Lower highs since 4442; 4110–4227 range this week.
Gold has printed a sequence of lower highs from 4442 through 4399, 4316 and now 4227. Since Monday's break below 4200 it has held a 4110–4227 range, with the weekly low at 4110.84 as the floor. The NFP bar sold off from a rejection at the range high and the lower-highs trendline, closing at 4128 despite the soft payrolls print. That leaves price under the range mid near 4150 and below a bearishly stacked EMA20/EMA50, with the ema20 near 4168. ATR(14) near 3,950 pips is elevated, not compressing.
Support: 4,110.84, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,150.00, 4,168.00, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 4110.84 weekly low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 4100 psych level
Recovery back above the range mid at 4150 and the ema20 near 4168 returns price to the middle of the weekly range
Close above the 4227 range high, which sits near the 62% fib of the drop, breaks the lower-highs trendline and invalidates the downtrend read
ISM Services PMI Mon Oct 5 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) and FOMC Minutes Wed Oct 7 could materially shift this read
13:05 UTC
Downtrend, basing in a range · RSI 49 · price 4,180.06
Lower highs and lows since early Sep, now a 4133–4219 range.
Gold has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 4449 early-September high. Monday's drop through the broken low zone near 4244 ran to the 8-week low at 4110.84 as yields and oil climbed. Since then price has held a 4133–4219 range, with psych 4200 and the weekly high capping two PCE-driven pushes near the 38.2–50% fib of the 4315–4110 leg. EMA20 is flattening under EMA50 near 4210, and ATR(14) has eased from Monday's expansion, which points to compression inside the range. The last closed bar predates the 29K NFP miss, so the dovish reaction is not yet in the structure.
Support: 4,133.79, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,219.26, 4,244.29
What it said to watch
An H4 close above the 4219.26 weekly high ends the range read; the broken low near 4244 is the next overhead reference
Another rejection at psych 4200 / EMA50 keeps the downtrend sequence intact
A break of the 4133.79 range low exposes the 4110.84 8-week low; failure there extends the lower-low structure
The NFP miss (29K vs 90K) and the yield response in the next bars could materially shift this read
ISM Services (Mon) and FOMC Minutes (Wed) are the next scheduled risks to the range
09:06 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a post-selloff range · RSI 52 · price 4,185.88
Lower highs from 4442; 4150–4200 range after the 4111 low.
Three weeks of lower highs (4442, 4399, 4316) ended in Monday's break to the 4111 8-week low on higher oil, firm yields and a strong USD. Since then price has held a 4150–4200 range, with the range floor defended repeatedly and a higher low at 4134. Rallies have been rejected at the range top and the 4219 swing high, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the 4316→4111 leg, as long-end yields kept rising. Price sits above EMA20 but below EMA50, with EMA20 still under EMA50, and ATR near 33 dollars shows the post-selloff expansion settling into rotation.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,133.80, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,219.26, 4,237.40
What it said to watch
US NFP in ~3.5h (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read
H4 close above 4219 swing high opens the 61.8% fib at 4237 and the lower-high trendline
A third rejection at the 4200 range top keeps the downtrend structure intact
Failure to hold the 4150 range floor and the 4134 higher low exposes the 4111 8-week low
05:05 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a range above the eight-week low · RSI 51 · price 4,179.51
Lower highs from 4399, with a 4110–4219 range forming after the breakdown.
Gold has printed lower highs along a lower-highs line from 4399 to 4315, then broke the 4244 prior low and fell to the 8-week low at 4110 as yields surged. Since then it has held a 4133–4219 range, with the range floor near 4150 and the 4133 swing low absorbing dips. The softer PCE spike was rejected at the 4219 range high, just above the 4200 psych level and near the 50% retracement of the 4315–4110 fib leg. ATR(14) has compressed to about $32 from the breakdown-phase expansion, and EMA20 is still below EMA50, which sits near the range high.
Support: 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,219.26, 4,244.29
What it said to watch
US September NFP and wages in ~7.5h could break the 4110–4219 range in either direction
An H4 close above the 4219 range high and the 4200 psych level would end the run of fades and open the 4244 prior low
A break below the 4150 range floor and the 4133 swing low puts the 8-week low at 4110 back in play
A close under 4110 would extend the lower-low sequence and resume the downtrend leg
The lower-highs line in the 4250s caps the broader structure even if the range high gives way
Lower highs 4399→4315→4219; rising lows since 4110.84 inside a 4150–4220 range.
Gold has printed a clean lower-high sequence from 4399 through 4315. Monday's yield-driven slide from the 4275 monday high broke through to a 4110.84 8-week low. Since then a series of rising lows has formed above the 4150 range floor. Rallies keep stalling at the 4193 range cap and the 4219 swing high, which sits near the 50% retracement of the 4315–4110 leg. Price is caught between a rising EMA20 and an overhead EMA50, and ATR(14) has contracted from the sell-off week, so the range is compressing ahead of NFP.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,192.90, 4,219.26, 4,275.16
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 4219 swing high (50% fib) breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 4275 monday high
Loss of the rising-lows line and the 4150 range floor exposes the 4110.84 8-week low
A break below the 8-week low resumes the downtrend
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K, AHE 0.3% m/m) could materially shift this read via 10y yields near 5.3%