USD/JPY AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Monday, 22 June 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/JPY 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:02 UTC
Uptrend, near 2-year highs · RSI 62 · price 161.584
Higher highs and higher lows intact.
Clean H4 uptrend with higher highs and higher lows since the early-month base near 158.85, the move extended by a firm USD post-hawkish Fed and a JPY pinned by wide rate differentials. Price is pressing the 161.75 area flagged as a Japan verbal-intervention zone; the latest bar wicked to 161.92 before a sharp rejection back to 161.55. ATR has expanded into the highs, consistent with a trend in extension rather than compression.
Support: 161.07
Resistance: 161.75, 161.92
What it said to watch
Close above 161.92 swing high opens path to fresh multi-year highs
161.75 interv. zone — area to watch for rejection or break, MoF action risk
Failure to hold 161.07 swing low breaks the higher-low structure
Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could shift the JPY read
21:02 UTC
Uptrend, near two-year highs · RSI 60 · price 161.584
Higher highs and higher lows, testing intervention zone.
USDJPY remains in a clean H4 uptrend, grinding from 158.80 toward two-year highs as the hawkish Fed hold and crowded JPY carry keep the pair bid. The latest bar swept down to 161.07 before recovering to 161.58, leaving the 161.75 intervention zone capping price just overhead. ATR is expanding, consistent with a trend still extending rather than compressing.
Support: 161.07, 160.55
Resistance: 161.75, 161.93
What it said to watch
H4 close above 161.75 intervention zone opens path to the 161.93 2yr high
Failure to hold 161.07 swing low would signal a deeper pullback toward 160.55
Tokyo CPI Thu and US flash PMIs Tue could materially shift this read
Verbal-to-actual MoF intervention near 161.75 risks a sharp snapback
USDJPY is in a clean uptrend, posting higher highs and higher lows as it presses the highest levels since July 2024, fuelled by hawkish Fed repricing and a persistently weak yen on carry demand. The latest bar surged to 161.93 but closed back at 161.487, leaving a long upper wick — rejection at the swing high. ATR(14) has expanded sharply on this push, with both EMA20 and EMA50 below price.
Support: 161.07, 160.00
Resistance: 161.93
What it said to watch
Sustained close above 161.93 swing high opens path toward extension
Failure to hold 161.07 swing low would mark the first lower high in the sequence
Tokyo CPI Thu and US Core PCE Fri could materially shift this read
Intervention risk rising above 160.00 — area to monitor for sharp reversal
Higher highs and higher lows since early-month low.
USDJPY remains in a clean uptrend, grinding from the sub-159 base to fresh two-year highs as USD stays firm on the hawkish FOMC repricing and JPY languishes near multi-week lows on carry demand. The latest bar tagged 161.925 before fading back to 161.49, leaving a rejection wick at the highs. ATR is expanding alongside the move, consistent with trend extension rather than compression.
Support: 161.00
Resistance: 161.93, 162.00
What it said to watch
Close above 161.93 opens the path toward the 162.00 psych level
Failure to hold 161.00 swing low would mark the first lower-low
Uptrend, extending into highs · RSI 68 · price 161.773
Higher highs, higher lows since early-month base.
USD/JPY is grinding into the 161.81 two-year peak as the hawkish-Fed rate-differential story and a pinned yen keep the pair bid; structure remains a clean sequence of higher highs and higher lows with price holding above both H4 EMAs. The latest push tagged 161.78 after breaking the 161.45 shelf, leaving the prior 161.81 high as the immediate cap. Note the 161.00-161.81 band is the prior MoF intervention zone, a source of two-way risk near these levels.
Support: 161.00
Resistance: 161.81, 162.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 161.81 opens the path to the 162.00 round number
Failure to hold 161.00 would mark a lower-low and break the rising structure
Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC and any MoF/BoJ intervention rhetoric could materially shift this read
13:01 UTC
Uptrend, extending · RSI 71 · price 161.773
Higher highs / higher lows, fresh 2-yr highs.
Uptrend intact with higher highs and higher lows since mid-window; price is pressing the ~161.81 two-year peak after a clean breakout above 161.00. The leg up is consistent with the hawkish-Fed rate-differential bid and yen weakness near 2-year lows. ATR is expanding as the trend extends, but price sits inside the 161.00-161.81 band that previously drew official intervention.
Support: 161.00
Resistance: 161.81, 162.00
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close above 161.81 opens the path toward the 162.00 psych level
161.00-161.81 is the prior intervention zone — sharp reversal risk on MoF/BoJ action
Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could shift the JPY read
09:01 UTC
Uptrend, extending · RSI 64 · price 161.715
Higher highs and higher lows since early-month.
Clean higher-high, higher-low structure intact, with USD/JPY grinding back toward the 161.81 swing high and the loaded 161.95/162.00 intervention zone after the wide US-Japan yield gap and hawkish Fed dot-plot kept the bid alive. ATR(14) is elevated, consistent with an extending trend rather than compression. The 161.10 pullback low marks the last defended higher-low.
Support: 161.10
Resistance: 161.81, 161.95
What it said to watch
H4 close above 161.95 enters the 162.00 2024-peak zone where official intervention has previously triggered
Close below 161.10 breaks the most recent higher-low structure
Tokyo CPI (Jun 25) and any escalation in Japanese official rhetoric are tail risks to this read
09:01 UTC
Uptrend, extended into resistance · RSI 68 · price 161.715
Higher highs and higher lows since mid-window.
Clean uptrend on H4 with higher highs and higher lows intact since the early-month base near 159.40, driven by the wide US-Japan yield gap after the hawkish FOMC hold and BoJ's modest 1% hike. Price has cleared the 161.10 swing high on its latest impulse leg and is pressing into the 161.95 2024 peak. ATR is expanding as the move extends, but the pair sits directly under the 161.95/162.00 zone that previously triggered official intervention.
Support: 161.10
Resistance: 161.95, 162.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 161.95 opens the path to the 162.00 psych level
Failure to hold 161.10 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence
Intervention above 161.95 and Tokyo CPI Jun 25 are unscheduled tail risks that could sharply shift this read
05:01 UTC
Uptrend, extended · RSI 63 · price 161.586
Higher highs and higher lows, pressing 2yr high.
Uptrend intact with a clean breakout above the 160.50 base, carrying USDJPY to a two-year high at 161.81 as the Fed's hawkish dot-plot shift widened US-Japan yield differentials. ATR(14) has expanded through the impulse and price holds above both EMAs, but the 161.81/161.95 zone is also the intervention trip-wire that capped the prior leg. Demand has stepped in repeatedly above 161.10 on each pullback.
Support: 161.10, 160.50
Resistance: 161.81, 161.95
What it said to watch
Clean H4 close above 161.81 opens the 162-163 path
Intervention risk near 161.80/161.95 — area to watch for sharp rejection
Failure to hold 161.10 exposes the 160.50 breakout base
Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could shift the read materially
Higher highs and higher lows; consolidating below 161.81.
Clean H4 uptrend intact since the 158.90 base; higher-low structure unbroken with price grinding into the 2024 high at 161.81 as JPY stays pinned on the widening US-Japan yield gap. The spike to 161.807 was rejected and price has since consolidated in the low-161s, holding above EMA20/EMA50. ATR(14) near 33 pips marks a normal trend regime rather than compression.
Support: 161.00, 160.20
Resistance: 161.81
What it said to watch
Sustained close above 161.81 opens the path toward the 162-163 zone
161.80-162.00 is a known intervention trip-wire — verbal or actual MoF action could spark a sharp snap-back
Failure to hold 161.00 would put the 160.20 swing low back in focus
Tokyo CPI Thu 23:30 UTC could shift the BoJ-tightening read
01:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum firm · RSI 64 · price 161.439
Higher highs, higher lows.
Clean higher-high, higher-low structure since early month, accelerated after the hawkish Fed dot-plot repricing widened the rate differential and broke price above the 160.50 shelf. The impulse to 161.81 sets up the 162.00 zone as the next overhead barrier — the 2024 peak proximity and noted intervention-trigger area. ATR(14) has expanded into the move, consistent with a trend extending rather than compressing.
Support: 160.47
Resistance: 161.81, 162.00
What it said to watch
Sustained press into 162.00 raises MoF intervention risk — area to monitor for a sharp rejection
H4 close back below 160.47 breaks the higher-low sequence
Tokyo CPI Thu and US PMIs Tue could materially shift this read
01:01 UTC
Uptrend, extended · RSI 65 · price 161.439
Higher highs and higher lows, consolidating below swing high.
USDJPY remains in a clean H4 uptrend, with the hawkish Fed dot-plot repricing driving the pair through 161 and into a fresh high at 161.81. Price is now consolidating just beneath that swing high while holding above EMA20 and EMA50; ATR(14) has expanded on the impulse, signalling trend extension rather than compression. The 162.00 region — the 2024 peak — is the next area to monitor and coincides with cited intervention risk.
Support: 161.00, 160.65
Resistance: 161.81, 162.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 161.81 opens the path toward the 162.00 intervention zone
Loss of 161.00 then 160.65 would break the higher-low sequence
Tokyo CPI (Thu) and intervention headlines could sharply shift this read in thin liquidity