21:08 UTC
Downtrend since Aug 25 peak, below both EMAs · RSI 39 · price 4,153.60
Lower highs and lower lows from 4696.74; Sept range floor broken.
Gold has printed a five-week sequence of lower highs and lower lows since the 4696.74 peak on Aug 25, and the falling trendline has capped each weekly bounce. Monday's slide broke the 4235–4255 Sept range floor and set an 8-week low at 4110.84, near the 78.6% retracement of the Jun–Aug rally, as long-end US yields pushed to cycle highs. Wednesday's post-PCE bounce stalled at the 4219 pce high. Price now sits below both averages, with EMA20 crossing under a rolling-over EMA50 near 4303 and RSI at 39, soft but not oversold.
Support: 4,110.84, 4,000.00, 3,942.64
Resistance: 4,219.26, 4,235.03
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 8-week low at 4110.84 extends the lower-low chain toward 4000 psych and the 3942.64 june low
- Daily close back above the 4235 range floor and the falling trendline (~4240) would undercut the breakdown read, with EMA50 near 4303 the next test
- Repeated daily failures at the 4219 pce high would confirm that level as the post-breakdown ceiling
- US Sept NFP on Fri Oct 2, 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read via long-end yields and USD