19:08 UTC
Corrective downtrend flattening into a base · RSI 48 · price 66.369
Multi-month range 54.76-70.00 after the Q1 blow-off top; lower highs from 121.63 still intact above.
The parabolic advance that ran from 29 in Q2 2025 to the 121.63 spike high in late January has been unwinding all year, and since June the market has gone sideways in a 54.76-70.00 band — regime is correction-turned-base rather than trend. Price at 66.37 sits just above the w1 ema50 near 64.22 but below EMA20, with the double bottom at 54.76/55.61 defining the range low and 70.00 the range top; this week's 3%+ recovery off 62.30 came as 10y yields and crude rolled over after the Fed's in-line hike to 4%, a squeeze rather than a macro re-rating. Weekly RSI near 48 is mid-range and carries no information at this scale — the structural question is simply which edge of the range breaks.
Support: 64.22, 62.30, 54.76
Resistance: 70.00, 71.54, 80.34
What it said to watch
- A weekly close above 70.00 clears the range top and puts the 71.54 prior high back in focus, with the q2 high at 80.34 the next structural reference
- Loss of the 62.30 swing low and the w1 ema50 at 64.22 on a weekly close re-opens the lower half of the range toward 54.76
- The descending lower-highs line off the 96.37 and 78.81 peaks still caps any recovery attempt
- US flash PMIs Wed 23 Sep and heavy Fedspeak are live risk for the yield path that has driven this range