USD/CHF AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Wednesday, 28 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CHF 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Downtrend since the Fed spike, drifting at the lows · RSI 37 · price 0.82752
Lower highs under a falling trendline; post-Fed lows at 0.8274-0.8276 being pressed.
The press-conference bar after the Fed hold met rejection at the 0.8309 fed spike and dropped 32 pips in the dollar's sell-the-fact move. Since then a lower high sequence (0.8291 post-fed hi, then the 0.8283 lower high) has capped quiet post-NY trade, with a fresh session low at 0.8274 and RSI(14) near 37, not yet oversold.
Support: 0.82741, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8283, 0.8291, 0.83092
What it said to watch
Acceptance below the 0.8274 session low extends the downtrend toward 0.8250 key support
M15 close above the 0.8283 lower high breaks the falling trendline
Close above the 0.8291 post-fed hi negates the post-Fed lower-high sequence
Core PCE and Q3 GDP on Thu 12:30 UTC (~13h) could materially shift this read
Tight range 0.8276–0.8291 below Fed spike, lower highs.
The Fed press-conference bar spiked to 0.8309, was rejected, and fell to 0.8277 as USD sold the fact on the expected hold. That drop put the pair well below the 0.8313 London session high. Since then price has compressed in early Asia between the 0.82755 post-Fed low and the 0.8291 post-Fed high, with lower highs capping at the 0.8283 range cap and price pinned near the floor.
Support: 0.82755, 0.8270
Resistance: 0.8283, 0.82909, 0.8313
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.82755 post-Fed low breaks the range and puts the 0.8270 round number in play
Close above the 0.8283 range cap and lower-highs line shifts focus back to the 0.8291 post-Fed high
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC Thu (~13h) could materially shift this read
23:17 UTC
Post-Fed downswing, now flat · RSI 44 · price 0.82797
Tight range under lower highs above the post-Fed low.
The Fed press conference spiked USD/CHF to a 0.8309 fed spike high, then it reversed 33 pips to 0.8276. The digest reads this as sell-the-fact USD after a hawkish hold that was already priced. Into the early Asia session, price is boxed between the 0.8276 post-fed low (tested four times) and a 0.8291 swing high, under a line of lower highs.
Support: 0.8276, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8283, 0.8291, 0.8309
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8276 post-fed low extends the post-Fed leg toward 0.8250 key support
Close above the 0.8283 session high and the 0.8291 swing high breaks the lower-highs line and the rejection read
Price holding below the 38.2% retrace of the fed spike fib (~0.8288) keeps the reversal structure intact
US Core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~13h) could materially shift this read
Post-Fed sell-off basing in a tight range above the post-fed low.
The Fed press conference brought a spike to 0.8309 that was rejected; that fed spike high sits below the 0.8313 London-open high. Price then dropped 33 pips to the 0.82755 post-fed low as USD sold the hawkish hold. Since the NY close the pair has held a 7-pip range between 0.8276 and the 0.8283 late NY high, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 0.82755
Resistance: 0.82827, 0.82909, 0.83092
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.82755 post-fed low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery through the 0.8291 rebound high (38.2% fib zone) would challenge the post-Fed downtrend read
Core PCE, GDP and claims Thu 12:30 UTC (~14h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs inside a tight post-presser band 0.8276–0.8291.
The Fed hold produced a spike to 0.8309 that reversed on Warsh's 'tightening is working' presser, a 34-pip drop that broke the pre-Fed low at 0.8288 and printed a post-Fed low at 0.8276. Price has since compressed into early Asia with a lower-highs trendline capping it below the 38.2% fed drop fib. RSI(14) sits in the mid-40s and price is below both EMAs.
Support: 0.82755, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.82876, 0.82909, 0.83092
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8291 post-fed hi breaks the lower-highs trendline and reclaims the fib 38.2% zone
Reclaiming the 0.8288 pre-fed low would neutralise the post-presser break
Failure to hold the 0.8276 post-fed low extends the leg toward the 0.8250 round number
US core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~14h) could materially shift this read
22:32 UTC
Downtrend after Fed, now compressing · RSI 47 · price 0.82821
Lower lows from 0.8313 session high; post-Fed range 0.82755–0.8291.
Warsh's 'tightening is working' presser produced a false break to 0.83092 that reversed through the pre-Fed low to 0.82769, extending the lower-low sequence from the 0.8313 London session high. Price has since held a 0.82755–0.8291 post-Fed range into a thin Asia session, capped just under ema20 near 0.8284.
Support: 0.82755
Resistance: 0.8284, 0.82905, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8291 fed range hi, near the 38.2% retracement of the 0.8313–0.82755 drop, reopens the 0.8300 round number
Failure to hold the 0.82755 post-fed low confirms a further lower-low and exposes the 0.8250 support
Core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~14h) could materially shift this read
22:17 UTC
Downside break after Fed, now flat · RSI 44 · price 0.82814
Day's range broken lower post-Fed; tight consolidation with lower highs.
The Fed presser spiked USD/CHF to 0.8309, just short of the London-open session high at 0.8313. Price was then rejected through the pre-Fed 0.8288 low as Warsh's 'tightening is working' line softened the USD. Since then, trade has compressed into a 0.8276–0.8291 band under the ema20, with lower highs off the 0.8291 bounce high, which sits near the 38.2–50% of the fed spike fib; RSI(14) is neutral at 43 into a quiet early Asia session.
Support: 0.82755
Resistance: 0.8284, 0.82909, 0.8313
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8276 post-fed low extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the lower highs line and the 0.8291 bounce high invalidates the post-Fed downside read
Reclaim of ema20 near 0.8284 would mark the first shift in post-Fed structure
Core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~14h) could materially shift this read
22:04 UTC
Post-Fed downside break, now flat at the lows · RSI 42 · price 0.82773
Tight post-Fed band, lower highs pressing a flat floor.
Warsh's 'tightening is working' presser knocked USDCHF 33 pips off the 0.8309 spike high, breaking through the 0.8288 pre-Fed low. The pair has since held a 0.8276–0.8291 band. Five tests of the 0.8276 post-Fed low have held after NY close, with lower highs compressing toward the floor and bounces capped near the 38.2% fib and the 0.8291 bounce high.
Support: 0.82755, 0.8270
Resistance: 0.8284, 0.82876, 0.82905
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8276 post-Fed low extends the break toward the 0.8270 round number
Recovery through 0.8284 lower highs, then the 0.8288 pre-Fed low and 0.8291 bounce high, negates the compression read
Core PCE / Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~14.5h) could materially shift this read
21:47 UTC
Downtrend after Fed spike, compressing near lows · RSI 38 · price 0.82785
Post-Fed range break below London-NY range and Asian low; lower highs into the post-NY lull.
Warsh's 'tightening is working' presser drove a 33-pip Fed drop from the 0.8309 fed spike high to 0.8276, breaking the London-NY range and the 0.8283 Asian low. Post-Fed bars are printing lower highs under the 0.8291 post-fed high. Price is pinned near the 0.8276 post-fed low in thin after-NY trade, with RSI(14) at 38.
Support: 0.82755, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.82831, 0.82909, 0.83092
What it said to watch
Close back above 0.8283 Asian low, then the 0.8291 post-fed high, would put price back inside the prior range and negate the break
Failure to hold the 0.8276 post-fed low exposes the 0.8250 round number
Break of the post-Fed lower highs line would signal the consolidation is resolving higher
Core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~15h) is the next catalyst that could materially shift this read
Lower highs after Fed spike reversal, compressing above post-Fed low.
The Fed spike to 0.8309 reversed hard during the press conference. USDCHF dropped through the 0.8283 Asian low to the 0.8276 Fed low as USD eased on Warsh's 'tightening is working' line. Late NY trade is compressing near the lows under a run of lower highs capped by the 0.8291 range top, with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 0.82755, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.82831, 0.8291, 0.83092
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8276 Fed low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8250 round number
Reclaim of the 0.8283 Asian low and an M15 close above the 0.8291 range top breaks the lower-highs line
Core PCE / Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~15h) could materially shift this read
Post-Fed break of day range; lower highs compressing onto 0.8276 lows.
Warsh's 'tightening is working' presser triggered a 33-pip flush from the 0.8309 spike high through the 0.8288 pre-Fed low, after London had already rejected the 0.8313 session high. The 0.8290 bounce highs stalled near the 38.2–50% retrace. Lower highs since then are pressing onto the 0.8276 post-Fed low into thin rollover trade, with RSI(14) near 39 and not oversold.
Support: 0.82755, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.82876, 0.82905, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8276 post-Fed low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8250 half figure
Recovery above the 0.8288 pre-Fed low and 0.8290 bounce highs breaks the post-Fed lower highs and neutralises the breakdown
Reclaiming the 0.8300 round number would put price back inside the pre-Fed range
Core PCE / Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~15h) is the next event risk that could materially shift this read
Pre-Fed range broken lower; tight late-NY range under 0.8291.
Warsh's 'tightening is working' presser broke the day's 0.8288–0.8313 range lower. The 18:30 bar spiked to a fed spike hi of 0.8309, then reversed through the 0.8288 prior low to 0.8276. Late NY has compressed between the 0.8276 session low and a post-fed cap near 0.8291, which sits in the 38.2–50% zone of the fed spike fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 44 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.82755, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.82876, 0.82905, 0.83092
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8276 session low extends the post-Fed leg toward UOB support at 0.8250
Recovery above the 0.8291 post-fed cap and the 0.8288 prior low puts price back inside the pre-Fed range
A move back through the 0.8309 fed spike hi invalidates the downside-break read
Core PCE and Q3 GDP on Thu 12:30 UTC (~15.5h) could materially shift this read
Thin liquidity into the Asia session can produce noisy probes of the session low
20:47 UTC
Downtrend after post-Fed reversal · RSI 39 · price 0.8277
Lower highs pressing a triple-tested 0.8276 floor, below the Asian range.
The Fed hold spike to 0.8309 reversed 33 pips inside one bar and broke the 0.8280 Asian low. The day's 0.8313 London-open high was not retested. Post-Fed rebounds stalled at the 38.2% fib near 0.8290, and lower highs now press a 0.8276 post-fed low tested three times into the NY close.
Support: 0.8276, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8284, 0.8290, 0.8309
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8276 post-fed low extends the lower-low sequence and opens 0.8250 uob support
Close above the lower-highs trendline near 0.8284 and the 0.8290 38.2% fib would negate the post-Fed fade
Return above the 0.8309 fed spike high puts the 0.8313 session high back in play
Core PCE/GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~16h) is the next scheduled catalyst that could materially shift this read
20:32 UTC
Short-term down after post-Fed reversal, momentum flattening · RSI 45 · price 0.82831
Lower highs pressing a 0.8276 floor; 0.8276–0.8291 post-Fed box.
The FOMC press-conference bar spiked to 0.8309, a false break of the 0.8308 NY high. It then reversed 33 pips to 0.8276, cutting through the 0.8288 pre-Fed low despite the hawkish-leaning statement. Since then price has held a tight consolidation: the post-fed low at 0.8276 has been tested four times, and lower highs are capped near 0.8291 (post-fed cap, around the 38.2% retrace), leaving the 0.8313 session high well above.
Support: 0.8276, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8291, 0.8309, 0.8313
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8291 post-fed cap breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 0.8309 fed spike
Failure to hold the 0.8276 post-fed low extends the post-Fed drop toward 0.8250 support
Thin Asia session follows; Core PCE/GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~16h) could materially shift this read
20:17 UTC
Downtrend after Fed reversal, now basing · RSI 43 · price 0.8281
Post-Fed range 0.8276–0.8291 below broken Asian range low.
The Fed hold briefly lifted USD/CHF to a 0.8309 spike high before the press conference reversed it 33 pips to the 0.8276 Fed low. That break took out the 0.8283 Asian range low and the 0.8288 NY low. Late NY has since held a tight post-Fed range with four tests of 0.8276, with highs capped at 0.8291 near the 38.2% fib of the drop.
Support: 0.8276, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8291, 0.8300, 0.8309
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8276 Fed low extends the lower-low chain toward 0.8250 key support
Reclaim of 0.8291 post-Fed high and the 0.8300 round number negates the reversal read; 0.8309 fed spike high caps above
Remainder of Warsh press conference on December-hike guidance could materially shift this read
Q3 GDP and core PCE Thu 12:30 UTC are the next scheduled volatility point
20:02 UTC
Down-leg after Fed, now basing near lows · RSI 40 · price 0.82803
Post-Fed range 0.8276–0.8291 below the Asian low.
The Warsh presser spiked USD/CHF to a 0.8309 spike high, above the NY high, then reversed 33 pips to 0.8276 and took out the Asian low. The London high at 0.8313 stays the day's top. Since then the pair has held a tight post-Fed range, with three tests of the 0.8276 post-Fed low holding and rebounds capped near the 38.2% fib at 0.8291.
Support: 0.82765, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8291, 0.83092, 0.8313
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8276 post-Fed low confirms a lower-low and exposes key support at 0.8250
Close back above the 0.8291 post-Fed cap reopens the 0.8309 spike high and the 0.8313 London high
Fed presser headlines still feeding through, and Thu 12:30 UTC Q3 GDP and core PCE could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the London open high, post-Fed range 0.8276–0.8291.
The pair had already faded from the 0.8313 London high when the Fed hold and Warsh presser produced a 32-pip two-way bar at 18:30 UTC. Price ran to the 0.8309 Fed spike high, then rejected and broke the Asian low at 0.8283 down to a 0.8276 Fed low. Three post-Fed bounces have stalled at the 0.8291 post-fed cap, and price is now hovering back near the Asian low.
Support: 0.82831, 0.82761
Resistance: 0.82909, 0.83092, 0.8313
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.8291 post-fed cap would reclaim the pre-Fed range and open the 50% retrace near 0.8293
Failure to hold the 0.8276 Fed low would extend the lower-low sequence below the Asian low
A recovery through the 0.8309 Fed spike high would negate the rejection and put the 0.8313 London high back in view
The Warsh presser is still in progress, and December-hike guidance could produce further spikes
Thu 12:30 UTC Q3 GDP and core PCE are the next scheduled catalysts for this range
24h range broken lower; lower high at 0.8291 after 0.8276 low.
Late in NY hours, the Warsh press conference opened with a spike to the 0.8309 presser high. Price was rejected there and dropped 32 pips to the 0.8276 fed low, breaking below the Asian range and the 0.8288 afternoon swing low. The rebound capped at the 0.8291 bounce high. A second test of 0.8277 held, and the pair now sits near session lows with RSI(14) around 38.
Support: 0.82761, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.82909, 0.8300, 0.83092
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8291 bounce high would put the post-Fed range break in doubt
Failure to hold the 0.8276 fed low exposes the 0.8250 uob support level
Reclaim of the 0.8300 round number would put the 0.8309 presser high back in play
Thu 12:30 UTC Q3 GDP and core PCE could materially shift this read
19:17 UTC
Intraday down after Fed whipsaw · RSI 37 · price 0.82805
Range break lower; post-Fed low at 0.8276.
Fed whipsaw late in the NY session. The spike high at 0.8309 was rejected, and price broke the pre-Fed low at 0.8288 and the Asian range floor to a post-Fed low of 0.8276, despite the digest's hawkish-hold read on USD. The rebound stalled near the 38.2% of the post-Fed drop around 0.8290; price sits below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 37 and ATR expanded to about 8 pips.
Support: 0.8276, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8288, 0.8300, 0.8309
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the pre-Fed low at 0.8288 would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the post-Fed low at 0.8276 exposes the 0.8250 sup flagged in the digest
Recovery through the round number at 0.8300 puts the spike high at 0.8309 back in play
Warsh presser in progress: December-hike guidance could reverse this read within the next bars
Thu 12:30 UTC GDP and core PCE are the next scheduled volatility risk
Lower high under 0.8313 London high; overnight low broken on the presser, then reclaimed.
After the Fed's expected hold, the Warsh presser produced a whipsaw. Price spiked to the 0.8309 presser high, rejected, and dropped about 33 pips through the 0.8280 overnight low to a 0.8276 presser low before reclaiming it. Price is now stalling at the 38.2% fib of that drop, just above the 0.8288 pre-Fed low and below both EMAs, with the 0.8313 London high capping the session.
Support: 0.82876, 0.82803, 0.82761
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.83092, 0.8313
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8280 overnight low would turn the false break into a confirmed breakdown toward the 0.8276 presser low
Recovery through the 0.8300 round number and the 0.8309 presser high reopens the 0.8288–0.8313 range toward the London high
Further Warsh presser headlines on December guidance could extend the whipsaw; ATR has roughly doubled to ~7 pips
Thu 12:30 UTC GDP and core PCE releases are the next scheduled catalyst for the pair
18:47 UTC
Sharp post-Fed drop, below both EMAs · RSI 33 · price 0.82841
Range break lower on FOMC presser spike.
USD/CHF held a 0.8288–0.8313 range through London and NY after the early-London session high at 0.8313. The Warsh presser bar was rejected at 0.8309 and reversed 32 pips to a 0.8277 presser low, breaking the 0.8280 gap low. Price sits at 0.8284 below the ny low at 0.8288 and the 0.8300 round number. RSI(14) is near 33 and ATR has expanded to roughly 6.5 pips.
Support: 0.82803, 0.82769
Resistance: 0.82876, 0.8300, 0.8313
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.8288 ny low reopens the pre-Fed range toward the 0.8300 round number
Failure to hold the 0.8277 presser low extends the range break below the gap low
38.2% fib of the 0.8313–0.8277 drop sits near 0.8291; rejection there keeps the drop intact
Warsh presser still in progress; explicit December-hike language could reverse the spike
24h range 0.8288–0.8313, rebounding off NY swing low into Fed presser.
The London open spike to the 0.8313 london high was rejected, and price has since rotated between the 0.8288 swing low and the 0.8308 ny high. The in-line Fed hold whipsawed price to a 0.8291 fed low before it reclaimed 0.8300 and the 61.8% retrace, now sitting on its EMAs with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 0.8291, 0.82876
Resistance: 0.83078, 0.8313, 0.8320
What it said to watch
Warsh presser under way from 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; December-hike guidance is the swing factor
M15 close above the 0.8313 london high reopens the 0.8320 major res cited by UOB
Loss of the 0.8291 fed low breaks the rising line; below the 0.8288 swing low confirms a lower-low
18:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend off 0.8313, bouncing into Fed · RSI 55 · price 0.83011
Rejection at the 0.8313 day high in early London set up a lower-high chain, with the 0.8308 NY high and the 0.8288 NY low in late NY. The 18:00 UTC Fed decision bar swung 0.8291–0.8301 and price is back at 0.8300 psych, near the 61.8% fib of that NY leg and just under the falling trendline. RSI(14) is mid-50s and ATR(14) is about 4 pips.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82909, 0.82876
Resistance: 0.83078, 0.8313
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8308 ny high breaks the lower-high sequence and the falling trendline
Failure to hold 0.8300 psych, then the 0.8291 fed bar low, re-exposes the 0.8288 ny low
Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; an explicit December-hike signal is the swing factor
A push back toward the 0.8313 day high runs into the 0.8320 major resistance flagged in the macro digest
18:03 UTC
Intraday down from 0.8313 day high, pre-Fed bounce · RSI 43 · price 0.82958
Lower highs through NY, brief break of London low reclaimed.
The 0.8313 day high printed at the London open after a four-day USD bid, then NY carved lower highs at 0.8308 and 0.8305 before slipping through the 0.8292 London low to a 0.8288 NY low. The pre-Fed bounce recovered above the London low but stalled at 0.8298, just under the 61.8% fib of the NY drop near 0.8300. The FOMC decision bar is live.
Support: 0.82918, 0.82876, 0.82831
Resistance: 0.83001, 0.8305, 0.8313
What it said to watch
Fed decision (18:00 UTC) and Warsh presser (18:30 UTC) are in progress; the decision bar can override this structure outright.
A close above 0.8300 (61.8% fib) breaks the NY lower-highs line and reopens the 0.8305 lower high and the 0.8313 day high.
Loss of the 0.8288 NY low confirms a lower low and exposes the 0.8283 Asian low.
A hold back under the 0.8292 London low turns the pre-Fed bounce into a failed recovery.
17:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs off London high · RSI 33 · price 0.82916
The Asia rally topped at the London high of 0.8313 on the open. Rejections since have left lower highs at the 0.8308 NY high and 0.8305, and the pair slipped below the 0.8299 London floor to a 0.8288 session low as the hawkish premium bled out ahead of the Fed. RSI(14) near 33 with ATR about 3.8 pips; price is holding just above the session low into the decision.
Support: 0.82876, 0.82831
Resistance: 0.82992, 0.83078, 0.8313
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 0.8288 session low exposes the 0.8283 asian low
M15 close back above the 0.8299 london floor neutralises the lower-high sequence
Break of the descending trendline from the london high through the ny high invalidates the downtrend read
17:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 32 · price 0.82905
Lower highs from 0.8313; midday range low broken late NY.
USD/CHF has printed lower highs since the 0.8313 London-open high (a two-week high), capped again at the 0.8308 NY high. Late NY hours broke the 0.8292 midday prior low and set a session low at 0.82876, with RSI(14) near 32. Price is holding near the lows ahead of the 18:00 UTC Fed decision, and the Asian low at 0.8283 sits just below.
Support: 0.82876, 0.82831
Resistance: 0.82918, 0.83078, 0.8313
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close back above the 0.8292 prior low negates the range break
Failure to hold the 0.82876 session low exposes the 0.8283 asian low
A recovery through the 0.8308 ny high breaks the lower-high trendline from the london high
17:03 UTC
Short-term downtrend into FOMC · RSI 31 · price 0.8290
Lower highs since 14:15 UTC, range floor broken.
Late in the NY session USD/CHF slipped through the 0.8292 broken low, the London-NY range floor, and printed a 0.8288 session low as pre-Fed USD premium bled out. The move extends a descending trendline of lower highs off 0.8308 and 0.8305, after a rejection at the 0.8313 day high at London open. RSI(14) is near 31, soft but not oversold.
Support: 0.82876, 0.8283
Resistance: 0.8292, 0.8305, 0.8313
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Recovery back above the 0.8292 broken low would turn the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8283 Asian low extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 0.8305 lower high breaks the descending trendline; 0.8313 day high caps above that
16:46 UTC
Intraday fade from London high, lower highs · RSI 33 · price 0.8293
Lower highs from 0.8313; price retesting 0.8292 session low.
USD/CHF was rejected at the 0.8313 London high, the two-week high, and the NY high at 0.8308 came in lower. Price has slipped back under the 0.8300 round number and both EMAs and is retesting the 0.8292 session low, with RSI(14) near 33 as the hawkish-hold premium bleeds out ahead of the Fed.
Support: 0.8292, 0.8283, 0.8280
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8308, 0.8313
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8292 session low extends the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.8283 asian low and the 0.8280 rollover low in play
Recovery above the 0.8300 round number and the lower-highs line neutralises the intraday fade; the ny high at 0.8308 is next
Price is past the 61.8% retrace of the asia-london rally; losing 0.8283 completes the full retrace
FOMC at 18:00 UTC (~75 min) and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR near 4 pips is likely to expand sharply
16:32 UTC
Intraday fade, lower highs since NY high · RSI 38 · price 0.82949
Lower highs inside 0.8292–0.8313 day range, testing lower end.
The 0.8313 session high was rejected around the London open, and NY has carved lower highs from the 0.8308 ny high along a falling trendline. Price has slipped back under psych 0.8300 toward the 0.8292 swing low as hawkish-Fed positioning bleeds out pre-FOMC. RSI(14) is near 38 and ATR is about 4 pips, so the tape is compressed ahead of the decision.
Support: 0.82918, 0.82831
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.83078, 0.8313
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.8292 swing low confirms a lower low and opens the 0.8283 asian low
A reclaim of psych 0.8300 and the lower-highs trendline neutralises the fade, with the 0.8308 ny high next
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC can override intraday structure; the 0.8313 session high and 0.8320 are the upside references
0.8292–0.8313 range since London, NY capping lower.
London's break of the Asian range was rejected at the 0.8313 two-week high (london high). NY has since printed lower highs at 0.8308 and 0.8305, and price has slipped back under 0.8300 on hawkish-hold positioning into the Fed. Range low at 0.8292 remains intact, and the 0.8296 swing low is the nearest test with RSI(14) neutral at 45.
Support: 0.82964, 0.82918
Resistance: 0.8305, 0.8313
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8292 range low breaks the session floor and confirms a lower-low
Close above the 0.8305 lower high reopens the 0.8313 london high
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC likely to resolve the range; ATR of ~4 pips understates event risk
16:02 UTC
Sideways after London-open rejection · RSI 52 · price 0.83014
Range 0.8292–0.8308 below 0.8313 session high, lower highs.
The Asia rally on hawkish-hold USD demand ran into rejection at the 0.8313 session high at London open. Since then price has chopped inside a 0.8292 london low to 0.8308 ny high range, with lower highs off the peak. It is now pinned at the 38.2% fib of the Asia-London rally around 0.8302, RSI flat near 52, ATR about 4.5 pips ahead of the 18:00 UTC FOMC.
Support: 0.8296, 0.8292
Resistance: 0.8308, 0.8313
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8308 ny high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.8313 session high
Loss of 0.8296 ny low then 0.8292 london low (near the 61.8% fib) breaks the range floor
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.8313 against rising NY lows; tightening range.
Asia lifted the pair from 0.8283 to 0.8300, and early London tagged the 0.8313 day high before fading as pre-Fed USD demand stalled. NY has printed lower highs under the 0.8308 ny high and rising lows off the 0.8292 swing low (0.8296 ny swing low next), with price pinned at the 0.8300 round number and the EMAs ahead of FOMC.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82964, 0.82918
Resistance: 0.83078, 0.8313
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.8313 day high breaks the lower-highs line and opens 0.8320
Loss of the 0.8296 ny swing low breaks the rising lows; below the 0.8292 swing low confirms a lower low from the day high
Acceptance either side of the 0.8300 round number while ATR sits near 4-5 pips keeps the pre-Fed squeeze intact
15:31 UTC
Sideways after Asia rally, compressing under session high · RSI 56 · price 0.83026
Higher lows since 0.8292 beneath 0.8308–0.8313 cap; pre-FOMC coil.
Asia session drove USDCHF from the asia low at 0.8283 to a 0.8313 session high at the London open on hawkish-hold Fed hopes, then saw rejection and a near-70% retrace to the 0.8292 midday low. NY hours have held higher lows at 0.8296 and the 0.8299 ny low, capped by the 0.8308 ny high, a tightening coil into FOMC.
Support: 0.82985, 0.82918, 0.82831
Resistance: 0.83078, 0.8313
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8308 ny high reopens the 0.8313 session high; acceptance above there breaks the cap
Loss of the 0.8299 ny low and the higher-low trendline exposes the 0.8292 midday low
Below 0.8292, the asia low at 0.8283 comes back into play
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Contracting range: lower highs from 0.8313, higher lows from 0.8292.
Hawkish-hold Fed bets pushed USD/CHF out of the Asian range to a 0.8313 session high at London open. The pair then rejected and faded to a 0.8292 session low before NY. During NY hours it is coiling between higher lows (0.8296, then the 0.8299 ny low) and lower highs capped by the 0.8308 ny high, with RSI(14) at 55 and ATR(14) near 5 pips ahead of FOMC.
Support: 0.82985, 0.82918, 0.82831
Resistance: 0.83078, 0.8313, 0.8320
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.8308 ny high breaks the lower-highs line; above the 0.8313 session high brings the 0.8320 res zone into play
Loss of the 0.8299 ny low breaks the higher-lows sequence and exposes the 0.8292 session low, then the 0.8283 asian low
15:02 UTC
Sideways after early-Europe rejection · RSI 52 · price 0.83007
Higher lows under a flat 0.8307 cap, range compressing.
The early-Europe push to the 0.8313 day high was rejected. USD/CHF has since compressed between the 0.8292 range low and a flat 0.8307 range top. NY hours have printed rising lows at 0.8296 (higher low) and 0.8299, around the 50% fib of the Asia-Europe leg, while price sits on EMA20/EMA50 with RSI flat near 52 ahead of the 18:00 UTC FOMC.
Support: 0.82964, 0.82918, 0.82831
Resistance: 0.83078, 0.8313
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.8308 range top reopens the 0.8313 day high
Loss of the rising lows and the 0.8292 range low ends the compression read and exposes the 0.8283 asian low
14:47 UTC
Sideways after early rally, range-bound below day high · RSI 56 · price 0.83034
0.8292–0.8308 range since the 0.8313 rejection; rising lows into a flat cap.
USD/CHF climbed from the 0.8283 Asian low to a 0.8313 day high ahead of London open on hawkish-hold Fed positioning. Rejection there left a 0.8292–0.8308 range. The 0.8292 session low held near the 61.8% fib of the Asia rally, and the NY session is printing rising lows at 0.8296 under the flat 0.8308 range top. RSI(14) is neutral at 56 into FOMC.
Support: 0.82964, 0.82918, 0.82831
Resistance: 0.83078, 0.8313, 0.8320
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the pre-event ATR of ~4.6 pips understates post-decision ranges
M15 close above the 0.8308 range top reopens the 0.8313 day high and 0.8320 resistance
Close below the 0.8296 NY low breaks the rising lows; losing the 0.8292 session low exposes the 0.8283 Asian low
14:31 UTC
Intraday range, NY recovery with higher lows · RSI 56 · price 0.83048
0.8292–0.8313 session range; NY holding higher lows above the 0.8300 round number.
London open broke above the Asian range near 0.8301 and ran to the 0.8313 london high, a two-week top, before a rejection drove price to a 0.8292 session low. NY has printed higher lows at 0.8296 (ny low) and is holding the 0.8300 round number, testing the 61.8% fib of the London high-low leg just under the 0.8308 ny high as USD stays firm into the Fed.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82964, 0.82918
Resistance: 0.83078, 0.8313
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8308 ny high reopens the 0.8313 london high, with 0.8320 resistance beyond
Loss of the 0.8300 round number and the 0.8296 ny low breaks the higher-low trendline
Break below the 0.8292 session low turns the range into a lower-low sequence
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
14:16 UTC
Intraday range, rebounding off London low · RSI 55 · price 0.83063
Higher low at 0.8296 pressing 0.8307 range top.
Pre-London push to a 0.8313 session high met rejection, and London faded to a 0.8292 london low. Early NY printed a higher low at 0.8296 and is back testing the 0.8307 range top, capped there three times today, as USD holds firm and a weak Swiss ZEW keeps CHF soft into the Fed.
Support: 0.82964, 0.82918
Resistance: 0.83069, 0.8313
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8307 range top reopens the 0.8313 session high
Failure to hold the 0.8296 higher low points back to the 0.8292 london low
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
14:02 UTC
Sideways after rejection from 0.8313 high · RSI 49 · price 0.83018
0.8292–0.8306 range, higher low at 0.8296.
London open broke through the Asian range top and tagged a 0.8313 2-week high on hawkish-hold Fed hopes. That high was rejected and the pair has since rotated between the 0.8292 swing low and the 0.8306 NY high. A higher low at 0.8296 in the first hour of NY leaves price parked near the 50% retrace of the London drop, with RSI flat at 49 into FOMC.
Support: 0.82964, 0.82918, 0.82831
Resistance: 0.83065, 0.8313
What it said to watch
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.8306 NY high reopens the 0.8313 2-week high
Loss of the 0.8296 higher low and the 0.8292 swing low turns the range into a lower-low sequence toward the 0.8283 asian low
Rising support line from the 0.8292 swing low breaking would confirm the rebound has stalled
13:47 UTC
Range after early-Europe spike, flat · RSI 47 · price 0.82995
Lower highs from 0.8313 inside 0.8292–0.8307 range.
The early-Europe spike to the 0.8313 session high faded, and price has since ranged between 0.8292 and 0.8307, with lower highs capping near 0.8306. The NY session bounce off the 0.8292 session low stalled again at that cap. Price is back at the 50% fib near 0.8298 as USD holds firm ahead of the FOMC.
Support: 0.8298, 0.8292, 0.8283
Resistance: 0.8306, 0.8313, 0.8320
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8306 lower highs breaks the fading sequence; clearing the 0.8313 session high brings 0.8320 resistance into play
Failure to hold the 0.8292 session low extends the range lower toward the Asian low at 0.8283
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
13:32 UTC
Intraday range after London rejection, bid into NY open · RSI 57 · price 0.83057
0.8292–0.8307 range below the 0.8313 session high, testing range top.
An Asian-session grind lifted USDCHF through 0.8300, and the London open spike to the 0.8313 session high was rejected. The pullback held at the 0.8292 London low, about 61.8% of the London decline fib from the high. The first hour of NY is pressing the 0.8307 double high, with RSI(14) in the high 50s and the dollar firm into FOMC.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82918
Resistance: 0.83066, 0.8313
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8307 double high reopens the 0.8313 session high and the 0.8320 resistance
Rejection at 0.8307 keeps the 0.8292–0.8307 range intact
Loss of the 0.8300 round number puts the 0.8292 London low back in play
A break of the London low also breaks the rising support from the Asian low
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
13:17 UTC
Sideways after London fade, NY rebound stalling · RSI 53 · price 0.83032
London lower highs from 0.8313 to a 0.8292 low; NY rebound into the 50-61.8% fib.
London rejected the 0.8313 day high at the open and printed lower highs into a 0.8292 london low at 12:00 UTC. Early NY has retraced into the 50-61.8% fib of that drop, with supply capping at the 0.8307 ny high. Price is holding just above the 0.8300 psych level, RSI(14) is neutral near 53 and ATR(14) is around 4 pips ahead of FOMC.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82918, 0.82831
Resistance: 0.83065, 0.8313, 0.8320
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8307 ny high and the 61.8% fib reopens the 0.8313 day high
Loss of the 0.8300 psych level, then the 0.8292 london low, extends the London lower-high sequence toward the 0.8283 asian low
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC can push range well beyond ATR; 0.8320 resistance is the upside pivot the digest flags
Lower highs since London open, 0.8298 floor broken, retest from below at 0.8300.
The Asian rally from the 0.8283 asian low stalled at the 0.8313 day high, the two-week high, at London open and reversed. Lower highs followed through London, and the 0.8298 floor gave way to a 0.8292 session low. The NY bounce stalled at a 0.8303 lower high on the trendline, leaving price near the 50% fib at 0.8298 with the market holding into FOMC on a firm USD.
Support: 0.82918, 0.82831
Resistance: 0.83026, 0.8313
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8303 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and neutralises the pullback read
Failure to hold the 0.8292 session low exposes the 0.8283 asian low and a full retrace of the Asian rally
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC can override intraday structure; 0.8313 day high vs 0.8320 is the topside test
Lower highs from 0.8313 day high; NY dip below London range low reclaimed.
London open spiked to the 0.8313 day high and reversed quickly, leaving a 0.8298–0.8307 range capped by the london high. The first hour of NY broke below that range to the 0.8292 ny low and rebounded, holding between the 61.8% and 78.6% retrace of the overnight rally from the 0.8283 asia low. Price now sits just under the 0.8300 round number and the flat EMA20/50, with RSI(14) near 42 as the market waits on the Fed.
Support: 0.82918, 0.82831
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.83066, 0.8313
What it said to watch
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 0.8300 round number and the 0.8307 london high reopens the 0.8313 day high
Loss of the 0.8292 ny low and the 78.6% level of the overnight rally fib exposes the 0.8283 asia low
12:32 UTC
Pullback from London high, lower highs · RSI 40 · price 0.8298
London open spike to 0.8313 rejected; lower highs and a dip below the 0.8300 range floor.
Asia ground up from the 0.8283 asian low, and the London open spiked to a 0.8313 session high before sharp rejection. London then capped at successive lower highs near 0.8306 and broke the 0.8300 range floor to a 0.8292 session low. Price is now back near 0.8298, retesting that floor from below as the pre-Fed USD firmness pauses.
Support: 0.8292, 0.8283
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8306, 0.8313
What it said to watch
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 0.8300 range floor and the 0.8306 lower high negates the pullback read
Failure at 0.8300 and a break of the 0.8292 session low opens the asian low at 0.8283, near the fib 100% of the overnight leg
Descending line from the 0.8313 session high caps the bounce while lower highs hold
12:16 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since London open · RSI 32 · price 0.8293
Failed London breakout above Asian range, now below London low.
London open pushed above the Asian range to a 0.8313 london high on firm pre-FOMC USD, then reversed, a false break of the range top. Lower highs at 0.8306 and a break of the 0.8298 london low have taken price into the London-NY transition at the 78.6% fib near 0.8290, with RSI(14) near 32.
Support: 0.8290, 0.8283, 0.8280
Resistance: 0.8298, 0.8306, 0.8313
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 78.6% fib at 0.8290 exposes the 0.8283 asian low and the 0.8280 prior low
Reclaim of the 0.8298 london low and a break of the lower high trendline near 0.8306 would negate the false break read
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
12:02 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since London open · RSI 36 · price 0.82963
London range floor lost; lower-high sequence from 0.8313.
The London-open spike to the 0.8313 session high was rejected. Price has printed lower highs since and slipped through the 0.8298 London low in the last hour, consistent with USD length being trimmed ahead of the Fed. It now sits on the 61.8% fib of the Asian rally near 0.8295, RSI(14) ~36, below both EMAs.
Support: 0.82946, 0.82831
Resistance: 0.82978, 0.83055, 0.8313
What it said to watch
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and press conference 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 0.8295 exposes the asian low at 0.8283
An M15 close back above the 0.8298 london low and the 0.8306 lower high negates the pullback read
A return above the 0.8313 session high reopens the Asian-session uptrend
Lower highs below 0.8313; pressing the London range floor.
USD/CHF ran from the 0.8283 asia low to a 0.8313 session high at London open, extending the firm pre-Fed USD tone, then met rejection. London has since printed lower highs inside 0.8298–0.8306, and price is now pressing the range floor near 0.8297. That sits between the 50% and fib 61.8 levels of the Asia–London leg, with RSI(14) near 40 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 0.82945, 0.82831
Resistance: 0.8298, 0.83066, 0.8313
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.8295 (fib 61.8) opens the path back toward the 0.8283 asia low
Reclaiming the 0.8298 range floor and then a close above the 0.8306 range top breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.8313 session high back in play
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
False break above Asian range; lower highs in London.
The pre-London push through the 0.8301 Asian range top was rejected at the 0.8313 session high. London has since printed lower highs at 0.8307 and 0.8305, and late London is pressing the 0.8298 london low as the USD stalls into FOMC. Price sits at the 50% retracement of the Asian rally, with RSI(14) near 42 and below EMA20/EMA50.
Support: 0.82975, 0.82945, 0.82831
Resistance: 0.83066, 0.8313
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.8298 london low exposes the fib 61.8 at 0.8295, which aligns with the Asian consolidation shelf
Loss of 0.8295 shifts focus back to the 0.8283 asian low
Reclaim of the 0.8307 london high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 0.8313 session high
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; 0.8320 is the next resistance cited above the session high
Asia higher-low leg capped at 0.8313; London holding a 0.8298–0.8307 range.
Pre-Fed USD demand carried Asia through the 0.8294 prior high to a session high at 0.8313 just before London, where price met rejection. London has since compressed between the 0.8298 london low, near the 50% fib of the Asian leg, and the 0.8307 london high, with RSI(14) flat near 52 and ATR around 3.7 pips.
Support: 0.8298, 0.8294
Resistance: 0.8307, 0.8313, 0.8320
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8307 london high reopens the 0.8313 session high, with 0.8320 major resistance (UOB) beyond
Failure to hold the 0.8298 london low / 50% fib exposes the 0.8294 prior high as the breakout retest
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a dovish tilt carries more unwind risk after a four-day rally
10:32 UTC
Asia uptrend stalled; London range below the high · RSI 52 · price 0.83023
Lower highs since London open over a flat 0.8298 floor.
The Asia leg from 0.8283 ran into a London-open spike to the 0.8313 session high and was rejected. Price has since compressed under a lower high at 0.8307, with the 0.8298 London low holding three times near the 50% fib of the Asia move. The pre-FOMC USD bid and the weak Swiss ZEW put in the earlier push, but follow-through has faded into the decision.
Support: 0.8298, 0.8295
Resistance: 0.83066, 0.8313, 0.8320
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8298 london low opens the 0.8295 asian base and the 61.8% fib area
Close above the 0.8307 lower high breaks the compression; the 0.8313 session high is next, then 0.8320 uob resist
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a dovish tilt is the larger-move risk per the digest
Lower high after London-open rejection; 0.8298–0.8307 range.
USDCHF cleared Tuesday's 0.8294 prior high and the 0.8300 handle during the Asia session on pre-FOMC USD firmness, then hit a rejection at the 0.8313 session high at London open. Mid-London, the pullback has held the 0.8298 London low three times, near the 50% fib of the 0.8283–0.8313 rally, while a lower high at 0.8307 caps the range. RSI(14) is neutral near 49 and price sits just under EMA20.
Support: 0.8298, 0.8295
Resistance: 0.8307, 0.8313
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8298 london low breaks the range and exposes the 0.8295 prior high / 61.8% fib
Close above the 0.8307 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.8313 session high
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
10:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing below the London high · RSI 51 · price 0.83036
Asian range break, London spike rejected, 0.8300 retest holding.
London open cleared the Asian range high and the 0.8300 round number, spiking to the 0.8313 London high before a sharp rejection. The pullback low at 0.8298 sits near the 50% retracement of the Asia-London leg and has held, though the 0.8307 lower high caps mid-session price with RSI(14) neutral near 51. The backdrop is USD firming into FOMC.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82978, 0.82831
Resistance: 0.83066, 0.8313
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8298 pullback low puts price back inside the Asian range, with the 0.8283 asian low next
Close above the 0.8307 lower high and then the 0.8313 london high resumes the breakout, with 0.8354 the next digest level
Repeated holds at the 0.8300 round number keep the retest intact
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a dovish tilt is flagged as the larger surprise
London high rejected, higher low at 50% retrace, lower high since.
London open drove USD/CHF through 0.8300 to a 0.8313 session high before a sharp rejection. The pullback found a london low at 0.8298, the 50% retrace of the Asia rally from the 0.8283 asian low, and a 0.8307 lower high has capped price since. RSI(14) is flat near 50 on firm pre-FOMC USD and soft Swiss ZEW, and price is pinned just under EMA20.
Support: 0.82978, 0.82946, 0.82831
Resistance: 0.83066, 0.8313
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8298 london low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.8295 asia shelf
Close above the 0.8307 lower high reopens a test of the 0.8313 session high
Loss of the 0.8283 asian low would retrace the full Asia rally
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR near 4 pips is likely to expand
09:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing after London rejection · RSI 54 · price 0.83033
Asian-high breakout and retest; holding above 0.8300 with a lower high at 0.8307.
Firm USD into FOMC carried the pair through the Asian high and 0.8300 psych into a 0.8313 session high at London open. That high was rejected back to a 0.8298 London low near the 50% retrace of the Asia-London leg. Price is now holding above 0.8300 but capped by a 0.8307 swing high, with RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82978, 0.82943
Resistance: 0.83066, 0.8313
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8298 london low erases the breakout retest and exposes the 0.8294 prior high
Close above the 0.8307 swing high reopens the 0.8313 session high
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
09:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 57 · price 0.83054
Asian range broken higher; London high rejected, 50% retrace held.
London open extended the Asian breakout through 0.8300 to a 0.8313 session high, but rejection there pulled price back to a 0.8298 London low, near the 50% fib of the Asia-London leg. Buyers stepped back in above the 0.8300 handle, and price is now probing the 0.8307 pullback hi as pre-FOMC USD firmness keeps the pair bid.
Support: 0.82978, 0.82943
Resistance: 0.83066, 0.8313
What it said to watch
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above 0.8313 session high resumes the higher-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.8298 London low exposes yesterday's prior high at 0.8294
Rejection again at the 0.8307 pullback hi keeps price capped below the session high
09:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing after London rejection · RSI 55 · price 0.83037
Asian range broken higher, pullback holding the 0.8300 area as higher low.
With USD firm into the FOMC, London broke above the Asian range near 0.8301 and ran to a session high at 0.8313, then sold off to a london low at 0.8298, the 50% retracement of the overnight leg from the 0.8283 asian low. That retest of the 0.8300 area held, and price is back at 0.8304, just under the 0.8306 swing high, with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 0.82978, 0.82831
Resistance: 0.83061, 0.8313
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8306 swing high puts the 0.8313 session high back in play
Break below the 0.8298 london low turns the 0.8300 retest into a failed breakout and exposes the 0.8283 asian low
Swiss ZEW at 09:00 UTC is a minor near-term input; Fed decision at 18:00 UTC is the main risk to this read
08:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing after London-open high · RSI 55 · price 0.8304
Asian range break above 0.8300, pullback retesting the breakout.
USD/CHF pushed a fourth day higher on pre-FOMC dollar firmness. The pair broke the Asian range top near 0.8300 into the London open and printed a 0.8313 session high. The pullback that followed held a 0.8298 retest low, near the 50% fib of the Asian low-to-high leg, and price is back at 0.8304 with RSI(14) neutral at 55.
Support: 0.8298, 0.8294, 0.8283
Resistance: 0.8313, 0.8320
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8313 session high resumes the higher-high chain and exposes the 0.8320 next pivot
Failure to hold the 0.8298 retest low turns the breakout into a false break, with yesterday's prior high at 0.8294 and the 0.8283 Asian low below
Swiss ZEW at 09:00 UTC is a minor near-term catalyst
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the 18:30 UTC presser could materially shift this read; a stretched pair leaves room for a sharp CHF snapback on a less-hawkish hold
False break above 0.8300; price back in the upper Asian range.
The fourth-day USD bid on pre-FOMC caution carried price from the 0.8283 asia low through the 0.8300 round number, and London open pushed it to a 0.8313 london high. That move was rejected within three bars, and the false break has handed back the gain to the 50% retracement near 0.8299. RSI(14) has cooled to 48, with the 0.8295 asia shelf, also the 61.8% fib, directly below.
Support: 0.82946, 0.82831
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8313
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8295 asia shelf (61.8% fib) exposes the 0.8283 asia low
An M15 close back above the 0.8300 round number toward the 0.8313 london high would undo the false-break read
Swiss ZEW at 09:00 UTC is a minor near-term catalyst
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the 18:30 UTC presser could materially shift this read; consensus is a hold, with the focus on December hike guidance
08:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulled back after London high · RSI 52 · price 0.83008
Asian high cleared, London rejected at 0.8313, now retesting 0.8300.
Asia lifted USDCHF off the 0.8283 asia low, and the pre-London push cleared the 0.8300 breakout lvl to a 0.8313 london high on pre-FOMC USD firmness before a sharp rejection. Price is now retesting 0.8300, near the 38.2–50% zone of the Asia-London leg and on the rising Asia trendline, with RSI(14) cooled to the low 50s and a 0.8304 lower high capping the bounce.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82946, 0.82831
Resistance: 0.83045, 0.8313
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8300 breakout lvl and the rising Asia trendline exposes the 0.8295 asia shelf
A move back above the 0.8304 lower high puts the 0.8313 london high back in play
Swiss ZEW at 09:00 UTC could jolt CHF early in London
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Powell at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read around 0.8300
HH/HL leg from 0.8283 broke 0.8300, spike to 0.8313 rejected, now retesting 0.8300.
The Asian session extended the pre-FOMC dollar bid from the 0.8283 asian low through 0.8300. Early European trade spiked to a 0.8313 session high, then a sharp rejection erased the leg. Price is back on the 0.8300 breakout lvl, at the 38.2% fib and just under ema20, with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82946, 0.82831
Resistance: 0.83022, 0.8313
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8300 breakout lvl exposes the 0.8295 asian lows (61.8% fib), then the 0.8283 asian low
An M15 close back above ema20, then the 0.8313 session high, would undo the rejection read
London open is under way; the Swiss ZEW at 09:00 UTC is a minor intraday catalyst
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Powell at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a less-hawkish tone risks a failure at 0.8300
07:47 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 56 · price 0.83035
Asia breakout above 0.8300, London-open rejection now retesting the breakout level.
Firm USD into FOMC carried the pair from the 0.8283 Asia low through yesterday's 0.8294 high and the 0.8300 breakout level, after a long Asian base around 0.8295–0.8301. The run topped at the 0.8313 session high into London open. Two bars of selling have since returned price to the breakout level, near the 38.2% fib and rising support at about 0.8302.
Support: 0.8300, 0.8295, 0.82831
Resistance: 0.8313, 0.8320
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8300 breakout level and the rising support turns the move into a false break, exposing the 0.8295 asian base
Failure to hold the 0.8295 asian base reopens the 0.8283 asia low and the 50% fib near 0.8298
Reclaim of the 0.8313 session high puts the 0.8320 round number in play
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Powell 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Swiss ZEW at 09:00 UTC is a minor risk
07:16 UTC
Uptrend, extended into London open · RSI 79 · price 0.8312
Asian range break above 0.8300, HH/HL chain since 00:00 UTC.
USD/CHF cleared the 0.8300 round number and the Asian range top in the hour before London open, printing a session high at 0.8313 as the USD held two-week highs into FOMC. RSI(14) near 79 is stretched; the 38.2% retracement of the move off the 0.8283 asian low sits on 0.8300, with yesterday's prior high at 0.8294 below.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82943, 0.82831
Resistance: 0.8313, 0.8320
What it said to watch
Close back below the 0.8300 round number puts price back inside the Asian range and fails the breakout
Clearance of the 0.8313 session high exposes the 0.8320 psych level
Loss of rising support near 0.8302 breaks the higher-low chain from the Asia session
Swiss ZEW at 09:00 UTC and FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:02 UTC
Uptrend, RSI stretched · RSI 77 · price 0.83098
Breakout above Asian range and 0.8300, higher highs into London open.
USDCHF broke out of the 0.8295–0.8301 Asian range late in the session, clearing the 0.8300 round number to a session high at 0.8310 as the USD extended to two-week highs ahead of FOMC. RSI(14) is near 77, and the 38.2% fib of the asia low-to-high rally sits at 0.8300, with the rising trendline just beneath.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82946, 0.82831
Resistance: 0.83103, 0.8320
What it said to watch
A M15 close back below the 0.8300 round number returns price to the Asian range and weakens the breakout read
Loss of the 0.8295 range base and the rising trendline exposes the 0.8283 asia low
A close above the 0.8310 session high opens 0.8320
Swiss ZEW at 09:00 UTC is a minor intraday risk for CHF
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:47 UTC
Uptrend, extending into London open · RSI 73 · price 0.83067
HH/HL chain from 0.8283 Asian low; 0.8300 cleared.
Asia climbed 25 pips off the 0.8283 Asian low, cleared Tuesday's prior high at 0.8294 and then the 0.8300 psych level after a three-hour base. It printed a session high at 0.83085 ahead of London open, on USD firmness at two-week highs into FOMC. RSI(14) near 73 is hot but not extreme, ATR is a tight 2.5 pips, and the rising support line sits just under 0.8300.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82945, 0.82831
Resistance: 0.83085, 0.8320
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 0.8300 psych and the rising support line would mark a failed breakout
Loss of the 0.8294 prior high reopens the 0.8283 Asian low
Acceptance above the 0.83085 session high exposes the 0.8320 round number
FOMC statement 18:00 UTC and Powell 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; pair is stretched after four straight gains
06:17 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 67 · price 0.83023
HH/HL chain off the Asian low, marginal break above 0.8300.
Asia session rallied from the 0.8283 asian low through yesterday's 0.8294 high. Price is now edging above the 0.8300 round number, with a new session high at 0.83035 ahead of London open, as USD stays firm into today's FOMC. Dips have held the 0.8295 swing low and a rising support line; RSI(14) near 67 is firm but not stretched.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82946, 0.82831
Resistance: 0.83035
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8300 round number would turn the break into a false break
Loss of the 0.8295 swing low exposes the 50% fib of the asian rally near 0.8293
Break of the 0.8283 asian low erases the overnight leg
Acceptance above the 0.83035 session high extends the HH chain
Swiss ZEW 09:00 UTC; FOMC 18:00 UTC and presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:02 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher in late Asia · RSI 66 · price 0.83023
HH/HL chain off the 0.8283 Asian low, marginal break of 0.8300.
USDCHF climbed from the 0.8283 Asian low to a fresh session high at 0.8302 into the London open, extending the pre-FOMC dollar bid. The pullback held 0.8295, the prior high from Tuesday's late session, and price is now edging through the 0.8300 round number on compressed ranges. RSI(14) is near 66.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82945, 0.82831
Resistance: 0.83023, 0.8320
What it said to watch
A close back below the 0.8300 round number would mark the push as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8295 prior high breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Sustained trade above the 0.8302 session high opens the next level at 0.8320
A move back toward the 0.8283 Asian low would negate the Asian uptrend
Swiss ZEW at 09:00 UTC and FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:46 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under 0.8300 · RSI 56 · price 0.82997
Asia breakout above prior-day high, now a tight box beneath the session high.
The Asian rally lifted USDCHF from the 0.8283 swing low through yesterday's 0.8294 high, extending the four-day USD bid ahead of today's FOMC. Price has since compressed in a 6-pip box between the 0.8295 range low and the 0.8301 session high at the 0.8300 psych level, with RSI(14) neutral and ATR near 2 pips into the London open.
Support: 0.82946, 0.82831
Resistance: 0.83012
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8301 session high clears the 0.8300 psych cap
Loss of the 0.8295 range low, which aligns with the 38.2% of the Asian rally, puts price back inside Tuesday's range and exposes the 0.8283 swing low
Swiss ZEW at 09:00 UTC, then FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the presser at 18:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asia breakout above prior high, tight consolidation below Asian high.
Asia cleared yesterday's 0.8294 prior high, running from the 0.8283 Asian low to a 0.8301 Asian high as USD stayed firm into today's FOMC. Since 01:45 UTC price has compressed in a 6-pip band between the 0.8295 range low and the round number, with RSI(14) neutral near 58 and ATR(14) about 2.2 pips heading into London open.
Support: 0.82946, 0.82831, 0.82757
Resistance: 0.83006
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8301 Asian high clears the round number
Loss of the 0.8295 range low puts the prior-high breakout at risk of a false break, with the Asia leg 61.8% at 0.8294
Break of the 0.8283 Asian low exposes yesterday's 0.8276 London low
Swiss ZEW at 09:00 UTC and FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:02 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under 0.8300 · RSI 54 · price 0.82983
Asia breakout above prior session high, tight consolidation below 0.8300.
Asia rallied from the 0.82831 asian low through Tuesday's 0.8294 high and tagged a 0.83006 session high, in line with the firm USD tone into FOMC. Since then price has held a 5-pip box between the 0.82946 range low and the 0.8300 round number ahead of London open. That range low sits just above the 38.2% fib of the Asia leg, and the session high is still capping.
Support: 0.82946, 0.82831
Resistance: 0.83006, 0.8320
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.83006 session high clears the 0.8300 round number and opens the 0.8320 next pivot
Failure to hold the 0.82946 range low puts price back inside Tuesday's range and exposes the 0.82831 asian low
FOMC at 18:00 UTC, press conference 18:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
04:47 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 61 · price 0.82992
HH/HL from 0.8283 rally base; break of prior high 0.8294 retested and held.
Asia session rallied about 17 pips from the 0.8283 rally base, cleared yesterday's 0.8294 prior high and tagged 0.8300 at a 0.83006 session high. The pullback stalled at a 0.8295 swing low, a shallow retest of the broken prior high, and price is back at the session high into late Asia, extending USD's gains on Tuesday's data beats ahead of FOMC.
Support: 0.82946, 0.82831
Resistance: 0.83006
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.83006 session high clears the 0.8300 resistance flagged into the Fed
Failure to hold the 0.8295 swing low turns the breakout into a false break and exposes the 0.8283 rally base
Swiss ZEW at 09:00 UTC lands early in London hours
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia breakout above prior-day high, tight range under session high.
Asia rallied from the 0.8283 Asian low after the rollover gap, cleared Tuesday's 0.8294 prior high and tagged 0.8301 session high on the firm-USD tone from Tuesday's data beats. Since then price has held a retest of the prior high and compressed in a 5-pip band just under 0.8300, above a line of Asia rising lows, with ATR(14) shrinking to about 2.5 pips ahead of London.
Support: 0.82945, 0.8292, 0.82831
Resistance: 0.83006, 0.8320
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8301 session high opens the 0.8320 next level flagged in the Fed scenarios
Loss of the 0.8295 prior high retest puts the 0.8292 fib 50% of the Asia leg in play
Break of the 0.8283 Asian low would unwind the full Asia breakout
Swiss ZEW at 09:00 UTC and London open could expand the compressed range
FOMC 18:00 UTC with presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read around 0.8300
04:16 UTC
Uptrend, pausing under 0.8300 · RSI 63 · price 0.82988
Asia breakout above prior NY high, tight consolidation below 0.8300.
Asia rallied from the 0.8283 asian low through yesterday's NY prior high at 0.8294 and tagged the 0.8300 psych level at 0.83006, extending the pre-FOMC USD bid. Since 01:45 UTC price has held a tight 0.8295–0.8300 consolidation with RSI(14) near 63, and the 38.2% fib of the Asia leg sits on the prior high.
Support: 0.82943, 0.82831
Resistance: 0.83006, 0.8320
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8300 asian high opens the path toward the 0.8320 next level
Failure to hold the 0.8294 prior high / 38.2% fib shifts focus back to the 0.8283 asian low
London open in ~3h and Swiss ZEW at 09:00 UTC could break the consolidation
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30) could materially shift this read
Asia breakout above prior high, tight box under 0.8300.
The Asia session dipped to its 0.8283 Asia low, then cleared Tuesday's late-NY prior high at 0.8294 and tagged the 0.8300 round number at 0.83006. Price has held a tight 0.8295–0.8300 box since, with the 0.8295 pullback low near the 38.2% fib of the Asia leg and RSI(14) cooling to about 59. Firm USD into the Fed is carrying the move, while supply is capping the round number.
Support: 0.82946, 0.82943, 0.82831
Resistance: 0.83006
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8301 (round number) extends the Asia breakout
Loss of the 0.8295 pullback low and the 0.8294 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break and expose the 0.8283 Asia low
Swiss ZEW at 09:00 UTC could jolt the London open range
FOMC at 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30) could materially shift this read
Asia breakout above Tuesday's range, retest holding.
Asia session lifted USDCHF out of Tuesday's 0.8280–0.8294 range to tag 0.8300 at the asian high of 0.83006. The 03:00 UTC pullback held 0.82946, a retest of the prior high near the 38.2% of the asia leg fib, with the rising asia trend intact and RSI(14) ~63. The pre-FOMC USD bid underpins the move.
Support: 0.82946, 0.82831
Resistance: 0.83006
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.83006 asian high clears the 0.8300 round number flagged as resistance
Failure to hold the 0.8295 prior high puts price back inside Tuesday's range and breaks the asia trend
Loss of the 0.8283 asian low would erase the Asia breakout
Swiss ZEW at 09:00 UTC during London, then FOMC at 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asia lifted USD/CHF from the 0.8283 Asia low through yesterday's late-NY prior high at 0.8294, then stalled at the 0.8300 Asian high. Price is holding a shallow retest above 0.8294, above the 38.2% of the Asia rally fib, with RSI(14) cooled to ~64 as USD firmness into FOMC remains the backdrop.
Support: 0.82943, 0.82831
Resistance: 0.83006
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8294 prior high turns the breakout into a false break and puts the 0.8283 Asia low back in view
Clean break of the 0.8300 Asian high extends the Asia rally structure
Swiss ZEW at 09:00 UTC and London open liquidity could test the Asian range edges
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30) could materially shift this read
Asia HH/HL leg stalled at 0.8300, shallow pullback holding above prior high.
The Asia session rallied about 17 pips from the 0.8283 asian low to tag 0.8300, extending the pre-FOMC USD bid. The session high at 0.8301 met rejection, and price is easing back above yesterday's 0.8294 prior high, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the Asia leg.
Support: 0.82943, 0.82919, 0.82831
Resistance: 0.83006
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8301 session high clears the 0.8300 rejection
Failure to hold the 0.8294 prior high puts the fib 50% at 0.8292 and the rising trendline in play
A break below the 0.8283 asian low unwinds the Asia leg
London open, then FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the 18:30 UTC presser, could materially shift this read
With USD firm into FOMC, the Asian leg ran from the 0.8283 asian low through Tuesday's 0.8294 prior high and tagged the 0.8300 session high, where supply capped it. Price is now holding 0.8295–0.8296 just above the prior high, which lines up with the 38.2% of the Asian leg. RSI(14) has cooled to 58 and ATR(14) is about 3 pips.
Support: 0.82943, 0.82831
Resistance: 0.83006, 0.8320
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8294 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break and expose the 0.8283 asian low
Acceptance above the 0.8300 session high would open 0.8320, the next res
Swiss ZEW at 09:00 UTC during London, then FOMC at 18:00 UTC with the presser at 18:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asia breakout above prior-day high, retest underway.
Mid-Asia session, price broke above Tuesday's prior high at 0.8294 and briefly cleared the 0.8300 round figure to a 0.8301 session high, in line with the pre-FOMC USD bid. It is now easing back to retest that prior high, with RSI(14) cooling to about 60 and higher lows holding from the 0.8283 asian low.
Support: 0.8294, 0.8292, 0.8283
Resistance: 0.8301
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.8294 prior high returns price to Tuesday's range and turns the breakout into a false break
Holding the 0.8292 fib 50% of the Asia leg keeps the higher-low sequence intact; losing it exposes the 0.8283 asian low
A close above the 0.8301 session high confirms acceptance over 0.8300
Swiss ZEW at 09:00 UTC and the FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Uptrend, pausing at 0.8300 · RSI 66 · price 0.82986
Asia breakout above prior high, higher lows.
The Asia session rallied steadily from the 0.8283 asian low through yesterday's 0.8294 prior high on pre-FOMC dollar firmness. The move printed a 0.8301 session high right at the 0.8300 psych level and is now stalling just below it. RSI(14) at 66 is warm but not stretched, ATR is about 3 pips, and the 0.8297 swing low marks the first higher low of the Asia rally.
Support: 0.82967, 0.82943, 0.82831
Resistance: 0.83006
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.8301 session high clears 0.8300 psych resistance.
A break of the 0.8297 swing low opens a pullback toward the 0.8294 prior high and the Asia rally fib 50% near 0.8292.
Failure to hold the 0.8294 prior high negates the breakout and reopens the 0.8283 asian low.
The FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
02:17 UTC
Uptrend, pressing 0.8300 · RSI 66 · price 0.82989
Asia breakout above prior-day high, higher lows since rollover.
The Asia rally from the 0.8283 Asia low cleared the prior high at 0.8294 and tagged 0.8300 (Asia high 0.83006). That extends a 24h grind up from 0.8273 as the USD holds two-week highs into today's FOMC. RSI(14) at 66 is firm but not stretched, and price is stalling just under the 0.8300 psych level.
Support: 0.82943, 0.82831, 0.82803
Resistance: 0.83006
What it said to watch
M15 acceptance above the 0.8300 Asia high extends the breakout; repeated rejection there keeps it a test of resistance
A drop back below the 0.8294 prior high turns the Asia breakout into a false break
Loss of the rising lows from the 0.8280 rollover low through the 0.8283 Asia low breaks the higher-low sequence
Swiss ZEW at 09:00 UTC and the FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30) could materially shift this read
Asia breakout above prior range top; HH/HL chain from 0.82831.
The Asia session ran about 17 pips from the 0.82831 asian low through the late-NY prior high at 0.82943. It tagged 0.83006 before the bar closed off its high, a mild rejection at the 0.8300 resistance the digest flags ahead of today's FOMC. The prior-day 0.8280–0.8293 range is now below price; RSI(14) is near 65 and ATR(14) is under 3 pips.
Support: 0.82943, 0.82831, 0.82803
Resistance: 0.83006
What it said to watch
Sustained M15 closes above the 0.83006 asia high would extend the breakout beyond 0.8300
A slip back below the 0.82943 prior high (near the 38.2% fib) would turn the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.82831 asian low reopens the 0.82803 range floor
Swiss ZEW at 09:00 UTC, then the FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC, could reshape the read around 0.8300
01:47 UTC
Uptrend, pressing 0.8300 · RSI 71 · price 0.83002
HH/HL chain intact; Asian session broke the prior high.
The Asian session extended the higher-high/higher-low chain off the 0.8283 Asian low, cleared Tuesday's 0.8294 prior high and tagged the 0.8300 round number, with RSI(14) near 71. The pre-FOMC USD bid that followed Tuesday's Durable Goods beat is behind the move. The rising trendline from Tuesday's Asian low has held every pullback since, including the 0.8280 swing low during the NY open.
Support: 0.82943, 0.82831, 0.8280
Resistance: 0.8300
What it said to watch
Sustained M15 closes above the 0.8300 round number extend the breakout; rejection there leaves the Asian leg fib (0.8294–0.8290) as the first pullback zone
A slip back below the 0.8294 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
A break of the 0.8283 Asian low and the rising trendline ends the HL chain, exposing the 0.8280 swing low
FOMC at 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30) could materially shift this read; Swiss ZEW at 09:00 UTC is a minor test
01:31 UTC
Uptrend, pressing 0.8300 · RSI 66 · price 0.82958
Higher lows since Tuesday; Asian break above prior high.
Early in the Asia session, price dipped to an asian low at 0.8283, then ran through Tuesday's prior high at 0.8293–94 to a 0.8297 session high. That puts it at the 0.8290–0.8300 round number zone flagged ahead of the Fed, with RSI(14) at 66 and not stretched. Rising lows from Tuesday's London session remain intact.
Support: 0.8293, 0.8289, 0.8283
Resistance: 0.8297, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8293 prior high turns the break into a false break
Loss of the fib 61.8 at 0.8289 and then the asian low at 0.8283 breaks the rising-lows sequence
M15 acceptance above the 0.8300 round number extends the session high breakout
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia break above NY range highs, higher lows from 0.8283.
Early Asia session cleared the 0.8292–0.8294 prior high band that capped NY three times. It set a session high at 0.8297 after dipping to the 0.8283 asia low at the open. USD firmness into the Fed has price pressing the 0.8300 round number, with RSI(14) near 67, firm but not stretched.
Support: 0.82943, 0.82831, 0.82803
Resistance: 0.82972, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8294 prior high marks a false break back inside the NY range
0.8300 round number: area to watch for rejection or acceptance above the session high
Loss of the 0.8283 asia low and the rising lows line breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the 0.8280 rollover low
Swiss ZEW at 09:00 UTC and the Fed decision at 18:00 UTC Wed could materially shift this read
01:03 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher in early Asia · RSI 66 · price 0.82951
Higher lows since 0.8273; breaking above the 0.8292–0.8294 cap.
Early Asia has pushed USDCHF to 0.8295, clearing the late-NY prior high at 0.8294 after the 0.8283 Asia low held at the open. Rising lows from 0.8273 remain intact, and the 0.8300 round number sits just overhead as the dollar holds firm into the Fed. RSI(14) at 66 is warm but not stretched, and ATR is a tight ~3 pips.
Support: 0.82943, 0.82831, 0.82803
Resistance: 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8294 prior high would mark a false break of the cap
Loss of the 0.8283 Asia low, then the 0.8280 swing low, breaks the rising-lows structure
0.8300 round number is the area to watch for rejection or acceptance
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and press conference 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off Tuesday's Asian low; flat cap near 0.8292 since London.
Since London, the climb from Tuesday's 0.8273 Asian low has compressed into a 0.8280–0.8294 band, with the range floor holding through NY and repeated caps near 0.8292. A firm USD into FOMC carried late NY to the 24h high at 0.8294. Early Wednesday Asia dipped to 0.8283, its asia low near the 50% fib, then recovered to retest the cap; RSI(14) is around 62.
Support: 0.82831, 0.8280
Resistance: 0.82943, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8294 24h high puts the 0.8300 round number in play
Failure back below the 0.8283 asia low reopens the 0.8280 range floor
FOMC at 18:00 UTC today, presser at 18:30, could materially shift this read
00:32 UTC
Sideways, upper half of range · RSI 53 · price 0.82884
0.8280–0.8294 range since London open, range top capping.
USD/CHF has held a 0.8280–0.8294 range since Tuesday's London open. The late-NY push to the 0.8294 range top was rejected just below the 0.8300 round number as the dollar stayed firm into the FOMC. Early Asia dipped to a 0.8283 session low and recovered to 0.8288, with RSI(14) near 53 and price sitting mid-range.
Support: 0.82831, 0.82801
Resistance: 0.82943, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8294 range top exposes the 0.8300 round number, the resistance flagged into the Fed
Loss of the 0.8280 range floor, which is the 61.8% retracement of the asian low–NY high leg, breaks the range to the downside
Asia session holding above the 0.8283 session low keeps price in the upper half of the range
Swiss ZEW at 09:00 UTC, then the Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Powell at 18:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
0.8280–0.8294 intraday range, repeated caps near the top, Asia printing a lower high at 0.8290.
USDCHF spent Tuesday's London and NY sessions boxed between the 0.8280 range floor and 0.8292–0.8294, with supply capping the top four times below the 0.8300 round number as the pre-Fed dollar bid stalled. Early Asia faded from the 0.8290 asian high to a 0.8283 asian low, retracing just over half of the rollover leg fib off 0.8280. RSI(14) sits near 44 with price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.82831, 0.8280
Resistance: 0.82905, 0.82943, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8283 asian low exposes the 0.8280 range floor, where demand stepped in four times
M15 close above the 0.8294 prior high breaks the range and puts the 0.8300 round number in play
Swiss ZEW at 09:00 UTC could set the London range
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC with Powell at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:02 UTC
Sideways, mid-range after rejection · RSI 46 · price 0.82879
London/NY range 0.8280–0.8294 above Asian range.
London broke above the Asian range high near 0.8284. Price then held a 0.8280–0.8294 range through NY, with the range floor tested four times as USD stayed firm into the Fed. A late-NY push to the 0.82943 day high met rejection into the rollover, and early Asia is drifting mid-range near 0.8288 with RSI(14) neutral.
Support: 0.8280, 0.82726
Resistance: 0.82943, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.82943 day high brings the 0.8300 round number into play
Failure to hold the 0.8280 range floor exposes the 0.82726 asian low
61.8% of the asian low-day high fib sits near 0.8281, aligned with the range floor
Swiss ZEW at 09:00 UTC is the nearer event; the Fed decision at 18:00 UTC Wed could materially shift this read