Higher lows since 0.8192 double bottom; Fed bar rejected near week high.
USDCHF has carved higher lows since the 0.8192 double bottom at the monthly low, retracing the CHF safe-haven spike as US yields recovered and Fed hike pricing firmed. The Fed bar probed 0.8309 and was rejected, closing at 0.8279 as USD eased on Warsh's 'tightening is working' line. Price now hovers at EMA20 with ATR(14) near 17 pips after the steady grind, while the rising trendline and the 0.8261 higher low sit just below.
Support: 0.8261, 0.8229, 0.8192
Resistance: 0.8313, 0.8348, 0.8395
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.8313 week high reopens the 0.8348 prior high, with the 0.8395 spike high beyond
Loss of the 0.8261 higher low and rising trendline exposes the 38.2–50% fib zone toward the 0.8229 swing low
Core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a soft print risks a retest of the 0.8192 monthly low
Swiss CPI on Nov 3 is the next CHF-side event that could reshape the range
Higher highs and higher lows since 0.8192 double bottom; stalling under 0.8313.
USDCHF has carved a double bottom at 0.8192 and printed steady higher lows since, lifted by firm US data and December-hike pricing ahead of the Fed. EMA20 has crossed above EMA50 and price has reclaimed the 50% retracement of the 0.8395-0.8192 fib, but the advance is stalling under the 0.8313 week high and the 0.8320 psych level, the latter flagged as major resistance. ATR(14) near 15 pips has compressed well below the 30-40 pip bars of mid-month, with RSI near 67 reflecting a stretched, grinding move.
Support: 0.8275, 0.8255, 0.8192
Resistance: 0.8313, 0.8320, 0.8346
What it said to watch
FOMC decision and Warsh presser within hours could materially shift this read
H4 close above 0.8320 psych opens the 61.8% fib near 0.8317 and the 0.8346 prior high
Break of the higher lows trendline and the ema20 near 0.8275 would signal the leg is losing structure
Loss of the 0.8255 prior cap exposes the 0.8192 double btm lows
Higher highs and higher lows off the 0.8192 double low.
USDCHF has carved a double low near 0.8192 and printed steady higher highs and higher lows since, helped by firm US data and hawkish-hold pricing into today's Fed. Price is now testing the 50% fib of the 0.8395 oct high to 0.8192 decline, with the 0.8313 swing high just above, and EMA20 has crossed above EMA50. ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 16 pips as bar ranges narrow into the event.
Support: 0.8293, 0.8254, 0.8192
Resistance: 0.8313, 0.8349, 0.8395
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H4 close above the 0.8313 swing high opens the path to the 0.8349 prior high and the 0.8395 oct high
Failure to hold the fib 50% at 0.8293 puts the 0.8254 higher low and the rising trendline in focus
A break below the 0.8192 double low would invalidate the recovery structure
Thursday core PCE and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC are the next risk after the Fed
Higher lows off a 0.8192 double bottom; price reclaiming the 50% fib of the October drop.
The twin lows at 0.8192 marked a double btm. Since then the pair has printed steady higher lows along rising support and reclaimed the fib 50% of the 0.8395–0.8192 drop at 0.8293, with EMA20 now crossed above EMA50. Firm US data and fading CHF haven demand drove the four-day recovery into the Fed. ATR(14) has compressed to around 16 pips from 30+ during the October selloff, so the advance is a grind rather than an impulse, with RSI near 73 overbought just under the fib 61.8% at 0.8317.
Support: 0.8293, 0.8229, 0.8192
Resistance: 0.8317, 0.8346, 0.8395
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H4 close above the fib 61.8% at 0.8317 exposes the early-October range top at 0.8346, then the swing high at 0.8395
A break of rising support and a close back below the fib 50% at 0.8293 would stall the higher-low sequence and put the weekly low at 0.8229 in focus
Loss of the 0.8229 weekly low reopens the 0.8192 double btm
Thursday 12:30 UTC Core PCE is a second event risk for the recovery structure
Higher highs / higher lows since 0.8192, pressing 50% retrace.
Twin lows at 0.8192 marked a double bottom, and the pair has carved steady higher highs and higher lows since, with EMA20 crossing above EMA50 on the way up. Price now sits at the 50% retracement of the 0.8395–0.8192 decline and just under the 0.8300 round number, with RSI near 70 and ATR compressed to roughly 16 pips as the dollar holds two-week highs into today's FOMC. The 61.8% fib at 0.8317 and the prior range high at 0.8349 cap the path above.
Support: 0.8261, 0.8229, 0.8192
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8317, 0.8349
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and press conference 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR compression leaves room for expansion
H4 close above the 0.8300 round number opens the 61.8% fib at 0.8317, then the range high at 0.8349
Break below the 0.8261 higher low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 0.8229 swing low
Loss of the 0.8229 swing low reopens the 0.8192 double btm area
Thu core PCE (f/c 0.3% m/m) as follow-through or reversal of the FOMC move
Higher lows off a double bottom at 0.8192, pressing the 50% fib.
USDCHF has carved a double bottom at 0.8192 and built a sequence of higher lows at the 0.8230 pivot and the 0.8261 higher low. The pair has climbed to the 50% fib of the 0.8395–0.8192 decline at 0.8294, just under the 0.8300 round number. That recovery came as easing Iran haven demand and resilient US data lifted the dollar. EMA20 has crossed back above EMA50. ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 16 pips as bars narrow into the Fed decision, leaving the 0.8294–0.8335 prior range overhead as the next test.
Support: 0.8261, 0.8230, 0.8192
Resistance: 0.8294, 0.8300, 0.8335
What it said to watch
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and Powell presser could materially shift this read
H4 close above the 0.8300 round number opens the 0.8335 prior range highs
Break below the rising trendline and the 0.8261 higher low would stall the recovery structure
Loss of the 0.8230 pivot reopens the 0.8192 double bottom
Thursday core PCE (f/c 0.3% MoM) as follow-through risk