4150–4193 range compressing between a rising and a falling trendline.
Thursday's 4149/4150 double low held twice, in London and again after the ISM print. Highs stepped lower from the 4192.88 day high to 4187.82 and 4186. Gold recovered as yields slid late Thursday, and early Asia has lifted from a 4171.78 session low to a 4182.96 session high, pressing the falling trendline with RSI(14) at 57 and ATR contracting.
Support: 4,171.78, 4,163.32, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,182.96, 4,187.82, 4,192.88
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4183 session high and falling trendline opens the 4187.82 lower high, then the 4192.88 day high
Loss of the 4171.78 session low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 4163.32 swing low
A break below the 4150 double low turns the range read into a range break lower
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (~13h) could materially shift this read; ATR compression points to a thin Asia session ahead of it
23:32 UTC
Two-way, range contracting · RSI 60 · price 4,181.79
Lower highs vs higher lows inside the 4139–4193 day range.
Thursday's 4139–4193 range is contracting. Highs stepped lower from the 4192.9 day high to 4187.8 and a 4186.2 lower high, while the 4150 swing low held three times, including the ISM-driven dip at 14:00 UTC, before gold firmed as yields slid late in NY. Early Asia session has lifted off the 4171.8 asia low to 4182 and is pressing the lower-highs line. RSI(14) is near 60.
Support: 4,171.80, 4,150.10, 4,139.30
Resistance: 4,186.20, 4,192.90, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4186–4188 lower high cluster breaks the contracting range; the 4192.9 day high and 4200 psych level sit above
Loss of the 4171.8 asia low returns price to the late-NY consolidation and opens the way to the 4150 swing low
A break of the 4150 swing low and the higher-lows line exposes the 4139.3 day low
US NFP, AHE and unemployment Fri 12:30 UTC; a hot wage print could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4192.88, higher lows from 4150; Friday Asia pressing range top.
Thursday's 4139–4193 range has compressed. Highs are lower from the 4192.88 day high, and lows are higher off the 4150 double low. The ISM-hour dip to 4150 was bought as Treasury yields slid into NY close, and Friday's Asia session is holding above its 4171.78 Asian low and pressing the 4182.13 late NY high.
Support: 4,171.78, 4,163.32, 4,150.10
Resistance: 4,182.13, 4,186.15, 4,192.88
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4182.13 late NY high exposes the 4186.15 NY high and the lower-highs trendline toward the 4192.88 day high
Failure to hold the 4171.78 Asian low returns focus to the 4163.32 NY swing low, the fib 61.8% zone
Loss of the 4150 double low breaks the higher-lows trendline and the compression read
US NFP and AHE at 12:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read; a hot wage print is the bigger downside risk per yields
23:04 UTC
Sideways, compressing after two-way day · RSI 53 · price 4,178.64
Lower highs from 4192.9 vs higher lows off 4150; tight Asia box.
Early Friday Asia session finds gold boxed between 4171.8 and 4180.2, under a lower-highs line from the 4192.9 day high. NY held the 4149–4150 London low area twice before slipping Treasury yields lifted it back. ATR has contracted into the pre-NFP lull.
Support: 4,171.80, 4,163.30, 4,149.10
Resistance: 4,180.20, 4,187.80, 4,192.90
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4180.2 range top exposes the 4187.8 NY high and the lower-highs line
Loss of the 4171.8 Asia low opens the 4163.3 swing low, the 61.8% of the NY swing
NFP and AHE at 12:30 UTC Fri likely to break the compression; a hot wage print puts the 4149.1 London low back in focus
4150–4193 day range; rising lows meeting lower highs.
Gold defended the 4150 range floor three times through London and NY and has since printed rising lows as yields slid late Thursday. Lower highs from the 4192.88 day high and the 4186 NY high are capping it. Price is sitting at 4176 in a tight 4172–4182 band just after the daily reopen, with ATR contracting into NFP.
Support: 4,171.78, 4,163.32, 4,150.10
Resistance: 4,186.15, 4,192.88
What it said to watch
Close above the 4186 ny high breaks the lower highs line and puts the 4192.88 day high back in play
Loss of the 4171.78 reopen low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 4163 swing low and the 4150 range floor
US NFP / AHE Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR is likely to expand sharply from compressed levels
4150–4193 day range; late-NY coil 4173–4182 now at its base.
London open sold the 4192.88 day high, and the ISM release drove a second test of the 4150 repeat lows. The late-Thursday yield slide lifted price back to a 4186 lower high before NY compressed into a 4173–4182 coil. Early Asia session is sitting on that range low, with RSI(14) neutral near 48 and ATR(14) contracting from NY-hours levels.
Support: 4,171.78, 4,163.32, 4,150.10
Resistance: 4,182.13, 4,187.82, 4,192.88
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4171.8 range low exposes the 4163.3 swing low, the midpoint of the 4150–4186 swing retracement
Close above the 4182 range high and the lower-highs trendline near 4186–4188 breaks the descending cap and puts the 4192.88 day high in play
Repeat lows at 4150 have held four times; a break there would end the range read
US NFP / AHE Fri 12:30 UTC. A hot wage print is the scenario the digest links to a retest of 4150 and lower.
4150–4193 day range; tight 4172–4180 coil after NY close.
The 4192.9 day high, set late in Asia, was sold into London open. Demand held 4150 twice in NY (day low 4149.1), but the 4186.2 lower high keeps a falling resistance line in place. Since NY close, price has coiled in a 4172.4 range floor to 4180.2 range top band, sitting near the 38.2% fib of the 4150–4186 leg, with yields and NFP setting the tone.
Support: 4,172.40, 4,159.80, 4,149.10
Resistance: 4,180.20, 4,186.20, 4,192.90
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 4172.4 range floor exposes the 4159.8 swing low and the 50–61.8% fib zone near 4164–4168
Acceptance above the 4180.2 range top brings the 4186.2 lower high and the falling resistance line into play; a break there targets a retest of the 4192.9 day high
Loss of 4150 (day low) would break the day's floor and end the range read
US NFP and AHE on Fri at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot wage print has the larger downside asymmetry per the macro read
22:04 UTC
Two-way, compressing into the NY close · RSI 56 · price 4,177.24
Lower highs from the Asia high, higher lows off a 4150 double low; tight late-NY range.
Late NY session. Gold is compressing in a 4173.5–4182 range after higher lows at 4159.8 and 4163.3 off the 4149–4150 double low. Lower highs from the 4192.9 Asia high are capping the topside. Every London and NY swing stayed inside the Asia range, with the late firming tracking softer Treasury yields, and ATR(14) has contracted sharply into the close.
Support: 4,173.50, 4,163.30, 4,149.50
Resistance: 4,182.10, 4,187.80, 4,192.90
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4182 range top puts the lower high at 4187.8 and the 4192.9 Asia high back in play
Failure to hold the 4173.5 range low exposes the 4163.3 higher low; a break there breaks the higher-low chain
Loss of the 4150 double low opens the 4139 Asia low
US NFP / AHE Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; thin Asia trade before then
21:47 UTC
Sideways, compressing after two-way NY swings · RSI 56 · price 4,177.24
Higher lows from 4,150 meet lower highs; tight 4,173–4,182 range.
Asia ran from 4,139 to the 4,192.88 day high before London sold the london leg down to the 4,149 london low. NY swung two-way around the hot ISM prices paid print, then firmed as yields slid. Higher lows at 4,150, 4,160 and the 4,163 higher low, plus lower highs from the 4,187.82 ny high, have compressed price into a 4,173–4,182 range late in NY. That range sits near the 61.8% retrace of the london leg.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4,182 range high opens the 4,187.82 ny high and 4,192.88 day high
Loss of the 4,173 range low exposes the 4,163 higher low; failure there unwinds the NY higher-low sequence
Thin after-NY-close trade; range likely holds until Asia unless the range high or range low gives
US NFP and AHE Fri 12:30 UTC: a hot wage print risks a return to the 4,149 london low area
21:32 UTC
Sideways, lower highs into a flat base · RSI 55 · price 4,177.24
24h range 4139–4193; highs stepping lower over a 4150 floor, late-NY compression 4173–4182.
The Asian high at 4192.88 capped the day, with lower highs at 4187.82 and 4186.15 through London and NY. The 4150 floor held three times, including through the firm claims and hot ISM prices paid data. Late NY is compressing between the 4173.40 late low and the 4182.13 late high into the daily close, RSI(14) neutral near 55 and EMA20/EMA50 flattening beneath price.
Support: 4,173.40, 4,163.32, 4,150.10
Resistance: 4,182.13, 4,186.15, 4,192.88
What it said to watch
Close above the 4182.13 late high breaks the compression; acceptance above the lower highs at 4186–4188 opens the 4192.88 Asian high
Loss of the 4173.40 late low exposes the 4163.32 NY swing low
A break of the 4150 floor ends the day's range read
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read
Day range 4139–4193. NY rebounded from the 4150 floor to 4186, now compressing 4173–4180..
The 4150 floor held twice, in London and again after the ISM release (hot Prices Paid). The NY swing then lifted gold to a 4186 NY high before supply capped it, consistent with yield-driven pressure into NFP. Price is now coiling in a tight 4173–4180 range into the daily close, below the 4193 Asia high, with a higher low at 4163 on the NY rising-low line.
Support: 4,173.40, 4,163.30, 4,150.10
Resistance: 4,180.40, 4,186.20, 4,192.90
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4180 range top opens a retest of the 4186 NY high, with the 4193 Asia high above
Break of the 4173 range low exposes the 4163 higher low and the NY rising-low trendline
Failure to hold the 4150 floor confirms a lower low on the day
A deep retrace of the 4150–4186 NY swing would undo the NY rebound
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) is likely to resolve the current range
Lower highs from 4192.88 against higher lows from 4150.10; tight post-NY range.
Asia dipped to 4139 and then ran to the 4192.88 day high, short of the $4,200 zone flagged in the market context. London unwound the move to 4149, and NY whipsawed on claims and the hot ISM Prices Paid but held the 4150 ny floor twice. Since then the higher low at 4163.3 and the 4186.2 lower high have squeezed price into a 4173–4180 late range after NY close, with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 4,173.40, 4,163.30, 4,150.10
Resistance: 4,180.20, 4,186.20, 4,192.90
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4180.2 range top, then the 4186.2 lower high, breaks the lower-highs line; the 4192.9 day high and $4,200 sit above
Failure to hold the 4173.4 late range low exposes the 4163.3 higher low and the rising support line
Loss of the 4150.1 ny floor breaks the intraday range to the downside
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% m/m) is likely to break this compression
Lower highs into a flat 4150 base; tight compression late NY.
Late NY session: gold is compressing at 4173–4180 inside a 4150–4193 day range. Highs are stepping lower from the 4192.88 asian high to 4187.8 and the 4186 NY high, while the 4150 day low has held twice, most recently after the hot ISM Prices Paid flush at 14:00 UTC. Price is holding near the 38.2% of the NY swing (4150→4186) with RSI(14) ~54 and both EMAs flat just below, quiet ahead of NFP.
Support: 4,173.40, 4,159.80, 4,150.10
Resistance: 4,186.15, 4,192.88
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4186 NY high breaks the lower-highs line; 4192.88 asian high is next
Loss of the 4173.4 range floor exposes the 4159.8 swing low
Break below the 4150 day low ends the range read
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read
20:32 UTC
Sideways, lower highs into tight range · RSI 55 · price 4,175.68
Day range 4150–4193 with lower highs, late-NY compression.
The Asia rally to the 4192.88 day high was sold through London, and the 4150 floor held three times. The 14:00 UTC ISM drop, with hot Prices Paid and a bid USD, also stopped at that floor, while each rebound has printed a lower high (4187.82, then 4186.15). Late NY is compressing between the 4173.40 range low and the 4182.13 range high, just above EMA20, with ATR cooling.
Support: 4,173.40, 4,163.32, 4,150.10
Resistance: 4,182.13, 4,187.82, 4,192.88
What it said to watch
Close above 4182.13 range high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the compression toward 4187.82–4192.88
Loss of 4173.40 range low exposes the 4163.32 swing low, then the 4150 floor
A break of the 4150 floor would undo the triple-hold structure
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 4150 against lower highs from 4192.88, coiling 4173–4180.
Asia ran to the 4192.88 Asian high before London open sold it back to the 4149–4150 range floor. NY swung 4150–4187 around the hot ISM Prices Paid print, and since then each lower high has met a higher low (4163, then the 4173 late low). Price is coiling near 4178 in thin post-NY hours, RSI(14) around 61.
Support: 4,173.40, 4,163.32, 4,150.10
Resistance: 4,186.15, 4,192.88, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4186 lower high breaks the compression, with the 4192.88 Asian high and 4200 psych level next
Failure to hold the 4173 late low, then the 4163 higher low, reopens the 4150 range floor
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
20:04 UTC
Intraday range, compressing after London selloff · RSI 55 · price 4,178.21
NY range 4150–4188, higher lows vs lower highs into late-session coil.
London unwound the Asian rally from the 4192.88 asian high to 4149.08. NY then rotated inside a 4150–4188 range, with demand holding the 4150 ny low twice through the ISM swings while highs eased from the 4187.82 ny high. Price is now coiled near 4178, just above the 61.8% retrace of the london drop, with higher lows building beneath and no visible reaction to the late Fedspeak.
Support: 4,173.40, 4,163.32, 4,150.10
Resistance: 4,182.13, 4,187.82, 4,192.88
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4182.13 lower high and the 4187.82 ny high would break the compression and expose the 4192.88 asian high
Loss of the 4173.40 late ny low, then the 4163.32 higher low, breaks the higher-lows chain and reopens the 4150 ny low
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
19:47 UTC
Range-bound, compressing late NY · RSI 57 · price 4,176.61
Lower highs from 4192.88 vs rising lows from 4150.10, coiling at 4173–4182.
London open sold the 4192.88 Asia high down to a 4149.08 day low. The ISM prices-paid beat drove a 14:00 UTC flush to 4151.52, but 4150 held again at 15:00. Since then rising lows (4163.32 higher low, 4173.40 swing low) and a 4182.13 lower high have squeezed price into a tight late-NY coil above EMA20/50, with RSI near 57.
Support: 4,173.40, 4,163.32, 4,149.08
Resistance: 4,182.13, 4,187.82, 4,192.88
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4182.13 lower high breaks the compression and exposes the 4187.82 ny high, then the 4192.88 asia high
Loss of the 4173.40 swing low and the 4163.32 higher low puts the rising-lows trendline at risk and reopens the 4149.08 day low
Williams/Cook Fedspeak underway late NY could jolt this coil
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) is the next scheduled range catalyst
19:32 UTC
Sideways, range-bound into late NY · RSI 58 · price 4,176.83
4150–4188 range since London open; lower highs above, higher low at 4163.
Gold has held a 4150–4188 range since the London open sold off the 4192.88 Asian high. The 4150 range floor held on three tests, including the 14:00 UTC hot ISM Prices Paid drop, while the 17:30 UTC lower high at 4186 was rejected. Price is compressing near 4177 in late NY after a higher low at 4163, with RSI(14) neutral around 58.
Support: 4,163.32, 4,150.10, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,186.15, 4,192.88
What it said to watch
Williams and Cook remarks at 19:30 UTC land on the current bar and could break the compression
M15 close above the 4186 lower high and the 4192.88 Asian high breaks the range-top sequence
Loss of the 4163 higher low exposes the 4150 range floor again; a break there opens the 4139 Asian low
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) is the next major catalyst for range resolution
Late NY session: gold is compressing inside the 4149–4193 day range. Lows have stepped higher off the 4150 base since the drop after the hot ISM Prices Paid print, with the latest higher low at 4163.32 and a swing low at 4171.66. Those rising lows are meeting a lower-high sequence from the 4192.88 day high down to the 4186 ny high, with RSI(14) near 58 and price above both EMAs.
Support: 4,171.66, 4,163.32, 4,149.08
Resistance: 4,186.15, 4,192.88
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4163.32 higher low breaks the rising-lows trendline and reopens the 4149 day low
Loss of the 4171.66 swing low would turn the latest higher low into a range-floor test
Close above the 4186 ny high exposes the 4192.88 day high; rejection there extends the lower-high sequence
Fedspeak (Bowman 19:00 UTC, Williams and Cook 19:30 UTC) is under way and could jolt the compression
Fri 12:30 UTC NFP (f/c 90K) is the next major catalyst for the range
Contracting range 4150–4193, lower highs vs higher lows.
Gold has held a 4150–4193 range since the Asian high at 4192.9. The NY selloff on the hot ISM Prices Paid stalled at the 4150 day low, and a 17:30 UTC push into 4186 was rejected at the session high. Higher lows at 4159.8 and 4163.3 are compressing price toward 4177 late in NY hours, with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 4,163.30, 4,150.10
Resistance: 4,186.20, 4,192.90
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4186 session high breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the 4192.9 day high
Loss of the 4163.3 higher low breaks the higher-lows line and puts the 4150 day low back in play
Bowman (19:00 UTC), Williams and Cook (19:30 UTC) could break the compression
Friday's 12:30 UTC NFP (f/c 90K) is the larger event risk for the 4150–4193 range
4150–4188 range inside Asian range, HL chain off 4150.
Late NY session, gold sits inside the 4150–4188 range built since London and below the Asian high at 4192.88, with lower highs capping each push. Demand held the range low at 4150 twice, including after the 14:00 UTC drop on the hot ISM Prices Paid, and a higher low at 4163.32 along a rising trendline has lifted price back toward the range top. The double bottom near 4150 stays unconfirmed below 4188.
Support: 4,163.32, 4,150.10
Resistance: 4,187.82, 4,192.88
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4188 range top and the lower highs line confirms the double bottom and opens the Asian high at 4192.88
Break of the 4163.32 higher low and rising trendline returns the 4150 range low into play
Fed's Bowman at 19:00 UTC and Williams/Cook at 19:30 UTC could break the session range
Fri 12:30 UTC NFP (f/c 90K) and AHE is the next major catalyst for the range
18:32 UTC
Range-bound, NY higher lows building · RSI 57 · price 4,171.75
4150–4188 range; higher lows in NY below 4180 swing high.
Gold has rotated inside 4150–4188 since the Asian push to the 4192.9 asian high faded. The range floor held four times through London and NY, including the 14:30 UTC post-ISM low at 4150.1 after the hot prices-paid print kept yields firm. NY then built a higher-low chain, with the 18:00 UTC higher low at 4163.3 sitting on the 61.8% fib of the 4150–4186 leg, while the 4186 test met rejection and the 4180 swing high capped the latest bounce late in the NY session.
Support: 4,163.30, 4,150.10, 4,139.30
Resistance: 4,180.40, 4,187.80, 4,192.90
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 4163 higher low breaks the NY higher-lows trendline and turns focus back to the 4150 range floor
Close above the 4188 session high exposes the 4192.9 asian high and the 4200 cap
Loss of the 4150 range floor opens the 4139 asian low
Friday NFP at 12:30 UTC is the larger event risk for range resolution
18:17 UTC
Sideways, lower highs into a flat floor · RSI 55 · price 4,171.32
4150–4187 range inside Asian range, highs compressing.
Gold has stayed inside the Asian range all day. The asian high at 4192.9 gave way to lower highs at 4187.8 in London and 4186.2 late in NY. The 4150 range floor held four times through London and NY, including the chop after the hot ISM Prices Paid print. Price sits mid-range near 4171 just above a fresh 4163 swing low, with RSI(14) neutral around 55.
Support: 4,163.30, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,186.20, 4,192.90
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4186 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 4192.9 asian high back in play
Loss of the 4163 swing low turns focus back to the 4150 range floor; a close below it ends the range read
Fed Bowman at 19:00 UTC and Williams/Cook at 19:30 UTC could materially shift this read, with yields driving gold
18:04 UTC
Sideways, late-NY range · RSI 50 · price 4,167.73
Day held inside Asian range; NY range 4150–4186 with a higher low at 4160.
Gold has spent the day inside the 4139–4193 Asian range. NY held a 4150 range floor through three tests as ISM prices paid kept the USD bid, then the 17:30 UTC push was rejected at the 4186 range top. Price now sits at the 50% of the 4150–4186 leg, on flat EMAs with RSI(14) near 50 and the 4160 swing low as the latest higher low.
Support: 4,159.80, 4,150.10, 4,139.30
Resistance: 4,186.20, 4,192.90
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4159.8 swing low breaks the higher low line and reopens the 4150 range floor
Loss of the 4150 range floor exposes the 4139 Asian low
Close above the 4186 range top brings the 4192.9 Asian high into play
Fed's Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) could materially shift this read; NFP Fri 12:30 UTC
17:47 UTC
Range, recovering off NY lows · RSI 62 · price 4,177.36
4150–4188 range, higher low at 4159.76 off double base at 4150.
Late NY session. The ISM prices-paid beat knocked gold to the 4150 ny low twice, and a higher swing low at 4159.76 then lifted it to 4186.15 around Jefferson's remarks. That spike was rejected just under the 4187.82 london high and leaves price mid-range near 4177, RSI(14) ~62, still inside the 4139–4193 session range.
Support: 4,159.76, 4,150.10
Resistance: 4,187.82, 4,192.88
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4187.82 london high puts the 4192.88 session high in play and breaks the range top
Loss of the 4159.76 swing low breaks the rising support and exposes the 4150.10 ny low
Fed's Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) could shift the read late in the session
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) is the next major volatility event
17:32 UTC
Intraday range, rebounding from range floor · RSI 63 · price 4,181.84
4150–4193 day range; lower highs on top, triple-tested 4150 floor, rising lows since 15:00 UTC.
Gold is rotating inside a 4150–4193 day range. London open sold off from the Asian day high at 4192.9, and NY dips after the hot ISM prices-paid print held the 4150 day low three times. After London close price has climbed back to retest the 4187.8 lower high, with RSI(14) near 63 and closes above the 4176.7 prior high.
Support: 4,176.70, 4,159.80, 4,150.10
Resistance: 4,187.80, 4,192.90
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4187.8 lower high breaks the lower-high line and puts the 4192.9 day high in play
Loss of the 4176.7 prior high, then the rising lows near the 4159.8 swing low, returns price to the range floor
Bowman at 19:00 and Williams/Cook at 19:30 UTC could move yields and shift this read ahead of Friday's NFP
London sold the 4192.88 Asian high back to 4149. The 4187.82 lower high in the London-NY transition preceded a choppy 4150–4177 NY range around the hot ISM prices paid. Price is retesting the ny high at 4176.71, which lines up with the fib 61.8% of the 4187.82–4150.10 drop, with rising lows from 4150 underneath.
Support: 4,159.76, 4,150.10, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,176.71, 4,187.82, 4,192.88
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4176.71 ny high breaks the NY range top and puts the 4187.82 lower high and 4192.88 asian high back in play
Loss of the 4159.76 swing low breaks the rising-lows line and reopens the 4150.10 ny low
Close below 4150.10 exits the range toward the 4139.31 asian low
Fed speakers Jefferson 17:30, Bowman 19:00, Williams/Cook 19:30 UTC could shift this read ahead of Fri NFP
17:05 UTC
Range after London-session reversal, lower highs forming · RSI 47 · price 4,162.52
NY range 4150–4177 inside wider Asian range; 4150 floor defended four times, highs stepping down.
Since the ISM print, NY has chopped in a 4150–4177 range. The 4150 ny floor held four times while highs step lower off the 4187.82 london high, and the 4192.88 day high capped the Asia rally. Price sits below both EMAs near the 50–61.8% retrace of the Asia rally, RSI(14) neutral at 47, as hot ISM prices paid and record long-end yields keep gold heavy.
Support: 4,150.10, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,176.71, 4,187.82, 4,192.88
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4150 ny floor exposes the 4139.31 asia low
Break of the lower-highs line and the 4176.71 ny high reopens the 4187.82 london high, with the 4192.88 day high above
Fed speakers (Jefferson 17:30 UTC, Bowman 19:00, Williams/Cook 19:30) could materially shift this read ahead of Friday's NFP at 12:30 UTC
16:47 UTC
Sideways, lower highs building · RSI 48 · price 4,165.72
Compressing range: lower highs into a flat 4150 floor.
Since London, gold has held inside the Asian range of 4139–4193. The 4150 range floor has been rejected four times, most recently after the hot ISM prices-paid print at 14:00 UTC. Each lower high (4187.82 swing high, then the 4176.71 lower high) is tightening price into the 4165 midpoint, with RSI(14) flat near 48 and price sitting just under EMA20/50.
Support: 4,150.10, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,176.71, 4,187.82, 4,192.88
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4150 range floor exposes the 4139 asian low
Break above the 4176.71 lower high voids the lower-highs read and puts the 4187.82 swing high back in play
A 61.8% fib retrace at 4173 capping again keeps the compression intact
Fed speakers from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, then Bowman, Williams, Cook) could break the range; NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
16:33 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since Asia · RSI 50 · price 4,170.37
Lower highs at 4192.88, 4187.82 and 4176.71 against a flat base near 4150; NY range 4150–4177.
Gold dropped off the 4187.82 london high after the 14:00 UTC ISM print, where hot prices paid kept yields and the USD firm. It has since chopped in a 4150–4177 NY range, and a base near the 4150 ny low has held twice. Price at 4170 sits just above the flat ema cluster near 4167, under the 61.8% fib and ny high at 4173–4177, where upper wicks show rejection; RSI(14) is neutral at 50.
Support: 4,150.10, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,176.71, 4,187.82, 4,192.88
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4176.71 ny high breaks the lower highs line and exposes the 4187.82 london high, then the 4192.88 asian high
Loss of the 4150 ny low, tested twice, opens the 4139.31 asian low
Repeated closes back below the ema cluster near 4167 keep price pinned mid-range
Fed speakers Jefferson 17:30, Bowman 19:00, Williams/Cook 19:30 UTC could break the NY range; NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
16:18 UTC
Intraday range, lower highs since day high · RSI 47 · price 4,169.67
The post-claims drop from the 4187.8 pre-NY high hit the 4150 floor twice around the ISM release (14:00 and 15:00 UTC). The rebound then met rejection at a 4176.7 lower high near the 61.8% of the NY drop fib. After London close, price is pinned near the 50% retrace at ~4169, sitting on EMA20/50 with RSI(14) mid-40s, a series of lower highs from the 4192.9 day high pressing into a flat floor.
Support: 4,160.30, 4,150.10, 4,139.30
Resistance: 4,176.70, 4,187.80, 4,192.90
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4176.7 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and exposes 4187.8
Failure to hold the 4160.3 higher low puts the 4150 floor back in play; a break there opens the 4139.3 Asia low
Fed's Jefferson (17:30 UTC), Bowman (19:00) and Williams/Cook (19:30) could jolt the range ahead of Friday's 12:30 UTC NFP
16:04 UTC
Intraday range after rejection from Asian high · RSI 47 · price 4,169.37
Lower high at 4187.82 under 4192.88 Asian high; NY chopping 4150–4175.
The Asian rally to the 4192.88 Asian high was rejected at London open. The claims-hour push stalled at 4187.82, a lower high. Since the ISM release, with hot prices paid and firm yields, price has whipsawed inside a 4150–4175 NY range. Demand absorbed dips at the range floor three times, RSI(14) sits near 47 and price is straddling EMA20/EMA50.
Support: 4,150.10, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,174.93, 4,187.82, 4,192.88
What it said to watch
M15 close below 4150 (range floor) exposes the 4139.31 asian low
M15 close above 4175 range top reopens the 4187.82 lower high and 4192.88 asian high
Break of the lower-highs trendline would void the rejection read
Fed speakers from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams, Cook) could materially shift this read; NFP Fri 12:30 UTC
15:47 UTC
Sideways, lower highs pressing a flat base · RSI 46 · price 4,169.90
Range 4150–4193 with lower highs compressing onto the 4150 range floor.
The hot ISM prices paid print at 14:00 UTC knocked gold to 4151.5. The 4150 range floor held again at 15:00, its fourth test since London. Lower highs at the 4192.9 day high, the 4187.8 lower high and the 4174.9 NY high are squeezing price, and the bounce stalled at 61.8% of the 4187.8–4150 drop fib. Price sits on flat EMAs with RSI(14) near 46.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,139.30
Resistance: 4,174.90, 4,187.80, 4,192.90
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4150 range floor exposes the 4139.3 asian low
Close above the 4174.9 ny high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens 4187.8 lower high, then 4192.9 day high
Fed speakers Jefferson 17:30, Bowman 19:00, Williams/Cook 19:30 UTC could shift this read
NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is the next major catalyst
15:32 UTC
Sideways, two-way swings inside the day range · RSI 47 · price 4,166.73
Range 4150–4193, lower high below the Asia high, NY lows holding 4150.
Gold is ranging between the 4150 NY low and the 4192.88 Asia high. The london high at 4187.82 printed lower, and NY sold off after the hot ISM prices paid. Demand stepped in at 4151.5 and 4150.1, just above the 4149.08 London low, and price is back mid-range near 4167, flat on ema20 with RSI(14) neutral around 47.
Support: 4,150.10, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,174.93, 4,187.82, 4,192.88
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4150 ny low opens the 4139.31 asian low
Reclaiming the 4174.93 ny high puts the descending line from the asia high and london high back in play
Fed speakers from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams, Cook) could materially shift this read
Expanded ATR near 10 points: stalling at the 50–61.8% fib of the London-to-NY drop keeps the range read intact
15:17 UTC
Intraday down-leg, sitting on day floor · RSI 39 · price 4,157.02
Lower high under Asian high, 4150 floor tested three times.
NY session unwound the London rally from the 4187.82 London high, a lower high under the 4192.88 Asian peak, and whipsawed on the hawkish ISM prices paid print. The ISM spike high at 4174.93 capped the bounce. The 4150 floor has now held three times today (4149.08, 4151.52, 4150.10), with price at 4157 below both EMAs and RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,174.93, 4,187.82
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4150 floor confirms a lower-low and exposes the 4139.31 asian low
Recovery through the 4174.93 ism spike high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 4187.82 london high
A full retrace of the London swing (4149–4188) shifts the read from range to breakdown
Fed speakers from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams, Cook) could materially shift this read
15:04 UTC
Sideways, offered in NY session · RSI 39 · price 4,159.04
Lower highs over higher lows, range compressing 4151–4175.
The range is compressing. The 4192.88 asian high and 4187.82 london high form lower highs, while the 4149.08 london low and 4151.52 ny low form higher lows. The hot ISM prices paid print (77.9 vs 72.3) drove gold to the ny low, and the bounce met rejection at the 4174.93 lower high. Price sits under both EMAs with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 4,151.52, 4,149.08, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,174.93, 4,187.82, 4,192.88
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4151.52 ny low and 4149.08 london low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 4139.31 asian low
M15 close above the 4174.93 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 4187.82 london high and 4192.88 asian high back in range
Fed speakers Jefferson (17:30 UTC), Bowman, Williams and Cook later today could shift this read; NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is the larger event risk
Lower highs vs higher lows inside the 4139–4193 Asian range.
Asia ran gold from the 4139.3 asian low to the 4192.9 asian high. London sold the open back to the 4149.1 london low. In NY, the hot ISM prices paid print knocked price to the 4151.5 ism low, and the rebound was rejected at the 4174.9 ny high, near the 61.8% of the NY drop fib. At 4167.7 price is pinned on flat EMA20/EMA50, with lower highs above (4187.8 london high) and higher lows below. RSI(14) is neutral near 48.
Support: 4,151.50, 4,149.10, 4,139.30
Resistance: 4,174.90, 4,187.80, 4,192.90
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4149.1 london low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 4139.3 asian low
Acceptance above the 4174.9 ny high reopens the 4187.8 london high and the lower highs line toward the 4192.9 asian high
Fed speakers Jefferson (17:30 UTC), Bowman (19:00) and Williams/Cook (19:30) during late NY could break the range
Friday NFP (12:30 UTC, ~22h) keeps event risk elevated into the Asia session
14:32 UTC
Range-bound, lower highs into NY · RSI 45 · price 4,163.01
Lower highs at 4192.88 and 4187.82 over a 4149–4152 base, inside the Asian range.
The Asian session ran from the 4139.31 asian low to the 4192.88 asian high, just shy of the $4,200 cap. London faded that to 4149.08 before a lower high at 4187.82. The hot ISM prices paid (77.9 vs 72.3) knocked gold to a 4151.52 NY low in the first hour of NY, and the bounce is stalling near the 61.8% retrace around 4163, below both EMAs.
Support: 4,151.52, 4,149.08, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,166.59, 4,187.82, 4,192.88
What it said to watch
A close below the 4149–4152 london low / ny low base extends the lower-high sequence toward the 4139.31 asian low
Recovery above the 4166.59 ism spike high reopens the 4187.82 lower high and the descending trendline from the asian high
Fed speakers from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams, Cook) and Friday's NFP could materially shift this read
14:17 UTC
Intraday range, rolling over from a lower high · RSI 37 · price 4,155.33
Lower high under the Asian high; price testing the 4150 range floor.
Gold was rejected at the 4187.82 london high, a lower high under the 4192.88 asian high, and the hot ISM prices paid print (77.9 vs 72.3) took it to 4151.52 into the first hour of NY. Price is now testing the 4149–4152 london low cluster with RSI(14) near 37, below both EMAs. The 4166.59 ism high sits at the 38.2% retrace of the NY drop.
Support: 4,149.08, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,166.59, 4,187.82, 4,192.88
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4149 london low breaks the day's range floor and exposes the 4139 asian low
Recovery above the 4166 ism high (38.2% of the NY drop) eases the breakdown read
A close above the asian high at 4192.88 invalidates the lower-high line; the london high at 4187.82 is the first cap
Fed speakers from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams, Cook) could materially shift this read
14:04 UTC
Intraday range, rolling lower in NY · RSI 42 · price 4,159.75
Lower high at 4187.8 under Asian high 4192.9; price testing NY low inside 4149–4193.
London rebuilt from the 4149 london low to a 4187.8 lower high under the 4192.9 asian high. Supply capped it after the strong 12:30 UTC claims print, and NY has since slid nearly $28. The ISM bar is pressing the 4159.4 ny low, between the 61.8% and 78.6% fib of that rally. Long US yields and a firm USD remain the backdrop.
Support: 4,159.40, 4,149.10, 4,139.30
Resistance: 4,166.60, 4,187.80, 4,192.90
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid just out (14:00 UTC); a hot prices print could extend the NY drop
M15 close below 4149.1 london low breaks the double base and exposes the 4139.3 asian low
Reclaim of 4166.6 ny pivot eases pressure; only a break of the lower-high trendline near 4187.8–4192.9 shifts structure
Fedspeak from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams, Cook) and Friday NFP could materially shift this read
13:47 UTC
Range-bound, intraday momentum rolling over · RSI 45 · price 4,163.88
4149–4193 range since Asia; lower high at 4187.82, NY slide toward lows.
Gold has held a 4149–4193 range since the asian low at 4139. London's second push stalled at 4187.82, a lower high under the 4192.88 session high, and early NY gave back about 64% of the 4150–4188 rally leg, printing a swing low at 4159.37. Price sits below the ema20 near 4171 with RSI(14) at 45, matching the digest's read that bounces fade while long-end yields hold at highs.
Support: 4,159.37, 4,149.08, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,171.00, 4,187.82, 4,192.88
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing PMI, Prices Paid and Waller at 14:00 UTC, one bar away, could materially shift this read
A close below the 4149–4150 london low breaks the range floor and exposes the asian low at 4139
A recovery through the ema20 near 4171 and the lower-high trendline toward 4188 would neutralise the fading-bounce read
A close above the 4192.88 session high reopens the 4200 area
13:32 UTC
Intraday range, momentum fading off a lower high · RSI 53 · price 4,168.34
4139–4193 range since Asia; London higher low at 4149, NY lower high at 4187.8.
Gold has held the 4139–4193 Asian range all day. London printed a higher low at 4149, and the NY pop on the claims beat was rejected at the 4187.8 NY high, a lower high under the Asian high as yields keep capping bounces. Price has slipped back to the 50% fib of the 4150–4188 leg, testing the 4166.7 swing low and sitting just under EMA20/50 with RSI neutral.
Support: 4,166.73, 4,149.08, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,187.82, 4,192.88, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid plus Waller at 14:00 UTC, two bars out, could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 4166.7 swing low and the 61.8% fib (4164.6) exposes the 4149 London low
A break of the 4139 Asian low ends the range read and confirms a lower low
A close above the 4187.8 NY high and 4192.9 Asian high would bring the 4200 psych rejection zone back into play
13:17 UTC
Two-way inside the Asian range, NY bounce fading · RSI 48 · price 4,172.20
Lower highs 4192.9/4187.8 against higher lows 4139.3/4149.1, so the range is contracting.
Gold remains boxed inside the 4139–4193 Asian range. The London open sell-off held above the asian low at the 4149 london low. NY then lifted price to a 4187.8 session high after the jobless claims beat, but sellers turned it lower beneath the asian high. Price has slipped back to the 38.2% fib near 4173 and sits on EMA20, with RSI(14) near 48 and ATR(14) around 820 pips.
Support: 4,166.70, 4,149.10, 4,139.30
Resistance: 4,187.80, 4,192.90, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read, given yields are the dominant gold driver
An M15 close below the 4166.7 swing low breaks the NY higher-low chain and exposes the 4149 london low
Acceptance above the 4192.9 asian high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 4200 psych ceiling into play
A loss of the 4139.3 asian low confirms a range break to the downside
13:06 UTC
Intraday uptrend from London low, momentum flattening · RSI 61 · price 4,178.55
Higher lows off a 4149–4150 double bottom; highs compressing below the Asian high.
Gold sold off from the 4192.88 Asian high into London open. It printed a double bottom at the 4149.08 London low and has since built higher lows at 4166.73 and the 4174.84 swing low. The push to the 4187.82 London high after the claims beat left an upper wick, and price is holding just under the Asian high with ATR near $7.7.
Support: 4,174.84, 4,166.73, 4,149.08
Resistance: 4,187.82, 4,192.88, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing, Prices Paid and Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 4192.88 Asian high exposes the 4200 round number, the level repeatedly rejected this week
Loss of the 4174.84 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the 4166.73 higher low, near the 50% fib, in play
Rejection at the 4187.82 London high followed by a break of the trendline support signals a fade back toward the London low
12:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the London low, testing session high · RSI 63 · price 4,184.45
Higher-low chain from 4149 into first hour of NY, below Asian high.
London open erased the Asian run to the 4192.88 asian high, dropping to a 4149.08 london low just above yesterday's 4147 trough. Higher lows at 4166.73 and 4174.84 have since carried price back to the 4186.85 session high in the first hour of NY, with the claims beat (197K) absorbed and long-end yields still capping gold near the 4200 psych level.
Support: 4,174.84, 4,166.73, 4,149.08
Resistance: 4,186.85, 4,192.88, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 4192.88 asian high opens the 4200 psych level
Loss of the 4174.84 swing low breaks the rising trendline
Failure to hold the 4166.73 higher low ends the chain and exposes the 4149.08 london low
12:32 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London · RSI 61 · price 4,181.18
HH/HL chain inside Asian range.
Gold has recovered from a London double bottom at the 4,149 london low and the 4,150 retest. A higher-low chain along the rising trendline has reclaimed the 61.8% of the London drop fib, with the session high at 4,185.86 capping so far and price still inside the Asian range below the 4,192.88 asian high. The 12:30 UTC jobless claims bar shows little reaction yet, and yields remain the dominant driver.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4,192.88 asian high opens the 4,200 round number, the cap that rejected price twice this week
Loss of the 4,174.84 swing low and the rising trendline would leave price vulnerable to a break of the 4,166.73 higher low
Break below 4,166.73 breaks the HL chain and puts the 4,149 london low back in focus
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:17 UTC
Intraday range, recovering from London low · RSI 60 · price 4,176.54
Higher low at 4150 into lower high below Asia high.
Asia dipped to the 4139.31 asia low, then rallied to the 4192.88 asia high. London sold off to the 4149.08 london low, and a higher low at 4150.24 fed a rebound to a 4185.86 session high, which drew a rejection before the second retest of the Asia high. Price sits near 4176 in the upper half of the range early in NY hours, holding above the rising trendline and the 4166.73 swing low; RSI(14) is near 60 and gold is still trading off long-end yields after the soft PCE print failed to stick.
Support: 4,166.73, 4,149.08, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,185.86, 4,192.88, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Prices Paid and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could break the range in either direction
An M15 close above the 4192.88 asia high opens the 4200 round number, where the PCE spike was capped
A break of the 4166.73 swing low and the rising trendline exposes the 4149.08 london low
Failure at the 4149–4150 double floor puts the 4139.31 asia low back in play
Higher lows off a 4149/4150 double bottom, pressing the session high inside the 4139–4193 Asian range.
London sold the 4192.88 Asian high down to a double bottom at 4149.08/4150.24. The late-London rebound has retraced about 69% of that slide and is now testing the 4180.99 session high, with a higher low at 4166.73. The digest still shows gold capped by record long-end yields despite yesterday's soft PCE, so the bounce stays inside the day's 4139–4193 range.
Support: 4,166.73, 4,149.08, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,180.99, 4,192.88
What it said to watch
A close above the 4181 session high opens the 4192.88 Asian high; rejection there keeps the range read intact
A break of the 4166.73 higher low and the rising trendline undercuts the recovery leg
Loss of the 4149 double bottom exposes the 4139.31 Asian low
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
11:32 UTC
Intraday range, lower highs from session high · RSI 57 · price 4,172.35
London double bottom at 4149-4150 below a lower high at 4178.8; price mid-range.
London open sold gold from the 4192.9 session high to a double bottom at the 4149-4150 london low, holding above the 4139.3 asian low. The rebound stalled at a 4178.8 lower high near the 61.8% retrace, and price now sits mid-range around 4172 with RSI(14) neutral at 57. Yields-driven USD demand that capped yesterday's post-PCE spike at the 4219.3 pce high still frames the topside.
Support: 4,166.70, 4,149.10, 4,139.30
Resistance: 4,178.80, 4,192.90, 4,219.30
What it said to watch
Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Fed Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 4178.8 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 4192.9 session high back in play
Loss of the 4166.7 micro low puts the 4149-4150 london low and double bottom back under test
A break below the 4139.3 asian low invalidates the range read
London double bottom at 4149–4150, bounce capped at 4178.84 inside 4139–4193 range.
Asia rallied from the 4139.31 asian low to a 4192.88 asian high. London opened with a ~$40 drop into a double bottom at 4149–4150, and the rebound stalled at the 4178.84 swing high. Price is back near the 38.2% fib at ~4167, hugging EMA20/50 with RSI(14) ~52. Supply has capped every push under the lower-highs line since yesterday's PCE spike to 4219 reversed, with long-end yields the driver.
Support: 4,160.45, 4,149.08, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,178.84, 4,192.88
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4178.84 swing high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 4192.88 asian high
Failure at the 61.8% fib near 4160 exposes the 4149 london low; a break there voids the double bottom
Below 4149, the 4139.31 asian low is the next reference
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Fed's Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
10:47 UTC
London down leg, recovering off lows · RSI 60 · price 4,171.98
Asia high rejected at 4192.88, London double bottom at 4149, bounce to 50% retrace.
Asia's rally stalled at the 4192.88 asia high and London opened with a sharp flush to 4149, where buyers held twice to form a double bottom. Price is back at the 50% retrace of that drop near 4171, above ema20 near 4166. The bounce is still capped below the 61.8% fib, with gold heavy under $4,200 as record long-end yields and a firm USD outweigh the soft PCE miss.
Support: 4,166.00, 4,149.08, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,176.15, 4,183.43, 4,192.88
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.8% fib at 4176 opens the london high at 4183.43, then the asia high at 4192.88
Failure to hold ema20 near 4166 and a break of the 4149 double btm expose the asia low at 4139.31
Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC alongside Waller, could materially shift this read
10:32 UTC
Intraday range, rebounding off London lows · RSI 54 · price 4,167.81
Asian-high rejection at 4192.88, London double bottom at 4149–4150, price testing the London high.
Asia ran from the 4139 asian low to a 4192.88 asian high. Into London open the move was rejected short of $4,200 as long-end yields kept climbing, and the drop stalled at a 4149–4150 double bottom. Mid-London, price has reclaimed the ema20 and is pressing the 4168 london high, near the 38.2% retracement of that leg, with the fib 50% at 4171 next.
Support: 4,164.70, 4,149.08, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,168.15, 4,170.98, 4,192.88
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4171 fib 50% and the london high opens a retest of the 4192.88 asian high
Loss of the 4149 london low breaks the double bottom and exposes the 4139 asian low
Ema20 near 4164.7 is the first area where the rebound either holds or fails
Jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 4192.9 Asian high, flat base at 4149.
London open reversed the Asian rally at the 4192.9 Asian high and retraced about 80% of the move off the 4139.3 Asian low. USD buying and record long-end yields weighed on the metal. Mid-London, price is compressing between the 4149 London low, tested three times, and a 4163.6 lower high, holding near the 61.8% of the Asian rally fib.
Support: 4,149.10, 4,139.30
Resistance: 4,163.60, 4,192.90
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4149 London low exposes the 4139.3 Asian low and confirms a lower-low
Close above the 4163.6 lower high breaks London's sequence of lower highs, with the 4192.9 Asian high the next ceiling
Jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing/Prices Paid and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
09:47 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since London open · RSI 48 · price 4,161.41
Lower highs inside Asian range; bounce off London low.
Asia rallied from the 4139 Asian low to a 4193 Asian high. London reversed it with a ~44-point London drop to a 4149 London low and a lower high at 4168; price is bouncing at 4161, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) neutral near 48. The pullback fits the firm USD and rising yields that already faded yesterday's post-PCE spike to 4219.
Support: 4,149.08, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,167.86, 4,192.88
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4168 lower high breaks the London lower-high sequence and puts the 50% retrace of the London drop near 4171 in play
Failure to hold the 4149 London low exposes the 4139 Asian low
Asian high at 4193 marks the top of the session range; rejection there capped the overnight rally
Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:32 UTC
Intraday down, lower highs since London open · RSI 42 · price 4,161.67
Gold rallied through the Asia session from the 4139 Asian low to a 4193 Asian high, well short of yesterday's failed post-PCE pop to the 4219 PCE high. London open rejected that high and drove a $40 slide to the 4149 London low, at the 78.6% fib of the Asian rally, with the current bounce stalling just under 4163 on a falling trendline from the Asian high through the 4168 swing high.
Support: 4,149.08, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,167.86, 4,192.88, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4168 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and the falling trendline
Failure to hold the 4149 London low exposes the 4139 Asian low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could shift this read
ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; Chicago PMI at 58.8 flags upside risk to ISM
Reclaim of the 4193 Asian high reopens the 4200 area and the 4219 PCE high
London lower highs and lower lows, still inside Asian range.
The Asian rally faded at the 4192.9 asian high, short of the post-PCE $4,200 rejection, and London has since printed lower highs down to a 4149.1 session low as yields and a firm USD weigh. Mid-London, price is bouncing below the 4167.9 lower high and the 38.2% of the drop fib near 4165.8, still inside the Asian range above the 4139.3 asian low. RSI(14) is neutral at 47.
Support: 4,149.10, 4,139.30
Resistance: 4,167.90, 4,192.90
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4167.9 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and opens the 50–61.8% drop fib zone at 4171–4176
Failure to hold the 4149.1 session low exposes the 4139.3 asian low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
09:06 UTC
Intraday downtrend, London selling into lows · RSI 40 · price 4,153.21
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high, testing the session low.
Two hours into the London session, gold has unwound most of the Asia rally from the 4192.88 Asian high. A chain of lower highs has pressed price to a 4149.08 session low, just above yesterday's post-PCE NY low at 4147.45, as firm yields and USD cap the bounce. RSI(14) near 40 is not stretched.
Support: 4,149.08, 4,147.45, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,167.86, 4,192.88
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4147.45 ny low exposes the 4139.31 asian low
Reclaim of the 4167.86 lower high breaks the London lower-high trendline
Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend since London open · RSI 34 · price 4,150.32
Lower highs from 4192.88 asia high, price pressing ny low.
London open erased the whole Asian rally from the 4139.31 asia low to the 4192.88 asia high. Price now sits on the 78.6% fib near 4150 and tests yesterday's 4147.45 ny low, with a 4167.86 lower high capping the bounce. The 4219.26 pce high from the soft Core PCE spike has faded entirely as yields reasserted. RSI(14) is 34, not yet oversold.
Support: 4,147.45, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,167.86, 4,192.88, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4147.45 ny low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4139.31 asia low
Reclaim of the 4167.86 lower high neutralises the London leg down; 4192.88 asia high next above
Hold of the 78.6% fib at ~4150 would mark the first sign of the selloff stalling
US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Mfg 14:00 UTC (prices paid f/c 72.3) could materially shift this read
4219.26 pce high remains the session-defining cap from the post-PCE rejection
08:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, London reversal of Asian rally · RSI 34 · price 4,155.60
Lower high at 4167.9 after London-open drop, price pressing the London low.
London open erased the Asian rally. Price fell from the 4192.9 asian high, just under 4200 psych, to the 4154.4 london low. The 4167.9 bounce printed a lower high, with RSI(14) near 34. Firm yields and USD keep gold capped after yesterday's faded post-PCE spike. Price now sits near the 78.6% fib of the Asian rally.
Support: 4,154.40, 4,147.50, 4,139.30
Resistance: 4,167.90, 4,192.90, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4154.4 london low exposes the 4147.5 ny low, then the 4139.3 asian low
Close back above the 4167.9 lower high neutralises the London downleg; the asian high at 4192.9 and 4200 psych sit above
Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Mfg / Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55 / 72.3) could materially shift this read
08:18 UTC
Pulling back from the Asia high, momentum easing · RSI 41 · price 4,160.96
Lower highs since the 4192.88 rejection; holding 4154–4168 above the London low.
The Asia rally ran from the 4139.31 Asia low, a brief dip under yesterday's 4147.45 prior low, to 4192.88. The Asia high was rejected twice, and the London open sell-off erased about 70% of the move to the 4154.44 London low as yields and a firm USD reasserted after yesterday's failed post-PCE pop. Price is consolidating near the 61.8% fib of the Asia rally, capped by the 4167.86 bounce high just under the EMA20/50 cluster around 4169–4170, with RSI(14) at 41.
Support: 4,154.44, 4,147.45, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,167.86, 4,192.88, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 4154.44 London low exposes the 4147.45 prior low and then the 4139.31 Asia low
A close above the 4167.86 bounce high and the EMA20/50 cluster breaks the lower-high sequence
The 4192.88 Asia high and the 4200 psych level remain the cap; supply has repeatedly held below 4200 since PCE
Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, and ISM Manufacturing plus Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
07:47 UTC
Intraday down leg off the Asian high, shallow bounce · RSI 45 · price 4,164.99
Asian rally rejected at 4192.9 double top; London low 4154.4 holding.
The London open reversed the Asian rally from a double top at 4192.88/4192.41 and dropped about 3,700 pips to the london low at 4154.44. That covered a 61.8–78.6% fib retrace of the 4139–4193 Asian leg, extending the digest's yield-driven fade from the PCE spike. The bounce to 4165 sits below the ema20 near 4173 and the 4174.50 breakdown bar high, with RSI(14) neutral at 45.
Support: 4,154.44, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,174.50, 4,192.88
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the london low at 4154.44 exposes the asian low at 4139.31 and extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close back above the 4174.50 breakdown and ema20 neutralises the London-open drop
Re-acceptance above the asian high at 4192.88 invalidates the double top
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing/Prices Paid and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
07:32 UTC
Downtrend, London open reversing the Asian bounce · RSI 42 · price 4,156.59
Lower high at 4192.88 under the 4219 PCE spike, price back near prior low.
Early London session erased most of the Asian bounce. Price dropped about 37 points in two bars from the 4192.88 asian high to 4156, slicing through the 61.8% fib of the 4139–4193 rally as rising long-end yields keep pressure on gold. That rejection set a lower high below Wednesday's 4219 PCE spike, and price now sits just above yesterday's 4147.45 prior low and the 4139.31 asian low.
Support: 4,147.45, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,164.75, 4,172.17, 4,192.88
What it said to watch
M15 close below 4147.45 prior low, then the 4139.31 asian low, confirms a lower-low in the downtrend
Reclaim of the 4164.75 swing high and the 4172.17 breakdown bar would neutralise the London-open rejection
Lower-high trendline from 4219 through the 4192.88 asian high caps the structure while intact
US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing/Prices Paid with Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:17 UTC
Asian rebound reversing at London open · RSI 48 · price 4,172.66
Lower high at the Asian high, pullback testing the swing low.
The Asia session rally ran from the 4139 Asian low, where dip demand showed up after the PCE fade, to a 4192.88 Asian high. London open was rejected just under that high at 4192.41 and has dropped back to retest the 4171.42 swing low, which sits on the 38.2% of the Asia leg fib. Price has slipped below EMA20 and RSI(14) is near 48, with the 4219 PCE high well overhead.
Support: 4,171.42, 4,166.10, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,192.88, 4,202.29, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 4171 swing low opens the fib 50% at 4166, then the 61.8% near 4160
A reclaim of the 4192.88 Asian high puts the 4202 prior high and the 4219 PCE high back in focus
A break of the 4139 Asian low would erase the Asian rebound
Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:04 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling below Asian high · RSI 57 · price 4,182.47
Asian higher-low chain off 4139 broken at London open.
Gold faded the PCE high at 4219.3 into a 4147 NY low. Dip-buyers then lifted it from the 4139.3 Asian low to a 4192.9 Asian high, where it met two rejections. London open has slipped through the Asian trendline and is testing the 4180.6 pullback low near the 23.6% level of the Asian rally fib, with RSI(14) cooling to the high 50s.
Support: 4,180.60, 4,171.40, 4,139.30
Resistance: 4,192.90, 4,202.30, 4,219.30
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4171.4 swing low (38.2% of the Asian rally fib) confirms a lower-low and reopens the 4139.3 Asian low
Acceptance back above the 4192.9 Asian high opens the 4202.3 prior high
US Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) and ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid with Waller (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; the PCE high at 4219.3 caps the post-data range
HH/HL chain off the Asian low, capped at the Asian high.
Gold climbed in a steady higher-low sequence through the Asia session, rising from the 4139.3 Asian low to the 4192.9 Asian high. That followed Wednesday's PCE spike to 4219.3, which faded as long-end yields climbed. Supply capped a second push at 4192.4, and the 06:30 UTC bar slid to a 4181.0 pullback low. That leaves price sitting on the rising trendline into the London open, with RSI(14) cooling to about 61.
Support: 4,181.00, 4,171.40, 4,139.30
Resistance: 4,192.90, 4,202.30, 4,219.30
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4181.0 pullback low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 4171.4 higher low at the 38.2% asian rally fib
M15 close above the 4192.9 Asian high resumes the HH chain toward the 4202.3 prior high
Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC), then ISM Manufacturing plus Waller (14:00 UTC), could materially shift this read; a hot ISM print puts the 4139.3 Asian low back in focus
Acceptance back toward the 4219.3 PCE spike high would negate Wednesday's fade structure
HH/HL chain off the 4139.31 Asian low, stalling at session high.
The Asia session reversed the post-PCE slide from the 4139.31 asian low with a steady HH/HL chain through the 4151.43 higher low and 4171.42 swing low. Price is now pressing the 4192.88 session high and sitting on the 61.8% fib of the 4219–4139 drop, with RSI(14) near 71. Momentum has flattened over the last hour into London open, and the rising trendline sits near 4186.
Support: 4,171.42, 4,151.43, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,192.88, 4,202.29, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4192.88 session high opens the 4200/4202.29 prior high, with the 4219.26 pce high above
Loss of the rising trendline and the 4171.42 swing low would break the Asia HH/HL chain
A move back below the 4151.43 higher low puts the 4139.31 asian low back in play
Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
06:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend off Asian low, RSI hot · RSI 73 · price 4,190.11
HH/HL chain from 4139.31, testing Asian high at 61.8% fib.
Gold has retraced about 62% of the post-PCE fade (pce spike 4219 to asian low 4139), with buyers stepping in at a higher low each leg during the Asia session. Price is now pressing the asian high at 4192.88, which sits at the 61.8% fib and the Asian trendline, ahead of London open. RSI(14) is near 73, short-term hot but normal for this leg.
Support: 4,185.07, 4,171.42, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,192.88, 4,202.29, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4192.88 asian high and 4202 prior high opens the 4219 pce spike
Break below the 4185 micro low and the Asian trendline puts the 4171.42 higher low in play; losing that ends the HL chain
Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC, ISM Manufacturing and Waller 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:47 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 76 · price 4,188.73
HH/HL chain off the asian low, just under 4200.
Asia session rebounded from the 4139.31 asian low to a 4192.88 session high in a clean HH/HL chain, retracing most of Wednesday's post-PCE fade from the 4219 pce spike. RSI(14) sits near 76 with price capped just under the 4200 round number ahead of London open.
Support: 4,171.42, 4,163.21, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,192.88, 4,200.00, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4200 round number opens the 4219.26 pce spike high
Loss of the 4171.42 higher low and the rising trendline breaks the HH/HL chain, exposing the 4163.21 swing low
Repeated rejection at the 4192.88 session high during London open leaves the Asia rebound stalled below 4200
Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off Asian low, stalling at 61.8% of post-PCE fade.
Asia swept yesterday's NY low near 4147 to an Asian low at 4139, then climbed in a clean HH/HL chain along a rising trendline to 4187. The bounce has retraced most of the yield-driven fade from the 4219 PCE spike and is stalling at the 61.8% fib near 4189, with RSI(14) at about 73 into London open.
Support: 4,171.40, 4,151.40, 4,139.30
Resistance: 4,195.00, 4,202.30, 4,219.30
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4195 pre-PCE high opens the 4202 London high from yesterday's London session
Rejection at the 61.8% fib near 4189 and a break of the rising trendline would put the 4171 swing low in play
A loss of 4171 ends the HH/HL chain and exposes the 4151 higher low, then the 4139 Asian low
Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing with Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; 4219 PCE spike high caps the move
05:17 UTC
Asia uptrend, momentum slowing · RSI 69 · price 4,182.21
HH/HL chain off the 4139 Asian low, testing the post-PCE fade 50–61.8% zone.
After yields faded the PCE spike to 4219.26, Asia swept the NY low to a 4139.31 Asian low and rebounded in a clean HH/HL chain. Price is now in the 50–61.8% zone (4179–4189) of the post-PCE fade, stalling under the 4183.32 session high with RSI(14) near 69, about 1h45m before London open.
Support: 4,171.42, 4,151.43, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,183.32, 4,188.72, 4,194.86
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4171.42 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain and the Asia rising trendline
Acceptance above the 4188.72 61.8% fib opens the 4194.86 pre-pce high and 4200
Loss of the 4151.43 prior hl puts the 4139.31 Asian low back in view
Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) could materially shift this read
05:06 UTC
Intraday uptrend off Asian low · RSI 67 · price 4,180.61
HH/HL chain after false break below NY low, testing 50% fib.
Asia ran below yesterday's NY low to the 4139.31 Asian low and reversed. Price has since built a higher-low chain on rising support and now presses the 4180.89 session high, sitting on the 50% retracement of the PCE fade from 4219.26. RSI(14) is near 67, not stretched; the PCE high above $4,200 failed on rising long-end yields, leaving the 4183–4195 pre-PCE high zone as the next area to watch for rejection or break.
Support: 4,171.42, 4,151.43, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,180.89, 4,194.86, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4180.89 session high and the 50% fib opens the path to the 4194.86 pre-PCE high, with the 4219.26 PCE high above
Break of the 4171.42 higher low and rising support ends the Asian HH/HL chain, exposing the 4151.43 swing low
Loss of the 4139.31 Asian low reinstates the post-PCE downtrend
London open in ~2h is the first test of whether the Asian range extends or reverses
Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
04:47 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows off Asian low · RSI 66 · price 4,175.78
HH/HL chain from 4139, testing 4178 session high.
Asia session dipped below yesterday's 4147 low to the 4139 asian low, then reversed that false break. The Asian rally since then has built higher lows at the 4151 swing low and the 4171 higher low, pressing the 4178 session high with RSI(14) at 66. The bounce sits inside yesterday's PCE-spike fade from 4219, which unwound as long-end yields climbed.
Support: 4,171.42, 4,151.43, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,178.36, 4,185.30, 4,202.29
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4171.42 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes the 4151.43 swing low
Loss of the rising lows trendline (~4168) shifts the read back toward the 4139 asian low
Acceptance above the 4178.36 session high brings the 4185 breakdown zone and 4202 prior high into view
London open in ~2h, then Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing with Waller at 14:00 UTC could reset the session range
04:32 UTC
Intraday rebound, stalling at the 50% retrace · RSI 63 · price 4,172.88
Higher highs and higher lows off the 4139 Asia low; overnight 4147–4160 range broken higher.
Late in the Asia session, gold has bounced from the 4139.31 low and cleared the overnight 4160 range top. That retraces part of the PCE fade from 4219, which unwound as long-end yields climbed. The rebound met a rejection at the 4178.36 asian high, right at the 50% retrace, and price is now sitting on the fib 38.2 and the rising asia trendline, with RSI(14) near 63.
Support: 4,169.85, 4,164.75, 4,151.43
Resistance: 4,178.36, 4,194.86, 4,202.29
What it said to watch
Holding the 4169.85 fib 38.2 / asia trendline keeps the higher-low chain intact; losing it exposes the 4164.75 prior high
A break below the 4151.43 higher low negates the Asia rebound structure
An M15 close above the 4178.36 asian high clears the 50% retrace and opens 4194.86 pre-pce high, then 4202.29 london high
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing plus Waller at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:17 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows off Asia low · RSI 69 · price 4,175.32
HH/HL chain from 4139 sweep low, capped at 50% of post-PCE fade.
Asia dipped below Wednesday's NY low at 4147 to a 4139 Asia low, then reclaimed it and printed a 4151 swing low and a 4163 higher low along a rising trendline. The run stalled at a 4178 session high, near the 50% retrace of the 4219→4139 post-PCE fade. RSI(14) is near 69 and ATR(14) about 690 pips, with London yet to open after a yields-driven selloff.
Support: 4,163.20, 4,151.40, 4,139.30
Resistance: 4,178.40, 4,188.70, 4,202.30
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4178 session high exposes the 61.8% fib at 4188.7 and the 4202 prior high
Break of the 4163 higher low and rising trendline puts the 4151 swing low back in play
Failure to hold the 4139 Asia low negates the reclaim and resumes the post-PCE fade
Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing 14:00 UTC (Prices Paid vs 72.3) could materially shift this read via yields
04:04 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asia low, testing the fib midpoint · RSI 69 · price 4,175.82
Higher low at 4151.43 after a false break of NY low, Asia high 4176.98 under test.
Gold faded the post-PCE spike to 4219 as long-end yields climbed. Early Asia broke below NY's 4147 low to an Asia low of 4139.31, then reversed; it has since built a higher low at 4151.43 and pushed to an Asia high of 4176.98, right under the 50% fib of the PCE drop near 4179. RSI(14) is around 69 and ATR(14) is about 670 pips.
Support: 4,164.75, 4,151.43, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,176.98, 4,188.70, 4,202.29
What it said to watch
A close above the asia high and the 50% fib near 4179 opens the 61.8% fib at 4188.7, then the london high at 4202.29
Failure to hold the 4164.75 prior high puts the 4151.43 higher low and the uptrend line back in play
A break below the 4151.43 higher low cancels the false-break read and exposes the asia low at 4139.31
Jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC (prices paid f/c 72.3) could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off the Asia low, pressing the session high.
Gold faded the post-PCE spike to 4219 through NY as long-end yields climbed. Asia swept that 4147 low to 4139 before reclaiming it, and a HH/HL chain has since carried price to the 4170 session high at the 38.2% fib, with the 4164.7 prior high now acting as the retest level and RSI(14) near 64.
Support: 4,164.70, 4,151.40, 4,139.30
Resistance: 4,170.20, 4,176.90
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4170 session high and 38.2% fib opens the 4177 ny pivot and the 50% retrace near 4179
Rejection at 4170 followed by a loss of the 4164.7 prior high returns price toward the 4151 higher low
Break below the 4151 higher low ends the HH/HL chain and exposes the 4139 asia low
Psych 4200 caps the move. It was the failed post-PCE spike area
Jobless claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing/Prices Paid 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Gold faded the PCE spike to 4219 back below 4150 as yields climbed. In the Asia session it pushed under the NY low at 4147.5 to an Asia low of 4139.3, but that false break reversed sharply. A higher low at 4151.4 has since formed, and price is retesting the Asia high at 4168.7 next to the 38.2% fib of the sell-off.
Support: 4,151.40, 4,147.50, 4,139.30
Resistance: 4,168.70, 4,176.90, 4,179.30
What it said to watch
M15 close above the Asia high at 4168.7 and the 38.2% fib opens the swing high at 4176.9 and the 50% fib at 4179.3
Failure to hold the 4151.4 higher low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the NY low at 4147.5, then the Asia low at 4139.3
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing with Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
The Asia session swept below the NY low at 4147.5 to an Asia low of 4139.3, then reclaimed it. Price has since printed a higher low at 4151.4 and is pressing the Asia high near 4168.7, which sits just under the 38.2% fib of the 4219 PCE spike-to-low decline. Rising yields capped Wednesday's spike, and the 4179.3 fib 50 is the next overhead marker. RSI(14) is near 60 and ATR(14) is about $7.2.
Support: 4,151.40, 4,147.50, 4,139.30
Resistance: 4,168.70, 4,179.30, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
A close above the 4168.7 Asia high opens the 4179.3 fib 50, with the 4200 round number beyond
A break below the 4151.4 higher low unwinds the HH/HL sequence and puts the 4147.5 NY low back in play
Acceptance back under the 4139.3 Asia low would negate the sweep read
Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM/Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC, plus Fedspeak, could materially shift this read
Sweep and reclaim of NY low; higher low inside Asian range.
Gold faded the soft-PCE spike to 4219 as long-end yields climbed. Early Asia swept the NY low at 4147 down to 4139, then reclaimed it with a 16-dollar bar. Price now sits near the asian high at 4164.75 after printing a higher low at 4151, with the move holding just under the 38.2% of the PCE spike fib.
Support: 4,151.43, 4,147.45, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,164.75, 4,176.68
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asian high at 4164.75 opens the 4170–4177 breakdown zone (38.2–50% of the PCE spike fib)
Loss of the 4151 higher low puts the ny low at 4147 and asian low at 4139 back in play
London open (~07:00 UTC) typically tests the Asian range edges
Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid 14:00 UTC (with Waller) could materially shift this read
02:47 UTC
Downtrend since PCE spike, stabilising in Asia · RSI 51 · price 4,155.96
Lower highs from 4219; Asia swept the NY low and reclaimed it; mid-range inside Asian range.
The soft-PCE spike to 4219 reversed through NY hours as long-end yields climbed, leaving a chain of lower highs. Early Asia swept the 4147.45 NY low down to the 4139.31 Asian low and reclaimed it in one bar. Price now sits mid-Asian range near 4156, holding a higher low at 4151 under the 4164.75 Asian high, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 4,151.43, 4,147.45, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,164.75, 4,176.85, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4164.75 Asian high breaks the lower highs line and opens the 38.2% of the PCE spike fib near 4170, then the 4176.85 swing high
Failure to hold the 4151 higher low and the 4147.45 NY low reopens the 4139.31 Asian low
4200 psych capped the PCE spike; it remains the upper boundary of the post-data reversal
Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing 14:00 UTC (f/c 55, Prices Paid 72.3) plus Waller could materially shift this read
02:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalling after Asian reclaim · RSI 50 · price 4,155.35
Lower highs from 4219 post-PCE spike; Asia swept the NY low and reclaimed, now mid-range.
Gold faded the 4219 post-PCE spike through NY as long-end yields climbed, carving lower highs into a 4147.45 NY low. Asia swept that low to the 4139.31 Asian low and snapped back to a 4164.75 Asian high. Price is now chopping near 4155 above the 4151.4 intraday low with RSI(14) neutral around 50.
Support: 4,151.40, 4,147.45, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,164.75, 4,183.88, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4147.45 ny low, then the 4139.31 asian low, turns the Asian sweep into continuation of the lower-high sequence
Acceptance above the 4164.75 asian high exposes the 4183.88 swing high and the lower highs trendline
Failure to hold the 4151.4 intraday low erodes the Asian reclaim
4200 psych remains the post-PCE rejection area capping the move
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC, after jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
02:17 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce stalling · RSI 49 · price 4,154.95
Lower highs from 4219; Asia false break below ny low reclaimed, mid-range.
The post-PCE spike to 4219.26 was fully rejected as long-end yields climbed, leaving a 4147.45 ny low and a lower-highs sequence under the 4200 psych level. Early Asia ran below it to a 4139.31 session low, then snapped back to a 4164.75 session high. Price is now fading mid-range, sitting just above EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 4,147.45, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,164.75, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 4147.45 ny low negates the false break and exposes the 4139.31 session low
Acceptance above the 4164.75 session high breaks the lower-highs trendline and brings the 38.2% of the pce spike fib near 4170 into view
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing/Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:03 UTC
Downtrend from 4219 spike, Asia bounce stalling · RSI 52 · price 4,157.34
Lower highs since PCE spike; Asia false break below NY low, reclaim capped at 4164.75.
Gold has printed lower highs since the 4219 spike on the soft PCE print as long-end yields resumed climbing. Asia session pushed through the 4147 NY low to the 4139 Asian low before a sharp reclaim, but the bounce stalled at the 4164.75 Asian high, just under the 38.2% fib of the drop at 4170.
Support: 4,147.45, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,164.75, 4,169.85, 4,176.85
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4164.75 Asian high opens the 38.2% fib at 4170 and the 4177 lower high
Return below the 4147 NY low negates the false break and puts the 4139 Asian low back in play
Jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:47 UTC
Downtrend from the 4219 PCE spike, Asia rebound · RSI 56 · price 4,162.13
Lower highs since 4219; false break below the NY low reclaimed.
Gold faded the soft-PCE spike to 4219 through NY as long-end yields climbed. Early in the Asia session, price broke below the NY low at 4147 to an asia low of 4139.31, then a $16 reversal bar reclaimed both EMAs. Price now sits near the 23.6% retracement, capped so far by the session high at 4164.75.
Support: 4,155.60, 4,147.45, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,164.75, 4,169.90, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Holding above the ema20 near 4155.6 keeps the false break below the ny low intact; a return under 4147 exposes the asia low at 4139
A close above the session high at 4164.75 opens the fib 38.2 near 4170, where the NY breakdown accelerated
Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing with Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; the 4200 round number capped the PCE spike
Lower highs since 4219; NY low broken then reclaimed in Asia.
The soft-PCE spike to 4219 at 12:30 UTC reversed as long-end yields climbed, leaving lower highs into a 4147 NY low. Early Asia session broke under that NY low to 4139 (Asia low), then reclaimed it in one bar to 4165. Price now sits just below the Asia high near the 23.6% retracement, with RSI(14) neutral around 53.
Support: 4,147.45, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,164.75, 4,169.85, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4164.75 Asia high opens the fib 38.2 at 4170
Slip back below the 4147 NY low turns the reclaim into a failed bounce, exposing the 4139 Asia low
Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing/Prices Paid 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
4219 PCE spike high caps the move; nothing structural changes below it
01:17 UTC
Downtrend from PCE spike, Asia bounce in play · RSI 56 · price 4,160.00
Overnight range 4147–4161; Asia false break below NY low reclaimed.
The soft-PCE spike to 4219 at 12:30 UTC faded through NY as long-end yields climbed, leaving a 4147–4161 overnight range. Early in the Asia session price swept the ny low to a session low of 4139.31 and then closed back above it. A single $16 bar returned it to the session high at 4161.3, just under the pivot high at 4163.8 and EMA50.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,147.45, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,161.31, 4,163.76, 4,169.85
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4163.8 pivot high opens the fib 38.2 at 4169.9 of the 4219–4139 drop
Slip back below the ny low at 4147.45 and the round number 4150 voids the false break read; session low 4139.3 is next
US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing with Prices Paid 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Rejection at the session high keeps price inside the overnight range
01:06 UTC
Downtrend, early Asia bounce · RSI 39 · price 4,148.15
Lower low below the NY range, retesting the break.
Gold faded the 4219 PCE spike as long-end yields climbed, held a 4147–4160 band into the NY close, then broke the 4147.45 ny low early in the Asia session to a 4139.31 asia low. Price is retesting that broken ny low with RSI(14) near 39. Overhead, the 4152.86 breakdown hi and the 4160.44 range top sit just under the 23.6% level of the pce spike fib.
Support: 4,147.45, 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,152.86, 4,160.44
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 4152.86 breakdown hi reopens the 4147–4160 band and the range top at 4160.44
A failure to hold the 4147.45 ny low, followed by a break of the 4139.31 asia low, extends the lower-low sequence
Acceptance above 4160.44 lifts price toward the 38.2% pce spike fib near 4170
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing with Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
00:47 UTC
Downtrend, extending in early Asia · RSI 29 · price 4,143.79
Lower highs since the PCE spike; Asian range broken lower.
Gold's PCE spike to 4219 met rejection and faded through NY as long-end yields climbed. Early Asia has now broken the Asian low at 4152 and the NY low at 4147, printing a session low at 4139.79 with RSI(14) near 29. The 4110 prior low cited in the macro read sits below.
Support: 4,139.79, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,147.45, 4,151.98, 4,160.44
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4147 NY low would neutralise the Asian range break
Recovery above the 4160 Asian high breaks the lower highs sequence from the PCE spike
Acceptance below the 4139.79 session low exposes the 4110 prior low
Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing / Prices Paid 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
00:32 UTC
Downtrend, extending in early Asia · RSI 27 · price 4,142.32
Lower highs from the PCE spike high; NY range floor broken.
The soft-PCE spike to the 4219.26 PCE high at 12:30 UTC was rejected as long-end yields climbed. NY sold off to 4147.45, then held a 4147–4160 range into the close. Early Asia has broken that range floor, printing a session low at 4141.38 with RSI(14) near 27 and both EMAs overhead.
Support: 4,141.38, 4,110.00, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,147.45, 4,160.44
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4147.45 range floor would mark the break as false
Reclaim of the 4160.44 range top negates the lower-high sequence from the PCE high
Failure to hold the 4141.38 session low exposes the 4110 prior low and 4100 round number
Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing/Prices Paid 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
00:17 UTC
Downtrend after spike rejection, now basing · RSI 40 · price 4,151.75
Post-PCE rejection at 4219, tight base above ny low.
Gold spiked to 4219.26 on the soft PCE print, then reversed through NY hours as long-end yields climbed. Price bottomed at the 4147.45 ny low and has compressed in a narrow base since. The early Asia session holds a 4150.58–4160.44 range, with RSI(14) near 40 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 4,150.58, 4,147.45
Resistance: 4,160.44, 4,164.40, 4,174.88
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4160.44 asian high puts the 23.6% fib at 4164.40 and the 38.2% fib near 4175 in play
Break of the 4147.45 ny low extends the post-PCE lower-low sequence
Loss of the 4150.58 asian low sends price back to the ny low
Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing 14:00 UTC (Prices Paid f/c 72.3) could materially shift this read
00:05 UTC
Post-PCE selloff, now basing · RSI 49 · price 4,155.04
Lower highs from the 4219 spike, tight Asian range above the day low.
The Core PCE spike to 4219.26 was a false break above the 4202 London high. It unwound to a 4147.45 day low as long-end yields and strong US growth data outweighed the soft inflation print. Early Asia session is compressing between the 4152 asian low and the 4160 asian high, below the 23.6% fib of the PCE reversal near 4164, with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 4,152.00, 4,147.45
Resistance: 4,160.40, 4,163.80, 4,176.40
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4147.45 day low extends the lower-low sequence from the PCE reversal
Acceptance above the 4163.8 swing high and the 23.6% fib breaks the base-under-resistance read; the pre-pce low at 4176.4 is next, near the 38.2% fib
Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing (Prices Paid vs 72.3) at 14:00 UTC, alongside Waller, could break the Asian range
Long-end US yields near multi-decade highs remain the dominant driver of intraday swings