XAU/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Friday, 2 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the XAU/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
20:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalling above the NY low · RSI 39 · price 4,137.84
NFP spike rejected; lower high at 4149.81, intraday rising line broken.
The 29K NFP miss spiked gold to 4227.28 at 12:30 UTC. The move was fully rejected as long-end yields rose, and the sell-off swept the Asian low at 4133.79 to a NY low of 4125.22. The late-NY rebound stalled at a 4149.81 lower high, and price has now slipped under the intraday rising line from the low. RSI(14) is near 38.
Support: 4,130.08, 4,125.22, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,149.81, 4,196.79
What it said to watch
A break of the 4130.08 higher low and the 4125.22 NY low extends the post-NFP lower-low sequence toward the ~4110 8-week low
An M15 close back above the 4149.81 lower high negates the fade. The 4196.79 Asian high caps the day's range above.
Friday close is near. Monday's ISM Services (14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) is the next catalyst for a yield-driven move.
Lower high at fib 23.6% after post-NFP rejection; tight consolidation above rising support.
The NFP spike to the 4227.3 nfp high was fully rejected as long-end yields climbed. The NY fade broke the 4133.8 Asia low and printed the 4125.2 nfp-fade low, and the late-NY bounce has stalled at the fib 23.6% near 4149.8. Price is now compressing just above rising support and the late ny lows at 4140.4 into the Friday close.
Support: 4,140.40, 4,133.80, 4,125.20
Resistance: 4,149.80, 4,166.10, 4,227.30
What it said to watch
M15 close below the late ny lows at 4140.4 breaks rising support and re-exposes the 4133.8 asia low and the 4125.2 nfp-fade low
Reclaim of the fib 23.6% at 4149.8 opens the 4166.1 london low, near the 38.2% retrace
Weekend gap risk, then ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read; the nfp high at 4227.3 remains the upper cap
Post-NFP selloff low at 4125.2, tight rising-lows base late NY.
The NFP spike to 4227.3 was rejected as the 10y climbed back toward 5.29%, outweighing the 29K miss. The NY selloff swept the Asian low at 4133.8 and printed a 4125.2 swing low. Late NY has since built a base of rising lows, capped at the 4149.8 bounce high near the 23.6% fib, with the pre-NFP low at 4166.1 overhead.
Support: 4,140.40, 4,133.80, 4,125.20
Resistance: 4,149.80, 4,166.10
What it said to watch
Loss of the 4140.4 pullback low and the rising lows line exposes the asian low at 4133.8 and the 4125.2 swing low
M15 close above the 4149.8 bounce high opens the 4166.1 pre-NFP low, near the 38.2% fib
Friday close: weekend gap risk ahead of Mon ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7), which could materially shift this read
20:04 UTC
Post-NFP selloff, basing late NY · RSI 56 · price 4,146.07
Higher lows off 4125 NY low, capped near 4150.
The NFP miss spiked gold through the 4196.79 london high to 4227, then rising long-end yields drove a full reversal to the 4125.22 ny low. Late NY has printed a higher low at 4140.46, with price capped at the 4149.81 swing high, which sits near the 23.6% retracement of the 4227–4125 drop.
Support: 4,140.46, 4,133.79, 4,125.22
Resistance: 4,149.81, 4,164.20, 4,196.79
What it said to watch
Close above the 4149.81 swing high opens the fib 38.2 at 4164
Loss of the 4140.46 higher low and the 4133.79 asia low puts the 4125.22 ny low back in play
Friday close and thin late-NY liquidity reduce follow-through
Monday ISM Services (14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
London high at 4196.79 marks the top of the pre-NFP range
Post-NFP lower low at 4125, base break above 4143.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) spiked gold to 4227.28 at 12:30 UTC. It then fully reversed to a 4125.22 NY low as long-end yields climbed. Late-NY drift has lifted price out of the 4130–4143 range to the 23.6% retracement of the nfp swing near 4149, with RSI(14) neutral at 48 and price only marginally above EMA20.
Support: 4,143.26, 4,130.08, 4,125.22
Resistance: 4,160.11, 4,166.07
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 4143 (range top) returns price to the 4130 range low–4143 base
Acceptance above the 4160 breakdown level and 4166 London low (near the 38.2% nfp swing fib) extends the retracement
Loss of the 4125.22 NY low resumes the post-NFP lower-low sequence
Weekend close then Monday's ISM Services (14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
NFP spike rejected; higher lows off 4125 session low.
The 29K NFP miss spiked gold through the Asian high at 4196.79 to 4227. The move fully reversed as long-end yields climbed, bottoming at the 4125.22 nfp low. Late NY is grinding higher in a higher-low sequence off 4130 and sitting back above the ema20 near 4141. Price is now testing the 23.6% retracement of the spike (~4149), with the 4155.6 breakdown shelf directly overhead.
Support: 4,141.00, 4,130.08, 4,125.22
Resistance: 4,155.60, 4,174.65, 4,196.79
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4155.6 breakdown and the 38.2% fib (~4164) extends the bounce toward the 4174.65 pre-nfp base / 50% level
Loss of the 4130.08 higher low breaks the recovery line; a move under the 4125.22 nfp low resumes the downtrend
The 4196.79 asian high is now the upper reference after the false break above it failed
Friday close in under two hours means thin conditions; Monday's ISM Services (14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
The NFP miss spiked gold to 4227.28 in the first hour of NY, but the move was rejected as long-end yields climbed. Price then unwound through the london low at 4166 and swept the Asian low at 4133.79, printing a 4125.22 day low. Late NY has built a rising-lows chain from the 4130.08 higher low through the 4141.50 swing low, and price is now pressing the ema20 near 4147, just under the 23.6% fib of the selloff at 4149.
Support: 4,141.50, 4,130.08, 4,125.22
Resistance: 4,147.30, 4,166.07
What it said to watch
Close back below the 4141.50 swing low, then the 4130.08 higher low, breaks the rising-lows trendline and puts the 4125.22 day low back in play
Acceptance above the ema20 and 23.6% fib (4147–4149) opens the 38.2% fib, which coincides with the london low near 4164–4166
Friday close is approaching in thin late-NY trade; ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) is the next event risk for this read
18:47 UTC
Downtrend after post-NFP rejection, now basing · RSI 46 · price 4,142.90
Spike-and-fade from 4227, lower highs, tight late-NY range above session low.
The NFP miss spiked gold to 4227 at 12:30 UTC, but sellers rejected the move within the hour. Price unwound about 100 points to a 4125.22 session low, just under the Asian low, before reclaiming it. Late NY has compressed into a 4130 range low to 4143 range top consolidation, with price capped just below the ema20 near 4147.
Support: 4,130.08, 4,125.22
Resistance: 4,143.37, 4,147.30, 4,166.07
What it said to watch
A close above the range top and the 4147 ema20 opens the 38.2% fib of the NFP fade near 4164, just under the 4166 london low.
Losing the 4130 range low exposes the 4125 session low, then the 4110–4113 eight-week low.
ISM Services on Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) is the next catalyst. A hot print would echo the post-PCE fade.
Friday late-NY close leaves weekend gap risk on the reopen.
18:32 UTC
Downtrend after NFP spike reversal, now basing · RSI 41 · price 4,139.79
Lower highs from 4227; tight 4130–4143 range in late NY.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) spiked gold to 4227.28. Supply above 4200 erased the move within the hour, repeating the post-PCE fade, and selling ran through NY to the 4125.22 nfp low, below the Asia low at 4133.79. Price is now compressing in a 4130–4143 range late in the Friday NY session, holding below the 23.6% fib of the NFP drop.
Support: 4,125.22
Resistance: 4,143.26
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4143 range top opens the 4164–4166 area, where the 38.2% fib overlaps the london low
Failure to hold the 4125 nfp low exposes the 4110–4113 8wk low
Weekend gap risk into Monday's ISM Services (14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
18:17 UTC
Downtrend after failed NFP spike, now basing · RSI 37 · price 4,139.23
Lower highs since 4227 spike high; late-NY consolidation box 4130–4143 above day low.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) spiked gold to 4227.28 at the 12:30 UTC release, but the push above 4,200 was a false break. The NFP fade ran about $100 to a 4125.22 day low, briefly undercutting the 4133.79 Asian low. Late NY is now basing in a 4130–4143 box below the ema20, with RSI(14) near 37 and the lower highs intact.
Support: 4,130.08, 4,125.22
Resistance: 4,143.26, 4,149.00, 4,166.07
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4143.26 range top opens a retest of the ema20 near 4149, where the 23.6% level of the NFP fade fib also sits
Loss of the 4130.08 swing low and the 4125.22 day low exposes the 4,110–4,113 8wk low
Reclaiming the 4166 london low, near the 38.2% fib, would break the lower-highs sequence
Weekend gap risk into Monday's ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7), the next catalyst for this read
18:04 UTC
Downtrend after NFP spike rejection, now basing · RSI 37 · price 4,136.13
Post-NFP fade below Asian low, tight 4130–4143 range late NY.
The NFP miss spiked gold to 4227.28 at the 12:30 UTC print, but the push above 4200 was rejected and fully unwound. NY then sold through the 4133.79 Asian low to a 4125.22 session low. Since then, late NY hours have compressed into a 4130.08–4143.26 range below EMA20, with RSI(14) recovering to about 37 from oversold territory.
Support: 4,130.08, 4,125.22, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,143.26, 4,164.20, 4,176.25
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4143.26 range high opens the 38.2% fib of the NFP fade near 4164, then the 50% fib at 4176
Loss of the 4130.08 range low and the 4125.22 session low exposes the 4110 multi-wk low
Friday close after London into thinner liquidity; ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Post-NFP spike rejected; lower-low below Asian low, now a tight 4130–4143 consolidation.
The weak NFP print (29K vs 90K) spiked gold to 4227.28 above 4200, but the move was fully rejected. Price slid through the Asian low at 4133.79 to an nfp low of 4125.22. After London close it is holding a 4130–4143 consolidation, with the range low and range top boxing price, both EMAs overhead and RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 4,130.08, 4,125.22, 4,113.00
Resistance: 4,143.26, 4,150.00, 4,164.21
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4130 range low exposes the 4125.22 nfp low, then the 4113 multi-wk low
Acceptance above the 4143 range top opens the 4150 psych level and the fib 38.2 near 4164 of the NFP spike fib
Friday late-NY thin liquidity and the weekend gap ahead; Monday's ISM Services (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 4227 spike; tight 4125–4143 base after the London close.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) spiked gold to 4227.28 in the first NY bar. That break above 4200 failed, and the full unwind took price through the 4166–4175 pre-NFP base and swept the 4133.79 Asia low to a 4125.22 NY low. Late in NY, price is compressing between that low and the 4143 range top, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 35 after an oversold dip.
Support: 4,133.79, 4,125.22, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,143.26, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
A close above the 4143 range top and the 4150 round number brings the 38.2% of the NFP spike fib (~4164) into play
Failure to hold the 4125 NY low exposes the 4110–4113 multi-wk low
A reclaim of the 4166–4175 pre-nfp base would negate the false break read
Friday close into thin late-NY trade; ISM Services on Mon 14:00 UTC is the next scheduled risk
17:17 UTC
Downtrend after failed NFP spike, basing near lows · RSI 33 · price 4,136.16
Lower highs from 4227; tight 4125–4143 base under former Asian low area.
The NFP miss at 12:30 UTC spiked gold to 4227.28 above the 4166–4196 London range. The move fully reversed during NY hours, repeating this week's fade of dovish impulses, and broke the 4133.79 asian low to a 4125.22 session low. After London close price is basing in a 4125–4143 band below the 23.6% level of the NFP spike fib, with RSI(14) recovering to about 33.
Support: 4,133.79, 4,125.22, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,143.26, 4,150.00, 4,166.07
What it said to watch
A close above the 4143.26 bounce high and the 4150 round number, near the 23.6% fib, would ease the post-NFP downtrend read
Acceptance back above the 4166 london low, near 38.2% of the NFP spike fib, is needed to reopen the pre-NFP range
Failure to hold the 4125.22 session low and the 4133.79 asian low exposes the 4110 weekly low
ISM Services PMI on Mon Oct 5 at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) is the next scheduled driver after the Friday close
17:05 UTC
Downtrend after failed NFP spike, basing near lows · RSI 31 · price 4,139.11
Lower highs from 4227; 4125–4141 micro range late NY.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) at the NY open spiked gold to 4227.3, but the move above 4200 met rejection within three bars, repeating this week's pattern of faded dovish pops. The unwind cut through the Asian low at 4133.8 to a 4125.2 session low. Late in NY hours price has recovered back above the Asian low and is compressing in a 4125–4141 micro range, with RSI(14) near 31 and both EMAs overhead.
Support: 4,133.80, 4,125.20, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,141.00, 4,164.20, 4,176.30
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4141 micro high opens the fib 38.2 at 4164.2, with the fib 50 at 4176.3 above
Loss of the 4125.2 session low puts the 4110 multi-wk low in view
Failure to hold back above the 4133.8 asian low turns the sweep into a clean breakdown
Friday close approaching; ISM Services Mon Oct 5 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) is the next scheduled shift for this read
16:47 UTC
Downtrend, basing after the NFP reversal · RSI 38 · price 4,137.24
Lower highs from the 4227 NFP spike, now a tight 4125–4141 base.
The 29K NFP miss spiked gold to 4227.28. The pop above the Asian high and $4,200 was a false break: NY hours unwound it in a chain of lower highs, cut through the 4133.8 asian low and printed a 4125.22 session low. After London close price is basing between that low and the 4141 bounce high, RSI(14) near 38 and well off the lows. The bounce has retraced barely a tenth of the drop, short of the fib 38.2 at 4164.
Support: 4,133.80, 4,125.22, 4,112.00
Resistance: 4,141.04, 4,147.54, 4,164.20
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4141 bounce high and the 4147.5 swing high opens a retrace toward the fib 38.2 near 4164
Failure to hold back above the 4133.8 asian low puts the 4125.22 session low back in play
A break of the 4125.22 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the ~4112 multi-wk low
Friday close into the weekend; ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC is the next scheduled driver for the NFP read
Lower highs from 4227 high, lows sweep the Asian low.
The 29K NFP miss spiked gold to 4227.28 at the NY open, but the break above the 4200 round number failed. Price then reversed through the london low and the asian low to a 4125.22 session low. After London close it is holding just back above the asian low, with RSI(14) near 34 after dipping below 30.
Support: 4,125.22
Resistance: 4,147.54, 4,166.07, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4147.54 minor high would break the lower-high chain
A recovery to the 4166 london low, near the 38.2% of the nfp spike fib, is the first test of the reversal
Failure to hold the 4125.22 session low exposes the ~4110 multi-week low
ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 4227 spike; Asian low undercut, then reclaimed.
The 29K NFP miss spiked gold to 4227.28 through the 4200 handle. The spike was fully rejected, and the post-NFP sell-off ran about $100 during NY hours to a 4125.22 ny low, briefly undercutting the 4133.79 asian low. After London close, price is holding just above that asian low, with RSI(14) near 31 and both EMAs well overhead.
Support: 4,133.79, 4,125.22
Resistance: 4,147.54, 4,166.07
What it said to watch
A close back below the 4133.79 asian low and the 4125.22 ny low exposes the 4110–4113 multi-wk low
A recovery above the 4147.54 lower high, near the 23.6% of the post-NFP sell-off fib, is the first sign the downtrend is stalling; the 4166 london low and 38.2% fib sit above
ISM Services, Mon Oct 5 14:00 UTC, is the next scheduled driver; nothing on the calendar before the weekend close
Lower highs from 4227; pre-NFP range and Asian low broken.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) spiked gold from 4186 to 4227. The push above 4200 failed within two bars, and NY hours then unwound the whole NFP leg, breaking the 4175–4190 pre-NFP range, the 4166 london low and the 4134 asian low. Price is pinned at the 4125 session low with RSI(14) near 27, and each bounce has been capped by a lower-highs sequence.
Support: 4,125.22
Resistance: 4,133.79, 4,166.07
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4125 session low exposes the 4110–4113 weekly low (Monday's multi-week low)
Recovery back above the 4134 asian low and the 4147 swing high would break the lower-highs sequence
A move back above the 4166 london low puts price inside the day's range and weakens the false-break read
Friday close approaching; ISM Services Mon Oct 5 14:00 UTC is the next scheduled data risk
Lower highs through NY session, testing the Asian-session low.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) spiked gold to the 4227 nfp high at 12:30 UTC. The break above 4200 failed within the hour, and the NY session has since cut through the 4166 london low in a chain of lower highs under the NY downtrend line. Price is now back at the 4132–4134 Asian low and day low, a full NFP fade, with RSI(14) near 30 and ATR(14) around $13.5.
Support: 4,132.12, 4,113.00
Resistance: 4,150.00, 4,166.07, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
M15 closes below the 4132 day low extend the NFP fade toward the 4113 multi-wk low
A reclaim of the 4150 round number plus a break of the NY downtrend line would mark the first higher high since the NFP spike
The 4166 london low is now overhead and the 4227 nfp high caps the session; acceptance back above 4166 neutralises the fade read
Friday NY close and weekend gap risk ahead; ISM Services (Mon Oct 5, 14:00 UTC) is the next scheduled driver
Failed spike above 4219 weekly high, lower highs into a retest of the Asian low.
The weak NFP (29K vs 90K) spiked gold to a 4227.28 nfp spike high above the 4219 weekly high, but the move was rejected within an hour. NY session has since printed post-NFP lower highs and erased the London range, breaking the 4166 london low and the 4150 intra-range level. Price is now retesting the 4133.5 asia low, a repeat of this week's fade-after-dovish-data pattern with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 4,133.50, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,150.00, 4,166.07, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4133.5 asia low exposes the 4110 multi-wk low
An M15 close back above 4150 intra-range turns the 4133 retest into a double low
A reclaim of the 4166 london low breaks the post-NFP lower-high sequence
ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) is the next data risk for the NFP fade read
Lower highs from 4227 NFP high, London low broken, testing Asian low.
The 29K NFP miss at 12:30 UTC spiked gold through the Asian high at 4196.79 to 4227.28. The break failed and the NY session has since fully reversed it, repeating this week's fade of dovish impulses. Lower highs along the NY downtrend line took out the London low at 4166.07, and price now sits at the 4141 session low just above the 4133.79 Asian low, with RSI(14) near 33 and not yet oversold.
Support: 4,141.00, 4,133.79, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,166.07, 4,196.79, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4133.79 Asian low opens the 4110 multi-wk low
Reclaim of the 4166.07 London low would stall the lower-high sequence
A break of the NY downtrend line and the 61.8% fib near 4194, back toward the 4196.79 Asian high, would neutralise the NFP fade read
Weekend gap risk ahead of ISM Services Mon Oct 5, 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7), which could materially shift this read
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) spiked gold to 4227.28 in the 12:30 UTC bar, but the break above round number 4200 failed. Mid-NY session, price has given back the whole pop on a run of lower highs, cut through the London low at 4166 and set a session low at 4155.61. Price is now near the 78.6% level of the asian low-to-NFP-high fib, just above the 4150 shelf, with RSI(14) near 39 and not yet oversold.
Support: 4,155.61, 4,150.10, 4,133.79
Resistance: 4,166.07, 4,174.00, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
A close back above the london low at 4166 and the pre-nfp base near 4174 would break the post-NFP lower-highs trendline and neutralise the fade
Failure to hold the 4150 shelf (prior-day low, 78.6% fib) exposes the asian low at 4133.79
Only a reclaim of the round number 4200 revives the NFP breakout read; earlier pops above it this week also failed
Friday close is approaching; the next scheduled driver is ISM Services on Mon Oct 5, 14:00 UTC
14:47 UTC
Spike faded, momentum rolling over · RSI 45 · price 4,173.50
NFP false break above 4196 session high, full retrace into 4166–4197 range.
The broad NFP miss (29K vs 90K) drove gold through the 4196 session high to 4227, but supply capped the spike and NY hours have unwound the whole move back to 4173. Price now sits on the 61.8% fib of the Asia-low-to-NFP-high leg near the 4169 nfp low, with the 4166 london low just below and the 50% fib at 4180 overhead.
Support: 4,169.20, 4,166.07, 4,133.79
Resistance: 4,227.28
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4166 london low exposes the 4134 asia low
Reclaim of the 50% fib at 4180 and then the 4196 session high would negate the false-break read
Friday close into a weekend gap, then ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7), could materially shift this read; the 4227 nfp high caps the spike
False break above pre-NFP range top, back inside 4166–4197 range near its floor.
Gold spiked to the 4227.28 nfp high on the payroll miss (29K vs 90K) but unwound the whole move during NY hours. The bounce left a false break of the 4196.8 range top, and price has since printed a chain of lower highs back below the 4186.5 nfp base and EMA20. Price is now testing the 61.8% fib of the Asia low–NFP high leg near 4169.5, just above the 4166 london low.
Support: 4,169.50, 4,166.07, 4,133.79
Resistance: 4,186.50, 4,196.80, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4166 london low breaks the pre-NFP range floor and exposes the 4133.79 asia low
Recovery above the 4186.5 nfp base and the lower-high trendline reopens the 4196.8 range top
Acceptance above the range top needed before the 4227 nfp high comes back into view
Late-Friday NY trade into the weekend; ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst
False break above 4196.8 range top; back inside 4166–4197 range.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) drove a spike through the 4196.8 range top to the 4227.3 nfp high. Supply capped it within two bars, and the first hour of NY handed back about 80% of the nfp spike fib from the 4166.1 london low. Price is now pinned near EMA20 just above the 4178.3 nfp low, with RSI(14) neutral at 52 and ATR roughly double its pre-release level.
Support: 4,178.30, 4,166.10
Resistance: 4,196.80, 4,227.30
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4196.8 range top and $4,200 reopens the 4227.3 nfp high
Failure to hold the 4178.3 nfp low exposes the 4166.1 london low at the range floor
No further US data before ISM Services on Mon; post-NFP yield and USD drift into the weekly close is the driver
False break above the 4166–4197 pre-data range, back inside.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) at 12:30 UTC spiked gold to the 4227.28 nfp high, above 4200 and the weekly high. Within the first hour of NY the move faded back below the 4196.79 asia high and into the pre-data range, now sitting near the 78.6% level of the nfp spike fib. The 4178.27 nfp low is holding for now, with the 4166.07 london low beneath it, and RSI(14) is neutral near 53.
Support: 4,178.27, 4,166.07
Resistance: 4,196.79, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4196.79 asia high reopens the 4200 area and negates the fade
Break below the 4178.27 nfp low confirms the false break and puts the 4166.07 london low in view
Acceptance above the 4227.28 nfp high would end the range read
Factory Orders 14:00 UTC and the Treasury yield reaction could shift this read
False break above 4200; back inside 4166–4197 London range.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K, soft wages) spiked gold from the 4174.65 swing low to 4227.28 at 12:30 UTC. Supply above the 4200 psych level reversed it inside two bars, and price is back under the 4196.79 range top. The fade has stalled at the 78.6% level of the NFP spike fib, with the 4183.2 post-NFP low holding in the first hour of NY. RSI(14) is neutral near 56, and ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 1250 pips.
Support: 4,183.20, 4,174.65, 4,166.07
Resistance: 4,196.79, 4,200.00, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4196.79 range top and 4200 psych would undo the false-break read and put the 4227.28 nfp high back in focus
Failure to hold the 4183.2 post-NFP low exposes the 4174.65 swing low, then the 4166.07 london low near the rising lows trendline
Factory Orders at 14:00 UTC and the US 10y reaction to the payrolls miss could materially shift this read
False break above 4196.8–4200 cap, price back inside the pre-NFP range.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K, soft wages) at 12:30 UTC spiked gold through the 4196.8 Asian high and the 4200 round number to the 4227.3 NFP high, but the move was rejected within two bars. Early in the NY session price sits near 4193, close to the 61.8% retrace of the pre-NFP low to NFP high leg, with the 4184.2 post-NFP low holding so far.
Support: 4,184.20, 4,174.65, 4,166.07
Resistance: 4,196.80, 4,200.00, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 4200 round number and the 4196.8 Asian high would neutralise the false break read
A break of the 4184.2 post-NFP low exposes the 4174.65 pre-NFP low and the 4166 London low
Rejection at 4227.3 NFP high stays intact unless the post-NFP spike high is reclaimed
Factory Orders at 14:00 UTC and the US yields reaction to the payroll miss could shift this read
False break above 4200, back inside the 4166–4200 session range.
The 29K NFP miss drove a spike through the 4200 round number and the 4219 weekly high to a 4227.28 nfp high, but supply capped the move. It faded within three bars, and price now sits near 4194, on the 61.8% retrace of the nfp spike fib. Early in the NY session price is back inside the London range, with the nfp base at 4186.5 and the London low at 4166 below, and the rising lows from the Asia low at 4133.79 still intact.
Support: 4,186.50, 4,166.07, 4,133.79
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,219.00, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4200 round number reopens the 4219 weekly high and 4227 nfp high
Acceptance above the 4227 nfp high voids the false break read
Loss of the 4186.5 nfp base puts the 4166 london low and the rising lows line in view
A break of the rising lows line exposes the 4133.79 asia low
Factory Orders at 14:00 UTC could extend post-NFP volatility
13:05 UTC
Uptrend, impulsive post-NFP leg · RSI 70 · price 4,218.19
London range broken higher, consolidating at the highs.
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) at 12:30 UTC broke the 4166–4197 London range from the 4186.16 nfp base, spiking to the 4227.28 nfp high. Price is now holding 4218 at the 4219 weekly high in the first hour of NY, with RSI(14) at about 70. The 4203.88 post-nfp low sits at the 38.2% of the NFP leg, and the 4196.79 range top lines up with the 50%.
Support: 4,203.88, 4,196.79, 4,186.16
Resistance: 4,219.00, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 4219 weekly high and the 4227.28 nfp high would extend the breakout
M15 close back below the 4196.79 range top would mirror the PCE fade and mark a false break
Loss of the 4203.88 post-nfp low puts the 4186.16 nfp base in view
Factory Orders at 14:00 UTC and any yield rebound toward 5.3% could shift this read
London range broken higher on the NFP bar; higher low chain from the Asia low.
The NFP release bar at 12:30 UTC cleared the London range top at 4196.79 and the 4200 psych cap. It spiked to an nfp high of 4227.28, through Thursday's 4219 prior high, then faded to ~4210 and left a long upper wick. It follows a full retracement of the Asia sell-off to 4133.79, with rising support from the Asia low through the 4166.07 london low; ATR is inflated by the release bar.
Support: 4,200.00, 4,196.79, 4,166.07
Resistance: 4,219.00, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4196.79 range top would mark the NFP move as a false break
Acceptance above the 4219 prior high and the 4227.28 nfp high extends the breakout; another stall there repeats the 4200–4219 cap pattern
Failure to hold 4200 psych exposes the 38.2% fib of the Asia-to-NFP swing near 4191.6
Wage (AHE) digestion into NY open and Factory Orders at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Break of rising support toward the 4166.07 london low negates the higher-low chain
Break above the London range and Asian high on the release bar.
The NFP-release bar ripped out of the 4166–4197 London range and through the 4196.8 Asian high, tagging a 4227.3 spike high above Thursday's 4219 prior high before slipping back to 4215. RSI(14) is near 68, and ATR is inflated by the release candle. Ahead of the print, price had held a rising support from the 4133.8 Asian low with a pre-nfp close at 4186.
Support: 4,196.79, 4,186.16, 4,166.07
Resistance: 4,219.00, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4196.8 asian high would mark a false break of the range; per the digest, recent pushes above 4200 have faded
Acceptance above the 4219 prior high and the 4227.3 spike high extends the breakout leg
A drop through the 4186 pre-nfp close and the rising support from the Asian low unwinds the release move toward the 4166 london low
The 38.2% fib of the Asian low to spike high move sits near 4192, overlapping the asian high
US Factory Orders at 14:00 UTC and yield reaction to NFP wages could materially shift this read
London-session range of 4166–4197 inside the Asian range, with compression into NFP.
Gold has fully retraced the Asia-session flush to 4133.79. Through London it has held a 4166–4197 range, with two rejections at the 4196.79 session high and the 10:15 UTC dip finding demand at the 50% fib (4166). Highs are stepping lower toward the 4188 lower high, and price sits just under the 4174.65 swing low area and the EMAs, with RSI(14) neutral near 44, as yields and a firm USD keep the 4200 cap in place ahead of NFP.
Support: 4,174.65, 4,166.07, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,188.31, 4,196.79, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% m/m) lands on the next bar; an ATR near 760 pips is likely to understate the release range
An M15 close above the 4196.79 session high and the 4200 round number breaks the range top and the lower highs trendline
Failure to hold the 4174.65 swing low and the 50% fib at 4166 exposes the 4150 dip support
Asia rebound capped near 4196, London higher low at 4166, now compressing.
The rebound from the 4133.79 Asia low stalled twice at the 4196.79 day high. The 10:00 UTC flush to the 4166.07 London low held near the 50% retracement, and price now chops around 4181 under the 4188.31 lower high into NFP at 12:30 UTC. RSI(14) is neutral near 50 and ATR(14) runs about 760 pips; softer yields support dips, while 4200 psych keeps capping.
Support: 4,166.07, 4,150.10, 4,133.79
Resistance: 4,188.31, 4,196.79, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
NFP at 12:30 UTC (~30 min) could materially shift this read and is likely to expand ATR well beyond the 4166–4197 London range
An M15 close above the 4188.31 lower high reopens the 4196.79 day high and 4200 psych, where supply has capped all week
Failure to hold the 4166.07 London low and the 50% fib exposes the 4150.10 prior low, then the 4133.79 Asia low
11:47 UTC
Sideways after full recovery of the Asia drop · RSI 44 · price 4,178.59
London range 4166–4197 inside the Asian range; higher low at 4166, lower highs at 4188.
Gold recovered the entire Asia-session drop to the 4133.79 asian low. It has since held a 4166–4197 band through London, with two rejections at the 4196.79 session high, consistent with the digest's $4,200 cap ahead of payrolls. The 10:15 UTC dip held the 4166 london low near the 50% fib of the Asia rally, and price is now chopping just under EMA50 with RSI(14) at 44.
Support: 4,166.07, 4,150.10, 4,133.79
Resistance: 4,188.31, 4,196.79, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
NFP at 12:30 UTC, under an hour away, could materially shift this read; the reaction is likely to exceed the ~7.4-point ATR
An M15 close above the 4196.79 session high and 4200 psych breaks the double rejection at the range top
The 4188.31 lower high has capped the last two pushes; a close above it reopens the range top
Failure to hold the 4166 london low breaks the higher-low trendline and the 50% fib, exposing the 4150 prior low and then the 4133.79 asian low
11:32 UTC
Two-way, rebound off Asia low stalling below 4200 · RSI 46 · price 4,180.73
London range 4166–4196 inside the wider Asia session range.
Asia rallied from a 4133.79 low to the 4196.79 asia high as US yields eased off multi-decade highs, and London open stalled at 4196.19, a second rejection under the 4200 psych level. London has since held a 4166–4196 range. The 10:15 UTC dip to the london low sat near the 50% of the Asia leg and was bought back to a 4188.31 swing high, with price now mid-range ahead of payrolls.
Support: 4,166.07, 4,150.10
Resistance: 4,188.31, 4,196.79, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~1h) could materially shift this read; AHE wages vs 0.3% m/m matter as much as the headline
M15 close above the 4196.79 asia high and 4200 psych breaks the double rejection and the range read
Failure to hold the 4166.07 london low and 50% of the Asia leg exposes the 4150.10 ny low
4188.31 swing high is the first cap; another stall there keeps price pinned mid-range
11:17 UTC
Two-way range, recovering into range top · RSI 54 · price 4,187.58
Asia sweep and V-reversal; London range 4166–4197 capped below 4200.
Asia swept below yesterday's 4150 prior low to the 4133.79 Asian low, then fully reversed. London has held a 4166–4197 range, capped twice at the 4196.8 Asian high just under the 4200 round number. The 10:00 UTC dip to the 4166 London low held at the 50% fib of the Asian rally and has recovered to 4187 as US yields ease ahead of payrolls.
Support: 4,166.07, 4,150.10, 4,133.79
Resistance: 4,196.79, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~75 min) could materially shift this read; ATR(14) ~790 pips understates release-bar range
M15 close above the 4196.8 Asian high and 4200 round number breaks the range top that has capped gold all week
Failure to hold the 4166 London low / 50% fib exposes the 4150 prior low and the 4133.79 Asian low
London range 4179–4197 with a higher low at 4166 after an Asia sweep to 4133.79.
Asia swept below the 4150 NY low to 4133.79, then recovered in a V to a 4196.79 session high, and London has ranged 4179–4197 beneath the 4200 psych level. The late-London drop to the 4166 swing low held the 50% fib of the Asia rally and was reclaimed, a false break of the range floor, with RSI(14) neutral near 52 and price back above EMA20 into NFP.
Support: 4,179.50, 4,166.07, 4,150.10
Resistance: 4,196.79, 4,200.00, 4,219.00
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~90 min), with AHE wages, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 4196.79 session high and the 4200 psych level breaks the range, with the 4219 week high next
Close back below the 4179.5 range floor undoes the false-break read
Loss of the 4166 swing low (50% fib) and the rising support line exposes the 4150 NY low
10:47 UTC
Sideways after Asian recovery stalled · RSI 48 · price 4,181.92
London range 4166–4196, capped by a double top under 4200.
The Asia session flushed to the 4133.79 asian low and fully recovered on easing yields and haven demand, but London has stalled twice at the 4196 double top below the 4200 psych. A 10:00 UTC false break of the range floor held the 4166 swing low, near the 50% fib of the Asian rally, and price is back mid-range near 4182 with NFP ~2h out.
Support: 4,166.07, 4,150.10, 4,133.79
Resistance: 4,196.79, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
US NFP and wages at 12:30 UTC (~2h) can move price well beyond the 4166–4196 range
An M15 close above the 4196.8 double top, and acceptance over 4200 psych, breaks the London range
Failure to hold the 4166 swing low and 50% fib exposes the prior NY low at 4150, then the 4133.79 asian low
10:32 UTC
Intraday pullback after London double top below 4200 · RSI 39 · price 4,173.95
London range floor broken; testing 38.2–50% of Asia-to-London rally.
London printed a double top at 4196.79/4196.19, rejected again under $4,200, and the 10:00 UTC drop broke the 4177.47 range floor. Price is holding the 38.2% retrace of the Asia-low-to-London-high rally, with the 4166.07 pullback low sitting near the 50% fib. Positioning is quiet into NFP.
Support: 4,166.07, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,177.47, 4,196.79
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 4177.47 range floor negates the double top break
Failure to hold the 50% fib at 4166 exposes the 4150 psych level
Acceptance above the 4196.79 double top and $4,200 invalidates the rejection read
10:17 UTC
Intraday pullback inside the 4134–4197 Asian range · RSI 41 · price 4,171.30
London range floor at 4177.5 broken; price testing the 38.2% fib.
Asia rallied from the 4133.8 Asian low to 4196.8, but London failed twice there (06:00 and 08:00 UTC), forming a double top under the 4200 psych handle where the digest notes gold has been capped all week. The 10:00 UTC bar broke the London low at 4177.5 and is now sitting on the 38.2% fib near 4172.7, with price below EMA20/50 and RSI(14) at ~41.
Support: 4,165.30, 4,150.10, 4,133.80
Resistance: 4,177.50, 4,196.80, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~2h, f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read
An M15 close back above the 4177.5 london low negates the range break
A failure to hold the 4165.3 50% fib exposes the 4150.1 prior low, then the 4133.8 asian low
Clearing the double top at 4196.8 and the 4200 psych handle would break the week's rejection pattern
10:04 UTC
V-recovery from Asia flush, now flat below 4200 · RSI 55 · price 4,184.79
Tight 4177–4197 range in London; rejection at range high, lows holding 4177–4179.
Gold fell through the prior lows near 4150 to an asia low of 4133.79 early in Asia, then fully recovered as yields eased. Since 06:00 UTC price has held a 4177–4197 range: the London open push to 4196.19 was rejected just under the 4196.79 range high and the 4200 round number, while the range low at 4177–4179 has held three times. Mid-London, RSI(14) is near 55 and price is pinned to EMA20 ahead of the 12:30 UTC NFP release.
Support: 4,177.50, 4,150.10, 4,133.80
Resistance: 4,196.80, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~2.5h) is the main catalyst for a break of the 4177–4197 range
An M15 close above the 4196.8 range high and the 4200 round number invalidates the range read
Failure to hold the 4177.5 range low exposes the 38.2% fib near 4173, with the prior lows at 4150 below
Loss of 4150 puts the 4133.8 asia low back in focus
09:47 UTC
Rebound stalling, flat into range · RSI 47 · price 4,183.26
London range 4177–4196, two caps below 4200.
Gold swept under yesterday's 4150 prior low to the 4133.79 asia low early in Asia, then rallied about 63 dollars. London has stalled twice near the 4196.8 session high, below the 4200 round number, and is compressing into a 4177.5–4196.8 range ahead of NFP. RSI(14) is near 47 and price sits just under EMA20.
Support: 4,177.50, 4,150.10, 4,133.80
Resistance: 4,196.80, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4196.8 session high and the 4200 round number breaks the London range
Failure to hold the 4177.5 london low exposes the 38.2–50% zone of the Asia rally fib (4172–4165), then the 4150 prior low
Loss of 4150 puts the 4133.8 asia low back in focus
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
The Asian session reversed from the 4133.79 asian low into a 4196.80 asian high as US yields eased. London has since rejected the same area at 4196.19, holding a range low near 4177.50 below the 4200 psych level. RSI(14) is neutral near 53 ahead of NFP.
Support: 4,177.50, 4,150.00, 4,133.79
Resistance: 4,196.80, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4177.50 range low breaks the London range and exposes the asian rally fib 38.2% near 4172.70
Acceptance above the 4196.80 asian high and 4200 psych would end the London rejection pattern
Loss of the 4150 round number reopens the 4133.79 asian low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
London range 4177.5–4196.8 inside upper Asian range.
Asia flushed to 4133.79 and then retraced the whole drop to an Asia high of 4196.79, as the 10y eased from its 2002 highs. London has held 4177.5–4196.8, and a second test of the high at 4196.19 was rejected. That leaves a possible double top with RSI near 48 and price just under EMA20 into NFP.
Support: 4,177.50, 4,172.70, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,196.80, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4177.5 london low confirms the double top and exposes the 38.2% fib of the Asia rally near 4172.7
Close above the 4196.8 asia high puts the 4200 psych level in play, a level the digest says failed twice this week
Loss of the fib zone reopens the 4150 round number, which held as the low in Thursday's NY session
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~3.5h, f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
08:47 UTC
Recovered from Asia low, flattening below 4197 · RSI 46 · price 4,181.11
V-recovery from 4133.79 now capped at Asian high; London range 4177–4197.
Gold dropped to 4133.79 early in Asia, then retraced the whole move to a 4196.79 Asian high as the 10y eased off its 2002 highs. Two hours into London, a second rejection at 4196 has price back near 4181, sitting just above the 4177.5 swing low with RSI(14) near 46.
Support: 4,177.50, 4,165.30, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,196.80, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4177.5 swing low turns the twin rejection at the asian high into a lower high and exposes the fib 50% at 4165.3
Acceptance above the 4196.8 asian high and the 4200 round number would break this week's cap
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read; a firm print brings the 4150 range floor back into view
London holding inside the Asian range under twin highs near 4196.
Asia swept down to 4133.79 and then recovered the full drop to a 4196.79 session high as yields eased. London has stayed inside that Asian range: a second rejection at 4196 is capping price, with higher lows at 4177.47 and 4180.66 below and price chopping around the prior high at 4187.8.
Support: 4,180.66, 4,177.47, 4,172.70
Resistance: 4,187.82, 4,196.79, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Close below the 4177.47 swing low turns the twin 4196 highs into a double top, with the fib 38.2 at 4172.7 next
Acceptance above the 4196.79 session high puts the 4200 round number in play, the level rejected twice this week
Loss of the 4180.66 higher low breaks the London higher-low line
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read; ATR near 760 pips means wide pre-release swings
V-recovery from Asian low, now ranging 4177–4197 with higher lows.
Gold has fully retraced the Asian-session drop to 4133.79 and moved above the prior-day high near 4188, as the 10y eased from multi-decade highs and European stress lent a haven bid. Early London is capped at the 4196.79 session high, tested twice just under 4200 psych, with a higher low at 4180.66 above the 4177.47 swing low.
Support: 4,180.66, 4,177.47, 4,172.72
Resistance: 4,196.79, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4196.79 session high and 4200 psych breaks the twice-tested cap
Loss of the 4177.47 swing low exposes the fib 38.2 of the Asian rally near 4172.7
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read; ATR(14) is running near 750 pips per bar
V-recovery from 4,133.8 Asia low into a 4,177–4,197 box with a lower high.
Gold fully reversed the early-Asia drop to 4,133.8 and ran to a 4,196.8 Asia high as the 10y eased off its 2002 highs. In the first hour of the London session it is boxed between the 4,177.5 swing low and that high, with a lower high at 4,192.3 capping it under the 4,200 psych level. RSI(14) is neutral near 57.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4,196.8 Asia high and the 4,200 psych level breaks the box and the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 4,177.5 swing low exposes fib 38.2 at 4,172.7 of the Asia recovery, then the 4,150 range floor
US NFP and AHE at 12:30 UTC (~4.5h) could materially shift this read; ATR is ~720 pips before the release
V-recovery from Asia sweep low, now pulling back inside wide Asian range.
Asia swept below Thursday's 4150 prior low to 4133.79, then rallied in a V-shape to an Asian high of 4196.79, clearing Thursday's 4187.82 top but stopping short of the 4200 psych level that has capped gold all week. Early London is fading from a 4189.2 session high to 4180.86, sitting on EMA20 near the 23.6% fib and just above the 4177.5 swing low, as the market waits on payrolls.
Support: 4,177.50, 4,172.70, 4,150.10
Resistance: 4,189.20, 4,196.79, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4177.5 swing low exposes the 38.2% fib at 4172.7
London session high at 4189.2 caps the first hour; acceptance above the 4196.79 Asian high and 4200 psych would void the false break read
Loss of the 4150.1 prior low reopens the 4133.79 sweep low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~4.75h; f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read
07:34 UTC
Recovery from Asia low, stalling under 4200 · RSI 56 · price 4,185.08
V-shaped rebound from 4133.8 capped at 4196.8, higher low at 4177.5.
Asia briefly broke below Thursday's 4150 range floor to 4133.8. Price then recovered sharply to a 4196.8 session high just before London, as the 10y pulled back from 2002 highs, but supply capped it under the 4200 round number. The pullback held at 4177.5, above the 38.2% fib of the recovery. Price is now at 4185, just under the prior high at 4187.8, with RSI(14) near 56 and Asia quiet ahead of NFP.
Support: 4,177.50, 4,172.70, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,187.80, 4,196.80, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~5h, f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read
A close above the 4196.8 session high and the 4200 round number would break the cap seen on Thursday
Failure to hold the 4177.5 pullback low breaks the recovery line and exposes the fib 38.2 at 4172.7
Acceptance back below the 4150 range floor would reverse the Asia false break
07:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing below Asian high · RSI 57 · price 4,186.82
V-recovery from Asian sweep; higher-low chain, first pullback held.
Asia session swept yesterday's ~4150 prior low to 4133.79, then ran a steady higher-low Asian rally to a 4196.79 asian high. The push above yesterday's ~4191 high met rejection and pulled back to a 4177.47 swing low, just above the fib 38.2. Price is back near 4187 into the London open with RSI(14) ~57 and NFP ahead.
Support: 4,177.47, 4,172.70, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,196.79, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4196.79 asian high and the 4200 round number extends the higher-high chain
Break of the 4177.47 swing low, below the rally trendline, exposes the fib 38.2 at 4172.70
Loss of the fib 38.2 shifts the read back toward the 4150 prior low
US NFP and AHE at 12:30 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read
Asia V-reversal off sweep low, first pullback from session high.
Asia swept below Thursday's 4149 prior low to 4133.79, then retraced the entire drop to a 4196.79 Asia high as yields eased, with rejection just under the 4200 psych level. London open finds price pulling back to ~4181, holding the 06:45 UTC swing low at 4177.47 and sitting near the 23.6% fib of the Asia rally.
Support: 4,177.47, 4,172.70, 4,149.08
Resistance: 4,196.79, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4177.47 swing low exposes the 38.2% fib at 4172.70 of the Asia rally
Acceptance above the 4196.79 Asia high and 4200 psych level would break the cap that has held all week
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~5.5h) could materially shift this read; a loss of the 4149 prior low reopens the Asia sweep low at 4133.79
Asia low swept, V-shaped rebound rejected at session high.
Asia swept below Thursday's prior low at 4149 to 4133.79, then rebounded steadily through the prior high at 4192. The rebound was rejected at a 4196.79 session high just under the 4200 round number, a level the digest flags as repeatedly capping gold, and price is now sitting on ema20 near 4179.8 with RSI(14) cooling to ~48 into the London open.
Support: 4,179.80, 4,175.10, 4,149.08
Resistance: 4,192.41, 4,196.79, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read
M15 close below ema50 near 4175 exposes the 38.2% retracement of the Asia rebound fib at ~4172.7
Acceptance above the session high at 4196.79 and the 4200 round number would turn the rejection read into a breakout
Loss of the 50% retracement near 4165 puts the prior low at 4149 back in focus
V-recovery off the Asia low, higher lows, now stalling below 4200.
Asia session swept below Thursday's 4150 floor to 4133.79, then retraced the whole drop to an asian high of 4196.79 as yields eased. Into the London open, price is holding just under 4200 psych after a rejection at the asian high, with the 4183.13 swing low as the nearest support.
Support: 4,183.13, 4,172.72
Resistance: 4,196.79, 4,200.00, 4,219.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4196.79 asian high and 4200 psych opens Wednesday's 4219 high
Loss of the 4183.13 swing low exposes the 4172.72 fib 38.2 of the Asia rally
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read
06:17 UTC
Uptrend off Asia low, pressing range top · RSI 73 · price 4,190.73
V-recovery from 4133.79 with a stepped higher-low chain, now just under 4200.
Gold flushed to 4133.79 in the first hour of Asia, then retraced the whole drop in a stepped higher-low chain along a rising trendline as yields eased, printing a 4196.79 session high just above yesterday's high. Price is pinned under the 4200 range top into the London open with RSI(14) near 73 and NFP still ahead.
Support: 4,183.13, 4,172.72, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,196.79, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4200 range top marks acceptance through the level that capped rallies all week
Loss of the 4183 higher low and the rising trendline breaks the Asia HH/HL chain, with the fib 38.2 at 4172.7 next
Rejection at the 4196.79 session high into London open would leave a stalled push under the range top
NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read; a strong print puts the 4150 range floor back in focus
06:04 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling at prior high · RSI 63 · price 4,188.37
V-reversal from Asian low, tight consolidation 4181–4192 under prior high.
Asia broke below Thursday's 4149–4150 prior lows to 4133.79, then fully reversed to 4192 as the 10y backed off its 2002 high. Price has been compressing between the 4181 minor low and the 4192.9 prior high for the last six bars ahead of London open, with RSI(14) cooled to ~63.
Support: 4,181.30, 4,171.70, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,192.90, 4,200.00, 4,219.00
What it said to watch
Close above the 4192.9 prior high puts the 4200 round number and the 4219 weekly high in play, where the digest notes three failed tests this week
Loss of the 4181 minor low opens the 4171.7 swing low, near the 38.2% of the Asian rally fib
Break back below the 4150 prior lows would undo the false break
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~6.5h): a print above ~130K or AHE ≥0.4% could materially shift this read
05:47 UTC
Recovery rally stalling at range top · RSI 69 · price 4,186.89
4150–4192 range; Asia false break below 4150 fully reclaimed, now pressing the top.
Early Asia flushed through yesterday's 4150 range floor to 4133.79, then retraced the whole move back to a 4192.08 session high, matching yesterday's 4192.88 top as yields eased off 2002 highs. Late in the Asia session, with London about an hour out, price is flattening just under that high and edging below the rally trendline, RSI(14) ~69.
Support: 4,181.33, 4,169.81, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,192.08, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4192 session high and the 4200 round number breaks the range top that has capped gold all week
Loss of the 4181 swing low puts the fib 38.2 at 4170 in play and confirms the rally trendline break
Return below the 4150 range floor would revisit the 4133.79 Asia low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read
05:32 UTC
Recovering, higher-low chain stalling at prior high · RSI 58 · price 4,185.88
V-recovery inside 4150–4192 range after false break lower.
The early Asia drop to 4133.79 was a false break of the 4150 range floor. The Asian rally then built a higher-low chain to 4192.08 as the 10y backed off its 2002 high, and is now stalling at yesterday's 4192.88 prior high. It is late Asia with London open ahead, and RSI(14) is near 58.
Support: 4,181.33, 4,169.82, 4,150.10
Resistance: 4,192.88, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4192.88 prior high opens the 4200 round number, an area of repeated fades this week
Loss of the 4181.33 swing low breaks the Asian higher-low chain, exposing the fib 38.2 near 4170
A return below the 4150 range floor would undo the false-break read
NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read
05:17 UTC
V-shaped recovery, pressing the range top · RSI 69 · price 4,186.96
Asia swept below the 4150 range floor to 4133.79, then rallied in higher lows back into the 4192 session high.
The Asia session drop swept the 4150 range floor down to 4133.79, then retraced the whole move as yields eased. Price is now back at the 4192 session high, which also capped Thursday's Asia rally, with RSI(14) near 69 and higher lows tracking the rally line. Late Asia into the London open, the window spans roughly 4150–4192 with gold pinned below 4200 ahead of NFP.
Support: 4,181.30, 4,170.00, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 acceptance above the 4192 session high exposes the 4200 round number, the top of this week's range
Break of the 4181 micro low and the rally line returns focus to the 38.2% fib near 4170
Loss of the 4150 range floor reopens the 4133.79 sweep low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~7h): a print far from the 90K forecast could materially shift this read
04:47 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling at session high · RSI 60 · price 4,182.32
V-reversal off Asian low, HH/HL chain since 01:00 UTC, first rejection at 4191.
Early Asia session pushed through yesterday's 4150 prior lows to the 4133.79 Asian low. A V-shaped recovery then retraced the full drop, but the 04:30 UTC bar was rejected at the 4191.01 session high, just under the 4200 round number the digest flags as this week's cap. RSI(14) has cooled to ~60 and price is back inside the 4150–4192 range, with US payrolls ahead.
Support: 4,171.69, 4,150.10, 4,133.79
Resistance: 4,191.01, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 acceptance above the 4191 session high and the 4200 round number would break the range cap
Loss of the 4171.7 swing low breaks the HL chain and exposes the 38.2% fib near 4169
A return below the 4150 prior lows reopens the 4133.79 Asian low
US NFP, UR and AHE at 12:30 UTC (~8h) could materially shift this read
04:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, V-recovery from Asia sweep · RSI 69 · price 4,188.85
Higher-low chain off 4133.79, pressing prior high.
Early Asia session took out the 4149–4150 lows from yesterday to a 4133.79 session low. Price then reversed sharply, built higher lows along a rising trendline and cleared the 4183.82 breakout lvl (the early-Asia high). It now sits at the session high just under the 4192.88 prior high and the 4200 round number that has repeatedly capped gold, with RSI(14) near 69 and markets waiting on payrolls.
Support: 4,183.82, 4,171.69, 4,133.79
Resistance: 4,192.88, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Close back below the 4183.82 breakout lvl would turn the push through the early-Asia high into a false break
Loss of the 4171.69 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Acceptance above the 4192.88 prior high exposes the 4200 round number; rejection there keeps the 4150–4200 range intact
A return toward the 4133.79 session low would retrace the whole Asia rebound
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~8h; f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read
04:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend off Asia low · RSI 65 · price 4,185.22
Higher lows from 4133.8, pressing range top.
The Asia session flushed to 4133.8, a false break below Thursday's 4149–4150 lows. It then reversed in a higher-low chain to a 4188.5 session high, reclaiming the pre-drop 4183.8 high. Late Asia, ahead of London open, price sits just under the 4192.9 prior high and the 4200 round number, with RSI(14) near 65 and the firm USD/yield backdrop still capping rallies.
Support: 4,171.70, 4,155.70, 4,133.80
Resistance: 4,188.50, 4,192.90, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4171.7 swing low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 4192.9 prior high exposes the 4200 round number, rejected repeatedly this week
Loss of the 4155.7 higher low, near 61.8% of the Asia rally fib, reopens the 4133.8 session low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~8h) could materially shift this read
04:04 UTC
Sharp V-recovery, pressing range top · RSI 62 · price 4,178.75
Asia sweep below 4150 NY lows reclaimed; higher-low chain off 4133.79 into the 4183–4193 highs.
Early Asia flushed through Thursday's 4150 NY low to the 4133.79 Asia low. A V-shaped recovery has since retraced ~90% of the asia drop, with price back at the 4183.82 Asia high and RSI(14) near 62, warm but not stretched. The bounce tracks easing yields, but the 4187.8 NY high and the 4192.88 prior high sit stacked overhead into NFP.
Support: 4,171.70, 4,150.10, 4,133.79
Resistance: 4,183.82, 4,187.82, 4,192.88
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4183.82 Asia high puts the 4187.8 NY high and 4192.88 prior high in play
Break of the recovery line and the 4171.7 micro low would mark the bounce stalling, exposing the 4150.1 NY low
Loss of the 4133.79 Asia low resumes the lower-low sequence and voids the false-break read
London open in ~3h is the next point where the Asian range can be extended
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~8.5h; f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read
03:47 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling below asia high · RSI 57 · price 4,172.44
V-shaped rebound with higher lows from 4133.79, back inside Thursday's range.
Early Asia session drop from the 4183.8 asia high swept below Thursday's 4149 prior low to 4133.8 before a V-shaped recovery, consistent with the digest's easing-yields bounce. Price is now stalling under the 4177.5 bounce high, near the 78.6% retrace of the drop, with RSI(14) back at 57 and ATR around 880 pips.
Support: 4,164.70, 4,149.10, 4,133.80
Resistance: 4,177.50, 4,183.80, 4,192.90
What it said to watch
Close above the 4177.5 bounce high and 4183.8 asia high reopens Thursday's 4192.9 prior high
Loss of the 61.8% fib at 4164.7 exposes the 4149 prior low again
Break of the 4133.8 session low invalidates the sweep read
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~9h, f/c 90K) and AHE could materially shift this read; London open first
03:32 UTC
V-shaped recovery inside a two-way range · RSI 55 · price 4,174.82
Asia low swept below prior lows, higher lows since, pressing toward asian high.
Early Asia sold off from the 4183.82 asian high and swept Thursday's 4150 prior low to a 4133.79 swing low. Price has since recovered about 80% of that drop as yields ease, back inside Thursday's 4150–4193 range, with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 4,164.70, 4,150.00, 4,133.79
Resistance: 4,183.82, 4,192.88, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4183.82 asian high reopens the 4192.88 prior high and the 4200 psych cap
Loss of the recovery line and the 61.8% fib at 4164.70 puts the 4150 prior low back in play
A break below the 4133.79 swing low would invalidate the false-break read
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read
03:17 UTC
Recovering after Asia flush, mid-range · RSI 55 · price 4,171.31
False break below 4150 range floor reclaimed; higher low at 4155.72.
The Asia drop from the 4183.82 asian high broke Thursday's 4150 range floor to a 4133.79 session low, then reversed. A 4155.72 higher low has since lifted price back above both EMAs, roughly 75% into the retracement, and it is now testing the 4173.23 bounce high, with yields easing ahead of NFP.
Support: 4,155.72, 4,150.00, 4,133.79
Resistance: 4,173.23, 4,183.82, 4,192.88
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4173.23 bounce high puts the 4183.82 asian high and 4192.88 prior high back in play
Failure to hold the 4155.72 higher low exposes the 4150 range floor again
A break below the 4133.79 session low invalidates the false break read
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~9h away) could materially shift this read; hot wages or payrolls point back toward the lows
03:05 UTC
Rebound off Asia low, still under midnight breakdown · RSI 46 · price 4,165.98
Prior-day low swept and reclaimed; higher lows on rebound.
Asia sold off from the 4183.8 Asia high after 00:00 UTC, sweeping the 4149 prior low down to a 4133.8 Asia low before reclaiming it. The rebound has printed higher lows along a rising trendline, with the latest higher low at 4155.7, and is testing the 61.8% fib near 4164.7. Price sits above EMA20 and just under EMA50, with RSI(14) near 46 and supply overhead at the 4171.5 breakdown point and the 4192.9 prior high.
Support: 4,155.70, 4,149.10, 4,133.80
Resistance: 4,171.50, 4,183.80, 4,192.90
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4171.5 breakdown point opens the 4183.8 Asia high, then the 4192.9 prior high
Loss of the 4155.7 higher low and the rebound trendline returns focus to the 4149 prior low and 4133.8 Asia low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~9.5h) could materially shift this read; ATR(14) already near 890 pips ahead of the release
Asia session sell-off from 4183.8 broke the prior low near 4149.5. Price reclaimed 4150 and printed a lower high at 4162.35..
Late Asia session: the Asia drop from the 4183.8 asian high briefly lost Thursday's 4149.5 prior low and ran to a 4133.8 session low, then reclaimed 4150. The bounce met rejection at the 4162.35 bounce high, between the 50% and 61.8% fib. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 41, despite the digest's easing-yields backdrop.
Support: 4,149.50, 4,133.79
Resistance: 4,162.35, 4,169.80, 4,183.82
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4162.35 bounce high and 61.8% fib (~4164.7) opens the 4169.8 breakdown area
Failure to hold the 4149.5 prior low turns the reclaim into a failed false break and exposes the 4133.8 session low
Only acceptance back above the 4183.8 asian high would erase the overnight drop
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~10h away, f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read
Asia session faded from the 4183.8 asian high and broke the 4150 prior low, flushing to a 4133.8 swing low before a higher low at 4147.3. The bounce is now testing the 50% fib of that drop, just under the 4162.35 bounce high, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,147.30, 4,133.80
Resistance: 4,162.35, 4,169.50, 4,183.80
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 4162.35 bounce high and the 4169.5 breakdown bar (near the 61.8% fib) would put price back inside yesterday's range
Failure to hold the 4147.3 higher low and the 4150 prior low reopens the 4133.8 swing low
Reclaiming the 4183.8 asian high would void the breakdown read
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~10h, f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower, prior lows retested from below.
Gold broke the 4171–4184 Asian range lower from 00:00 UTC (breakdown bar from 4169.5), cutting through Thursday's 4149–4150 prior low to a 4133.79 session low as the USD held its highs into NFP. The bounce has stalled at the 4150–4152 bounce high, which lines up with the prior low and the 38.2% of the selloff fib, keeping the descending line of lower highs intact, with RSI(14) near 30.
Support: 4,133.79, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,150.10, 4,152.28, 4,169.48
What it said to watch
Acceptance back above the 4150–4152 prior low / bounce high turns the retest into a failed breakdown and opens the 4169.5 breakdown bar
Loss of the 4133.79 session low extends the downtrend toward the 4110 8-week low
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~10h away, f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read
A break of the descending line from the 4183.8 Asian high invalidates the lower-high sequence
Thursday's 4150–4190 range broken lower in Asia; lower high pending below 4152.
Gold unwound from the 4183.82 Asian high to a 4133.79 session low within an hour of 00:00 UTC. The move cut through Thursday's 4150 NY lows and the 4145 prior low. The rebound is stalling at 4152, just under the 38.2% fib at 4152.9, with the old NY lows now capping and RSI(14) near 32.
Support: 4,145.05, 4,133.79
Resistance: 4,151.50, 4,169.50, 4,183.82
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 4152 (ny lows / 38.2% fib) would reopen the 4169.5 breakdown bar
Failure to hold 4145 prior low puts the 4133.79 session low back in play; a break there extends the lower-low chain toward the 4110 eight-week low
Recovery above the 4183.82 asian high would negate the Asia breakdown
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~11h away) could materially shift this read
24h range (4149–4193) broken lower in Asia; lower highs from 4183.82.
Asia session reversed hard from the 4183.82 Asian high. Five straight bearish bars took gold through Thursday's 4149–4150 prior low to a 4133.79 session low, with RSI(14) near 22. The digest had gold firm near 4180 on easing yields, so this slide breaks from that read heading into NFP.
Support: 4,133.79, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,150.10, 4,183.82
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4150 prior low (near the 38.2% of the Asia drop at ~4153) would turn the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 4133.79 session low exposes the 4110 8-week low
Recovery toward the 4183.82 Asian high needs a reclaim of the 61.8% Asia drop level near 4165
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~11h) could materially shift this read; a hot print or wages lean on the 4110 area
01:05 UTC
Intraday down leg inside a two-way daily range · RSI 31 · price 4,152.13
Asian range broken lower, price testing the 4150 range floor.
A roughly $30 slide in early Asia unwound Thursday's yield-driven rebound. It cut through the 4171.80 asian low, and price is now sitting on the 4149–4152 range floor, a shelf that held in both the London and NY sessions Thursday. RSI(14) is near 31, and a chain of lower highs at 4187.8, 4186.2 and 4183.8 has capped every bounce inside the 4149–4193 day range.
Support: 4,139.31
Resistance: 4,171.80, 4,183.82, 4,192.88
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 4149 range floor would break the day range and expose the 4139.31 thu low.
A recovery back above the 4171.80 asian low would negate the Asian range break.
The lower highs line near the 4183.82 asian high caps rebounds; acceptance above it re-opens the 4192.88 day high.
US NFP and AHE at 12:30 UTC (~11h) could materially shift this read; the digest flags $4,150 as the line a hot print would test.
4150–4193 day range; lower highs from 4192.9, flat base near 4150; Asia range floor broken.
Gold was capped at the 4183.8 Asia high and then broke the 4171.8 range floor in a $13 drop in the first hour of Asia, giving back Thursday's yield-driven late recovery. Price sits mid-range with lower highs off the 4192.9 day high, and demand held 4150 three times on Thursday. RSI(14) near 34 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 4,159.80, 4,150.00, 4,139.30
Resistance: 4,171.80, 4,183.80, 4,192.90
What it said to watch
Close back above the 4171.8 range floor would mark the drop as a false break
Loss of the 4159.8 swing low exposes the 4150 day low; a break there opens the 4139.3 thu asia low
Lower-highs line from the 4192.9 day high still capping rallies near 4185
US NFP/AHE at 12:30 UTC (~12h) could materially shift this read
4150–4193 range with lower highs; Asian low broken.
Gold has held a 4150–4193 range for most of the window. Highs have stepped lower from the 4192.9 day high, while the 4150 range floor held three times through NY as yields eased. The first hour of Asia saw a rejection at the 4183.8 Asian high, and price then cut through the Asian low at 4171.8 to a 4169 session low, with RSI(14) back near 46 and price under EMA20 ahead of NFP.
Support: 4,168.98, 4,160.00, 4,150.10
Resistance: 4,171.84, 4,183.82, 4,192.88
What it said to watch
Holding below the asian low at 4171.8 keeps the post-midnight drop intact; recovery above it reopens the 4183.8 asian high
A close above the lower highs trendline (~4183) breaks the step-down from the day high
Loss of the 4169 session low and the 4160 ny pivot exposes the 4150 range floor
US NFP/AHE Fri 12:30 UTC (~12h) could materially shift this read via the yield channel
00:04 UTC
Neutral, compressing after NY recovery · RSI 59 · price 4,182.13
Higher lows vs lower highs, converging range 4171–4186.
Early Asia session. Gold is squeezing between a lower-high line off the 4192.88 prior high and a higher-low line from the 4150.10 NY low, with the session high at 4183.82 sitting just under the 4186.15 NY high. The ISM-driven NY dip was bought back as Treasury yields eased late Thursday. RSI(14) is near 59 and ATR is about 480 pips ($4.8).
Support: 4,171.78, 4,163.32, 4,150.10
Resistance: 4,183.82, 4,186.15, 4,192.88
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4186.15 NY high breaks the lower-high line and puts the 4192.88 prior high back in play
Loss of the 4171.78 session low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 4163.32 swing low, then the 4150.10 NY low
US NFP/AHE at 12:30 UTC (~12.5h) could materially shift this read; expect range expansion well beyond current ATR