.8342 prior high, printing a session high at 0.8345 along a rising trendline of higher lows from 06:15 UTC. RSI(14) near 67 is warm but not stretched, and the move tracks the firm USD after the hawkish FOMC minutes and near-5.30% 10y yields.
Support: 0.83417, 0.83344, 0.83204
Resistance: 0.83448, 0.8365
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8342 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the London trendline and the 0.8334 Asian high puts the 0.8320 Asian low back in view
Extension above the session high leaves the 0.8365 range top as the next reference
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and Kashkari 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
08:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since Asia · RSI 67 · price 0.83401
London broke above the Asian range high; price testing the prior high at 0.8342.
Early London cleared the Asian high at 0.8336 and ran into yesterday's NY-session prior high at 0.8342, with a higher-lows chain intact from the 0.8320 Asian low. USD remains firm on hawkish FOMC minutes and multi-decade-high Treasury yields, and RSI(14) at 67 is warm but not stretched.
Support: 0.8336, 0.8330, 0.83204
Resistance: 0.83417, 0.8365, 0.8380
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8342 prior high opens the 0.8365 range top, then the 0.8380 16-month high
Slip back below the 0.8336 Asian high puts price back inside the overnight range, with the 0.8330 London low and the 0.8331 fib 50% of the Asia-London leg next
Break of the higher-lows trendline and the 0.8320 Asian low negates the intraday uptrend read
Waller fallout, then US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 0.8320 Asian low, capped at 0.8337 London high.
London open pushed marginally above the 0.8336 Asian high but stalled twice at 0.8337, the London high, still below yesterday's 0.8342 prior high. Higher lows at the 0.8320 Asian low and the 0.8326 higher low keep the rising trendline intact. Price is pinned near the 0.8330 pivot as USD support from the hawkish FOMC minutes and 5.3% 10y yields meets CHF haven demand.
Support: 0.8330, 0.83264, 0.83204
Resistance: 0.8337, 0.83417
What it said to watch
Waller at 08:30 UTC could break the stall at the 0.8337 London high in either direction
M15 close above the 0.8342 prior high clears the range cap and opens the path to the 0.8365 band top
Loss of the 0.8326 higher low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 0.8320 Asian low
Sustained trade below the 0.8330 pivot turns London's push into a rejection of the Asian high
US initial claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) land in the first hour of NY and could reset the session range
London open briefly poked above the Asian high to a london high at 0.8337 and was rejected. Price is back near 0.8332, holding the higher-lows chain off the 0.8320 asian low. Hawkish-minutes USD support and the CHF haven bid keep the pair pinned in a tight band, with RSI(14) neutral at 55 and ATR near 4 pips.
Support: 0.83264, 0.83204
Resistance: 0.8337, 0.83417
What it said to watch
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could break this 0.8320–0.8337 range in either direction
M15 close above the 0.8337 london high exposes yesterday's prior high at 0.8342
Loss of the 0.8326 swing low, which sits at the 61.8% fib, breaks the higher-lows trendline
Close below the 0.8320 asian low flips intraday structure to lower lows
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) is the next scheduled volatility point
Higher-low sequence off the Asian low, capped near 0.8336–0.8337.
London open probed just above the Asian range high to a 0.8337 session high before easing to 0.8333. Higher lows have held since the 0.8320 Asian low, the latest swing low at 0.8326, as the hawkish-Fed, high-yield USD bid holds. Price sits inside yesterday's 0.8317 prior low to 0.8342 prior high band.
Support: 0.83264, 0.83204, 0.83168
Resistance: 0.8337, 0.83417
What it said to watch
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could break the 0.8337 session high or the 0.8326 swing low
M15 close above the 0.8342 prior high takes price out of yesterday's range
Loss of the 0.8326 swing low and the rising trendline exposes the 0.8320 Asian low, then the 0.8317 prior low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) are the next scheduled risk for this read
Asian range 0.8320–0.8336 intact; London trading inside it.
Early London is still inside the Asian range (0.8320–0.8336). Upper wicks into the 0.8336 asian high were rejected at and after the London open, while lows on a rising trendline stepped up from the 0.8320 asian low to the 0.8326 london low. Firm USD on post-minutes yields is keeping dips shallow, but the range top still caps.
Support: 0.8326, 0.8320, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.8336, 0.8342
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8336 asian high opens the 0.8342 prior high (yesterday's NY peak)
Break of the 0.8326 london low and the rising trendline returns focus to the 0.8320 asian low, then the 0.8317 prior low
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:16 UTC
Flat, range-bound around 0.8330 · RSI 54 · price 0.83302
Inside 0.8320–0.8336 Asian range, higher low at 0.8326.
Early London is trading mid-way through the 0.8320–0.8336 Asian range. The London open spike to 0.8335 was rejected beneath the asian high, while the 61.8% fib of the Asian rally at 0.8326 held twice. Price is pinned to the flat EMA20/50 cluster near 0.8330 as USD consolidates after the hawkish FOMC minutes.
Support: 0.83264, 0.83204, 0.83168
Resistance: 0.8336, 0.83417
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8336 asian high breaks the range and exposes the 0.8342 prior high
Failure to hold the 0.8326 61.8% fib reopens the 0.8320 asian low, with the 0.8317 prior low below
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could shift this read
07:02 UTC
Sideways, contracting range · RSI 57 · price 0.83303
Lower highs from 0.83417 and rising lows from 0.83168; price compressing near the midpoint.
London open finds USDCHF at 0.8330, inside the Asian range of 0.83204–0.83360. The pre-London push to the 0.83360 Asian high was rejected, and demand held the 0.83264 swing low. Lower highs off the 0.83417 prior high and rising lows from the 0.83168 prior low have tightened the range, reflecting the USD bid from hawkish minutes running into CHF haven demand.
Support: 0.83264, 0.83204, 0.83168
Resistance: 0.8336, 0.83417
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.83360 Asian high breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the 0.83417 prior high
Failure to hold the 0.83264 swing low breaks the rising-lows line and reopens the 0.83204 Asian low, then the 0.83168 prior low
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could break the compression either way
06:46 UTC
Sideways, Asia range with fading upside · RSI 41 · price 0.83275
Asian range 0.8320–0.8336 inside a 24h 0.8317–0.8342 band; top rejected late Asia.
Late-Asia push to the 0.8336 asian high was rejected near the 0.8335 cap flagged in the CHF digest. Price has slipped back to the 61.8% retrace of the Asian leg, testing the 0.8326 swing low with London open next. The USD bid from hawkish FOMC minutes has not carried the pair through that cap. RSI(14) sits near 41 and ATR(14) is about 3.3 pips, so moves are compressed.
Support: 0.8326, 0.83204, 0.83168
Resistance: 0.8336, 0.83417
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.8326 swing low exposes the 0.8320 asian low, then the 0.8317 prior low
A London break above the 0.8336 asian high reopens the 0.8342 prior high
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could break the range
Holding the 61.8% fib keeps the Asian range intact
24h range 0.8317–0.8342; Asia higher lows off 0.8320.
USD/CHF has stayed in a 0.8317–0.8342 range for 24h, with the yield-driven USD bid offset by haven demand for the franc. Asia printed higher lows off the 0.8320 asia low, and the pre-London push to the 0.8336 session high was rejected. The 06:15 UTC wick to the 0.8327 higher low was bought back. RSI(14) is flat near 52 and ATR is about 3 pips into the London open.
Support: 0.83268, 0.83204, 0.83168
Resistance: 0.8336, 0.83417
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8336 session high exposes the 0.8342 prior high, the top of the 24h range
Break of the 0.8327 higher low and the Asia rising line puts the 0.8320 asia low back in play
Loss of the 0.8317 prior low breaks the 24h range to the downside
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could shift this read
06:16 UTC
Intraday range, higher lows since Asia · RSI 55 · price 0.83329
Higher lows off 0.8320 Asian low, capped below 0.8342 prior high.
Asia held a 0.8320–0.8334 band after the hawkish Fed Minutes. Ahead of London open, price set a session high at 0.8336, just above the Asian high, before a mild rejection. Higher lows along the rising trendline from the Asian low keep the pair inside yesterday's 0.8317 prior low to 0.8342 prior high range, with franc haven demand offsetting high US yields.
Support: 0.8326, 0.8320, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.8336, 0.8342, 0.8365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8342 prior high breaks the 24h range and puts the 0.8365 range top in view
Loss of the 0.8326 higher low and the rising trendline returns focus to the 0.8320 Asian low and 0.8317 prior low
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
24h range 0.8317–0.8342; Asia higher lows off 0.8320.
Late Asia, ahead of London open: price is pressing the asian high at 0.8335 after a higher low at 0.8326 off the 0.8320 asian low. The broader 24h range stays intact between the prior-day lo at 0.8317 and the prior-day hi at 0.8342. The NY rally to that high faded as USD drifted lower after the hawkish Fed Minutes, and M15 ranges are compressed with ATR(14) near 3 pips.
Support: 0.8326, 0.8320, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.8335, 0.8342
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8335 asian high opens the 0.8342 prior-day hi, then the 0.8365 range top
Break below the 0.8326 higher low and the asian hl line returns focus to the 0.8320 asian low and 0.8317 prior-day lo
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could break the range compression
Higher low at 0.8326 inside Asian range, below the range top.
Asia dipped to the 0.8320 asian low, then the Asian rally to 0.8334 left a higher low at 0.8326 (about 60% of the leg). Price is pressing the asian high just before London open, still inside yesterday's 0.8317 prior low to 0.8342 prior high range. USD is holding firm after the hawkish FOMC Minutes, and ATR(14) near 3 pips shows how quiet the session has been.
Support: 0.8326, 0.83204, 0.83168
Resistance: 0.83344, 0.83417
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8334 asian high exposes the 0.8342 prior high
Failure to hold the 0.8326 higher low breaks the Asian rally trendline and reopens the 0.8320 asian low
A break of the 0.8317 prior low would end the range read
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could expand the range
05:31 UTC
Sideways, mild upward drift in Asia · RSI 57 · price 0.83306
Inside prior-day range, higher low above Asian low.
Asia session dipped to the 0.8320 asian low, then rebounded to a 0.8334 asian high. The pullback set a higher low at 0.8326, close to the 61.8% fib, and price now sits at 0.8331 ahead of London open, still inside yesterday's 0.8317–0.8342 range. Hawkish-Fed USD support is offsetting a firmer franc, keeping ATR near 3 pips.
Support: 0.8326, 0.83204, 0.83168
Resistance: 0.83344, 0.83417
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8334 asian high opens the 0.8342 prior high
Break below the 0.8326 higher low exposes the 0.8320 asian low and 0.8317 prior low
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could break the range read
05:16 UTC
Sideways, no directional momentum · RSI 53 · price 0.83284
Range; late Asia trading mid-way inside a 0.8320–0.8334 Asian range, nested in the 0.8317–0.8342 prior-day range.
Late Asia session: the dip to the asian low at 0.8320 was bought back to the asian high at 0.8334. Price is now holding the 0.8326 swing low near the 50% of that asian swing, flat on the EMAs. Yesterday's 0.8317 day low to 0.8342 day high band still contains everything, with hawkish-Fed USD support offset by CHF haven demand.
Support: 0.8326, 0.8320, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.8334, 0.8342
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8334 asian high puts the 0.8342 day high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.8326 swing low exposes the 0.8320 asian low, then the 0.8317 day low
London open in under 2h typically sets the first break of the asian range
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
05:03 UTC
Sideways, compressing · RSI 54 · price 0.8329
Converging range: rising lows vs lower highs.
Late Asia session, price coiling mid-Asian range at 0.8329. Rising lows run from the 0.8317 prior low to the 0.8320 Asian low, and lower highs step down from the 0.8342 prior high to the 0.8334 Asian high. USD is holding firm after the hawkish FOMC minutes, but there is no break yet; RSI(14) is neutral near 54 and ATR is about 3 pips.
Support: 0.8320, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.8334, 0.8342
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8334 asian high breaks the lower highs line; the 0.8342 prior high is next
Failure at the 0.8320 asian low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 0.8317 prior low
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could resolve the compression
04:46 UTC
Sideways, no directional momentum · RSI 49 · price 0.83289
Asian range 0.8320–0.8334 nested inside the prior day's 0.8317–0.8342 range.
Late Asia session: USD/CHF is chopping mid-range near 0.8329. A dip to the 0.8320 Asian low was bought back to the 0.8334 Asian high, then faded to a 0.8326 swing low, and RSI(14) sits neutral at 49. Firm USD on hawkish FOMC minutes and multi-decade-high yields has yet to break the prior day's 0.8317–0.8342 range.
Support: 0.8326, 0.83204, 0.83168
Resistance: 0.83344, 0.83417
What it said to watch
Loss of the 0.8326 swing low reopens the 0.8320 Asian low, then the 0.8317 prior low
A close above the 0.8334 Asian high puts the 0.8342 prior high in play. A break there ends the range read
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read after London open
04:32 UTC
Sideways, flat EMAs · RSI 49 · price 0.83289
0.8317–0.8342 range; rising lows along the range floor, mid-range inside Asian range.
Late Asia session: price swung from the 0.8320 asian low to the 0.8334 asian high, where a rejection pushed it back to 0.8329 above the 0.8326 pullback low, pinned between flat EMA20 and EMA50. Yesterday's 0.8317 prior low to 0.8342 prior high range is intact despite firm USD after the hawkish FOMC minutes. Demand has stepped in three times along a rising range floor.
Support: 0.8326, 0.8320, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.8334, 0.8342
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8334 asian high opens the 0.8342 prior high
Break of the 0.8326 pullback low puts the 0.8320 asian low back in play
Failure to hold the range floor at 0.8317–0.8320 ends the range read
Fed's Waller 08:30 UTC (London session) and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:16 UTC
Sideways, no directional momentum · RSI 47 · price 0.8328
Inside prior-day range; Asian high rejected, swing fully retraced.
Late Asia session is holding inside yesterday's 0.8317–0.8342 range (prior low to prior high). An early dip to the 0.8320 Asian low drew a 14-pip rebound to the 0.8334 Asian high, which was rejected and faded back to 0.8328, near the 61.8% of the Asian swing. Price sits flat on EMA20 with RSI(14) at 47, so no directional structure is in play ahead of London open, even with USD firm on 24-year-high yields and the hawkish FOMC minutes.
Support: 0.8320, 0.8317
Resistance: 0.8334, 0.8342
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8334 Asian high reopens the 0.8342 prior high
Loss of the 0.8320 Asian low exposes the 0.8317 prior low
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could break the range
USDCHF is boxed between yesterday's 0.8317 prior low and 0.8342 prior high. The late-Asia push was rejected at the 0.8334 Asian high, and price is back near the 50% fib of that swing, mid-way inside the 0.8320–0.8334 Asian range. Highs have stepped lower since 0.8342 while lows hold near 0.8318–0.8320. USD stays firm after the hawkish FOMC minutes but is not extending here.
Support: 0.8320, 0.83168
Resistance: 0.83344, 0.83417
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8320 Asian low exposes the 0.8317 prior low and the range floor
M15 close above the 0.8334 Asian high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.8342 prior high
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could break the range either way
Late Asia session dipped below the Asian range to a 0.83204 session low, then V-reversed to a 0.83344 session high. The dip was a false break. Rising support from the 0.83168 prior low and lower highs from the 0.83417 yday high keep the 24h structure compressing ahead of London, with broad USD demand on firm yields underpinning the Asia rebound.
Support: 0.8329, 0.83204, 0.83168
Resistance: 0.83344, 0.83372, 0.83417
What it said to watch
Holding 0.83290 intraday sup keeps the Asia rebound intact; losing it reopens the 0.83204 session low
A close above the 0.83372 late-NY high breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 0.83417 yday high
A break of rising support and the 0.83168 prior low ends the higher-low read
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Late Asia: USD/CHF dipped to the 0.8320 asian low, then rebounded 14 pips through the Asian range top to 0.8334. Price now sits at the 61.8% retrace of the 0.8342 prior high to 0.8320 drop, inside the 0.8317–0.8342 range. Lows have edged higher (0.8317, 0.8318, 0.8320) along a rising lows line as USD holds firm on hawkish Fed pricing and the 5.35% 10y yield.
Support: 0.8329, 0.83204, 0.83168
Resistance: 0.83344, 0.83389, 0.83417
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8334 asian high exposes the 0.8339 range cap and 0.8342 prior high
Slip back below the 0.8329 asian base returns price to the Asian range and voids the breakout
Break of the 0.8320 asian low and the rising lows line reopens the 0.8317 prior low
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
Range 0.8317–0.8342; Asia flush to 0.8320 rejected with a V-shaped rebound.
The Asia session dipped to the asia low at 0.8320, was rejected there and snapped back to 0.8330. That rebound retraces about 80% of the Asia drop fib and leaves price sitting on EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral near 54. The broader picture is still a two-way range between yesterday's prior low at 0.8317 and prior high at 0.8342, with the asia high at 0.8332 capping, in line with the firm-USD but range-bound CHF read after the hawkish FOMC minutes.
Support: 0.8320, 0.83168
Resistance: 0.83323, 0.83417
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asia high at 0.8332 opens the prior high at 0.8342
Failure back below the asia low at 0.8320 exposes the prior low at 0.8317 and ends the rebound read
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower; price retesting the old floor from below.
Late Asia session broke below the 0.8327–0.8332 Asian range, dipped to an asia low of 0.8320 as the dollar eased, then bounced back to the old asian floor near 0.8327, about a 50% retrace of the move. Prior-day trade held 0.8317–0.8342, and buyers stepped in twice at the 0.8317 swing low during London and NY hours.
Support: 0.83204, 0.83168
Resistance: 0.83269, 0.83323, 0.83417
What it said to watch
Rejection at the asian floor 0.8327 keeps the break lower intact; a reclaim back into the range reopens the asian top at 0.8332
Failure to hold the 0.8320 asia low exposes the 0.8317 swing low
Close above the 0.8342 prior high would end the range read
Fed's Waller 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia broke below its early range floor; price holding just above the 0.8320 low inside the 24h 0.8317–0.8342 range.
From 01:30 UTC, Asia session broke the 0.8326 range floor and printed a 0.8320 asia low. RSI(14) sits at 37 and highs have stepped lower from yesterday's 0.8342 24h high. Price is now in the lower half of the 24h range, with the 0.8317 prior low next below, where demand stepped in twice during London and NY hours yesterday.
Support: 0.83204, 0.83168
Resistance: 0.83265, 0.83323, 0.83417
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 0.8326 range floor turns the Asia break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8320 asia low exposes the 0.8317 prior low
M15 close above the 0.8332 asia high breaks the lower-highs trendline from the 24h high
Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower, pressing yesterday's lows.
Late Asia broke below the 0.8326–0.8332 Asian range and is pressing the 0.8317–0.8319 prior low cluster, which held three times through London and NY yesterday. Lower highs have stacked from the 0.8342 prior high despite the firm USD tone after the Fed minutes. RSI(14) near 33, not yet oversold.
Support: 0.8317, 0.8300
Resistance: 0.8326, 0.8332, 0.8342
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.8317 prior low breaks yesterday's floor and exposes the 0.8300 round number
Recovery back above 0.8326 asian low turns the break into a false break; 0.8332 asian high caps above
Close above the lower-highs trendline from 0.8342 invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Waller speech at 08:30 UTC could reprice US yields and shift this read
02:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since NY high · RSI 35 · price 0.83228
Asian range broken lower, lower-high chain intact.
Early Asia session broke the Asian low at 0.83262 into 0.83218, extending the lower-high sequence from yesterday's 0.83417 NY high. RSI(14) is near 35 and ATR is compressed at about 3 pips. Price now sits just above the 0.83194 london low and the 0.83168 day low, with USD tracking long-end yields.
Support: 0.83194, 0.83168
Resistance: 0.83262, 0.83318
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.83262 asian low would mark the range break as a false break.
A break of the 0.83168 day low extends the lower-low sequence beyond yesterday's range.
The lower-highs trendline near 0.8330 and the 0.83318 asian high (50% of the NY high retrace) cap any recovery.
Waller at 08:30 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could expand range well beyond the current ATR.
Lower highs inside Asian range, testing range floor.
Early Asia session is printing lower highs off the 0.8332 asian high after a rollover gap. Price has slipped under the 0.8327 fib 61.8 of the NY rally to a fresh session low at 0.8325, with RSI(14) near 40 and ATR about 2.7 pips. The broad USD bid from the minutes and yields is not showing up in this tape; the 0.8317 day low is the next reference below.
Support: 0.83251, 0.83168
Resistance: 0.83272, 0.83323, 0.83417
What it said to watch
Recovery back above the 0.8327 fib 61.8 would mark the dip under the Asian range as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8325 session low opens the 0.8317 day low from London hours
M15 close above the 0.8332 asian high negates the lower-high sequence; the 0.8342 day high caps above that
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight Asian range under a falling NY trendline, flat lows near 0.8326.
Early Asia session is boxed in a 6-pip band between the 0.8326 asian low and the 0.8332 asian high. Price sits just under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 49. Highs have stepped lower from the 0.8342 prior high to the 0.8337 late NY high and into the asian high along the falling trendline, while the 0.8326 floor matches the NY-afternoon low. USD held firm after the hawkish FOMC minutes, but intraday follow-through has stalled.
Support: 0.83262, 0.83182
Resistance: 0.83323, 0.83372, 0.83417
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8332 asian high and the falling trendline opens 0.8337 late NY high, then 0.8342 prior high
Failure to hold the 0.8326 asian low exposes the 0.8318 ny low
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC, in London hours, could break the compression; Initial Claims follow at 12:30 UTC
01:16 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 50 · price 0.83294
Tight Asian range in the middle of yesterday's 0.8317–0.8342 range.
Late Asia session is holding a tight 0.8326–0.8332 band after the rollover gap down from 0.8334, with price parked at the 50% retrace of the NY leg (0.8318–0.8342) and flat on EMA20. The late-NY swing high at 0.8337 caps the upside inside a day range bracketed by the prior high at 0.8342 and the prior low at 0.8317. RSI(14) sits near 50 and ATR(14) is under 3 pips; no setup is in play.
Support: 0.83262, 0.83168
Resistance: 0.83323, 0.83372, 0.83417
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the asian low at 0.8326, beneath the 61.8% NY leg fib at 0.8327, opens the path to the prior low at 0.8317
An M15 close above the asian high at 0.8332 brings the swing high at 0.8337 and the prior high at 0.8342 back into play
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Initial Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:03 UTC
Flat, two-way intraday range · RSI 46 · price 0.83292
Tight Asian range 0.8326–0.8332 inside the 0.8318–0.8342 day range.
USD/CHF gapped about 4 pips lower at the rollover and has since held a 6-pip Asian range of 0.8326–0.8332. It is sitting on the 50% retrace of the NY swing fib from the 0.8318 swing low to the 0.8342 day high. Wednesday trade stayed two-way despite the USD-supportive minutes and the weak 10y auction: demand held the 0.8318 swing low twice, while supply faded the late NY high at 0.8337 into the close.
Support: 0.83262, 0.83182
Resistance: 0.83323, 0.83372, 0.83417
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asian low at 0.8326 breaks the 61.8% of the NY swing fib and exposes the 0.8318 swing low
Close above the asian high at 0.8332 brings the late NY high at 0.8337 and the 0.8342 day high back into view
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC, early London session, could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 46 · price 0.83284
24h range 0.8317–0.8342; Asia compressing below lower highs.
Hawkish FOMC minutes lifted the pair from 0.8327 to a 0.8337 minutes high late in NY hours. The move faded into the rollover, leaving a series of lower highs under the 0.8342 day high. Asia is now coiling in a 0.8327–0.8332 range (asian low to asian high) near the 50% retrace of the London low–NY high swing, below both EMAs, with ATR(14) near 3 pips.
Support: 0.83265, 0.83185, 0.83168
Resistance: 0.83323, 0.83372, 0.83417
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8332 asian high and the lower-highs line reopens the 0.8337 minutes high and the 0.8342 day high
Failure to hold the 0.8327 asian low exposes the 0.8319 ny low and 0.8317 london low, the floor of the 24h range
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could break the Asian range either way and shift this read
00:31 UTC
Sideways, momentum neutral after NY fade · RSI 44 · price 0.83293
Tight Asian range inside a broad 0.8317–0.8342 prior-day range, lower highs since NY peak.
The Asia session is holding a 6-pip range between the 0.8327 asian low and 0.8332 asian high after the rollover gap lower, with price parked on the 50% retrace of the NY rally from 0.8318 to 0.8342. Wednesday's day low near 0.8317 was tested three times while lower highs formed off the 0.8342 day high after the hawkish FOMC Minutes, and no break of either side is in play.
Support: 0.83265, 0.83168
Resistance: 0.83323, 0.83417
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8327 asian low exposes the 61.8% NY rally fib and then the 0.8317 day low
Close above the 0.8332 asian high and the lower highs trendline reopens the 0.8342 day high
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC, near London open, could break the Asian range
Jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could shift the read during NY hours
Early Asia session with USDCHF holding a tight 0.8327–0.8332 box between the asian low and asian high. The pair sits mid-way through yesterday's 0.8317–0.8342 range. The asian low lines up with the 61.8% of the NY rally fib, while the post-FOMC Minutes bounce stalled at the minutes high near 0.8337 despite the broad USD yield bid.
Support: 0.8327, 0.8318
Resistance: 0.8332, 0.8337, 0.8342
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asian high at 0.8332, then the minutes high at 0.8337, puts the 0.8342 day high back in play
Loss of the asian low at 0.8327 (61.8% of the NY rally fib) exposes the 0.8317–0.8319 session low cluster
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could break the range
00:02 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat after NY fade · RSI 45 · price 0.83296
Tight 0.83265–0.83323 band since rollover, lower highs from day high.
Early Asia session, price pinned in a 0.83265–0.83323 band since the rollover low/rollover hi formed after the daily open, sitting on the 50% fib of the 0.83168 day low to 0.83417 day high swing. The hawkish FOMC Minutes bounce stalled at the 0.83372 minutes high, extending a lower-highs sequence from the day high; RSI(14) near 45, ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 0.83265, 0.83168
Resistance: 0.83323, 0.83372, 0.83417
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.83323 rollover hi breaks the overnight band and puts the 0.83372 minutes high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.83265 rollover low (near the 61.8% NY swing fib) exposes the 0.83168 day low
A push through the 0.83417 day high ends the lower-highs read
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read