21:07 UTC
Downtrend since the August high, below falling EMA(50) · RSI 39 · price 4,139.46
Lower highs from the Aug 25 peak; September floor near 4235–4255 broken on Sep 28; week held 4110–4227.
Gold has printed lower highs since the 4696 peak on Aug 25. The 4510 lower high on Sep 3 and the 4399 high on Sep 18 led into the Sep 28 break of the September floor. That drop tagged the 8-week low at 4110.84, near the 78.6% retracement of the June-to-August rally. Price now sits below both EMAs, with EMA(50) near 4325 rolling over. Friday's spike to the 4227 NFP high on the 29K payrolls miss faded into a 4139 close at the lower-highs trendline, as multi-decade-high long-end yields and a firm USD outweighed the dovish data.
Support: 4,110.84, 4,019.20
Resistance: 4,227.28, 4,325.00
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 4110.84 8-week low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 4019 rally base, with the june low at 3942 beyond
- Daily close above the 4227 nfp high and the lower-highs trendline would break the September-October rejection pattern and put the ema50 near 4325 in view
- Only a recovery through the 4510 lower high would undo the post-August downtrend read
- ISM Services PMI Mon Oct 5 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) plus Prices Paid could decide whether the 4110–4227 weekly range holds
- FOMC Minutes Wed Oct 7 18:00 UTC and the US 30y near 5.64% remain the main yield-driven risks to this read