21:08 UTC
Turning down, price below falling EMA20 and flattening EMA50 · RSI 39 · price 60.301
Lower highs since Aug 28 peak; head and shoulders neckline broken, lower low at 60.03.
The Jul 17–Aug 28 rally from 54.76 to 71.17 has rolled into a head and shoulders. Lower highs printed at 68.31 and 67.53, and Monday's ~5% slide closed through the 62.30 neckline, driven by higher Treasury yields, oil-led inflation fears and a firm USD. Price now sits below the fib 61.8% at 61.02 and an EMA(50) near 64.17 that has stopped rising, with three sessions compressing just above the 60.00 round number; RSI(14) near 39 is weak but not yet oversold.
Support: 60.00, 59.38, 56.56
Resistance: 61.02, 62.30, 64.17
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 60.00 round number exposes the aug 5 low at 59.38, then the jul-aug base near 56.56
- Fib 61.8% at 61.02 is the first area to monitor for rejection or break on any rebound
- Daily close back above the neckline at 62.30 would undercut the head and shoulders breakdown
- Recovery above the EMA(50) near 64.17 would return price to the September range and neutralise the lower-highs read
- US NFP Fri 2 Oct 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read via yields and USD