XAG/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Thursday, 1 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the XAG/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Sideways, contracting range · RSI 62 · price 61.09
Lower highs from 61.41 vs higher lows from 60.30; early Asia pressing the lower-highs line.
Thursday's trade compressed between a falling lower-highs line from the 61.41 day high and rising higher lows off the 60.30 London low. Hot ISM prices paid and 5.3% yields kept rallies capped. Early Asia has built a 60.85–61.11 range, and price is now leaning on the lower-highs line near 61.05–61.10 with RSI(14) around 62.
Support: 60.85, 60.48, 60.30
Resistance: 61.11, 61.30, 61.41
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.11 asian high clears the lower-highs line and puts the 61.30 lower highs cluster back in play, with the 61.41 day high beyond
Slip back below the 60.85 asian low returns price to mid-range; the 60.48 swing low is the higher low that keeps the contraction intact
Loss of the 60.30 london low breaks the higher-lows line and the contraction to the downside
US NFP and wages Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could resolve the contraction and expand ATR sharply
23:32 UTC
Short-term upswing inside a wide intraday range · RSI 66 · price 61.095
Higher lows since 60.475, testing range upper half.
Early in the new Asia session, silver is grinding to 61.10 off a 60.85 session low. That extends a rising-low trendline from the 60.475 swing low, set after a choppy NY session that whipsawed 60.35–61.30 around the hawkish ISM prices-paid beat. Price sits just under the 61.173 spike high, with the 61.314 swing high and 61.413 day high capping the 24h range; RSI(14) near 66 is warm, not stretched.
Support: 61.00, 60.851, 60.475
Resistance: 61.173, 61.314, 61.413
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.173 spike high puts the 61.314 swing high and 61.413 day high back in play
Loss of psych 61.00 and the rising-low trendline would return focus to the 60.851 session low
A break of the 60.475 swing low reopens the lower half of the 60.30–61.41 range
US NFP Fri 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read
23:18 UTC
Range-bound, grinding higher off NY low · RSI 61 · price 61.044
Higher lows inside a 60.30–61.41 day range.
Silver is sitting in the upper half of the day's 60.30–61.41 range in early Asia. Price has posted a run of higher lows from the 60.349 NY low through the 60.475 higher low and the 60.851 swing low after the ISM whipsaw. Late-NY highs near 61.05 are capping, with the 61.173 spike high and the 61.314 session high overhead into NFP.
Support: 60.851, 60.475, 60.349
Resistance: 61.173, 61.314, 61.413
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 60.851 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and shifts focus back to 60.475
Acceptance above the 61.173 spike high exposes the 61.314 session high and the 61.413 asia high
Loss of the 60.349 ny low would break the range floor toward the $60 handle
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read
23:04 UTC
Recovering intraday, higher lows since NY · RSI 60 · price 61.008
Higher lows off 60.35, pressing late session high.
The NY session whipsawed between the 61.314 ny high and the 60.349 ny low around the ISM release, where hot Prices Paid capped the bounce. Since then silver has printed higher lows at 60.475 and 60.851 along a rising trendline and is pressing the 61.039 session high in thin early Asia trade.
Support: 60.851, 60.475, 60.349
Resistance: 61.039, 61.314, 61.413
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.039 session high opens the 61.314 ny high and 61.413 day high
Loss of the 60.851 late low breaks the higher-low trendline and puts 60.475 back in focus
Below the 60.349 ny low, the overnight recovery structure fails
US NFP Fri 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read
22:47 UTC
Sideways, grinding higher off NY lows · RSI 57 · price 60.949
Higher lows since 60.349, capped under 61.04 range top.
The ISM Prices Paid beat (77.9) whipsawed silver from the 61.30 spike high to the 60.349 NY low. Higher lows since then at 60.475 (swing low) and 60.851 (session low) have lifted price into a tight 60.85–61.04 band under the range top. The Asia session opened quietly inside that band after the daily break, with price mid-range in yesterday's 59.95–61.41 span.
Support: 60.851, 60.475, 60.349
Resistance: 61.039, 61.314, 61.413
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.04 range top opens the 61.31 spike high and the 61.41 day high
Failure to hold the 60.85 session low brings the 60.48 swing low and the higher-low trendline back into play
A break of the 60.35 NY low undoes the higher-low sequence
US NFP Fri 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read
NY range 60.35–61.31; late-NY grind capped at 61.04, early Asia drifting below.
Silver whipsawed through NY between the 60.35 ny low and the 61.31 ny high as the hot ISM Prices Paid print offset the softer PCE read; the higher swing low at 60.475 fed a grind that stalled at the 61.04 late ny high, near the 61.8% retracement of the NY swing. Early Asia is holding the 60.85 asia low with ranges compressing, and ATR(14) sits near 160 pips.
Support: 60.851, 60.475, 60.349
Resistance: 61.039, 61.314
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 60.85 asia low re-exposes the 60.475 swing low and the 60.35 ny low
M15 close above the 61.04 late ny high opens the path back to the 61.31 ny high
Rejection near the 61.8% of the NY swing fib keeps the range read intact
US NFP Fri 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read, with the $60 handle in focus on a hot print
Compressing 60.30–61.41 day range with lower highs and rising lows.
Silver spent the session inside a 61.413–60.297 day range. Price now sits near its midpoint, with lower highs from the day high and rising lows off the 60.349 NY low and the 60.475 higher low. The hot ISM prices paid print (77.9) produced a whipsaw to the 61.298 NY high and back, and the late-NY grind has stalled at the 61.04 late ny cap into a quiet Asia open.
Support: 60.475, 60.349, 60.297
Resistance: 61.039, 61.298, 61.413
What it said to watch
Close above the 61.04 late ny cap reopens the 61.298 NY high and 61.413 day high
Loss of the rising lows line and the 60.475 higher low exposes the 60.349 NY low and 60.297 day low
NFP Fri 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) is likely to resolve the compression
22:04 UTC
Sideways, compressing after two-way day · RSI 54 · price 60.928
Lower highs from 61.41, higher lows from 60.35, a tightening pennant.
Silver whipped from the 59.95 Asia low to the 61.41 day high, then the hot ISM prices-paid print knocked it back to the 60.35 NY low before buyers stepped in. Since then each high has come in lower and each dip has held higher, most recently the 60.475 higher low. Price is now coiling near 60.93 in thin early-Asia trade, just under the 61.04 swing high.
Support: 60.475, 60.349, 59.946
Resistance: 61.039, 61.298, 61.413
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.04 swing high and the pennant top opens the 61.30 NY high and the 61.41 day high
Failure to hold the 60.475 higher low breaks the pennant and exposes the 60.35 NY low
A loss of the NY low puts the 59.95 Asia low and the $60 handle back in play
US NFP Fri 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) is the likely catalyst for a pennant break
21:47 UTC
Two-way chop, recovering late NY · RSI 58 · price 60.98
Contracting: lower highs vs higher lows.
Late NY, silver has ground back to 60.98, the 61.8% fib of the NY drop from 61.30 to 60.35 that followed the hot ISM prices-paid print. Higher lows at 60.35 and 60.48 against lower highs at 61.30, 61.17 and 61.04 leave a tightening consolidation inside the Asian range, with the 61.41 session high and 60.30 London low as the outer bounds.
Support: 60.935, 60.475, 60.297
Resistance: 61.039, 61.173, 61.413
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.04 lower high and descending trendline breaks the contraction, exposing the 61.17 swing high and the 61.41 session high
Loss of the fib 61.8 at 60.94 and the rising trendline puts the 60.48 higher low back in play, then the 60.30 London low
US NFP Fri 2 Oct 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read
Thin liquidity around the daily rollover can distort the next few bars
21:32 UTC
Sideways, contracting after NY whipsaw · RSI 58 · price 60.98
Lower highs from 61.41 vs higher lows from 60.35, coiling near 61.00.
Asia swept below 60.00 to 59.95, then ran to a 61.41 day high. London faded that move to 60.30, and the hot ISM Prices Paid print whipsawed NY between 61.30 and the 60.35 NY low. Since then, a chain of lower highs (61.30, then the 61.17 lower high) has met higher lows (the 60.47 higher low, then 60.59), and price is grinding quietly after the NY close just under the 61.04 late high, with the 60.90 micro low underneath.
Support: 60.904, 60.475, 60.349
Resistance: 61.039, 61.173, 61.413
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.04 late high and the 61.17 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the 61.41 day high
Loss of the 60.90 micro low reopens the 60.47 higher low; below that, the 60.35 NY low and the ~60.30 area
US NFP Fri 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) is likely to resolve the contraction; expect the 200-pip ATR to expand
21:18 UTC
Sideways, higher lows since NY low · RSI 58 · price 60.98
60.30–61.41 day range, compressing toward 61.00.
The Asia rally off the 59.95 sweep topped at the 61.41 asia high, then London sold back to 60.30. NY chopped between the 60.35 ny low and the 61.30 ny high around the hot ISM Prices Paid print. Late trade is grinding up from a higher low at 60.475 into the 61.04 late high on thin ranges, pinned between rising lows and falling highs from the 61.30 area.
Support: 60.91, 60.475, 60.35
Resistance: 61.04, 61.30, 61.41
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.04 late high and the falling highs line opens the 61.30 ny high, then the 61.41 asia high
Loss of the 60.91 micro low puts the 60.475 higher low and the rising lows line back in focus
A break of the 60.35 ny low resumes the London-session down-leg toward 60.30
US NFP Fri 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K) and AHE could materially shift this read
Higher lows since 16:00 UTC inside 60.35–61.30 NY range.
NY session swung 60.35–61.30 around the ISM data, with the hot prices-paid print and record-area yields capping rallies. After London close, price built a higher-low chain from the 60.48 swing low to the 60.91 higher low. It now sits at the 61.8% retrace of the London drop near 60.99, just under the 61.04 late high, as post-NY trade thins.
Support: 60.91, 60.78, 60.35
Resistance: 61.04, 61.17, 61.30
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.04 late high puts the 61.17 spike high and 61.30 NY high back in view
Failure to hold the 60.91 higher low breaks the post-London-close chain and exposes the 60.78 swing low
A loss of the 60.35 NY low would mark a range break lower
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read
20:48 UTC
Sideways, range contracting · RSI 58 · price 60.954
Higher lows vs lower highs inside NY range.
Silver whipsawed inside a 60.35–61.30 NY range after the hot ISM Prices Paid print, with a rising line through the 60.35 NY low and the 60.48 swing low, and a descending line from the 61.30 NY high capping. The late-NY grind stalled under the 61.04 micro high. RSI(14) sits near 58 in thin post-close trade.
Support: 60.475, 60.349
Resistance: 61.039, 61.298
What it said to watch
A close above the 61.04 micro high and the descending line opens a retest of the 61.30 NY high.
A break of the 60.48 swing low and the rising line exposes the 60.35 NY low.
US NFP Fri 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read.
20:32 UTC
Range-bound, compressing after a volatile NY session · RSI 58 · price 60.955
Lower highs and higher lows since 14:30 UTC, coiling below 61.04.
Silver whipsawed 60.35–61.30 in NY hours after the hot ISM Prices Paid print (77.9 vs 72.3) and has since coiled between falling highs (61.298, 61.173, 61.039) and rising lows (60.349, 60.438, 60.475). Price is grinding near 60.95 into the late-NY close, holding above both EMAs with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 60.475, 60.349, 59.946
Resistance: 61.039, 61.298, 61.413
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.039 lower high breaks the compression and opens the 61.298 NY high, then the 61.413 24h high
Failure to hold the 60.475 higher low exposes the 60.349 NY low and the 59.946 24h low
US NFP Fri 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 61.30 vs higher lows from 60.35; late-NY drift into the upper half of the day's range.
Silver sold off from the 61.41 asian high into the London open and has since chopped between the 60.30 london low and about 61.30. The hot ISM Prices Paid print drove the 14:00 GMT drop, and the 61.17 spike high was rejected at 17:30. Late NY trade has ground up to a 60.90 late ny base, leaving lower highs over higher lows near 60.98 with RSI(14) mid-range and ATR around 215 pips.
Support: 60.90, 60.475, 60.297
Resistance: 61.039, 61.173, 61.413
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.04 late ny high and the lower-highs line breaks the compression and exposes the 61.17 spike high, then the 61.41 asian high
Failure to hold the 60.90 late ny base returns focus to the 60.48 higher low and the higher-lows line
Loss of the 60.30 london low, which also sits on the ~60.30 Aug low, opens the $60.00 handle
US NFP Fri 2 Oct 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read
20:04 UTC
Sideways, range contracting · RSI 62 · price 60.965
Lower highs vs higher lows, triangle-style compression.
Silver is compressing inside the 60.30–61.41 daily range. Highs are stepping lower from the Asian peak: the 61.31 lower high, 61.30 after the hot ISM prices paid print at 14:00 UTC, then the 61.17 spike high. Lows are stepping higher from the London low at 60.30, through the 60.35 NY low to the 60.48 swing low. Late NY hours have ground back above both EMAs toward the 61.04 session high, and RSI(14) is near 62 with no extreme.
Support: 60.475, 60.349, 60.297
Resistance: 61.039, 61.173, 61.314
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.17 spike high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 61.31 lower high back in focus
Loss of the 60.48 swing low and the higher-lows line ends the compression, exposing the 60.35 NY low and the 60.30 London low
Fed speakers Bowman, Williams and Cook during this window could jolt yields and this read
US jobs report Fri 12:30 GMT (NFP f/c 90K, AHE f/c 0.3% m/m) is the likely catalyst to resolve the range
19:47 UTC
Sideways, contracting after a choppy NY session · RSI 59 · price 60.951
60.35–61.31 range with higher lows and lower highs converging.
The ISM prices-paid beat triggered a whipsaw early in NY, taking silver from 61.30 down to the 60.35 NY low. Since then lows have stepped up to 60.44 and 60.48 while highs faded to 61.17, and price is grinding into the 61.00 round number late in NY, above the ema20 near 60.77 with RSI(14) near 59.
Support: 60.77, 60.475, 60.349
Resistance: 61.00, 61.173, 61.314
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 61.17 lower high breaks the contracting structure and opens the 61.31 session high
Failure to hold the ema20 near 60.77, then the 60.48 higher low, exposes the 60.35 NY low
Fed speakers Williams and Cook (19:30 UTC) could shift this read; NFP on Fri at 12:30 UTC is the larger catalyst for the 60–61 band
19:33 UTC
Sideways, contracting after a two-way day · RSI 58 · price 60.933
Lower highs and higher lows inside 60.30–61.41 day range.
Silver is compressing inside the 60.30–61.41 day range. NY has printed lower highs at 61.30 and the 61.17 lower high along a falling trendline, against higher lows at 60.35 and the 60.48 higher low along a rising trendline. The late-NY drift has lifted price to 60.93, just under the 60.99 late high and above both EMAs, with RSI(14) neutral near 58; relief from the soft PCE miss is still being offset by 10y yields near 5.3%.
Support: 60.475, 60.297
Resistance: 60.988, 61.173, 61.413
What it said to watch
A close above the 60.99 late high and the falling trendline near 61.10 breaks the lower-high sequence, putting the 61.17 lower high and the 61.41 day high back in play.
Failure to hold the 60.48 higher low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 60.30 london low, which matches the Aug-5 low cited in the digest.
Fed's Williams and Cook (19:30 UTC) can break this compression; NFP on Fri at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) is the larger risk to the 60.30–61.41 range read.
19:17 UTC
Sideways, range contracting · RSI 58 · price 60.883
Lower highs vs higher lows, converging range.
Silver is compressing. Highs are stepping lower from the 61.413 Asian high to the 61.173 spike high, rejected at 17:00 UTC. Lows are stepping higher from the 60.297 London low to the latest 60.475 higher low. After the hot ISM prices-paid print around the 14:00 UTC NY high at 61.298, price is now drifting just under the 61.00 round number in late NY, with RSI(14) near 58 and ATR around 230 pips.
Support: 60.475, 60.297
Resistance: 61.00, 61.173, 61.413
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman (19:00 UTC), then Williams and Cook (19:30 UTC), could break the compression either way
M15 close above the 61.173 spike high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 61.413 Asian high back in view
Failure to hold the 60.475 higher low exposes the 60.297 London low
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is the next major risk to the 60.00–61.40 day range
Late NY, silver is coiling between lower highs from the 61.30 ny high, rejected after the ISM prices-paid jump at 14:00 UTC, and higher lows off the 60.35 ny low. Price sits mid-coil at 60.85, near the 38.2% of the Asia rally, with RSI(14) ~53 and price only just above both EMAs as record-high yields keep a lid on rallies.
Support: 60.475, 60.349, 60.297
Resistance: 61.173, 61.298, 61.413
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.17 lower high breaks the NY contraction, with the 61.30 ny high and 61.41 asia high above
Failure to hold the 60.475 higher low exposes the 60.35 ny low and 60.30 london low
Fed's Bowman (19:00 UTC), Williams and Cook (19:30 UTC) are speaking now and could break the coil
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) is the next major driver for the session range
18:47 UTC
Sideways after NY rejection, range contracting · RSI 53 · price 60.822
NY lower highs 61.314 → 61.173 vs higher lows 60.349 → 60.475; coiling inside 60.35–61.31.
Silver hit the 61.314 NY high, then faded to the 60.349 NY low after the hot ISM Prices Paid print at 14:00 UTC. Since then it has printed a lower high at 61.173, rejected in a single bar, and a higher low at 60.475, leaving price coiled near 60.82 on flat EMA20/50 with RSI(14) neutral. Supply has capped rallies below the 61.00 psych area as yields hold near two-decade highs.
Support: 60.475, 60.349, 60.297
Resistance: 61.00, 61.173, 61.314
What it said to watch
Fed Bowman at 19:00 UTC, then Williams and Cook at 19:30 UTC, could break the coil in either direction
M15 close above the 61.173 lower high reopens the 61.314 NY high
Failure to hold the 60.475 higher low exposes the 60.349 NY low and 60.297 london low
Fri 12:30 UTC NFP is the larger event risk for this range
18:32 UTC
Sideways, range contracting · RSI 50 · price 60.674
Lower highs vs higher lows since the 61.314 lower high.
Late NY session: silver is coiling between lower highs off the 61.413 Asia high and higher lows from the 60.349 NY low. The 17:45 UTC spike to 61.173 met rejection and fell straight back into the range, with hot ISM Prices Paid and low claims capping the bid. RSI(14) is flat near 50 and ATR(14) is around 265 pips.
Support: 60.475, 60.349, 60.297
Resistance: 61.173, 61.314, 61.413
What it said to watch
A close below the 60.475 higher low and the 60.349 NY low breaks the coil, with the 60.297 London low next
A close above the 61.173 rejection high and the 61.314 lower high invalidates the lower-highs read and exposes the 61.413 Asia high
Fed's Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) could break the range ahead of NFP on Fri at 12:30 UTC
18:17 UTC
Sideways, range contracting · RSI 44 · price 60.616
Lower highs vs higher lows inside 60.30–61.41 day range.
Silver is compressing inside the 60.30–61.41 day range. The hot ISM Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC capped the push near 61.31, and the 17:30 UTC spike high at 61.173 was rejected within the bar. Higher lows are building from the 60.349 NY low after London close, with price pinned near the 50% of the Asian rally, below both EMAs and RSI(14) ~44.
Support: 60.475, 60.349, 60.297
Resistance: 61.00, 61.173, 61.413
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 60.475 higher low and 60.349 NY low breaks the contraction; the 60.297 London low is the last intraday floor
Close above 61.00 psych and the 61.173 spike high breaks the lower-highs line, exposing the 61.413 day high
Fed Bowman 19:00 UTC and Williams/Cook 19:30 UTC could resolve the contraction; US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is the larger event risk
ATR ~270 pips: intraday swings remain wide relative to the shrinking range
18:04 UTC
Sideways, lower highs into NY · RSI 40 · price 60.629
Contracting NY range 60.35–61.30.
The hot ISM Prices Paid print knocked silver off the 61.31 London high, and NY has since compressed between the 60.35 NY low and a falling line of lower highs. The spike to 61.17 during Fed-speaker hours was rejected, leaving price below both EMAs and just above the 60.44 higher low, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 60.438, 60.349, 60.297
Resistance: 61.173, 61.314, 61.413
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.17 lower high breaks the falling line and reopens the 61.31 london high, then the 61.41 asia high
Failure to hold the 60.44 higher low and the 60.35 ny low exposes the 60.30 london low
Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) could break the compression either way
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is the next major test of the 60.00–60.30 area
The Asia rally from 59.95 topped at the 61.41 session high. London unwound it to the 60.30 london low, and NY has chopped between the 60.35 ny low and the 61.30 ny high after the hot ISM Prices Paid (77.9) hit at 14:00 GMT. Highs keep stepping lower while lows rise. The latest bounce off the 60.44 swing low was rejected at the 61.17 spike high, leaving price mid-range near the EMAs with RSI(14) flat at 50.
Support: 60.44, 60.35, 60.30
Resistance: 61.17, 61.30, 61.41
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.17 spike high and the lower-highs line near 61.25 breaks the contraction, with the 61.30 ny high and 61.41 session high next.
Failure to hold the 60.44 swing low breaks the rising-lows line and exposes the 60.35 ny low and 60.30 london low.
Fed's Bowman (19:00 GMT) and Williams/Cook (19:30 GMT) could jolt the range during late NY hours; NFP Fri 12:30 GMT is the larger risk.
60.30–61.41 day range; NY higher lows at 60.35 and 60.44 pressing a lower-highs cap near 61.30.
Silver is recovering the NY drop that followed the hot ISM Prices Paid (77.9 vs 72.3). It is lifting from a 60.44 higher low through the 60.80 prior high to 61.17 as Jefferson speaks. Price is back under the 61.30 session high, part of a lower-highs sequence from the 61.41 Asian high, inside a 60.30–61.41 day range.
Support: 60.80, 60.44, 60.35
Resistance: 61.30, 61.41
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.30 session high breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the 61.41 Asian high
Slip back below the 60.80 prior high undoes the current-bar push and keeps the range read
Loss of the 60.44 higher low reopens the 60.35 NY low
Bowman 19:00 and Williams/Cook 19:30 GMT, then NFP Fri 12:30 GMT, could materially shift this read
17:17 UTC
Sideways, contracting after Asia rally · RSI 47 · price 60.846
Lower highs from 61.41, higher lows from 60.30; price mid-range.
Asia's run from 59.95 to the 61.41 day high reversed into London. Since then price has compressed between lower highs near 61.30 and rising lows off the 60.30 london low. The post-ISM NY spike to 61.30 failed at the falling trendline and slid to the 60.35 ny low, with a higher low at 60.44 now holding and price back at 60.85, just above both EMAs.
Support: 60.438, 60.349, 60.297
Resistance: 61.05, 61.30, 61.413
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.05 swing high puts the lower highs trendline near 61.29 back in play
Failure to hold the 60.44 higher low reopens the 60.35 ny low and 60.30 london low
Break of 61.41 day high or 60.30 ends the contraction read
Fed speakers Jefferson (17:30 UTC), Bowman (19:00), Williams/Cook (19:30) could shift yields and this range
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is the next major test of the 60.30 area
Double top at 61.30 inside a 60.30–61.41 session range.
The Asia rally topped at 61.413 (asia high), London sold to 60.297 (london low), and NY's recovery formed a double top at 61.31/61.30. That rejection came around the 77.9 ISM Prices Paid beat, with yields firm. After London close the bounce off the 60.349 ny low faded at 60.767 (bounce high), short of the 50% fib, and price sits near 60.48 below both EMAs with RSI(14) ~36.
Support: 60.349, 60.297, 60.00
Resistance: 60.767, 61.30, 61.413
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 60.349 ny low and 60.297 london low leaves the 60.00 psych level as the next reference
Recovery above the 60.767 bounce high and the 50% fib near 60.82 would weaken the double top read
Only a move through 61.30 (double top) and the 61.413 asia high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Fed speakers Jefferson 17:30, Bowman 19:00, Williams/Cook 19:30 GMT could jolt yields and this range; NFP is due Fri 12:30 GMT
Silver's double top at 61.30 rolled over after the hot ISM Prices Paid print, and the 60.73 neckline gave way in the NY session. The bounce off the 60.35 NY low has stalled three times at the neckline near 60.77, roughly 38–50% of the NY selloff, and the lower highs off the 61.41 day high are still intact.
Support: 60.349, 60.297, 59.946
Resistance: 60.765, 61.314, 61.413
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 60.77 neckline negates the double top read
Failure to hold the 60.35 NY low and the 60.30 London low exposes the 59.95 Asia low
Close above the lower highs line near 61.30 reopens the 61.41 day high
Fed's Jefferson at 17:30 GMT, then Bowman and Williams/Cook, could shift yields and this read before Friday's NFP
Contracting intraday range 60.30–61.41, price mid-range below EMAs.
The NY session rejected 61.30 (ny high), below the 61.41 asian high, and slid to the 60.35 ny low as record yields and the hot ISM Prices Paid kept USD bid. After London close price sits near 60.75 under both EMAs. Lower highs at 61.41/61.31/61.30 against higher lows at the 60.30 london low and the 60.35 ny low are compressing the day's range.
Support: 60.349, 60.297, 59.946
Resistance: 61.298, 61.413
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 60.30 london low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 59.95 asian low and the $60 floor
M15 close above the 61.30 ny high breaks the lower-highs line and opens a retest of the 61.41 asian high
Fed's Jefferson (17:30 UTC), Bowman (19:00) and Williams/Cook (19:30) could shift the yield driver within hours
US jobs report Fri 12:30 UTC (NFP f/c 90K) is the larger risk to the range
16:17 UTC
Intraday range, lower highs since Asia · RSI 42 · price 60.672
60.30–61.41 range; lower highs at 61.31/61.30, NY low held above London low.
The hot ISM Prices Paid print (77.9 vs 72.3) hit silver at 14:00 GMT. The 61.30 session high was rejected and NY slid to the 60.35 ny low, just above the 60.30 london low. Price sits mid-range near 60.67, under the minor cap at 60.78, the 38.2% of the NY drop fib (~60.72) and both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 60.349, 60.297, 60.00
Resistance: 60.78, 61.00, 61.30
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 60.78 minor cap reclaims the NY drop fib 38.2% and opens the 61.00 round number
Acceptance above 61.30 session high breaks the lower highs trendline from the 61.41 Asia high
Failure to hold the 60.30 london low exposes the 60.00 psych level and Asia low at 59.95
Fed speakers Jefferson 17:30, Bowman 19:00, Williams/Cook 19:30 GMT could materially shift this read ahead of Friday's NFP
Lower highs at 61.41/61.30, lows holding above 60.30.
Silver spiked to a lower high at 61.30 after the hot ISM Prices Paid print (77.9 vs 72.3) and was rejected, sliding to a NY low at 60.35, about 70% back through the London rally fib and just above the London low at 60.30. The Asian range of 59.95–61.41 still contains the day, with the asia high and the lower-high trendline capping and price sitting under both EMAs.
Support: 60.349, 60.297, 59.946
Resistance: 60.785, 61.298, 61.413
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 60.30 london low breaks the range floor and exposes the 60.00 psych / 59.95 asia low
Recovery above the 60.785 ny pivot would neutralise the post-ISM leg lower
Lower-high trendline from 61.41 to 61.30 caps rebounds unless broken
Fed's Jefferson (17:30 GMT), Bowman (19:00) and Williams/Cook (19:30) could shift yields and this read before Friday's NFP
Lower highs from 61.41 Asian high; NY selloff testing the London low base near 60.30.
Silver sold off from the 61.30 lower high during NY hours after the hot ISM Prices Paid (77.9) fed the yield bid. Price dropped to a 60.35 NY low, just above the 60.30 London low. The descending trendline from the 61.41 Asian high keeps supply capping each rally, RSI(14) is near 39 and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 60.35, 60.30, 60.00
Resistance: 60.79, 61.30, 61.41
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 60.30 london low breaks the day's range floor and exposes 60.00 psych
Recovery through the 60.79 minor high would ease NY selling; the 61.30 lower high and trendline remain the cap
Fed's Jefferson (17:30 GMT), Bowman (19:00) and Williams/Cook (19:30) could jolt yields after London close; NFP Fri 12:30 GMT is the larger test
15:32 UTC
Sideways, lower highs into NY · RSI 41 · price 60.664
Silver was rejected at the lower highs near 61.30 after the hot ISM Prices Paid print (77.9 vs 72.3). Price dropped to the 60.414 NY low and now sits near the 61.8% retracement of the London rally, below both EMAs. The 60.297 London low and 59.946 Asian low frame the range floor, with the 61.413 Asian high at the top.
Support: 60.414, 60.297, 59.946
Resistance: 61.30, 61.413
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 60.414 NY low exposes the 60.297 London low and then the 59.946 Asian low
Close above the lower highs trendline near 61.30 breaks the sequence and puts the 61.413 Asian high back in play
Fed's Jefferson (17:30 UTC), Bowman (19:00) and Williams/Cook (19:30) could shift the yield-driven read
ATR near 260 pips: expect wide intraday swings inside the range
15:17 UTC
Intraday range, lower highs into NY · RSI 41 · price 60.624
60.30–61.41 day range; lower high at 61.30 after rejection.
The NY spike after the hot ISM Prices Paid (77.9 vs 72.3) was rejected at 61.30. That printed a lower high under the 61.41 Asian high, and with yields near 5.3% price slid to a 60.41 session low. Now basing near 60.62 inside the 60.30–61.41 day range, below both EMAs, RSI(14) ~41.
Support: 60.414, 60.297, 60.00
Resistance: 61.054, 61.30, 61.413
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.05 prior swing challenges the lower-high sequence; 61.30 lower high and 61.41 asian high sit above
Break of the 60.41 session low exposes the 60.30 london low and 60.00 psych
Fed speakers from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams/Cook) could materially shift this read
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) is the next major risk to the 60.00 area
Three lower highs from the Asian high; NY pressing its session low.
NY session rejected 61.30 for a third lower high after the hot ISM prices paid (77.9 vs 72.3) added to yield pressure. Price is now pressing the NY low at 60.69, which coincides with the 61.8% fib of the London swing, with RSI(14) near 44 and price below both EMAs. The Asian high at 61.41 still caps the day's range.
Support: 60.69, 60.30
Resistance: 61.30, 61.41
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 60.69 NY low breaks the fib zone and exposes the London low at 60.30.
A close above the 61.30 lower-highs line breaks the descending sequence and puts the 61.41 Asian high back in play.
Fed speakers Jefferson (17:30 UTC), Bowman (19:00) and Williams/Cook (19:30) could shift the yield-driven read. NFP lands Fri 12:30 UTC.
14:47 UTC
Range-bound, compressing · RSI 54 · price 60.976
Lower highs from 61.41, higher lows from 60.35.
Asia ran from a 59.95 dip to the 61.41 asian high, London unwound it to the 60.30 london low, and NY is compressing between falling highs near the 61.31 ny high and rising lows at the 60.73 ny low. The hot ISM Prices Paid print drove a two-way swing, capped by a wick rejection at 61.30. RSI(14) is neutral near 54 with price sitting on EMA20.
Support: 60.732, 60.297
Resistance: 61.314, 61.413
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.31 ny high and the falling highs line breaks the compression, exposing the 61.41 asian high
Loss of the 60.73 ny low and the rising lows line reopens the 60.30 london low
Fed speakers from 17:30 GMT (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams, Cook) could materially shift this read ahead of Friday's NFP
14:32 UTC
Sideways, compressing in early NY · RSI 53 · price 60.92
Range 60.73–61.31, lower highs vs flat lows.
Silver has fully retraced London's flush to the 60.30 london low and is now chopping 60.73–61.31 in the first hour of NY. The hot ISM prices paid print (77.9 vs 72.3) knocked price from the 61.16 lower high to the 60.73 ism low, which held near the 61.8% fib of the 60.30–61.31 rally. RSI(14) is neutral near 53, and price sits under EMA20 but on EMA50.
Support: 60.73, 60.30
Resistance: 61.16, 61.31, 61.41
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 60.73 ism low breaks the fib support and reopens the 60.30 london low
M15 close above the 61.16 lower high breaks the lower-highs compression and brings the 61.31 session high and 61.41 asian high back into play
Fed's Jefferson, Bowman, Williams and Cook from 17:30 UTC could materially shift this read; NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
Higher lows from 60.297 London low, lower highs capping below the 61.314 NY high.
Asia ran from a 59.946 asian low to a 61.413 asian high, London reversed it to 60.297, and NY recovered to a 61.314 ny high before a string of lower highs near 61.15. The hot ISM prices paid print (77.9 vs 72.3) knocked price to 60.736, just under the 50% fib of the London-NY rally and holding above the 11:15 UTC swing low at 60.705 and rising support.
Support: 60.705, 60.297, 59.946
Resistance: 61.158, 61.314, 61.413
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 60.705 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising support, exposing the 60.297 london low
Close back above the 61.158 lower high reopens the 61.314 ny high and 61.413 asian high
Loss of the 61.8% fib near 60.685 negates the London-NY rally
Fed's Jefferson, Bowman, Williams and Cook from 17:30 UTC could materially shift this read; NFP Fri 12:30 GMT is the larger event risk
14:05 UTC
Neutral, compressing after London selloff · RSI 52 · price 60.961
Higher lows vs lower highs, contracting consolidation.
Asia ran 59.946 to the 61.413 asia high. London retraced about 76% of that move to the 60.297 london low. Since then, higher lows at 60.705 and 60.864 against a lower high at 61.314 have compressed price into consolidation, with supply capping at the 61.16 intraday cap through the first NY hours. Price is sitting on rising support near 60.94 and hugging EMA20 as the ISM print lands, RSI(14) neutral at 52, while record-high yields keep the metal heavy.
Support: 60.864, 60.705, 60.297
Resistance: 61.165, 61.314, 61.413
What it said to watch
M15 close below rising support and the 60.864 higher low (38.2% of the asia rally fib) breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 60.705 swing low (50% level)
Failure to hold 60.705 reopens the 60.297 london low
Close above the 61.165 intraday cap and the lower-high trendline near 61.31 resolves the consolidation higher and puts the 61.413 asia high in play
ISM Manufacturing (14:00 UTC, f/c 55, prices paid f/c 72.3) and Fed speakers 17:30-19:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the London low, lower high capped under the Asia high.
Silver is mid-range between the 60.297 London low and the 61.413 Asia high. The recovery leg was rejected at the 61.314 session high, a lower high, and the pullback low at 60.864 sits inside the 38.2–50% fib of that leg. Soft PCE relief is being offset by 5.3% 10y yields, and price is coiling around 61.00 ahead of ISM.
Support: 60.864, 60.705, 60.297
Resistance: 61.314, 61.413
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing, Prices Paid and Waller at 14:00 UTC land within the next bar and could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 60.705 higher low breaks the rising sequence and puts the 60.297 London low back in focus
M15 close above the 61.314 session high reopens the 61.413 Asia high, the top of the day's range
A break under the 60.864 pullback low takes price through the 50% fib at 60.806
13:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend off London low, momentum fading · RSI 60 · price 61.065
HH/HL chain from 60.297; lower high vs Asian peak.
London faded the 61.413 Asian high down to a 60.297 London low, then rebuilt a higher-low chain (60.705 higher low) to a 61.314 session high, with silver holding firmer after the soft PCE despite 5.3% 10y yields. In the first hour of NY, price is back at the 61.00 swing low and rising support. RSI(14) is near 60, and ATR is about 185 pips into the 14:00 UTC ISM print.
Support: 61.007, 60.705, 60.297
Resistance: 61.314, 61.413
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing PMI / Prices Paid and Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot print is flagged as the main risk to the $60 handle
M15 close below the 61.007 swing low breaks rising support and puts the 60.705 higher low in view
M15 close above the 61.314 session high opens a retest of the 61.413 asian high
Loss of the 60.297 london low unwinds the intraday HH/HL chain
HH/HL chain since the 60.30 London low, holding inside the Asian range.
London open sold off from the 61.41 Asian high to a 60.30 London low at the Aug-low area. Price has since recovered in a higher-low chain to a 61.31 session high and is now testing the rising trendline near 61.02, with RSI(14) cooling to ~51 ahead of ISM. Yields near 5.3% remain the backdrop that capped the bounce after the soft PCE.
Support: 60.94, 60.705, 60.297
Resistance: 61.314, 61.413, 61.562
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC, plus Waller, could materially shift this read
Break of the rising trendline and the 60.94 swing low (38.2% fib) ends the higher-low chain
Failure to hold the 60.705 61.8% fib exposes the 60.30 London low
Close above the 61.41 Asian high opens the 61.56 prior high from the PCE spike
13:07 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London · RSI 63 · price 61.089
HL chain off London low, capped below Asian high.
Silver has recovered from the 60.297 London low on a chain of higher lows (60.345, 60.705). The 12:30 GMT claims dip at 60.705 was absorbed. Early NY pushed to a 61.314 NY high before a wick rejection, still below the 61.413 Asian high, with ISM at 14:00 GMT as the next catalyst.
Support: 60.705, 60.297
Resistance: 61.314, 61.413
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 14:00 GMT, plus Waller, could materially shift this read
A close above the 61.413 Asian high breaks the session range to the upside
A break below the 60.705 higher low and the rising trendline ends the HL chain
Loss of the 60.297 London low reopens the full Asian range down to 59.946
The 50% fib of the London-to-NY rally sits near 60.81, first test on any pullback
12:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend off London low, approaching resistance · RSI 65 · price 61.226
Higher-low chain from 60.297; capped below Asian high.
Silver has rebuilt from the 60.297 London low with a higher-low chain at 60.705 and 60.941 and is pressing 61.26 into the NY open, still below the 61.413 Asian high. RSI(14) near 65 is not stretched, and the 12:30 UTC jobless claims beat barely dented the bid despite the firm-yield, firm-USD backdrop.
Support: 60.941, 60.705, 60.297
Resistance: 61.413, 61.562
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC (about 75 min) plus Waller could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 61.413 asian high opens the 61.562 prior high from Wednesday's PCE spike
Break of the 60.941 swing low, then the 60.705 higher low, ends the rising-lows sequence
Failure to hold the 60.297 london low returns focus to the Asian low near 59.95
12:32 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London · RSI 65 · price 61.103
HH/HL chain off 60.297 London low, testing 61.15 session high.
Silver has retraced roughly 72% of the London drop from the 61.413 Asia high to the 60.297 London low. The swing low at 60.705 marks the latest higher low, and price is pressing the 61.15 session high as US jobless claims hit at 12:30 GMT. Yields near 5.3% have capped rallies since the PCE spike to 61.562 faded yesterday.
Support: 60.705, 60.297, 59.946
Resistance: 61.15, 61.413, 61.562
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.15 session high opens the 61.413 asia high and the 61.562 pce spike high
Break of the 60.705 swing low and the rising lows trendline voids the higher-low chain
Failure back through the 60.297 london low exposes the 59.946 asia low and the $60.00 area
Jobless claims now, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 GMT, can materially shift this read
Silver rebuilt a HH/HL chain from the 60.297 London low after the Asian high at 61.413 was rejected on the yields-driven selloff. Late London, it is retesting the 61.00 psych and the 61.8% retracement of that decline, with a wick rejection at the 61.15 recent high and the 60.705 higher low beneath.
Support: 60.705, 60.297
Resistance: 61.15, 61.413, 61.562
What it said to watch
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 61.15 recent high opens the path to the 61.413 Asian high, then the 61.562 PCE spike
Break below the 60.705 higher low and the rising trendline undoes the London recovery structure
Loss of the 60.297 London low would mark a lower low for the session
12:05 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London low · RSI 63 · price 61.074
HH/HL chain from 60.297, inside the 59.946–61.413 Asian range.
London erased the Asia rally from the 61.413 Asian high down to the 60.297 London low. Higher lows at 60.345 and the 60.705 swing low have since lifted price back to the 61.15 session high, beyond the 61.8% of the London selloff fib. Price is still inside the Asian range, and yesterday's PCE spike to 61.562 was rejected and remains the upper reference.
Support: 60.705, 60.297, 59.946
Resistance: 61.15, 61.413, 61.562
What it said to watch
Close above the 61.15 session high opens the 61.413 Asian high, with the 61.562 PCE spike above
Loss of the 60.705 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and the HH/HL chain
Break below the 60.297 London low exposes the 59.946 Asian low and the $60 handle
Jobless claims at 12:30 GMT and ISM with Waller at 14:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Higher low at 60.705 after London double bottom, lower high vs Asia peak.
The Asia rally from 59.946 to the 61.413 asia high fully reversed into a London low at 60.297. A double bottom at 60.30/60.35 lifted price back to the 61.054 session high, where supply rejected the move. Price is now retesting the fib 61.8% zone near 60.99 off a swing low at 60.705, with record-high yields and a firm USD capping bounces near $61.
Support: 60.705, 60.297
Resistance: 61.054, 61.413
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing/Prices Paid 14:00 UTC (Waller same time) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 61.054 session high clears the fib 61.8% and exposes the 61.413 asia high
Failure to hold the 60.705 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and reopens the 60.297 london low
11:32 UTC
Two-way, lower highs inside the Asian range · RSI 56 · price 60.828
Asian range 59.95–61.41; London lower high at 61.05 and higher low at 60.30, compressing.
London sold off from the 61.41 Asian high to a 60.30 london low, and a late-session rebound was rejected at the 61.05 london high. Price is holding just above the 60.70 swing low, inside the Asian range, after yesterday's PCE-miss spike to the 61.56 pce high fully reversed. That fade is consistent with firm yields and USD capping rallies.
Support: 60.705, 60.297, 59.946
Resistance: 61.054, 61.413, 61.562
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 60.70 swing low exposes the 61.8% fib of the london leg at 60.59 and then the 60.30 london low
Close above the 61.05 london high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 61.41 asian high
Loss of the 60.30 london low brings the 59.95 asian low and the $60 handle into play
Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC, then ISM Mfg / Prices Paid and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Clearing the 61.41 asian high puts the 61.56 pce high back in focus
Lower highs inside the Asia range; London higher low at 60.297.
London's rebound from the 60.297 london low stalled at the 61.054 london high, under the 61.413 asia high. The 11:00 UTC rejection bar has retraced about 38% of that leg, and price is sitting just above EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 51. Highs are stepping lower from yesterday's post-PCE spike, so the soft PCE miss is not lifting silver while 10y yields hold near 5.3%.
Support: 60.297, 59.946
Resistance: 61.054, 61.413
What it said to watch
A close above the 61.054 london high breaks the lower-high trendline and opens the 61.413 asia high
Failure to hold the 60.297 london low exposes the 59.946 asia low and the $60 handle
A move below the 61.8% level of the london swing fib (~60.59) would erase most of the London rebound
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid with Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
11:04 UTC
Intraday range, rebounding off London low · RSI 58 · price 60.981
Higher low at 60.345 after 60.297 London low; bounce stalling at 61.8% of the London selloff.
London sold the Asian high at 61.413 down to a 60.297 London low, then a higher low at 60.345 fed a rebound to a 61.054 bounce high. Price is now stalling at the 61.8% of the London selloff, right at the $61 handle, with RSI(14) near 58. That $61 area is where bounces have stalled, with the digest pointing to 10y yields near 5.3% and a firm USD capping silver.
Support: 60.855, 60.297, 59.946
Resistance: 61.054, 61.101, 61.413
What it said to watch
Close above the 61.101 london high clears the 61.8% retracement and exposes the 61.413 asian high
Loss of the 50% fib at 60.855 and the higher-low line puts the 60.297 london low back in focus; the 59.946 day low sits below
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read in NY hours
10:47 UTC
Rebounding inside Asia range · RSI 58 · price 60.885
London low 60.297 a higher low vs Asia low; London lower-high chain broken.
London open sold off from the 61.413 Asia high to a 60.297 London low, holding above the 59.946 Asia low. A double bottom at 60.30–60.35 has since cleared the London downtrend line and the 60.79 broken high. Price is stalling at the 60.947 bounce high, just under the 61.8% fib and 61.00 round number, with yields and the firm USD still driving silver into US data.
Support: 60.79, 60.297, 59.946
Resistance: 60.947, 61.00, 61.413
What it said to watch
A close above the 61.00 round number opens the path back to the 61.413 Asia high.
Failure to hold the 60.79 broken high returns price to the 60.30–60.79 London range.
A break of the 60.297 London low exposes the 59.946 Asia low and the $60 handle.
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing (prices paid) at 14:00 UTC, with Waller also speaking at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read.
10:32 UTC
Down from Asia high, basing in late London · RSI 47 · price 60.698
London sell-off to 60.30, higher low at 60.35, capped by 60.79 lower high.
The Asia rally from 59.95 was rejected at the 61.41 Asia high, and London unwound it to a 60.30 London low as the firm USD and 5.3% yields capped silver. Price has since printed a higher low at 60.35 and is retesting the 38.2% fib near 60.72, just under the 60.79 lower high, with RSI(14) near 47 and price pinned between EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 60.345, 60.297, 60.00
Resistance: 60.791, 61.00, 61.413
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 60.79 lower high opens the 61.00 round number, near the 61.8% fib
Break of the 60.35 higher low and the 60.30 London low resumes the London decline toward the 60.00 psych handle
Jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Mfg prices paid at 14:00 UTC in the NY session could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the 61.41 Asian high; 60.30–60.60 consolidation.
Silver formed a double top at the 61.41 Asian high, then London sold it to a 60.30 low as firm yields and USD outweighed the soft-PCE relief. Since 08:45 UTC price has compressed between that London low and the 60.60 range top under a lower-highs trendline, with RSI(14) near 39 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 60.297, 59.946
Resistance: 60.601, 60.791, 61.413
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 60.60 range top and the lower-highs trendline opens the 60.72 fib 38.2% and the 60.79 swing high.
A break of the 60.30 London low, which matches the Aug-5 low area, exposes the 59.95 Asian low and the $60 handle.
Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid with Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read.
London lower highs and lower lows inside the Asian range, compressing near the lows.
London unwound most of the Asian rally from the 59.946 Asian low to the 61.413 Asian high. Lower highs stepped down to a 60.297 London low, and price now sits between the 61.8% and 78.6% levels of the Asia rally fib, with RSI(14) near 35. Mid-London, price is coiling between 60.297 and the 60.601 lower high, as 10y yields near 5.3% cap the post-PCE bounce.
Support: 60.297, 59.946
Resistance: 60.601, 60.791, 61.413
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 60.601 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and exposes the 60.79 swing high
Failure to hold the 60.297 London low exposes the 59.946 Asian low and the $60 handle
Only a recovery through the 61.413 Asian high would negate the London reversal
Jobless Claims 12:30 GMT, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 GMT, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the 61.41 Asian high; tight base at 60.30–60.51 mid-London.
The Asian rally from 59.95 was rejected at the 61.41 Asian high. Selling started late in Asia and accelerated at the London open as yields pressed toward 5.3%, leaving a run of lower highs. Mid-London, price is basing just above the London low at 60.30 with RSI(14) near 38, and the lower high at 60.79 sits near the 38.2% retracement of the drop.
Support: 60.30, 59.95
Resistance: 60.79, 61.00, 61.41
What it said to watch
A close below the London low at 60.30 extends the lower-low sequence toward the Asian low at 59.95
Reclaiming the 60.79 lower high and the 50% fib at 60.86 breaks the lower-high chain; 61.00 psych sits above
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM with Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend since London open · RSI 34 · price 60.439
Asian rally rejected; lower high, lower low chain in London.
Asia ran from the 59.946 asia low to the 61.413 asia high on the soft-PCE repricing. London opened with a sharp rejection that printed a lower high at 60.791 and a london low at 60.297. Price is now stalling just under the 61.8% fib of the Asian leg near 60.51, with RSI(14) around 34 and both EMAs overhead.
Support: 60.297, 59.946
Resistance: 60.51, 60.791, 61.413
What it said to watch
Failure to reclaim the 61.8% fib near 60.51 keeps the London lower-low sequence intact
Reclaiming the 60.791 lower high neutralises the London downtrend read
A break of the 60.297 london low exposes the 59.946 asia low and the 60.00 psych level
Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55, Prices Paid 72.3) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 61.413 Asian high, London session low at 60.297.
The Asian rally from the 59.946 swing low to the 61.413 Asian high has been almost fully unwound through the London session. Price stepped down in lower highs to a 60.297 session low and now sits between the 61.8% and 78.6% retrace of that move. It mirrors the post-PCE spike to 61.56 yesterday, which faded as strong growth data and high yields capped silver.
Support: 60.297, 60.00, 59.946
Resistance: 60.79, 61.00, 61.413
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 60.297 session low exposes the 60.00 psych level and the 59.946 swing low
A close above the 60.79 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and brings the 61.00 round number into play
Jobless Claims (12:30 GMT), ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid (14:00 GMT) and Waller could materially shift this read
Asian rally fully faded; London printing lower highs and lower lows.
Silver rallied from the 59.946 asian low to 61.413 during Asia on the soft PCE read. London rejected that asian high and has since retraced about 76% of the move to a 60.297 session low, close to the 78.6% fib (60.26), with each bounce capped at a lower high under the descending trendline. RSI(14) is near 27, stretched but not extreme.
Support: 60.297, 60.00, 59.946
Resistance: 60.593, 60.791, 61.413
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 60.297 session low opens the 60.00 round number and the 59.946 asian low
Reclaiming the 60.593 lower high and the 60.791 swing high breaks the London lower-high chain
Jobless Claims 12:30 GMT and ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid 14:00 GMT, plus Waller at 14:00, could materially shift this read
Clean break of the descending trendline would signal the London leg is losing momentum
08:47 UTC
Downtrend, London reversal extending · RSI 26 · price 60.328
Lower highs off Asian high, testing session low.
Rejection at the 61.413 Asian high at London open unwound the Asian rally off 59.946, with a lower high at 60.791 capping under a London downtrend line and price now pressing the 60.30 session low, beyond the 61.8% retrace. RSI(14) near 26 is stretched but not extreme. The soft-PCE bounce is fading against firm USD and yields.
Support: 60.304, 60.00, 59.946
Resistance: 60.791, 61.00, 61.413
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 60.30 session low exposes the 60.00 round number and the 59.946 Asian low
Reclaim of the 60.79 lower high breaks the London downtrend line; 61.00 round number sits above, then the 61.413 Asian high
Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing 14:00 UTC (f/c 55, Prices Paid 72.3) plus Waller at 14:00 could materially shift this read
08:32 UTC
Downtrend, intraday selling since London open · RSI 30 · price 60.392
Lower highs and lower lows after rejection at the Asian high.
London open reversed the Asian rally off the 59.946 asian low. Price was capped at the 61.413 asian high and slid about 1,000 pips through the 61.8% fib to 60.39, with lower highs near 60.79 forming a descending trendline. RSI(14) sits near 30 without reaching an extreme, and the post-PCE bounce has fully faded as yields stay firm.
Support: 60.283, 60.028, 59.946
Resistance: 60.79, 61.00, 61.413
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 60.283 swing low exposes the 60.028 prior low and the 59.946 asian low
M15 close above the 60.79 lower high breaks the descending trendline, with the 61.00 round number next above
Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing/Prices Paid and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
08:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend since London open · RSI 33 · price 60.579
Lower highs from 61.41, testing 61.8% of Asian recovery.
Early London has unwound most of the Asian recovery from 59.95 to 61.41 that followed the soft PCE print. Price was rejected at the asian high and has since made a chain of lower highs down to the 60.46 london low, which sits near the 61.8% fib. Bounces are capped at the 60.79 lower high as the firm USD and yields weigh; RSI(14) is near 33 and ATR is about 180 pips.
Support: 60.46, 60.26, 59.95
Resistance: 60.79, 61.10, 61.41
What it said to watch
A close below the 60.46 london low exposes the 78.6% fib at 60.26 and the 59.95 asian low beneath psych 60.00
Reclaiming the 60.79 lower high and the london trendline would break the intraday lower-high chain; the 61.10 breakdown level is next
Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Mfg/Prices Paid and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Asia rally retraced to 61.8%; bounce capped below 60.79.
Asia ran from a sweep below $60.00 at the 59.946 asian low to a 61.413 asian high. Supply appeared there into the London open, with the drop reaching the 60.462 london low at the 61.8% level of the asia rally fib. The bounce stalled at the 60.79 bounce high; price is below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 38, echoing yesterday's faded post-PCE spike as strong US growth data and a firm USD capped silver.
Support: 60.462, 60.30, 59.946
Resistance: 60.791, 61.00, 61.413
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 60.462 london low exposes the 60.30 prior shelf and the 59.946 asian low
M15 close back above the 60.79 bounce high and the 61.00 round number would put the 61.413 asian high back in view
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing/Prices Paid and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
London open dropped ~65% of the Asian rally, bounce off 60.46 forming.
London open drove a rejection from the 61.413 asian high down to a 60.462 london low. That retraced ~65% of the Asian rally off 59.946, just under the fib 61.8%, before a bounce toward 60.74. Price is back below the 61.00 psych pivot and EMA20 and sits just above EMA50, with silver still capped under $61 despite yesterday's soft PCE print; RSI(14) ~40, ATR ~168 pips.
Support: 60.462, 60.30, 59.946
Resistance: 61.00, 61.413, 61.562
What it said to watch
A close back above the 61.00 psych pivot reopens the 61.413 asian high, with the 61.562 pce spike high above that
Failure to hold the 60.462 london low (fib 61.8% zone) exposes the asia base near 60.30 and the 59.946 asian low
Jobless claims 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing/Prices Paid with Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
07:32 UTC
Sharp reversal lower at London open, Asia rally mostly erased · RSI 29 · price 60.533
Double top near 61.41 then breakdown through 61.00, testing 61.8% fib of the Asia leg.
Silver's Asia climb from the 59.946 asian low stalled at a double top at the 61.413 asian high. London open then broke back through the 61.00 pivot, printing a 60.462 london low. Price sits on the 61.8% fib of the Asia leg with RSI(14) near 29, as the post-PCE lift fades against a firm USD.
Support: 60.462, 60.30, 59.946
Resistance: 61.00, 61.413
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 60.462 london low exposes the 60.30 prior low and the 59.946 asian low
A recovery back above the 61.00 pivot would neutralise the London breakdown and put the 61.413 asian high back in view
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 GMT, then ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid with Waller at 14:00 GMT, could materially shift this read
Twin highs at 61.41 rejected, Asia trendline broken.
Asia swept below Wednesday's 60.03 low to 59.946, then rallied to twin highs at the 61.413 asian high. That double top rejected and the pre-London drop broke the Asia trendline to a 60.949 pullback low. London is opening on the $61 pivot below the ema20, with RSI(14) neutral near 49 and silver still struggling to extend the post-PCE bounce.
Support: 60.949, 60.853, 60.68
Resistance: 61.12, 61.413, 61.562
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 60.949 pullback low exposes the fib 38.2 at 60.85, then the fib 50 at 60.68
Reclaim of the ema20 near 61.12, then a close above the 61.413 asian high, negates the double top
61.562 pce high from Wednesday's spike is the next cap above the Asian range
Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing/Prices Paid and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
06:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Asia low, now pulling back · RSI 49 · price 61.021
V-recovery off 59.95 sweep, rejection under asian high, trendline broken.
Yesterday's PCE spike to the 61.56 pce high faded on firm US data. Asia then swept below the NY low to 59.95 and reversed to the 61.41 asian high. Ahead of London open, the 06:30 GMT bar dropped about 285 pips to 60.98, breaking the intraday trendline and testing the 61.00 round number. RSI(14) is back near 49 and price is below EMA20.
Support: 61.00, 60.853, 60.618
Resistance: 61.413, 61.562
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 61.00 round number exposes the fib 38.2 at 60.85, then the 60.62 pullback low
Reclaim of the 61.41 asian high reopens the 61.56 pce high
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 14:00 GMT, with Waller speaking at the same time, could materially shift this read
06:33 UTC
Uptrend, momentum slowing · RSI 68 · price 61.258
HH/HL chain off the 59.946 sweep low, stalling below the 61.413 session high.
Asia session reversed sharply from a sweep below $60.00 (59.946) into a steady HH/HL climb. Price reclaimed the $61.00 pivot despite the firm USD tone and set a session high at 61.413. RSI(14) is near 68 and cooling as the last bars stall around 61.25, just under the 61.562 prior high from the PCE spike, heading into London open.
Support: 61.223, 60.972, 60.853
Resistance: 61.413, 61.562
What it said to watch
A break of the 61.22 micro low exposes the 61.00 pivot and the 60.97 swing low, which sits near the 23.6% Asia rally fib
Loss of the 60.97 swing low breaks the HL chain and puts the 38.2% fib at 60.85 in play
A close above the 61.413 session high opens a retest of the 61.562 prior high
Jobless Claims at 12:30 GMT, then ISM Manufacturing, Prices Paid and Waller at 14:00 GMT, could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain off the 59.95 Asia low, stalling under the 61.41 session high.
After yesterday's soft-PCE spike to 61.56 faded to 60.03 in NY, Asia dipped to 59.95 and then climbed in a steady higher-low chain back above 61.00. Late Asia is stalling under the 61.41 session high, with RSI(14) near 66 and price sitting on rising support from the 60.97 pullback low.
Support: 61.22, 60.97
Resistance: 61.413, 61.48, 61.562
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 61.22 swing low breaks the Asia higher-low chain and exposes the 60.97 pullback low
Clearance of the 61.41 session high and the 61.48 prior high opens the 61.56 pce spike
London open is the first test of the Asia-session rally and its rising support
ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 GMT could materially shift this read
06:04 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 71 · price 61.342
HH/HL chain since the 59.946 Asia sweep low.
Asia swept below $60 to 59.946 after midnight UTC, then rebounded roughly 1.47 and reclaimed the 61 pivot. Price is now testing the 61.41 asia high just under yesterday's 61.48 prior high and the 61.56 pce spike, with RSI(14) near 71 ahead of London open. The bounce runs against a firm USD backdrop, since the soft PCE impulse has largely been absorbed.
Support: 61.063, 61.00, 60.853
Resistance: 61.413, 61.48, 61.562
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.56 pce spike clears yesterday's range top, with the digest's 61.75 level next
Repeated rejection at the 61.41 asia high and 61.48 prior high would leave a double-top risk inside the session range
Break of the rising trendline and the 61.06 swing low puts the 61 pivot and the 38.2% fib at 60.85 back in focus
Claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing/Prices Paid and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
05:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extended near session high · RSI 71 · price 61.285
Higher-high/higher-low chain since the Asia-open sweep below 60.00.
Yesterday's soft-PCE pce spike to 61.562 faded to a 60.03 low. Asia opened with a sweep under 60.00 to 59.946, then turned into a higher-high/higher-low climb that reclaimed the 61.00 pivot. Late in the Asian session, price sits just below the 61.413 session high and under yesterday's 61.48 prior high, with RSI(14) near 71. The latest higher low is 61.063 and the deeper swing low is 60.972.
Support: 61.063, 60.972, 60.853
Resistance: 61.413, 61.48, 61.562
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 60.972 swing low breaks the higher-low chain; the 38.2% fib of the Asia move sits at 60.853
Acceptance above the 61.48 prior high and the 61.562 pce spike clears yesterday's intraday ceiling
A rejection at the 61.413 session high into the London open would leave the higher-low trendline at 61.063 as the next test
Jobless claims at 12:30 GMT, then ISM Manufacturing/Prices Paid and Waller at 14:00 GMT, could materially shift this read
05:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend off Asia low, momentum firm · RSI 73 · price 61.329
HH/HL chain from 59.946 sweep, testing session high.
Asia dipped through the 60.00 round number and the prior 60.028 low to 59.946, then reversed. A higher-low chain carried price back through the 61.00 pivot, and it is now pressing the 61.363 session high into the London open with RSI(14) near 73. Overhead sit the 61.48 prior high and the 61.562 PCE spike high, which faded yesterday as strong growth data offset the soft print.
Support: 61.063, 61.00, 60.618
Resistance: 61.363, 61.48, 61.562
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 61.063 higher low and 61.00 pivot breaks the higher-low trendline and the HH/HL chain
Acceptance above the 61.363 session high exposes the 61.48 prior high and 61.562 PCE spike high
Loss of the 60.618 swing low, near the 50% level of the Asia rally fib, unwinds most of the recovery
Jobless claims 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
05:17 UTC
Uptrend, RSI near 70 · RSI 70 · price 61.227
Higher highs and higher lows off the Asia sweep low, pressing the Asia high.
Late in the Asia session, silver dipped below the $60 round number to 59.946, then recovered $1.32. It has reclaimed the $61.00 pivot and is printing higher lows, with the higher low at 61.06 just under the 61.27 Asia high. RSI(14) is near 70. Yesterday's PCE miss spiked price to 61.56, but strong growth data fully reversed that move, so the PCE spike area remains the upside reference.
Support: 61.063, 60.96, 60.764
Resistance: 61.269, 61.48, 61.562
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.27 Asia high opens the 61.48 prior high and the 61.56 PCE spike
Close back below $61.00 and the 61.06 higher low exposes the 60.96 swing low, then the fib 38.2 near 60.76
London open is the first test of whether the Asia range extends or fades
Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
05:06 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Asia low, RSI hot · RSI 73 · price 61.234
Higher lows since 59.946 sweep, pressing session high.
Early in the Asia session, price swept below the $60.00 round number to 59.946 and reversed. The rally has since unwound much of Wednesday's selloff from the 61.562 PCE spike and reclaimed the 61.00 pivot. Price is pressing the session high at 61.239 with RSI(14) near 73, and higher lows are holding along the rising trendline ahead of London open.
Support: 61.063, 61.00, 60.745
Resistance: 61.239, 61.48, 61.562
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 61.00 pivot and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain from the Asia low
Hold above the 61.063 swing low keeps the intraday higher-low sequence intact
Clean break of the 61.239 session high exposes the 61.48 prior high and the 61.562 PCE spike
A deeper pullback holding the fib 38.2 of the Asia rally near 60.745 keeps the reversal structure intact
Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing plus Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
04:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below Asian high · RSI 69 · price 61.127
Asia V-recovery from 59.946 into a HH/HL chain, now a tight 61.06–61.23 shelf.
Late Asia session: silver swept below $60.00 to the 59.946 asian low, then climbed in a HH/HL chain back over the 61 pivot. It is now holding a tight shelf under the 61.228 asian high, with RSI(14) near 69. Yesterday's soft-PCE spike to the 61.562 pce high faded through NY. With 10y yields near 19-year highs, that spike top and the 61.48 london high cap the area overhead.
Support: 60.618, 59.946
Resistance: 61.228, 61.48, 61.562
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.228 asian high opens the 61.48 london high and the 61.562 pce high
Loss of the 61 pivot puts the 60.618 swing low and the 50% asia leg fib near 60.59 in focus
A break back under the 59.946 asian low invalidates the Asia recovery structure
London open in ~2h is likely to set the first test of the Asian range high
Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing/Prices Paid and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off the Asia low, now a tight 60.97–61.23 range above 61.00.
Early Asia swept Wednesday's 60.03 low and the $60 round number to the 59.946 asia low, then reversed into a HH/HL climb to the 61.228 asia high. Price is now holding the 60.972 swing low just above the 61.00 pivot, with RSI(14) near 69. Wednesday's post-PCE spike high at 61.562 and the 61.48 wed high sit overhead, while the soft PCE print has done little to lift silver against firm yields.
Support: 60.972, 60.618, 59.946
Resistance: 61.228, 61.48, 61.562
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 60.972 swing low breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes the 60.618 higher low near the 38.2% fib
Close above the 61.228 asia high opens the 61.48 wed high and 61.562 spike high
Jobless claims 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid alongside Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
London open in ~2.5h tests whether the Asia rally range holds
HH/HL chain off the sub-60.00 sweep, now a tight 60.97–61.23 hold above the 61.00 pivot.
Asia session swept below 60.00 to 59.946, reclaimed it and climbed in a higher-low chain to a 61.228 session high, a short-covering pop on the soft-PCE backdrop despite a firm USD. Price is now compressing between the 60.972 swing low and the session high, holding just above the 61.00 pivot with RSI(14) cooling from the high 60s and London open about 3h out.
Support: 60.972, 60.83, 60.738
Resistance: 61.228, 61.562
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 60.972 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the 60.83 higher low in play
Loss of 60.83 opens the 38.2% fib of the Asia rally at 60.738
Acceptance above the 61.228 session high exposes yesterday's 61.562 prior high from the PCE spike
ISM Manufacturing 14:00 GMT (f/c 55, Prices Paid 72.3) and Waller at 14:00 could materially shift this read
04:05 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling under Asia high · RSI 73 · price 61.138
V-reversal from a sweep of $60 into a higher-high/higher-low chain; holding just below the 61.228 Asia high.
Asia session swept below $60 to the 59.946 Asia low, then reversed sharply. Price reclaimed 61.00 in a higher-low chain (60.618, 60.972) and now sits just under the 61.228 Asia high, with RSI(14) near 73. The bounce has recovered most of yesterday's post-data slide from the 61.562 prior high, despite a firm USD backdrop.
Support: 60.972, 60.618, 59.946
Resistance: 61.228, 61.562
What it said to watch
M15 close below the higher-low trendline and the 60.972 swing low breaks the intraday HH/HL chain
A deeper pullback that holds the 60.618 higher low, near the 38.2–50% fib of the Asia low-high rally, keeps the reversal structure intact
A close above the 61.228 Asia high opens the path toward the 61.48–61.562 prior high area
London open in about 3h is the first test of whether the Asian range holds
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, plus ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
03:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below Asian high · RSI 71 · price 61.098
V-reversal from sub-60 sweep, higher-low chain intact.
Late in the Asia session, silver swept below $60.00 to the 59.946 Asian low at 00:15 GMT. It then ran a higher-low Asian rally through yesterday's 60.48 NY range top to a 61.228 Asian high, an oversold short-covering bounce after Wednesday's hot-data selloff from the 61.562 post-PCE prior high. Price is holding 61.10 on the rising trendline just above the 60.96 swing low, with RSI(14) near 71 and the 60.62 breakout base well below.
Support: 60.96, 60.62, 59.946
Resistance: 61.228, 61.562
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 60.96 swing low and rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain
Close above the 61.228 Asian high opens the 61.562 prior high
Loss of the 60.62 breakout base puts the 59.946 Asian low back in play
Jobless claims 12:30 and ISM plus Waller at 14:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Asia sweep under 60.00 reversed into higher highs; pausing near 61.00.
Asia session swept below $60.00 to the 59.946 asia low, then reversed sharply. Price reclaimed the 60.48 prior high and printed a 61.228 session high, and is now pausing just above the 61.00 round number with RSI(14) near 73. The bounce has recovered most of yesterday's post-PCE slide from the 61.562 spike high, despite the digest's hawkish-Fed backdrop.
Support: 61.00, 60.48, 59.946
Resistance: 61.228, 61.562
What it said to watch
Holding the 61.00 round number keeps the Asia higher-high chain intact; losing it brings the 38.2% fib near 60.74 into view
M15 close above the 61.228 session high opens the 61.562 spike high
Failure back below the 60.48 prior high returns price to the overnight range, with the 59.946 asia low as the next reference
Jobless Claims 12:30 GMT and ISM Manufacturing 14:00 GMT, plus Waller at 14:00, could materially shift this read
V-reversal from sub-$60 sweep, HH/HL chain through Asia.
Asia session dipped below $60 to a 59.946 sweep low, then reversed about 128 cents to a 61.228 session high. That move reclaimed the 61.00 round number and retraced most of yesterday's post-PCE slide. Price is back in the pre-PCE 61.00–61.48 band with RSI(14) near 74, and the higher low at 60.618 anchors the rally trendline.
Support: 61.00, 60.618, 59.946
Resistance: 61.228, 61.48, 61.562
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 61.00 round number turns the breakout into a failed retest
Break of the 60.618 higher low and rally trendline undoes the Asia reversal
Clearance of the 61.228 session high exposes the 61.48 prior high and the 61.562 pce spike
Loss of the 59.946 sweep low would confirm a fresh lower-low below $60
Jobless Claims 12:30 GMT, ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 GMT could materially shift this read
03:05 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asia low, RSI hot · RSI 71 · price 60.994
Higher lows since the sub-60.00 sweep, price pressing the 61.00 round number.
The Asia session took out the NY low near 60.03 with a dip to the 59.95 Asia low. Price then reversed about 1,050 pips into the 61.00 round number, building higher lows with RSI(14) near 71. The post-PCE pop to the 61.56 pce spike high faded yesterday on hot GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI data, and price is now retracing that slide ahead of London open.
Support: 60.618, 60.482, 59.946
Resistance: 61.00, 61.348, 61.562
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.00 round number opens the 61.35 post-pce hi
Failure to hold the 60.62 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain and the trendline from the Asia low
Loss of the 60.48 prior high puts the 59.95 Asia low back in focus
Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing plus Waller 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:47 UTC
Sharp Asia rebound inside a broader intraday decline · RSI 69 · price 60.848
Sweep below 60.00 reversed, higher lows, price pressing the Asia high.
Yesterday's hot GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI prints outweighed the soft PCE and drove the post-PCE drop from 61.562. In the Asia session silver swept below $60.00 to a 59.946 sweep low and reversed, reclaiming the 60.48 prior high. Price is now stalling under the 60.872 Asia high, just below the fib 61.8 near 60.945, with RSI(14) near 69 and the 60.618 swing low as the latest higher low on the rebound trendline.
Support: 60.618, 60.482, 59.946
Resistance: 60.872, 60.945, 61.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 60.872 Asia high and the fib 61.8 at 60.945 puts the 61.00 round number in play
Break of the 60.618 swing low and the rebound trendline exposes the 60.48 prior high
Loss of the 59.946 sweep low voids the false-break read below $60.00
Jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
02:32 UTC
Asia rebound, higher highs and higher lows off 59.946 · RSI 68 · price 60.847
False break below 60.00, then higher low at 60.618; price pressing the pre-PCE high.
Yesterday's soft-PCE spike to 61.562 was fully unwound by hot growth data. The Asia session then swept below $60.00 to a 59.946 sweep low, and reversed about 90 cents with a higher low at 60.618. Price now presses the 60.879 pre-PCE high, just under the 61.8% fib of the post-PCE drop at 60.945, with RSI(14) near 68.
Support: 60.618, 60.482, 59.946
Resistance: 60.879, 60.945, 61.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 60.879 pre-PCE high and the 61.8% fib at 60.945 opens the 61.00 round number
A break below the 60.618 higher low ends the Asia higher-high/higher-low chain and exposes the 60.482 late NY high
A return under 60.00 toward the 59.946 sweep low would negate the false-break read
Jobless claims 12:30 UTC, then ISM and Waller 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
V-recovery off sub-$60 sweep; higher lows below the session high.
The Asia session swept below $60.00 to the 59.946 asian low and then reclaimed the late ny high at 60.482 in a single 47-cent bar. Price is now pressing the 60.806 session high with RSI(14) near 65, after yesterday's slide from the 61.562 pce high as hot GDP and Chicago PMI data outweighed the soft PCE print.
Support: 60.618, 60.482, 59.946
Resistance: 60.806, 61.00, 61.562
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 60.806 session high exposes the $61.00 round number
Losing the 60.618 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain; below the 60.482 ny high, the rebound sits in the lower half of the fib
A return under the 59.946 asian low would turn the sweep into a lower low
Jobless claims at 12:30 GMT and ISM Manufacturing with Prices Paid plus Waller at 14:00 GMT could materially shift this read
False break below 60.00, reclaim of 60.48 prior high.
Yesterday's post-PCE spike to 61.56 faded on the growth beats. Early Asia then broke below 60.00 to a 59.946 session low, under yesterday's 60.03 low, before a single-bar reversal cleared the 60.48 prior high. Price is holding near 60.72, just under the 60.81 session high, with RSI(14) near 64 and price above both EMAs.
Support: 60.48, 59.946
Resistance: 60.806, 61.00
What it said to watch
Holding the 60.48 prior high, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the Asia rebound, keeps the false-break reversal intact. A return below it exposes 60.00 and the 59.946 session low.
An M15 close above the 60.81 session high opens the 61.00 round number, flagged in the digest as an intraday cap.
Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
01:47 UTC
Sharp Asia rebound after a sweep below 60.00 · RSI 64 · price 60.754
False break under 60.00, reclaim of 60.48 prior high, now at session high.
The Asia session opened with a sweep under the 60.03 NY low to a 59.95 session low. A sharp reversal followed off the 60.15 rally base, reclaiming the 60.48 prior high, and price is now pressing the 60.80 session high with RSI(14) near 64. Yesterday's 61.56 spike on the soft PCE print faded as beats in GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI kept yields firm.
Support: 60.48, 60.15, 59.946
Resistance: 60.80, 61.00
What it said to watch
A close above the 60.80 session high exposes the 61.00 round number, the cap flagged in the digest
Failure to hold the 60.48 prior high puts the 60.15 rally base back in play
A break back below the 59.95 session low negates the false-break read
A pullback toward the asia rally fib 50% near 60.37 keeps the rebound structure intact
Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:32 UTC
Downtrend, sharp Asia rebound · RSI 60 · price 60.65
Sweep of $60.00 reclaimed; lower-high sequence from 61.56 under test.
The post-PCE spike to 61.56 failed as GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats firmed the dollar, and the NY session sold off to 60.03. Asia session swept below $60.00 to the 59.946 sweep low, then a thrust from the 60.15 thrust base cleared the late-NY high at 60.48. The thrust stalled at the 60.739 Asia high, just under the 50% fib of the PCE-day decline. RSI(14) sits near 60 and ATR runs about 155 pips.
Support: 60.48, 60.15, 59.946
Resistance: 60.739, 61.00
What it said to watch
A close above the 60.739 Asia high and the 50% fib opens the round number at 61.00, which sits near the 61.8% retracement
Failure to hold the late-NY high at 60.48 puts the 60.15 thrust base back in play
A return below the 59.946 sweep low resumes the lower-low sequence through $60.00
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing/Prices Paid and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
01:17 UTC
Downtrend from post-PCE high, sharp Asia bounce · RSI 58 · price 60.595
False break below 60.00 reversed; price reclaimed prior high at 38.2% of the drop.
The PCE-miss spike to 61.56 was fully reversed as GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats lifted the dollar, driving a NY-session slide to 60.03. Early Asia session probed under 60.00 to the 59.95 sweep low, then one bar ran to the 60.62 asia high, back above the 60.48 prior high and at the 38.2% retrace of the post-PCE drop, with fib 50% at 60.75 and the 61.00 round number overhead.
Support: 60.482, 60.283, 59.946
Resistance: 60.62, 60.754, 61.00
What it said to watch
Holding above the 60.48 prior high keeps the Asia reversal intact; a slip back below exposes the 60.28 swing low
M15 close above 60.75 fib 50% opens the 61.00 round number
Return below the 59.95 sweep low negates the false break and resumes the downtrend
Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:06 UTC
Downtrend, early Asia bounce · RSI 41 · price 60.252
Lower highs from 61.562 data spike; Asia swept 60.00 then reclaimed.
The US data spike to 61.562 reversed into a NY-session slide as growth beats kept USD and yields firm. Early Asia then swept the 60.00 psych and the 60.028 prior low to the 59.946 sweep low before reclaiming it. Price is now bouncing into the old Asian range floor at 60.283, near the 61.8% of the 60.482–59.946 leg, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 60.00, 59.946
Resistance: 60.283, 60.482
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 60.283 range floor and the 61.8% fib reopens the 60.482 NY high
Failure to hold the 60.00 psych and a break of the 59.946 sweep low extends the lower-low sequence
ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
00:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since the post-data spike · RSI 39 · price 60.188
Lower highs from 61.562; Asia sweep under 60.00 reclaimed.
The early Asia session swept under the 60.00 psych and the 60.028 NY low to a 59.946 sweep low, then reclaimed it. Price now sits at 60.19, below the 60.39 Asia high and the 60.482 NY high. Lower highs from the 61.562 post-data spike remain intact, with strong US growth beats outweighing the soft PCE. RSI(14) near 39 with price under both EMAs.
Support: 60.028, 60.00, 59.946
Resistance: 60.39, 60.482, 60.563
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 60.00 psych and the 59.946 sweep low would extend the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 60.39 Asia high and 60.482 NY high would break the descending trendline
Fib 38.2 at 60.563 is the first retracement cap of the 61.562–59.946 move
Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
00:32 UTC
Downtrend, fresh low in Asia · RSI 31 · price 60.054
Lower highs from 61.56 spike; quiet 60.03–60.48 range broken lower.
Early Asia session broke the 60.03 NY low and the $60 round number, printing a 59.95 session low before a partial reclaim to 60.05. This extends the fade from the 61.56 PCE spike, as growth beats kept yields firm. RSI(14) is near 31, soft but not extreme.
Support: 60.028, 59.946
Resistance: 60.364, 60.482
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 60.36 asian high negates the range-break read
Failure to hold the 59.95 session low confirms a fresh lower-low below $60
Swing high at 60.48 and the PCE spike fib 38.2% near 60.56 sit above as caps
Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
The 61.56 post-PCE spike was rejected within the hour, and the Chicago PMI and GDP beats dragged silver to a 60.03 NY low. The late-NY recovery stalled at 60.48 (ny high). Early Asia session printed a lower high at 60.39 and slipped back below the 60.30 aug low to an asia low of 60.18, right on the 61.8% retrace of the recovery, with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 60.177, 60.028, 60.00
Resistance: 60.30, 60.39, 60.482
What it said to watch
A close below the 60.18 asia low exposes the 60.03 ny low and the 60.00 round number
A break of 60.00 extends the post-data downtrend; holding the 61.8% retrace keeps the recovery structure alive
Reclaiming the 60.30 aug low and the 60.39 lower high breaks the Asia lower-high sequence, reopening the 60.48 ny high
Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) and ISM Manufacturing with Prices Paid (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Post-PCE spike rejected, 60.028 swing low, then shallow higher lows into a tight Asian range.
The soft core PCE print spiked silver to 61.562 at 12:30 UTC. The move was rejected as GDP and Chicago PMI beats firmed the dollar, and price slid to a 60.028 swing low just above the 60.00 psych level. Since then, higher lows along rising support have compressed price into a 60.283–60.443 Asia range below the 60.482 late NY high, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and the bounce stalling under the 23.6% fib.
Support: 60.283, 60.028, 60.00
Resistance: 60.443, 60.482
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 60.283 asia low and rising support exposes the 60.028 swing low and 60.00 psych
Close above the 60.482 late ny high clears the 23.6% fib of the PCE spike decline
Asia high at 60.443 is the first area to watch for rejection or break
Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) and ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read