Range-bound after breakdown; higher lows building off 155.23.
USDJPY collapsed from the 164 region to the 155.23 intervention low over the past two weeks, an unwind tied to the NFP miss (-23K vs +80K f/c) gutting the hawkish-Fed narrative. Price has since based and recovered into 158.55 before rolling back to 157.5, now consolidating between 156.67 and the 158.55 range high. ATR remains elevated from the crash but is compressing as the range tightens.
Support: 156.673, 155.225
Resistance: 158.552, 159.506
What it said to watch
H4 close below 156.67 swing low exposes the 155.23 intervention low
Reclaim of the 158.55 range high needed to challenge 159.50
USDJPY collapsed roughly 800 pips to 155.23 late in the window on coordinated US-Japan intervention, then clawed back about six figures to grind against the 158.55 Fibonacci cap. Higher-low structure holds since the 155.23 low, with price now consolidating just above the 200-day SMA at 158.06 as fiscal-funding concerns and the wide rate gap keep a floor under the pair. ATR has normalised as the recovery coils below 158.55 ahead of today's US payrolls.
Support: 158.06, 157.25, 155.23
Resistance: 158.55, 160.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 158.55 fibo cap opens the path toward the 160.00 intervention-risk zone
Loss of the 200-day SMA at 158.06 then the 157.25 swing low would break the recovery's higher-low sequence
US NFP at 12:30 GMT is the dominant near-term catalyst; a sizeable miss risks a JPY short-squeeze back toward 155.23
Higher lows since 155.23, retracing the crash leg.
USDJPY collapsed nearly 900 pips on last week's US-Japan intervention to 155.23, and price has since ground higher in a steady higher-low recovery back to the 158.55 (38.2%) retracement, where the 200-day SMA at 158.06 sits just below. The last several bars have coiled tightly under 158.55, ATR(14) compressing as the intervention retrace stalls into event risk. This band caps the recovery while the reclaimed 158.06 area acts as the near-term pivot.
Support: 158.06, 157.25, 155.23
Resistance: 158.55, 160.00
What it said to watch
US NFP + wages in ~4h is the dominant driver for this read
H4 close above 158.55 fibo opens the path toward 160.00
Failure to hold 158.06 exposes 157.25 then the 155.23 intervention low
Fresh intervention headlines would abruptly cap the recovery
Higher lows off 155.23, grinding into fib resistance.
The intervention-driven collapse to 155.23 has been steadily retraced, with price now consolidating just under the 38.2% fibo at 158.55 after building a series of higher lows. ATR has cooled well off the crash-bar extremes, consistent with the current grind-up. JPY softness on fiscal doubts is fading the intervention, but US NFP in roughly four hours is the dominant near-term catalyst.
Support: 157.25, 155.23
Resistance: 158.55, 160.00
What it said to watch
US NFP in ~4h could materially shift this read
H4 close above 158.55 fibo opens the path to 160.00
Failure to hold 157.25 exposes the 155.23 intervention low
USDJPY was gutted by the late-July intervention, cratering from 163.90 to 155.23 in two sessions. Price has since ground higher in a sequence of higher lows and this week reclaimed the 200-day SMA near 158.06, printing a session high at 158.55 — the 38.2% retrace of that drop. ATR has compressed back to ~30 pips as the pair coils under 158.55 ahead of US NFP.
Support: 158.06, 157.18, 155.23
Resistance: 158.55, 160.00
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC is the swing factor for the next H4 bars
H4 close above 158.55 opens the 160.00 psych zone where intervention risk rises
Loss of 158.06 exposes 157.18 then the 155.23 intervention low
The intervention-driven crash to 155.23 marked a capitulation low, and price has since carved a series of higher lows back above the 200-day SMA near 158.06, now sitting at 158.40. The recovery leg is a steady grind rather than an impulsive push, with ATR(14) compressing back to ~40 pips after the volatility spike. EMA20 sits below price while EMA50 remains overhead — a legacy of the pre-crash 164 handle — so the medium structure is still repairing.
Support: 158.06, 157.18, 155.23
Resistance: 160.00
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC is the dominant catalyst and could shift this read materially
H4 close back below 158.06 (200d sma) exposes 157.18 then the 155.23 crash low
160.00 is the area to watch for rejection given renewed intervention risk
USDJPY collapsed nearly 900 pips from the 163.9 area on the reported record ¥8.45tn coordinated intervention, bottoming at 155.23 before stabilising around the 157.50 pivot. Price has since carved higher lows and pushed above the 158.00 handle, with the latest impulse candle tagging the 158.55 range high. Below the EMA50 but holding above a rising EMA20, structure reads as a recovery within the post-intervention consolidation.
Support: 157.50, 156.12, 155.23
Resistance: 158.55, 159.57, 160.00
What it said to watch
US NFP today 12:30 UTC is the dominant driver — a soft print risks a retest of 157.50 and the 155.23 spike low
H4 close above 158.55 range high opens the path toward 159.57 and 160.00
Failure to hold 157.50 pivot reopens downside toward 156.12
Consolidation above 157.50 after intervention flush.
The record intervention flush dumped USDJPY from 163.98 to a 155.23 low before price stabilised into a tight consolidation around the 157.50 200-day pivot. Buyers have since nudged the pair above 158.00, clearing the base range with ATR(14) compressed, while price still sits below EMA50 from the pre-crash regime. Today's US NFP (12:30 UTC) is the dominant swing factor after the weak 44K ADP print.
Support: 157.50, 155.23
Resistance: 159.50, 160.00
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC is the near-term driver and could reset this read
Failure to hold 157.50 200-ema reopens the 155.23 spike low
H4 close above 159.50 swing / 160.00 psych would mark a regime shift