XAG/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Thursday, 1 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the XAG/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:05 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after Monday's drop · RSI 58 · price 60.995
Lower highs from 61.71 meeting higher lows from 59.95 in a narrowing consolidation.
The week's damage came in Monday's Asia session, a slide from the 64.01 weekly open to 60.74 as higher oil, Treasury yields and a firm USD hit silver. Since then price has held a 59.95–61.71 band. Lower highs from the tue high and thu high are converging with higher lows off Thursday's false break of the $60 handle at the week low. Price sits near 61.00, just above the ema20 near 60.83 and the 23.6% retracement of the monday drop, with RSI(14) near 58. The soft PCE print on Wednesday did not hold a bounce while yields stayed near 5.3%.
Support: 60.83, 60.35, 59.95
Resistance: 61.41, 61.71, 62.00
What it said to watch
US jobs report Fri 2 Oct 12:30 GMT (NFP f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read
H1 close above the lower highs trendline and the 61.41 thu high opens the 61.71 tue high and 62.00 former supp
Failure to hold the 60.35 higher low exposes the 59.95 week low and the $60 handle again
Loss of the ema20 near 60.83 returns price to the lower half of the consolidation
Lower highs against higher lows, compressing between 59.95 and 61.80.
Monday's Asia-to-London plunge from 64.0 set the week's tone. Since then XAGUSD has compressed beneath the Monday high, with lower highs from Tuesday's 61.71 test of the fib 38.2 and higher lows off the 59.95 week low. Wednesday's PCE spike to 61.56 was faded, and Thursday's hot ISM Prices Paid knocked price off the Thursday high area back to the 60.30 swing low; it now sits marginally above a flat EMA20 near 60.87 with RSI(14) neutral around 53.
Support: 60.87, 60.30, 59.95
Resistance: 61.41, 61.71
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-highs trendline (~61.20) and the 61.41 Thursday high breaks the descending sequence, with the fib 38.2 at 61.71 next
Failure to hold the 60.30 swing low, then the 59.95 week low, would resume the downtrend from Monday and break the higher lows
US NFP Fri 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read
Sustained trade back below EMA20 near 60.87 returns price to the lower half of the consolidation
21:08 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after Monday drop · RSI 51 · price 60.98
Post-impulse pennant: lower highs vs higher lows.
Monday's Asia-to-London selloff from 64.08 to below 61.00 set the week's direction. Since then XAGUSD has compressed between the 61.71 range top and the 59.95 week low, with lower highs at 61.71, 61.56, 61.41 and 61.31 against higher lows off Thursday's Asia false break below 60.00. Wednesday's PCE spike was faded, and Thursday's hot ISM Prices Paid drove a NY-session drop to 60.35 that was bought back above the ema20, leaving RSI(14) neutral near 51 and price sitting on the 23.6% retrace of the Monday drop.
Support: 60.30, 59.95
Resistance: 61.31, 61.71, 62.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 61.31 lower high breaks the lower highs trendline and opens the 61.71 range top
Failure to hold the 60.30 swing low and the higher lows trendline exposes the 59.95 week low and the 60.00 handle
A move through the 61.71 range top brings 62.00 into view. This is prior support and sits near the 50% retrace of the Monday drop
US NFP Fri 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 61.71 against a 59.95–60.35 floor.
Monday's Asia and London sessions did the week's damage: a slide from the 64.08 open to 60.74, driven by oil, Hormuz tensions and higher yields. Since then H1 has compressed into a lower-highs sequence from the 61.71 range top (61.56, 61.41, 61.30), while Thursday's Asia dip to the 59.95 week low reversed quickly, leaving higher lows near 60.30 and 60.35. The ISM prices-paid jump knocked price from the 61.30 lower high back to 60.35 in NY hours, and it now sits at 60.96 just above a flat ema20 (60.81) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) neutral near 50 and the range top capped by the fib 38.2% of the drop.
Support: 60.81, 60.30, 59.95
Resistance: 61.30, 61.71, 62.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 61.30 lower high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the compression and exposes the 61.71 range top
Acceptance above 61.71 opens the path toward 62.00 prior supp, the former support from Monday's drop
Failure to hold the 60.30 higher low, then the 59.95 week low, resumes the downtrend below the $60 handle
Fed speakers Bowman, Williams and Cook tonight could shift yields and this read
US September NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% m/m) is the next catalyst for a break of the range
Post-impulse range 59.95–61.71, lower highs against higher lows.
The week's dominant leg came through Monday's Asia and London sessions, with silver sliding from the 64.01 weekly open to 60.74 as 10y yields and the dollar pushed higher. Since then H1 has compressed inside a 59.95–61.71 range, with lower highs at 61.71, 61.56, 61.41 and 61.31 capping near the 38.2% of the Monday sell-off. Wednesday's PCE spike to 61.56 in the NY session reversed into the 59.95 week low, and higher lows have since formed off that level and the 60.30 swing low. Price sits flat on EMA(20) and just below EMA(50), and RSI(14) is near 49, mid-range.
Support: 60.30, 59.946
Resistance: 61.314, 61.712, 62.00
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 61.31 lower high breaks the descending lower-highs line and the compression read
Failure to hold the 60.30 swing low exposes the 59.95 week low and the 60.00 psych level
A recovery through the 61.71 range top brings the 62.00 broken support into view
Fed's Bowman (19:00 UTC), Williams and Cook (19:30 UTC), then US NFP on Fri at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Monday's Asia-session slide from the 64.08 weekly open set the tone, and price has since compressed into a 59.95–61.71 consolidation with lower highs at 61.71, 61.56 and 61.31. Wednesday's soft-PCE spike to 61.56 faded through the NY session as yields climbed, and today's hot ISM Prices Paid pushed the NY rebound back from 61.31 toward the 60.30 swing low. Price sits just below EMA(20) near 60.78 with RSI(14) in the low 40s; the Asia-session false break of the 59.95 week low was reclaimed, but rallies keep stalling well under the range top.
Support: 60.30, 59.946
Resistance: 60.78, 61.314, 61.712
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 61.31 lower high breaks the descending-highs line and brings the 61.71 range top into view
Failure to hold the 60.30 swing low exposes the 59.95 week low and the $60.00 handle
EMA(20) near 60.78 continuing to cap hourly closes keeps the lower-high sequence intact
US NFP Fri 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; Fed's Bowman (19:00) and Williams/Cook (19:30 GMT) come first today
Lower highs pressing into a flat 59.95–60.30 floor after Monday's impulse lower.
Monday's slide from the 64.08 open to 60.6 set the week's direction. Since Tuesday, price has held a 59.95–61.71 band. Highs have stepped lower each time: the 61.71 range top in Wednesday's Asia session, 61.56 on the soft-PCE spike, then 61.41 and today's 61.31 lower high, with the cap sitting close to the 38.2% retracement of Monday's drop. Today's NY bounce faded after the hot ISM Prices Paid print as yields pressed higher. Price sits back below EMA(20) near 60.75 with RSI(14) around 41, while the 60.30 swing low and the 59.95 week low continue to absorb dips.
Support: 60.30, 59.946
Resistance: 60.75, 61.314, 61.712
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 60.30 swing low and the 59.95 week low extends the lower-low sequence beneath 60.00
Close above the lower-highs trendline and the 61.31 lower high breaks the descending sequence; the 61.71 range top is the next reference
Holding back above EMA(20) at 60.75 would neutralise today's NY rejection
Fed speakers today (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams/Cook) and Friday's NFP at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Monday's selloff from the 64.08 week-open high to 60.94 set the tone. Since then price has compressed between a 60.00–60.30 floor and a falling trendline of lower highs at 61.71, 61.56, 61.41 and 61.31, all capped below the 38.2% retrace of that move. Wednesday's soft core PCE spike to 61.56 faded to 60.03 in the NY session, and the Asia-session 59.95 week low drew two rebounds back to the trendline. Today's hot ISM Prices Paid then pushed price back below the ema20 toward the 60.30 swing low, with RSI(14) near 44 showing no divergence at the lows.
Support: 60.30, 59.946
Resistance: 61.31, 61.803
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 60.30 swing low and the 59.95 week low would break the floor of the descending-triangle shape
H1 close above the trendline near 61.25 and the ema20 breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the monday high at 61.80
Fed speakers from 17:30 GMT today and NFP Fri 12:30 GMT (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
15:05 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into a range · RSI 48 · price 60.696
Lower highs since Monday, lows compressing near 60.00.
Silver has printed lower highs since Monday's drop from the 64.08 week open, with the lower high at 61.71, Wednesday's soft-PCE spike to 61.56 and today's 61.41 day high all capped under a descending line. Since then price has rotated between the 59.95 week low and the London low at 60.30. The NY-session push to 61.31 faded after the hot ISM Prices Paid print, and price is back below the EMA(20) near 60.80 with RSI(14) flat around 48.
Support: 60.30, 59.95
Resistance: 60.80, 61.41, 61.71
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 61.41 day high and the lower-highs line would break the week's descending sequence; the 61.71 lower high and the 38.2% of Monday's drop near 61.53 sit just above
Failure to hold the 60.30 london low exposes the 59.95 week low and the 60.00 floor
Price holding below the ema20 near 60.80 keeps the rotation in the lower half of the range
Fed speakers from 17:30 GMT today and Friday's 12:30 GMT NFP (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
Monday's slide from the 64.01 weekly open ran through Asia into London, and H1 has since compressed below the 61.80 range top. That level is the 38.2% of the selloff from Friday's 64.79 high, and the range shows lower highs at 61.80, 61.71, 61.56, 61.41 and today's 61.31 lower high against lows clustered at the 60.30 tue/thu low. The soft-PCE spike Wednesday was sold through NY hours as record yields dominated, and today's Asia dip to the 59.95 week low was a quick false break below 60.00. Price is now pivoting on ema20 near 60.84, just under EMA(50) around 60.99, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 60.84, 60.30, 59.95
Resistance: 61.31, 61.80, 62.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower highs trendline and the 61.31 lower high breaks the compression and exposes the 61.80 range top
62.00 old support, broken Monday, sits above the range top as the next structural cap
Failure to hold the 60.30 tue/thu low on a closing basis reopens the 59.95 week low and the 60.00 handle
Losing ema20 at 60.84 returns price to the lower half of the range
ISM Manufacturing just released at 14:00 GMT, Fed speakers this evening and Friday's NFP (f/c 90K, 12:30 GMT) could materially shift this read
Monday's Asia-into-London slide from 64.08 broke 62.00 old support and set the week's tone. Since Tuesday price has been boxed between the 59.95 week low and the 61.71 range top, with each rally capping lower (61.71, 61.56, 61.41) along a lower-highs line. Wednesday's soft PCE spiked silver to 61.56 before NY hours sold it back to 60.03 as yields printed fresh highs. Today's false break below 60.00 in Asia was bought back to 61.10, now above EMA(20) at 60.83 and fractionally above EMA(50) near 61.00, with RSI(14) neutral at 53.
Support: 60.83, 60.30, 59.946
Resistance: 61.413, 61.712, 62.00
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing, Prices Paid and Waller at 14:00 GMT could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 61.41 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 61.71 range top in play
Acceptance above 61.71 exposes 62.00 old support, which aligns with the 50% retracement of the Monday slide
Loss of EMA(20) at 60.83, then the 60.30 range floor, reopens the 59.95 week low
H1 close below the 59.95 week low ends the range and resumes Monday's downtrend
12:06 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling in a range · RSI 56 · price 61.072
Lower highs inside a 60.00–61.80 range after Monday's flush.
Monday's Asia-session plunge from the 64.01 weekly open gave way to a 60.00–61.80 range. Inside it, lower highs at 61.71, 61.56 and the 61.41 thu high trace a descending trendline. Wednesday's soft-PCE spike to 61.56 reversed through NY hours as yields pushed to two-decade highs. Thursday's Asia dip to the 59.95 week low was reclaimed, and London then printed a higher low at 60.30. Price is back above EMA(20) and EMA(50) at 61.07, pressing the 23.6% fib of the Friday high to week low move near 61.16, with RSI(14) in the mid-50s.
Support: 60.30, 59.95
Resistance: 61.41, 61.80
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 61.41 thu high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 61.80 range top back in focus
Failure to hold the 60.30 higher low reopens the 59.95 week low and the 60.00 round number
Jobless claims at 12:30 GMT, then ISM Manufacturing with Fed's Waller at 14:00 GMT, could materially shift this read
Monday's slide from the 64.0 weekly open broke through $62 and has since compressed into a 59.95–61.71 range. Lower highs at the 61.71 wed high, 61.56 and the 61.41 thu high have capped each bounce, and all sit above the 23.6% retracement of the sell-off from Friday's 65.08 high. The PCE miss lifted price to 61.56 into Wednesday's NY session, but the move was sold to 60.03 as yields pushed higher. Today's Asia dip under 60.00 to the 59.95 week low was rejected, and the London pullback held the 60.30 swing low. Price now sits on the ema20 near 60.76, just under the ema50 at 61.00, with RSI(14) flat near 51.
Support: 60.76, 60.30, 59.95
Resistance: 61.00, 61.41, 61.71
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 61.41 thu high breaks the lower-high sequence and the trendline from the 61.71 wed high
Failure to hold the 60.30 swing low reopens the 59.95 week low and the 60.00 handle
Repeated rejection at the ema50 near 61.00 keeps the price compressed below the sell-off fib 23.6%
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read, with jobless claims at 12:30 UTC
Lower highs from 61.71 pressing into a 59.95–60.30 base.
Silver has printed a sequence of lower highs since Monday's collapse from 64.08, which started in Asia and extended into London. Wednesday's PCE spike to 61.56 was sold within NY hours, and today's Asia rebound from the 59.95 week low met rejection at the 61.41 today high into the London open, roughly at the 23.6%–38.2% band of the weekly drop fib (60.92–61.53). Price now sits below EMA(20) near 60.69 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) at 42, holding just above the Tuesday low at 60.29 as 10y yields near 5.3% cap recoveries.
Support: 60.29, 59.95
Resistance: 60.69, 61.41, 61.71
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 59.95 week low extends the lower-low sequence
Failure to hold the tuesday low at 60.29 puts the 60.00 handle back in play
H1 close above the lower-high trendline and the 61.41 today high, then the 61.71 wed high, breaks the descending structure
Jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing with Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:08 UTC
Downtrend, compressing in a descending channel · RSI 41 · price 60.385
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's gap lower; descending channel 59.9–61.7.
The week opened on a gap down at 64.01, and Monday's Asia-into-London slide to 60.94 set the tone as 10y yields hit 19-year highs. Since then price has carved a descending channel with lower highs at 61.80, 61.71, 61.56 and 61.41. Wednesday's soft-PCE pop to 61.56 faded through NY hours on the GDP and ADP beats. Today's Asia session printed the 59.95 week low, rebounded to the 61.41 lower high, then met rejection into the London open back toward the 60.29 tuesday low. Price sits below EMA(20) at 60.72 and EMA(50) near 61.00, with RSI(14) at 41. The 38.2% retracement of the selloff fib (~61.79) lines up with Monday's 61.80 high and the channel top.
Support: 60.29, 59.95
Resistance: 60.72, 61.00, 61.41
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 60.29 tuesday low exposes the 59.95 week low and the $60 handle near the channel base
Reclaiming ema20 at 60.72 and then ema50 near 61.00 would ease the downside structure
A break above the 61.41 lower high and the channel top invalidates the descending channel read
ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 GMT (f/c 55, prices paid 72.3) and Fed's Waller could materially shift this read; jobless claims at 12:30 GMT is an earlier catalyst
Post-collapse range 59.95–61.71 with lower highs and lower lows.
Monday's drop from the 64.01 weekly open ran through Asia and London on a firm USD and high yields. Since then price has compressed into a 59.95–61.71 band, with lower highs at the 61.71 wed high, 61.56 and the 61.41 day high, and the bounces have stalled near the 38.2% retrace of Monday's drop. Wednesday's NY session spiked on the soft PCE miss, but the move reversed as strong GDP and Chicago PMI beats lifted the dollar. Today's Asia session dip below 60.00 to the 59.95 week low was reclaimed, then selling at London open pulled price back to the 60.46 london low, just under the ema20 near 60.77.
Support: 60.462, 60.028, 59.946
Resistance: 60.77, 61.413, 61.712
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 61.41 day high breaks the lower-highs line; the 61.71 wed high is the next cap
Failure to hold the 60.46 london low exposes the 60.03 wed low and 59.95 week low
H1 close below the 59.95 week low turns the 60.00 false break into a fresh lower-low
Reclaim and hold of the ema20 at 60.77 would neutralise the intraday lower-high sequence
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC alongside Waller, then Williams at 19:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Silver gapped below Friday's close at the weekly open and lost roughly 3.3 dollars from 64.08 through Monday's Asia and London sessions, cutting through 62.00. The PCE miss spiked price to 61.56 during Wednesday's NY session, but the move faded to 60.03 into the NY close. Asia then swept the 60.00 psych to a 59.95 week low below the 60.29 tuesday low and rebounded to a 61.41 session high, a third lower high under the 61.71 tuesday high. Price is now back near the 61.00 pivot, just above EMA(20) at 60.81 and holding near the 23.6% retracement of the week's drop, while EMA(50) near 61.06 caps.
Support: 60.81, 60.29, 59.95
Resistance: 61.41, 61.71, 62.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 61.41 session high breaks the lower-highs trendline; 61.71 tuesday high and 62.00 broken support sit above
Failure to hold EMA(20) at 60.81 reopens the 60.29 tuesday low and the 59.95 week low
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 14:00 GMT, with Waller at the same time, could materially shift this read; Jobless Claims 12:30 GMT first
06:06 UTC
Downtrend, short-term rebound testing range top · RSI 64 · price 61.373
Post-breakdown range 59.95–61.71 capped by lower highs.
Silver opened the week near 64.08 and slid through 62.00 support in Monday's Asia-London hours. Since then it has ranged 60.00–61.71 under a lower-high line, and Wednesday's spike to 61.56 on the soft PCE miss was rejected through NY hours down to 60.03, as yields and a firm USD offset the dovish print. Thursday's Asia dip to a 59.95 week low was a false break of the 60 round number and reversed into a rally back above the 61 pivot, EMA(20) near 60.83 and EMA(50) near 61.08, with RSI(14) at 64. Price is now pressing the lower-high line near 61.41, just under Tuesday's high at 61.51, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the week's drop.
Support: 61.00, 60.83, 59.946
Resistance: 61.508, 61.712, 62.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 61.51 tue high (38.2% fib) breaks the lower-high line and opens the 61.71 wed high, then 62.00 broken support
Slip back below the 61 pivot and ema20 near 60.83 returns price to the middle of the range
H1 close below the 59.95 week low turns the false break into a range break lower
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid plus Waller at 14:00 GMT, after claims at 12:30 GMT, could materially shift this read
05:07 UTC
Downtrend, basing inside a range · RSI 60 · price 61.236
Lower highs within a 59.95–61.80 range after Monday's impulse lower.
Silver gapped lower at Monday's open and shed about $3 through the Asia and London sessions. Since then it has been confined to a range capped by lower highs at 61.80, 61.71 and the 61.56 pce spike, which reversed in the NY session as strong GDP and Chicago PMI offset the soft core PCE print. Today's Asia-session dip to a 59.95 week low was a false break below $60 that has since reclaimed the ema20 at 60.76 and the ema50/61.00 pivot, with RSI(14) lifting to around 60, while the 38.2% retracement of the Monday drop sits near 61.53.
Support: 61.00, 60.76, 59.95
Resistance: 61.56, 61.80, 62.00
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below 61.00 and the ema50 would return price to the lower half of the range
A break of the lower highs trendline near 61.47 and the 61.56 pce spike opens the 61.80 range top, then the 62.00 round number
Failure to hold the 59.95 week low would turn the false break into a fresh lower low
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC, plus Waller and Williams later in the NY session, could materially shift this read
Monday's slide from the 64.01 weekly open ran from Asia into London and broke the 62.00 broken floor. Every recovery since has printed lower highs: 61.80 on Monday, then the 61.71 Wed high, then the 61.56 PCE spike, which reversed through NY hours as GDP and Chicago PMI beats swamped the soft core print. Today's Asian session dipped to a 59.95 week low below 60.00, then snapped back above EMA(20) near 60.70 and the 23.6% fib, with RSI(14) lifting to ~60 as price tests the 61.00 round number area, where EMA(50) also sits.
Support: 61.00, 60.70, 59.946
Resistance: 61.562, 61.712, 62.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 61.56 pce spike (38.2% fib) and the 61.71 wed high breaks the lower highs line; the 62.00 broken floor sits at the 50% retracement
Slip back below the 61.00 round number and the ema20 near 60.70 undercuts the false break of 60.00
A fresh print under the 59.95 week low extends the lower-low sequence
Jobless claims 12:30 GMT, then ISM Manufacturing and Fed's Waller at 14:00 GMT, could materially shift this read
Monday's gap below Friday's 64.32 close turned into a slide of more than three dollars through the 62.00 broken floor. Since then price has held a 60.00–61.71 consolidation, with lower highs at the 61.71 range top and the 61.56 PCE spike, which faded to 60.03 in the NY session as strong GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI outweighed the soft core PCE. Thursday's Asia-session dip to the 59.95 week low below 60.00 reversed sharply to 61.00, putting price back above EMA(20) at 60.64 and pressing EMA(50) near 60.96 with RSI(14) at 57.
Support: 60.64, 60.29, 59.95
Resistance: 61.56, 61.71, 62.00
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 61.56 PCE spike and the 61.71 range top breaks the lower-highs trendline. The 38.2% level of the week drop fib (61.53) sits in the same zone, with the 62.00 broken floor above.
A return below EMA(20) at 60.64 and the 60.29 Tuesday low would expose the 59.95 week low and the 60.00 round number again.
Jobless claims (12:30 GMT) and ISM Manufacturing with Prices Paid (14:00 GMT, alongside Waller) could materially shift this read.
02:06 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs and lower lows since Monday · RSI 52 · price 60.703
Descending channel below the 61.71 Wed high, testing round number 60.00.
Silver fell from Friday's 65.08 peak through Monday's Asia-to-London collapse below 62.00, and it has printed lower highs and lower lows inside a descending channel since. Wednesday's PCE spike to 61.56 was sold through NY hours as beats in GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI firmed yields, keeping price below the wed high at 61.71 and under the 61.16 23.6% retracement of the week drop. Asia today extended to a 59.95 week low before rebounding to 60.70, back above EMA(20) at 60.58 but still below EMA(50) near 61.02. RSI(14) sits neutral at ~52, with the tue low at 60.29 the nearest floor above the channel base.
Support: 60.58, 60.29, 59.95
Resistance: 61.02, 61.56, 61.71
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the ema20 and the 60.29 tue low reopens the 59.95 week low and the 60.00 round number at the channel base
Acceptance above the ema50 near 61.02 brings the channel top and the 61.56 pce spike back into focus; a break of the 61.71 wed high invalidates the lower-high sequence
Thu Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC), then ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid with Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 61.71; Tue–Wed range broke lower in NY on Wednesday.
Silver has slid from Monday's 64.08 week high. The heaviest selling came in Monday's London and NY sessions, before price based in a 60.29–61.71 range on Tuesday and Wednesday. That range broke in Wednesday's NY session: the softer core PCE spike to the 61.56 PCE high failed, and beats in GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI dragged price to 60.03. Asia then printed a fresh 59.95 week low just under the 60.00 psych level, and price now sits below the old range floor and the EMA(20) near 60.52, with RSI(14) around 38.
Support: 60.00, 59.946
Resistance: 60.289, 60.524, 61.562
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 60.29 range floor and ema20 near 60.52 would ease the lower-low sequence
Sustained trade below the 59.95 week low and 60.00 psych extends the downtrend from Monday
Lower highs line near 61.4–61.5 and the 38.2% fib of the week's sell-off at 61.53 sit just under the 61.56 PCE high; a close above that cluster undermines the downtrend read
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC, alongside Waller, could materially shift this read; Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC first
Lower highs from 61.712; Tuesday low broken, basing 60.03–60.48.
Monday gapped below Friday's 64.318 close and dropped through 62.00 during Asia and London, reaching 60.74 by NY. Tuesday and Wednesday then held a 60.29–61.71 range with lower highs at the 61.712 wed high and the 61.562 pce high. The soft core PCE spike reversed in NY as GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats kept yields firm, and price broke the tue low to a 60.028 week low. Price is now holding a 60.03–60.48 band below the ema20, with RSI(14) near 39 and a measured 23.6% retracement of the 65.08–60.03 move sitting at 61.22.
Support: 60.289, 60.028
Resistance: 60.55, 61.562, 61.712
What it said to watch
Thu 14:00 UTC ISM Manufacturing (f/c 55, Prices Paid f/c 72.3) could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 60.028 week low and 60.00 extends the lower-low sequence
Hourly closes back above the ema20 near 60.55 would mark the first reclaim since the PCE reversal
Close above the 61.562 pce high breaks the lower-high trendline and the downtrend read
Fed speakers (Waller 14:00, Williams 19:30 UTC) alongside Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC