A four-month uptrend from the April lows capped twice near 163.95, forming a double top before coordinated US-Japan intervention drove a two-figure plunge to 155.23. Price has since bounced to 157.50 but sits well below EMA20 and EMA50, with the 200-day near 158.02 now acting as overhead resistance and an intervention-risk zone. The swing high at 160.88 and prior peaks at 163.95 mark the ceilings that broke down on the reversal.
Support: 155.23, 153.00
Resistance: 158.02, 160.88, 163.95
What it said to watch
Daily close back above the 200-day at 158.02 would neutralise the reversal read
Failure to hold the 155.23 intervention low opens the path toward the 153.00 tds floor
US NFP Friday and Wed ADP/ISM Services are the dominant catalysts for the next sessions
A four-month grind higher into a double top near 163.9 was violently unwound this week by coordinated MoF/US yen-buying intervention (~$87bn), which drove USD/JPY roughly two figures lower to 155.23 before a partial bounce back to 157.50. Price now sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with the 200-day at 158.02 capping the recovery, the same ceiling flagged as an intervention-risk zone. The weekly cadence has flipped from steady advance to a single-week vertical breakdown.
Support: 155.23, 155.00
Resistance: 158.02, 159.54
What it said to watch
D1 close above the 200-day at 158.02 reopens the path toward 159.54
Failure to hold the 155.23 intervention low confirms a fresh lower low toward psych 155.00
US NFP Friday is the dominant near-term driver and could force a retest of 158.02
Renewed intervention headlines on any approach to 158 would cap the rebound