Lower highs since 0.8297 spike, range floor broken.
The GDP/PCE spike to 0.8297 faded through NY hours. A late-NY range break below the 0.8257 range floor ran to a 0.8223 session low, and the early-Asia bounce to 0.8236 is still capped under the ema20 near 0.8240.
Support: 0.82228, 0.8220
Resistance: 0.8240, 0.8257
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.8257 range floor (near the 38.2% fib at 0.8251) negates the breakdown
Failure to hold the 0.8223 session low exposes the 0.8200 round number
ECI Q3 (Fri 12:30 UTC) could materially shift USD and this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.8297 post-data spike.
USD/CHF faded the 0.8297 spike after the 12:30 UTC US GDP/PCE release despite the firm USD backdrop. It broke the NY afternoon range floor at 0.8257 around 20:00 UTC and slid through 0.8250 to a 0.8223 session low. Early Asia session is bouncing off that low as RSI(14) recovers from sub-20 to ~33, with the lower-high chain from the post-data drop still intact below the 0.8247 late high.
Support: 0.8223, 0.8200
Resistance: 0.8247, 0.8257
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.8247 late high breaks the lower-high chain and reopens the 0.8257 range floor, near the 50% fib of the post-data drop
Failure to hold the 0.8223 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8200 round number
US ECI Q3 at 12:30 UTC Fri (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read
23:02 UTC
Downtrend, oversold but extending · RSI 23 · price 0.82261
Lower highs and lower lows since the failed NY spike at 0.8297; Asian range low broken.
The NY spike stalled at 0.8297, just under the Asian high, and the GDP-day whipsaw resolved lower with a break of the 0.8272 Asian low. Selling continued through NY, the late-hour drop and the rollover gap down carried price to a 0.8223 session low in early Asia. The pair slid despite a USD-supportive GDP beat, so the move reads as CHF-driven, and the 0.8250 support flagged in the CHF digest has given way. RSI(14) sits near 23, stretched for this timeframe but still trending, under a line of falling highs.
Support: 0.82228, 0.8200
Resistance: 0.82344, 0.82511, 0.8257
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.8223 session low leaves the 0.8200 round number as the next reference
M15 close back above the 0.8235 gap open and the falling highs line eases the downside extension
Rejection at the fib 38.2% of the NY sell-off (0.8251) or at the 0.8257 prior floor keeps the lower-high chain intact
Fri US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Daly/Musalem at 16:00/16:30 UTC could materially shift this read; risk-off headlines remain the CHF driver
22:46 UTC
Downtrend, extending into late NY · RSI 24 · price 0.82289
Lower highs and lower lows since the double top at 0.8297; prior shelf broken.
The post-US-data rally was rejected at 0.8297 for a second time, forming a double top, as the hot GDP print failed to lift the pair. A 20:00 UTC slide then cut through the 0.8257 prior shelf and the 0.8250 area, and lower highs now press price into a fresh session low at 0.8229. RSI(14) is near 24, soft but not extreme, and post-rollover liquidity is thin.
Support: 0.82289, 0.8200
Resistance: 0.82465
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8247 spike high breaks the lower highs sequence
Reclaim of the 0.8257 prior shelf would turn the 20:00 UTC break into a false break
Extension below the session low exposes the 0.8200 round number
US ECI at 12:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the 0.8297 rejection; NY afternoon floor at 0.8257 broken, fresh day low at 0.8231.
USD/CHF was rejected at 0.8297 twice, first at the Asian high and again on the spike after the US GDP and PCE data in NY. It has printed lower highs since, broke the 0.8257 broken floor late in NY and slid to a 0.8231 day low into the rollover, despite the USD-positive data. RSI(14) is near 24 in thin early-Asia liquidity, with the 0.8247 late high capping at the 23.6% fib.
Support: 0.82305
Resistance: 0.82465, 0.8257, 0.8270
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8231 day low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 0.8247 late high (23.6% fib) is the first sign of the slide stalling, with the 0.8257 broken floor above
Reclaim of the 0.8270 lower high (61.8% fib zone) negates the downtrend read
Fri ECI at 12:30 UTC, Chicago PMI and Daly/Musalem remarks could materially shift this read
22:16 UTC
Downtrend, RSI oversold · RSI 18 · price 0.82333
Lower highs since the post-data spike; late-NY range broken lower.
USD/CHF could not hold the 0.8297 spike that followed the US data dump in NY hours. Price then carved lower highs along a descending line and broke the 0.8257 range floor of the late-NY 0.8257–0.8265 range at 20:00 UTC. Thin early-Asia trade has extended to a fresh session low at 0.8233 with RSI(14) near 18, and the 0.8246 spike high capped the post-rollover bounce.
Support: 0.8233, 0.8230
Resistance: 0.8246, 0.8257, 0.8265
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 0.8257 range floor would neutralise the breakdown, with the 0.8265 range top above
Break of the 0.8230 round number below the session low extends the lower-low sequence
An M15 close above the descending line near the 0.8246 spike high breaks the lower-high chain; the 38.2% retrace of the post-data drop sits near 0.8258
US ECI Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read
22:02 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in thin early Asia · RSI 31 · price 0.82421
Lower highs from 0.8297; late-NY range break, basing 0.8234–0.8246.
USD/CHF faded the post-GDP spike to 0.8297 despite the beat; the soft deflator and spending miss in the digest tempered the USD lift, leaving a lower-highs sequence through NY. A 20:00 UTC drop broke the 0.8257 range floor and the 0.8250 psych level. Early Asia is holding between the 0.8234 rollover low and the 0.8246 wick high, with the swing low at 0.8239 the nearest floor.
Support: 0.82392, 0.82344
Resistance: 0.82465, 0.8250, 0.8257
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8257 range floor negates the late-NY range break
Rejection at the 0.8246 wick high or 0.8250 psych keeps the lower-highs trendline intact
Failure to hold the 0.8239 swing low and 0.8234 rollover low extends the lower-low chain toward 0.8200 flagged in the digest
US ECI Fri 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled USD driver after this Asia session
21:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since NY open · RSI 33 · price 0.82416
Afternoon range broken lower, thin post-rollover drift.
The spike to 0.8297 on the 12:30 UTC US GDP/PCE release faded despite the GDP beat. A late-NY flush at 20:00 UTC then broke the 0.8257–0.8270 afternoon range, from range floor to range top, and printed an NY low at 0.8239. Price is drifting in a thin Asia session just above the 0.8234 gap low left at rollover, with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 0.82392, 0.82344
Resistance: 0.82458, 0.8257, 0.82702
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8257 range floor, near the 38.2% fib of the post-data drop, would negate the range break
Failure to hold the 0.8239 ny low and 0.8234 gap low extends the lower-low sequence
Inability to clear the 0.8246 bounce high keeps the post-flush drift capped; the 0.8270 range top marks the upper edge of the broken range
US ECI Q3 at 12:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
21:32 UTC
Downtrend, extending after the late-NY break · RSI 28 · price 0.8240
Lower highs since the 0.8297 post-data spike; 0.8257 shelf broken.
USD/CHF dropped about 20 pips in a single 20:00 UTC bar, breaking the 0.8257 shelf low that held through late NY. That extended the lower-highs slide from the 0.8297 post-GDP spike, and CHF outpaced a firm USD. The 0.8234 session low printed on thin rollover liquidity; RSI(14) is near 28 and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 0.82344, 0.8200
Resistance: 0.8257, 0.82725
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8257 shelf low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8234 session low exposes the 0.8200 round number
Break of the lower-highs line, then a reclaim of the 0.8272 ny data low, would undo the selloff structure
US ECI Q3 (Fri 12:30 UTC) and Fed's Daly/Musalem later Friday could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the NY spike; late-NY range break lower.
The post-data spike to the 0.8297 session high failed during NY hours, despite the GDP beat keeping USD firm elsewhere. A late-NY break of the 0.8257–0.8270 range dropped the pair through the digest's 0.8250 support; early in the Asia session it sits at 0.8240, just above the 0.8234 rollover low, with RSI(14) near 29.
Support: 0.82344, 0.8200
Resistance: 0.82565, 0.82702, 0.82969
What it said to watch
A return above the 0.8257 range floor, which lines up with the 38.2% of the NY sell-off fib, would mark the late-NY move as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8234 rollover low leaves the 0.8200 round number as the next reference
The lower-highs line near 0.8261 has capped rallies; a break above it ends the intraday downtrend read
Range top at 0.8270 and the 0.8297 session high cap any recovery in the near term
US ECI Q3 Fri 12:30 UTC, then Daly and Musalem, could materially shift this read
21:03 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since NY data · RSI 31 · price 0.82425
Late-NY range break below 0.8257 floor, fresh session lows.
USD/CHF failed at the 0.8297 day high on the 12:30 UTC GDP/PCE spike, lost the 0.8272 Asian low and built lower highs into a 0.8257–0.8264 base. That range floor gave way at 20:00 UTC in a 20-pip bar to a 0.8239 session low, with CHF strength outweighing the firm USD data. RSI(14) sits near 31, soft but not yet oversold.
Support: 0.82392, 0.8220
Resistance: 0.8257, 0.82716, 0.82969
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8257 range floor would turn the late-NY break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8239 session low extends the lower-low chain, with the 0.8200 round number the next reference
Lower highs trendline near 0.8264 caps rebounds; a break above it and the 0.8272 Asian low challenges the downtrend read
Thin post-NY and Asia liquidity can exaggerate moves around the session low
US ECI Q3 Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) and Fed's Daly/Musalem later Friday could materially shift this read
20:47 UTC
Downtrend, extended into late NY · RSI 28 · price 0.82413
Lower highs from 0.8297 double top; late break below 0.8257 NY base.
USD/CHF capped twice at 0.8297, the Asian high and again after the 12:30 UTC US data, where the GDP beat was offset by misses in spending, income and the deflator. Price then lost the Asian low at 0.8272 and slid. A late-NY drop at 20:00 UTC broke the 0.8257 prior base and printed a day low at 0.8241, with RSI(14) near 28. The 0.8262 range top lines up with the 38.2% fib of the post-data drop overhead.
Support: 0.82409, 0.8240
Resistance: 0.82565, 0.82623, 0.82716
What it said to watch
Recovery back above the 0.8257 prior base would mark the late-NY break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8240 psych level extends the lower-low chain below the day low; the digest's 0.8250 support is already lost
Reclaim of the 0.8262 range top / 38.2% fib, then the 0.8272 asian low, would undo the double top read
US ECI Q3 (Fri 12:30 UTC) and Fed's Daly/Musalem (16:00/16:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the post-data rejection; afternoon base broken to the downside.
The post-GDP/PCE spike was rejected at the 0.8297 Asian high at 13:15 UTC. NY then broke the 0.8272 asian low and held a three-hour base between the 0.8257 base low and the 0.8264 base top. A 20-pip drop late in NY cleared that base and the 0.8250 area to a 0.8242 session low, with CHF firming despite the USD-positive data and RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 0.82424
Resistance: 0.8257, 0.82645, 0.82716
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8242 session low extends the lower-low sequence into the Asia session
A recovery back above the 0.8257 base low would turn the late-NY range break into a false break
The base top at 0.8264 lines up with the 38.2% fib of the 13:15 high-to-session-low drop; acceptance above it would break the lower-high chain
US Q3 ECI (Fri 12:30 UTC) and Fed's Daly/Musalem later Friday could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 0.8297 post-data spike; NY afternoon base at 0.8257 broken.
The swings around the US GDP/PCE release between 0.8273 and 0.8297 resolved lower. The asian low at 0.8272 gave way mid-NY, and each bounce since has formed a lower high along a descending trendline. The 20:00 UTC bar then broke the 0.8257 broken base to a 0.8243 session low, with RSI(14) near 27. The drop came despite the firm USD data tone and has taken out the 0.8250 area flagged in the CHF digest.
Support: 0.82432, 0.8240
Resistance: 0.8257, 0.82645, 0.82716
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.8257 broken base would mark the late-NY drop as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8243 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.8240 round number
Clearing the lower-high trendline and the 0.8264 lower high (fib 38.2 zone) negates the descending sequence
Thin after-hours and Asia session liquidity can exaggerate moves around the 0.8240 round number
US ECI Q3 at 12:30 UTC Fri, plus Daly and Musalem later in the day, could materially shift this read
20:02 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a tight base · RSI 47 · price 0.8263
Asian range broken lower in NY; post-break consolidation 0.8257–0.8270.
The two-way swing around the 12:30 UTC US GDP/PCE release ran from 0.8273 to the 0.8297 session high, then resolved lower through the Asian low near 0.8272. The selloff drew no follow-through despite the firm USD tone, and since the London-NY transition price has based in a 5-pip ATR band between the 0.8257 session low and the 0.8270 range top. RSI(14) sits neutral near 47 after NY close.
Support: 0.8257, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8270, 0.8297
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.8270 range top, back toward the broken Asian low, would undercut the breakdown read and puts the 0.8297 session high back in view
A break below the 0.8257 session low exposes the 0.8250 round number
A 61.8% retrace of the NY selloff fib sits near 0.8282; failure below the 38.2% (~0.8272) keeps the leg intact
US ECI Q3 (Fri 12:30 UTC) is the next scheduled catalyst that could materially shift this read
19:47 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 39 · price 0.82589
Lower highs into a flat 0.8257 base after NY range break.
USD/CHF whipsawed 0.8273–0.8297 around the US GDP/PCE data, then broke below the day's 0.8272 range floor during NY hours despite the firm USD backdrop. Price has slid to a 0.8257 NY low that held on repeated tests, while late-NY highs keep stepping lower to the 0.8265 lower high. RSI(14) sits near 39 and ATR(14) is about 4 pips.
Support: 0.8257, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8265, 0.8272
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8257 NY low extends the downtrend toward the 0.8250 round number
M15 close above the 0.8265 lower high breaks the falling trendline and puts the 0.8272 range floor back in play as resistance
US ECI (Fri 12:30 UTC) and Daly/Musalem remarks could materially shift this read
19:31 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating near lows · RSI 44 · price 0.82597
Lower highs since NY open, Asian range low broken, late-NY base 0.8257–0.8265.
USD/CHF faded the post-data spike to the 0.8297 day high during NY hours despite the US GDP beat. It broke the Asian low at 0.8272 and set a session low at 0.8257, now basing 0.8257–0.8265 under a lower-high trendline after London close with RSI(14) in the mid-40s.
Support: 0.8257, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.82645, 0.8272, 0.8297
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.82645 pivot high and the trendline breaks the lower-high chain; the 0.8272 Asian low then acts as resistance, near the 38.2% of the NY sell-off fib
Failure to hold the 0.8257 session low exposes the 0.8250 round number
US ECI at 12:30 UTC Friday, followed by Daly and Musalem, could materially shift this read
19:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, basing late NY · RSI 41 · price 0.82614
Asian range broken lower; tight 0.8257–0.8265 base below broken Asian low.
The pair spiked off the 12:30 UTC US data (GDP and claims beats) into a double top with the Asian high at 0.8297, then lost the Asian low at 0.8272 in NY and slid to a 0.8257 NY low even as USD stayed firm elsewhere. Late NY is compressing between 0.8257 and the 0.8265 range top. RSI(14) sits near 41 and price is below both EMAs.
Support: 0.8257, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.82645, 0.82716, 0.8297
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8257 NY low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.8250 round number
Recovery above the 0.8265 range top puts the broken asian low at 0.8272 (38.2% fib) back in play as resistance
Q3 ECI Fri 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled USD catalyst that could reset this read
19:02 UTC
Downtrend, basing late NY · RSI 43 · price 0.82624
Broke below Asian range, flat base above 0.8257.
After the 12:30 UTC US data, USD/CHF spiked to 0.8297, matching the day high, then reversed through the Asian low at 0.8272 despite the firm US prints. The NY session low at 0.8257 has held on five tests since 17:00 UTC. Price is compressing just above it, with the rebound capped near 0.8265 under a line of lower highs.
Support: 0.8257, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8272, 0.8297
What it said to watch
A 15-minute close below the 0.8257 session low exposes psych 0.8250, the digest's strong-support area.
A move back above the lower highs line near 0.8265 and the 0.8272 Asian low (38.2% fib) would put the pair back inside the Asian range.
Q3 ECI and Chicago PMI on Fri from 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
18:47 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 43 · price 0.82625
Range break lower after rejected post-data spike; tight late-NY base.
The spike to 0.8297 on the 12:30 UTC US data dump was rejected, and USD/CHF broke the 0.8272 range floor despite the firm USD tone, then slid to a 0.8257 session low. Late NY trade is basing between 0.8257 and 0.8270 under a line of lower highs, with RSI(14) near 43 and the post-data drop still barely retraced.
Support: 0.8257, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8272, 0.8297
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8272 range floor negates the break and returns price to the prior range
Failure to hold the 0.8257 session low, tested three times, exposes the 0.8250 round number
Close above the lower highs line near 0.8264 ends the late-NY compression
Recovery toward the 0.8297 spike high would erase the whole post-data drop
Friday's US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower, lower highs since NY data spike, late-NY consolidation.
The 12:30 UTC US data spike was rejected at the 0.8297 Asian high. The soft GDP price index and the misses on income and spending then fed a NY sell-off through the 0.8271 Asian low, down to a 0.8257 session low. Late NY trade is going sideways in a 0.8257–0.8270 shelf under a run of lower highs, with RSI(14) at 43 and price below EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 0.8257, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8271, 0.8297
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8271 asian low, which is also the lower highs line, returns price to the prior range
Failure to hold the 0.8257 session low exposes the 0.8250 round number
US ECI at 12:30 UTC Fri and Fed's Daly/Musalem could materially shift this read
18:16 UTC
Downtrend, grinding at lows · RSI 34 · price 0.82576
Asian range broken lower in NY; lower-high sequence intact.
The 0.8272–0.8297 Asian range held through London. It gave way in the NY session after the 12:30 UTC US data, where the soft GDP price index and income/spending details offset the GDP beat. The NY sell-off has since ground to a 0.8257 session low with lower highs capping each bounce, and RSI(14) sits near 34, not stretched.
Support: 0.8257, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.82647, 0.82718, 0.82971
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8265 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and the trendline
Recovery back inside the range floor at 0.8272 would mark the NY break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8257 session low exposes the 0.8250 round number
Range top at 0.8297 only comes into play on a full retrace of the NY sell-off
US Employment Cost Index (Fri 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since NY data spike; tight base above 0.8257 session low.
NY hours broke the Asian range low at 0.8272 after the US data mix, with a GDP beat offset by a soft price index and income. The pair printed a session low of 0.8257 and has since held a 0.8257–0.8270 shelf below the day high at 0.8297. RSI(14) sits near 35, soft but not stretched.
Support: 0.8257, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8272, 0.8297
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8272 asian low, near the 38.2% fib, undercuts the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 0.8257 session low exposes the 0.8250 round number
Recovery through 0.8297 day high would erase the NY decline
Post-NY trade into Asia likely thin; ECI Fri 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled driver
Asian range broken lower in NY; lower highs, compressing near lows.
The post-US-data spike to the 0.8297 range top faded, and the NY session broke the Asian low at 0.8271, printing lower highs into a 0.8257 session low despite the GDP beat. The soft GDP price index and easing yields are capping USD here. After London close, bars are compressing just above the lows, with RSI(14) near 34 and not oversold.
Support: 0.8257, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8271, 0.8297
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8271 asian low, also the 38.2% of the NY drop, negates the range-break read
Failure to hold the 0.8257 session low exposes the 0.8250 round number
Thin late-NY liquidity; next scheduled catalyst is US ECI Fri 12:30 UTC
Lower highs from 0.8297; range floor broken, tight late-NY consolidation.
After the GDP beat, USDCHF was rejected at the 0.8297 session high and broke the 0.8272 range floor during NY, a level that had held through Asia and London. The softer GDP price index and easing yields took the edge off the USD print. Lower highs carried price to a 0.8258 session low, and after London close it has compressed into a 0.8258–0.8267 band beneath the last lower high, RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 0.82579, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.82666, 0.82716, 0.82969
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.8272 range floor would neutralise the range break and the lower-high sequence
Holding under the 0.8267 lower high keeps the consolidation pinned to the session low
Loss of the 0.8258 session low exposes the 0.8250 round number, flagged as strong support
No scheduled data in the next 8h; ECI Fri 12:30 UTC and Daly/Musalem later Fri are the next catalysts
Range floor broken, lower highs, compressing above session low.
The 0.8272 floor held through Asia and London. It gave way in NY after the GDP/PCE whipsaw failed at the 0.8297 Asian high, despite the US GDP beat. The 16:00 UTC retest of the broken floor near 0.8270 was rejected, and price is now compressing on a chain of lower highs just above the 0.8258 session low after London close, with RSI(14) near 32.
Support: 0.8258, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8270, 0.8297
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.8270 broken floor, near the 38.2% of the post-data drop, undercuts the range-break read
Break of the 0.8258 session low exposes the 0.8250 round number
A move through the lower highs trendline shifts the read back toward the range
US ECI (Fri 12:30 UTC) plus Daly/Musalem later Friday could materially shift this read
17:03 UTC
Downtrend, basing late NY · RSI 29 · price 0.82615
Lower highs since 14:00 UTC; Asian range broken lower, tight 0.8260–0.8270 base.
Two-way chop followed the 12:30 UTC GDP/PCE batch. NY then broke below the 0.8272 Asian low and printed a 0.8260 session low, even with the dollar firm elsewhere. Late NY is basing in a tight 0.8260–0.8270 band, with RSI(14) near 29 and price capped by the descending trendline from the 0.8290 lower high.
Support: 0.8260, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8272, 0.82896
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.8272 Asian low returns price to the Asian range and weakens the break
Failure to hold the 0.8260 session low exposes 0.8250 psych, flagged as strong support in the CHF digest
A break of the descending trendline from the 0.8290 lower high ends the NY lower-high sequence
Fri 12:30 UTC ECI (f/c 0.8%) and Daly/Musalem later Friday could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower in NY; tight base above 0.8260 under descending highs.
The 12:30 UTC US data spike was rejected at the 0.8297 Asian high. Mixed prints followed, with a GDP price index miss and soft spending and income, and price broke below the 0.8272 Asian low into a 0.8260 session low. Late in NY, after London close, price is coiling between 0.8260 and 0.8270 under a descending highs line, with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 0.8260, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8272, 0.8297
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.8272 (Asian low, near the 38.2% retrace of the NY sell-off) returns price to the prior range
Failure to hold the 0.8260 session low exposes the 0.8250 round number
A close above the descending highs line breaks the sequence of lower highs
Friday's ECI at 12:30 UTC and Daly/Musalem remarks could materially shift this read
16:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since 13:15 UTC · RSI 36 · price 0.82642
Range break below 0.8272 floor, retest capped.
USD/CHF whipsawed on the 12:30 UTC US data (GDP beat, in-line core PCE) and then broke the 0.8272 floor in NY hours, despite the firm USD tone. That floor had held since the Asian session. Price has since printed a 0.8260 session low, and rebounds have stalled at the broken floor under a lower-highs line, with RSI(14) at 36.
Support: 0.8260, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8271, 0.8297
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.8271 broken floor negates the range break
Failure to hold the 0.8260 session low exposes the 0.8250 round number
Reclaim of the lower highs line and the 50% fib near 0.8279 reopens the 0.8297 session high
Post-London-close liquidity is thin; Friday's ECI at 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled driver
Range break lower, lower highs since post-data spike.
The US data spike to 0.8297 at the Asian high reversed. The mixed print (GDP beat, soft deflator, weak income/spending) left a lower high at 0.8290, and price then broke the 0.8272 floor that had held four times since Asia. The NY retest stalled at 0.8270, now a broken floor, and price is pressing the 0.8260 session low with RSI(14) at 32, not yet oversold.
Support: 0.8260, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8270, 0.8290, 0.8297
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8270 broken floor negates the range break and reopens the old 0.8272–0.8297 range
Price holding under the descending trendline (~0.8267) keeps the lower-high chain from 0.8290 intact
Retrace into the 38.2% of the post-data drop near 0.8275 would test whether the break holds
Acceptance below the 0.8260 session low exposes the 0.8250 psych level
Fri ECI 12:30 UTC and Daly/Musalem from 16:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range low broken in NY; lower highs since data spike.
The 12:30 UTC US data spike (GDP beat, in-line core PCE) was rejected at the 0.8297 Asian high. Price then broke the 0.8272 Asian low during NY hours to a session low at 0.8261. The post-data drop has retraced only modestly, with the bounce capped under 0.8272 and the lower-highs line. RSI(14) is near 41.
Support: 0.82609, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8272, 0.8297
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8272 Asian low would turn the range break into a false break
Loss of the 0.8261 session low exposes 0.8250 key support
Close above the lower-highs line would neutralise the post-data drop sequence
Liquidity thins after London close; Fri ECI 12:30 UTC and Fed's Daly/Musalem are the next scheduled USD risk
Asian range floor broken in NY, lower highs since 13:15 UTC.
USDCHF held the 0.8272–0.8297 Asian range through London and the 12:30 UTC GDP/PCE data, then met rejection at the asian high (0.8297) and broke the range floor in NY hours. CHF outperformed despite the firm USD tone. Lower highs at 0.8297 and 0.8290 framed the slide to a 0.8261 session low, with RSI(14) near 35 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.82609, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.82725, 0.82896, 0.82969
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8272 range floor (near the 38.2% fib) would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.8261 session low exposes the 0.8250 round number
A move above the 0.8290 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Friday's US ECI (12:30 UTC) and Daly (16:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
15:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since 13:15 UTC · RSI 33 · price 0.82625
Range break lower from the 0.8272–0.8297 band, new day low.
The 0.8272 range floor held through Asia, London and the 12:30 UTC GDP/PCE spike. NY then broke it from a lower-high sequence off the 0.8297 session high and printed a day low at 0.8261, even as USD stayed firm elsewhere on the GDP beat. RSI(14) near 33 is soft but not oversold, and price is pressing below UOB's 0.8265 range floor with the 0.8250 round number next.
Support: 0.8261, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8272, 0.8279, 0.8297
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8272 range floor would mark the break as a false break
Bounce capped at the 0.8279 fib 50% keeps the lower-high trendline structure intact
Failure to hold the 0.8261 day low exposes the 0.8250 round number, flagged as strong support
Reclaim of the 0.8297 session high negates the intraday downtrend read
London close thins liquidity. Next scheduled risk is Friday's ECI at 12:30 UTC
Range break lower: Asian low lost, NY printing lower highs.
The 12:30 UTC US GDP/PCE batch whipsawed USD/CHF up to the 0.8297 session high, matching the Asian high, before NY hours turned it lower. A string of lower highs then broke the 0.8272 Asian low and printed a new session low at 0.8262, with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 0.8262, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8272, 0.8297
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8272 Asian low marks the break as a false break and returns price to the 0.8272–0.8297 range
Hold below the 0.8262 session low exposes the 0.8250 psych level, also flagged as strong support
50–61.8% of the NY drop fib (0.8280–0.8284) is the zone where the lower-highs sequence is tested
Fri ECI 12:30 UTC and Daly/Musalem Fedspeak can reprice USD; risk-off headlines tend to lift CHF
Lower highs from 0.8297 in NY, range floor at 0.8272 broken.
The 12:30 UTC GDP/claims beat lifted USD/CHF to 0.8297 early in the NY session, matching the Asian high to form a double cap. The pair then faded on a chain of lower highs. It slipped through the 0.8272 range floor that had held since Asia, printing a 0.8267 session low, with RSI(14) near 39 and not stretched.
Support: 0.8267, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8272, 0.8297
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8272 range floor would mark the break as false and restore the range read
Acceptance below the 0.8267 session low exposes 0.8250 strong supp
Close above the lower-highs trendline near 0.8290 voids the NY fade
Fed's Daly and Musalem plus ECI on Friday are the next USD catalysts for this read
14:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since US data · RSI 40 · price 0.82712
Lower highs from 0.8297, pressing below the Asian range low.
The 12:30 UTC US data whipsaw (GDP beat, core PCE in line) spiked the pair to the 0.8297 data high, where it was rejected. A chain of lower highs since then has carried price through the 0.8272 Asian low into the first hours of the NY session, printing a new day low at 0.8270 with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 0.8270
Resistance: 0.82716, 0.82858, 0.8297
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.8272 asian low turns the break into a false break
A move through the 0.8286 lower high and the lower highs line voids the intraday downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.8270 day low leaves no nearby structure inside this window
No scheduled USD/CHF data in the next 8h; the next catalyst is ECI on Fri at 12:30 UTC
0.8272–0.8297 range since post-FOMC drop, lower highs in NY.
USDCHF has held a 0.8272–0.8297 range since the post-FOMC drop. The 13:15 UTC spike was rejected at the asian high, and early NY retested the asian low twice (0.82729, 0.82718) with lower highs capped near the 0.8290 pivot. Mixed-to-firm US data (GDP beat, in-line core PCE) produced two-way swings but no range break.
Support: 0.82716
Resistance: 0.8290, 0.8297
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8272 asian low breaks the post-FOMC range and confirms a lower-low
Reclaim of the 0.8290 pivot breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.8297 asian high back in play
ECB/Lagarde headlines this session could swing USD broadly and shift this read
24h range 0.8272–0.8297 since the post-FOMC drop; NY swept both ends.
USDCHF has rotated inside a 0.8272–0.8297 range since the post-FOMC drop, with the London session capped between the 0.8276 london low and the 0.8290 london high. Around the firm US GDP and claims prints and the ECB decision, NY hours pushed to the range high at 0.8297, then flushed to the range low near 0.8273. Both moves were rejected, leaving price mid-range at 0.8284 with RSI(14) near 51 and the EMAs flat.
Support: 0.8276, 0.8272
Resistance: 0.8290, 0.8297
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.8297 range high breaks the range to the upside. The 0.8290 london high is the first cap.
Failure to hold the 0.8276 london low exposes the 0.8272 range low. A close below it ends the range read.
Lagarde and ECB headlines during NY hours could extend the two-sided swings; ATR is running at about 7 pips.
14:02 UTC
Sideways, no directional momentum · RSI 47 · price 0.82824
24h range 0.8272–0.8297, both edges tagged on US data.
USDCHF has held a 0.8272–0.8297 range since the Asian session. London stayed inside, between the 0.8276 london low and the 0.8290 london high. Early NY volatility after the 12:30 UTC US data (GDP beat, in-line core PCE) tagged the 0.8297 range top and then the 0.8272 range floor without a close outside either edge, and price is back mid-range near 0.8282 with RSI(14) neutral at 47.
Support: 0.8276, 0.8272
Resistance: 0.8290, 0.8297
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8297 range top breaks the 24h range to the upside
Failure to hold the 0.8272 range floor prints a fresh 24h low
Acceptance outside the 0.8276 london low / 0.8290 london high band shifts the read away from mid-range chop
ECB decision and Lagarde today, then Fri ECI at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
13:47 UTC
Sideways, mid-range after a data whipsaw · RSI 51 · price 0.82857
24-pip day range 0.8272–0.8297 held from Asia through the NY open.
The US GDP/PCE/claims release first dipped price to the 0.8272 range floor, then the NY open spiked to the 0.8297 range top, matching the Asian high, before a full rejection back to 0.8273. Price now sits mid-range just under the 0.8290 london high, with flat EMAs and RSI(14) at 51; the mixed-to-firm US data has not resolved the range.
Support: 0.8276, 0.8272
Resistance: 0.8290, 0.8297, 0.8309
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8297 range top opens a retest of the 0.8309 fomc high from Wednesday's decision
Failure at the 0.8276 swing low, then a close below the 0.8272 range floor, would break the day's base
Repeated wicks through 0.8290 london high without closes keep the range read intact
ECB/Lagarde headlines today could jolt USD crosses and test either range edge
Range 0.8272–0.8297 holding since Asia; post-data swing faded mid-range.
The 12:30 UTC US data hit (GDP beat, lower claims) dipped to 0.8273 just above the Asian low, then reversed to 0.8297. The Asian high capped price again there. Price is back mid-range near 0.8285 early in the NY session, with RSI(14) flat at 50 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 0.8276, 0.8272
Resistance: 0.8290, 0.8297
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8297 asian high breaks the 24h range
Loss of 0.8276 london low exposes the 0.8272 asian low and range floor
Holding back under the 0.8290 london high keeps the range read intact
ECB decision and Lagarde today could move USD and shift this read
Fib 50% near 0.8285 of the post-data spike is the current pivot
13:16 UTC
Sideways, post-FOMC range · RSI 54 · price 0.82885
0.8272–0.8297 range since Asia; PCE dip rejected above the Asian low, price testing the London high.
USDCHF is holding the 0.8272–0.8297 post-FOMC range into the first hour of NY. The 12:30 GMT PCE/GDP release drove a PCE dip to 0.8273 that rejected just above the Asian low and was fully reversed. Price is now pressing the 0.8290 London high, with RSI(14) neutral near 54 and ATR(14) about 5.5 pips.
Support: 0.82764, 0.82716
Resistance: 0.82898, 0.82971, 0.83092
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8297 Asian high breaks the range and opens the 0.8309 FOMC high
Slip back below the 0.8276 London low reopens the 0.8272 Asian low; a break there invalidates the range read
PCE/GDP actuals are not yet in the feed; a soft core PCE (≤0.2% MoM) could undo the post-PCE dip recovery
ECB decision and press conference today could jolt USD crosses during NY hours
13:02 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since Asia · RSI 49 · price 0.82857
0.8272–0.8297 range, failed downside break at the PCE release.
The 12:30 GMT US PCE/GDP release spiked USD/CHF through the London low at 0.8276 to 0.8273, holding above the Asian low at 0.8272, and the next bar fully retraced it. Early NY trade sits mid-range near 0.8286, capped by a lower-highs line from 0.8295 and the London high at 0.8290. RSI is neutral near 49.
Support: 0.8276, 0.8272
Resistance: 0.8290, 0.8297
What it said to watch
M15 close above the London high at 0.8290 and the lower-highs line opens the Asian high at 0.8297
Failure to hold the Asian low at 0.8272 turns the PCE spike into a range break lower
PCE/GDP actuals still pending in feed; their digestion through NY hours could reset the range
0.8272–0.8297 range since Asia, lower highs pressing the floor.
Range-bound between the 0.8272 Asian low and 0.8297 Asian high since the post-FOMC slide from 0.8309. Lower highs through London (0.8290 london high, then 0.8288) form a lower-highs trendline pressing price onto the floor. The 12:30 GMT PCE/GDP release bar spiked to 0.8273 and recovered to the 0.8276 london low area, leaving RSI(14) near 41 and price below EMA20/50.
Support: 0.8276, 0.8272
Resistance: 0.8290, 0.8297
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8272 Asian low breaks the range floor and exposes the 0.8250 support cited in the digest
Close above the lower-highs trendline and 0.8290 london high reopens the 0.8297 asian high
Failure to hold the 0.8276 london low after the data spike puts the range floor back under test
PCE/GDP actuals are not yet in the feed; the full NY-session reaction to the 12:30 GMT data could materially shift this read
12:32 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 50 · price 0.82822
Tight London range inside the Asian range.
USDCHF has spent London boxed in 0.8276–0.8290, inside the Asian range of 0.8272–0.8297. Demand has absorbed four tests of the london low, and the london high has capped two pushes. Price sits near the 50% of the Asian rebound fib, with RSI(14) flat at 50 and ATR around 5.5 pips, as the US core PCE/GDP release lands on the current bar. The fed high at 0.8309 from yesterday's hold spike is the outer cap.
Support: 0.8276, 0.82716
Resistance: 0.82898, 0.82971, 0.83092
What it said to watch
US core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC (current bar) could break the London range either way
M15 close below the london low at 0.8276 exposes the asian low at 0.8272, near the 0.8270 support cited in the market context
M15 close above the london high at 0.8290 reopens the asian high at 0.8297, then the fed high at 0.8309
Failure to hold the 50% of the Asian rebound fib leaves the London range floor as the next test
12:03 UTC
Sideways, compressing after post-Fed drop · RSI 55 · price 0.82849
London range inside Asian range; lower highs meeting higher lows.
After the post-Fed whipsaw off the 0.8309 fed high, London has stayed inside the Asian range. The london low near 0.8276 held four times and the london high at 0.8290 capped twice, so price is compressing between lower highs and higher lows into the US data. RSI(14) near 55, ATR(14) about 5 pips.
Support: 0.8276, 0.8272
Resistance: 0.8290, 0.8297, 0.8309
What it said to watch
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC are the likely catalyst for a break of the 0.8276–0.8290 London range
An M15 close below the asian low at 0.8272 sets a fresh window low and breaks the higher-lows line
An M15 close above the asian high at 0.8297 breaks the lower-highs line and puts the fed high at 0.8309 back in play
11:46 UTC
Sideways, mild downward drift from Asian high · RSI 47 · price 0.82784
London range 0.8276–0.8290 inside Asian range; lower highs since 06:00 UTC.
London has held a tight 0.8276–0.8290 range inside the Asian range. Lower highs off the 0.8295 peak at 06:00 UTC have pressed price back onto the London low, where demand stepped in at 08:00, 09:00 and 11:00 UTC. RSI(14) is neutral near 47, ATR is a thin ~5 pips, and the market is holding still ahead of the US GDP/PCE data with the Fed's hawkish hold already priced.
Support: 0.82765, 0.82716
Resistance: 0.82898, 0.8297
What it said to watch
US GDP/Core PCE at 12:30 UTC (~45 min) could break the London range in either direction
M15 close below the 0.8276 london low exposes the 0.8272 asian low and the post-Fed lows
Close above the 0.8290 london high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 0.8297 asian high
Failure to hold the 0.8272 asian low would mark a fresh lower low for the 24h window
11:32 UTC
Sideways, compressing below Asian high · RSI 47 · price 0.82815
Lower highs into a flat 0.8276 base.
London has held a tight 0.8276–0.8290 range under the 0.8297 Asian high. Lower highs from 0.8295 are pressing into a flat London low base at 0.8276, with RSI(14) near 47 and ATR around 5 pips ahead of the 12:30 UTC US data. The post-Fed whipsaw off the 0.8309 Fed spike has been fully absorbed.
Support: 0.82765, 0.82716
Resistance: 0.82898, 0.8297, 0.83092
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8276 london low breaks the flat base and exposes the 0.8272 asian low
Close above the lower-highs line and the 0.8290 london high reopens the 0.8297 asian high
US GDP/Core PCE at 12:30 UTC (~60 min) could resolve the compression; 0.8309 fed spike high is the next reference on a hot print
11:17 UTC
Sideways-to-heavy, lower highs since the Asian open · RSI 45 · price 0.8279
Asian range holding; lower highs compressing onto flat lows near 0.8276.
Since the post-Fed spike to the 0.8309 FOMC high, USD/CHF has stayed inside the 0.8272–0.8297 Asian range. The London session has printed lower highs, with rejection at the 0.8290 London high, pressing price back onto the 0.8276 London low. RSI(14) is neutral at 45 and ATR is about 5.7 pips going into US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC.
Support: 0.8276, 0.8272
Resistance: 0.8290, 0.8297, 0.8309
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.8276 London low exposes the 0.8272 Asian low; a break there ends the Asian range read
A close above the lower-highs line and the 0.8290 London high reopens the 0.8297 Asian high
Only a reclaim of the 0.8309 FOMC high would undo the post-Fed slide
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
11:02 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 46 · price 0.82831
London range 0.8276–0.8290 nested inside the Asian range; lower highs and higher lows compressing.
After the post-Fed whipsaw, USDCHF has held inside the Asian range (0.8272–0.8297). London has carved a tighter 0.8276–0.8290 band with lower highs off 0.8295 and higher lows off the Asian low, and price is hugging the EMAs with RSI(14) near 46 ahead of US core PCE and GDP.
Support: 0.82764, 0.82716
Resistance: 0.82898, 0.8297
What it said to watch
US core PCE / Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC can resolve the compression in either direction
M15 close above the london high at 0.8290 breaks the lower-highs line and puts the asian high at 0.8297 in focus
Failure to hold the london low at 0.8276 exposes the asian low at 0.8272, the window low
Contracting ATR near 5.6 pips signals a squeeze into the data
Lower highs and rising lows inside the Asian range.
The 18:30 UTC Fed bar ran 0.8309–0.8277 (fed spike hi to low) and price has rotated inside 0.8272–0.8297 since. London is still inside the Asian range: three tests of the 0.8276 London low held, and the bounce stalled at the 0.8290 London high. Lower highs from the 0.8295 pre-London peak and rising lows off the 0.8272 Asian low are compressing price near both EMAs ahead of US core PCE and GDP.
Support: 0.82764, 0.82716
Resistance: 0.82898, 0.82971, 0.83092
What it said to watch
Core PCE, Q3 GDP and claims at 12:30 UTC (~1h45m) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.8276 london low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 0.8272 asian low
M15 close above the 0.8290 london high breaks the lower highs and opens 0.8297 asian high, then the 0.8309 fed spike hi
10:31 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 51 · price 0.82853
Inside Asian range, higher low above Asian low.
USDCHF is trading mid-Asian range near 0.8285, after the post-Fed drop from the 0.8309 fed high, as the dollar steadies ahead of US data. London has held a 0.8276 london low three times above the 0.8272 asian low, extending a run of higher lows, while rebounds stall at the 0.8290 london high. RSI(14) near 51 and ATR around 6 pips point to compression into US core PCE/GDP.
Support: 0.8276, 0.8272
Resistance: 0.8290, 0.8296, 0.8309
What it said to watch
US core PCE, GDP and claims at 12:30 UTC (~2h) could break the Asian range either way
M15 close above the 0.8290 london high puts the 0.8296 asian high and 0.8309 fed high back in view
Failure to hold the 0.8276 london low exposes the 0.8272 asian low and breaks the higher-lows line
Move below 0.8272 opens a fresh session low beneath the post-Fed range
10:17 UTC
Sideways, post-Fed range · RSI 50 · price 0.82854
Range 0.8272–0.8297 below Fed high, rising lows.
Since the Fed high at 0.8309 the pair has been confined between the asian low at 0.8272 and the asian high at 0.8297, with rising lows from that Asia trough. Mid-London, price has defended the london low near 0.8276 three times and bounced to 0.8290. It now sits mid-range on a flat EMA20 with RSI near 50 ahead of US data.
Support: 0.82765, 0.82716
Resistance: 0.82898, 0.8297, 0.83092
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8276 london low exposes the 0.8272 asian low and breaks the rising lows
Close above the 0.8290 london high, then the 0.8297 asian high, breaks the post-Fed range toward the 0.8309 fed high
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read; a soft core print is the scenario the digest links to 0.8265
Overnight range 0.8272–0.8297; London higher low testing session high.
The post-FOMC spike to 0.8309 reversed, and USDCHF has since rotated inside a 0.8272–0.8297 band. London printed a higher low at 0.8276, above the 0.8272 Asian low, and price is now pressing the session high near 0.8290, around a 68% retrace of the drop from the 0.8295 swing high. RSI(14) sits near 55 and ATR is about 6 pips, with the market waiting on US core PCE/GDP.
Support: 0.82764, 0.82716
Resistance: 0.82898, 0.82951, 0.8297
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.8295 swing high and the 0.8297 Asian high breaks the overnight range to the upside
Rejection at the 0.8290 session high keeps the range intact; a loss of the 0.8276 London low voids the higher-low read
A break of the 0.8272 Asian low exposes a fresh low in the range
US core PCE, GDP and claims at 12:30 UTC (~2.5h) could materially shift this read
09:47 UTC
Sideways, compressing after post-FOMC drop · RSI 46 · price 0.82847
London trading inside the Asian range: lower highs above, higher low below.
After the post-FOMC drop off 0.8309, USDCHF has held a 0.8272–0.8297 Asian range. London has stayed inside it, with three holds at the 0.8276 london low and a cap at the 0.8290 london high. Lower highs and a higher low are compressing price around flat EMAs. RSI(14) sits near 46 and ATR(14) is about 6 pips, with no directional setup ahead of US PCE/GDP.
Support: 0.8276, 0.8272
Resistance: 0.8290, 0.8297
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8276 london low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 0.8272 asian low
M15 close above the 0.8290 london high clears the lower-highs line and brings the 0.8297 asian high back into view
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read; an in-line print fits the cited 0.8265–0.8305 range
London lower highs, base at 0.8276 held, trendline broken.
USD/CHF is trading inside the 0.8272–0.8297 Asian range after fading from the 0.8309 fed high. London printed lower highs, but the 0.8276 london low held three times near the 78.6% of the asia swing. The 09:15 bar then broke the London trendline and tagged the 0.8290 session high, with RSI(14) flat near 48 and an ATR of about 6 pips ahead of US PCE/GDP.
Support: 0.82764, 0.82716, 0.8265
Resistance: 0.82898, 0.82971, 0.83092
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.8290 session high puts the 0.8297 asian high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.8276 london low exposes the 0.8272 asian low and then the 0.8265 range low
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read; a hot print brings the 0.8309 fed high into view
A move back below the broken London trendline marks the 09:15 break as a false break
Lower highs pressing a flat 0.8276 floor inside the Asian range.
The slide from the 0.8309 Fed high has settled into a 0.8272–0.8297 band, bounded by the Asian low and Asian high. London has stayed inside it, with lower highs from 0.8295 capping at the 0.8288 London high and demand holding a flat floor near the 0.8276 London low three times. RSI(14) sits near 40 and ATR is about 6 pips, with price just under both EMAs ahead of US core PCE and GDP.
Support: 0.8276, 0.8272
Resistance: 0.8288, 0.8297, 0.8309
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8276 london low breaks the flat floor and exposes the 0.8272 asian low
Close above the lower-highs line and the 0.8288 london high reopens the 0.8297 asian high
Recovery through 0.8297 would put the 0.8309 fed high back in view
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 GMT (~3h) could materially shift this read
Inside 0.8272–0.8297 Asian range, lower highs since 06:00 UTC.
The Fed-presser spike to 0.8309 reversed. Price has since held inside the 0.8272–0.8297 Asian range. Early London faded the 0.8295 area into a lower-high sequence, and price now sits at the 61.8% retrace near 0.8280, just above the 0.8277 London low. RSI(14) is around 41.
Support: 0.82769, 0.82716
Resistance: 0.82882, 0.82971, 0.83092
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8272 Asian low breaks the range and exposes the 0.8250 support flagged in the CHF digest
M15 close above the 0.8288 lower high and the descending lower-high line negates the early-London fade
US core PCE/GDP at 12:30 GMT (~3.5h) could materially shift this read; the 0.8309 fed spike high is the upside reference
08:47 UTC
Sideways, mild downside drift through London · RSI 42 · price 0.82824
Inside Asian range, London lower highs above 0.8277 floor.
The Fed spike high at 0.8309 fully reversed. Asia then set a 0.8272–0.8297 range (asian low / asian high), and London is trading inside it. London highs are stepping lower from 0.8295 under the 0.8288 london high, while the 0.8277 london low has held twice. RSI(14) sits near 42, and price is pinned just under EMA20/50 with ATR around 5 pips as USD firmness meets CHF funding softness.
Support: 0.8277, 0.8272
Resistance: 0.8288, 0.8297, 0.8309
What it said to watch
US core PCE / Q3 GDP at 12:30 GMT (~4h, around NY open) could materially shift this read
Close above the 0.8288 london high breaks the London lower-highs sequence and reopens the 0.8297 asian high
Failure to hold the 0.8277 london low exposes the 0.8272 asian low; a break there would be a downside range break
Fed spike hi at 0.8309 caps the upside if the asian high gives way
08:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since 06:00 UTC · RSI 42 · price 0.82793
Inside Asian range, London printing lower highs toward range floor.
After the Fed spike high at 0.8309 was rejected and the pair reversed into the Asian range, London has faded the 0.8295 Asian high with a chain of lower highs, the latest at 0.8285. Price is pressing the 0.8277 London low and sits below both EMAs; it has retraced about two-thirds of the overnight Asia rally fib.
Support: 0.8277, 0.82716
Resistance: 0.82846, 0.82951, 0.83092
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8277 London low exposes the 0.8272 Asian low, the range floor
M15 close above the 0.8285 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and neutralises the fade
US GDP and core PCE at 12:30 GMT (~4h) could materially shift this read and the 0.8309 Fed spike high
08:17 UTC
Sideways, mild lower highs since 06:00 UTC · RSI 46 · price 0.82829
Inside Asian range 0.8272–0.8297, 61.8% retrace of the Asia rally holding.
The post-Fed spike to the 0.8309 FOMC high reversed as Warsh gave no December steer, and price has since held inside the 0.8272–0.8297 Asian range. The early-Europe session high at 0.8295 was rejected and a lower high formed at 0.8288. The London open dipped to 0.8277, a 61.8% retracement of the Asia rally, and found buyers, leaving price mid-range with RSI(14) near 46.
Support: 0.82771, 0.82716
Resistance: 0.82882, 0.82951, 0.83092
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8272 asian low breaks the range to the downside
M15 close above the 0.8288 lower high negates the lower-highs read and reopens the 0.8295 session high
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 GMT (~4h) could materially shift this read
A move above the 0.8309 fomc high would clear the post-Fed reversal
08:02 UTC
Sideways after the Fed spike, lower highs · RSI 44 · price 0.82797
Asian range 0.8272–0.8297 intact; London sold the 0.8295 high back to its lows.
The Fed-presser spike to 0.8309 reversed fast, and highs have stepped lower since: 0.8297 at the Asia open, then the 0.8295 session high. London opened with a rejection there and drifted back to the 0.8280 london low, the 61.8% of the Asian rally, with the london high at 0.8288 now capping. RSI(14) sits near 44 and ATR runs about 5 pips; the market is still inside the Asian range.
Support: 0.8280, 0.8272
Resistance: 0.8288, 0.8295, 0.8309
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8280 london low exposes the 0.8272 asian low and range break risk
Recovery above 0.8288 london high and the 0.8295 session high breaks the lower-highs sequence
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 GMT (~4.5h) could materially shift this read; 0.8309 fed high is the upside marker
07:47 UTC
Intraday range, higher low in place · RSI 54 · price 0.82869
Inside Asian range 0.8272–0.8297; HL chain since the 02:00 UTC low.
The hawkish Fed hold whipsawed the pair to the 0.8309 fed high before an 18:30 UTC drop, and Asia then set a 0.8272–0.8297 range. Early London retested 0.8280, a 61.8% fib retrace of the 0.8272–0.8295 leg, and it held as a higher low above the rising trendline. Price is back at 0.8287, mid-range, with RSI neutral near 54 and price sitting just above both EMAs.
Support: 0.82803, 0.82716
Resistance: 0.82971, 0.83092
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.8280 higher low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 0.8272 asian low
A close above the 0.8297 asian high opens the path toward the 0.8309 fed high
US core PCE, GDP and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read
Inside 25-pip Asian range, pullback testing 61.8% fib.
The hawkish-leaning Fed hold spiked USDCHF to a fed high of 0.8309, then reversed it, and Asia set its low at 0.82716. The rebound faced rejection at the 0.8295 swing high and has retraced to the 61.8% fib near 0.8280 into London open. Price sits just under both EMAs with RSI flat at 50.
Support: 0.8280, 0.82716
Resistance: 0.82951, 0.83092
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8280 61.8% fib exposes the 0.82716 Asian low
Close above the 0.8295 swing high puts the 0.8309 fed high back in play
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read
07:17 UTC
Sideways, Asian rebound fading · RSI 48 · price 0.82834
Post-Fed range 0.8272–0.8297, lower high at 0.8295.
The Asian session grind from the 0.8272 asian low stalled at a 0.8295 lower high, below the 0.8297 asian high, after USD recovered from the post-Fed (Warsh) dip. Into London open price has slipped under both EMAs to the 50% retracement of that rebound near 0.8283. The 61.8% fib at 0.8281 sits just below, RSI(14) is neutral at 48 and ATR is about 4 pips.
Support: 0.82808, 0.82755, 0.82716
Resistance: 0.82951, 0.8297, 0.83092
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 0.8281 exposes the 0.8276 post-fed low and the 0.8272 asian low
M15 close above the 0.8295 lower high and 0.8297 asian high reopens the 0.8309 fed spike high
US core PCE, GDP and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 0.8272–0.8297; higher-low chain broken at London open.
USDCHF is back inside the 0.8272–0.8297 Asian range after the Warsh presser spike to the 0.8309 presser high reversed. Asia built higher lows off the asian low but printed a lower high at 0.8295, short of the asian high. Into London open the rising Asia trendline gave way and price is testing the pullback low near 0.8285, at the 38.2% retrace, with RSI(14) neutral at 53 and price just under EMA20.
Support: 0.8285, 0.82806, 0.82716
Resistance: 0.82951, 0.82971, 0.83092
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8285 pullback low exposes the 61.8% fib at 0.8281 and the asian low at 0.8272
A close above the 0.8295 lower high and the 0.8297 asian high breaks the Asian range and puts the 0.8309 presser high back in view
US core PCE, Q3 GDP and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (15:30 broker) could materially shift this read
06:47 UTC
Intraday recovery from 0.8272, stalling below the Asian high · RSI 60 · price 0.82877
Higher-low chain since 02:00 UTC; rising line broken, price inside the Asian range 0.8272–0.8297.
Warsh's press conference knocked USD/CHF from the 0.8309 fed spike high to the 0.8270s. Asia then put in a 0.8272 low and a steady higher-low grind to a 0.8295 swing high, which stalled just under the 0.8297 Asian high. The 06:30 UTC bar broke the rising line, but price is holding the 38.2 fib near 0.8285 heading into London.
Support: 0.8285, 0.82806, 0.82716
Resistance: 0.82951, 0.82971, 0.83092
What it said to watch
Loss of the 61.8 fib at 0.8281 exposes the 0.8272 Asian low and voids the higher-low chain
M15 close above the 0.8297 Asian high reopens the 0.8309 fed spike high
US core PCE, GDP and claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:32 UTC
Intraday recovery from Asian low, stalling below Asian high · RSI 57 · price 0.82879
Higher-low chain since 02:00 UTC inside 0.8272–0.8297 Asian range.
The post-Fed press-conference whipsaw from the 0.8309 fed spike high to 0.8277 left the pair heavy overnight. Asia printed a range of 0.8272–0.8297, and a higher-low grind off the asian low stalled at 0.8295 with a rejection. Price is easing back into the fib 50% zone ahead of London open, with RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 0.82834, 0.82716
Resistance: 0.82971, 0.8300, 0.83092
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8297 asian high breaks the Asian range and exposes the 0.8300 round number, then the 0.8309 fed spike high
Failure to hold the 0.8283 fib 50% breaks the higher-low chain and reopens the 0.8272 asian low
US core PCE, GDP and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asian low · RSI 72 · price 0.82933
Higher-low chain since 02:00 UTC, pressing the Asian high.
USD steadying in Asia has carried price in a steady higher-low grind from the 0.8272 Asian low to the 61.8% retracement of the post-Fed drop near 0.8295, just under the 0.8297 Asian high. RSI(14) sits near 72 and late-Asia ranges are tight ahead of London open.
Support: 0.8289, 0.8272
Resistance: 0.8297, 0.8300, 0.8309
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8297 Asian high exposes the 0.8300 round number and the 0.8309 fed high
Break of the rising trendline and the 0.8289 higher low ends the Asian grind
Failure to hold the 0.8272 Asian low resumes the post-Fed downside
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read
06:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asian low, momentum flattening · RSI 59 · price 0.82893
Higher-low chain inside the 0.8272–0.8297 Asian range.
USD/CHF has rebounded on higher lows from the 0.8272 Asian low since 02:00 UTC. It is grinding to a 0.8292 session high ahead of London open and now sits on the rising trendline. The 0.8272–0.8297 Asian range still contains price after Warsh's post-Fed press conference knocked the pair off the 0.8309 fed spike high.
Support: 0.8285, 0.8282, 0.82716
Resistance: 0.82924, 0.8297, 0.83092
What it said to watch
M15 close below the rising trendline and the 0.8285 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain; loss of the 0.8282 fib 50% puts the 0.8272 asian low back in play
Close above the 0.8292 session high exposes the 0.8297 asian high, then the 0.8309 fed spike hi
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
The post-Fed presser sell-off from the 0.8309 fed spike high extended in Asia to a 0.8272 session low. Since then, a steady chain of higher lows along rising support has lifted price to 0.8291, about 75% back through the Asian drop fib. The 0.8297 Asian high and 0.8300 round number sit just overhead ahead of the London open, and RSI(14) near 63 is not stretched.
Support: 0.8285, 0.82755, 0.82716
Resistance: 0.8297, 0.8300, 0.83092
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.8285 higher low breaks the rising support chain
A break of the 0.8297 asian high and the 0.8300 round number opens the 0.8309 fed spike hi
Loss of the 0.8276 post-fed low exposes the 0.8272 session low
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asian low, steady higher lows · RSI 63 · price 0.82901
HH/HL chain from 0.8272, now in the upper half of the Asian range.
After the Fed presser whipsaw from the 0.8309 fed spike high, USDCHF set an Asian low at 0.8272 and has since built a clean higher-low chain. Price is at 0.8290, above the 61.8% retracement of the Asian drop and just under the 0.8297 Asian high ahead of London open. The dollar's post-Fed recovery in Asia, with hike bets still alive, frames the grind higher.
Support: 0.82808, 0.82716
Resistance: 0.82971, 0.8300, 0.83092
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.8297 Asian high puts the 0.8300 round number and the 0.8309 fed spike high in play
Loss of the 0.8281 higher low breaks the rising trendline and the HL chain
A move back below the 0.8272 Asian low reopens the post-Fed downside
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:17 UTC
Recovering from Asian low, higher-low chain · RSI 61 · price 0.82872
HH/HL sequence inside the 0.8272–0.8297 Asian range.
The Fed press conference spiked price to the 0.8309 fed high before it dropped to 0.8276. Asia session extended that drop to a 0.8272 asian low, then USD dip-buying built a higher-low chain to a 0.8290 session high. Price sits at the 61.8% retrace of the 0.8297–0.8272 asian swing, still inside the Asian range, with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 0.82808, 0.82716
Resistance: 0.82901, 0.82971, 0.83092
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.8297 asian high takes price out of the Asian range and brings the 0.8309 fed high into view
M15 close back below the 0.8281 higher low and rising support reverts the read to rotation toward the asian low
Rejection at the 0.8290 session high near the 61.8% retrace keeps the range intact into London open
US Core PCE / Q3 GDP at 12:30 GMT (~7h) could materially shift this read
04:47 UTC
Post-Fed lower highs, intraday recovery from Asian low · RSI 58 · price 0.82856
Asian range 0.8272–0.8297; higher lows off the 0.8272 low into a 61.8% fib test.
The Fed-hour spike to 0.8309 was rejected despite the hawkish-dissent hold. Price has stayed below the 0.8300 psych level since, and the Asian session has carved a 0.8272–0.8297 range. Late in Asia, the pair is grinding up off the 0.8272 Asian low on a higher-low chain. It is now pressing the 61.8% fib at 0.8287 with RSI(14) near 58 and price flat around EMA50.
Support: 0.8281, 0.8272
Resistance: 0.8287, 0.8297, 0.8300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.8% fib at 0.8287 opens the 0.8297 Asian high and 0.8300 psych
Loss of the 0.8281 higher low and trendline returns focus to the 0.8272 Asian low
London open in ~2h is likely to test the Asian range edges
US core PCE / Q3 GDP at 12:30 GMT (~8h) could materially shift this read
Asian range 0.8272–0.8297, grinding higher off the low.
After the post-Fed whipsaw, the pair held a 0.8276–0.8290 NY range. The early-Asia push to the 0.8297 Asian high failed, and price then swept below the range to the 0.8272 Asian low as the dollar's Asia bounce stalled. Late in the Asia session, a higher-low grind has lifted price back to 0.8285. That sits at the 50% retracement of the Asian drop and right at the EMA50, with ATR near 5 pips into the London open.
Support: 0.8281, 0.8272
Resistance: 0.8290, 0.8297
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8290 NY high re-opens the 0.8297 Asian high
Break of the 0.8281 higher low ends the grind off the Asian low
Loss of the 0.8272 Asian low extends the sweep into fresh window lows
US core PCE, GDP and claims at 12:30 UTC (~8h) could materially shift this read
04:17 UTC
Post-Fed downtrend, pausing in a recovery · RSI 44 · price 0.82814
Lower highs since the Fed spike; higher low off the Asian low.
The Fed presser bar rejected the 0.8309 fed spike high and dropped the pair to 0.8277. In Asia, the oil-driven USD bounce to the 0.8297 Asian high faded, and a dip to 0.8272 swept the 0.8274 post-fed low before demand reclaimed it. Late in the Asia session the recovery is stalling at the 50% retrace near 0.8284, with RSI(14) neutral around 44 and ATR(14) near 5.6 pips.
Support: 0.82781, 0.82716, 0.82741
Resistance: 0.82844, 0.82971, 0.83092
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8284 (50% retrace) opens the 0.8297 Asian high
Loss of the 0.8278 higher low and a close below the 0.8272 Asian low confirms a lower-low
0.8309 fed spike high is the session ceiling
US core PCE, GDP and claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 0.82716 inside Asian range 0.8272–0.8297.
The Fed hold with two hawkish dissents produced a whipsaw. Price spiked to the fed high at 0.83092, then dropped about 33 pips during Warsh's press conference. In Asia, an early pop to the asian high at 0.82971 was rejected and price slid to the asian low at 0.82716; since then a rising trendline of higher lows has lifted it back to the fib 50% at 0.82844 late in the Asia session.
Support: 0.8278, 0.82716
Resistance: 0.82844, 0.82971, 0.83092
What it said to watch
M15 close above the fib 50% at 0.82844 opens a retest of the asian high at 0.82971
Break of the rising trendline near 0.8278 puts the asian low at 0.82716 back in play
London open in ~3h may set a new session range outside 0.8272–0.8297
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:47 UTC
Downtrend since the Fed, short-term bounce · RSI 42 · price 0.82826
Lower highs from 0.8309; mid-range inside the Asian range.
USD dipped on Warsh's 'tightening is working' press conference: USDCHF whipsawed from the 0.8309 fed spike to a 0.8276 post-fed low, leaving yesterday's 0.8313 prior high well above. Late in the Asia session, a pop to the 0.8297 Asia high was rejected and price set a 0.8272 Asia low. It is now recovering mid-range near 0.8283, sitting on EMA20 and below EMA50, with RSI(14) ~42.
Support: 0.82761, 0.82716
Resistance: 0.82971, 0.83092, 0.8313
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8272 Asia low extends the lower-low sequence
Failure to hold the 0.8276 post-fed low puts the Asia low back in play
Close above the 0.8297 Asia high breaks the lower-highs trendline and exposes the 0.8309 fed spike and 0.8313 prior high
Asia leg fib 50–61.8% (0.8284–0.8287) is the first area to watch for rejection or break
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~9h) could materially shift this read; BoJ decision is also pending
Lower highs from 0.8309; late-Asia bounce stalling inside the 0.8272–0.8297 Asian range.
The Fed hold whipsawed the pair from a 0.8309 fed spike to the 0.8276 fed low, and the sequence has printed lower highs since. The Asian session ranged 0.8272–0.8297. The bounce off the 0.8272 Asian low was capped at the 0.8282 minor high, which lines up with the 38.2% of the Asian leg. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI near 43 in late Asia.
Support: 0.8276, 0.8272
Resistance: 0.8282, 0.8297, 0.8309
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8282 minor high and the lower-highs line near 0.8290 opens the 0.8297 asian high
Failure to hold the 0.8272 asian low extends the lower-low sequence beyond the 0.8276 fed low area
Reclaim of the 0.8309 fed spike high would invalidate the post-Fed lower-highs read
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~9h) could materially shift this read
03:17 UTC
Post-Fed downtrend, bounce in late Asia · RSI 51 · price 0.82809
Lower highs and lower lows since Fed spike; Asian-range drop retracing.
Warsh's 'tightening is working' presser knocked USDCHF from the 0.8309 fed spike to 0.8276. The early Asia-session pop to the 0.8297 asia high was rejected into a fresh session low at 0.8272. Price is now in late Asia, sitting at the 38.2% retrace of that drop near 0.8281 and hugging EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral at 51, while the 0.8285 lower high caps the bounce.
Support: 0.82716, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.82854, 0.82971, 0.83092
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8285 lower high exposes the 0.8297 asia high and the post-Fed lower-highs line near 0.8291
Failure to hold the 0.8272 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 0.8250 major support
Reclaim of the 0.8309 fed spike high negates the post-Fed downtrend read
Core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~9h) carry downside asymmetry for USD and could reset the intraday range
02:47 UTC
Post-Fed downtrend, small bounce off Asian low · RSI 50 · price 0.82788
Lower highs and lower lows since the Fed press conference; late Asia session.
Warsh's 'tightening is working' presser knocked USD/CHF off the 0.8309 Fed spike to a 0.8276 post-Fed low. The Asia session bounce was rejected at the 0.8297 Asian high and rolled into a lower low at 0.8272. Price sits at 0.8279, a shallow ~28% retrace of that Asia drop, with RSI(14) flat at 50 and below both EMAs.
Support: 0.82755, 0.82716
Resistance: 0.82854, 0.8297, 0.83092
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.8285 lower high, near the 61.8% fib of the Asia drop, would break the lower-high chain and expose the 0.8297 Asian high
Failure to hold the 0.8272 Asian low extends the post-Fed lower-low sequence
Descending line of lower highs from the 0.8309 Fed spike caps rallies while intact
Core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read; BoJ decision also pending
02:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since the Fed · RSI 44 · price 0.82748
Lower-high chain 0.8309 to 0.8297; fresh session low 0.8272 in mid-Asia.
The dollar dipped after Warsh's press conference, which knocked the pair from the 0.8309 fed high to 0.8276 and set a lower-high chain. The Asia session bounce was rejected at the 0.8297 asian high, just under 0.8300, and fully reversed to a fresh session low at 0.8272. RSI(14) is neutral near 44 and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 0.8272, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8285, 0.8297, 0.8309
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.8272 session low exposes the 0.8250 round number
Close above the 0.8285 lower high, near the 50% of the asia drop fib, softens the downtrend read
Recapture of the 0.8297 asian high and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the sequence; 0.8309 fed high above
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
02:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 44 · price 0.82739
Lower-high chain off the 0.8297 Asia high, fresh low under post-Fed lows.
The post-Fed spike to 0.8309 reversed hard as the dollar dipped on Warsh's press conference. The Asian bounce to 0.8297 met rejection and was fully retraced, with lower highs down to 0.8285 pushing price to a fresh asia low at 0.8272, just under the post-fed low cluster near 0.8275. RSI(14) ~44 and ATR ~7 pips, mid-Asia session.
Support: 0.82716, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8275, 0.8285, 0.8297
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.8275 post-fed low turns the new low into a false break
Close above the 0.8285 lower high, near the 50% asia leg fib, breaks the lower-high chain
Acceptance below the 0.8272 asia low leaves the 0.8250 uob support as the next marked level
London open in ~5h is the first test of the Asian range
Core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC, plus the BoJ decision, could materially shift this read
Lower highs 0.8313/0.8309/0.8297, floor holding at 0.8274.
The post-Warsh dip took USDCHF from the 0.8309 fed spike hi down to 0.8276, and the early-Asia bounce to the 0.8297 asia high stalled near the 61.8% retrace of the 0.8313 2-week high to 0.8274 leg. The bounce fully reversed into a second test of the 0.8274 asia low. Mid-Asia session, price is sitting below both EMAs with RSI near 47.
Support: 0.82745, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8297, 0.83092, 0.8313
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8274 asia low extends the lower-low sequence toward 0.8250 supp
Close above the 0.8297 asia high breaks the lower-high trendline and turns the read to a range back toward the 0.8309 fed spike hi
Holding 0.8274 on repeat tests keeps price ranging 0.8274–0.8297, with the 0.8313 2-week high out of reach
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
01:47 UTC
Post-Fed downswing, now ranging · RSI 49 · price 0.82824
Range 0.8274–0.8297 below the Fed-spike lower high.
Warsh's press conference knocked USD/CHF from the 0.8309 fed spike to the 0.8277 area in NY hours, well off the 0.8313 day high. The Asia session pushed to 0.8297, near the 61.8% of the fed-day fib, and was rejected back toward the 0.8274 range low. Price now sits mid-range with RSI(14) flat near 49, ATR(14) around 6 pips and no setup in play.
Support: 0.8274, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8297, 0.8309, 0.8313
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.8297 asia high breaks the range and brings the 0.8309 fed spike back into play.
Loss of the 0.8274 range low extends the post-Fed lower-low sequence toward 0.8250 key support.
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~11h) could materially shift this read.
Warsh's less-hawkish-than-feared presser knocked USD/CHF from the 0.8309 Fed spike high to 0.8276 in NY. The Asian bounce to 0.8297 stalled at the 61.8% of that post-Fed drop and was fully reversed, putting price back at the 0.8274 Asian low with RSI(14) near 45, below both EMAs.
Support: 0.8274, 0.8250
Resistance: 0.8297, 0.8309
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8274 Asian low extends the post-Fed lower-low sequence toward the 0.8250 round number
Reclaim of the 0.8297 Asian high (61.8% of the post-Fed drop) negates the lower-high read and reopens 0.8309
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~11h) could materially shift this read
Range 0.8274–0.8297 after Fed whipsaw broke pre-Fed range low.
The Fed hold whipsawed the pair to a 0.8309 fed spike before USD sold off on a less-hawkish-than-feared read, breaking the 0.8288 pre-Fed low and basing near the 0.8274 asian low. Early Asia rallied to 0.8297, where the asian high saw rejection, and price is now holding the 50% retracement of that leg around the 0.8285 pullback low.
Support: 0.82853, 0.82741
Resistance: 0.82971, 0.83092
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.8285 pullback low exposes the 0.8274 asian low
Acceptance above the 0.8297 asian high reopens the 0.8309 fed spike
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~11h) could materially shift this read
The Fed press conference spiked the pair to 0.8309 before USD sold off broadly as the hold read less hawkish than feared, carving a post-Fed low at 0.8274 late in NY hours. Early Asia's bounce was rejected at 0.8297, the asian high and near the 61.8% of the Fed move fib, and price is now retesting the 0.8288 pre-Fed low area.
Support: 0.82876, 0.82741
Resistance: 0.82971, 0.8300, 0.83092
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.8297 asian high and the 0.8300 psych level would shift the read toward a full retrace to the 0.8309 fed spike
Failure to hold the 0.8288 pre-Fed low reopens the 0.8274 post-fed low
Core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~11h) could materially shift this read
Post-Fed range broken higher at Asia open, now retesting the 0.8290 break area.
The Fed hold spiked the pair to 0.8309 (fed spike), then it sold off to the 0.8274 post-fed low as USD slipped on a less-hawkish read. The Asia session opened with a break above the 0.8290 post-Fed range top that met rejection at the 0.8297 rebound high, the 61.8% of the post-Fed drop. Price is now holding the fib 50% near 0.8292.
Support: 0.82917, 0.82876, 0.82741
Resistance: 0.8297, 0.83092, 0.8313
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.8288 pre-fed low puts price back inside the post-Fed range
Close above the 0.8297 rebound high exposes the 0.8309 fed spike and the 0.8313 london high
Failure to hold the fib 50% at 0.8292 weakens the range-break read
US core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~12h) could materially shift this read
Range break higher from the 0.8274–0.8282 post-Fed base.
The Fed hold produced a whipsaw: a spike to the 0.8309 Fed high reversed into a 0.8274–0.8282 base that held through the NY session, with a post-Fed low at 0.8274. Early Asia session broke that base in two strong bars. Price sits at 0.8297, past the 61.8% retrace of the Fed move and pressing the 0.8300 round number, with the 0.8313 London high from Tuesday above.
Support: 0.82888, 0.82741
Resistance: 0.8300, 0.83092, 0.8313
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8300 round number opens the Fed high at 0.8309, then the 0.8313 London high
Slip back below the 0.8289 breakout lvl would turn the Asia move into a false break back into the base
Loss of the 0.8274 post-fed low confirms a lower-low
US core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~12h) could materially shift this read
Lower lows from 0.8313; post-Fed range 0.8274–0.8291, price at range top.
The Fed hold whipsawed USDCHF from a 0.8309 fed spike hi to 0.8276 as USD sold off, extending the slide from the 0.8313 two-week high to a 0.8274 post-fed low late in NY. The first Asia session bar lifted 13 pips to 0.8289, into the 38.2% of the fed swing fib and the 0.8291 fed bounce highs. Price is sitting on EMA50 with EMA20 near 0.8282.
Support: 0.8282, 0.8274
Resistance: 0.8291, 0.8300, 0.8309
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.8291 fed bounce and the 50% fib near 0.8292 opens the 0.8300 round number, then the 0.8309 fed spike hi
Rejection at 0.8291 and a slip back under ema20 at 0.8282 keeps the lower-low sequence intact toward the 0.8274 post-fed low
Break below 0.8274 confirms a fresh lower low in the post-Fed downtrend
US core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~12h) could materially shift this read
00:03 UTC
Downtrend after Fed, stalling in Asia · RSI 54 · price 0.82808
Post-Fed lower highs; tight Asian range above the post-Fed low.
The fed sell-off ran from the 0.8313 London-open high: a sell-the-fact USD dip took the 0.8309 fed spike to 0.8276 inside one bar, and the 0.8291 lower high capped the follow-up bounce. Early in the Asia session the pair is ranging between 0.8274 and 0.8283. A brief sweep of the post-fed low to the 0.8274 asia low was reclaimed, and RSI(14) sits neutral near 54 with ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 0.8276, 0.82741
Resistance: 0.82827, 0.82909, 0.83092
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.8283 asia high opens a retest of the 0.8291 lower high
Failure to hold the 0.8274 asia low extends the post-Fed downtrend
A reclaim of the 0.8309 fed spike high would unwind the fed sell-off read
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~12h) could materially shift this read