XAU/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Monday, 5 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the XAU/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, basing in a range · RSI 42 · price 4,137.07
Lower highs from 4170.34; 4125–4145 range since NY low.
Monday's London high at 4170.3 gave way in the NY session as the 10Y yield pushed to 5.34% and USD made a fresh YTD high. A sweep of the earlier Asian low printed the 4123.3 day low and was reclaimed, but buyers held only the NY lows near 4125.5. Early Tuesday Asian session capped at the 4145.3 Asian high, below the 4148.3 lower high, and price is now drifting onto the 4136.5 session low, under EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 4,136.50, 4,125.50, 4,123.30
Resistance: 4,145.30, 4,148.30, 4,170.30
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4136.5 session low puts the 4125.5 NY lows and 4123.3 day low back in play
M15 close above the 4145.3 Asian high and 4148.3 lower high clears the 50% fib of the London-NY drop and breaks the lower-high sequence
London high at 4170.3 caps the day; the lower-high read holds while price stays below it
ADP 12:15 UTC, then Williams 13:05 and Bowman 14:45 UTC Tuesday, with the 10Y vs 5.34%, could shift this read
23:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, flat since NY low · RSI 47 · price 4,139.25
Tight post-NY range 4137.5–4145.3 after lower high from 4170.
Gold rolled over from the 4170.34 London high, then swept the Asian low into a 4123.30 day low during NY hours as 10y yields held near 5.34% and ISM prices paid hit 74. The bounce has stalled in a 4137.5–4145.3 range through the daily close and into early Asia, near the 38.2% of the recovery fib off the day low, with RSI(14) neutral at 47.
Support: 4,137.45, 4,123.30
Resistance: 4,145.29, 4,148.33
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4137.5 range low reopens the 4123–4125 day low
Acceptance above the 4145.3 range high and 4148.3 ny swing hi breaks the post-NY lower-high sequence
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman speak Tuesday; a hawkish lean with yields near 5.34% could materially shift this read
23:18 UTC
Intraday downtrend from London high, flattening · RSI 44 · price 4,138.53
Lower highs since the 4170.34 London high; tight 4137–4145 range into early Asia.
NY hours flushed gold from 4166 to a 4123.30 day low as the 10y yield held near 5.34% and ISM prices paid printed 74. The rebound stalled at the 50% fib of that drop. Tuesday's Asia session opened with a rejection at the 4145.29 asia high, and price is now pressing the 4137.45 late ny low with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 4,137.45, 4,133.68, 4,123.30
Resistance: 4,145.29, 4,148.33, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4137.45 late ny low breaks the range floor and exposes the 4133.68 higher low
Failure at 4133.68 leaves the 4123.30 day low, with the digest's $4,110 two-month low beyond
Close above the 4145.29 asia high, then the 4148.33 lower high and 4150 psych, reclaims the 61.8% fib and invalidates the lower-high read
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) Tuesday could shift this read via the 10y yield
23:05 UTC
Down from London high, recovery stalling · RSI 54 · price 4,140.78
Tight 4137–4145 range after NY low sweep.
London's break above the Asian high failed at 4170.34. NY reversed it as US 10y yields held near 5.34% and ISM prices paid hit 74, sweeping the Asian low to a 4123.30 day low that was quickly reclaimed. The recovery has compressed into a 4137–4145 band near the 38.2% fib of that drop, and early Asia is slipping under the rising line off the NY lows.
Support: 4,137.45, 4,123.30
Resistance: 4,145.29, 4,152.37
What it said to watch
Close back above the 4145.29 session high opens the 50% and 61.8% fib at 4146.82–4152.37
Failure to hold the 4137.45 swing low puts the 4123.30 day low back in play
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) on Tuesday could shift yields and this read
22:48 UTC
Down from London high, grinding recovery · RSI 61 · price 4,143.67
Higher lows off 4123 day low, mid-range of 4123–4170.
The 4170.34 London high gave way to an NY-session slide to the 4123.30 day low as yields and the USD firmed after ISM Prices Paid hit 74. Higher lows since then, from 4125.56 to 4137.45, have lifted price to 4143.67 in early Asia session, just under the 4145.29 asia high. That sits between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the London-NY drop, with RSI(14) near 61 and EMA50 flattening just below price.
Support: 4,137.45, 4,133.68, 4,123.30
Resistance: 4,145.29, 4,148.33, 4,153.04
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4148.33 ny swing high (near the 50% fib of the London-NY drop) opens the 4153 breakdown area
Loss of the 4137.45 higher low breaks the micro chain; below the 4133.68 swing low, the 4123.30 day low is back in play
Fed's Williams 13:05 UTC and Bowman 14:45 UTC Tue, with yields near 5.34%, could materially shift this read
22:33 UTC
Recovering off NY low, stalling under 4144 · RSI 56 · price 4,143.13
Higher lows off the 4123 sweep, compressing 4137–4144.
NY swept the Asian low to a 4123.3 day low as ISM prices paid at 74 fed yield fears. Price then built higher lows into a tight 4137–4144 consolidation that has carried into early Asia. It now sits between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the 4170–4123 drop, pressing the 4144 range top where EMA50 converges, with RSI(14) ~56 and ATR(14) ~470 pips.
Support: 4,137.50, 4,133.70, 4,123.30
Resistance: 4,144.40, 4,148.30, 4,152.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4144 range top exposes the 4148.3 swing high and the fib 61.8 at 4152.4
Loss of the 4137.5 range base and the 4133.7 higher low reopens the 4123.3 day low
Tuesday ADP (12:15 UTC), Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could shift yields and this read
London high 4170.34 rejected, NY low 4123.30; higher lows since, compressing 4137–4144.
Monday's London rally was rejected at 4170.34, and NY sold off to a 4123.30 day low as the US 10y yield pushed toward 5.34% and ISM prices paid at 74 kept hike odds alive. Higher lows since then have retraced to the 38.2% fib of the NY sell-off near 4141. The new Asia session opened with a 4144.42 session high, and price is coiled in a 4137–4144 range under EMA50.
Support: 4,137.45, 4,123.30
Resistance: 4,144.42, 4,148.33, 4,163.16
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4148.33 swing high clears the 50% fib (4146.8) and opens 4152 (61.8%), with the 4163.16 asian high beyond
Break of the higher-lows line and the 4137.45 range low exposes the 4123.30 day low
Asia session tends to be thin; range edges at 4137.45 and the 4144.42 session high are the near-term markers
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) on Tuesday could move yields and shift this read
21:47 UTC
Down from London high, basing in late NY · RSI 57 · price 4,140.38
Higher lows off day low, capped under 4144 late high.
The London high at 4170.34 gave way in NY as 10y yields pressed ~5.34% and ISM prices paid printed 74. The 15:15 UTC sweep of the Asian low to the 4123.30 day low recovered, and price is now compressing on rising lows into the 38.2% retrace and the 4144.07 late high in thin end-of-session trade.
Support: 4,137.45, 4,123.30
Resistance: 4,144.07, 4,148.33
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4144.07 late high clears the 38.2% retrace and exposes the 4148.33 ny high near the 50% level
Break of the 4137.45 higher low breaks the rising-lows line and reopens the 4123.30 day low
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) Tue could materially shift this read
21:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, basing after NY low · RSI 54 · price 4,140.38
Higher lows compressing under 4144 after sweep of 4123.
NY hours unwound London's 4166–4170 range to a 4123.30 day low as ISM Prices Paid at 74 and a ~5.34% 10y weighed. That wick was swept and reclaimed, and late-NY has printed a higher low at 4137.45 under a 4144 range top, near the 38.2%–50% retrace zone of the NY drop. Price is sitting just under EMA50, with the ism high at 4148.33 above.
Support: 4,137.45, 4,123.30
Resistance: 4,144.07, 4,148.33
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4144 range top (50% retrace) exposes the 4148.33 ism high
Loss of the 4137.45 higher low breaks the rising-lows line and reopens the 4123.30 day low
Thin post-NY trade into Asia session; Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) Tuesday could materially shift this read
London extended above the Asian high to 4170.34 before NY sold off as US 10y yields pressed ~5.34% and ISM prices paid printed 74. The drop swept below the Asian low to a 4123.30 session low, then a late-NY bounce built higher lows from 4125.56 but has stalled near the 38.2% retrace of the London-NY drop, compressing under the 4144 late NY cap.
Support: 4,137.45, 4,123.30
Resistance: 4,144.07, 4,148.33, 4,163.16
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4137.45 higher low breaks the late-NY higher-low chain and reopens the 4123.30 session low
Close above the 4144 late NY cap and the 4148 ISM high clears the 38.2% retrace and puts the 4163 Asian high back in view
Thin Asia session ahead; ADP 12:15 UTC and Fed's Williams 13:05 UTC on Tuesday could reset this range
21:08 UTC
Intraday down from London high, late-NY stabilisation · RSI 57 · price 4,140.38
Lower high at 4170, Asian-low false break at 4123, rising lows into late-NY compression.
London was rejected at a 4170.34 day high, then NY broke the Asian low to a 4123.30 day low before reclaiming it as the US 10y pushed toward ~5.34% and ISM prices paid printed 74. Late NY is compressing between 4137.45 and 4144.07 on rising lows. Price sits just under the 38.2% fib of the 4170–4123 drop near 4141, with the 4148.30 ny cap above.
Support: 4,137.45, 4,123.30
Resistance: 4,144.07, 4,148.30, 4,170.34
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4144.07 late ny high clears the 38.2% fib; the 4148.30 ny cap and 61.8% near 4152.4 come next
Loss of the 4137.45 late ny low breaks the rising lows line and reopens the 4123.30 day low
Failure under the 4123.30 day low would undo the false break of the Asian low
Tue ADP 12:15 UTC, Fed's Williams 13:05 UTC and Bowman 14:45 UTC could shift yields and this read
Lower highs from 4170; post-sweep bounce stalled at 38.2%.
Gold failed at 4170 in early London. It then made a lower high at 4166.31 and broke lower from the NY open as yields firmed and ISM prices paid at 74 kept hike odds alive. The 15:15 UTC spike to the 4123.30 day low swept the Asian low at 4124.64 and was rejected. Since then, rising lows from the NY low shelf have lifted price to the 38.2% retrace, where it is drifting just under the 50% fib at 4144.8 in thin late-NY trade.
Support: 4,137.45, 4,123.30
Resistance: 4,144.80, 4,148.30, 4,166.31
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 50% fib at 4144.8 opens the 4148.3 prior high, with the 4166.31 lower high above that
Losing the 4137.45 swing low breaks the rising lows and exposes the NY low shelf and the 4123.30 day low
A break below the 4123.30 day low extends the lower-low sequence
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) Tue could shift the yield-driven read
Lower highs from 4170 day high; rising lows off 4123 sweep low into a tight 4137–4144 band.
Gold faded from the 4170.34 London day high through NY as USD printed fresh YTD highs and yields held near 5.34%. Price swept the Asian low with a 4123.30 day low before reclaiming it. Late NY has built rising lows from the 4125.56 base and a 4137.45 higher low, with price stalling at the 38.2% retrace near 4141 just under the 4144.07 late NY high.
Support: 4,137.45, 4,125.56, 4,123.30
Resistance: 4,144.07, 4,148.33, 4,170.34
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4144.07 late NY high clears the 38.2% retrace and puts the 4148.33 swing high and 50% (~4147) in play
Loss of the 4137.45 higher low and the rising lows line shifts focus back to the 4125.56 base and 4123.30 day low
Asia session into Tue: Fed's Williams and Bowman could reprice yields and shift this read; 4170.34 day high caps the session structure
Lower highs from 4170.3; 4123.3 day low held, tight 4137–4144 range into the close.
Gold faded from the 4170.3 London high through NY hours as a fresh USD YTD high and 5.34% 10y yields weighed. A false break of the Asian low printed the 4123.3 day low and reversed within the bar. The late-NY bounce stalled at the 4144.1 late high, just above the 38.2% fib of the drop, leaving price parked above the 4133.7 swing low.
Support: 4,133.70, 4,123.30
Resistance: 4,144.10, 4,148.30
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4144.1 late high exposes the 50% fib near 4146.8 and the 4148.3 lower high; clearing that breaks the NY lower-high sequence
Loss of the 4133.7 swing low reopens the 4123.3 day low; a close below it confirms a lower-low beneath the Asian range
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) on Tue, ahead of Wednesday's FOMC Minutes, could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 4123 base, capped below 4148 pivot.
Gold faded from the 4170.3 london high and broke lower at the 14:00 UTC ISM Services release (prices paid 74), with a fresh USD high and 5.34% 10y yields weighing. A brief false break under the 4124.6 Asian low held at the 4123.3 day low twice. Late NY has since built a higher low chain into the 38.2% retrace near 4141, with the swing high at 4144.1 and the pivot high at 4148.3 directly overhead.
Support: 4,135.40, 4,123.30
Resistance: 4,144.10, 4,148.30, 4,170.30
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4148.3 pivot high (50% fib) opens 4152–4153 and the 61.8% retrace
Loss of the 4135.4 higher low puts the 4123.3 day low back in play
Tue ADP 12:15 UTC and Fed's Williams 13:05 / Bowman 14:45 could materially shift this read
Thin Asia session liquidity may stall the bounce below the 4144.1 swing high
Gold bled from the 4170 London high through NY as the USD printed a fresh YTD high and ISM prices paid jumped to 74. The drop swept the Asian low to the 4123.30 sweep low, then based near 4125.6. Late NY hours are building higher lows back to the 38.2% fib of the 4170–4123 drop near 4141, with the 4148 ISM high capping above.
Support: 4,135.40, 4,123.30
Resistance: 4,148.30, 4,152.40, 4,170.34
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4148.3 ISM high opens the 61.8% fib at 4152.4
Loss of the 4135.4 higher low breaks the higher lows chain and returns focus to the 4123.3 sweep low
Recovery stalling below the ISM high keeps the 4170 London high out of reach
Tue ADP (12:15 UTC), Fed's Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) could reset the intraday read, with 10y yields near 5.34% the swing factor
19:18 UTC
Intraday downtrend from London high, late-NY bounce · RSI 49 · price 4,141.20
Higher-low chain off the NY sweep low, capped near 4143.
London set the day high at 4170.34. NY then reversed it, swept the Asian low (4124.64) to a 4123.30 sweep low and chopped around ISM, where Prices Paid at 74 kept yields sticky. Late NY has built a higher-low chain back to the 38.2% retrace near 4141. Price is just above EMA20 (~4139) and below EMA50 (~4143); RSI(14) is neutral at 49.
Support: 4,135.90, 4,123.30
Resistance: 4,143.65, 4,148.30
What it said to watch
A close above the 4143.65 local high and the 4148.3 swing high opens the 50–61.8% retrace zone at 4147–4152
A break below the 4135.9 higher low ends the late-NY recovery sequence and exposes the 4123.3 sweep low
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) on Tuesday could materially shift this read via yields
18:48 UTC
Intraday down from day high, stabilising late NY · RSI 49 · price 4,138.02
Lower highs from 4170.3, NY low sweep at 4123.3, rising lows since.
London took out the Asian high and printed a 4170.3 day high. NY then reversed the move: selling around ISM, where Prices Paid at 74 kept yields sticky, swept the 4124.6 Asian low to a 4123.3 session low. Late NY is holding NY lows near 4125.5 and building rising lows, with price capped at the 4141.7 swing high, which sits on the 38.2% retrace. RSI(14) is neutral near 49.
Support: 4,133.70, 4,125.50, 4,123.30
Resistance: 4,141.70, 4,148.30, 4,170.30
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4141.7 swing high opens the ism high at 4148.3 and the 50% retrace
Loss of the 4133.7 rising lows puts the 4125.5 NY lows back in play
Acceptance below the 4123.3 session low exposes the 4,110 two-month low
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) on Tuesday could reset this range; the 4170.3 day high caps the session
18:33 UTC
Intraday downtrend off London high, stabilising late NY · RSI 50 · price 4,138.21
Lower highs from 4170; higher lows building off the 4123 sweep low.
London's push to the 4170.3 london high failed. NY unwound the move after the in-line ISM Services print, with Prices Paid at 74 keeping yields sticky, and a 15:15 UTC sweep of the 4124.6 asian low to the 4123.3 sweep low closed back inside. Late NY is printing higher lows up to the 4141.7 bounce high, which sits at the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 4,133.70, 4,124.60, 4,123.30
Resistance: 4,141.70, 4,148.30, 4,170.30
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4141.7 bounce high (38.2% fib) opens the 4148.3 swing high, near the 50% retracement
Loss of the 4133.7 higher low puts the asian low and sweep low at 4124.6–4123.3 back in play
Tuesday ADP (12:15 UTC) and Fed's Williams/Bowman (13:05/14:45 UTC) are the next scheduled catalysts. The calendar is clear through Asia
Lower highs from 4170.3 london high; Asian low swept to 4123.3 and reclaimed, higher low at 4125.6.
London's break above the Asian high to the 4170.3 london high failed, and NY sold through the ISM release as Prices Paid at 74 kept yields sticky. The drop swept the Asian low to a 4123.3 day low before reclaiming it, and a 4125.6 higher low followed. Late-NY bounce capped at the 4141.7 bounce high, near the 38.2% fib, under the lower-highs line and both EMAs with RSI(14) at 39.
Support: 4,125.60, 4,123.30, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,141.70, 4,148.30, 4,170.30
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4141.7 bounce high and the lower-highs line opens the 4148.3 lower high and the 50% fib
Failure at the 4125.6 higher low and a break of the 4123.3 day low resume the downtrend toward the 4110 2-month low
No US data in the next 8h; the Asian session range against 4123.3–4141.7 defines the next break
Fed's Williams/Bowman (Tue) and FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) are the next event risk via yields and USD
Lower highs since NY open; session low swept and held, tight base above it.
London's 4170.34 high gave way at NY open, and price fell through the Asian range low after ISM Services prices paid at 74 kept yields firm. The sweep to the 4123.30 session low was reclaimed, but lower highs at the 4148.30 NY high and 4133.22 recent high keep the drop intact. Price sits only about 19% into the London-NY drop retracement.
Support: 4,123.30, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,133.22, 4,148.30
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4133.22 recent high and the lower-highs trendline would mark the first break in the NY sequence
Acceptance below the 4123.30 session low exposes the 4110 2-month low
Only a reclaim of the 4141–4147 zone (38.2–50% of the London-NY drop) would neutralise the downtrend read
Tue ADP (12:15 UTC) and Fed's Williams/Bowman could reset the range ahead of Wednesday's FOMC Minutes
Lower highs from the London high at 4170.3; Asian low swept, price compressing above the session low.
NY session unwound the London rally from the 4170.3 London high. ISM Services prices paid at 74 kept yields firm, and lower highs have stepped down since. The sweep of the 4124.6 Asian low to a 4123.3 session low was briefly reclaimed, but price is now compressing at 4125–4133, capped by the minor high, with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 4,123.30, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,133.00, 4,148.30, 4,170.30
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4123.3 session low confirms a lower-low and puts the 4110 2-month low in view
Close back above the 4133 minor high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the compression lower
4146.8–4148.3 (50% fib of the London high-session low drop, prior lower high) is the area to watch for rejection or break on any bounce
Fed's Williams and Bowman Tue 13:05/14:45 UTC, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
17:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs into a flat base · RSI 38 · price 4,130.06
NY reversed the London high; lower highs pressing a 4123–4126 base.
NY open turned London's push to the 4170.34 london high into a $47 London-NY drop. The 15:15 UTC sweep of the Asian low (4124.64) to a 4123.30 session low snapped back, but rebounds stalled at the 4148.33 ny high as ISM Prices Paid at 74 and a YTD-high USD kept yields in charge. After London close, ny lower highs at 4140.94 and 4132.93 are compressing price into a flat 4123–4126 base, with RSI(14) near 38 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 4,123.30, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,132.93, 4,148.33, 4,170.34
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4123.30 session low breaks the base and exposes the 4110 2-month low
M15 close above the 4132.93 lower high breaks the ny lower highs line; 4148.33 ny high is the next cap
Fed's Williams (Tue 13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
17:06 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 41 · price 4,131.22
Failed London break of the Asian high; NY unwound the move and probed below the Asian low.
London cleared the 4124–4163 Asian range high to a 4170 session high and failed there. NY then unwound the move after ISM Prices Paid jumped to 74 with the USD at YTD highs, and a 4123 sweep low below the Asian range was rejected. Lower highs still cap the tape, and price is grinding near the 4126 swing low late in the NY session, below both EMAs.
Support: 4,126.34, 4,123.30, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,141.27, 4,148.33, 4,170.34
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4126 swing low and the 4123 sweep low exposes the 4110 2-month low
A reclaim of the 38.2% fib at 4141 and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain, with the 4148 lower high next
Fed's Williams (Tue 13:05 UTC), Bowman (14:45 UTC) and ADP (12:15 UTC) could reset the intraday range via yields
16:47 UTC
Downtrend from London high, momentum fading near lows · RSI 36 · price 4,130.31
Lower highs since 4170.34; 4123.30 session low swept and reclaimed, price drifting back toward it late NY.
London's push to the 4170.30 day high gave way in NY. Gold slid as the 74 ISM Prices Paid print and a YTD-high USD kept yields firm, and the 4123.30 session low swept the Asian low before bouncing. Each NY rebound has printed a lower high, with the ny high at 4148.30 near the 50% fib and the latest lower high at 4140.90. Price is now grinding along the descending trendline at 4130 with RSI(14) near 36 and an ATR of about 890 pips ($8.9).
Support: 4,123.30, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,140.90, 4,148.30, 4,170.30
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4140.90 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain; the ny high at 4148.30 and the 50% fib sit just above
Failure to hold the 4123.30 session low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 4110 two-mo low
Fed's Williams (Tue 13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could materially shift this read via yields
Lower highs from London-open peak; Asian low swept, now retesting it.
Gold printed its session high at 4170.34 at the London open, then put in a run of lower highs into the NY session. The 4140.9 bounce high and the 4148.3 lower high now sit overhead. The USD at a YTD high and a jump in ISM Prices Paid to 74 fed the NY selloff, which swept the Asian low to the 4123.30 sweep low. After London close, price has drifted back to retest that low, with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 4,123.30, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,140.90, 4,148.30, 4,170.34
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4123.30 sweep low exposes the 4110 2-month low
Reclaim of the 4140.90 bounce high would break the lower-highs line; the 4148.30 lower high sits above that
Back above the 4170.34 session high is needed to negate the intraday downtrend
Fed's Williams and Bowman on Tuesday, with US 10y yields near 5.3%, could materially shift this read
16:18 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 33 · price 4,130.03
London high at 4170.34 reversed; NY lower highs and lows, 4123.30 sweep reclaimed and now retested.
NY session unwound the London high at 4170.34 with a run of lower highs capped at the 4148.33 lower high, as the USD printed a fresh YTD high and ISM Prices Paid at 74 kept the yield headwind in place. The 15:15 UTC sweep of the Asian low to the 4123.30 day low was rejected back to the minor high at 4140.94, but price is again pressing 4130 with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 4,123.30, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,140.94, 4,148.33, 4,170.34
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4123.30 day low turns the sweep into a lower-low and exposes the 4110 2m low
Close above the 4140.94 minor high and the NY lower highs trendline (~4137) breaks the intraday sequence; 4148.33 lower high sits above
Reclaim of 4148.33 reopens the 4170.34 london high
Fed's Williams (Tue 13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could shift the yield-driven read
16:04 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 36 · price 4,135.88
Lower highs off 4170 London high; NY range 4123–4148 after Asian-low sweep.
Gold rolled over from the 4170.34 London high. The NY open drop broke through 4140 as the USD printed fresh YTD highs, and ISM Prices Paid at 74 kept yields firm. After London close, price is boxed between the 4123.30 sweep low and the 4148.33 NY high, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 36. The 15:15 UTC dip swept the Asian low at 4124.64 and was reclaimed, while the NY swing low at 4131.46 is the nearer pivot.
Support: 4,131.46, 4,123.30, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,148.33, 4,152.37, 4,170.34
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4123.30 sweep low confirms a lower low and exposes the 4110 2-month low
Close above the 4148.33 NY high, then the 61.8% fib at 4152.37, breaks the lower-high sequence back toward the london high
Loss of the 4131.46 ny swing low puts the sweep low back in play
No US data in the next 8h; Williams (Tue 13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) are the next scheduled risk to this read
Lower highs from London high, NY sweep of Asian low reclaimed.
NY session unwound London's push to the 4170.3 london high. The slide began in the first hour of NY and ran through ISM, with Prices Paid at 74 keeping the yield headwind on, before a wick to the 4123.3 session low swept the 4124.6 Asian low and closed back above it. Lower highs at 4166.3 and 4148.3 have capped the bounce near the 50% retrace of the drop, price is back near the 4131.5 swing low, and RSI(14) is near 33.
Support: 4,131.50, 4,123.30
Resistance: 4,148.30, 4,163.20, 4,170.30
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4123.3 session low negates the sweep reclaim and exposes the $4,110 two-month low
Close above the 4148.3 lower high and the 50% retrace breaks the lower-highs chain, opening the 4163.2 asian high
Failure to hold the 4131.5 swing low keeps the NY lower-low sequence intact
Fed's Williams and Bowman on Tue could shift the yield-driven read ahead of Wednesday's FOMC Minutes
15:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 37 · price 4,137.41
Lower-high sequence from 4170.34; NY bounce capped at 4148.33.
Gold has printed lower highs since the 4170.34 london high, with the 4166.31 lower high marking the last failed push. Price slid to a 4131.46 ny low as the USD held YTD highs and ISM Prices Paid at 74 kept yields firm. The post-ISM bounce met rejection at the 4148.33 ny high inside the fib 38.2–50% zone, and price is back near 4137, still above the 4124.64 asian low.
Support: 4,131.46, 4,124.64
Resistance: 4,148.33, 4,166.31, 4,170.34
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4131.46 ny low exposes the 4124.64 asian low
Close above the 4148.33 ny high breaks the lower-highs trendline and voids the intraday downtrend read
Recovery through the 4166.31 lower high and 4170.34 london high would reset structure
ADP 4-wk avg (Tue 12:15 UTC) and Williams (13:05 UTC) could shift yields and this read
15:18 UTC
Downtrend from the London high, momentum soft · RSI 38 · price 4,137.41
Lower highs since 12:30 UTC, back inside the Asian range.
London's push through the asian high to the 4170.34 session high failed. NY then dropped price back into the Asian range, printing a 4131.46 ny low. The post-ISM bounce stalled at 4148.33, a lower high near the 38.2–50% fib, as Prices Paid at 74 kept the yield and USD headwind in place.
Support: 4,131.46, 4,124.64
Resistance: 4,148.33, 4,163.16, 4,170.34
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4131.46 ny low exposes the 4124.64 asian low, which matches Friday's 4125 low
Failure at the asian low leaves the $4,110 two-month low as the next reference
M15 close above the 4148.33 lower high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the NY lower-high sequence
Recovery above 4163.16 would put price back above the asian high and negate the false break read
Fed's Williams (Tue 13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) are the next scheduled catalysts
15:04 UTC
Intraday downtrend, NY bounce in progress · RSI 44 · price 4,146.71
Lower highs off the london high, NY low at 4131.46, retracing toward 50% fib.
London's push above the asian high failed at the 4170.34 london high. Lower highs then gave way in NY hours to a 4131.46 ny low as the USD held near YTD highs and the 74 ISM Prices Paid kept yields firm. The bounce is testing the 38.2% fib near 4146, below the 50% fib at 4150.9, with RSI(14) at 44 and ATR around 9.
Support: 4,131.46, 4,124.64
Resistance: 4,150.90, 4,163.16, 4,170.34
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 50% fib at 4150.9 breaks the lower-high sequence and opens 4163 asian high
Failure to hold the 4131.46 ny low exposes the 4124.64 asian low
Rejection at the lower-highs trendline keeps the 4170.34 london high out of reach
Long-end US yields and Fed's Williams/Bowman (Tue 13:05/14:45 UTC) could shift this read
14:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 32 · price 4,138.92
Lower highs from 4170.34; NY broke London lows, sits mid-Asian range.
Gold stalled at the 4170.34 London high and has printed lower highs since. It broke the London lows into a 4131.46 NY low as ISM Prices Paid jumped to 74 and the USD held near YTD highs. The ISM-hour bounce was rejected at 4147.17, near the 38.2% fib; price is now in the first hour of NY above the 4124.64 Asian low, with RSI(14) near 32.
Support: 4,131.46, 4,124.64
Resistance: 4,147.17, 4,170.34
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4131.46 ny low exposes the 4124.64 asian low and Friday's 4125 base
Reclaim of the 4147.17 ism high breaks the lower-highs line and the 38.2% fib, neutralising the downtrend read
A break of the asian low brings the $4,110 two-month low into play
Williams (Tue 13:05 UTC) and Bowman (Tue 14:45 UTC) could shift the yield-driven read ahead of Wednesday's FOMC Minutes
14:32 UTC
Intraday down leg, lower highs from London peak · RSI 34 · price 4,136.49
London range 4154–4170 broken lower in NY; post-data bounce capped at 38.2%.
Into the first hour of NY, gold broke the 4154 range floor of the London session and printed a 4131.46 ny low, with the YTD-high USD keeping rallies capped. The 14:00 UTC ISM spike stalled at 4147.17, near the 38.2% retrace of the 4170.34–4131.46 drop. Price is back at 4136 with RSI(14) near 34, and the 4124.64 asian low and Friday's 4125.22 form a double-low zone just below.
Support: 4,131.46, 4,124.64
Resistance: 4,147.17, 4,154.00, 4,170.34
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4124.64 asian low and Friday's 4125.22 breaks the double-low zone
Recovery above the 4147.17 ism spike high and the 4154 range floor reopens the London range toward the 4170.34 london high
Lower highs from 4170.34 intact while price holds under the 38.2% retrace
ISM Services Prices Paid (prev 72.6) still feeding through yields and USD; a hot component read could extend pressure toward the 4110 two-month low
14:18 UTC
Intraday downswing, lower highs since London · RSI 38 · price 4,141.91
London range 4151–4170 broken lower in early NY; lower highs 4170.34 / 4168.57 / 4166.31.
Gold printed three lower highs off the 4170.34 session high, then lost the London range floor at 4151.06 in the first hours of NY and slid to a 4131.46 NY low. The 14:00 UTC ISM bar spiked to 4147.17 and faded, which is a rejection at that level. Price now sits on the 61.8% retrace of the Asia-London leg (4124.64–4170.34), with RSI(14) near 38 and ATR(14) about $8.35.
Support: 4,131.46, 4,124.64
Resistance: 4,147.17, 4,151.06, 4,170.34
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4151.06 range floor negates the range break
Failure to hold the 4131.46 NY low exposes the 4124.64 Asian low, which sits just under Friday's 4125.22 low
A move through the 4147.17 ISM spike high tests the lower-highs line from the 4170.34 session high
ISM Services actual and Prices Paid not yet in the data; a hot prices component could extend this leg
14:05 UTC
Intraday down-leg from London high, RSI soft · RSI 36 · price 4,138.30
Lower highs from 4170.3; NY-hours break back into the lower half of the Asian range.
London set the session high at 4170.3, just above the Asian range top. Rejection there produced lower highs at 4168.6 and 4166.3, and the break of the 4147.1 broken low into NY hours drove price to a 4131.5 NY low, beyond the 61.8% of the Asian-London leg. Price is pinned in the lower Asian range into ISM Services, RSI(14) ~36, with the 4124.6 Asian low (near Friday's 4125 low) the next floor.
Support: 4,131.46, 4,124.64
Resistance: 4,147.09, 4,166.31, 4,170.34
What it said to watch
ISM Services (14:00 UTC, f/c 55) and Prices Paid due now; a hot print adds pressure on the 4124.6 Asian low, a soft one tests the 4147.1 broken low
Failure to hold the 4131.5 NY low exposes the 4124.6 Asian low; a break there marks a lower low below the Asian range
M15 close back above the 4147.1 broken low eases the down-leg read
Lower-highs trendline from 4170.3 caps at ~4166; a close above the 4166.3 lower high and the 4170.3 London high breaks the sequence
Lower highs from 4170.3; London range floor at 4151 broken.
London lifted gold above the Asian high to a 4170.3 session high. Lower highs then formed, and the first hour of NY broke the 4151 range floor and the fib 61.8 at 4142, retracing about 75% of the Asian low–session high leg, with RSI(14) near 33. The slide came with the USD near its YTD high into ISM Services; the 4130 swing low and the 4124.6 Asian low, near Friday's post-NFP low, sit below.
Support: 4,130.10, 4,124.60
Resistance: 4,142.10, 4,151.10, 4,170.30
What it said to watch
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) could materially shift this read; a hot Prices Paid puts the asian low at 4124.6 in play
M15 close back above the fib 61.8 at 4142 and the 4151 range floor would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 4130 swing low and 4124.6 asian low confirms a lower-low below Friday's low
Only a recovery through the 4170.3 session high resumes the London advance
13:32 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since London · RSI 44 · price 4,152.50
London failed above Asian high; lower highs and lows inside 4147–4170.
London cleared the Asian high at 4163.16 but stalled at 4170.34. Price has printed lower highs at 4168.57 and 4166.31 since then and is back inside the Asian range ahead of ISM Services, sitting near the 38.2% fib of the 4124.64–4170.34 rally, with the session low at 4147.09 aligned with the 50% level. RSI(14) is neutral near 44 and price is below both EMAs, while the USD's YTD-high bid has capped every rally.
Support: 4,147.09, 4,142.10, 4,124.64
Resistance: 4,163.16, 4,166.31, 4,170.34
What it said to watch
S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) could materially shift this read; ATR near 690 pips sets the expected bar size
Failure to hold the 4147.09 session low exposes the 61.8% fib at 4142.10 and the 4124.64 asian low
A close above the lower high at 4166.31 breaks the descending trendline; the 4170.34 london high caps the range above
Price back above the 4163.16 asian high would undo the false break read
13:17 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since London peak · RSI 45 · price 4,153.27
Lower highs and lower lows off 4170 session high, holding 50% fib.
Asia swept Friday's 4125 low to 4124.64. London then pushed through the Asian range to a 4170.34 session high, but rejections at 4170, 4168.6 and 4166.3 have set a lower-high sequence, with yields and a firm USD capping gold per the digest. Price is back below the ema20 into the NY open, and the 4147.09 swing low sits on the 50% retracement of the Asian low–session high leg. RSI(14) is ~45 and ATR is ~$6.7.
Support: 4,147.09, 4,124.64
Resistance: 4,158.50, 4,166.31, 4,170.34
What it said to watch
S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55, prices paid) could materially shift this read within the next bar or two
M15 close below the 4147.09 swing low breaks the 50% fib and opens the path toward the 4124.64 asian low
Close back above the ema20 near 4158.5, then the 4166.31 lower high, breaks the descending trendline; 4170.34 session high is the next cap
13:06 UTC
Range after London push, momentum flat · RSI 49 · price 4,157.84
4151–4170 range with a lower high at 4166.3.
London lifted gold off the london base near 4134 and through the Asian high at 4163 to a session high of 4170.34. Since then it has held a 4151–4170 range, with a rejection at 4168.6 and a lower high at 4166.3. RSI(14) is neutral near 49 and price sits just under EMA20. The bounce from Friday's soft NFP has stalled as a firm USD caps upside.
Support: 4,151.06, 4,134.39, 4,124.64
Resistance: 4,166.31, 4,170.34, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) and S&P Composite PMI at 13:45 UTC could break the range either way
Close below the 4151 swing low exposes the london base at 4134 and the 0.5 fib near 4147
Close above the 4170 session high voids the lower-high read; 4200 round number is next
Loss of the rising support from the 4124.6 asian low turns the London advance into a failed push
London broke above the Asian range, now holding a 4151–4170 band with higher lows.
Gold climbed from the 4124.64 Asian low through the 4163.16 Asian high in London, printing a 4170.34 session high, and has since consolidated in a 4151–4170 band. The 4151.06 pullback low held near the 38.2% fib, but price is back below the Asian high. RSI(14) is neutral near 50 and price sits on EMA20 ahead of ISM Services, with yields and a firm USD still capping the upside.
Support: 4,151.06, 4,124.64
Resistance: 4,163.16, 4,170.34, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
S&P Global PMI (13:45 UTC) and ISM Services with prices paid (14:00 UTC, f/c 55) early in the NY session could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 4170.34 session high extends the London breakout and opens the path to the 4200 round number
Break below the 4151.06 pullback low and rising support undoes the Asian range breakout and exposes the 4124.64 asian low
Repeated failure at the 4163.16 asian high turns that level into a cap on the range
4151–4170 London range above the Asian high pivot, lower highs at the top.
Gold rallied from the 4124.64 Asian low, and London broke the 4163.16 Asian high to set a 4170.34 London high. Lower highs at 4170/4168.6 have since capped a 4151–4170 range, and the 11:45 UTC dip held the 4151.06 swing low near the 38.2% fib of the Asian-London leg. Price sits on the Asian high pivot into NY with RSI(14) neutral near 52, while a firm USD and near-record yields cap the bounce from two-month lows.
Support: 4,151.06, 4,124.64
Resistance: 4,163.16, 4,170.34, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55, Prices Paid) could materially shift this read in the first hour of NY
M15 close above the 4170.34 london high breaks the lower highs line and the range top; the 4200 round number is the next reference
Failure to hold the 4151.06 swing low exposes the 50–61.8% fib zone at 4147–4142 and then the 4124.64 asian low
Repeated M15 closes back below the 4163.16 asian high keep price inside the range rather than extending the breakout
12:17 UTC
Range after Asia rebound, momentum fading · RSI 42 · price 4,155.63
London pushed above the Asian high, repeated rejection at 4168–4170, lower low at 4151.
Gold bounced off the 4124.64 Monday low, which held at Friday's post-NFP low, and London cleared the 4163 Asian high to tag the 4170 London high. Three tests of 4168–4170 have been rejected, and the late-London drop set a 4151 pullback low near the 38.2% retracement of the Asia-London leg. Price is now pinned mid-range below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 42, as a YTD-high USD and elevated yields keep the upside capped.
Support: 4,151.06, 4,147.49, 4,124.64
Resistance: 4,163.16, 4,170.34, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
S&P PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55, Prices Paid) could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 4170 London high breaks the triple rejection at the range top
A close back above the 4163 Asian high is needed to put the range top back in focus
Failure to hold the 4151 pullback low exposes the 50% fib near 4147, then the 4124.64 Monday low
The 4200 round number remains the upper cap flagged after Friday's failed spike to 4227
Asia low swept Friday's low, London reversed through the Asian high, now 4151–4170 range.
Gold swept Friday's 4125 low late in the Asia session at 4124.64, then London lifted it through the asian high to a 4170.34 session high. The 11:30 UTC rejection at 4168.6 dropped price back below the asian high. The swing low at 4151 has held since, with RSI(14) near 46 into ISM Services.
Support: 4,151.06, 4,124.64
Resistance: 4,163.16, 4,170.34, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4151 swing low opens the 50–61.8% retracement of the Asia-London leg at 4147–4142, with the asian low at 4125 beneath
Close back above the asian high at 4163 and then the session high at 4170 would break the range top; the 4200 psych cap from the digest sits above
S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55, Prices Paid) during NY hours could materially shift this read
11:48 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Asia low stalling, rolling over · RSI 42 · price 4,154.10
London broke the Asian high but was capped at 4170; double top with price testing the 4155.7 neckline.
London pushed through the Asian high at 4163.2 to a 4170.3 session high. It was rejected there four times, and the 11:30 UTC bar dropped $12 to the 4155.7 neckline, which is also the 38.2% fib of the 4124.6–4170.3 rally. RSI(14) is near 42, price is below the EMA20 and sitting on the EMA50, with gold still capped by firm USD and yields ahead of ISM Services.
Support: 4,147.00, 4,134.40, 4,124.60
Resistance: 4,155.70, 4,163.20, 4,170.30
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4155.7 neckline negates the double top read
Acceptance below the neckline puts the 4147.0 pullback low / 50% fib in play
Failure to hold the 4134.4 rally base exposes the 4124.6 day low
Close above the 4170.3 session high clears the rejection zone
S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) could materially shift this read
11:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 58 · price 4,165.51
Higher lows from the Monday low, triple cap at 4170.
The Asia-session dip to the 4124.64 Monday low swept Friday's post-NFP low and reversed, and the rally broke the 4163 Asian high in London before stalling three times at the 4170 session high. The pullback held the 4155.7 swing low above the rising trendline, and price is retesting 4170 with RSI(14) near 58, despite the USD holding at fresh YTD highs.
Support: 4,163.16, 4,155.69, 4,124.64
Resistance: 4,170.34, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4170 session high breaks the triple cap and opens the path toward 4200 psych, the digest's rejection zone
Failure to hold the 4163 Asian high on this retest returns price to the London range
A break below the 4155.7 swing low and the rising trendline ends the higher-low chain and brings the 4124.6 Monday low back into view
S&P Global PMI (13:45 UTC) and ISM Services plus Prices Paid (14:00 UTC, f/c 55) could reset the session range
Compression 4155–4170 after London push off a swept low.
Gold swept Friday's post-NFP low with a 4124.64 asian low, then rallied through London to a 4170.34 session high. Since then it has been compressing between the 4155.7 swing low and the session high, now sitting just under the 4163.16 asian high, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and firm yields and USD capping rallies per the digest.
Support: 4,155.70, 4,149.45, 4,124.64
Resistance: 4,163.16, 4,170.34, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services with Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 4170.34 session high breaks the London cap and puts 4200 psych back in view
Loss of the 4155.7 swing low, then the 4149.45 london low, exposes the 61.8% fib of the asian low–session high leg near 4142.1 and the 4124.64 asian low
11:05 UTC
Recovering from Asia low, momentum flattening · RSI 54 · price 4,160.64
Higher lows since 4124.6; lower high at 4164.9 under the 4170 session high.
Asia session swept Friday's 4125 low at the 4124.6 asia low, then recovered in a V. London pushed through the 4163 Asian high to a 4170.3 session high, but three tests there stalled. Price is now consolidating near 4160, above the 4155.7 pullback low and roughly a 38.2% retracement of the Asia low-to-high leg, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 4,155.70, 4,147.50, 4,124.60
Resistance: 4,170.30, 4,188.30
What it said to watch
S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services PMI plus Prices Paid at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 4170.3 session high opens the path toward the 4188.3 friday high
A close below the 4155.7 pullback low exposes the 50% fib near 4147.5
Failure to hold the 4124.6 asia low breaks the higher-low sequence
Higher lows off a 4125 double bottom; Asian high broken, capped at 4170.
Monday's Asian session set a double bottom near 4125 against Friday's post-NFP low. London then cleared the 4163.2 Asian high but was rejected three times just under the 4170.3 session high. Price is back on EMA20 at the 4155.7 London low with RSI(14) neutral near 51, and the digest still points to elevated yields and a YTD-high USD capping gold rallies.
Support: 4,155.70, 4,147.00, 4,124.60
Resistance: 4,163.20, 4,170.30, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (S&P PMI 13:45) could materially shift this read; a hot print lifting yields is the digest's downside trigger
M15 close below the 4155.7 london low exposes the 4147 higher low, near 50% of the rally fib
Close above the 4170.3 session high breaks the triple cap and opens the 4200 round number
Loss of the 4124.6 double btm voids the recovery structure
HH/HL from the Asian low; capped at the London high, now retesting the Asian high.
Gold rebuilt from the 4124.64 Asian low after Friday's NFP-miss spike to 4227 fully faded. London broke the 4163.16 Asian high but was rejected three times at the 4170.34 London high, and mid-London price is now back at the Asian high, sitting on EMA20 near the 23.6% fib. RSI(14) is neutral at 54 and ATR(14) is about 640 pips.
Support: 4,155.69, 4,147.82, 4,124.64
Resistance: 4,163.16, 4,170.34
What it said to watch
Holding the 4155.69 pullback low keeps the HH/HL chain from the Asian low intact.
A break of the pullback low exposes the 4147.82 swing low near the 50% fib.
An M15 close back above the 4163.16 Asian high, then the 4170.34 London high, would end the stall at the session high.
US S&P Global PMI (13:45 UTC) and ISM Services PMI (14:00 UTC, f/c 55) could materially shift this read. A hot print with firm prices paid risks a return toward the 4124.64 Asian low.
False break above Asian high, triple test at 4170, pulling back into range.
Early London lifted gold through the 4163 Asian high to a 4170 session high. Three tests there stalled, and price has slipped back below the Asian high to sit on EMA20 near 4157, mid-London. The Asia rebound from 4125 has retraced about 30% so far, with elevated yields and a firm USD still capping rallies per the macro read.
Support: 4,155.99, 4,152.88, 4,147.49
Resistance: 4,163.16, 4,170.34
What it said to watch
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55) and S&P Composite PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 4163 asian high reopens the 4170 session high
Break of the 4156 pullback low exposes the 38.2% fib at 4153
Failure to hold the 50% fib at 4147.5 undercuts the Asia rebound structure
Higher lows from 4125 Asian low; London false break of Asian high, capped at 4170.
London pushed through the Asian high at 4163 to a 4170 session high. Three tests there were rejected, and price has slipped back inside the Asian range, sitting on EMA20 near 4157. The rebound from the 4125 Asian low, which matched Friday's post-NFP low, still holds above the 4148 swing low (50% fib of the 4125–4170 rebound), with firm USD and long-end yields capping gold.
Support: 4,156.00, 4,147.80, 4,124.64
Resistance: 4,163.16, 4,170.34, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) and S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the asian high at 4163 negates the false break; a close above the 4170 session high opens the path toward the 4200 round number
Break of the 4156 pullback low exposes the 4148 swing low and the 38.2–50% fib zone
Failure to hold 4148 puts the 4125 asian low back in focus
09:48 UTC
Intraday uptrend from the Asia low, stalling · RSI 52 · price 4,156.57
Higher lows from 4124.6, triple rejection at 4170, pulling back below the Asian high.
Asia swept Friday's post-NFP low with a dip to 4124.6, then rallied. London pushed above the asian high at 4163.2 to a session high of 4170.3, which rejected three times. Price has slipped back below the asian high and is testing EMA20 near the 38.2% retracement of the rally (~4153); RSI(14) is neutral near 52, with the week's range intact as long-end yields cap gold.
Support: 4,149.50, 4,138.00, 4,124.60
Resistance: 4,163.20, 4,170.30, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian high at 4163.2 reopens the 4170.3 session high; a break there opens the path to 4200 psych
Failure to hold the london low at 4149.5, near the 50% rally fib, exposes the 4138 range floor
Loss of the 4138 range floor puts the 4124.6 asian low back in play
S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
09:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling under session high · RSI 64 · price 4,165.54
Higher lows from 4124.6 Asian low, flat tops at 4170, Asian range high broken.
London broke above the 4163 asian high and set a 4170 session high, extending a higher-low chain off the 4124.6 Asian low as gold firmed on trimmed Fed hike bets after Friday's NFP miss. Price is now compressing in a 4160–4170 band, with RSI(14) near 64 and the rising trendline being tested.
Support: 4,163.16, 4,159.88, 4,147.50
Resistance: 4,170.34, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4163 asian high puts the London breakout in doubt
Loss of the 4159.88 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline; fib 50% at 4147.5 is next
M15 close above the 4170 session high opens the 4200 psych level
S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
Higher-high/higher-low chain from the 4124.6 low; Asian range broken higher.
The Asian dip swept Friday's post-NFP low near 4125. London then lifted price through the asian high at 4163.2 as Fed hike bets eased after the payroll miss, with each higher low holding since 4130. The session high at 4170.3 has capped the last four bars, and price is sitting on the rising trendline with RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 4,163.20, 4,159.90, 4,149.50
Resistance: 4,170.30, 4,188.60, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the asian high at 4163.2 and the rising trendline would put the breakout in doubt
Loss of the 4159.9 higher low breaks the HL chain; the london low at 4149.5 then sits near the 38.2% fib
A close above the 4170.3 session high opens the 4188.6 pre-nfp cap, then the 4200 round number
S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC and ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
09:07 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under session high · RSI 67 · price 4,166.47
Higher lows since late-Asia low; Asian high broken in London.
A late-Asia sweep of Friday's 4125 low printed the 4124.64 Asian low and reversed; London open carried price through the 4163.16 Asian high to a 4170.34 session high, with a rising-lows trendline intact and RSI(14) near 67. A second push at 4169.80 stalled just under the high, consistent with a firm USD and elevated long-end yields keeping gold below its 4,200 range top.
Support: 4,163.16, 4,159.88, 4,124.64
Resistance: 4,170.34, 4,188.31
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4163 Asian high and the 4159.88 swing low breaks the rising-lows trendline
Close above the 4170.34 session high opens the path to the 4188 pre-NFP top, then the 4,200 range top
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (S&P PMI 13:45) could materially shift this read; a hot print revives the 4124.64 Asian low as a reference
Fib 50% near 4147.5 marks where the London advance would be half retraced
08:48 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling at the asian high · RSI 55 · price 4,160.79
Higher low at 4130.36, higher high at 4170.34; price pulling back inside the Asian range.
Asia briefly undercut Friday's post-NFP low of 4125.22, reaching 4124.64, then reversed higher. London open carried gold through the asian high at 4163.16 to a 4170.34 session high on softer yields. Supply capped that move with the USD at YTD highs, and price has slipped back below the asian high with RSI(14) cooling to ~55; the swing low at 4147.82 sits on the 50% fib of the 4124–4170 leg.
Support: 4,147.82, 4,130.36, 4,124.64
Resistance: 4,163.16, 4,170.34, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian high at 4163.16 restores the London breakout; sustained trade below it marks a false break
Failure to hold the swing low at 4147.82 (50% fib) exposes the higher low at 4130.36 and the asian low at 4124.64
Clearance of the 4170.34 session high puts the 4200 round number in view
S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7, plus Prices Paid) could materially shift this read
08:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extended into London · RSI 68 · price 4,165.84
Higher lows from 4124.64; Asian range high broken at London open.
Asia dipped to an Asian low at 4124.64, matching Friday's post-NFP low, then reversed higher as yields eased after the payrolls miss. Early London pushed through the Asian high at 4163, setting a session high at 4170.34 with RSI(14) near 68. Higher lows hold above a rising trendline.
Support: 4,163.16, 4,147.00, 4,124.64
Resistance: 4,170.34, 4,196.19
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4163 asian high turns the break into a false break
Loss of the 50% fib at ~4147 (breakout base) breaks the higher-low chain toward the 4124.64 asian low
Acceptance above the 4170 session high opens the 4196 pre-nfp high
S&P PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
08:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, RSI hot · RSI 74 · price 4,169.16
Higher lows off 4125 double bottom, Asian high broken.
Asia session dipped to 4124.64, matching the friday low at 4125 from the post-NFP selloff, before a rally from 06:00 UTC lifted price through the 4163 asian high into early London, with RSI(14) near 74. The move trades in the gap between the double bottom and Friday's 4196 pre-nfp high, with the 4200 psych level and 4227 nfp high above.
Support: 4,163.16, 4,124.64
Resistance: 4,196.19, 4,200.00, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4163 asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 4147 swing low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain
Supply near the 4196 pre-nfp high and 4200 psych level, with the 4227 nfp high above. Area to watch for rejection or break
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (S&P PMI 13:45) could materially shift this read
Higher low at 4130 after double-bottom sweep of Friday low; testing Asian high.
Asia faded from the 4163 Asian high to 4124.64, a sweep of Friday's post-NFP low at 4125 that leaves a double bottom. The rebound printed a higher low at 4130 and a 4166.29 session high at London open, marginally through the Asian high, with the bar closing back near 4160. RSI(14) is around 66 and ATR(14) is about $8, so this is a test of the range top rather than an extended move.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,130.36, 4,124.64
Resistance: 4,163.16, 4,166.29, 4,176.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4166 session high and Asian high opens Friday's 4176 breakdown level
Loss of the 4150 psych handle puts the 4130 higher low back in play
Break below the 4124.6 double btm invalidates the recovery read
ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7, Prices Paid) and S&P PMI 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
07:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extending off the lows · RSI 71 · price 4,165.33
Higher lows from 4124.64; London pushing through the Asian range high.
London opened with a push through the Asian high at 4163.16, extending the rebound from a double bottom at 4125 that matches Friday's post-NFP low. Monday's slide in US yields is cushioning bullion. RSI(14) is near 71, and the 4147.82 pullback low anchors the rising support.
Support: 4,163.16, 4,147.82, 4,124.64
Resistance: 4,166.29, 4,176.00, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4163.16 asian high marks a false break of the Asian range
Acceptance above the 4166.29 session high opens the 4176 fri pivot, then the 4200 round number
Break of the 4147.82 pullback low and rising support exposes the 4125 double bottom
S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
07:32 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling below the Asian high · RSI 61 · price 4,152.51
Higher low at 4130, consolidating 4147–4158 inside the Asian range.
The Asia session dipped to the 4124.64 Asian low, a sweep just under Friday's post-NFP low near 4125. Buyers stepped in at a 4130 higher low and lifted price into the London open, printing a 4158.58 London high. Price is now consolidating between the 4147 pullback low and that high, still inside the Asian range and capped by the 4163.16 Asian high, as the USD haven bid offsets softer yields.
Support: 4,147.00, 4,130.36, 4,124.64
Resistance: 4,158.58, 4,163.16
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4163.16 Asian high breaks the Asian range to the upside
Loss of the 4147 pullback low exposes the 4130 higher low and the higher-low trendline
Break below the 4124.64 Asian low negates the sweep-and-recover read
S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7, plus Prices Paid) could materially shift this read
07:18 UTC
Intraday recovery, pressing upper Asian range · RSI 59 · price 4,155.83
Double bottom near 4125, higher low at 4130, capped below 4163 Asian high.
Demand held the Asian low at 4124.64, matching Friday's post-NFP 4125 low for a double bottom. A higher low at 4130 followed, and a 06:00 UTC thrust carried gold back through the 4140.8 prior cap into the upper half of the Asian range. The first London session high at 4158.58 is capping for now, just under the 4163.16 Asian high, with softer US yields cushioning gold while the USD holds its haven bid.
Support: 4,146.96, 4,140.80, 4,124.64
Resistance: 4,158.58, 4,163.16
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4163.16 asian high breaks the Asian range to the upside
Loss of the 4146.96 pullback low and the 4140.8 prior cap puts the 4124.64 asian low back in focus
Break of the higher-low line from 4124.64 negates the double bottom read
S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7, plus Prices Paid) could materially shift this read
Higher low at 4130.36 off double bottom near 4125; capped below 4155.86.
London open finds gold at 4152, in the upper half of the 4124.64–4163.16 Asian range. The 06:00 UTC impulse launched from a higher low at 4130.36 after Asia's 4124.64 double bottom with Friday's post-NFP low, and price is holding above the 61.8% fib at 4148.45. Supply is capping at the 06:15 high of 4155.86, RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 4,148.45, 4,130.36, 4,124.64
Resistance: 4,155.86, 4,163.16
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4163.16 asian high breaks the Asian range to the upside
Loss of the 61.8% fib at 4148.45 returns price to the mid-range
Failure at the 4130.36 higher low puts the 4124.64 double btm back in play
Break of the 06:15 high at 4155.86 opens a test of the asian high
ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7, Prices Paid) and S&P PMI 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher low off swept Friday low, 4140.8 cap broken.
Asia session faded an early push to the 4163 asian high, then swept Friday's 4125 low to an asian low of 4124.64 before reversing, even with USD firm on safe-haven flows. The 06:00 UTC bar cleared the 4140.8 breakout lvl, and price holds near 4151 into the London open. RSI(14) sits near 56, mid-range, and the 4155.86 bounce high is the nearest cap.
Support: 4,140.80, 4,124.64
Resistance: 4,155.86, 4,163.16
What it said to watch
A return below the 4140.8 breakout lvl, near the 50% fib, puts price back inside the Asian range lows
A break of the higher low trendline and the 4124.64 asian low (Friday low already swept) confirms a lower-low
An M15 close above the 4155.86 bounce high and the 4163 asian high opens the path toward 4200
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7, plus Prices Paid) could materially shift this read
Sweep of Friday low, then higher low at 4130.36 and break of 4140.8 cap; inside Asian range.
Asia swept Friday's post-NFP low at 4125.22, printing an asian low at 4124.64. The 06:00 UTC impulse then cleared the 4140.8 range top, which capped four bars, and the 4150 psych level. Price sits at 61.8–78.6% of the 4163.16–4124.64 drop into London open, with the NFP-miss bid already faded from the 4227 spike and the USD firm on safe-haven demand.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,140.80, 4,124.64
Resistance: 4,155.86, 4,163.16
What it said to watch
A close back below the 4140.8 range top negates the breakout and reopens the asian low at 4124.64
A break of the higher-low trendline from 4124.64 weakens the double bottom read
Holding the 4150 psych level keeps the rebound high at 4155.86 and the asian high at 4163.16 in play; acceptance above 4163.16 breaks the Asian range
S&P Composite PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7, Prices Paid) could materially shift this read
06:17 UTC
Sharp rebound off the session low, inside the Asian range · RSI 57 · price 4,152.89
Sweep of Friday's 4125 low, then a higher low at 4130 and a reclaim of the 4140 range cap. Price sits below the 4163 Asian high..
Asia faded from the 4163.16 Asian high into a sweep of Friday's post-NFP low, printing the asian low at 4124.64. A single $19 bar at 06:00 UTC then reclaimed the 4140 range cap and pushed into the 0.618–0.786 retracement of the Asian decline ahead of London open. Monday's softer US yields are cushioning bullion against a safe-haven USD bid at fresh YTD highs.
Support: 4,140.80, 4,124.64
Resistance: 4,163.16, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4140.80 range cap reopens the asian low at 4124.64
M15 close above the 4163.16 asian high breaks Asia's lower-high sequence and exposes the 4200 psych handle
Break of the rising support line from 4124.64 through the 4130 higher low negates the rebound structure
ISM Services PMI 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7, Prices Paid) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4163 Asian high; higher low at 4130 after sweep of Friday low.
Gold faded from the 4163 Asian high as the USD printed a fresh YTD high on Middle East haven demand. The drop swept Friday's post-NFP low near 4125 to a 4124.64 Asian low, then rebounded. Price is now coiling between the 4130 swing low and a 4141 lower high, capped at the 38.2% of the Asia drop fib and the lower-highs line ahead of London open. RSI(14) is neutral near 43, with EMA20/50 overhead.
Support: 4,130.36, 4,124.64
Resistance: 4,140.80, 4,146.70, 4,163.16
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4141 lower high and the lower-highs line opens the 4146.7 swing high and the 61.8% fib near 4148
Failure to hold the 4130 swing low exposes the 4124.64 Asian low again
Acceptance below the Asian low turns the Friday-low sweep into a lower-low
ISM Services PMI 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7, Prices Paid) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 4163 Asian high; session low swept Friday's low and rebounded.
Late Asia session: gold has faded from the 4163.2 Asian high in a lower-high chain, and the 4124.6 session low briefly swept Friday's post-NFP low before a bounce back to the 38.2% fib near 4139, just under ema20. A haven-driven USD bid is keeping price below the 4150 round number.
Support: 4,130.10, 4,124.60
Resistance: 4,146.70, 4,150.00, 4,163.20
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4146.7 lower high breaks the Asian downtrend line and brings the 4150 round number into view
Failure to hold the 4130.1 higher low exposes the 4124.6 session low again
London open in ~75 min: a break of either Asian range edge (4124.6 / 4163.2 asian high) resets the structure
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) during NY hours could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 4163 Asian high; bounce off 4124.6 capped near the 38.2% retracement.
Monday's Asia session faded from the 4163.2 Asian high to 4124.6. That briefly undercut Friday's post-NFP low at 4125.2 before a bounce that stalled at 4140.2, the latest lower high, near the 38.2% fib of the Asia drop. The Yemen-driven USD bid is capping gold into the London open, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) neutral at 44.
Support: 4,130.10, 4,124.60
Resistance: 4,140.20, 4,150.00, 4,163.20
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4124.6 asian low confirms a lower-low through Friday's low
Loss of the 4130.1 higher low puts the asian low back in play
Close above the 4140.2 lower high and the 4150 psych level breaks the Asia lower-high sequence, with the 4163.2 asian high above
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
05:18 UTC
Intraday downtrend, bouncing off a sweep low · RSI 46 · price 4,137.20
Asia lower highs from 4163.16, higher low 4130.09 after a sweep of Friday's low.
Asia faded from the 4163.16 asian high into a sweep of Friday's post-NFP 4125.22 low, tagging 4124.64 as the Yemen-driven USD bid lifted the dollar to a fresh YTD high. Price has since set a higher low at 4130.09 and is testing the 38.2% retrace near 4139, with RSI(14) at 46. It remains below the 4146.68 swing high and both EMAs.
Support: 4,130.09, 4,124.64
Resistance: 4,146.68, 4,163.16
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4146.68 swing high breaks the Asia lower-high sequence and puts the 4150 handle back in play
Loss of the 4130.09 higher low exposes the 4124.64 asian low; acceptance below extends Friday's post-NFP decline
London open in ~2h tends to test the Asian range edges at 4124.64 and 4163.16
ISM Services PMI 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7, Prices Paid) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows off the Asian high; price testing Friday's post-NFP low.
Gold was rejected at the 4163.16 Asian high and faded as the USD hit a fresh YTD high on Yemen headlines. The drop carved a lower high at 4146.68 and a 4124.64 session low, just under Friday's 4125.22 post-NFP low. Late Asia, with London open still ahead; price sits below both EMAs and RSI(14) is near 35.
Support: 4,124.64
Resistance: 4,146.68, 4,163.16
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4146.7 lower high breaks the downtrend line read
Failure to hold the 4124.6 session low extends the lower-low sequence below Friday's low
Bounce capped below the 50% fib of the Asian drop (~4143.9) keeps the downtrend structure intact
Reclaim of the 4163.2 Asian high would undo today's Asia session structure
ISM Services PMI 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7, plus Prices Paid) could materially shift this read
04:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the Asia high · RSI 35 · price 4,133.02
Lower highs below 4163, Asian range low broken, Friday low swept.
Late in the Asia session, gold has reversed the early climb to the 4163.16 asian high and broken below the Asian range floor near the 4138.58 asian low, with a lower high at 4146.68, as USD firmed on safe-haven demand. Price swept Friday's 4125 post-NFP low to a 4124.64 session low before a modest bounce. RSI(14) is near 35, soft but not oversold, and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 4,124.64, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,138.58, 4,146.68, 4,163.16
What it said to watch
A close back above the 4138.58 asian low, the 38.2% level of the Asia sell-off fib, would turn the range break into a false break.
A push through the 4146.68 lower high would break the lower-high trendline from the asian high.
A failure to hold the 4124.64 session low would confirm a lower low and expose the 4110–4113 8-week low.
London open in about 2h could set a new session range. ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7, Prices Paid in focus) could materially shift this read.
Lower highs from 4163 session high; marginal break under Friday low.
The early Asia session push to the 4163.16 session high reversed as USD firmed on safe-haven demand, giving back the post-NFP bounce. Price broke through the Monday opening range and printed 4124.64, a marginal break of the 4125.22 Friday low, with RSI(14) near 27. That leaves a chain of lower highs, the latest at 4146.68, heading into the late Asia session.
Support: 4,124.64, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,136.33, 4,146.68, 4,163.16
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4136.33 prior low would mark the break of the Friday low as false
Failure to hold the 4124.64–4125.22 Friday low area keeps the 4110–4113 8-week low in view
A close above the 4146.68 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7, Prices Paid) could materially shift this read
04:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs from Asia peak · RSI 33 · price 4,135.82
Asian range broken to the downside, testing Friday's post-NFP base.
The Asia session rally to the 4163.16 asian high faded as USD firmed on safe-haven demand. It unwound the post-NFP bounce and slipped below the 4138.58 asian low, with lower highs capping at the 4146.68 bounce high. Price is now pressing the friday pivot near 4130, with RSI(14) near 33. Not yet oversold.
Support: 4,130.08, 4,125.22
Resistance: 4,138.58, 4,146.68, 4,163.16
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4138.58 asian low would mark the range break as a false break
Failure to hold the 4130 friday pivot exposes the 4125.22 friday low, with the 4110–4113 eight-week low beyond
A move through the 4146.68 bounce high breaks the lower highs sequence
London open in ~3h may extend or reverse the Asian-range break
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) and the Prices Paid component could materially shift this read
04:04 UTC
Intraday down after Asia rejection, now flat · RSI 41 · price 4,143.06
Asia high rejected, tight base above the session low.
Asia pushed through Friday's late 4149.81 high to an Asian high at 4163.16. The 02:45 UTC flush through the 4152.50 breakdown level unwound the move to a 4136.33 session low, fading the post-NFP bid the digest flagged near 4160. Price is coiling around 4143 below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 41 into London open, and the rising lows line from Friday low 4125.22 sits underneath.
Support: 4,136.33, 4,125.22
Resistance: 4,152.50, 4,163.16
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4136.33 session low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 4125.22 friday low
Reclaim of the 4152.50 breakdown level reopens the 4163.16 asian high and negates the false break read
ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7, Prices Paid) could materially reset this range
Halfway retrace of the asian high drop sits near 4149.75, the first area to watch for supply on any bounce
Asian range 4136–4163; rising lows broken, lower high in place.
The Asia session recovery after Friday's soft NFP stalled at the 4163 asian high. That level sits at the 38.2% retracement of the post-NFP drop from 4227 to 4125. The asia trendline gave way at 02:45 UTC, and price is now holding just above the 4136 asian low, below the ema20 near 4150.
Support: 4,136.33, 4,125.22
Resistance: 4,150.00, 4,163.16
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4136 asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4125 nfp low
Recovery above the ema20 near 4150 and the broken asia trendline neutralises the breakdown
Failure to clear the 4163 asian high / 38.2% nfp drop fib keeps the bounce contained
London open in ~3h may set the session range; ISM Services at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:32 UTC
Intraday down after failed Asia rally · RSI 46 · price 4,143.24
Asia high 4163.16 rejected; full retrace to 4136 low, basing near 4143.
The Asia session rally to the 4163.16 session high stalled and reversed sharply from 02:45 UTC, erasing Monday's gain as haven USD demand returned. Price at 4143 sits just above the 4136.33 session low and below the 4148.5 ema cluster, which lines up with the 50% level of the Asia drop fib near 4150. RSI(14) is neutral at 46.
Support: 4,136.33, 4,125.22
Resistance: 4,148.50, 4,163.16
What it said to watch
A break of the 4136.33 session low opens Friday's 4125.22 nfp low
A reclaim of the 4148.5 ema cluster and the 50% level of the Asia drop fib (4150) would neutralise the reversal, with the 4163.16 session high above
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7, watch Prices Paid) in the NY session could materially shift this read
03:17 UTC
Intraday down leg, Asia bounce fully unwound · RSI 39 · price 4,137.68
Asian range low broken, lower high at 4163 then sharp sell-off.
Late in the Asia session, gold has unwound its Monday bounce. It was rejected at the 4163 asian high, then slid about 2,500 pips through the rising trendline, the 4152 range base and the 4138.6 asian low as haven USD demand returned. Price is sitting on the 4136 session low near Friday's post-NFP close area, and RSI(14) has eased to about 39 without reaching an extreme.
Support: 4,136.33, 4,130.08, 4,125.22
Resistance: 4,138.58, 4,152.19, 4,163.16
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4138.6 asian low would turn the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 4136 session low exposes the 4130 swing low, then the 4125 friday low from the post-NFP sell-off
Recovery above the 4152 range base would neutralise the breakdown and put the 4163 asian high back in play
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) and its Prices Paid component could materially shift this read
03:04 UTC
Asian rally reversed, testing the lows · RSI 44 · price 4,143.31
Sharp sell-off from the Asian high back to the Asian low.
A single $15 bar at 02:45 UTC reversed the Monday Asia session climb from the Asian high at 4163.2, wiping out most of the post-NFP extension as haven USD demand returned. Price now holds the 61.8% fib of the 4125–4163 rebound, just above the Asian low at 4138.6, and sits below both EMAs.
Support: 4,138.60, 4,125.20
Resistance: 4,152.20, 4,163.20
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4138.6 Asian low opens the Friday low at 4125.2
A reclaim of the 4152.2 prior base would turn the drop into a range inside the Asian high
London open from 07:00 UTC is the first test of the Asian range
ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7, Prices Paid in focus) could materially shift this read
02:47 UTC
Asian recovery, stalling at 38.2% fib · RSI 57 · price 4,154.44
Asian HH/HL chain from 4138.6, now testing the 4152 higher low.
Mid-Asia, gold has lifted from the 4138.6 Asian low to a 4163.16 Asian high. That high sits on the 38.2% fib of Friday's NFP spike-and-reversal (4227–4125), which reversed despite the 29K miss as yields held near highs. Price has rejected there and is back on the 4152 higher low, with RSI(14) near 57 and ATR around 610 pips.
Support: 4,152.20, 4,138.60, 4,125.20
Resistance: 4,163.16, 4,176.80
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4152 higher low breaks the Asian HH/HL chain and exposes the 4138.6 Asian low, then the 4125.2 Friday low
M15 close above the 4163.16 Asian high and 38.2% fib opens the 4176.8 breakdown pivot from Friday's selloff
S&P PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
A US 10y move through ~5.30% could materially shift this read
02:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend in Asia, stalling under session high · RSI 62 · price 4,158.60
Higher lows off 4140 Asian low, capped at 4160–4163.
Gold has climbed off the 4140 Asian low in a higher-low chain during the Asia session, retracing part of Friday's NFP spike to 4227 and reversal to 4125. Price is stalling under the 4163 session high, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of that reversal. RSI(14) is near 62 and ATR(14) is about 600 pips.
Support: 4,152.20, 4,140.30
Resistance: 4,163.20, 4,176.30, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4152 swing low breaks the Asia trendline and higher-low chain, exposing the 4140 Asian low
M15 close above the 4163 session high / 38.2% fib opens the path to the 50% fib at 4176, with 4200 psych beyond
Rejection at 4160–4163 into London open would turn the Asia advance into a range
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) and the US 10y yield near 5.29% could materially shift this read
02:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, Asia recovery off Friday lows · RSI 64 · price 4,160.12
Higher-low chain from the 4140 asian low into a 4163 session high.
Gold opened flat near Friday's 4139 close. The Asia session then built a higher-low chain off the 4140 asian low to a 4163 session high, which sits at the 38.2% fib of Friday's post-NFP drop from 4227 to 4125. RSI(14) is near 64 and the 4152 swing low is holding the micro-structure, while the USD haven bid caps follow-through.
Support: 4,152.20, 4,140.30, 4,125.20
Resistance: 4,163.20, 4,176.20, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4163 session high and the 38.2% fib opens the 4176 fib 50% area, where Friday's breakdown accelerated.
Failure to hold the 4152 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 4140 asian low, then the 4125 friday low.
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7), with S&P Global PMI at 13:45 UTC, could materially shift this read. 4200 psych remains the rejection zone from last week.
HH/HL chain off 4140; Friday's late 4130–4150 base broken to the upside.
Mid-Asia session, gold has lifted out of Friday's post-NFP 4130–4150 base. It climbed from the 4140 asian low area to a 4161.64 asian high, putting a higher low at 4152 and clearing the 4149.81 fri late top. Price is pressing just under the fib 38.2 retracement of the NFP spike-and-reversal (4227–4125) at 4164, with RSI(14) near 66 and ATR(14) ~6.1 USD; weekend news flow was thin, so the move is technical.
Support: 4,152.19, 4,149.81, 4,138.58
Resistance: 4,161.64, 4,164.21, 4,176.25
What it said to watch
Close above 4164 (fib 38.2) opens the 4174–4176 breakdown shelf and fib 50
Failure at the 4161.64 asian high with a break of the 4152 higher low and the rising trendline breaks the HH/HL chain
Loss of the 4149.81 fri late top puts price back inside Friday's base toward the 4138.58 asian low
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7, with Prices Paid) could materially shift this read; a hot print has been hitting gold via yields
01:47 UTC
Short-term recovery off Friday's low, Asia drift higher · RSI 62 · price 4,154.22
Higher lows inside Asian range 4138.6–4161.4.
Friday's NFP spike to 4227 met rejection and unwound to a 4125.22 friday low as yields held firm. Mid-Asia session, price has climbed off the 4138.58 asia low to a 4161.35 asia high and is holding above Friday's late prior high at 4149.8, still shallow on the fib of that bounce. RSI(14) is near 62 and ATR(14) is roughly $5.60.
Support: 4,149.80, 4,138.58, 4,125.22
Resistance: 4,161.35, 4,176.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4161.35 asia high opens the 4176.77 breakdown point from Friday's sell-off
Loss of the 4149.8 prior high puts the 4138.58 asia low and the bounce fib 50% near 4143 back in play
Break of the 4125.22 friday low resumes the post-NFP downleg
London open may extend or reject the Asian range
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) and Prices Paid could materially shift this read
Asia opening-range break, higher highs and higher lows since 4140.
Monday's Asia session broke above its 4138.6–4148.2 opening range (the range top) and Friday's late high near 4149.8. That opened a higher-high chain to the 4161.35 session high, with USD still soft after the 29K NFP miss. Price has retraced roughly 30% of Friday's post-NFP drop from 4227 to the 4125 friday low, and the 38.2% fib near 4164 sits just above the session high.
Support: 4,148.50, 4,138.60, 4,125.22
Resistance: 4,161.35, 4,164.20, 4,176.25
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the range top at 4148.5 reverses the Asia breakout and exposes the asia low at 4138.6
A close above the 4161.35 session high brings the 38.2% fib at 4164 and the 50% fib at 4176 into play
A break of the rising asia hl line from 4140 to 4152.8 ends the higher-low sequence
Loss of 4138.6 reopens the 4125.22 friday low
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7, plus Prices Paid) could materially shift this read
01:17 UTC
Early-week bounce, higher highs off Asia low · RSI 66 · price 4,156.62
HH/HL chain in Asia, back above Friday's late high.
Monday's Asia session lifted off the 4138.58 Asia low and cleared Friday's late-session prior high at 4149.81. It printed higher lows along a rising line up to the 4161.35 Asia high, with RSI(14) near 66 and not stretched. The bounce sits just past the 23.6% retracement of Friday's NFP spike-and-reversal from 4227 to the 4125.22 NFP low, with the 38.2% fib at 4164.21 and the 4170 breakdown zone above. Weekend news was thin.
Support: 4,149.81, 4,138.58, 4,125.22
Resistance: 4,161.35, 4,164.21, 4,170.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4161.35 Asia high exposes the 38.2% fib at 4164.21 and the 4170 breakdown zone
Break of the Asia rising line near 4151 and a close back below the 4149.81 prior high returns price to Friday's late range
Loss of the 4138.58 Asia low exposes the 4125.22 NFP low
US ISM Services PMI (14:00 UTC) and S&P Global PMI (13:45 UTC) later Monday could materially shift this read, with US yields near highs
Rising lows off 4125, pressing early-Asia session high.
Monday's Asia session opened near Friday's 4139 close. Price has since lifted to a 4158.15 session high, retracing part of the NFP spike-and-rejection from 4227 to 4125. Gold is now holding just above the EMA50 at 4153.6 on a chain of rising lows, below the 38.2% fib at 4164, with RSI(14) near 66.
Support: 4,153.60, 4,138.58, 4,125.22
Resistance: 4,158.15, 4,164.20, 4,176.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4158.15 session high and the 38.2% fib at 4164 opens Friday's 4176.8 breakdown level from the NY sell-off
Loss of the EMA50 and the 4138.58 Asian low breaks the rising lows and returns focus to the 4125.22 Friday low
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) is the next catalyst; a hot print with firmer yields could materially shift this read
Asia session pushed above Friday's late range; holding below the 38.2% fib.
Early in the Asia session, gold opened flat near Friday's 4139 close. It then pushed through the 4148 range top from Friday's late trade, printed a 4158 session high and eased back. Price is holding above the 23.6% retrace of the NFP spike-and-reversal (4227 to 4125), with RSI(14) near 60 and the 50 EMA overhead around 4153. Weekend flow is thin, and the digest notes yields near highs keeping the post-NFP bounce contained.
Support: 4,148.20, 4,138.60, 4,125.20
Resistance: 4,158.20, 4,164.20
What it said to watch
Holding above the 4148 range top keeps the Asian range break intact; a slip back below reopens the 4138.6 Asian low
M15 close above the 4158 session high brings the 38.2% fib at 4164 into play, with Friday's 4176 breakdown level above
Failure at 4125, the nfp low, would extend Friday's reversal into a fresh lower low
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) and S&P Composite at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
00:32 UTC
Bouncing after the NFP reversal, short-term higher lows · RSI 64 · price 4,154.54
Broke out of Friday's 4125–4150 range; Asian range 4138.6–4158.2 still forming.
The Asia session open lifted gold out of Friday's post-NFP 4125–4150 consolidation. Price cleared the 4149.8 prior high and printed a 4158.15 session high. It now sits barely above EMA50 (~4153) and below the 38.2% fib of the NFP reversal at 4164.2, with RSI(14) near 64 and weekend news thin.
Support: 4,149.80, 4,138.60, 4,125.20
Resistance: 4,158.15, 4,164.20, 4,174.65
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4149.8 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 4138.6 asian low reopens the 4125.2 nfp low
Acceptance above the 4158.15 session high and the 38.2% fib at 4164.2 exposes the 4174.65 pre-nfp low
ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) and US yields could reset this read later in the day
Higher lows from 4125.2; Monday Asian range broken higher.
Early Asia has pushed out of the 4138–4148 opening range to a 4153.1 session high. That puts price on EMA50 and just above the 23.6% fib of Friday's NFP spike-and-reversal (4227→4125), clearing Friday's 4149.8 prior high. The 4160 breakdown pivot and the 38.2% fib at 4164 sit overhead, with the session low and the post-NFP low marking the floor of Friday's consolidation.
Support: 4,149.80, 4,138.60, 4,125.20
Resistance: 4,153.10, 4,160.10
What it said to watch
A slip back below the 4149.8 prior high returns price to the Asian range, with the 4138.6 session low next
An M15 close above the 4153.1 session high and EMA50 opens the 4160 breakdown pivot and the 38.2% fib at 4164
Loss of the 4125.2 post-NFP low reopens the 4110–4113 eight-week low
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7), with Prices Paid, could materially shift this read; thin Asia liquidity until then
00:04 UTC
Post-NFP downleg, stabilising in Asia · RSI 53 · price 4,145.34
Tight Asian range capped below Friday's prior high.
Gold opened the Asia session flat to Friday's close and is holding a 4138.6–4148.2 Asian range, after Friday's NFP spike to 4227 was rejected and the drop ran to the 4125.2 nfp low as long-end yields rose. Friday's late prior high at 4149.8 sits on the 23.6% fib of that move and is capping the bounce. RSI(14) is neutral near 53.
Support: 4,138.60, 4,125.20
Resistance: 4,149.80, 4,164.20
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4149.8 prior high opens the 38.2% fib at 4164.2
Break of the 4138.6 asian low exposes the 4125.2 nfp low
S&P Global PMI 13:45 UTC and ISM Services 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read in NY hours