Higher lows from 0.8192 double bottom, capped at 50% fib.
USDCHF has carved a double bottom at the 0.8192 monthly low and printed higher lows since. Haven demand faded and US data held firm into FOMC, taking the pair back through half of the 0.8395–0.8192 decline. The rebound has stalled at the 50% fib near 0.8293, with ATR(14) compressing to roughly 16 pips from 30-40 pips during the selloff. The last two bars are pressing the rising trendline, while EMA20 curls up through EMA50 at the ema20/50 cluster near 0.8263.
Support: 0.8263, 0.8222, 0.8192
Resistance: 0.8293, 0.8317, 0.8348
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 50% fib at 0.8293 and the 0.8300 handle exposes the 61.8% fib at 0.8317, then the range top near 0.8348
A break of the rising trendline and the ema20/50 cluster at 0.8263 would interrupt the higher-low sequence, with the range floor at 0.8222 next
Failure to hold the 0.8192 monthly low would negate the double bottom
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and Core PCE Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows since the 0.8192 double low.
USD/CHF has rebuilt from the 0.8192 double low, with a higher-low trendline through 0.8229 and a fresh swing low at 0.8261. Price is now pressing the 50% fib of the 0.8395-0.8192 decline at 0.8293, carried by the USD recovery on hawkish-hold FOMC positioning and a fading CHF haven bid. Price trades above both EMAs following an EMA20/50 cross. The last four bars have compressed to roughly 11-pip ranges against an ATR(14) near 18.5, so price is coiling just below that fib.
Support: 0.8261, 0.8229, 0.8192
Resistance: 0.8293, 0.8316
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.8293 (50% fib) opens the 0.8316 prior high
Failure to hold the 0.8261 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence
Loss of the 0.8229 higher low and the higher-low trendline shifts focus back to the 0.8192 double low
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC: December guidance could materially shift this read
Thursday core PCE (f/c 0.3% MoM) is the post-FOMC follow-through test
Double bottom at 0.8192, higher low at 0.8229, testing 50% fib.
The slide from the 0.8395 swing high bottomed twice at 0.8192, forming a double bottom. Monday's higher low at 0.8229 has carried price back to the 50% fib of that decline near 0.8293, as USD rebuilt a hawkish-hold premium into the Fed. EMA20 has turned up through EMA50 with price above both, and ATR(14) near 16 pips sits well below the early-October expansion, while shallow dips toward the 0.8273 pullback low show demand stepping in ahead of the event.
Support: 0.8273, 0.8229, 0.8192
Resistance: 0.8293, 0.8317, 0.8395
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.8293 50% fib opens the 61.8% fib at 0.8317
Loss of the 0.8273 pullback low, then the 0.8229 higher low, would break the recovery sequence and expose the 0.8192 double btm
FOMC decision and Powell on Wed 28 Oct 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read, with December-hike guidance the swing factor
Core PCE Thu 29 Oct 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence today at 14:00 UTC are near-term inputs
The 0.8395 swing high caps the larger structure; only a move beyond it would erase the lower-high sequence from early October
09:03 UTC
Recovering from one-month low, testing range cap · RSI 68 · price 0.82774
Higher lows since the 0.8192 double bottom; lower-high sequence from 0.8395 broken.
USD/CHF carved a double bottom at 0.8192 on last week's safe-haven CHF bid. It has since built higher lows through the 0.8245 neckline as USD firmed on pre-FOMC short-covering. Price now sits just above the 38.2% fib of the 0.8395–0.8192 decline and is pressing the 0.8290–0.8300 range cap, which aligns with the 50% retracement. ATR(14) has eased to around 20 pips, so the rebound is grinding rather than expanding, and EMA20 is curling above EMA50.
Support: 0.8269, 0.8245, 0.8192
Resistance: 0.8290, 0.8316, 0.8395
What it said to watch
An H4 close above the 0.8290 range cap opens the path to the 0.8316 swing high, then the 0.8395 oct high
Failure to hold the 38.2% fib at 0.8269 puts the 0.8245 neckline back in play
A break below 0.8245 undercuts the higher-low trendline and the double bottom read; the 0.8192 double btm is the next floor
US Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence today, then the Fed decision Wednesday, could materially shift this read, especially any hedging on December tightening
Higher lows from 0.8192 double bottom; back above mid-Oct range top.
The slide from the 0.8395 spike high bottomed in a double bottom at 0.8192, where safe-haven CHF demand during the bond selloff and soft US housing data drove the one-month low. Since then, higher lows at 0.8214 and 0.8229 carried price back above the 0.8270 range top that capped the pair through mid-October, as US yields recovered into the Fed. Price now sits at the 38.2% retracement, with the recent high at 0.8284 and the 0.8300 round number (50% fib) just overhead, and EMA20 and EMA50 flattening together below price. ATR(14) near 20 pips is well under the 30-40 pip bars of the early-month decline, a compressed regime.
Support: 0.8270, 0.8229, 0.8192
Resistance: 0.8284, 0.8300, 0.8348
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.8300 round number (50% fib) opens the path to the 0.8348 prior highs
Slip back below the 0.8270 range top returns price to the mid-October range
Break below the 0.8229 higher low undercuts the rebound structure and puts the 0.8192 double btm back in play
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read, with Q3 GDP and PCE later in the week
The lower-high sequence from the 0.8395 spike ended in a double bottom at the 0.8192 swing low last week. Price has since printed a higher low at 0.8229 and is pressing above the 0.8270 prior high, back above both EMAs as the dollar firms into FOMC on short covering. ATR(14) has compressed to about 20 pips from the expansion of the mid-month drop, with price now just below the 0.8290/0.8300 range cap and the 38.2% retracement of the 0.8395–0.8192 fib already reclaimed.
Support: 0.8270, 0.8229, 0.8192
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8317, 0.8346
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.8300 range cap opens the 61.8% fib at 0.8317 and the 0.8346 swing high
Slip back below the 0.8270 prior high returns price to the 0.8200–0.8290 range
Break of the 0.8229 higher low and the higher lows trendline negates the double bottom read
Loss of the 0.8192 swing low confirms a fresh lower low
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a non-committal statement on December has more room to move the pair
US Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence today add near-term USD risk