Lower highs from 67.53; H&S neckline broken, base forming 59.95-61.71.
Silver broke the ~62.30 head and shoulders neckline on Monday's ~5% slide. Rising yields and oil, plus a firmer USD, drove the move, and the softer PCE print brought no relief. Since then price has compressed into a 59.95-61.71 range, with the range low just under the 60.29 aug low and the $60 handle. A falling lower-high line from 61.71 and the ema20 near 61.18 are capping rallies, and the range high sits at the 23.6% retracement of the 67.53-59.95 leg. ATR(14) near 790 pips has eased from Monday's expansion, a compression read ahead of payrolls, with EMA20 still below EMA50.
Support: 60.29, 59.95
Resistance: 61.18, 61.71, 62.30
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 59.95 range low and the $60 handle extends the head and shoulders breakdown beyond the aug low
H4 close above the lower-high line and the 61.71 range high (23.6% fib) opens a retest of the 62.30 neckline
Repeated H4 closes back above the ema20 near 61.18 would signal the range is turning into a base
US NFP Fri 2 Oct 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read
17:05 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a tight base · RSI 41 · price 60.607
Silver has printed lower highs at 68.31, 67.53 and 65.08 over three weeks. Monday's range break took out the 62.30 neckline zone that had held three times mid-month, with record-area yields and a firm USD overriding the soft core PCE. Since then price has moved sideways in a roughly 60-pip-per-hour-wide base between the 59.95 swing low and the 61.71 range high. The prior low at 60.29 and the 60.00 psych area sit just under price. EMA20 is flattening overhead and EMA50 is well above. ATR(14) near 790 pips shows the swings stay wide even as price compresses.
Support: 60.289, 59.946
Resistance: 61.712, 62.303, 65.078
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 59.95 swing low and 60.00 psych extends the lower-low sequence; the 60.29 prior low is the first line inside the base
H4 close above the 61.71 range high opens a retest of the 62.30 neckline, near the 38.2% retrace (62.84) of the 67.53 drop
Only a recovery through the 65.08 lower high breaks the descending swing structure
US NFP Fri 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K) and Fed speakers today could materially shift this read via yields and the USD
Lower highs since 67.53; post-H&S breakdown consolidation 59.95–61.75.
Silver completed a head and shoulders top, with the head at 68.31 and the right shoulder at 67.53, breaking the neckline near 62.30 and extending the 67.53–59.95 impulse to a fresh swing low. Lower highs remain intact from 67.53 through 65.08. Price is now compressing in a 59.95–61.75 consolidation just under the ema20, and Wednesday's soft PCE failed to lift it as 5.3% 10y yields and a firm USD dominated.
Support: 60.29, 59.95
Resistance: 61.75, 62.30
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 61.75 range high, which coincides with the impulse fib 23.6%, breaks the lower-highs sequence and opens a neckline retest at 62.30
Failure to hold the 60.29 aug low and 59.95 swing low extends the head and shoulders breakdown below 60.00
Sustained H4 closes back above the ema20 would mark the consolidation turning into a base rather than a pause
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 14:00 GMT, alongside Waller, could materially shift this read; Friday's NFP follows
09:07 UTC
Downtrend, basing in a tight range · RSI 43 · price 60.646
Lower highs from 67.53; breakdown below the 62.30 neckline, now ranging 59.95-61.71.
Silver has printed lower highs from 67.53 through 65.08 and 61.71. The early-week break of the 62.30 neckline, the floor that held three times mid-month, accelerated the slide to a swing low at 59.95, as 10y yields hit 19-year highs. Since then price has gone sideways between the 60.29 prior low and the 61.71 range top, and the soft PCE miss produced only a brief push that stalled under that cap. Price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50 with the 20 under the 50, and ATR(14) has eased from the breakdown expansion, consistent with consolidation inside the downtrend.
Support: 60.289, 59.946
Resistance: 61.712, 62.303, 65.078
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 59.95 swing low extends the lower-low sequence after the neckline break
Break and hold above the 61.71 range top, near the 23.6% fib, would open a retest of the 62.30 neckline from below
Reclaiming 62.30 neckline and the 38.2% fib near 62.84 would neutralise the breakdown; the 65.08 lower high is the next structural cap
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 14:00 GMT, plus Fed speakers Waller and Williams, could break the 60.29 prior low or the range top
Friday NFP is the larger event risk for the range resolution
05:07 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 44 · price 61.16
Lower highs from 68.31; 62.30 floor broken, compressing 59.95-61.71.
Silver has printed lower highs from the 68.31 peak through 67.53 and 65.08. Monday's slide broke the 62.30 broken floor that held three times mid-month and set a 59.95 swing low, just under the 60.29 prior low. Price is now compressing between that base and the 61.71 lower high, pressing the ema20 near 61.32 from below. ATR(14) near 690 pips has eased off Monday's expansion, and the soft PCE miss barely lifted the metal against firm yields and a bid USD.
Support: 60.29, 59.95
Resistance: 61.32, 61.71, 62.30
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 61.71 lower high would challenge the downtrend read and expose the 62.30 broken floor and the 38.2% fib near 61.91
Failure to hold the 60.29 prior low and the 59.95 swing low extends the lower-low sequence below the $60 handle
Repeated closes back under the ema20 at 61.32 keep price inside the 59.95-61.71 consolidation
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 14:00 GMT plus Waller and Williams remarks could materially shift this read via hike odds and yields
Lower highs from 67.53, September range floor broken, tight base 60.03–61.80.
Silver held a 62.30–68.30 range through most of September. Lower highs from 67.53 then gave way to Monday's break of the range floor, as oil-driven Fed-hike bets and yields near 19-year highs weighed on the metal. Price now sits below both EMAs, with EMA20 under EMA50, and is compressing in a 60.03–61.80 base. The soft core PCE miss failed to lift it, and the base cap lines up with the 23.6% fib of the 67.53–60.03 decline. ATR(14) is easing from Monday's expansion, consistent with a pause rather than a reversal so far.
Support: 60.028, 60.00
Resistance: 61.80, 62.30, 63.059
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 60.03 swing low and 60.00 psych extends the lower-low sequence
H4 close above the 61.80 base cap and the lower-highs trendline opens a retest of the broken 62.30 range floor
Reclaim of the 63.06 prior low would neutralise the downtrend read
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid Thu 14:00 UTC, alongside Waller, could materially shift this read