USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Tuesday, 4 August 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:02 UTC
Downtrend, recovering off lows · RSI 44 · price 157.758
Higher lows since 155.23, capped under 158.02.
Coordinated US-Japan yen-buying intervention flushed USD/JPY roughly eight figures from the 163.90 area down to 155.23, marking a sharp structural break lower. Since that low the pair has carved a sequence of higher lows and is now compressing just under the 200-day-referenced 158.02 ceiling, with ATR(14) easing from its intervention-driven spike. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, which remain elevated near the pre-crash range.
Support: 157.21, 155.23
Resistance: 158.02, 159.54
What it said to watch
H4 close above 158.02 opens the path back toward 159.54 — also the flagged intervention-risk zone
Failure to hold 157.21 and a break of 155.23 confirms a fresh lower low
US NFP Friday is the dominant driver and could break this consolidation either way
A coordinated US-Japan intervention drove a sharp two-figure selloff from ~163.9 to the 155.23 low, snapping the prior grind higher. Price has since carved higher lows and is recovering back toward the 158.02 200-day, the flagged intervention-risk ceiling. ATR(14) remains elevated from the intervention candles as the base rounds out below that cap.
Support: 156.24, 155.23
Resistance: 158.02, 159.54
What it said to watch
H4 close above 158.02 opens a retest toward the 159.54 lower high, but this is a flagged intervention-risk zone
Failure to hold 156.24 exposes the 155.23 intervention low
US NFP Friday is the dominant near-term driver and could materially shift this read
17:02 UTC
Downtrend, recovering off lows · RSI 45 · price 157.447
Sharp break from 163-164 plateau, higher lows forming since 155.23.
USDJPY collapsed from the 163-164 plateau after the coordinated US-Japan intervention slammed spot roughly two figures to 155.23, and price has since carved higher lows back toward 157.5. ATR remains elevated after the intervention shock, keeping the range wide. The 158.00 pivot is capping the recovery, with 159.50-160.70 the prior supply overhead.
Support: 155.23
Resistance: 158.00, 159.50, 160.70
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close above 158.00 opens the 159.50-160.70 zone where intervention risk returns
Failure to hold 155.23 reopens the 153.00 area
US NFP Friday is the dominant driver and could reset this read
17:02 UTC
Downtrend, recovering off lows · RSI 46 · price 157.447
Sharp breakdown, higher lows rebuilding.
The multi-day 162-164 range collapsed on the coordinated US-Japan intervention, dumping USD/JPY nearly two figures to 155.23 before demand stepped in. Price has since carved a series of higher lows back to 157.45, a rounded recovery that still trades below both EMA20 and EMA50 with ATR(14) sharply expanded from the shock. The 158.00 psych area caps the rebound, with the intervention low at 155.23 marking the downside pivot.
Support: 155.23
Resistance: 158.00, 159.50
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close above 158.00 extends the recovery toward 159.50
Loss of 155.23 intervention low reopens the path lower toward 153.00
US NFP Friday is the dominant driver and could reset this read
13:02 UTC
Downtrend, recovering off lows · RSI 48 · price 157.428
Higher lows since Monday's 155.23 base.
USDJPY was violently repriced lower last week as coordinated US-Japan yen buying broke a month-long 162-163 shelf, driving price to a 155.23 low on Monday. Since then a staircase of higher lows has rebuilt into the mid-157s, with ATR(14) near 114 pips still reflecting an elevated volatility regime post-intervention. Price sits well below both EMA20 and EMA50, so the bounce remains a recovery within the broader break lower toward the 158 200-day SMA.
Support: 156.24, 155.23
Resistance: 158.00, 159.50
What it said to watch
H4 close above 158.00 (200d sma) extends the recovery toward 159.50
Failure to hold 156.24 reopens the path to Monday's 155.23 low
US NFP Friday and any fresh intervention headlines are the dominant catalysts for this pair
13:01 UTC
Downtrend, recovering off lows · RSI 45 · price 157.428
Post-crash base, higher lows since monday.
The rare coordinated US-Japan intervention slammed USD/JPY roughly six figures from the 163.90s to Monday's 155.23 low, breaking the multi-week uptrend structure decisively. Price is now basing on higher lows and has clawed back into the mid-157s, but stalled and closed off the 157.96 session high, keeping the recovery capped below the 200-day area near 158. ATR(14) remains elevated after the crash bars, signalling the volatility regime is still expanded.
Support: 155.23
Resistance: 157.96
What it said to watch
H4 close above 158 opens path back toward the 160 intervention cap
Failure to hold 155.23 confirms a fresh lower low
US NFP Friday is the key USDJPY catalyst and could reset this read
09:02 UTC
Downtrend, stabilizing after intervention · RSI 44 · price 157.797
Sharp lower low, basing above 155.
USDJPY was slammed from ~163.9 to a 155.23 swing low on confirmed joint US-Japan intervention, one of the steepest H4 impulses in the window. Price has since carved a series of higher lows to grind back to 157.8, but remains well below the EMA20/EMA50 with ATR sharply elevated. The 158 area, near the 200-day, is the first structural cap on the recovery; 155.23 is the base being defended.
Support: 155.23
Resistance: 159.57
What it said to watch
H4 close above 158 (200-day) opens path toward the 159.57 bounce high
Failure to hold 155.23 swing low confirms a fresh lower-low
Fresh MoF/Treasury intervention risk defends the 160 psych line
Friday US NFP is the week's main catalyst for the USD side
09:02 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising off lows · RSI 44 · price 157.797
Range break lower, higher lows forming.
The multi-week 161-164 range collapsed in a single vertical drop to 155.23 as confirmed US-Japan joint yen intervention slammed the pair ~8 figures. Price has since carved a sequence of higher lows off 155.23 back to 157.80, but sits below both EMA20 and EMA50 with ATR(14) still elevated near 113 pips as the shock unwinds. The 200-day area around 158.00 is the first structural cap on this recovery.
Support: 155.23, 156.24
Resistance: 158.00, 159.56, 160.00
What it said to watch
Reclaim and hold above 158.00 200-day opens the path to the 159.56 fib 50%
Failure to hold 156.24 higher-low and a break of 155.23 swing low confirms a fresh lower low
Friday's US NFP is the week's main catalyst for the USD side and could reset this read
USDJPY collapsed from ~164 to a 155.23 swing low on confirmed US-Japan intervention, snapping the prior uptrend. Price is now grinding off recovery lows back toward the 158 200-dma, which capped the initial bounce alongside the 160 bounce high. ATR(14) remains sharply elevated near 120 pips, reflecting intervention-driven volatility.
Support: 155.23
What it said to watch
H4 close above 158 200-dma needed to extend the recovery
Failure to hold 155.23 swing low confirms a lower low
ADP (Wed 12:15 UTC) and ISM Services plus fresh intervention headlines could materially shift this read
Price collapsed out of the 162-164 multi-week range on coordinated US-Japan JPY intervention, cratering from ~164 to a 155.23 low before stabilising. A sequence of higher lows off 155.23 has since built into a recovery bounce back to 157.50, with ATR(14) hugely elevated after the intervention spike. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, capped beneath the 158 200-day sma and the 156.80 pivot now reclaimed.
Support: 156.80, 155.23
What it said to watch
H4 close below 155 confirms a fresh lower low and breaks the intervention floor
Reclaim of 158 200-day sma opens the path back toward the 160 intervention-cap zone
Japan Labor Cash Earnings 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USD/JPY collapsed from ~164 on the coordinated US-Japan intervention, cratering through 158 and printing a low at 155.22 before stabilising. Price is now consolidating in a 155.22-157.88 band, well below both EMA20 and EMA50, with the 200-day sma near 158 and the 160 intervention-cap zone the overhead references. ATR remains elevated after the crash, but the last several bars have compressed into a tight basing range off the low.
Support: 155.23
Resistance: 158.00, 159.57
What it said to watch
H4 close above 158.00 (200-day sma) would open the path back toward 159.57
Failure to hold 155.23 confirms a fresh lower-low
Labor Cash Earnings 23:30 UTC and any fresh MoF/Treasury intervention headline could materially shift this read