A four-month climb peaked near 163.90 in late July before US-Japan intervention drove USD/JPY sharply lower to an intervention low at 155.25. Price now consolidates in the 157-158 band, holding a swing low near 157.15 but pinned below EMA(20) and EMA(50). The 160.00 round number caps any recovery, with the prior high at 163.90 a distant ceiling.
Support: 157.15, 155.25
Resistance: 160.00, 163.90
What it said to watch
Daily close above 160.00 would unwind the reversal structure
Failure to hold the 155.25 intervention low opens deeper downside
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is the week's dominant catalyst for this read
The quarter-long climb to 163.99 unwound violently in late July as coordinated US-Japan intervention slammed USD/JPY to a 155.22 low, snapping the HH/HL chain and dragging price back below both EMA20 and EMA50. The pair has since clawed into a tight 157-158 band, capped by the 200-day area near 158.00. Price now sits mid-range at 157.74 with RSI recovering off oversold but momentum still down.
Support: 157.00, 155.22
Resistance: 158.00, 160.00
What it said to watch
Daily close back above 158.00 (200-day area) reopens the 160.00 ceiling
Loss of 157.00 exposes the 155.22 intervention low
US NFP on Fri Aug 7 is the dominant catalyst and could materially shift this read