Friday's NFP spike to the 4227.28 NFP high was rejected within the NY session, and the selloff ran to 4125, a drop of roughly $100. Monday's London rally stalled at the 4170.34 Monday high, between the 38.2% and 50% retracements of that drop. During NY hours, as ISM Prices Paid at 74 kept yields near 2002 highs, price slid back to the 4123.30 Monday low. Price is now pinned just below the EMA20 near 4144 and below the EMA50, with RSI(14) in the low 40s and ATR(14) around 1450 pips.
Support: 4,123.30, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,144.00, 4,170.34, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4123.30 Monday low exposes the 4110 2-month low
Reclaim of the ema20 and a close above the 4170.34 Monday high would break the lower highs sequence
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) Tuesday, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read via yields
21:09 UTC
Down since Friday's spike, basing above 4123 · RSI 47 · price 4,140.38
Lower highs from 4227 onto a flat 4123–4125 range floor.
Friday's NFP-miss spike to 4227 was a false break above Wednesday's 4219 high and unwound to 4125 within three hours. Monday's London bounce stalled at 4170, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of that NFP drop, before NY hours sold back to the 4123 range floor as the 10y yield pushed toward ~5.34% and USD held YTD highs. Price is compressing just under the 4141 weekly open, below EMA(20) near 4146 and EMA(50) near 4155, with RSI(14) near 47 after a third test of the floor since Friday.
Support: 4,123.30, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,155.10, 4,170.34
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4123 range floor opens the 4110 2-month low
Reclaiming EMA(50) and the 4170 Monday high would break the lower-highs sequence and bring the 50% NFP drop fib at 4175 into view
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) Tue, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read via yields
US 10y extending beyond ~5.34% would add pressure on the range floor
Lower highs from 4227 pressing a 4123–4125 base inside the 4123–4227 range.
Friday's NFP spike to 4227 was rejected and fully reversed to 4125 in the same NY session. Monday's London-morning bounce stalled at the 4170 Monday high, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the NFP drop. Price has since slipped back below the weekly open at 4141 and the EMA(20) near 4148, with RSI(14) near 41 and lows clustering just above the 4123 week low, as a firm USD and sticky long-end yields keep gold capped below 4200.
Support: 4,123.30, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,141.32, 4,148.40, 4,170.34
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4123 week low confirms a lower low and exposes the 4110 2-month low
Reclaim of the weekly open and EMA(20), then a close above the 4170 Monday high, breaks the lower-highs sequence
Fed's Williams and Bowman on Tuesday and FOMC Minutes on Wednesday at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
17:08 UTC
Down from Friday's 4227 high, floor at 4123 holding · RSI 42 · price 4,131.53
Lower highs pressing into a flat 4123–4125 swing-low floor.
Friday's NFP spike to 4227 cleared the midweek 4219 high but failed within three hours, unwinding to 4125 as long-end yields and a fresh YTD-high USD outweighed the 29K miss. That false break set the lower highs still in place. Monday's London rebound stalled at the Monday high of 4170, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the 4227–4123 drop. The NY session then sold off around the ISM Prices Paid jump to 74 for a third test of the 4123–4125 swing low. Price sits below the ema20 (~4148) and EMA50 (~4157) with RSI(14) near 42. The marginal lower low printed against a higher RSI than Friday's trough, a mild bullish divergence at the floor.
Support: 4,123.30, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,141.30, 4,147.80, 4,170.30
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the weekly open (4141) and ema20 (~4148) would ease the lower-highs read
Failure to hold the 4123 swing low exposes the 4110 two-month low (2m low), where the digest flags long-liquidation risk
A break of the Monday high at 4170 and the lower-highs trendline reopens the 4200 pivot
Fed's Williams (Tue 13:05 UTC) and Bowman (Tue 14:45 UTC), then FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC), could materially shift this read via yields
Lower highs pressing a flat 4123–4125 base below both EMAs.
Friday's NFP spike to the 4227.3 friday high was fully reversed into 4125. Monday's London bounce then stalled at the 4170.3 monday high, between the 38.2% and 50% retrace of that NFP sell-off, extending the lower-highs sequence. NY hours sold back to the 4123.3 monday low after ISM Services Prices Paid jumped to 74, leaving price below the ema20 (~4150) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) at 42. Demand has now stepped in twice at 4123–4125, still above the 4110 2-month low.
Support: 4,123.30, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,149.80, 4,170.34, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4123.3 monday low exposes the 4110 2-month low, the floor of the week's range
Reclaiming the ema20 near 4150 and the lower-highs trendline would open a retest of the 4170.3 monday high
A move back above 4200 toward the 4227.3 friday high would break the lower-highs sequence off the NFP sell-off
Williams (Tue 13:05 UTC), Bowman (Tue 14:45 UTC) and FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read via long-end yields
Lower highs 4227→4170 compressing onto a 4125–4131 base.
Friday's NFP spike to the 4227 week high was rejected within three hours and unwound to 4125 by the NY afternoon. Gold could not hold the move as long-end yields and a firm USD dominated. Monday has traded a 4125–4170 band below EMA(20) and EMA(50), printing a lower high at the 4170 Monday high during the London session, and today's ISM Services print with Prices Paid at 74 knocked price back to the 4131 NY low, a higher low above the 4125 double low, while RSI(14) holds mid-range near 45.
Support: 4,131.46, 4,124.64, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,153.10, 4,170.34, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4125 double low exposes the 4110 2-month low flagged in the macro read
Reclaiming EMA(20) near 4153 and closing above the 4170 Monday high breaks the lower-highs line and the NFP spike retrace 38.2% near 4164
Fed's Williams (Tue 13:05 UTC) and Bowman (Tue 14:45 UTC) could shift the read via yields ahead of FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC
14:05 UTC
Downtrend inside a range, lower highs since Friday · RSI 42 · price 4,138.93
Lower highs from 4227.28 NFP spike; lows holding 4124–4125, price in lower half of 4125–4227 range.
Friday's NFP spike to 4227.28 briefly cleared Wednesday's 4219 high, then reversed to 4125.22 as yields climbed, overpowering the soft payrolls print. Monday's London rebound from the 4124.64 week low stalled at 4170.34, the monday high, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of that NFP spike. The first hour of NY then sold back to 4131 ahead of ISM Services, leaving price below the weekly open, the ema20 near 4150 and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 4,124.64, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,141.32, 4,150.00, 4,170.34
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4124.64 week low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 4110 2-month low
Reclaim of the 4141.32 weekly open and the ema20 near 4150 would ease the lower-high sequence
H1 close above the 4170.34 monday high breaks the lower-high trendline from Friday's NFP spike
ISM Services (f/c 55) and Prices Paid due now could materially shift this read; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC
Lower highs from 4227 NFP spike, 4125 floor holding twice.
Friday's NFP spike to 4227.28 was fully reversed into the NY afternoon. That was the second rejection of the 4220s after Wednesday's 4219 failure, as elevated long-end yields and a firm USD overrode the payroll miss. Monday's Asia dip to 4124.64 matched Friday's two-day low, and London lifted price to the 4170.34 Monday high, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the NFP drop; since then price has compressed in a 4151–4169 band on higher lows, holding above EMA(20) but below EMA(50) with RSI(14) in the mid-50s.
Support: 4,151.06, 4,141.32, 4,124.64
Resistance: 4,170.34, 4,196.79, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55, prices paid in focus), with S&P Global PMI at 13:45, lands within the next bar and could materially shift this read
An H1 close above the 4170.34 Monday high breaks the lower-high sequence from the NFP spike and opens the 4196.79 pre-NFP high
Loss of the 4151 London low and the 4141.32 weekly open puts the 4124.64 two-day low back in focus; a close below it breaks the range floor
A further failure below the 4227 NFP spike keeps the 4125–4227 range top intact
4125–4227 range; lower high Monday after Friday's failed break.
Friday's NFP miss spiked gold to the 4227 Friday high, but the break above the 4200 round number failed and price fell more than $100 to 4125 into the NY session, as record long-end yields and a YTD-high USD outweighed the dovish data. Monday's Asia session dipped to a 4124.6 swing low, matching Friday's trough, before a London open bounce stalled at the 4170 Monday high, a lower high inside the Fri–Mon fib. Price now sits flat on EMA(20) near 4156 and just below EMA(50) around 4161, with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and holding above the weekly open at 4141.
Support: 4,155.70, 4,141.30, 4,124.60
Resistance: 4,170.30, 4,200.00, 4,227.30
What it said to watch
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55), preceded by S&P Global PMI at 13:45, could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 4170 Monday high breaks the lower-highs trendline and opens the 50% fib near 4176 and the 4200 round number
Failure to hold the weekly open at 4141 exposes the 4125 swing low; a close below confirms a lower-low toward the 4110 two-month low
Another rejection between 4200 and the 4227 Friday high keeps the range intact
Range 4125–4227 with tentative double bottom at the floor.
Gold has ranged 4125–4227 since Tuesday. Wednesday's PCE spike to 4219 and Friday's NFP spike to the 4227 week high were both rejected as long-end yields climbed, and the NFP move unwound to 4125 by the NY close. Monday's Asia session dip to 4124.6 nearly matched Friday's low to form a tentative double low, while the London open bounce stalled at the 4170 session high, just above the 38.2% retracement of the NFP drop. Price holds above EMA(20) near 4156 and the 4141 weekly open, sits on EMA(50) around 4161, and RSI(14) is back at a neutral 52.
Support: 4,155.90, 4,141.32, 4,124.64
Resistance: 4,170.34, 4,200.00, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
ISM Services PMI and Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) could materially shift this read via yields
H1 close above the 4170 session high and 38.2% retracement opens the path to the 4200 round number, with the 4227 week high above
Slip back below EMA(20) near 4156 and the 4141 weekly open puts the 4124–4125 double low back in focus
Failure to hold the 4124–4125 double low invalidates the double bottom and breaks the range floor
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC are the next scheduled test of the range
4125–4227 range; Monday rebound off week low stalled at 38.2% retracement.
Gold has held a 4125–4227 range all week. Wednesday's soft-PCE pop to 4219 and Friday's NFP spike to the 4227.3 week high both reversed during NY hours as long-end yields held, and the NFP drop unwound to 4125. Monday's Asia session slipped marginally under Friday's low to a 4124.6 week low before London lifted price to a 4170.3 day high, just above the 38.2% retracement of that drop. Price now sits between EMA(20) near 4155 and EMA(50) near 4161, with RSI(14) flat at 51.
Support: 4,155.00, 4,139.46, 4,124.64
Resistance: 4,170.34, 4,196.79, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) and S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 4170.3 day high and the 50% retracement near 4176 opens the path to the 4196.8 pre-nfp high
Failure to hold ema20 near 4155 and the 4139.5 prior close (last week's close) brings the 4124.6 week low back into play
A close below the 4124.6 week low breaks the range floor
4227.3 week high caps the range after two NY-session rejections this week; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC are the next scheduled test
4125–4227 range; Monday dip below Friday's low reclaimed into London.
Gold has held a 4125–4227 range across the window. Wednesday's PCE pop to 4219 and Friday's NFP spike to the 4227 nfp high both reversed in NY hours as long-end yields held, the latter unwinding to 4125. Monday's Asia session dipped to a 4124.64 monday low, just under Friday's low, and was reclaimed through the London open. That lifted price back above the weekly open at 4141 and EMA(20) near 4155, and to the 38.2% retrace of the NFP drop at ~4164, with RSI(14) near 57 and the session high at 4170 capping for now.
Support: 4,155.00, 4,141.32, 4,124.64
Resistance: 4,170.34, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4170 session high exposes the 50% retrace near 4176 and Thursday's 4196 thu high
4200–4227 zone, topped by the nfp high, rejected three advances last week; a sustained H1 hold above 4227 would break the range read
Loss of the Monday higher lows and EMA(20) at 4155 shifts focus back to the 4141 weekly open
Failure to hold 4124.64 (monday low) turns the false break into a range break lower
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) and its Prices Paid component could materially shift this read via long-end yields
Sideways 4,125–4,227 range; range floor retested Monday, price back mid-range.
Gold has rotated inside a 4,125–4,227 range all week. NY-session pops above 4,200, first on the soft Core PCE midweek and then on Friday's 29K NFP miss to the 4,227 NFP high, both reversed as long-end yields climbed, and the post-NFP leg unwound to the 4,125 range floor. Monday's late-Asia dip held that floor, and the push into the London open has reclaimed EMA(20) near 4,153. Price is now pressing the 38.2% retracement of the NFP reversal near 4,164, with RSI(14) back at ~53 and price sitting on EMA(50) at ~4,161, leaving the hourly read neutral mid-range.
What it said to watch
H1 acceptance above the 4,166 Monday high and the 38.2% retracement opens the path back toward the 4,200 round number
Slip back below EMA(20) and the 4,139 Friday close re-exposes the 4,125 range floor; an H1 close beneath it breaks the range
Acceptance above the 4,227 NFP high flips the range read after two false breaks above 4,200 this week
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7, plus Prices Paid) could materially shift this read; a hot print reviving hike pricing tends to pressure gold
4125–4227 range; descending highs pressing toward a 4125 triple low.
Gold has held a 4125–4227 range through the window. The NFP-driven spike to the 4227.28 week high in Friday's NY session reversed about $100 within three hours as long-end yields climbed, repeating the midweek rejection above the 4200 round number. Since then highs have stepped lower: Monday's Asia uptick to the 4161.64 asia high faded back to the 4125 triple low before rebounding into the London open, and price now sits on EMA(20) near 4152, just under EMA(50) near 4160, with RSI(14) flat around 48.
Support: 4,141.32, 4,124.64
Resistance: 4,161.64, 4,200.00, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC today (f/c 55.7, plus Prices Paid) could materially shift this read.
An H1 close above the 4161.64 asia high and the lower-highs trendline exposes the friday drop fib 50% near 4176.
Losing the 4141 weekly open puts the 4125 triple low back in play; a close below it breaks the range floor.
Acceptance above the 4200 round number toward the 4227 week high would invalidate the range read.
4122–4227 range; lower highs off the range top, floor retested in Monday Asia.
Gold has held a 4122–4227 range all week. Tuesday's range floor near 4122 held, while rallies on Wednesday's soft Core PCE and Friday's NFP miss were both rejected at 4219–4227, and Friday's NFP spike fully reversed during NY hours. Monday's Asia session stalled at the 4163 Asia high, near the 38.2% retracement of that NFP reversal, then dipped to the 4124.64 Asia low before drifting back toward the 4141 weekly open. Price sits below EMA(20) near 4150 and EMA(50) near 4160 with RSI(14) at 47, leaving a lower-highs sequence inside the range.
Support: 4,124.64, 4,122.11
Resistance: 4,141.32, 4,163.16, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4122 range floor and the Asia low breaks the week-long range and confirms a lower-low
Acceptance back above the 4163 Asia high and the 38.2% NFP reversal fib would break the lower-highs line
Range top at 4219–4227 has rejected twice; acceptance above it breaks the cap
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7, Prices Paid) in ~8h could materially shift this read, with FOMC Minutes Wednesday
05:06 UTC
Range-bound, pressing the range floor · RSI 39 · price 4,131.62
4122–4227 range; lower high on Monday after Friday's NFP reversal.
Gold has spent the week in a 4122–4227 range. Supply capped the post-PCE spike to 4219 and Friday's NFP push to the 4227 friday high, which then reversed about 100 points into the NY session as long-end yields stayed near 2002 highs. Monday's Asia session bounce stalled at 4163, the monday high, just below the 38.2% retracement of Friday's drop, as the USD printed a fresh YTD high. Price now sits under EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 39, testing the range floor at 4122 for a third time.
Support: 4,122.11, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,163.16, 4,200.00, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4122 range floor confirms a break of the weekly range and exposes the 4100 round number
Reclaim of the 4163 monday high and the lower-high trendline would neutralise Monday's rejection
4200 round number up to the 4227 friday high remains the rejection zone; acceptance above it breaks the week-long cap
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7, Prices Paid) could materially shift this read
EMA(20) near 4150 is now overhead; pullbacks failing there extend the lower-high sequence
Gold has chopped inside a 4113–4227 range since Tuesday. NY-session spikes through the 4200 psych level reversed on Wednesday and again after Friday's NFP miss, where the 4227 false break unwound to the 4125 nfp low as long-end yields held firm. Monday's Asia session opened at 4141 (weekly open) and stalled at 4163 (monday high), just under the 38.2% retrace of the NFP drop, then slipped back below the EMA(20) near 4155 with RSI(14) at 43.
Support: 4,141.32, 4,125.22, 4,113.39
Resistance: 4,154.60, 4,163.16, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 (~4155) and the 4163 monday high would reclaim the 38.2% of the NFP drop fib
Failure to hold the 4141 weekly open exposes the 4125 nfp low and the rising lows line
A break below the 4113 8wk low would end the range read
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7, Prices Paid) could materially shift this read; the 4200 psych level capped every test last week
4125–4227 range; lower high at 4163 after NFP false break.
Gold has rotated inside a 4125–4227 range all week. Both NY-session spikes above the 4200 round number, on Wednesday's Core PCE and Friday's NFP miss, reversed within hours as long-end yields held near 2002 highs, and the NFP false break unwound to the 4125 friday low. Monday's Asia session bounce stalled at the 4163 Asia high, just shy of the 38.2% retracement of that drop. Price has since slipped back toward the weekly open near 4141, below EMA(20) at ~4157 with RSI(14) near 44, which keeps the lower highs line from Friday's spike intact.
Support: 4,141.30, 4,125.22, 4,113.39
Resistance: 4,157.00, 4,163.16, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
ISM Services PMI (14:00 UTC today, f/c 55.7) and its Prices Paid component could materially shift this read
An H1 close above the 4163 Asia high and the 38.2% NFP drop fib breaks the lower highs line and reclaims EMA(20)
Failure to hold the weekly open at 4141 exposes the 4125 friday low, then the 4113 8-week low
The 4200 round number has rejected three times this week; acceptance above it would change the range read
Wednesday's 4219 high and Friday's 4227 post-NFP spike both reversed during NY hours. Friday's move unwound to 4125 as yields held near highs despite the 29K payrolls miss, while the 4192–4197 range cap sold off repeatedly through the week. Asia session has lifted price from the 4141 weekly open back to EMA(20) near 4159, but it remains below the ema50 and the 38.2% fib of Friday's drop around 4164–4165, with RSI(14) near 47 and a shallow higher-lows line from Tuesday's 4113 intact underneath.
Support: 4,141.32, 4,125.22, 4,113.39
Resistance: 4,165.00, 4,196.79, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC today (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read; a hot print or firm Prices Paid would line up with yields pressing higher
H1 close above the ema50 / 38.2% fib near 4165 opens the path back toward the 4192–4197 range cap
Failure to hold the 4141 weekly open exposes the friday low at 4125 and the higher-lows line near 4134
Loss of the 8-week low at 4113 would break the week's range floor
H1 close above the 4227 nfp high would end the run of rejections above 4200
01:08 UTC
Range-bound, below EMAs after NFP reversal · RSI 48 · price 4,155.47
4113–4227 range; lower half after failed break above 4200.
Gold has rotated inside a 4113–4227 range all week, with every push through 4190–4227 sold. Friday's spike to the 4227 week high on the 29K NFP miss reversed to the 4125 friday low within three NY-session hours as the 10-year yield held near 5.29%, leaving a false break above 4200. Monday's Asia session has lifted price from the 4141 weekly open to 4155, just under the ema20 at 4158, the ema50 at 4164 and the 38.2% retracement of the Friday drop, with RSI(14) neutral at 48.
Support: 4,141.32, 4,125.22, 4,113.39
Resistance: 4,158.40, 4,163.90, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC today (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read; a hot print with firm Prices Paid puts the friday low at 4125 back in focus
H1 close above the ema50 near 4164 and the 38.2% Friday-drop retracement reopens 4196 and the 4200–4227 week high zone
Loss of the 4141 weekly open and a break of the higher-low line through 4125 exposes the 8-week low at 4113
US 10-year yield above ~5.30% has capped every rally this week; a pullback in yields is the condition that has lifted gold
4111–4227 weekly range; post-NFP lower high at 4150 capping the Asia open.
The week held a 4111–4227 range. Monday's week low stayed intact, while Wednesday's push to 4219 and Friday's NFP spike to the 4227 week high were both rejected. The NFP move unwound roughly $100 in the NY session as long-end yields climbed despite the 29K payrolls miss. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 4158 with RSI(14) around 40, and the Asia session open is compressing between the Friday close at 4139 and the post-NFP high at 4150, just under the 23.6% retracement of the NFP drop.
Support: 4,139.46, 4,125.22, 4,111.33
Resistance: 4,149.81, 4,158.00, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
ISM Services PMI Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 4125 NFP low breaks the rising lows line from the week low and exposes 4111
Close above the 4150 post-NFP high and ema20 near 4158 reopens the 50% fib of the NFP drop near 4176
A renewed approach to the 4200–4227 week high zone tests the range top that has rejected twice