21:09 UTC
Downtrend, below falling EMA50 · RSI 40 · price 4,145.64
Lower highs and lower lows since the 25 Aug peak.
Gold has been in a downtrend since the 25 Aug peak at 4696.74. A falling trendline has capped each weekly rally, and the 28 Sep break printed a lower low at the 4110.84 two-month low. EMA20 has crossed below a now-declining EMA50 near 4288. Last week's rebound met rejection at the 4227.28 lower high, right on the trendline, even after the 29K NFP miss, as ~5.34% US 10y yields and a YTD-high dollar capped bullion. Price holds below the 23.6% fib of the 4697–4111 swing with RSI near 40.
Support: 4,110.84, 4,000.00, 3,942.64
Resistance: 4,227.28, 4,288.00, 4,399.53
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 4110.84 two-month low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4000 psych handle and the 3942.64 june low
- Close above the 4227.28 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence, with ema50 near 4288 next
- Recovery through the sep 18 high at 4399.53, near the 50% fib of the 4697–4111 swing, would neutralise the downtrend read
- Fed's Williams/Bowman Tue and FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields