Lower highs and lower lows; 60.30-62.07 base broken to the downside.
Silver has printed lower highs at 68.31, 67.53 and 65.08 across the window. Monday's collapse knocked price into a week-long base between the 60.30 range floor and the 62.07 range high, and the latest bar closed at 59.84, below that base and the 60.00 psych handle, despite the payroll and wage miss that cut Fed hike pricing. ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 980 pips, with price below both EMAs and the EMA20 still under the EMA50.
Support: 59.676, 59.00
Resistance: 60.00, 60.30, 62.07
What it said to watch
An H4 close back above the 60.30 range floor would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 59.676 window low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 59.00 round number
A reclaim of the 62.07 range high, the lower highs trendline and the 38.2% fib near 62.68 would break the downtrend structure
ISM Services Mon Oct 5 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
13:05 UTC
Downtrend, basing in a tight range · RSI 46 · price 60.961
Lower highs from 68.31; post-breakdown range 59.95–61.71.
A lower-high sequence from the 68.31 swing high (67.53, then 65.08) ended in Monday's breakdown through the sept lows near 62.30 on surging yields and a firm USD. Price has since compressed in a 59.95–61.71 range, with the range top capping three tests just under the fib 38.2 at 61.91. ATR(14) has eased from the Monday expansion and EMA20 has flattened at price, while EMA50 sits overhead near 62.0. Today's 29K NFP miss landed after the last closed bar, so the dovish repricing is not yet reflected in this structure.
Support: 60.30, 59.946
Resistance: 61.712, 61.906, 62.30
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 61.71 range top and fib 38.2 at 61.91 would mark the first higher high since the breakdown, opening the sept lows near 62.30
Failure to hold the range low at 60.30 and the 59.95 swing low extends the downtrend's lower-low sequence
NFP reaction (29K vs 90K, wages 0.1% m/m) on the next closed bars could materially shift this read
ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) and FOMC Minutes Wed are the next risks to the range
EMA20 reclaiming EMA50 near 62.0 would flip the cross state that has held since the breakdown
09:07 UTC
Downtrend, basing after capitulation leg · RSI 49 · price 61.228
Lower highs from 68.31; tight 59.95–61.71 range below broken neckline.
Silver has printed lower highs at 68.31, 67.53 and 65.08 over three weeks. Monday's yield- and dollar-driven slide broke the 62.30 neckline of the mid-September lows and ran to a 59.95 swing low. Since then price has compressed in a 59.95–61.71 range with a marginal higher low at 60.19, recovering EMA20 but still capped below EMA50 near the neckline. Softer PCE produced only a modest short-covering bounce that has so far stalled beneath the range high and the 38.2% fib at 61.91.
Support: 60.19, 59.95
Resistance: 61.71, 62.30, 63.06
What it said to watch
US NFP and AHE today 12:30 GMT could break the 59.95–61.71 range either way
H4 close above the 61.71 range high exposes the 61.91 fib and the 62.30 neckline retest
Rejection at the 62.30 neckline would keep the lower-high sequence intact, with the 63.06 prior low as the next cap above
Loss of the 60.19 higher low and a close below the 59.95 swing low resumes the downtrend
A 10Y yield move back above 5.34% would challenge the basing read
05:06 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating after breakdown · RSI 49 · price 61.185
Lower highs from 67.53; pennant compressing above 60.
Lower highs at 67.53 and 65.08 gave way to Monday's breakdown through the sept lows near 62.30. Since then price has compressed into a pennant between the 61.71 range high and the 59.95 range low, with a higher low at 60.19. Soft PCE failed to lift silver as 5.3% 10y yields and oil-driven inflation fears kept it capped. Price is now pressing the pennant top and the 23.6% fib near 61.16, with EMA20 flattening at price, EMA50 well overhead, RSI neutral near 49 and ATR(14) holding around 840 pips.
Support: 60.19, 59.95
Resistance: 61.71, 62.30
What it said to watch
US September NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% m/m) is the main catalyst to resolve the pennant
H4 close below the 59.95 range low and the $60.00 psych level resolves the pennant lower and extends the lower-low sequence
H4 close above the 61.71 range high invalidates the pennant read and brings the 38.2% fib at 61.91 and the sept lows at 62.30 into view
Loss of the 60.19 higher low breaks the pennant base
10y UST near 5.3% and oil/Hormuz headlines remain the dominant driver of the read
Lower highs since the 67.53 swing high. Monday's range break through the broken lows near 62.30 came as oil, yields and the dollar firmed, sending silver to a 59.95 swing low. Since then price has held a narrow consolidation between the range floor near 60.30 and the range top at 61.80, capped by a descending trendline near 61.30. Price sits just above EMA20 but well below EMA50, and ATR(14) has eased from Monday's expansion, so the pause is compressing.
Support: 60.30, 59.95
Resistance: 61.30, 61.80, 62.30
What it said to watch
US NFP and wages Fri 12:30 UTC are the main risk to the $60 base; hot wages could rebuild hike odds
H4 close above the trendline and the 61.80 range top would mark the first break of the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the range floor at 60.30 and the 59.95 swing low would extend the downtrend to fresh lows
Reclaim of the broken lows at 62.30, near the 38.2% fib, would undercut the breakdown read