Lower highs from 4155; range floor broken, bounce capped under EMA20.
Gold has printed lower highs from 4155 to the 4082 range high, and Friday's break below the week-long 3975-4000 range floor set the 3870 yearly low. Monday's rebound, driven by oil and yields sliding on US-Iran peace hopes, stalled at a 3970 bounce high, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the 4082-3870 leg and just above EMA20 (~3962). EMA20 is still below EMA50 (~4005), and ATR(14) near $31.6 shows the range remains expanded after the break rather than compressing.
Support: 3,891.20, 3,870.26
Resistance: 3,970.36, 4,000.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 3970 bounce high, then the 4000 round number (old range floor and 61.8% fib), would challenge the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 3891 Monday base reopens the 3870 yearly low
Only a break of the 4082 range high and the lower-highs trendline would undo the downtrend read
US midterm results (Tue) and JOLTS at 15:00 UTC Tue vs 7.13M f/c could materially shift this read via yields and Dec hike odds
Lower highs from 4190; range break below 3990, now retesting it.
Lower highs from 4190 to the 4082 swing high define the multi-week downtrend. Friday's liquidation-driven range break through 3990 ran to a 3870 yearly low before a Monday base near 3891 held. Today's $66 bar, helped by easing oil and a softer USD, lifted price to a 3966 rally high at the 38.2% fib, where it is retesting the underside of the broken range with EMA20 overhead near 3964 and EMA50 still falling near 4000; ATR(14) has expanded to about $34.
Support: 3,891.00, 3,870.26
Resistance: 3,966.38, 4,000.00
What it said to watch
A close above the 3966 rally high and the 50% fib near 3977 opens the 4000 round number and the falling trendline near 4027
A drop back below the 3891 Monday base re-exposes the 3870 yearly low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
ADP (Wed 13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (Wed 15:00 UTC) could reprice December hike odds and shift this read
Midterm results overnight Tue into Wed and US-Iran oil headlines are the main event risk for the rebound
Gold has printed lower highs since the 4155 peak. The 4082.67 lower high capped the late-month rebound before price lost the 3975-3990 range floor and the 3965.25 broken low. That flush ran to a 3870.26 yearly low, with forced deleveraging following the GDP beat and hot headline PCE that kept December hike odds near 70-75%. The bounce has stalled at 3919.35, just under the 23.6% fib of the 4082-3870 leg, with price below both EMAs, which are bearishly aligned. ATR(14) stays expanded after the breakdown bar.
Support: 3,891.23, 3,870.26
Resistance: 3,919.35, 3,965.25, 4,082.67
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read.
An H4 close above the 3919.35 bounce high and the 23.6% fib opens the path toward the 3965.25 broken low and the 38.2% near 3951.
Failure to hold the 3891.23 bounce low, tested twice, puts the 3870.26 yearly low back in play. A close below it extends the lower-low sequence.
The lower highs trendline from 4155 remains intact unless price reclaims 4082.67.
US midterms on Tuesday add event risk to the multi-day structure.
Lower highs and lower lows; shallow bounce off YTD low.
Gold has printed lower highs from 4190 through the 4082.67 lower high. Last week it broke the 3975–4035 range, sliced through the 3965 july low and reached a 3870.26 ytd low as hot US data held December hike pricing near 70%. Both EMAs sit above price with EMA20 below EMA50, and ATR(14) expanded on the breakdown. The bounce so far is a tight 3891–3919 consolidation, holding under the 38.2% retracement of the drop near 3951.
Support: 3,891.30, 3,870.26
Resistance: 3,919.35, 3,965.25, 4,082.67
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 3891 bounce low puts the 3870 ytd low back in play; an H4 close below it extends the lower-low sequence
H4 close above the 3919 bounce high opens a retracement toward 3951 (38.2%) and the 3965 july low
Recovery above the 4082.67 lower high and the descending trendline invalidates the downtrend read
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC today, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Tuesday's midterms and JOLTS, then Wednesday's ADP, add event risk across the week
Lower highs from 4190, range floor broken, lower low at 3870.
Gold has printed lower highs since the 4190 peak, with the late-October rally stalling at 4083. Friday's slide broke the 3976 range floor and the 3965 swing low and made a 3870 YTD low, after the hawkish Fed, the 3.4% GDP beat and cross-asset liquidation. ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 3270 pips, and the Monday gap up has lifted price to 3904, still below both EMAs and under the 3915 breakdown bar.
Support: 3,891.30, 3,870.26
Resistance: 3,965.25, 3,975.70
What it said to watch
An H4 close back below the 3891 gap opens a retest of the 3870 ytd low; a close below 3870 extends the lower-low sequence
A reclaim of the 3915 breakdown level puts the 3965 swing low and 3976 range floor in play, which sit near the 38.2–50% fib
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC today (f/c 54.6, Prices Paid 77) and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
A lower-high trendline near 4050 caps the broader decline; a close above it invalidates the downtrend read
02:06 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after range break · RSI 27 · price 3,901.24
Lower highs from 4190, 3975-4082 range broken lower.
Lower highs since the 4190 peak, with the week-long 3975-4082 range resolving lower on Friday as the GDP beat and hawkish Fed hold fed broad liquidation, driving gold to a 1-year low at 3870.26. The open gapped up from 3875.80 and has not yet filled, but price sits well below both EMA20 and EMA50, which remain bearishly stacked. ATR(14) is near 35 dollars and expanding, and RSI near 27 sits in oversold territory, which fits an extended leg rather than compression; the 3965 prior low and the 4000 psych mark align with the 38.2-61.8% band of the breakdown fib.
Support: 3,875.80, 3,870.26
Resistance: 3,965.25, 4,000.00, 4,082.67
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC: a hot print that rebuilds hike odds could materially shift this read
A gap fill toward 3875.80 followed by a break of the 1-year low at 3870.26 extends the lower-low sequence
H4 close back above the 3965 prior low puts the breakdown fib 50% and the 4000 psych mark in play
Lower highs trendline from 4190 stays intact unless price reclaims the 4082.67 range top