Lower highs from 0.8313; Wed–Thu range broken lower.
USD/CHF climbed from Monday's 0.8232 low to a 0.8313 week high at Wednesday's London open, then printed lower highs after the Fed decision. Thursday's NY session broke the rising support and the 0.8257 broken shelf despite USD-supportive GDP and claims prints, pointing to CHF demand. A late-session leg erased the week's gains and pushed price back below the 0.8238 weekly open. RSI(14) near 23 is oversold with price about 35 pips under EMA(20) at 0.8261, and the 0.8223 week low is the first test.
Support: 0.8223, 0.8200, 0.8191
Resistance: 0.8238, 0.8257, 0.8313
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.8238 weekly open would mark the late-NY leg as a false break
Rejection below the 0.8257 broken shelf, which sits at the 38.2% fib, keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
Failure to hold the 0.8223 week low exposes the 0.8200 round number and the 0.8191 prior low
US ECI at 12:30 UTC Fri and Daly/Musalem at 16:00/16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Wednesday's 0.8313 peak; Tue–Wed range floor broken.
USDCHF has unwound the week's entire rally. The Monday–Wednesday climb off the 0.8232 week low topped at 0.8313 and gave way to lower highs, and Thursday's NY session broke the 0.8272 range floor. That break came despite the USD-positive US data dump, with the soft GDP deflator the likely offset. A late-NY leg then cleared the 0.8250 weekly open and the 0.8257 prior shelf, leaving price at 0.8240 below EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 26 oversold and the 38.2% fib of the Wednesday-high-to-low drop near 0.8264.
Support: 0.8232, 0.8200
Resistance: 0.8250, 0.8257, 0.8272
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.8250 weekly open returns price to Monday's range and softens the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 0.8232 week low exposes the 0.8200 round number
A new low with a higher RSI(14) reading would mark bullish divergence off oversold
Reclaim of the 0.8272 range floor and the lower highs trendline would invalidate the range break
US ECI Fri 12:30 UTC and Daly/Musalem remarks could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday; Thursday double top broke and price now sits just above the week open.
The Monday–Wednesday rally from the 0.8229 week low to 0.8313 has been about 87% unwound, with lower highs since Wednesday's peak. Thursday's double top at 0.8297 gave way in the first hour of NY after the US data. The softer deflator, spending and income details outweighed the GDP and claims beats on this pair, and the 0.8272 base broke. A late-NY leg then cut through the 0.8257 prior lows to 0.8239, leaving price below an EMA(20) near 0.8272, just above the week open at 0.8234 and with RSI(14) oversold near 25.
Support: 0.82341, 0.82287, 0.8200
Resistance: 0.8257, 0.8272, 0.8297
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.8257 prior lows would mark the late-NY break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8229 week low exposes the 0.8200 round number
A recovery through the lower highs line near 0.8297 negates the double top read
US ECI Q3 (Fri 12:30 UTC, f/c 0.8%) and Fed's Daly/Musalem could materially shift this read
Oversold RSI(14) near the week open; a bullish divergence on any new low would signal fading downside momentum
USD/CHF climbed from Monday's 0.8229 week low to the 0.8313 week high on Wednesday. The post-Fed spike to 0.8309 failed, and a sequence of lower highs has followed. Thursday's NY session saw a data spike to 0.8297 on the Q3 GDP beat fade quickly as the GDP deflator, income and spending misses came through, and price broke the 0.8272 broken shelf. It now sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) at the 61.8% retracement of the weekly rally near 0.8261, just above the 0.8257 day low, with RSI(14) in the mid-30s.
Support: 0.8257, 0.8250, 0.8229
Resistance: 0.8272, 0.8297, 0.8313
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 0.8257 day low and the 0.8250 round number extends the lower highs sequence toward the 0.8229 week low
A recovery back above the 0.8272 broken shelf and EMA(20) would neutralise Thursday's breakdown; the lower highs line near the 0.8297 data spike caps above that
Only a close above the 0.8313 week high would restore the weekly rally structure
US ECI Q3 (Fri 12:30 UTC, f/c 0.8%) and remarks from Fed's Daly and Musalem could materially shift this read
19:02 UTC
Pullback from week high, lower highs since Wednesday · RSI 34 · price 0.82618
Lower highs from 0.8313, Thursday range floor broken in NY hours.
The rally from Monday's 0.8229 week low peaked at a 0.8313 week high in Wednesday's London session. The post-Fed spike failed below that high, and Thursday's 0.8297 lower high capped the recovery. During NY hours the pair broke Thursday's 0.8272 range floor despite the USD-supportive GDP and claims data, printing a 0.8257 session low near the 61.8% fib of the week's rise, with RSI(14) near 34 and price below both EMAs (EMA20 near 0.8275).
Support: 0.8257, 0.8250, 0.8229
Resistance: 0.8272, 0.8297, 0.8313
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.8272 range floor and EMA20 would undo the range-break read
Failure to hold the 0.8257 session low exposes the 0.8250 round number, then the 0.8229 week low
A break of the lower highs line through 0.8297 reopens the 0.8313 week high
US Q3 ECI (Fri 12:30 UTC) and Fed's Daly/Musalem later Friday could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Wed peak; Wed-Thu range floor broken.
The rally from Monday's weekly open near 0.8234 ran into a rejection at the 0.8313 week high during Wednesday's London session, and the wide Fed-hour bar set a lower high at 0.8309. After Thursday's US data dump, the NY session broke the 0.8272 prior low that had floored the Wed-Thu range. The softer GDP deflator, income and spending details outweighed the GDP and claims beats, and price now sits at the 61.8% retracement of the week rally fib, just above the 0.8257 session low, with RSI(14) near 31 and price below EMA(20) around 0.8280.
Support: 0.8257, 0.8250, 0.8234
Resistance: 0.8272, 0.8280, 0.8313
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8257 session low and the 0.8250 psych level exposes the 78.6% fib near 0.8247 and the 0.8234 weekly open
H1 close back above the 0.8272 prior low and ema20 near 0.8280 would mark the break as a false break
RSI(14) near 30 into Asia; a higher RSI low on a new price low would flag bullish divergence
US Employment Cost Index (Fri 12:30 UTC, f/c 0.8%) and Fed's Daly/Musalem later Friday could materially shift this read
Lower highs trendline from the Fed-hour spike caps rebounds unless reclaimed toward the 0.8313 week high
Mon–Wed rally capped at 0.8313; lower highs since, range floor broken in Thu NY.
The week impulse from the 0.8229 week low, mostly driven in Monday's London session, topped at the 0.8313 week high early Wednesday. Since then the pair has printed lower highs: the Fed bar, Thursday's Asian high and a rejection at the 0.8297 lower high after the US data cluster. Despite the GDP and claims beats, the pair slid through NY hours, with the soft Q3 price-deflator detail the more visible influence here. Price broke the 0.8272 broken low and now sits on the 61.8% fib of the week impulse at 0.8261, below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 0.8261, 0.8252, 0.8229
Resistance: 0.8272, 0.8297, 0.8313
What it said to watch
Hourly closes back above the 0.8272 broken low would return price to the Wed–Thu range and weaken the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 0.8261 61.8% fib exposes the 0.8252 mon pullback, then the 0.8229 week low
A break of the lower highs trendline and 0.8297 would reopen the 0.8313 week high
Fri 12:30 UTC ECI (f/c 0.8%), Chicago PMI and Daly/Musalem remarks could materially shift this read
16:02 UTC
Pullback from week high, lower highs since Fed · RSI 40 · price 0.82689
Lower highs below 0.8313; Thursday range low broken in NY.
A London-led advance from Monday's 0.8229 low ran four sessions into the 0.8313 week high on Wednesday. Since the Fed's hawkish hold, lower highs near 0.8309, 0.8297 and 0.8295 have capped price. Into the NY session today, the in-line core PCE and soft GDP deflator gave no fresh USD impulse, and price dropped through the 0.8272 Thursday low to 0.8261, the 61.8% fib of the week's advance, leaving it below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 0.8261, 0.8250, 0.8234
Resistance: 0.8272, 0.8282, 0.8297
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.8272 Thursday low would mark today's break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8261 61.8% fib exposes the 0.8250 round number and the 0.8234 weekly open
Reclaiming ema20 near 0.8282 and then the 0.8297 lower highs would neutralise the post-Fed pullback read
US ECI Fri 12:30 UTC and Fed's Daly/Musalem from 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Wednesday's peak, Thursday range broken lower.
USDCHF climbed from Monday's 0.8229 gap-down low to a 0.8313 week high on Wednesday, but the Fed's hawkish hold produced a spike-and-reversal, and Thursday has printed lower highs beneath the 0.8297 Thu high. The GDP beat and in-line core PCE briefly lifted price in the first hour of NY before supply pushed it to a 0.8267 day low, back below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 41. Price now sits on the 50% retracement of the Mon–Wed rally, with the 61.8% fib at 0.8261 overlapping Tuesday's low.
Support: 0.8267, 0.8261, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8282, 0.8297, 0.8313
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 0.8261 61.8% fib and Tuesday low breaks the week's higher-low sequence, leaving the 0.8250 round number next
Recovery above the ema20 at 0.8282 and the lower-highs line would neutralise the pullback read, with the Thu high at 0.8297 still capping
The 0.8313 week high remains the ceiling of the Mon–Wed rally
ECI (Fri 12:30 UTC) and Fed's Daly/Musalem could materially shift this read
Post-FOMC range 0.8272–0.8297 after a broken Monday–Wednesday rising trendline.
Monday's London-led advance from the 0.8229 low ran to a 0.8313 week high at Wednesday's London open. The FOMC bar then broke the rising trendline as the hawkish-hold reaction faded. Since then price has rotated in a 0.8272–0.8297 range around the fib 38.2 of that advance: Thursday's low has held three tests, and the range top rejected again after the GDP beat and in-line core PCE during NY hours. Price sits just below EMA(20) near 0.8286, with RSI(14) around 46 and momentum flat inside the range.
Support: 0.8272, 0.8261, 0.8234
Resistance: 0.8286, 0.8297, 0.8313
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8272 Thursday low breaks the range and exposes the fib 61.8 at 0.8261, then the 0.8234 weekly open
Close back above the 0.8297 range top reopens the 0.8313 week high
Failure to reclaim EMA(20) at 0.8286 keeps the post-FOMC sequence of capped rallies intact
Friday's ECI at 12:30 UTC and the Daly/Musalem remarks could materially shift this read
13:03 UTC
Uptrend stalled, post-FOMC range · RSI 51 · price 0.82854
Mon–Wed higher lows into 0.8313; lower highs since, range 0.8272–0.8297.
USD/CHF climbed from the 0.8229 week low at Monday's open to a 0.8313 week high in Wednesday's London session, with daily lows stepping higher. The hawkish-hold FOMC bar then reversed price to 0.8276, and Thursday has ranged between the 0.8272 thu low, near the 50% fib of the week advance at 0.8271, and the 0.8297 thu high, carving lower highs from 0.8313. RSI(14) is near 51 and EMA(20)/EMA(50) have flattened together around 0.8286; the PCE/GDP release bar dipped to 0.8273 and recovered, a second rejection of that support after the Asia-session low.
Support: 0.8272, 0.8261, 0.8229
Resistance: 0.8297, 0.8313
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8272 thu low exposes the 61.8% fib at 0.8261, then the 0.8229 week low
A break of the lower highs line and a close above the 0.8297 thu high reopens the 0.8313 week high and the 0.8320 cap
PCE/GDP actuals are still filtering through and the ECB press conference is today; either could shift this read
Fri ECI at 12:30 GMT and Fed's Daly/Musalem later in the day are the next scheduled risk
Lower highs from 0.8313 week high; floor at 0.8272–0.8276.
Higher lows carried the pair from Monday's 0.8229 open to the 0.8313 week high in Wednesday's London session. The two-dissent Fed hold produced a rejection in NY that flushed price back toward 0.8276. Since then a 0.8272–0.8297 range has printed lower highs, with Thursday's 0.8272 low sitting on the 50% fib of the week's advance and the 0.8276 london lows holding twice. Price is coiling just under a flat ema cluster near 0.8287, with RSI(14) at a neutral 51.
Support: 0.8276, 0.8272, 0.8252
Resistance: 0.8287, 0.8297, 0.8313
What it said to watch
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC land inside the current bar and could materially shift this read; the ECB decision is also due today
H1 close below the 50% fib at 0.8272 breaks the range floor and exposes the 0.8261 61.8% level and the 0.8252 monday base
H1 close above the 0.8297 lower highs breaks the post-FOMC sequence and puts the 0.8313 week high back in play
Sustained trade back above the ema cluster near 0.8287 would mark the range resolving toward its upper half
Post-Fed consolidation 0.8272–0.8297 with lower highs below 0.8313.
The pair climbed steadily from the 0.8234 weekly open on Monday to a 0.8313 week high at Wednesday's London open, with dips finding the H1 EMA(20) along the way. The Fed hold and the dollar dip that followed sent price back to a 0.8272 post-Fed low, close to the 50% retracement of the week's leg. Since then, Thursday's Asia and London sessions have compressed between that low and a 0.8296 lower high, with price just under EMA(20) and EMA(50) and RSI(14) flat near 48.
Support: 0.8272, 0.8234
Resistance: 0.8296, 0.8313, 0.8320
What it said to watch
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
An H1 close above the 0.8296 lower high breaks the post-Fed lower-high sequence and puts the 0.8313 week high back in focus
Failure to hold the 0.8272 post-fed low exposes the weekly open at 0.8234
0.8320 major res remains the cap on the week's advance unless cleared on a closing basis
Lower highs from 0.8313 week high; post-Fed consolidation 0.8272–0.8297.
The weekly impulse ran from Monday's 0.8232 London low through successive London and NY sessions. It met rejection at Wednesday's 0.8313 week high in early European trade, and the Fed's hawkish hold then produced a 33-pip whipsaw bar into a 0.8281 close. Thursday's Asia low at 0.8272 held near the 50% retracement of that impulse. Price now sits just above flat EMA(20)/EMA(50) clustered near 0.8287, with RSI(14) at 48 and lower highs capping the move under the 0.8297 day high.
Support: 0.8272, 0.8263, 0.8234
Resistance: 0.8297, 0.8313, 0.8320
What it said to watch
Core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read; the USD digest flags 0.8265 on a soft core print, near the 61.8% fib.
An H1 close above the 0.8297 day high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.8313 week high, with 0.8320 major resistance above that.
Failure to hold the 0.8272 Asia low exposes the 61.8% fib at 0.8263; below there, the weekly open at 0.8234 comes back into view.
Lower highs below 0.8313 week high, range above post-Fed low.
USD/CHF climbed from Monday's 0.8229 low to a 0.8313 week high in early European trade Wednesday, with dips holding the rally trendline as carry demand weighed on CHF. That line gave way into the NY session before the Fed, and the hawkish hold with two hike dissents produced a whipsaw. Since then the pair has printed lower highs at 0.8297 and 0.8295, and the 0.8272 post-fed low sits near the 50% fib of the week's advance. Price is below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 47, a consolidation phase rather than renewed trend.
Support: 0.8272, 0.8261, 0.8234
Resistance: 0.8285, 0.8295, 0.8313
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8272 post-fed low exposes the 61.8% fib at 0.8261 and the 0.8234 weekly open
Recovery through the 0.8295 lower high and the lower-highs trendline reopens the 0.8313 week high
EMA20 near 0.8285 has capped Thursday's bounces; acceptance above it weakens the pullback read
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 GMT (~3.5h) could materially shift this read
USDCHF climbed from the 0.8234 weekly open on a steady run of higher lows into early London on Wednesday, printing the 0.8313 week high before the Fed hold pared the move. Two hike dissents were offset by Warsh giving no December steer, and that broke the week's uptrend line. Since then H1 has rotated between the 0.8272 post-fed low (Asia session) and a 0.8295 lower high into London open, with price back below EMA(20), RSI(14) near 44 and the close sitting on the 38.2% retracement of the week rally.
Support: 0.82716, 0.82511, 0.82341
Resistance: 0.82951, 0.8313
What it said to watch
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 GMT (~4.5h) could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 0.8272 post-fed low exposes the 50% retracement and the 0.8251 prior close
Reclaiming the 0.8295 lower high and 0.8300 psych reopens the 0.8313 week high
Extension below 0.8251 puts the 0.8234 weekly open back in focus and unwinds most of the week rally
Lower highs from 0.8313 week high; pullback into 38.2–50% retrace.
USD/CHF climbed from Monday's 0.8229 gap-low to a 0.8313 week high at Wednesday's London open. That high was rejected, and the post-Fed spike to 0.8309 faded as Warsh's 'tightening is working' line took some heat out of the USD. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 0.8289 after an Asia high at 0.8297 printed another lower high, while the 0.8272 session low tests the 50% retrace of the weekly advance and RSI(14) near 39 holds below the midline.
Support: 0.82716, 0.8261, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8289, 0.82971, 0.8313
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8272 session low exposes the 61.8% fib at 0.8261
Failure to hold 0.8261 opens the 0.8250 round number flagged as support around the Fed
Recovery above EMA(20) and the 0.8297 asia high would break the lower-highs sequence from the week high
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
Mon–Wed higher lows broken on Fed bar; basing above 0.8274.
USD/CHF climbed from Monday's 0.8229 low to a 0.8313 week high at Wednesday's London open. The Fed's hawkish hold and Warsh's less-hawkish press conference then broke the rally line and dropped the pair out of the 0.8292–0.8313 range to 0.8276. Since then, three tests of the post-Fed low near 0.8274 have held, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the week rally. The Asia-session spike to the 0.8297 bounce high was rejected back below EMA(20), and RSI(14) near 41 has cooled from earlier overbought readings.
Support: 0.8274, 0.8271, 0.8261
Resistance: 0.8297, 0.8313, 0.8320
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8274 post-fed low brings the 50% fib at 0.8271 and the Tuesday low at 0.8261 (61.8%) into view
Reclaiming the 0.8297 bounce high and EMA(20) puts price back inside the pre-Fed range beneath the 0.8313 week high
A break above the 0.8313 week high puts the 0.8320 round number next
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~10h): a soft core print challenges December-hike pricing and could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.8313 week high; post-Fed low at 0.8274 holding near the 38.2% retracement.
USD/CHF climbed from Friday's 0.8208 low to a week high of 0.8313 at Wednesday's London open, with the NY session driving the Monday and Tuesday legs. The Fed hold triggered a 33-pip whipsaw and a sell-the-fact USD slide. That move broke the rising trendline from Monday's low and printed a post-Fed low at 0.8274, near the 38.2% retracement of the week's impulse. An Asia session bounce has returned price to EMA(20) near 0.8290 with RSI(14) at 47, still under the 0.8300 round number and the lower-highs line.
Support: 0.8274, 0.8261, 0.8234
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.8313
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.8300 round number and the lower-highs line reopens the 0.8313 week high
Failure to hold the post-Fed low at 0.8274 confirms a lower-low and exposes the fib 50% at 0.8261, then the weekly open at 0.8234
Core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC Thursday could materially shift this read
Higher-low sequence broken post-Fed; consolidating near 38.2% fib.
The week's advance ran from the 0.8229 weekly low to a 0.8313 week high at Wednesday's London open. The rising trendline off Monday's lows gave way before the Fed. The Fed-hour spike to 0.8309 met rejection under that high, and price slid to a 0.8274 post-fed low as USD sold the fact on the expected hold. Price now sits below the ema20 near 0.8289 and EMA(50) near 0.8284, with RSI(14) at 38, its weakest of the week. It is holding around the 38.2% retracement of the week's rally, with the 50% fib at 0.8271 just beneath.
Support: 0.82741, 0.82709, 0.82609
Resistance: 0.8289, 0.8300, 0.8313
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.8274 post-fed low exposes the 50% fib at 0.8271, then the 61.8% fib near 0.8261 (Tuesday's Asia low)
Recovery above the ema20 near 0.8289 and the 0.8300 round number would undo the pullback read; the 0.8313 week high caps above
US Core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~12h) could materially shift this read
A sustained hold above 0.8274 through Asia keeps the post-Fed move a consolidation rather than a lower-low