Range breakout Wednesday, higher lows, tight band under week high.
Gold spent Monday and Tuesday inside a 3891–3971 range, with two NY-hours spikes rejected at the 3971 prior high. It broke out during Wednesday's Asian session as the Democratic midterm sweep hit USD and yields, cleared 4000 psych into London open, and pushed to a 4070 week high in NY hours. Price holds above EMA(20) near 4030, and NY pullbacks found the 4029–4033 swing low along the rally trendline; RSI(14) near 71 is overbought while late-session bars have narrowed into a 4055–4070 band.
Support: 4,030.00, 4,000.00, 3,971.00
Resistance: 4,070.46, 4,100.00
What it said to watch
Close below the rally trendline near 4040 and the 4030 swing low/EMA(20) would shift the read to a deeper retracement toward 4000 psych
Clearance of the 4070 week high opens the 4100 round number; repeated rejection there marks a stall under the high
Loss of 4000 psych puts the 61.8% fib near 3976 and the 3971 prior high back in play
Thu 13:30 UTC Jobless Claims and Fri 13:30 UTC NFP (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Impulsive breakout above the 3970 prior cap, now pausing in a tight range under 4070.
NY-session spikes on Monday and Tuesday both faded from the 3970 area. That prior cap gave way in late Asia today as the Democratic midterm sweep hit USD and yields, driving a ~$150 leg from Wednesday's 3920 low through London. A NY push printed a week high at 4070, and price has since moved sideways near 4060. It holds above EMA(20) near 4031, with RSI(14) around 69 and still elevated as momentum flattens.
Support: 4,031.00, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,070.46, 4,100.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 4030 (ema20 and the London/NY base) would shift the read toward a deeper retracement of the election leg
Failure to hold the 4000 round number, inside the 38.2–50% fib zone of 4013–3995, puts the 3970 prior cap back in focus
An H1 close above the 4070 week high opens the path to the 4100 round number
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and unit labor costs, then Fri 13:30 UTC NFP, could materially shift this read
Range breakout Wednesday; higher lows since Tuesday, consolidating 4055–4070.
Gold broke out of the Monday–Tuesday 3896–3971 range during Wednesday's Asia session as the Democratic midterm sweep hit USD and yields. Price then extended through 4000 to a 4070.46 week high in NY hours, after Monday's and Tuesday's NY-session rallies had both faded below the 3971 prior highs. It has since stalled in a 4055–4070 consolidation above EMA(20). RSI(14) is easing from the mid-70s, and the 4029 pullback low is holding underneath.
Support: 4,029.28, 4,000.00, 3,971.01
Resistance: 4,070.46, 4,100.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4070.46 week high opens the path toward the 4100 round number
Failure to hold the 4029 pullback low exposes 4000 psych, near the 38.2% retracement of the Wednesday rally fib
A return below the 3971 prior highs would mark the breakout as a false break
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and unit labor costs, plus Fed's Hammack, could shift this read ahead of Friday's NFP
Mon–Tue range broken higher Wednesday; higher highs above 4030 base.
The week opened at 3892.71 and ranged 3891–3971 through Monday and Tuesday. NY-session spikes stalled twice at the range top. The Democratic midterm sweep hit USD and yields and drove a range break from Wednesday's Asia session into London open. Price then built a london base near 4030 before NY hours carried it to a 4070.46 week high. Price holds above EMA(20) near 4027, with RSI(14) at 68 and no divergence against the new high yet.
Support: 4,030.00, 4,000.00, 3,971.00
Resistance: 4,070.46, 4,100.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4070.46 week high extends the breakout leg; the 4100 round number is the next marker
Failure to hold the 4030 london base and the fib 38.2% near 4012 brings the 4000 psych level back into play
A return below the 3971 range top would turn Wednesday's breakout into a false break
Thu 13:30 UTC Jobless Claims and Fri 13:30 UTC NFP (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
19:03 UTC
Uptrend, extended after breakout · RSI 71 · price 4,061.44
Double-bottom range break above 3971; higher lows since Wednesday.
Gold broke out of the Monday–Tuesday 3891–3971 double-bottom range during Wednesday's Asia session as the Democratic midterm sweep weighed on USD and yields. The break carried through the 4000 round number to a 4070 week high during NY hours. Price sits above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 71, the NY session low at 4029 marks the last higher low, and the rising trendline from Wednesday's 3927 low is being tested around 4062.
Support: 4,029.28, 4,000.00, 3,971.01
Resistance: 4,070.46, 4,100.00
What it said to watch
H1 close below the rising trendline and the 4029 session low would mark the first lower low since the breakout
Loss of the 4000 round number exposes the 3971 range top and the 61.8% level of the Wednesday impulse fib near 3976 as retest zones
A clear move through the 4070 week high opens the 4100 psych level, with RSI(14) above 70 leaving the move stretched
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and unit labor costs, then Fri 13:30 UTC NFP (f/c 65K), could materially shift this read
Mon–Tue 3,891–3,971 range broken Wednesday; higher lows, fresh week high.
Monday and Tuesday held a 3,891–3,971 range, with two spikes toward 3,970 fading back to the 3,900–3,920 area. The Democratic sweep and USD sell-off then drove a breakout from about 3,930 in the Asia session into London open on Wednesday, followed by a 4,029–4,052 consolidation. NY hours took out the range top to a 4,070.4 week high, leaving price about 46 above EMA(20) near 4,021 with RSI(14) at 72 in overbought territory, while higher lows track Wednesday's rising trendline.
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 4,052 range top would turn the breakout into a false break and reopen the 4,029 range low, with EMA(20) close beneath
A break of Wednesday's rising trendline, near 4,055 now, would mark the first pause in the impulse; the 38.2% retracement of Wednesday's impulse sits near 4,012, just above the 4,000 round number
Sustained trade through the 4,070.4 week high puts the 4,100 round number in view
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims plus Hammack, then Fri 13:30 UTC NFP (f/c 65K) after the ADP beat, could materially shift this read
17:04 UTC
Uptrend, extended after breakout · RSI 75 · price 4,066.62
Broke 3891–3971 weekly range; higher highs, higher lows since Wednesday.
Gold spent Monday and Tuesday in a 3891–3971 range, with two NY-session rallies capped at 3970–3971. Wednesday's Asia session broke out on the USD sell-off after the Democratic sweep of Congress, then London held a 4029–4051 band (range low to range top). During NY hours, after the soft ISM Services and PMI prints, price cleared the range top to a 4067.75 week high. Price sits about 50 above EMA(20) near 4015, and RSI(14) near 75 is overbought after the steepest leg of the week. The 4100 round number is the next marker above.
Support: 4,051.50, 4,029.30, 4,015.00
Resistance: 4,067.75, 4,100.00
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 4051.5 range top would mark the NY push as a false break
Loss of the 4029.3 range low and the Wednesday higher-lows trendline would break the higher-low sequence toward the ema20 near 4015 and 4000 psych
Acceptance above the 4067.75 week high leaves the 4100 round number as the next reference
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Hammack, then Fri 13:30 UTC NFP (f/c 65K), could materially shift this read
Breakout above 3970 prior high, now a tight NY consolidation 4029–4052.
Gold opened the week at 3892.71, above last week's 3875.80 close, and was capped twice at the 3970 prior high on Monday and Tuesday. Today the Democrats' midterm sweep hit the USD and yields, and gold broke through 3970 in late Asia and early London. The move ran to a 4051.71 week high, with EMA(20) now trailing near 4009. Since then the NY session has compressed into a 4029–4052 range despite the ISM and PMI misses, and RSI(14) has eased to ~70 from overbought while price printed only a marginal new high, a mild bearish divergence.
Support: 4,029.28, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,051.71, 4,100.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 4051.71 week high ends the NY consolidation and opens the path to the 4100 round number
Loss of the 4029 session low exposes the 4000 round number, near the 38.2% fib of today's impulse
Failure to hold 4000 brings the 3970 prior high, near the 61.8% fib, back into play as support
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and unit labor costs, then Fri NFP, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Monday; breakout above 3971 double ceiling, now compressing below week high.
Gold printed higher lows at 3891, 3895.5 and 3917.6 this week. Wednesday's impulse began late in the Asian session and carried through the 3970–3971 prior high that capped Monday and Tuesday, on the post-midterm USD and yield slide. Price has since compressed in a 4030.5–4051.7 band under the week high. RSI(14) is near 73 and easing from its peak, and EMA(20) is rising toward the 4000 psych level, which also sits on the 38.2% retracement of the move.
Support: 4,030.50, 4,000.00, 3,971.00
Resistance: 4,051.70, 4,074.00
What it said to watch
ISM Services PMI at 15:00 UTC falls in the current bar. A hot print versus the 54.8 forecast could break the range low at 4030.5.
An H1 close above the 4051.7 week high opens the path to the next pivot at 4074.
Failure to hold the 4000 ema20/psych confluence would expose the 3971 prior high as a retest of the breakout.
A break of the higher lows trendline would undo the week's sequence of rising swing lows.
Thursday's jobless claims and Fed's Hammack at 13:30–13:50 UTC are the next risk window.
14:04 UTC
Uptrend, stretched after impulse · RSI 79 · price 4,046.00
Breakout above Mon–Tue range, now consolidating below week high.
Gold broke out of the Monday–Tuesday 3891–3971 range late in Wednesday's Asia session as the Democratic sweep hit USD and yields. The Wednesday impulse ran from the 3917.56 swing low to a 4051.5 week high, clearing the prior-week highs near 4039. Since London open, price has compressed in a 4030–4051 band, and the dip on the ADP beat (86K vs 69K f/c) held at the post-ADP low of 4030.5, with RSI(14) near 79 overbought and EMA(20) near 4001 lining up with the 4000 round number and the 38.2% retracement.
Support: 4,030.50, 4,000.00, 3,970.00
Resistance: 4,051.50, 4,074.00
What it said to watch
ISM Services at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.8, with Prices Paid) could materially shift this read after the ADP beat
H1 close below the post-ADP low at 4030.5 breaks the consolidation and exposes the 4000 round number / EMA(20) / 38.2% confluence
H1 close above the 4051.5 week high extends the breakout toward the 4074 area
Failure to hold 4000 puts the old range top near 3970 back in play, close to the 61.8% retracement of the Wednesday impulse
13:03 UTC
Uptrend, stretched after breakout · RSI 75 · price 4,046.91
Gold broke the 3,970 prior highs that capped Monday and Tuesday during late Asia hours as the Democratic Congress sweep hit the USD and yields. The run from 3,927 to a 4,051.50 week high also cleared Thursday's 4,039 thu high. London has held a tight 4,031–4,051 band, with price well above EMA(20), RSI(14) near 75 and a clean higher-lows sequence off Tuesday's 3,895 low; the 38.2% of that impulse fib sits near 3,992, just under the 4,000 psych level.
What it said to watch
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read; soft prints open the path through the week high toward the 4,074 upside cap.
Firm ADP/ISM prints that fade the squeeze would put the 4,000 psych level under test.
An H1 close back below the 4,039 thu high puts the breakout into a retest phase.
Failure to hold 4,000 psych exposes the 3,970 prior highs and the 50% impulse fib near 3,973.
A break of the higher-lows trendline from Tuesday's low would end the sequence that has carried the move.
12:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalling at week high · RSI 75 · price 4,041.22
Range break above Mon–Tue 3891–3971 box; impulsive higher low at 3917.
Gold spent Monday and Tuesday boxed between the 3891 week open area and a 3970 prior high capped twice in NY hours, before the Democratic Congress sweep hit USD and yields and drove a ~$130 range break from the 3917 rally base through the Asia session into London. Price has since stalled just under the 4049.50 week high on narrowing bars, with RSI(14) overbought and the EMA(20) lagging near 3990. The 4000 round number lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the rally, the first area where a pullback would test the breakout.
Support: 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,049.50
What it said to watch
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot print puts the 4000 round number and 38.2% retrace in play
H1 close above the 4049.50 week high extends the range break into fresh weekly territory
Return below the 3970 prior high puts price back inside the Mon–Tue range and marks the breakout as a false break
Loss of the higher-lows line from Tuesday's 3896 low toward the 3917 rally base breaks the week's rising structure
Gold has carved higher lows at 3896 and 3918 since Friday's 3870 low. The Democratic midterm sweep hit USD and yields during the Asia session, and price cleared the 3970 prior high that capped Monday and Tuesday. The move extended into early London to a week high at 4049.50. Price sits roughly 60 points above EMA(20) near 3984 with RSI(14) near 77 and overbought, and the only pullback since the breakout held at 4014.79, well above the 38.2% fib of Wednesday's impulse near 3999.
Support: 4,014.79, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,049.50, 4,100.00
What it said to watch
ADP 13:15 UTC and ISM Services 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a beat risks a giveback toward the 3970 prior high
Hourly close above the 4049.50 week high keeps the breakout extending, with 4100 round number the next reference
Failure to hold the 4014.79 pullback low and 4000 psych opens the 38.2% fib near 3999 and EMA(20) around 3984
A new high above 4049.50 with lower RSI(14) would mark bearish divergence and fading momentum
10:05 UTC
Uptrend, stretched after Asia breakout · RSI 74 · price 4,042.61
Higher lows since Friday's 3870 low; Mon/Tue 3970 cap broken.
Gold cleared the 3970 area that capped Monday's and Tuesday's NY spikes during Wednesday's Asia session, as the Democratic Congress sweep pulled USD and yields lower. The move extended into London open to a week high at 4048.65, and price now sits just above the thu high at 4039, with higher lows at 3895.5 Tuesday and 3920 in early Asia. Price is about $65 above EMA(20) near 3978 with RSI(14) around 74. The 50% fib of the Tuesday-low impulse lines up with the tue high near 3971, and the 4014.79 pullback low is the nearest intraday reference.
Support: 4,039.31, 4,014.79, 3,971.01
Resistance: 4,048.65
What it said to watch
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot print would revive hike pricing and higher yields
An H1 close back below the thu high, then the 4014.79 pullback low, would point to a deeper retracement toward the 4000 psych area
A break back below the tue high at 3971 (50% fib, EMA(20) nearby) would undercut the breakout read
A higher high above the 4048.65 week high without RSI confirmation would set up rsi divergence (bearish)
A loss of the higher lows trendline from Tuesday's low would break the sequence of higher lows
Higher lows Mon-Wed; Mon/Tue highs near 3971 cleared, testing prior high near 4039.
The week opened at 3892.71 off Friday's 3870 yearly low. Price printed higher lows on Monday and Tuesday while the 3971 breakout level capped both sessions. That cap gave way in Wednesday's Asia session, when midterm results pointing to Democratic control of Congress knocked the USD and yields lower, adding roughly 110 in three bars. Price is now pressing Thursday's 4039 prior high, with RSI(14) in the mid-70s and the only pullback so far holding at 4014.8. Price is well extended above EMA(20).
Support: 4,014.80, 4,000.00, 3,971.00
Resistance: 4,039.30, 4,050.00
What it said to watch
ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; a hot print revives Fed-hike pricing
An H1 close above the 4039 prior high opens the path to the 4050 round number
Failure to hold the 4014.8 pullback low and an H1 close back under 4000 psych would point to a deeper retrace
A slide back to the 3971 breakout level would put the 38.2% fib of the Friday-to-Wednesday move, near 3975, in play
The higher-lows trendline from Tuesday stays intact unless price breaks below about 3935
Higher lows since Tuesday; 3970 double cap cleared.
Wednesday's Asia session broke the 3970 prior high that had capped both Monday's and Tuesday's NY rallies. The Democratic midterm sweep knocked USD and yields lower, and the move carried gold through the 4000 psych level to a 4029 week high, roughly $135 above Tuesday's 3895 low. Price sits about $58 above EMA(20) near 3964 with RSI(14) near 74, overbought after a roughly $95 two-bar leg, and is now back inside Thursday's 4005–4046 range below the thu high.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,917.56
Resistance: 4,029.14, 4,046.30
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 4000 psych level would put the 3970 prior high and the 38.2% fib near 3978 in focus as a retest zone
An H1 close above the 4029 week high exposes the 4046 thu high, the top of the window
Loss of 3970 and the higher-lows line from Tuesday reopens the path toward the 3918 tue low
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC today could materially shift this read; firm prints would test the election-driven USD dip
Range break above the 3971 cap, higher lows since Friday.
Gold broke out of the Monday–Tuesday 3895–3971 range in late Asia session today. Two impulsive H1 bars carried price to an Asia high of 4029 after the Democratic sweep of Congress knocked USD and Treasury yields lower. The 3971 prior high had capped the rebound from Friday's 3870 low twice. It now sits below price alongside Thursday's 4005 low, with EMA(20) trailing near 3955. RSI(14) is overbought near 74 as price returns to Thursday's levels, with Thursday's high at 4046 overhead.
Support: 4,005.00, 3,971.00, 3,955.00
Resistance: 4,029.00, 4,046.00
What it said to watch
Hourly closes back below the 3971 prior high would turn the range break into a false break
A close above the 4046 thu high clears Thursday's range top and extends the rebound
Holding Thursday's 4005 low on any pullback keeps the impulse intact; deeper tests run toward the 38.2% rebound fib near 3968 and ema20 near 3955
ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read; hot prints would revive Fed-hike pricing
Failure to hold above the 4029 Asia high with RSI overbought would leave the move stretched versus ATR near $21
06:05 UTC
Uptrend, impulsive range break · RSI 71 · price 4,003.16
Higher lows since Friday's 3870 low; 3971 double high cleared.
Gold broke out of the week's 3896–3971 range in Wednesday's Asia session. The 05:00 UTC bar ran to a 4009.57 session high and is holding above the 4000 round number, as midterm results handing Democrats Congress pushed USD and yields lower. The impulse extends a run of higher lows from Friday's 3870 yearly low, after rallies into the London-NY transition on Monday and Tuesday both stalled at the 3970–3971 double high, now a broken high below price. RSI(14) near 71 is overbought on the spike, with EMA(20) and EMA(50) converged near 3945, well beneath.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,971.01, 3,945.00
Resistance: 4,009.57, 4,048.18
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 4009.57 session high opens the path to the 4048 prior high from last Thursday
Hourly close back below the 4000 round number leaves the session high as an isolated Asia-session spike
Failure to hold the broken high at 3971, near the 38.2% impulse fib at 3966, returns price to the prior range
A pullback toward ema20 near 3945, inside the 50–61.8% impulse fib zone, tests whether the breakout structure survives
ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; a hot print has room to unwind the election-driven USD drop
A break of the higher lows trendline from Friday's low would undo the week's rising structure
Lower highs vs higher lows inside a 3895–3971 range.
The rebound from Friday's 3870.26 yearly low has twice stalled at 3970–3971 into the NY open, on Monday's oil-driven bounce and Tuesday's spike that faded as the hot JOLTS print lifted yields. Today's Asia spike on the election-driven USD dip also faded, leaving a lower high at the 3964.79 Asia high. Higher lows at the 3895.50 Tuesday low and the 3917.56 Tuesday NY low compress price around the 38.2% of the rebound fib. EMA(20) and EMA(50) sit flat at 3932–3935 and RSI(14) is near 48.
Support: 3,917.56, 3,895.50, 3,870.26
Resistance: 3,964.79, 3,971.01
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 3964.79 Asia high and the lower-highs line puts the 3971.01 week high back in play
Loss of the Tuesday NY low at 3917.56 breaks the higher-lows line, exposing the 3895.50 Tuesday low and the 3870.26 yearly low
ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
Senate control calls in the midterm count are a source of USD and yield swings through the session
03:04 UTC
Basing after Friday's liquidation low, rebounds capped near 3970 · RSI 52 · price 3,934.09
3895–3971 range, lower highs vs higher lows compressing.
Friday's NY-session liquidation hit a yearly low at 3870.26. Gold has since rebounded above the 3892.71 weekly open, and NY-hours spikes on Monday and Tuesday both stalled at 3970–3971. That is an unconfirmed double top near the 50% retrace of the 4068–3870 decline, and the Tuesday rejection extended after the JOLTS beat lifted yields. Wednesday's Asia high at 3964.79 printed a lower high as the midterm-driven USD dip faded. Price now sits between EMA(20) at ~3931 and the ema50 at ~3939, with RSI(14) flat near 52, while the swing low at 3917.56 holds above the 3895.50 Tuesday low.
Support: 3,917.56, 3,895.50, 3,870.26
Resistance: 3,938.80, 3,964.79, 3,971.01
What it said to watch
H1 close above 3971 invalidates the double top and clears the 50% cap of the decline
Break of the 3917.56 swing low snaps the higher-low line and exposes the 3895.50 Tuesday low, the double-top neckline
Loss of 3895.50 would put the 3870.26 yearly low back in play
Sustained hold above the ema50 at ~3939 would shift attention back to the 3964.79 asia high
ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) today, plus midterm results, could materially shift this read
02:05 UTC
Rebounding off Friday's low, now range-bound · RSI 55 · price 3,947.43
3895–3971 range with flat range top and higher lows since Tuesday.
Friday's NY-session liquidation ran to 3870.26. Monday's NY-open rebound tagged 3970, and price has since been held in a 3895–3971 range: Tuesday's spike to the 3971 range top met rejection and faded through NY hours after the JOLTS beat lifted yields, before holding the tuesday low at 3895.5. In the Asia session today, early midterm tallies knocked the dollar lower and price spiked to a 3965 asia high, a third cap below the range top. Price sits back above the ema20 (~3933) and EMA(50) (~3936), the higher lows trendline from Tuesday is intact, and RSI(14) is near 55.
Support: 3,932.60, 3,917.56, 3,895.50
Resistance: 3,964.79, 3,971.01
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 3971 range top breaks the range read; a third failure at the asia high/range top zone keeps the lower highs cap in place
Loss of the ema20 and the 3918 swing low breaks the higher lows trendline and puts the 3895 tuesday low back in focus, with the 61.8% rebound fib near 3909 ahead of it
ADP (13:15 UTC), S&P Global PMI (14:45 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read
Midterm results in play through today: a confirmed Democratic sweep vs a split Congress changes the USD channel
01:04 UTC
Range after Friday's sell-off, intraday lower highs · RSI 52 · price 3,931.94
3891–3971 range since Monday, compressing between lower highs and higher lows.
Since Monday's open gold has held a 3891–3971 range above Friday's liquidation-driven yearly low at 3870.26, with twin highs near 3970 capping NY-session rallies on both Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday's NY spike to 3971.01 was rejected within the hour as JOLTS and Factory Orders beats lifted yields, and price has since printed lower highs into the Asia session. It now sits near 3932 at the 38.2% fib, pinned between EMA(20) ~3929 and EMA(50) ~3934, with RSI(14) neutral near 52 and the ny low at 3917.56 just above the 50% fib.
Support: 3,917.56, 3,895.50, 3,870.26
Resistance: 3,940.47, 3,950.00, 3,971.01
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 3940.47 asia high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 3950 round number
Loss of the 3917.56 ny low exposes the 3895.50 tuesday low and the higher-lows trendline
A break below 3895.50 would turn the twin highs into a double top, with the 3870.26 yearly low next
Midterm results, then ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) today, could materially shift this read
3896–3971 range since Monday open; higher low vs Friday's 3870.
Friday's liquidation decline from Thursday's 4068 high bottomed at the 3870 yearly low. Since Monday's open, H1 has rotated in a 3896–3971 range, and two first-hour-of-NY spikes on Monday and Tuesday were rejected at the 50% retracement, leaving a double top near 3971. Tuesday's JOLTS and Factory Orders beats and firmer yields capped the second spike, but the London-session Tuesday low at 3896 held above Friday's low. Price now sits just above EMA(20) near 3931 and a flat EMA(50), with RSI(14) at a neutral 51 and the Tue NY low at 3917.6 marking the nearest floor.
Support: 3,917.60, 3,896.30, 3,870.30
Resistance: 3,948.00, 3,971.00
What it said to watch
H1 close below the Tue NY low at 3917.6 puts the Tuesday low at 3896 back in focus
Break of 3896 undercuts the higher-low line and reopens the 3870 yearly low
Close above the Tuesday open at 3948 (38.2% of the 4068–3870 decline) brings the 3971 double top back into play
Midterm results overnight, then ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC Wednesday, could materially shift this read