4111–4227 weekly range; two failed pushes above 4200, price back in lower half.
Gold spent the week inside a 4111–4227 range. Wednesday's PCE spike to 4219 and Friday's post-NFP push to the 4227 week high both reversed within the NY session as long-end yields climbed, and the NFP drop ran to 4125 before the 4139 fri close. The Asia session open is holding 4138–4148, below the ema20 near 4159 and the EMA(50) near 4164, with RSI(14) at 44. The nfp low still sits above Monday's 4111 week low, so the rising-lows line from Monday remains intact.
Support: 4,139.46, 4,125.22, 4,111.33
Resistance: 4,159.40, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the ema20 at 4159 and the 38.2% of the NFP drop (4164) would mark a recovery back into mid-range
Failure to hold the nfp low at 4125 breaks the rising-lows line and exposes the 4111 week low
Acceptance above the pre-nfp high at 4196 reopens the 4227 week high and the 4200–4227 rejection zone
ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7, plus Prices Paid) could materially shift this read
Gold held a 4111–4227 range all week. Both the Wednesday PCE pop to 4219 and Friday's NFP spike to the 4227 week high were rejected during NY hours as long-end yields climbed. The NFP fade cut through Thursday's prior lows near 4150 and printed a 4125 nfp low before Friday closed at 4139, below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 40. Friday's late bounce stalled just under 4150, the 23.6% of the fade, and Monday's Asia open is flat near 4140.
Support: 4,125.22, 4,111.33
Resistance: 4,150.00, 4,160.00, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
H1 acceptance back above the 4150 prior lows and the ema20 near 4160 would return price to the mid-week range
Failure to hold the 4125 nfp low exposes the 4111 week low, the eight-week low
ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7): a hot print with firm prices paid could pressure the week low, while a clear miss reopens the 4200–4227 zone
Sustained trade above the 4227 week high would negate the double-rejection read
21:07 UTC
Range, rolled over from the top after NFP spike · RSI 39 · price 4,139.46
4111–4227 weekly range; two failed upside pushes, price back in lower half.
Gold has held a 4111–4227 range since Monday's week low. Wednesday's NY-session push to 4219 and Friday's NFP spike to the 4227 week high both reversed sharply, as the 29K payrolls miss gave way to rising long-end yields and a false break that unwound to the 4125 nfp low. Price now sits below the ema20 near 4162 with RSI(14) near 39, and the late-Friday bounce stalled around the 23.6% level of the NFP drop fib, with the fib 50% at 4176 overhead.
Support: 4,125.22, 4,111.33
Resistance: 4,162.20, 4,176.25, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4125 nfp low exposes the 4111 week low and the rising-lows trendline from Monday
Reclaim of the ema20 near 4162 would neutralise Friday's rejection; the fib 50% at 4176 sits above it
ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7, plus Prices Paid) could materially shift this read
Another rejection in the 4219–4227 week high zone keeps the range read intact; a sustained H1 close above it breaks it