USDJPY has ground higher all week on carry and the hawkish-Fed repricing, printing a fresh high at 161.92 before a violent same-bar rejection back to 161.07 in the NY session. Price has since recovered to 161.55 and is hovering just above EMA(20), with RSI(14) cooling to mid-50s as the spike rejection capped momentum near the July-2024 high at 161.75. The 161.07 swing low marks the base of that rejection and now anchors the higher-low sequence.
Support: 161.07
Resistance: 161.75, 161.92
What it said to watch
H1 close above 161.92 opens path higher but the 161.75 jul-24 high invites MoF intervention risk
Failure to hold 161.07 breaks the week's higher-low structure
Tokyo CPI Jun 25 23:30 UTC could shift the carry-driven read
Higher highs into resistance, post-spike consolidation.
USDJPY has trended up since Monday's 160.30 open, carry and Fed-hike repricing keeping the yen pinned near 2-year lows. A sharp spike down to 161.07 in the NY session yesterday was quickly bought back, leaving price consolidating above EMA20 with RSI(14) cycling in the mid-50s. The 161.75 July-2024 high has capped the latest push and remains the area to monitor for rejection or break.
Support: 161.40, 161.07
Resistance: 161.75, 161.93
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 161.75 opens the path toward the 161.93 week high
Loss of 161.40 then 161.07 would confirm a lower-low and break the higher-low sequence
Tokyo CPI Jun 25 23:30 UTC and standing MoF intervention risk above 161.50 could materially shift this read
Higher highs into 161.92, pullback holding above week support.
USDJPY ground higher through the week on the carry and hawkish-Fed theme, tagging 161.92 before a sharp high-volume rejection in the NY session dragged it back toward 161.16. Price has since recovered to sit just under EMA(20), with RSI(14) cycling near the midline. The week high and the 161.70 prior-high cluster cap upside, while demand around 161.42 has so far contained the pullback.
Support: 161.42, 161.16
Resistance: 161.70, 161.92
What it said to watch
H1 close above 161.92 reopens the July-2024 high near 161.75 and the MoF intervention-watch zone
Failure to hold 161.42 exposes the 161.16 drop low
Tokyo CPI Jun 25 could shift the JPY read; intervention risk elevated above 161.75
Higher highs into multi-year resistance, sharp rejection wick.
USD/JPY has ground higher all week, pushing into the July-2024 high zone near 161.75 as the hawkish-Fed repricing and wide rate gaps keep the yen pinned. A NY-session spike to 161.925 was instantly rejected back to 161.07 before recovering, leaving a clear sweep of the highs. Price now sits just above EMA(20) with RSI(14) cooling from the rejection rather than confirming fresh strength.
Support: 161.07, 160.40
Resistance: 161.75, 161.92
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 close above 161.92 extends the week high but raises MoF intervention risk into the jul-24 high
Failure to hold 161.07 swing low signals a deeper unwind toward the week open at 160.40
Tokyo CPI Jun 25 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USD/JPY extended its week-long climb toward 161.92, near two-year highs, on the hawkish-Fed/carry backdrop and a soft JPY. The highest-volume bar of the week printed a sharp wick down to 161.07 around the 161.75 intervention zone before recovering — a rejection that left price back at 161.60 holding above EMA20. Higher lows since Monday remain intact and RSI is cycling in the mid-50s after the pullback.
Support: 161.40, 161.07
Resistance: 161.75, 161.92
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 161.92 opens the path toward 162.00
161.75 interv zone — area to watch for repeat rejection or break
Failure to hold 161.40 day low threatens the higher-low sequence
Tokyo CPI Thu and US flash PMIs Tue could materially shift this read
Higher highs into 161.92, sharp rejection then recovery.
USDJPY has trended up since Monday's open near 160.40, grinding to a 161.92 week high as the hawkish Fed and crowded short-JPY carry kept the bid alive. The advance stalled at 161.92 on the highest-volume bar of the week, a sharp drop to 161.07 — consistent with the intervention zone flagged around 161.75 — before price recovered to 161.60 above both EMAs. RSI(14) sits mid-range near 54 after the spike, with the week-impulse trendline of higher lows still intact.
Support: 161.40, 161.07
Resistance: 161.75, 161.92
What it said to watch
H1 close above 161.75 reopens the path to the 161.92 week high
Failure to hold 161.40 swing low exposes the 161.07 spike low
Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC and renewed intervention risk near 161.75 could shift the read
Higher highs/higher lows, sharp spike-down rejection at 161.92.
USDJPY has ground higher all week off the 160.18 low, with pullbacks repeatedly finding the H1 EMA(20) and RSI(14) cycling around 55 on each dip. Price tagged 161.92 in the NY session before a violent spike to 161.07 and snapback — consistent with the verbal intervention warnings clustered around the 161.75 zone, the highest since mid-2024. Hawkish-Fed-driven USD demand keeps the bias firm, but the 161.75-161.92 band is now visibly capping advances.
Support: 161.42, 161.07
Resistance: 161.75, 161.92
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 close above 161.92 opens fresh two-year highs
161.75 is the flagged intervention zone — area to watch for rejection or break
Failure to hold 161.42 swing low confirms a lower-low
Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could materially shift the JPY read
USDJPY ground to fresh near-two-year highs at 161.90 since Monday's open, riding the hawkish-Fed USD bid and crowded short-JPY carry. The most recent NY-hours bar swept the highs and rejected hard (161.92 down to 161.07) before recovering, leaving price back below EMA(20) with RSI(14) cooled to mid-40s. The week's rising support off Monday's 160.12 base still holds.
Support: 161.16
Resistance: 161.75, 161.90
What it said to watch
161.75 intervention zone — area to watch for rejection or MoF action
Close above 161.90 week high opens the path higher
Failure to hold 161.16 swing low signals a deeper pullback
US flash PMIs Tue and Tokyo CPI Thu could shift this read
Higher highs into 161.92, sharp pullback below EMA20.
USDJPY extended its hawkish-Fed-driven impulse off Monday's 160.12 low to 161.92 — the highest since mid-2024 — before a sharp rejection during NY hours drove an 85-pip drop. Price has since stabilised just under the EMA(20) near 161.62, holding above the 161.16 swing low and the 160.95 breakout zone, with RSI(14) cooling toward the midline. Intervention rhetoric from Tokyo remains the dominant two-way risk while the pair sits above 160.
Support: 161.16, 160.95
Resistance: 161.62, 161.75, 161.92
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 161.62 EMA(20) re-engages the 161.75 prior high and 161.92 week high
Failure to hold the 161.16 swing low opens a deeper retrace toward the 160.95 breakout zone
Tokyo CPI Thu and any MoF/BoJ intervention headlines could sharply shift this read
Higher highs into 161.92, sharp pullback off the top.
USDJPY rallied steadily from Monday's 160.46 open to a 161.92 week high, riding the hawkish-Fed USD bid and crowded yen-carry backdrop. A sharp NY-session rejection on the highest-volume bar of the week dragged price back to 161.07 before stabilising near 161.45, now sitting just below the EMA20 (~161.60) with RSI flattening around 49 against the prior higher highs. The 161.75 prior high capped the move while the spike low at 161.07 marks the pullback floor.
Support: 161.30, 161.07
Resistance: 161.60, 161.75, 161.92
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 161.60 ema20 reopens the 161.75 prior high and 161.92 week high
Failure to hold 161.30 intraday low exposes the 161.07 spike low
Tokyo CPI Thu and ongoing intervention rhetoric are off-chart risks that could shift this read sharply
18:01 UTC
Uptrend stalling after rejection at the highs · RSI 49 · price 161.505
Higher-highs into 161.90 then sharp reversal, now consolidating.
USD/JPY ground higher all week on the carry and Fed-hawkish/Iran USD bid, tagging a near 2-year high at 161.92 before a heavy-volume reversal in the NY session wiped out the spike back to 161.07 — consistent with the elevated MoF intervention risk around 40-year lows. Price has since recovered to 161.50 but is sitting just below the EMA(20), with RSI(14) back near 50 after the flush. The week's uptrend structure holds while 161.07 survives, but the rejection at 161.90 has capped the advance.
Support: 161.07
Resistance: 161.77, 161.92
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 161.77 reopens the 161.92 2yr high
Loss of 161.07 spike low breaks the week's higher-low sequence
Tokyo CPI Thu and persistent MoF intervention risk could reshape this read
Higher highs into 2-year peak, sharp rejection then partial recovery.
USDJPY ground higher through the week toward the July-2024 area near 161.92, extending the carry-driven trend as the post-FOMC dollar stayed bid and the yen failed to firm after the BoJ hike. The latest session saw a sharp wick down to 161.07 before price recovered to 161.50, leaving a clear rejection just shy of the 2-year peak. Holding above EMA(20) with RSI(14) cycling in the mid-50s on pullbacks.
Support: 161.30, 161.07
Resistance: 161.75, 161.92
What it said to watch
Rejection near 161.75 prior high keeps Japanese verbal-intervention risk live
H1 close below 161.30 intraday low confirms a lower high
Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher highs into 161.92 then sharp intraday flush.
USDJPY has trended up all week from Monday's ~161.22 open, printing a fresh two-year high at 161.925 before a sharp rejection in the NY session flushed price to 161.072 and back toward 161.55. The move tracks broad USD haven bids on stalled US-Iran talks and persistent JPY carry weakness. Price now sits just under EMA(20) with RSI(14) back near the midline after the failure at the highs.
Support: 161.072, 161.222
Resistance: 161.925
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above 161.92 reopens the path to fresh highs
Loss of the 161.07 spike low exposes the 161.22 weekly open
Intervention risk elevated above 161.50 — verbal warnings from MoF could force sharp short-covering
USDJPY trended up all week from Monday's 160.43 open to a high of 161.92 in NY hours, with JPY pinned near two-year lows on USD haven bids and persistent carry flows. The latest bar saw a violent drop from 161.92 to 161.07 before reclaiming to 161.55 — a deep wick that swept the downside and recovered, leaving price back above EMA20. RSI(14) has cooled toward mid-range after the run.
Support: 161.50, 161.07
Resistance: 161.92
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 161.07 confirms a lower low and breaks the rising support
Reclaim of 161.92 reopens the path toward fresh two-year highs
Intervention risk elevated above 161.75 — area to watch for sharp rejection
Higher highs into 161.90, sharp wick rejection on last bar.
USD/JPY has ground higher all week on a firm dollar haven bid and crowded short-JPY carry, tagging a fresh 2-year high at 161.90 in the NY session before a sharp wick drove price down to 161.07 and back — the kind of two-way spike consistent with live intervention jitters. Price now sits just under EMA(20) but holds above EMA(50), with RSI(14) cooling off the 60s after the rejection. The week-high zone at 161.90 has capped the latest push.
Support: 161.07
Resistance: 161.90, 162.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 161.90 reopens the path toward the 162.00 psych level
Failure to hold 161.07 spike low would confirm a deeper pullback into the EMA(50)
Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC and any actual MoF/BoJ intervention could sharply shift this read
USDJPY ground to a fresh two-year high near 161.90 in NY hours before a sharp wick down to 161.07 and recovery back toward 161.50 — consistent with the live Japanese intervention threat against a backdrop of USD haven bid and crowded short-JPY carry. Price has held above EMA(20) since the Tuesday push higher, with RSI(14) cycling in the 55–65 band. The 161.90 area has now capped, while demand stepped in quickly into the 161.07 low.
Support: 161.16, 160.92
Resistance: 161.90
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 161.90 opens fresh two-year highs
Failure to hold 161.16 reopens the 160.92 swing low
MoF/BoJ intervention headlines could trigger sharp wicks
USDJPY ran higher through the week on USD haven demand and a fragile yen, pressing the July-2024 peak at 161.81 and spiking to 161.92 before a sharp NY-session rejection dumped price back to 161.30 on heavy volume. That candle was a clean false break of the two-year high, and RSI(14) has cooled back toward the midline as price slips below EMA20. The 161.00 psych area and 161.07 swing low now mark the floor of this week's advance.
Support: 161.07, 161.00
Resistance: 161.81, 161.92
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 161.81 reopens the two-year high and the 161.92 session high
Failure to hold 161.00 confirms the rejection and a deeper pullback
MoF intervention headline could trigger a sharp squeeze given crowded shorts
Higher highs into 2-yr peak, then a sweep and snap-back.
USD/JPY pressed to a fresh two-year high near 161.92 into the NY session before a violent reversal on the latest bar, shedding ~60 pips on the heaviest volume of the week as the 161.81 July-2024 peak capped the move. The run was powered by haven USD bids and the rate-differential story keeping the yen offered; price now sits back below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI cooling toward 50. The sweep of the two-year high and immediate snap-back leaves the weekly open at 161.22 as the next structural reference.
Support: 161.07, 161.22, 161.00
Resistance: 161.81, 161.92
What it said to watch
H1 close back above 161.81 reopens the two-year high
Failure to hold 161.07 confirms a lower-low after the sweep
MoF intervention headlines near 161.50+ could force a sharp squeeze
USDJPY has trended higher all week off Monday's 160.20 base, with the USD haven bid and a soft yen carrying price through the July-2024 high at 161.81 into the NY session. The last bars print fresh 2-yr highs near 161.90, holding above EMA20 with RSI cycling in the high-60s. Pullbacks this week have repeatedly found support and stalled buyers have been absorbed near each higher low.
Support: 161.81
What it said to watch
Acceptance above 161.81 keeps the breakout intact; a slip back below it puts the move back into the prior consolidation
USD/JPY at 2-yr highs raises MoF intervention risk — a headline could trigger a sharp squeeze
Tokyo CPI Jun 25 23:30 UTC could shift the read on the yen leg
14:01 UTC
Uptrend, pressing 2-yr high · RSI 68 · price 161.881
Higher highs and higher lows this week.
USD/JPY has ground higher all week, holding above EMA(20) on every pullback as the rate-differential bid and Iran-driven haven demand kept the yen offered. Price has cleared the July-2024 2-yr high near 161.81 and is now probing the week high at 161.90 with RSI(14) cycling in the high-60s. Demand stepped in repeatedly around 161.65 on this week's pullbacks, keeping the higher-low sequence intact.
Support: 161.65, 161.50
Resistance: 161.90, 162.00, 161.81
What it said to watch
Sustained close above 162.00 extends the breakout from the 2-yr high
Loss of 161.50 breaks this week's higher-low structure
MoF intervention risk elevated this close to the 2-yr high
USDJPY has ground steadily higher across the week on the hawkish-Fed rate-differential bid, holding above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) cycling in the 55-70 band on each pullback. The rally off Tuesday's 160.11 low extended to a 161.81 two-year peak before consolidating, and price now sits at 161.77 pressing back toward that high. The 161.00-161.81 band is the prior intervention trigger zone, keeping moves capped on rhetoric risk.
Resistance: 161.81, 162.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above 161.81 opens the path to the 162.00 psych level
MoF/BoJ intervention risk live across the 161.00-161.81 zone
Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could materially shift the JPY read
13:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into highs · RSI 62 · price 161.766
Higher highs and higher lows, capped near 2yr peak.
USDJPY has ground higher all week off the 160.12 low, holding above EMA20 through every pullback as the hawkish-Fed rate-differential rally and a safe-haven USD bid keep the yen pinned. Price is stalling just under the 161.81 two-year high after the NY-session push, with RSI(14) cycling in the low-60s rather than extending. The 161-161.81 band is the prior intervention trigger area, which is capping the grind.
Support: 161.50
Resistance: 161.81
What it said to watch
H1 close above 161.81 extends the run beyond the two-year peak
Loss of the EMA20 near 161.50 would break this week's higher-low sequence
Intervention rhetoric/action in the 161+ zone could trigger a sharp unwind
Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could shift the yen read
12:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into resistance · RSI 63 · price 161.771
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday.
USDJPY has climbed steadily from Monday's ~160.32 open, with the dominant legs printed during NY sessions on the hawkish Warsh-led Fed and renewed safe-haven dollar demand. Price holds above EMA20/EMA50 and is grinding back toward last week's 161.81 two-year peak, with RSI(14) elevated near 63 but not yet extended. The 161.00-161.81 band is the prior intervention zone and caps the immediate upside.
Support: 161.30, 161.00
Resistance: 161.81, 162.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 161.81 opens the path through the 2-yr high toward 162.00 psych
Loss of 161.30 prior range would break the week's higher-low sequence
MoF/BoJ intervention rhetoric while above 161.00 could trigger a sharp unwind
USDJPY has ground higher since last week's surge through 160.90, with this week's NY-session grind lifting price back toward the ~161.81 two-year peak on a hawkish Fed / wide US-JP yield gap. RSI(14) holds in the mid-60s and price sits above EMA(20) and EMA(50), with pullbacks shallow and finding the rising EMA(20). The 161.81 high has capped the move so far and remains the area to watch.
Support: 161.30, 161.00
Resistance: 161.81
What it said to watch
H1 close above 161.81 two-year high opens further upside
Loss of 161.30 prior high would break the higher-low sequence
161.00 intervention zone — area to watch for MoF/BoJ rhetoric
Waller speech and Tokyo CPI this week could shift the read
11:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 66 · price 161.74
Higher highs into 2yr high.
USDJPY has ground steadily higher through the week, with this week's open near 161.22 holding and price stair-stepping into the 161.74 area as USD safe-haven bids and the wide US-Japan yield gap keep the yen pinned near two-year lows. Pullbacks have been shallow and supported above EMA20, with RSI(14) holding the mid-60s. The 161.81 two-year high — inside the prior MoF intervention zone — caps the advance just overhead.
Support: 161.22
Resistance: 161.81, 162.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 161.81 (2yr high) opens the path toward the 162.00 round number and the 162-163 intervention zone
Loss of the 161.22 week open would mark the first lower low of the week
MoF/BoJ intervention risk is elevated in this zone — a verbal escalation could trigger a sharp reversal
Tokyo CPI Jun-25 23:30 UTC could shift the JPY read
11:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 69 · price 161.74
Higher highs into two-year highs.
USDJPY has climbed steadily since Monday's open near 160.36, holding above EMA(20) on every pullback and printing fresh highs into the NY session with RSI(14) elevated near overbought. The advance is rate-differential driven after last week's hawkish Fed hold and renewed safe-haven USD bids, with price pressing the 161.81 two-year high. Pullbacks this week have been shallow and bought near the rising trendline.
Support: 160.36
Resistance: 161.81
What it said to watch
H1 close above 161.81 opens the 162-163 intervention zone
MoF/BoJ intervention risk elevated in the 161-163 zone — sharp short-covering spike possible
Tokyo CPI Jun 25 23:30 UTC could shift the read on a hot print
10:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 68 · price 161.74
Higher highs into 2-year peak.
USDJPY has ground steadily higher through this week's NY hours, riding the wide US-Japan yield gap after the hawkish Fed hold, and now sits within a few pips of last Thursday's 161.81 two-year peak. Price holds above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) elevated near 68 but not yet stretched, pullbacks staying shallow above the 161.30 area. The 162.00 zone overhead is the flagged MoF/BoJ intervention trigger.
Support: 161.30
Resistance: 161.81, 162.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above 161.81 opens the path toward 162.00
162.00 zone — area to watch as intervention risk rises
Failure to hold 161.30 breaks the week's higher-low sequence
USDJPY has ground higher all of this week's session, holding above EMA(20) on every pullback with RSI(14) cycling in the 55-68 band — a clean rising channel off Monday's 161.22 open. The yield-gap bid persists as JPY sits pinned near two-year lows; price is now closing in on last Thursday's 161.81 peak. The 161.81-162.00 zone is the area to monitor, with 162.00 flagged repeatedly as an intervention trigger.
Support: 161.50, 161.221
Resistance: 161.81, 162.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above 161.81 opens the path toward the 162.00 psych level
162.00 intervention zone — area to watch for sharp rejection on any MoF/BoJ action
Failure to hold the 161.50 round level breaks the week's rising channel
Fed's Waller 13:00 UTC could shift the USD read intraday
09:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 63 · price 161.769
Series of higher highs and higher lows into two-year highs.
USDJPY has trended steadily higher since Monday's open, pressing 161.77 as USD picks up fresh haven bids on the collapse of US-Iran talks and the hawkish-Fed rate-differential story. Pullbacks have held the rising H1 trendline and EMA(20), with RSI(14) cycling in the 55-65 zone rather than overbought. Price now sits just below the week high at 161.81, with the 161.95/162.00 2024-peak zone overhead — a known intervention area.
Support: 161.50, 161.01
Resistance: 161.81, 161.95
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 161.95 opens the path to the 162.00 peak — intervention tail risk rises with each tick higher
Tokyo CPI Jun 25 could materially shift this read
Loss of 161.50 then 161.01 would break the week's higher-low sequence
USDJPY has trended steadily higher since Monday's open near 160.34, with the dominant leg driven through Thursday's NY session as fresh USD haven bids built on stalled US-Iran talks and the hawkish-Fed read. Price is now pressing the week high at 161.81 and sits just below the 161.95 2024 peak, holding well above EMA(20) with RSI(14) cycling in the 60s on each pullback. The 161.95/162.00 zone is the loaded intervention area, with Tokyo rhetoric escalating.
Support: 161.10
Resistance: 161.81, 161.95
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 161.95 opens the 162.00 2024 peak and raises BoJ intervention risk
Loss of 161.10 swing low would break the run of higher lows
Fed's Waller at 13:00 UTC could shift the rate-differential read
08:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding near 2yr high · RSI 63 · price 161.715
Higher highs, higher lows since Monday.
USDJPY has trended up all week from Monday's 160.32 open, with a hawkish FOMC under Warsh plus Iran-driven USD haven bids pushing the pair to a 161.81 week high. Price pulled back to 161.10 mid-week, found demand, and has rebuilt through the Asia session back toward that high. RSI(14) sits in the low-60s and price holds above both EMA20 and EMA50, with the 161.81/161.95 zone — the 2yr high — the obvious cap.
Support: 161.10, 160.32
Resistance: 161.81, 161.95
What it said to watch
Sustained move above 161.81 opens the path to the 161.95 2yr high and the 162 intervention zone
Failure to hold 161.10 breaks the week's higher-low structure
Fed's Waller (13:00 UTC) and Tue PMIs could materially shift this read; MoF/BoJ intervention chatter near 162 is the dominant wildcard
USDJPY has trended higher all week off the weekly open near 160.32, accelerating into the 161.81 week high on the hawkish-Fed yield gap before stalling. Price is consolidating just under that high with RSI(14) elevated near 63 and holding above EMA20/EMA50; the 161.95 two-year high and 162.00 intervention zone cap the upside. A grind of higher lows since yesterday's session keeps the structure intact.
Support: 161.10, 160.32
Resistance: 161.81, 161.95, 162.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above 161.95 opens the 162.00 intervention zone — area to watch for rejection or break
Failure to hold the 161.10 pullback low breaks this week's rising-low sequence
MoF/BoJ intervention headlines near 162 could snap the read sharply
Higher highs and higher lows, consolidating near the top.
USDJPY has ground to fresh multi-year highs near 161.95 this week, driven by the post-Fed hawkish repricing and a wide US-JP yield gap; the impulse off 160.12 stalled into the 161.81 swing high. Price has held above its EMA20 throughout, now consolidating 161.5–161.7 into NY hours with RSI elevated but not extreme. The 161.95 week high and the 162 zone are the watched intervention trip-wire.
Support: 161.10
Resistance: 161.81, 161.95
What it said to watch
A close above 161.95 week high opens the 162 intervention zone — area to monitor for rejection or sweep
Failure to hold 161.10 prior low would mark the first lower-low of the week
Fed's Waller speech 13:00 GMT today could shift the USD read
MoF/BoJ intervention headlines near 162 a two-way risk in thin liquidity
07:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher · RSI 65 · price 161.692
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday's open.
USD/JPY has trended higher since Monday's open, with the hawkish Fed and wide yield gap driving the pair toward 40-year JPY lows; the week's impulse off 160.20 peaked at 161.81 before a pullback to 161.01 found demand. Price has since reclaimed EMA(20) and is pressing the upper end of the week's range with RSI(14) cycling in the 55–65 band. The 161.95 intervention zone caps the immediate upside.
Support: 161.13, 161.01
Resistance: 161.81, 161.95
What it said to watch
H1 close above 161.81 opens the path to the 161.95 intervention zone
Failure to hold 161.13 signals a lower high and shift back toward 161.01
Intervention headlines near 162 a two-way risk in thin liquidity
USD/JPY gapped higher into Monday's Asia session and has climbed steadily back toward the 161.81 week high, holding well above EMA20 with RSI cycling in the upper half. The grind follows last week's hawkish-Fed dollar surge against a yen pinned near multi-decade lows; price broke clear of the 161.30 consolidation that capped Friday. Upside is now approaching the 161.81/161.95 zone that doubles as the intervention trip-wire.
Support: 161.30
Resistance: 161.81, 161.95
What it said to watch
Clean H1 close above 161.81 opens the 162-163 zone
161.95 2024 high — area to watch for rejection or intervention
Failure to hold 161.30 consolidation breaks the higher-high sequence
Fed's Waller 13:00 UTC could shift the dollar leg of this read
06:01 UTC
Uptrend, near week high · RSI 64 · price 161.698
Higher highs and higher lows, consolidating below week high.
Uptrend intact since Monday's open, with the dominant leg arriving in the NY session as the pair drove from the 160.10 low to a 161.81 week high on the post-FOMC hawkish dollar and yield-gap yen weakness. Price pulled back to consolidate around 161.00–161.35 before grinding back up; it now sits above EMA(20) retesting the week high. The 161.80/161.95 zone aligns with the 2024 high flagged as an intervention trip-wire.
Support: 161.01, 161.35
Resistance: 161.81, 161.95
What it said to watch
Clean H1 close above 161.81 week high opens the 162–163 area
Failure to hold the 161.01 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence
Fed's Waller (13:00 UTC) could reinforce the dollar bid
Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC is the key yen risk into the week
05:01 UTC
Uptrend, testing range top · RSI 64 · price 161.674
Higher highs into 2yr high, shallow pullbacks held.
USD/JPY has trended higher since mid-week, tagging the 161.81 two-year high before easing back into the 161.00 round number as post-FOMC dollar momentum cooled and intervention rhetoric capped upside. Price has since recovered above EMA20 and EMA50 and is pressing back toward that high, with RSI(14) holding the mid-60s. The 161.81/161.95 zone is the key area to watch given heightened Japan intervention risk.
Support: 161.01
Resistance: 161.81, 161.95
What it said to watch
Clean H1 close above 161.81 opens the path toward 162-163
Failure to hold 161.00 marks a lower high and stalls the recovery
Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could materially shift the JPY read
05:01 UTC
Uptrend, pressing weekly high · RSI 64 · price 161.675
Higher highs into prior peak, consolidating just below.
USDJPY has trended higher since Monday's 160.29 weekly open, with the dominant leg landing in the NY session midweek as post-FOMC dollar strength and the wide US-Japan yield gap drove a push to the 161.81 two-year high. Price then consolidated above the 161.01 swing low and has reclaimed ground above EMA20, now grinding back toward the highs. The 161.80/161.95 zone is the key cap, where Japan intervention rhetoric is heating up.
Support: 161.01, 160.29
Resistance: 161.81, 161.95
What it said to watch
Clean H1 close above 161.81 opens the 162-163 area
Loss of 161.01 swing low breaks the rising structure
Intervention risk near 161.95 could trigger a sharp reversal
Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could shift the JPY read
04:01 UTC
Uptrend, near week highs · RSI 62 · price 161.586
Higher highs and higher lows since Monday.
USD/JPY has trended higher all week off Monday's 160.12 low, with the hawkish-Fed yield gap keeping the yen offered even after the BoJ's hike to 1%. Price reclaimed the 161 handle into the NY session and now sits just under the 161.81 week high, holding above a rising EMA(20). The 161.95/162.00 area overhead is the 2024 peak and intervention-trigger zone, where thin liquidity amplifies two-way risk.
Support: 161.10
Resistance: 161.81, 161.95
What it said to watch
H1 close above 161.81 opens the path to the 161.95/162.00 intervention zone
Intervention headlines are the dominant near-term risk in thin liquidity
Failure to hold 161.10 breaks the week's higher-low sequence
04:01 UTC
Uptrend, near multi-decade highs · RSI 62 · price 161.586
Higher highs and higher lows, consolidating below week high.
USDJPY has trended higher all week, pushing to 161.807 as the hawkish Fed yield gap kept JPY offered despite the BoJ hike. Price pulled back to 161.01 and has since rebuilt above EMA20 into the NY session, RSI(14) cycling in the 55-65 zone on each dip. The pair is grinding back toward the week high, just shy of the 161.95/162.00 intervention zone.
Support: 161.01
Resistance: 161.807, 161.95, 162.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above 161.807 opens the path to the 161.95/162.00 intervention zone
Loss of 161.01 swing low would mark the first lower-low this week
MoF/intervention headlines are the dominant near-term risk into thin liquidity
03:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum steady · RSI 61 · price 161.535
Higher highs/lows, capped below week high.
USDJPY has ground higher all week off Monday's 160.15 low, breaking through 161 into the NY session midweek and topping at 161.807 on the hawkish-Fed/wide-yield-gap theme. Price holds above EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI cycling in the high-50s/low-60s on pullbacks; demand has been stepping in near 161.00 and EMA20. The 161.80 week high and the 161.95 2024 peak cap the advance, with verbal intervention warnings flagged near these levels.
Support: 161.00
Resistance: 161.80, 161.95
What it said to watch
A close above 161.95 (2024 high) raises MoF intervention odds in thin liquidity
Failure to hold 161.00 breaks the week's higher-low structure
Waller speech 13:00 UTC and live intervention headlines could shift this read
USD/JPY broke higher last week on the hawkish Fed dot-plot and wide US-Japan yield gap, printing a 2024-high near 161.81 before settling into a 161.00-161.60 consolidation. Price holds above EMA20 with RSI(14) cycling in the upper-50s/low-60s, and is pressing back up toward the week high after defending higher lows. The 161.95 July-2024 ceiling continues to cap the grind.
Support: 161.00
Resistance: 161.81, 161.95
What it said to watch
H1 close above 161.95 opens the 162-163 zone and raises MoF intervention risk
Failure to hold 161.00 psych breaks the week's higher-low structure
Intervention headline risk is live near these highs and could shift the read sharply
02:01 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating near highs · RSI 63 · price 161.548
Higher highs, tight range under week high.
USDJPY ground higher all week off Monday's 160.05 open, accelerating into Thursday's NY session to a 161.81 week high before stalling. Price has since held a tight 161.10–161.57 consolidation near the highs and is back probing the upper edge with RSI in the low-60s. The Fed's hawkish dot-plot repricing keeps the carry-driven grind intact, while intervention chatter near the 161.95 2024 ceiling has capped each push.
Support: 161.10, 160.05
Resistance: 161.57, 161.81, 161.95
What it said to watch
H1 close above 161.81 opens the 161.95 2024 ceiling
Loss of 161.10 breaks the week's higher-low structure
MoF intervention headline risk live near multi-decade highs
02:01 UTC
Uptrend, grinding into highs · RSI 61 · price 161.549
Higher highs, consolidating below week high.
USD/JPY has ground higher since Monday's open, driven by the hawkish Fed dot-plot repricing keeping the yen offered. The 161.81 spike high stalled just shy of the 161.95 July-2024 ceiling and price has since consolidated the 161.0–161.4 zone, now pressing back toward the highs in thin holiday tape. Pullbacks have held above the rising support line off the Monday lows.
Support: 161.01
Resistance: 161.81, 161.95
What it said to watch
Push through 161.95 2024 high raises intervention risk near multi-decade highs
Loss of 161.01 swing low breaks the rising support off Monday's lows
Waller (Mon) and Tue PMIs could materially shift the USD leg of this read
01:01 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating near highs · RSI 59 · price 161.477
Higher highs since Monday, pullback holding above prior breakout.
USDJPY ground higher all week on the post-Fed hawkish-hold dollar surge and the wide US-Japan yield gap, peaking near 161.81 into Thursday's NY session. Price pulled back into a 161.20–161.45 range and the new week is opening firm, pressing back toward the highs while holding above EMA20. RSI cycling near 59 keeps the structure constructive without stretching into extremes.
Support: 161.00
Resistance: 161.81, 162.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above 161.81 week high opens the path toward the 162.00 intervention zone
Failure to hold 161.00 round number breaks the rising-lows structure
Fed's Waller (Mon 13:00 UTC) and Tue PMIs could shift the USD read
USDJPY ran steadily higher since Monday's open, the post-Fed hawkish-hold dollar surge and a wide US-Japan yield gap pinning the yen near 40-year lows. Price spiked to a 161.81 week high before easing into a 161.10–161.50 consolidation, holding above EMA(20) with RSI(14) cycling mid-range. Verbal intervention from Japan's MoF has so far capped, but not reversed, the move.
Support: 161.10
Resistance: 161.81, 162.00
What it said to watch
Push toward 162.00 interv zone raises MoF intervention odds and squeeze risk
H1 close below 161.10 swing low breaks the consolidation and signals deeper pullback
Tokyo CPI Thu and Waller Mon / US PMIs Tue could materially shift the rate-differential read
USDJPY ran from Monday's 160.10 base to a 161.81 multi-decade high midweek as the hawkish Fed hold widened US-Japan yield divergence and pinned the yen. Since that spike the pair has coiled 161.00–161.51 under the high, holding above EMA20 with RSI(14) cycling neutral. Demand has stepped in twice around 161.00 while supply caps each push toward 161.50.
Support: 161.00, 160.985
Resistance: 161.51, 161.81, 162.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above 161.81 opens the path to the 162.00 intervention zone
Loss of 161.00 round number signals a deeper pullback toward 160.99 swing low
Tokyo CPI Thu plus live MoF intervention risk near 162 could force a sharp two-way move
USD/JPY ground higher all week off Monday's 160.10 base after the hawkish Fed hold lifted US yields, peaking at the 161.81 week high in the NY session before easing into a tight consolidation in the mid-161s. Price holds above EMA20 with pullbacks shallow, but the advance has stalled below the 161.95 prior high with intervention overhang capping the 162.00 peak. RSI(14) has cooled from overbought into the high-50s as the move flattens.
Support: 161.00, 160.92
Resistance: 161.81, 161.95, 162.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above 161.95/162.00 opens the path toward the 1986/2024 peak zone
MoF/BoJ intervention risk escalates near 162.00 — a sharp reversal trigger
Loss of the 161.00 round number and 160.92 swing low breaks the rising structure
Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read