Higher-low sequence broken after double top near 0.8310.
USD/CHF built higher lows from Sunday's 0.8234 weekly open, driven by Monday's NY session, and reached a week high of 0.8313 at Wednesday's London open. The Fed hold then played out as a USD sell-the-fact: the 18:00 UTC bar spiked to 0.8309 and reversed, completing a double top and breaking the higher-low line. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 0.8290 and below EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 38, holding the fed low at 0.8275 just above the 50% fib of the week rally at 0.8271.
Support: 0.82755, 0.82709, 0.82521
Resistance: 0.82897, 0.8300, 0.8313
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 50% fib at 0.8271 would expose the monday low at 0.8252
Reclaim of ema20 (0.8290) and the 0.8300 psych level would neutralise the double top read
Week high at 0.8313 remains the cap on this week's rally structure
Core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~14h) could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Thursday; post-Fed dip below EMA20/50.
USD/CHF climbed from Thursday's 0.8192 low, filled Sunday's gap back to Friday's 0.8251 prior close and printed higher lows each session into a 0.8313 week high during London on Wednesday. The Fed hold at 18:00 UTC drew a spike to 0.8309 that met rejection. The USD then eased on Warsh's 'tightening is working' line, taking price to a 0.8276 post-Fed low, below both EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 37. The week's impulse has slipped through its 23.6% retracement, and the 38.2% fib at 0.8267 sits alongside the higher-low trendline from Thursday.
Support: 0.8276, 0.8267, 0.8251
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8309, 0.8313
What it said to watch
Core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~14.5h) could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 38.2% fib and higher-low trendline near 0.8267 breaks the week's higher-low sequence
Failure to hold the 0.8251 prior close exposes Sunday's 0.8234 weekly open
Recovery above the 0.8300 round number and the 0.8309 Fed spike high reopens the 0.8313 week high
Rising trendline broken; Wednesday range lost, testing 38.2% fib.
Higher lows along a rising trendline carried the pair from Monday's 0.8229 low, just under the 0.8234 week open, to a 0.8313 week high at Wednesday's London open, where it met an immediate rejection. The 0.8292–0.8307 Wednesday range gave way around the Fed decision as Warsh's 'tightening is working' line softened the USD, taking price through the trendline and back below EMA(20) near 0.8295. Price is now sitting on the 38.2% retracement of the week's impulse near 0.8281, just above the Fed low at 0.8276, with RSI(14) back near 38.
Support: 0.82755, 0.82709, 0.82341
Resistance: 0.8295, 0.8313, 0.8320
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 0.8276 Fed low exposes the fib 50% at 0.8271, then the week open at 0.8234
A recovery back above EMA(20) near 0.8295 and the 0.8300 handle would put the broken rising trendline and the week high at 0.8313 back in play
0.8320 major res has not been tested this week. A close above it would extend the week's impulse
Core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~15.5h) could materially shift this read
20:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum rolling over after the Fed · RSI 39 · price 0.82794
Higher-low sequence broken; first lower low after the FOMC spike.
USD/CHF built higher lows from Monday's 0.8229 open to a week high of 0.8313 in early London Wednesday, with dips holding EMA(20) through Tuesday as hot US data and hawkish-hold expectations kept CHF soft. The Fed-hold bar spiked to 0.8309, was rejected below the week high and dropped to 0.8276, breaking the rising trendline and taking price below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 39. Price now sits on the 38.2% retrace of the week's impulse, with the FOMC low as first support.
Support: 0.8276, 0.8261, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8293, 0.8313, 0.8320
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 0.8276 FOMC low extends the pullback toward the 61.8% fib at 0.8261, which lines up with Tuesday's low
A break of the 0.8250 round number would unwind most of the week's impulse
Recovery above EMA(20) near 0.8293 and 0.8300 would restore the higher-low read; the 0.8313 week high and 0.8320 major res sit above
The Warsh presser in progress and Thursday 12:30 UTC GDP/core PCE could materially shift this read
Higher highs into 0.8313, rising trendline broken, ranging under 0.8300.
USD/CHF climbed from last Thursday's 0.8192 monthly low to a week high of 0.8313 at Wednesday's London open. The advance came mostly through London and NY hours as hawkish Fed pricing and a slump in Swiss ZEW expectations weighed on CHF. The FOMC hold printed a 33-pip two-way bar from 0.8276 to 0.8309 and closed back under the 0.8300 round number. That break took price through the rising tl off Tuesday's lows and below EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 39 and price sitting on the 23.6% fib of the week's rally.
Support: 0.8284, 0.8276, 0.8252
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8313, 0.8320
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8276 fed low exposes the 38.2% fib near 0.8249 and the 0.8252 swing low from Monday's NY session
Recovery above the 0.8300 round number and back over the broken rising tl would put the 0.8313 week high back in play
A break of the 0.8320 major res would extend the week's higher-high sequence
The Warsh press conference in progress and Thu 12:30 UTC GDP/core PCE could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Monday; tight 0.8288–0.8308 range under 0.8313 week high.
USD/CHF has stepped higher since Monday's 0.8234 open on hawkish-Fed and December-hike pricing. The NY sessions on Monday and Tuesday did most of the lifting, leaving a run of higher lows along a rising trendline. Wednesday's 0.8313 week high printed into the London open, short of the 0.8320 major res. Since then price has compressed in a 0.8288–0.8308 range, slipping just under the ema20 near 0.8300 with RSI(14) back to ~49 and the ATR contracting into the Fed decision.
Support: 0.8288, 0.8281, 0.8255
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8313, 0.8320
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR near 9 pips understates event range
H1 close below the 0.8288 session low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the fib 38.2 at 0.8281
Acceptance below 0.8281 shifts focus to the friday high near 0.8255 and the 0.8250 support
H1 close above the 0.8313 week high puts the 0.8320 major res in play
Thursday 12:30 UTC core PCE and jobless claims are the next scheduled USD risk
Higher lows since Thursday's 0.8192 low, now ranging below the week high.
USD/CHF has made higher lows each session since Thursday's 0.8192 low, with London driving the Monday and Tuesday legs as solid US data and December-hike pricing lifted the dollar. The four-day run was rejected at the 0.8313 week high in the run-up to the NY open, and price has since ranged 0.8292–0.8307 before a 16:00 UTC drop to a 0.8288 NY low. That move put price back below EMA(20), left it just above EMA(50) and pulled RSI(14) back to the mid-40s. Price is now testing the rising trendline from Thursday's low.
Support: 0.8288, 0.8280, 0.8267
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8313, 0.8320
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh's press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 0.8288 NY low and the 0.8280 day low would break the week's higher-low sequence and expose the fib 38.2 near 0.8267
Reclaiming the 0.8300 round number keeps the 0.8313 week high and 0.8320 major res in play
Thu 12:30 UTC core PCE is the next scheduled risk to the read
Higher lows since Monday, now compressing under 0.8313.
USD/CHF has printed higher lows every day since the week opened near Friday's close around 0.8251. London and NY sessions drove most of the climb, helped by hawkish-hold Fed hopes and the weak Swiss ZEW. Today's London open spike to the 0.8313 week high reversed within the hour, leaving a rejection below the 0.8320 key resistance. Since then price has compressed between today's low at 0.8292 and 0.8307, sitting on a flattening EMA(20), while RSI(14) has cooled from overbought to the high 50s.
Support: 0.8292, 0.8280, 0.8251
Resistance: 0.8313, 0.8320
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh's 18:30 UTC press conference can break the 0.8292–0.8313 compression either way
H1 close above the 0.8313 week high and 0.8320 key resistance would extend the higher-high sequence
A close below today's low at 0.8292 breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 0.8280 Asian low near the 23.6% rally fib
A move back below 0.8280 would turn attention to the 38.2% rally fib near 0.8267 and to Friday's close at 0.8251
Thursday's core PCE could reset the post-Fed structure
15:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalling below the week high · RSI 56 · price 0.83019
Higher lows at each daily open since Monday, compressing under 0.8313.
USD/CHF has stair-stepped higher from Monday's 0.8234 weekly open. Higher lows printed at each daily open (0.8261 Tuesday, 0.8280 Wednesday) as the USD stayed firm on hot US data and hawkish-hold expectations into the Fed. The push to a 0.8313 week high ahead of London open on Wednesday met supply, and price has since compressed around the 0.8300 psych level just above EMA(20). The pullback low at 0.8292 is sitting on the rising trendline, and RSI(14) has cooled to the mid-50s.
Support: 0.82983, 0.82918, 0.82803
Resistance: 0.8313, 0.8320
What it said to watch
H1 close below the rising trendline and pullback low at 0.8292 breaks the higher-low sequence; the day low at 0.8280 aligns with the 38.2% fib of the week move
H1 close above the 0.8313 week high opens the 0.8320 upper cap flagged in the macro read
Sustained trade below EMA(20) with RSI(14) under 50 would confirm momentum fading from the week high
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Friday, tight range under 0.8313.
USD/CHF has set a higher low every day since Friday's 0.8192 trough on firm US data and hawkish-hold Fed pricing. Monday's NY session drove the main leg, and Tuesday's London hours extended it. Today's push to the 0.8313 week high was rejected ahead of London open. Price has since compressed between the 0.8292 session low and 0.8307, holding above EMA(20) and leaning on the rising trendline from Monday's lows, with RSI(14) easing to the high 50s.
Support: 0.8292, 0.8280, 0.8252
Resistance: 0.8313, 0.8320
What it said to watch
H1 close below the rising trendline and the 0.8292 session low would break the higher-low sequence
Failure to hold the 0.8280 asian low exposes the fib 50% retracement of the week's move near 0.8252
H1 close above the 0.8313 week high puts the 0.8320 resistance in play
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh's press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; US PCE follows Thursday 12:30 UTC
Higher lows since Monday; pullback holding rising trendline.
The Friday-to-Wednesday rally off the 0.8192 low has built higher lows from Monday's 0.8234 weekly open, with advances led by London and early NY hours as USD stayed bid on firm US data and hawkish-hold Fed hopes. London open today printed a week high at 0.8313 that was rejected inside the hour. Since then, lower highs near 0.8307 and a dip to the 0.8292 day low have held at the rising trendline, with price just above EMA(20) and RSI(14) near 58 into FOMC.
Support: 0.82918, 0.8280, 0.82341
Resistance: 0.83066, 0.8313, 0.8320
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8292 day low and rising trendline would break the week's higher-low sequence and expose Tuesday's lows at 0.8280
H1 close above the 0.8313 week high opens the path to next resistance at 0.8320
Failure to hold the 0.8280 Tuesday lows brings the 0.8234 weekly open back into view
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Thursday 12:30 UTC core PCE and jobless claims are a second event risk
Higher lows since Friday, testing rising trendline.
USD/CHF has stepped higher since Friday's 0.8192 low, printing a higher low each session as USD firmed into FOMC. Monday's London-to-NY leg was the dominant move of the week. Early London today pushed to a 0.8313 week high that was rejected, and price has slipped back onto the higher-lows trendline near 0.8295, sitting just below EMA(20) and under the 0.8300 psych level with RSI(14) cooling to the mid-50s.
Support: 0.8295, 0.8280, 0.8261
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8313
What it said to watch
H1 close below the trendline and the 0.8280 day low would break the higher-low sequence
Loss of the 0.8261 prior low puts the 38.2% fib of the week rally near 0.8267 in play
H1 close back above the 0.8300 psych level and the 0.8313 week high reopens the 0.8320 area cited in the macro digest
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US core PCE on Thu at 12:30 UTC is the next event risk
Higher lows every session since Friday's 0.8192 low; consolidation after rejection at 0.8313.
USDCHF has stepped up from Friday's 0.8192 low with a higher low each session. Each Asia-open dip was absorbed and the gains came mainly in London hours, as firm US data and pre-FOMC dollar demand rebuilt the bid. Today's London-open push printed a 0.8313 week high but was rejected, and price is now consolidating just above the 0.8300 psych/ema20 area, with RSI(14) near 66 holding below overbought and the higher-low trendline intact.
Support: 0.8299, 0.8280, 0.8234
Resistance: 0.8313, 0.8320
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 0.8280 wed low and the higher-low trendline would break this week's stepping structure
A close above the 0.8313 week high exposes major res at 0.8320, flagged as a hard cap in the macro read
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a dovish tilt has more room to unwind the rally
Weekly open at 0.8234 sits near the 61.8% level of the 0.8192–0.8313 fib, the deeper retracement reference
Thursday 12:30 UTC Core PCE is the next scheduled risk to the structure
Higher lows every session; 0.8300 breakout being retested.
USDCHF has climbed steadily from the 0.8229 low set at the Sunday open, printing higher lows each session as haven demand unwound and USD firmed into FOMC. London open today pushed through the 0.8300 round number to a 0.8313 week high, then rejected. The pullback held at 0.8300 and the ema20 near 0.8298, with RSI(14) at 64, short of overbought.
Support: 0.8300, 0.8298, 0.8280
Resistance: 0.8313, 0.8354
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a dovish tilt has room to unwind the four-day run
H1 close back below the 0.8300 round number would turn the London breakout into a false break
Loss of the tue low near 0.8280 breaks the rising lows trendline and the 38.2% of the week impulse
Close above the 0.8313 week high opens the path to next res at 0.8354
Thursday's Core PCE and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC are the follow-up risk after the Fed
09:04 UTC
Uptrend, extended at week high · RSI 66 · price 0.83043
Higher lows each session since Thursday's low; first retest of 0.8300 after Wednesday's break.
USD/CHF has set higher lows every session since Thursday's 0.8192 low. Monday's NY session drove the main leg of the rally as firm US data and pre-FOMC USD demand drained CHF haven bid. Tuesday then compressed between the tue low at 0.8276 and the tue high at 0.8294. Asia session strength on Wednesday carried price through the 0.8300 psych level to a 0.8313 week high into the London open, where it was rejected back to 0.8298. Price holds above EMA(20) near 0.8296, with RSI(14) easing from the mid-70s to around 66. The 38.2% retracement of the rally sits near 0.8267, just under the tue low.
Support: 0.8300, 0.82943, 0.82757
Resistance: 0.8313, 0.8354
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh's press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a balanced or dovish hold puts the 0.8300 psych break at risk
An H1 close back below the tue high at 0.8294 would turn Wednesday's 0.8300 break into a false break
Loss of the tue low at 0.8276 together with the higher-low trendline (~0.8293 now) breaks the four-day higher-low sequence and exposes the 38.2% rally retracement near 0.8267
Clearance of the 0.8313 week high leaves 0.8354 as the next upside ref
Stair-step higher lows since Monday open, sitting on the 0.8300 round number.
USDCHF has made higher lows every session since the week opened near 0.8234. The impulse from last Thursday's 0.8192 low accelerated in Monday's NY session, and Tuesday's firm durables beat extended it. Early Wednesday the pair pushed through the 0.8300 round number to a session high at 0.8313, but that bar was rejected straight back to 0.8300. RSI(14) is near 63, off overbought, and price is holding above EMA(20) around 0.8295, which tracks the higher-low trendline near 0.8292.
Support: 0.8300, 0.8292, 0.8280
Resistance: 0.8313, 0.8354
What it said to watch
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Powell at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the digest flags a less-hawkish tone as the larger risk to a stretched USD
H1 close back below the higher-low trendline near 0.8292 would break the stair-step structure
Failure to hold the tue low at 0.8280 would mark the first lower low of the week and expose the fib 38.2% near 0.8267
H1 close above the 0.8313 session high reopens 0.8320, with the 0.8354 upside ext beyond
Repeated rejection at 0.8313 above the 0.8300 round number would point to the impulse stalling into FOMC
07:03 UTC
Uptrend, extended into FOMC · RSI 74 · price 0.83111
Higher highs and higher lows since the weekly open; Asia break above 0.8300.
USD/CHF has set higher lows every session since Monday's weekly open at 0.8234, extending the rally off Thursday's 0.8192 low as firm US data (durables 1.8% vs 0.6%, CB confidence 91.7) lifted the Dollar through London and NY hours. Asia pushed through the 0.8300 round number and the London open added to it, leaving price at the 0.8311 week high with the rising ema20 near 0.8294 beneath. RSI(14) sits in the mid-70s, in overbought territory, with the 0.8320 UOB level the next reference above.
Support: 0.8300, 0.8294, 0.82341
Resistance: 0.83111, 0.8320
What it said to watch
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Powell at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the digest flags a neutral Fed as the larger-move risk for the pair
H1 close back below the 0.8300 round number would turn the Asia breakout into a false break
Break of the higher-lows trendline near 0.8291 and the ema20 exposes the 38.2% of the rally fib near 0.8266
Acceptance above the 0.8311 week high opens the 0.8320 UOB level, then 0.8354
Higher highs and higher lows since Thursday's 0.8192 low; tight Asian push to week high.
USDCHF has climbed for a fourth session from Thursday's 0.8192 low, the only real gap being Monday's 17-pip down-open at 0.8234 that filled in the London-NY transition. Since then the pair has printed steady higher lows along the rising trendline as haven demand for CHF faded and the USD firmed into FOMC. Asia today pushed price to a 0.83023 week high just through the 0.8300 round number, with the ema20 near 0.8292 and RSI(14) near 70 marking a stretched, low-range advance (ATR around 6 pips).
Support: 0.8300, 0.8292, 0.8280
Resistance: 0.83023, 0.8320
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Powell presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 closes holding above the 0.8300 round number keep the week high break intact; acceptance above opens the path to the 0.8320 next level
An H1 close back below the ema20 near 0.8292 marks the first loss of momentum this week
Failure to hold the 0.8280 wed low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low sequence
Thursday core PCE (f/c 0.3% m/m) as follow-through on the FOMC read
Higher highs and higher lows from the 0.8192 double bottom, ranges compressing beneath 0.8300.
USD/CHF has stair-stepped higher since the double bottom near 0.8192 on Thursday and Friday. It cleared the 0.8244 neckline in Monday's NY session as firm US data and pre-FOMC dollar demand lifted it from the 0.8234 weekly open. Tuesday held a tight 0.8273–0.8294 band above EMA(20), now near 0.8292, and the Asia session pushed to a 0.8301 week high, with hourly ranges shrinking and RSI(14) around 66, just shy of overbought.
Support: 0.8294, 0.8273, 0.8234
Resistance: 0.8301, 0.8320
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; guidance on further hikes is the swing factor
H1 close above the 0.8301 week high and 0.8300 psych exposes the next level at 0.8320
Failure to hold the Tuesday high at 0.8294 and EMA(20) puts the Tuesday low at 0.8273 back in play
Break of the higher-lows trendline and the 0.8234 weekly open would undercut the double bottom structure; the 50% fib of the 0.8192-0.8301 rally sits near 0.8246
Higher highs/lows since Thu low, compressing under 0.8300.
USD/CHF has printed higher highs and higher lows since the 0.8191 double bottom on Thursday and Friday. Monday's London-into-NY leg from the weekly open did most of the work as firm US data lifted the dollar. Since Tuesday's London session the advance has compressed into a roughly 20-pip band above the Tuesday base at 0.8280, with Asia nudging a fresh week high at 0.8301 while RSI(14) near 66 stays short of overbought; price sits above the EMA20 at 0.8289 and a shallow rising line off Tuesday's lows.
Support: 0.8289, 0.8280, 0.8259
Resistance: 0.8301
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 0.8301 week high clears the 0.8290–0.8300 cap; repeated rejection there keeps the compression read intact
A break of the Tuesday base at 0.8280 and the rising line opens a deeper retracement of the Thursday-to-Wednesday impulse toward the 38.2% fib at 0.8259
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC today (presser 18:30 UTC) could materially shift this read; the digest flags a neutral hold as a rejection risk below 0.8300
Thursday 12:30 UTC core PCE is the follow-through test for any post-Fed move
Higher lows since Friday's double bottom; tight Tuesday range under the week high.
USD/CHF has climbed steadily from the 0.8191 double bottom set Thursday and Friday. Monday opened on a gap down at the 0.8234 weekly open, then London and NY drove the main leg to 0.8277. Tuesday's firm durable goods beat extended the grind along a rising trendline of higher lows, and today's Asia session tagged a 0.8301 week high at the 0.8300 round number. Momentum is fading: RSI(14) sits near 60 and Tuesday's range compressed to roughly 12 pips above the 0.8282 tue base, with price still holding above EMA(20).
Support: 0.8282, 0.8251, 0.8234
Resistance: 0.83006, 0.8320
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8300 week high opens the path to 0.8320 next res
Break of the 0.8282 tue base and the rising trendline exposes the 0.8251 prior close, near the 38.2% fib of the Friday–Wednesday leg
Loss of 0.8251 brings the 0.8234 weekly open, aligned with the 61.8% fib, back into view
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and press conference 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Thursday's core PCE at 12:30 UTC is the follow-through test after the Fed
02:02 UTC
Uptrend, pressing 0.8300 · RSI 64 · price 0.8298
Higher highs and higher lows since Thursday's 0.8191 low; rising trendline intact.
The pair carved a double bottom at 0.8191–0.8192 across Thursday and Friday, then climbed steadily through Monday's 0.8234 weekly open. Pullbacks have since found the rising trendline and EMA(20) in each London and NY session, helped by the firm US data run (Durable Goods 1.8% vs 0.6%). Early Asia today printed a 0.8301 week high right at the 0.8300 psych level. RSI(14) sits near 64, firm but not stretched, and hourly ranges are compressing to about 7 pips ahead of the Fed. Wednesday's 0.8280 low and Tuesday's 0.8273 low mark the latest higher lows beneath price.
Support: 0.8288, 0.8280, 0.8273
Resistance: 0.8301, 0.8320
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8300 week high opens the 0.8320 next level; repeated rejection there leaves a cap in place under 0.8300
Failure to hold the 0.8280 wed low and 0.8273 tue low would break the higher-low sequence and the rising trendline
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC today (presser 18:30) could materially shift this read; Swiss ZEW at 09:00 UTC comes first
A sustained move back below ema20 near 0.8288 would mark the first loss of momentum this week
01:03 UTC
Uptrend, pressing week high · RSI 62 · price 0.82956
Higher lows since 0.8192 double bottom, testing 0.8300.
USD/CHF has stepped higher since Thursday–Friday's 0.8192 double bottom. Monday's London and NY sessions drove the main leg from the 0.8234 weekly open, Tuesday ground up to 0.8293, and the Asia session today printed a fresh week high at 0.8296 just under the 0.8300 round number. Price holds above EMA(20) near 0.8288 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 62 and no overbought reading. The firm US data mix and pre-Fed dollar demand explain the three-day recovery, and pullbacks have held the rising trendline and the 0.8280 pullback low.
Support: 0.8288, 0.8280, 0.8252
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8320
What it said to watch
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC with the presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hawkish hold is largely priced in
An H1 close above the 0.8300 round number opens the next level at 0.8320
Loss of the 0.8280 pullback low and the rising trendline would break the higher-low sequence and expose the 0.8252 prior close near the 38.2% fib of the double bottom leg
Thursday 12:30 UTC core PCE (f/c 0.3% MoM) is the follow-through test after the Fed
Higher highs and higher lows off a 0.8191 double bottom; tight range under the week high.
Thursday's 0.8191 low and Friday's 0.8192 retest formed a double bottom, and the Thursday-to-Tuesday rally has since built higher highs and higher lows above the prior close at 0.8251. Firm USD into FOMC carried Monday's London and NY sessions, and Tuesday's durable goods beat added to the move. Tuesday's London and NY sessions stalled into the 0.8290 cap, with the week high at 0.8294. Price is pinned near EMA(20) in a tight consolidation, the Wednesday open dip held the higher low at 0.8280, and RSI(14) has cooled to the high-50s.
Support: 0.8280, 0.8261, 0.8251
Resistance: 0.8294, 0.8300
What it said to watch
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC and the 18:30 presser could materially shift this read; December-hike guidance is the swing factor
H1 close above the 0.8300 round number clears the week high and the 0.8290 cap
Failure to hold the 0.8280 higher low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes Tuesday's low at 0.8261, then the prior close at 0.8251 near the 38.2% retracement of the Thursday-to-Tuesday rally
Core PCE Thu 12:30 UTC is the follow-on risk for the uptrend structure